Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Andrews, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 19, 2018 11:53 PM EDT (03:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:51AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1008 Pm Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
Overnight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1008 Pm Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A warm front south of the waters this evening lift north overnight. A series of weak lows will impact the area Tuesday through late Wednesday with gusty offshore winds developing mid-week in the wake of a developing low pressure off the mid-atlantic coast. High pressure will build in Thursday through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Andrews, SC
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location: 33.5, -79.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200157
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
957 pm edt Mon mar 19 2018

Low pressure will move east toward the carolinas on Tuesday, dragging
a cold front through Tuesday night as it tracks northeast and
deepens off the north carolina coast. Possible strong to severe
thunderstorms will occur ahead of the low on Tuesday with
potential for a few flurries in the mix as colder air moves in
on the back end on Wednesday. Cold and dry high pressure will
extend down into the carolinas Thursday and Friday. The weekend
may become unsettled and remain cooler, with clouds and periods
of rain possibly through early next week.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 930 pm Monday... 01z surface analysis show low pressure
centered over middle tn and north-central al, with a warm front
extending to just south of charleston, sc. The low will track
east-northeast through the remainder of the overnight, as the
warm front lifts north. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with the surface low will track across the forecast area between
09z-12z, and although they should be weakening with diminishing
upper support, the presence of shear along the warm front will
necessitate a close watch for potential rotation.

After a lull in activity in the 12z-18z window, a vigorous mid-
level trough and associated surface cold front will approach
from the west in the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. This
will give the atmosphere an opportunity to destabilize, with
surface-based CAPE values reaching 1500-2000 j kg. SPC has
included the CWA in an slight to enhanced risk of severe storms
for Tuesday afternoon, noting the possibility of a few
tornadoes considering the amount of low-level wind shear.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Complex storm system will be exiting the
area albeit slowly through the period. The latest guidance has
shown a considerable drying trend with precipiation through the
period. It appears the mid level cyclone will just be pulling in
too much dry air to allow any significant showers to develop.

Overall I have trended pops down through the period.

Temperature guidance continues to show some differences but in
general maintained a blend.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Although I would not discount a few
flurries as potent shortwave swings through the back end of the
upper trough early thurs, the moisture will be very limited.

Therefore will not include any pcp in forecast early thurs
morning as upper trough swings off the coast. CAA continues
through thurs into Friday in strong NW flow as high pressure
builds in from the north. The 850 temps drop down around -4c and
do not return above 0c until sat. Temps will drop into the 30s
most places with some frost or freeze potential in spots again
early Fri morning. Temps both thurs and Fri may not reach above
60. Low pressure system will brush the carolinas Fri night into
sat as it moves toward the mid atlantic coast. This will produce
increase in clouds and greater chc of rain across the area late
fri into early sat. The latest model runs show a possible wedge
type scenario setting up for the weekend with clouds and periods
of rain possible. Overall, the weather may turn out to be cooler
and more unsettled than originally forecast.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 23z... The next 24 hours should be a roller coaster, especially
for the coast. The first batch of convection will be associated with
the warm front which will move through the region through the
overnight hours. The hrrr model has some pretty rigorous convection
hitting the western CWA around 08z, rolling to the coast by 10z.

Gusty southwest winds and brief ifr visibilities in heavy showers
are possible. Thunder can not be ruled out, but the convection will
likely weaken as it nears the coast.

Tuesday, a possible wild day in store as the cold front approaches
from the west. The convection will be strongest near the coast, as
it will have the best moisture and possible sea breeze interaction.

Strong thunderstorms are possible as we are in a favorable region
for convection with strong shear, with moderate CAPE and helicity.

Extended outlook... Periods of MVFR ifr through Wednesday.

Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 930 pm Monday... A weak pressure gradient is in place
across the waters this evening on the north side of a warm
front, which will progress north overnight. Winds will remain
light, generally 10 knots or less, and mainly east-southeast
until the front lifts through after midnight. At that point,
winds will become south to southwest and increase to 15 knots,
and shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to be moving
off the coast in the few hours before sunrise.

Conditions will deteriorate Tuesday, as SW winds pick-up ahead
of a cold front. An advisory may not be needed but a few lines
of showers, and even strong tstms could impact the 0-20 nm
waters Tuesday morning, and again in the afternoon. Mariners can
expect SW gusts near 20 kt Tuesday, outside of showers and
tstms. Seas will build to 3-5 ft Tuesday afternoon, and an
'exercise caution' headline may be needed. A radar update is
recommended before venturing out, as some storms may become
capable of gusts in excess of 35 kt Tuesday morning and again in
the afternoon.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Expect a rough and tumble period for the marine
community. A complex storm system will be exiting the area with
initially gusty southwest winds. The winds will shift to northwest
by Wednesday evening but the speeds will remain elevated in a 20-25
knot range. Some guidance is showing higher winds and subsequent
shifts may need to increase the wind forecast with gales a
possibility. Not surprisingly considering the winds, seas are
expected to be high from 4-8 feet with the higher values across the
outer waters.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Cold and dry high pressure will extend
down over the local waters thurs through Saturday. Strong off
shore flow up to 15 to 20 kts early thurs will weaken and become
more northerly through the period down to 10 kt or less by sat.

This will allow seas to subside from close to 3 to 5 ft early
Thursday down less than 3 ft by Fri aftn into sat.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mjc crm
short term... Shk
long term... Rgz
aviation... Mrr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 18 mi68 min NE 1.9 61°F 1007 hPa60°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 31 mi53 min 1009.6 hPa (-1.4)
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 49 mi45 min E 3.9 G 5.8 57°F 59°F1005.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi58 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F94%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE7E7E7E4E4NE3E3E3CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmE4E6SE5E5E4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoSW7SW6SW6SW7SW7SW7W8W4W5W6NW6N10
2 days agoN7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W6W10

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Mon -- 03:19 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:04 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:44 PM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:22 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Black River (south of Dunbar), South Carolina
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Black River (south of Dunbar)
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Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:35 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.