Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:17PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 2:09 AM PDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 12:23AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 848 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft late in the evening, becoming 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 16 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft and S 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 848 Pm Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt, a 1032 mb surface high was over central colorado and an inverted trough running up along the coast california coast to eureka.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 170623
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1123 pm pdt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis 16 819 pm.

Weak offshore flow will keep high temperatures above normal and
continued clear skies through late in the week. There will be a
chance for some dense fog developing along the central coast over
the next few nights. Stronger santa ana winds could develop late
this week with a slight chance of rain possible for some interior
locations late this weekend.

Short term (tue-fri) 16 813 pm.

Today was a chamber of commerce day across southern california
with sunny skies and breezy conditions. There were low end
advisory level winds affecting the wind prone santa ana wind
areas this afternoon. Wind advisories were allowed to expire
earlier this afternoon and offshore winds were pretty weak this
evening overall. Sundowner winds have picked up this evening
across the western portion of the santa barbara south coast and
adjacent santa ynez mountains. Refugio and gaviota were gusting in
the mid 30s, but should diminish some late this evening. Except
for a few degrees of cooling today along the immediate coast of
l.A. And ventura counties today, most inland areas warmed up 3 to
6 degrees. Highs reached the mid 80s across most valleys and
much of the oxnard plain with a few degrees cooler across the l.A
beaches away from the coast. The central coast was around 6
degrees warmer than normal thanks to the morning offshore winds
that turned onshore late this morning.

There will be little change in the forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday except that the offshore winds should weaken a bit each
late night through morning hours. This will allow valleys to warm
up an additional few degrees over the next couple of days. The
seabreeze should kick in earlier over the next two days as well
which will cause the coastal areas to cool a few degrees, yet
remain warmer than normal across inland coastal areas affected by
the offshore winds. Wind protected valleys will continue to get
chilly at night with lows in the 30s and 40s. With the offshore
gradients weakening over the next few days, there will be a chance
that dense fog develops across the central coast tonight and once
again Wed night into Thursday morning.

***from previous discussion***
on Friday offshore flow will pick up again as high pressure
strengthens over nevada following the passage of an upper low.

Gradients with this event should be at least a couple mb weaker
than yesterday and upper support will be weaker as well so at this
point we're looking at a low end wind advisory situation at best
for valleys and mountains and probably just below advisory level
for ventura coast and malibu areas. Since this next event will not
have as much cold air behind it temps will be warmer than they
have been with highs jumping into the lower 90s in the valleys and
close to 90 for la ventura coastal zones. Humidities also not
quite as dry Friday so probably not a red flag situation either
but certainly elevated fire concerns given this ongoing long
duration offshore period.

Long term (sat-tue) 16 140 pm.

Offshore flow with this next event expected to peak Saturday
morning at around 5mb if models remain consistent until then. That
would still put it a notch weaker than the event we just had so
low end wind advisories may be needed late Friday into Saturday
for valleys and mountains. One last day of warming Saturday for
coast valleys before onshore trends start knocking temps down sun
into early next week.

One factor to keep an eye on for this weekend is the possibility
of some moisture getting picked up from the southeast by an upper
low that is expected to develop off the coast Saturday. The gfs
has been consistent showing this the last few days, but it's not
a lot of moisture and the air mass isn't that unstable. Pwats peak
out at around .5-.75" in our area and there's not much moisture
below 10k ft so it's not a classic monsoon push by any means.

Can't really argue with a slight chance of thunderstorms for
la ventura mountains late Sat and Sun but unless models show more
moisture and or instability with this about the most we'd see is
maybe a few sprinkles. A high percentage of the GEFS members
support at least .01" falling by Sunday across extreme eastern la
county, however the ECMWF is considerably less excited. Hard to
pick out a favorite but it seems justified to keep the small pops
going for now.

Aviation 17 0620z.

At 0550z at klax there was no marine layer nor any inversion.

High confidence in cavu tafs, except for ksmx where there is a 40
percent chc of lifr cig vis 10z-16z.

Klax... High confidence in cavu taf. The east wind component
should remain under 8 kt.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 16 103 pm.

Outer waters... Good confidence in current forecast. There is a
20% chance of SCA level wind gusts this afternoon evening.

Inner waters north of point sal... High confidence in current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through Friday.

Inner waters south of point conception... The SCA has been
cancelled. Local gusts to 20-25 kt are possible. Otherwise, the
winds will remain below SCA through the week.

Fire weather 16 1241 pm.

The red flag warnings for the coastal areas, as well as the
interior areas of san luis obispo and santa barbara counties were
canceled for today. The winds will not be strong enough for red
flag, but very dry conditions will maintain elevated concerns. The
remaining red flag warnings will expire at 8pm this evening, with
no plans to extend them.

The gusty santa ana winds continue today, but have weakened and
shrunk in coverage from yesterday. Wind gusts between 30 and 50
mph should be expected in the wind prone valleys and mountains of
los angeles and ventura counties. The strongest winds will be in
the late morning and early afternoon hours. Relative humidities
will be slightly higher than yesterday, but still very dry with
minimums generally in the 5 to 10 percent range away from the
coast. The winds and humidities will improve slowly each day
through Thursday but remain locally breezy and dry. So while the
most extreme red flag conditions are not expected past today,
elevated fire weather conditions will remain. Winds will boost
some on Friday and Saturday, and there is a small chance for
critical conditions.

This is remains a dangerous situation. The public needs to use
extreme caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large
fires have been started by things like discarded cigarettes,
campfires, welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging
trailer chains. Be prepared for power outages and be ready to
evacuate if you live in the urban-wildland interface.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
Elevated fire weather conditions expected through the period with
locally gusty offshore winds, low humidities, warm temperatures,
and dry fuels are expected through at least Saturday. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the mountains
and antelope valley late Saturday through late Sunday.

Public... Kaplan mw
aviation... Asr
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... Delerme ck
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi40 min 65°F2 ft
46262 23 mi40 min 68°F3 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi40 min 65°F1017 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi40 min 66°F3 ft
AGXC1 25 mi40 min NNW 5.1 G 6 64°F 1016.8 hPa
46253 25 mi40 min 65°F3 ft
PFDC1 26 mi40 min NW 5.1 G 5.1
PXAC1 27 mi40 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi30 min N 12 G 14 67°F 68°F1016.1 hPa63°F
46256 27 mi40 min 65°F2 ft
PSXC1 28 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 6
BAXC1 28 mi46 min NNW 6 G 7
PFXC1 28 mi40 min N 4.1 G 4.1 65°F
PRJC1 29 mi40 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi40 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 65°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA14 mi19 minNNW 410.00 miFair71°F19°F14%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from AVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W7SW7SW6SW5SW3S5----NE63--------W11SW8W8W11--W6NW4N6NW4
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2 days agoW9SW6SW5SW4SW4SW3SW4W3CalmN3N3N4N3W6SW9W7SW6SW6SW4SW5W4W7NW6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
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Wed -- 12:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM PDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:01 PM PDT     2.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:12 PM PDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.62.22.83.33.73.83.73.53.232.933.33.63.94.143.73.12.51.71.1

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, Santa Catalina Island, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.