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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 954 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Patchy drizzle after midnight. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. S swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Wed night - W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. S swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog and drizzle after midnight. Thu - W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog and drizzle in the morning.Thu night - Western portion, W winds 15 to 25 kt. Elsewhere, W winds 10 to 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog and drizzle after midnight.Fri - W winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog and drizzle in the morning. Fri night - Western portion, W winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt becoming nw 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt late. Elsewhere, W winds 20 to 30 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft. Sat - W winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.

PZZ600 954 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 04z, or 9 pm pdt, a 1025 mb high pressure was 1000 nm sw of eureka, california, and a 1000 mb low was over utah and new mexico.

FXUS66 KLOX 240546 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1046 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
23/749 PM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will maintain much cooler than normal temperatures across much of Southwest California through at least Friday. Areas of night through morning fog and drizzle are expected across the coast, valleys, and foothills, with only partial afternoon clearing. Warmer weather is expected by the weekend into early next week.

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/834 PM.

***UPDATE***

The only real forecast challenge for the evening update is the evolution of the marine layer clouds and potential for drizzle.
With fairly widespread drizzle from the coast and inland to the interior mountain slopes last night into this morning, see no reason why that will not happen again. Heights aloft will lower overnight as a closed low system approaches the coast, and onshore flow will continue, so expect good inland progression of low clouds in the deep marine layer. With the added boost of good lift over the hills, expect to see drizzle fairly widespread again, with patches of heavy drizzle likely.

Clearing potential for Wednesday is another interesting issue.
Today we saw reverse clearing, with coastal areas scattering out while clouds lingered over the valleys and hills. Would not be surprised to see another day of reverse clearing Wednesday, with gusty onshore winds through the interior passes and canyons into the Antelope Valley. There is also a small chance that the marine layer will deepen enough that the layer falls apart, with clearing everywhere. As for winds, the 00Z gradients from LAX to Daggett will be somewhat stronger Wednesday afternoon so expect gusts between 35 to 45 mph to be common, and 50 mph at Lake Palmdale.

***From Previous Discussion***

There is low confidence in how the marine layer will behave Wednesday now that the it's so deep. The most likely outcome is another day very similar to today, with (not so) low clouds reforming overnight in most areas then another reverse clearing pattern tomorrow. Most of the high res forecast models favor this scenario along with some pockets of drizzle, especially near the south facing foothills. However, the next upper low will be quickly approaching the area Wednesday with an arrival expected Wednesday night into Thursday. So some additional cooling aloft is expected that could either reinforce the marine layer or potentially weaken it enough to where it clears out more completely in the afternoon. In any case, temperatures will remain well below normal with some breezy but again sub-advisory level winds across interior areas.

With the arrival of the upper low Wednesday night into Thursday morning, chances for more widespread drizzle or light rain increase. But with northwest flow following the trough passage Thursday afternoon that should help generate better clearing.
Increasing west to northwest winds expected in the afternoon and evening with wind advisories possible for some coastal areas and interior areas as well.

Yet another trough quickly follows for Friday, though models have been tracking this one more inland. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with some gusty west to northwest winds but minimal chances for precip, except possibly across the northern mountains and interior SLO County. Still low confidence in the low cloud coverage but the most likely outcome is for less clouds across coast and valleys. Temperatures will remain below normal but should be 3-6 degrees warmer than Thursday.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...23/153 PM.

The warming trend that started Friday is expected to continue into early next week with weakening onshore flow and minimal, if any, marine layer stratus. Temperatures should be back to normal levels over the weekend and sneaking a few degrees above normal by Monday. Some cooling then expected Tuesday that will likely continue through the rest of next week as yet another cold upper low drops out of the Pac NW.

AVIATION
24/0545Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 5300 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

Low to moderate confidence for coastal/valley TAFs and high confidence for desert TAFs. The low clouds will reform in a fairly haphazard manor. There is a 30 percent chc that KSBA will have MVFR cigs through 17Z. Good confidence that cigs will remain in MVFR range. Low confidence in VFR transition which could be off by as much as 2 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. No east wind component is expected. Low clouds may not arrive until 09Z-10Z. There is a 30 percent chc that cigs will remain under 030 through 17Z. Good confidence that there will be no east wind component.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Low clouds could arrive any time between 08Z-13Z. Cigs hgts will likely fall somewhere between 015 and 020. VFR conds likely by 19Z but SCT conds may hold off until 22Z.

MARINE
23/1011 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday afternoon, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
For Thursday through Sunday, high confidence in combination of SCA level winds and seas. Across the two southern outer water zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds Thursday and Friday afternoon/night.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday night, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
For Thursday through Friday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. For Saturday and Sunday, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Winds are increasing through the Santa Barbara Channel tonight and the current SCA looks on track.
Expecting a break in the winds Wednesday morning, with a high chance (60-80%) for SCA winds Wednesday afternoon/evening for both inner waters zones. Winds will pick back up Thursday morning for the SBA channel (with a 20-30% chance of Gale force winds on Thursday), and reaching the waters south of Point Mugu Thursday afternoon. SCA wind or seas will last much of the time Thursday through Saturday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Catalina Harbor
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Wed -- 04:39 AM PDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:25 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:48 AM PDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:56 PM PDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:09 PM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
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Catalina Harbor, California, Tide feet

Catalina Harbor, Santa Catalina Island, California, Tide feet

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