Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday March 23, 2019 1:23 PM EDT (17:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 8:11AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 850 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 850 Am Edt Sat Mar 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will bring calming seas and winds this weekend. Winds will increase Sunday night into Monday before a cold front moves into the area. The next chance for small craft advisory conditions will be Tuesday through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231307
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
907 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will progress east across the area through Sunday
leading to a gradual warmup. A cold front late Monday will bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Another high will build in
from the west for the remainder of next week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 900 am Saturday... No significant changes are needed to
the forecast for day as dry high pressure builds in the region.

12z sounding from mhx showed very dry air lurking only 4000 feet
up. As soon as mixing height surpass 4000 feet look for
dewpoints to crash into at least the lower 20s. Temperatures,
winds, and sky forecasts look good. Discussion from 300 am
follows...

main forecast concern is for area low temperatures tonight
could bring frost tonight and even freezing temperatures for
north carolina along and north of highway 74.

High pressure is forecast to continue to progress across the
forecast area today and tonight, with the center of the high
beginning to move offshore Sunday. Dry conditions are expected
through the period with fairly light winds from the north west
today, with winds going close to calm tonight. High temperatures
today will be in the low to mid 60s, which is slightly cooler than
normal. With calm winds and clear skies tonight, temperatures are
expected to radiationally cool fast with temperatures dropping near
to slightly above freezing, which will bring chances for frost that
could potentially affect outdoor plants and crops. There is even a
chance that temperatures could drop near to below freezing for
locations in pender county under clear skies tonight.

Winds will shift to the south southwest Sunday, which will tap
into warmer air and increase high temperatures into the upper
60s to lower 70s.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... Broad mid-level trough develops over
the southeast during the period. High sitting over bermuda sun
night shifts northeast Mon as the mid level pattern becomes more
amplified. Shortwave digging into the base of the trough late
mon into Mon night will sharpen up the trough, inducing weak
cyclogenesis along a front slowly crossing the area late in the
period. Weak shortwave and increased mid-level moisture pass
just northwest of the area Mon morning and this may lead to some
weak isolated showers during the first half of mon. However,
the best precip chances will be later Mon into tue, as the
stronger wave arrives and weak surface low starts to develop.

Strong warm advection will keep temperatures well above climo
sun night and Mon with temperatures ending up a couple degrees
above climo as cold advection sets up a little too late in the
period.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 am Saturday... Showers may linger in the region on tue
as strong shortwave crosses the area. Any convection will come
to an end by Tue evening as post wave subsidence takes over.

Broad 5h trough in the wake of the wave will slowly shift east
wed into Thu as high pressure builds in from the west.

Progressive mid-level flow sets up late in the week with the
surface high retreating northeast late Thu into fri.

-only rainfall chances will be on Tue as shortwave crosses the area.

-cloud cover and weak cold advection Tue will keep temps below climo.

-cool and dry air mass builds in by Wed with temps well below climo
into thu. Air mass modifies Thu but temps below climo continue.

-modifying air mass coupled with weak warm advection will lead
to temps near to slightly above climo fri.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... High pressure over the area will maintain clear skies
andVFR throughout the period. A deep mixed layer on Saturday will
keep winds around 10 knots from the nw. High pressure directly
overhead will lead to calm winds overnight as the bl decouples.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected Saturday afternoon
through early next week as high pressure builds over the area.

Marine
As of 900 am Saturday... The only significant change to today's
marine forecast was to lower seas significantly nearshore based
on 8 am observations from the nearshore cormp buoys which were
all in the 2 to 2.5 foot range. Larger seas (5 ft) that
continue offshore at the frying pan shoals buoy should also
diminish throughout the day as lighter offshore winds continue.

Discussion from 300 am follows...

small craft advisory continues until 6 am this morning as
conditions are slowly winding down offshore. As high pressure
approaches, seas and winds will calm for the rest of the
weekend. Main wave groups are expected to be from the north
between 4 and 6 seconds, with small southwest swell between 6
and 8 seconds and small easterly swell between 10 and 12 seconds
today. Very little wave activity for Sunday.

Southwest flow will gradually increase Sun night and Mon as surface
high over bermuda moves away from the region and the gradient
becomes more defined. Speeds increase from around 10 kt Sun night to
a solid 15 kt later mon. Seas respond by increasing from 2 ft or
less Sun night to 2 to 3 ft Mon afternoon.

Winds decrease and veer to west-northwest as a cold front moves into
the area. Offshore flow is initially weak but cold advection starts
to increase late Tue and continues Tue night and Wed with northeast
winds running 20 to 25 kt at times. Seas around 3 ft Tue morning
build during the day, reaching 4 to 7 ft late Tue through wed.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Frost advisory from 2 am to 9 am edt Sunday for ncz087-096.

Freeze watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for
ncz105-106.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Iii
near term... Tra mck
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi99 min N 7 57°F 1024 hPa24°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi76 min N 9.7 G 14 57°F 59°F1023.5 hPa
41108 47 mi24 min 60°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi28 minNW 13 G 1610.00 miFair62°F14°F15%1024.2 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi31 minNNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair63°F16°F16%1023.8 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi49 minWNW 55.00 miFair with Haze59°F14°F17%1024.7 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Sat -- 03:54 AM EDT     -1.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:03 AM EDT     5.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:31 PM EDT     6.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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42.20.4-0.8-1.2-0.70.72.445.25.65.34.22.61-0.3-0.9-0.70.423.75.15.96

Tide / Current Tables for Springmaid Pier, Atlantic Ocean, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.