Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:14PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 3:02 AM EST (08:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 207 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then a chance of showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 207 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the coast overnight with a cold front expected to push off the coast during today. High pressure will return Wednesday. A coastal trough will develop Thursday ahead of another cold front that will move across the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 130719
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
200 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
An area of low pressure will lift northward this morning dragging a
lingering front, just inland of the coast, back off shore. A strong
cold front will follow later today with unsettled conditions
persisting as another area of low pressure develops over the
southeast through mid week. Much drier and cooler weather will
return as high pressure builds in behind this system Friday into the
weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 200 am Tuesday... Tornado watch was issued for nc coastal zones
including new hanover, brunswick and pender counties until 8 am.

H5 trough in place from the great lakes lags southwestward into the
central plains and nm. The orientation of the trough will direct
deep moisture across the southeast united states. Meanwhile, closer
to home, a warm front has moved inland, generally from near murrells
inlet to cre myr and across southeast brunswick county to near surf
city, this evening. This boundary will move a little farther inland
allowing temperatures to increase to its east ahead of the wave
expected to pass by later tonight. The developing area of low
pressure will move quickly northeast and bring a period of moderate
to heavy rainfall, as well as a risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms. The low-level shear and instability could increase
enough overnight for a few storms to produce locally damaging winds
or possibly a tornado. SPC continues to highlight a marginal risk
generally east of i-95 with a slight risk for coastal portions of
southeast nc.

The aforementioned boundary will finally shift back of the coast
during Tuesday as a cold front with a surface ridge attempting to re-
assert itself across the carolinas. A roller coast with low
temperatures across the area tonight. Since cold air advection will
be lacking initially in the wake of the front Tuesday temperatures
will likely be at or above normal along the coast and at or below
normal farther inland.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 315 pm Monday... In the mid-levels the area will continue in
the southwesterly flow as a cut-off low breaks off the main tough
axis centered over hudson bay and the cut-off low moves to the great
state of arkansas by Wednesday night. With this pattern, the deep
moisture will be available throughout. In this period the main front
will be off the coast and cold air damming we reestablish itself so
the period will continue to have chance of precipitation with the
best chance Wednesday night as isentropic lift increase again over
the high pressure damming up against the mountains. High
temperatures will remain below normal with cloud cover, & cooler
air. Lows will be from around to the upper 40s with a 50 degree
temperatures on the beaches.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 315 pm Monday... Extended guidance is stable with regards to
the storm system Thursday, which is really the only system of
note for our area during the period. Mid level low pressure will
be ejecting out of the tennessee valley with good diffluence
aloft with lower level isentropic lift teaming up to bring
another decent rainfall event to the area. The GFS hints at some
dry air intrusion wrapping around the system while the ecmwf
keeps conditions a bit more saturated. By Friday the system is
long gone with a west to occasionally northwest mid level flow
ensuing. Surface high pressure will move across the area through
Saturday with a reinforcing dry cold front later in the
weekend. Overall temperatures are not too far from climatology,
a little on the cool side early Saturday however.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 06z... A warm front pushed on shore and was running midway
between inland terminals and coastal terminals. Wedge of cool dense
air will hold inland through the overnight hours. A deepening low
will move northeast through this morning. Convection will continue
with vcts and possible tsra mainly at ilm, as most of the stronger
convection will remain just off shore. As low lifts north through
this morning winds will shift to the west leaving a shallow cooler
air mass spreading eastward toward the coast. This will be enhanced
later today as a winds shift around to the north as high pressure
builds down behind cold front. A deep low over the deep south, will
maintain deep SW flow aloft. This will produce low clouds and
drizzle and rain over all terminals this afternoon into this
evening. Overall any MVFR ceilings east of the front this morning
will become widespread ifr across all terminals through the end of
taf forecast period.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr continuing through Wed and thurs as
another low pressure system lifts across the southeast through mid
week, leaving unsettled weather.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 715 pm Monday... Strong southeast winds prevail across the
coastal waters in the regime east of the warm front that has
recently pushed inland. The strong onshore fetch has allowed seas to
increase to 6 to 8 ft. Additional veering of the wind is expected
overnight as an area of low pressure rides by to the northeast. By
Tuesday morning southwest flow will prevail and lesser speeds given
a weaker pressure gradient. During late Tuesday afternoon the old
front will shift offshore as a cold front allowing for northwesterly
winds.

Seas will subside some during Tuesday, but that trend will be short-
lived.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 315 pm Monday... At 12 utc Tuesday and low along front will
have shifted north and the northwest to northerly flow will slowly
shift the front off the coast and it will move well offshore on
Wednesday. As the low shifts north it will deepen which will bring
in cold high pressure and a strong northeast winds of 25 knots will
increase on Wednesday. There is a small window where the winds and
seas will be below small craft values on Tuesday but will return on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seas will build back to 6 to 8 feet
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 315 pm Sunday... Northeast winds will be in place much of the
day Thursday as a storm system moves across well inland. The front
associated with the system will turn winds to the northwest late in
the day and this direction will persist basically through the
remainder of the period. Winds speeds will be somewhat elevated via
the strength of the storm system gradient initially and decent cold
air advection over warmer waters later. Expect 15-20 knots Thursday
and Friday with 10-15 knots Saturday. Some higher seas will be
around Thursday likely eclipsing small craft criteria dropping back
slowly with the fetch change and decrease in wind speeds Friday and
Saturday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Tuesday for
amz250-252-254- 256.

Near term... Srp
short term... Rh
long term... Shk
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi78 min SSW 4.1 69°F 1015 hPa69°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi55 min SW 12 G 18 70°F 66°F1016.4 hPa
41108 47 mi33 min 68°F6 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi67 minS 810.00 miLight Rain70°F68°F93%1015.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi70 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1015.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi88 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N8N9N9N8N10NE11N8NE10N7NW6N10N9N8N6CalmSE15
G21
SE13S12S12S10--S11S8
1 day agoN7N8N10N9N8N12N10NE13N9N11N12N7N9N9N8NE6NE7NE6NE8NE7N7N9NE6N9
2 days agoNW8NW11
G17
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G22
N12N13N12N14--N10N6N5NE9N8N8N9N8N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Tue -- 04:39 AM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EST     5.33 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:34 PM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.52.61.71.111.52.33.24.24.95.35.24.63.72.61.71.21.21.72.43.344.4

Tide / Current Tables for Springmaid Pier, Atlantic Ocean, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.