Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Surfside Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:19PM Friday July 28, 2017 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 10:55PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1015 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft this afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1015 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift farther offshore through today. A strong cold front will approach from the nw tonight and push across the local waters and offshore during Sat. High pressure will follow late Sunday thru the early to mid-week period of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Surfside Beach, SC
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location: 33.58, -78.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 281424
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1020 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
Thunderstorms will become more numerous this evening and overnight
and likely persisting well into Saturday until the unseasonably
strong cold front pushes thru late in the day or early evening.

Drier and cooler air will follow in the wake of this
system Sunday through early next week, with a warming trend to
normal summer heat by the mid to late week period of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am Friday... The severe weather threat appears diminished
over the course of the period. SPC has removed us from all but
general thunder. In fact rain chances today appear to be a bit lower
(slower) than previously thought at least according to the incoming
12z wrf, which keeps us largely rain-free through 00z. May factor
these changes into future updates after viewing the 12z GFS and a
few more updates of the hi res models. But given that insolation may
be rather inhibited by mid cloud today the drier trend seems
plausible.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 400 am Friday... Convection will be ongoing at the start of
this period. The worse of the thunderstorm activity having
already occurred during the past evening and overnight but
enough dynamics to support a good chance to likely pops.

Vigorous and potent mid- level close low to drop to the mid-
atlantic states Sat night. As it does so, flow aloft will help
drive the cold front east and south of the area by late
Saturday. The pcpn will end as the cold front moves across the
area. Decent drying occurs in the mid and upper levels Sat night
into Sunday, however plenty of low level moisture to keep
stratocu cloudiness going Sat night into Sunday with a partly to
mostly cloudy sky condition. The closed low opens up Sunday
with the mid-level trof axis progged to swing across the fa late
sun morning thru Sunday evening. The cold pool aloft, excellent
pva and plenty of low level moisture, all will combine to
produce mostly cloudy skies with showers, and the possibility of
thunderstorms. Thus, a low chance pop will be required. With
the freezing level progged to drop as well as wbzs, pea sized
hail is a possibility with the storms that are able to develop
in the vertical, which will be difficult given the dry air
aloft. Will see a downward trend in temps including both maxes
and mins. Thus, for Sunday highs will only range from 80-85 and
sun night lows will see widespread 60s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Chief headline this period 'early taste
of fall' as both t TD fall below normal for late july Sunday
onward, before a warmup to near normal values by Wednesday or
Thursday. Daybreak Sunday a seasonably robust cold front will be
positioned offshore, while canadian high pressure centered over
the great lakes exerts itself SE into the carolinas. The air
mass change will ring of an early fall feel with dewpoints
dipping deep into the 60s, erasing any muggy feel to the air.

Lingering low level moisture in wake of the front will result in
periods of cloudiness on north winds and many areas could
struggle to crack 80 degrees Sunday. Low-level drying should
bring plenty sunshine Tuesday onward while a warming trend
unfolds.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z...VFR conditions expected mainly late this morning
thru the afternoon hrs. The exception will be initially this
morning, spotty ifr lifr ceilings across inland terminals that
should scour out by 14z. And, spotty showers along the immediate
coast expected thru 17z, just not enough coverage to warrant
other than vcsh but did include MVFR ceilings. The afternoon
will see occasional CU sc ceilings in the 3k to 5k foot level
but should remain pcpn-less.

Dynamics aloft including the approaching S W trof, and at the
sfc, ie. Pre-frontal trof, and ample moisture with pws
increasing to eventually 2.0+ inches. Will all combine to
produce increasing showers and tstorms that will track from west
to east with storm motions running W at 10 to 20 kt this
evening, and increasing to W at 20 to 30 kt by 12z sat. At this
point have indicated vcts this evening and overnight with prob30
groupings for the actual convection.

Winds generally increasing by midday to s-sw at 5 to 10 kt
inland and becoming S 10 to 15 kt at the coast. Winds will
remain ongoing during tonight with wind directions becoming sw
thruout and speeds around 10 kt with some hier gusts especially
within thunderstorm activity.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr flight restrictions are likely in
thunderstorms ahead and along cold front sat. Some of the
storms may become strong to severe.VFR expected Sunday thru
Tuesday with Sunday possibly seeing brief MVFR from showers
and or ceilings during the aftn.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1020 am Friday... No changes to the forecast so i've left the
previous discussion for now:
as of 300 am Friday... Light S to SW winds will increase as
they veer around to the SW to W as gradient tightens ahead of
an approaching cold front through tonight. Winds should back and
pick up slightly in afternoon sea breeze up to 10 to 15 kts but
winds will become 15 to 25 kts late this evening into the
overnight ahead of front. This will push seas up from 2 to 3 ft
today up to 4 to 6 ft by early Saturday. A small craft advisory
has been raised beginning later this evening. A weak area of low
pressure will produce some isolated convection across the
waters this morning but there will be a lull through late this
afternoon before strong to possibly severe thunderstorms move
across the waters overnight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 400 am Friday... SCA conditions will be ongoing as SW winds
15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, veer to the wsw-w during
Saturday. Significant seas will run 4 to 7 ft with the 7 footers
primarily off CAPE fear. The waters from CAPE fear south to
little river inlet will overall experience the hier seas given
the better fetch associated with westerly winds. Wind speeds
will diminish below SCA thresholds for a period of time
associated with the cold front slowly pushing across the local
waters Sat evening. The sfc pg then tightens again with winds
becoming n-ne at 15 to 25 kt which may require a SCA or a scec
at the minimum. Will see a slight drop in the significant seas
to 3 to 5 ft thruout Sun thru Sun night. The primary driver to
the seas will be wind driven waves with periods around 5 to 6
seconds.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Atypical n-ne winds Sunday through a
good part of Monday in wake of an unseasonably strong cold
frontal passage. Wind direction veers to e-se Monday
afternoon evening and holds from the SE Tuesday. Because of the
unusually strong cell of high pressure pushing in from the nnw,
gusts to 20 kt will become common Sunday and Sunday night,
veering slightly from N to ne, and an 'exercise caution'
headline could be needed Sunday, with 4-5 foot seas outer waters
probable. A few storms early Sunday may be rumbling near the
west wall of the gulf stream and around frying pan shoals.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Saturday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... mbb
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dch
marine... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi45 min 1010.7 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 23 mi78 min WSW 5.1 85°F 1012 hPa74°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 27 mi55 min SSW 9.7 G 12 82°F 83°F1011.3 hPa
SSBN7 28 mi123 min 1 ft
41108 47 mi33 min 82°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi78 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F73°F66%1011.8 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC18 mi70 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F75°F79%1011.4 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC21 mi68 minSW 47.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1011.5 hPa

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Last 24hrSE10--S8SE8SE8S10S9S8S8S8----------------CalmW5W5W6W6SW4
1 day agoE13----------E11E10E10E9E8E7E7E8E5N6N6--CalmCalmSE10S10S10S10
2 days ago--S13----S14--S10SW6SW4W4W3N5CalmN4CalmCalmN3--N5NE7NE9E10E10E12

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Fri -- 05:58 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:20 PM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:15 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.553.92.51.20.3-0.10.31.22.43.74.75.35.24.43.21.90.90.40.61.32.43.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Springmaid Pier, Atlantic Ocean, South Carolina
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Springmaid Pier
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:30 PM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.4542.71.40.4-00.31.12.23.54.65.25.24.63.52.21.10.50.61.22.23.34.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.