Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pell City, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 7:58PM Monday June 18, 2018 4:19 PM CDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:54AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pell City, AL
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location: 33.61, -86.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 181957
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
257 pm cdt Mon jun 18 2018

Short term
Through tonight.

Upper level ridge and warmer temperatures aloft have kept shower
and storm development quite isolated this afternoon. Main area
for development today and this evening will be in an axis around
the mid level ridge, generally near and east of a line from smith
lake to birmingham to eufaula. Cannot rule out a shower or storm
elsewhere, given temperatures across the west have warmed into the
lower 90s. With less rain and cloud coverage today, temperatures
have warmed into the lower 90s across the west, but dewpoints
mixed out into the mid 60s, which has kept heat indices below
100f this afternoon.

Expect activity to diminish this evening and skies clear. Added
patchy fog across the far east where moisture will be slightly
better overnight. Lows will be in the lower 70s tonight.


Long term
Tuesday through Monday.

High pressure strengthens across the region Tuesday as a trough digs
into the central rockies and a tropical moisture plume continues to
be pulled into southern texas. The center of the high pressure will
be in the vicinity of central al through most of the day Tuesday and
into Wednesday morning keeping the area mostly dry as afternoon
convection could be somewhat limited. I can't rule out an isolated
thunderstorm or two, but overall coverage will be less than a
typical summertime day, so have lowered pops to around 20-25% for
most of central al.

As we go into Wednesday, the trough crosses the rockies and develops
a low pressure system in the central plains. This helps to flatten
the ridging across the gulf states. As the ridge flattens and the
high pressure slides southward, that tropical moisture in southern
texas gets pulled in with the warm air advection into the developing
mid-latitude cyclone in the plains. Some of this moisture could be
brought around to our northern counties Wednesday night into
Thursday, allowing for increased coverage of showers and storms, but
the best rain chances remain to our west through Thursday morning.

The GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement for the second half
of the week, showing the low pressure system sliding through the mid-
mississippi valley and into the great lakes region Thursday through
Friday night. A cold front does stretch southward from the center of
the low, but doesn't fully make it into central al before the upper
forcing lifts northward into canada Friday night into Saturday.

Regardless of any frontal forcing for our area, the trough axis does
pass through the tn valley, putting us in an area of synoptic-scale
height falls, which will aid in lift, promoting a higher coverage of
afternoon and overnight showers and storms Thursday through at least
Saturday morning. Given some minor timing differences in the GFS and
ecmwf, i've held off increasing pops to the "likely" category
Thursday and Friday afternoons for now. However, can't rule out
increasing it as we get closer in time. Will also need to continue
watching environmental conditions Thursday and Friday afternoons-
given this time of year when temps are in the 90s with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 70s, instability is already pretty high, so as an
upper trough digs into the vicinity and provides extra synoptic
lift, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few stronger storms
develop. Main concern would be gusty winds (dcape exceeding 1000
j kg) and small hail. With that said, timing is everything with
any chances for strong storms, so considering this is still 4-5
days out, will need to keep an eye on it in coming days.

Ridging builds back in across the gulf states Saturday into Sunday,
leading to relatively drier conditions. GFS is a little more
ambitious with the strength of this ridging when compared to the
ecmwf, so I won't clear out all rain chances at this point. Instead,
will go closer to climatology for Sunday into Monday for the diurnal
rain chances.

25 owen

18z TAF discussion.

Vfr conditions will persist for the majority of the period for
most TAF sites with a chance of isolated showers and storms across
east alabama. Vcts has been included for kasn and kanb due to a
developing cumulus field in the area with showers already forming
near these sites. Winds have already begun to shift
northward northwestward at most sites due to the low level ridge
moving in from the west. Light to calm winds overnight with patchy
fog likely at ktoi, kasn, and kanb in the early morning hours and
ending around 14z.


Fire weather
Lower rain chances for this afternoon and tomorrow, but cannot
rule out at least isolated scattered coverage each afternoon,
especially in the east. Light fog and or low clouds are possible
each morning, and most likely will be near locations that receive
rainfall the previous day evening. Rh values remain well above
critical values. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 69 92 72 91 73 20 20 10 30 20
anniston 70 93 72 92 73 20 20 10 30 20
birmingham 73 94 73 92 74 10 20 10 30 20
tuscaloosa 72 94 74 94 75 10 20 10 30 20
calera 71 92 73 92 74 10 20 10 30 20
auburn 72 91 73 91 74 20 20 10 30 10
montgomery 72 93 74 93 75 10 20 10 30 20
troy 72 92 73 92 74 10 20 10 30 10

Bmx watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Anniston Metro Airport, AL23 mi26 minVar 310.00 miFair91°F66°F45%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from ANB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW8SW8NE4SW9W3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW43N8N65CalmE53
1 day agoCalmSW6W3N12CalmN5CalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W5CalmCalm34SE5S5
2 days agoCalmN4S3CalmSW4SW4W5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4W3CalmS4CalmSE5SE6CalmSE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.