Saturday, April29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday April 29, 2017 1:28 AM EDT (05:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 10:39PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 940 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 940 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze showers or Thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Beach, SC
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location: 33.68, -78.89     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 290156
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
956 pm edt Fri apr 28 2017

High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through
Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze
showers or storms, mainly Sunday. The next cold front will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into
early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week
period. Low pressure system may impact the region during
Thursday with a soaking rain.

Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/
As of 1000 pm Friday... It's been fascinating watching the low
clouds along the coast on 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery this
evening. Low clouds from myrtle beach northward appear to
eroding along the south edge, but clouds in the georgetown
vicinity are holding together a little better. Not even the hrrr
model is good enough to forecast the movement of such a small
mesoscale phenomenon, so i've attempted to manually extrapolate
the cloud movement northward in the forecast grids over the
next 4-6 hours as they spread inland but spare the immediate
cape fear coastline. No significant changes to forecast low
temperatures. Discussion from 630 pm follows...

an unbelievably humid airmass for this early in the year covers
the carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid 70s are practically unheard
of in april, and even with nearshore ocean water temperatures
near record warm territory these dewpoints have generated areas
of sea stratus and even sea fog earlier along the ga and sc

Inland cumulus should die away fairly quickly this evening with
the loss of daytime heating. It's a little more uncertain how
clouds will respond near the coast: very humid air streaming
onshore will experience frictional/speed convergence which
could maintain a very low stratocumulus deck affecting
georgetown, myrtle beach, and wilmington through the evening
hours. Precipitation appears unlikely overnight as the depth of
our moisture is very limited and will be capped off by warm and
very dry air aloft.

Lows tonight will run at least 15 degrees above normal for the
date with 69-74 expected, coolest inland.

Climate note: wilmington's low temperature so far today has been
74 degrees. Assuming we don't drop below 74 between now and
midnight standard time (1 am daylight time) this will establish
a new all-time record warm low temperature for the month of
april in wilmington. Records extend back to the year 1874.

Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Monday night/
Saturday and Sunday: the synoptic pattern will be dominated by deep
layered subtropical ridging with the region positioned just to the
west of the 850-500 hpa anticyclone. Modified forecast soundings for
both Saturday and Sunday show pronounced capping with only the far
interior west of i-95 becoming uncapped for about 1-2 hours with the
sea breeze. Given lower tropospheric moisture looks pretty meager
outside of the boundary layer, prefer to go with a dry forecast for
both days. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs ranging
form the lower 90s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. Lows
Sunday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s
at the beaches.

Monday: a cold front will approach from the west Monday as high
pressure shifts farther offshore and a powerful storm system moves
into the upper mississippi valley. Moisture return ahead of the
front looks solid with taps noted from off the gulf of mexico and
atlantic. Although the upper low and the core of the strongest
forcing looks to pass well to the north, there will be enough to
support a broad swath of showers/tstms across the frontal zone. Pops
will be increased to 70% for most zones Monday night as the front
sweeps offshore. Highs will warm into the lower-mid 80s away from
the beaches Monday afternoon with lows Tuesday morning ranging from
the upper 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the beaches.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/
Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east mon,
allowing a cold front to approach from the w. Low pressure and
associated strong dynamics and upper level support will be well
dislocated from the carolinas as a cold front moves across the
area Mon night. This suggests convection weakening as it moves
into the eastern carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood
for showers and thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night.

As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure
along the gulf coast will slide east and then offshore to our s
during wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure
will move out of the mid south and gulf coast states wed,
lifting slowly to the ne. Its associated cold front will move
into the southeast states thu-thu night, bringing the risk for
robust thunderstorms.

Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 00z Saturday... Low confidence forecast with cloud heights
along the coast over the next several hours as we transition
from day to night. Very rich low level moisture streaming
onshore has supported MVFR/ifr ceilings along the coast of the
carolinas this afternoon. While the moisture will remain
overnight, the loss of daytime heating could cause an erosion
of this cloud cover -- but to what degree is unknown. The last
few visible satellite images show fairly solid low cloud cover
extending from charleston and georgetown which should move
northward along the coast now through 06z. Forecasts are for ifr
ceilings to perhaps improve to MVFR temporarily in the myr/cre
area after 02z, but confidence in low.

At least scattered low clouds below 1000 feet agl will persist
all night even if ceilings do not develop. Models even suggest
after 06z enough moisture will push inland that flo and lbt
could see some scattered low clouds develop.VFR conditions
should develop after daybreak.

Extended outlook... Periods of ifr/MVFR conditions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.

Near term /through tonight/...

as of 1000 pm Friday... The seabreeze has died away leaving winds
mainly in the 10-13 knot range which should persist overnight.

No significant changes are needed to the forecast. Discussion
from 630 pm follows...

south winds across the coastal waters have been strongest
nearshore for the afternoon with the seabreeze. Farther offshore
winds are barely 10 knots at the frying pan shoals buoy and the
edisto buoy east of charleston. Once the seabreeze dies away
expect a very warm and humid onshore flow to continue overnight.

Although we don't expect true sea fog to develop, periods of
low stratus clouds and hazy visibilities in the 2-4 mile range
are possible.

Short term /Saturday through Monday/...

as of 300 pm Friday... Southerly wind regime will persist
through Monday as the region remains along the western flanks of
atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Speeds will
generally remain 10-15 kt through the period, except Sunday
night into Monday where speeds increase to 15-20 kt and 20-25 kt
Monday night as low-level jetting and a tightening pressure
gradient settle in ahead of a cold front. Seas will slowly build
over the weekend, peaking 5-7 ft by Monday night ahead of the
cold front. A small craft advisory could be needed as early as
Monday morning.

Long term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...

as of 300 pm Friday... In the wake of the cold frontal passage
early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore
trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below small
craft advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no
concerns for Wednesday into Thursday.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99/chs
near term... Tra
short term... 99/chs
long term... 99/chs
aviation... Tra

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 2 mi40 min 1020.6 hPa
SSBN7 24 mi118 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 24 mi80 min S 7.8 G 12 73°F 72°F1021.4 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 28 mi103 min SSW 9.9 76°F 1021 hPa74°F
41108 46 mi41 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC2 mi32 minS 98.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1021.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC13 mi35 minS 77.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1021.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC16 mi33 minS 55.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS9S9SW9S9S9S8S8S9S11S13S15----S16S15
1 day ago------S3SW5SW6SW6SW10SW8SW8SW14S15--S14S14S14S10S10S13S13--S8S10S11
2 days agoW5W4CalmW3SW355--55S7S12SE9S13S13--S11--S10SW10--------

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:05 PM EDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Socastee Bridge, South Carolina
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Socastee Bridge
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Sat -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:47 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.