Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Ana, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:13PM Thursday October 19, 2017 8:29 PM PDT (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:47AMMoonset 6:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 PZZ600 818 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...a 1026 mb high was located 500 nm west of point conception and a 1012 mb thermal low was near las vegas. Gale force winds are likely across the outer water late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Ana, CA
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location: 33.73, -117.89     debug


Area Discussion for - San Diego, CA
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Fxus66 ksgx 192110
afdsgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service san diego ca
200 pm pdt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will move through the west coast Friday.

This will result in a cooling trend through Friday, with a deep
marine layer bringing stratus with drizzle or light showers late
tonight and Friday from the coastal mountain slopes west to the
coast. A santa ana wind will develop this weekend and continue early
next week and bring hot dry weather along with occasional gusty
winds especially through and below passes and canyons. A gradual
cooling trend will likely occur Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Discussion For extreme southwestern california including orange...

san diego... Western riverside and southwestern san bernardino
counties...

rather thick high clouds were drifting over most of the region this
afternoon with a few lingering low clouds near the coast.

Temperatures were mostly 5-12 deg f lower this afternoon due to the
cooler profile and deeper marine layer.

Low pressure trough was off the pac NW coast and will shift east to
just inland from most of the west coast by Friday morning. Trough
axis moves through so-cal mid-morning Friday, and with a deep marine
layer and the morning timing with higher low-level relative
humidities, there could be drizzle or light showers. Models have
been consistent with showing some measurable precip, mostly under
1 10 inch, over mainly the valleys and foothills. This models do
have some moisture lingering into Friday afternoon, so precip may
locally linger at least near the foothills accordingly. WRF bufkit
soundings show the marine air reaching 5000 feet or higher over some
areas from the mountains west to the coast, especially san diego
county. Westerly winds just above the surface of 10-15 mph could
orographically enhance the precip on west-facing slopes. Added
mostly 20-30 pops to the forecast for mainly Friday morning. Areas
of gusty winds will occur Friday on the east mountain slopes and
could reach advisory criteria.

The big issue will be the santa ana winds beneath a strong ridge of
high pressure Saturday through Tuesday or Wednesday. This will bring
hot conditions, peaking Monday and Tuesday. The hot conditions could
reach the immediate coast as most of the driving of the offshore
flow will be the surface pressure gradients, with smaller effects
from the mountain wave as cold air advection will be weaker than
with most santa ana wind events at least Sunday through Tuesday, so
any inversion which would support a mountain wave would be weak.

There could be an inversion initially Saturday near the mountain
crests which could support mountain waves for locally strong gusty
winds southwest of the mountains. Temperatures will likely reach 100
or higher Monday and Tuesday in many areas west of the mountains,
with a few areas possibly 105-106. In the forecast this afternoon, i
mostly went above MOS guidance as it tends to be too low in this
pattern in october. GFS and ECMWF have been quite consistent with
their temperature profile run-to-run and have 850 mb temps peaking
around 24-25 deg c west of the mountains Mon tue, and gusty easterly
winds could keep many areas quite . Warm Mon night. Issued an
excessive heat watch for Mon Tue west of the moutnains. Current wind
guidance suggests gusts in the 40-50 mph range Saturday mainly below
the san bernardino county mountains, slightly weaker Sunday and
Monday, then probably 40-50 mph again Tuesday but over more
locations as the surface high pressure strengthens over the great
basin.

After a peak in the upper high over california somewhere in the 596-
599 dm range at 500 mb mon-tue, the heights lower as a relatively
weak trough approaches from the north. All models have lower heights
Wednesday, but many solutions of the GFS ensemble have modest height
falls. Cooler weather should start Wednesday, but it might be
Thursday until more substantial cooling occurs.

Aviation
191927z... Through 20 0000 utc, primarily p6sm vis and few-sct clouds
aoa 20000 ft msl for all areas, with any local sct-bkn clouds 1500-
2500 ft msl likely clearing out by 2200 utc. 20 0000-1500 utc, ovc-
bkn stratus will develop over the coast, valleys, coastal slopes and
into the passes, with bases 2000-3500 ft msl, tops around 4000-5000
ft msl, mountain obscuration of coastal slopes, and drizzle isol
light showers. Elsewhere, p6sm vis and few-sct clouds AOA 20000 ft
msl will continue.

After 20 0000 utc, west winds 15-25 kt with gusts 35-40 kt over
mountain ridges, desert slopes and into adjacent desert areas will
create mod-stg uddfs llws over and E of the mountains. Patchy bldu
is also possible in the desert areas. Kpsp and ktrm will see
increasing NW winds after 2200 utc. Forecast confidence is high.

Marine
A trough moving in over the west will strengthen the northwest winds
across the coastal waters this evening through Friday, with wind
gusts of 25 kt likely, accompanied by short-period combined seas of
5-9 ft. Highest seas and strongest winds can be expected near and
south of san clemente island. Conditions will slowly improve on
Saturday, with light winds and calmer seas expected early next week.

Beaches
A 2-3 ft 14-15 second south southwest swell from 200 degrees will
continue to impact beaches north of solana beach through today. This
will produce elevated surf of 3-5 ft with sets to 6 ft, along with
strong rip and longshore currents. The south southwest swell and
surf will diminish tonight, and be replaced by a short-period
elevated northwest swell in addition to a long-period steep angled
northwest swell from 295 degrees late Friday through Saturday. This
will likely bring another increase in the surf up to 3-6 ft along
with an increased rip current threat. Although surf lowers somewhat
on Sunday, rip currents will still be a concern. The beach hazards
statement has been extended through Sunday afternoon.

Fire weather
Critical fire weather conditions are likely due to a santa ana wind
event Saturday through Tuesday, with biggest concerns Sunday through
Tuesday as temperatures increase and low relative humidity is more
widespread. The concern is more of the duration of the hot dry windy
conditions as 6-hour durations of sustained 25 mph winds and 35 mph
gusts may not necessarily be reached each day when rh values are
below 15 percent, but many areas will be close. Current guidance has
strongest winds Saturday with some mountain wave potential and then
again Tuesday with strongest surface pressure gradients. Issued a
fire weather watch starting Saturday for the sbd mountains, inland
empire and sna mountains, then starting Sunday for the rest of
orange county, valleys and mountains of san diego county and the
mountains of riverside county, with all areas continuing through
Tuesday.

Skywarn
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Sgx watches warnings advisories
Ca... Fire weather watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for orange county coastal areas-orange county inland areas-
riverside county mountains-including the san jacinto ranger
district of the san bernardino national forest-san diego
county inland valleys-san diego county mountains-including
the palomar and descanso ranger districts of the cleveland
national forest.

Fire weather watch from Saturday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for san bernardino county mountains-including the
mountain top and front country ranger districts of the san
bernardino national forest-san bernardino and riverside
county valleys -the inland empire-santa ana mountains-
including the trabuco ranger district of the cleveland
national forest.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for orange county coastal areas-orange county inland areas-
san bernardino and riverside county valleys-the inland
empire-san diego county coastal areas-san diego county
valleys.

Beach hazards statement through Sunday evening for orange county
coastal areas-san diego county coastal areas.

Pz... Small craft advisory for winds from 8 pm this evening to 1 am
pdt Saturday for coastal waters from san mateo point to the
mexican border and out to 30 nm-waters from san mateo point
to the mexican border extending 30 to 60 nm out including
san clemente island.

Public fire weather... Maxwell
aviation marine beaches... Harrison


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRJC1 16 mi41 min W 7 G 8.9
46256 17 mi37 min 67°F3 ft
PFXC1 17 mi41 min W 5.1 G 6 67°F
PSXC1 18 mi41 min SW 4.1 G 4.1
AGXC1 19 mi41 min WSW 7 G 8.9 67°F 1012 hPa
PFDC1 19 mi41 min SW 6 G 7
BAXC1 19 mi41 min SSW 1.9 G 1.9
46253 19 mi29 min 70°F3 ft
PXAC1 20 mi41 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 20 mi41 min 67°F1012.1 hPa
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 24 mi29 min 69°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 38 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 40 mi29 min 69°F4 ft
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 43 mi91 min 70°F3 ft
46224 - Oceanside Offshore, CA (045) 44 mi29 min 71°F4 ft

Wind History for Los Angeles Pier J, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Wayne-Orange County Airport, CA4 mi36 minSSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds67°F62°F84%1012 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA9 mi31 minSSE 58.00 miA Few Clouds65°F61°F88%1012.1 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA11 mi36 minS 37.00 miA Few Clouds67°F63°F87%1011.5 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA15 mi36 minWNW 49.00 miFair68°F61°F78%1011.7 hPa
Corona Airport, CA19 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair66°F59°F78%1013.2 hPa
Chino, Chino Airport, CA21 mi36 minW 86.00 miFair with Haze67°F60°F79%1012.2 hPa
Torrance, Zamperini Field Airport, CA24 mi42 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze64°F59°F83%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from SNA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3S6SW5SE3SE4SE3E4SE5SE6E5E5SE54CalmSW3S6S7SW6SW8SW9SW5SW4SW5SW4
1 day agoS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW35E4E4SW8SW9SW6SW10SW8S10S8SW4SW8S5
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalm3S7W8SW7W5W4S8SW9SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Ana River entrance (inside), California
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Santa Ana River entrance (inside)
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Thu -- 05:05 AM PDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM PDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:44 PM PDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:35 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:27 PM PDT     2.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.71.20.70.30.20.41.22.12.93.232.72.11.50.90.40.10.10.51.32.12.62.6

Tide / Current Tables for Los Patos (highway bridge), California
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Los Patos (highway bridge)
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Thu -- 04:28 AM PDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:29 AM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:08 PM PDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:35 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:02 PM PDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.81.810.50.61.12.13.34.34.84.84.33.42.31.20.40.10.3123.13.84.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Diego, CA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.