Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestbrook, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:09PM Saturday February 24, 2018 3:11 AM EST (08:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:40PMMoonset 2:00AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 947 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Overnight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. Areas of fog.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 947 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will maintain moderate S and sw winds, until a cold front crosses the coast Monday, bringing winds around to the N and ne both Monday and Tuesday. Patchy sea fog is possible south of cape fear tonight and Saturday morning. The high will move offshore Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestbrook, SC
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location: 33.74, -78.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240533
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1233 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
High pressure off the coast will bring unseasonable warmth
through the weekend. A cold front is expected on Monday
tempering the warmth some. Seasonable temperatures are
expected Tuesday and Wednesday before another warmup Thursday.

A stronger cold front will arrive Friday.

Near term through today
As of 1000 pm Friday... The pattern remains mostly unchanged from
the past few days, with the primary exception tonight being the
presence of a warm front just north of the area. This front got
very close to our area today, but was driven back to the north
by the strong ridge which has dominated the southeast all week.

Southerly flow is slowly veering to become more SW than the past
few nights, but otherwise the forecast challenge tonight again
involves fog and stratus potential. Winds tonight are a bit
stronger than last night as noted by surface winds still around
5mph and ltx VWP showing 25-30 kts at 1 kft. However, latest rap
soundings suggest better near-surface moisture and several runs
of the hrrr show fog developing across most of the area. Have
maintained inherited areas of fog across the entire area, mostly
after midnight, and some of this may again become dense. Sea fog
has eroded for now, but may also re-develop according to sref
probs and may advect onshore especially across the grand strand
overnight. Relevant portion of previous discussion below:
as of 330 pm Friday... Very low-end shower chances off the water
tonight, and again inland with heating Saturday afternoon, but
moisture terribly lacking above 6000 feet will result mostly in
moderate diurnal cumulus, and near record warmth. Record maximum
temperatures for tomorrow include, ilm 81 in 1982, cre 78 in
1996, and flo 82 in 1962.

Short term tonight through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Friday... Surface and mid-level ridge will continue to
sink south and east in the face of approaching 5h trough Sat night.

Region remains under the influence of ridging Sat night and Sun with
temperatures well above climo. Increasing low level jet Sat night
helps keep boundary layer well mixed. Mixing coupled with low level
moisture and cloud cover will keep lows in low to mid 60s. Strong
warm advection continues on Sun but weakening subsidence and
increasing cloud cover may work to limit temps a bit. Despite some
limiting factors highs will still end up more than 20 degrees above
climo for most areas with low to mid 80s likely. GFS is faster than
the ECMWF to bring in showers and the front, something which seems
less likely to happen given the presence of such strong ridging,
even if it is weakening and retreating. Plan to favor the drier
solution offered by the ECMWF and only carry chance pop Sun with an
increase to high chance or likely Sun night.

As mentioned, best pop chances will be Sun night as the cold front
moves into the area. Influence of ridging aloft will be weakening
and forecast soundings suggest precipitable water may exceed 1.6
inches late Sun into Sun night. Although the flow aloft is divergent
there is an overall lack of shortwave activity and it may end up low
level convergence is the main driver of activity Sun night. This is
not to say there won't be some shortwave PVA enhancement overnight,
but the waves that are present are on the weak side. Result will be
decent coverage of showers but total rainfall will be limited. Most
areas are likely to end up with a quarter inch or less while a few
spots may approach half an inch. Temperatures will continue above
climo despite the location of the front. Cold advection is well
displaced from the boundary and the front will be losing its push as
it moves into the area.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A slow moving cold front is forecast to come
through on Monday. The surface boundary will be accompanied by a dry
wnw mid level flow. Normally this is not conducive for significant
rainfall and Monday appears to be no different. Tuesday will be the
one day that high pressure wedges in from the north behind the
front. By Wednesday the high moves offshore and return flow gets
underway. Models are not in agreement regarding the pace at which
this leads to cloudiness and rain chance. Will show a gradual trend
through Wednesday into Wednesday night as usually with moisture
advection slower solutions tend to be better ones. A more
substantial cold front arrives late Thursday or Friday. Guidance
varies considerably with the pattern aloft casting uncertainty
regarding rain prospects with this stronger boundary.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 06z... Moisture laden flow continues across the entire area
this morning and a significant fog outbreak is once again
anticipated. I basically applied a start time for ifr conditions
similar to observations this morning which is around 0700 utc.

Similar trends applied to the daytime dissipation around 1400
utc.VFR conditions expected tomorrow afternoon into the
evening.

Extended outlook... Approaching cold front will bring increasing
chances for showers and MVFR Sunday and Monday.VFR Tuesday.

Showers possible Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 1000 pm Friday... Bermuda high pressure remains the
dominant feature producing southerly winds of 10 kts or less
across the waters. Earlier sea fog has eroded, but is likely to
redevelop overnight into Saturday and have carried areas of fog
once again in the wx grids. A marine dense fog advisory may be
needed again, but confidence is low. Otherwise, seas will remain
around 3 ft, up to 4 ft near the 20nm boundary as a 3-4 ft 9sec
se swell dominates the spectrum. Relevant portion of previous
discussion below:
as of 330 pm Friday... Aside from the hazard of reduced vision
in sea fog, wind and waves will be welcoming. SE waves 3 feet
every 9 seconds will be co-joined with a light chop. Seas
possibly up to 4 ft outer waters, but this wave energy is not
steep. No tstms this period, but isolated showers and bouts of
sea fog should be expected tonight and Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 3 pm Friday... High pressure will remain off the coast through
the period. Southwest flow will gradually increase Sat night and sun
with speeds peaking in the 15 to 20 kt range Sun afternoon. Gradient
will start to weaken later Sun or Sun night as slow moving cold
front reaches the area. Flow remains out of the southwest but speeds
will drop to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will run 3 to 4 ft through the period.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Frontal passage on Monday will lead to a shift
from W to NW winds. This front will be weak and so not expecting any
surge of high pressure, cold air, or gusty winds. High pressure
behind the front does not drive very far south as it progresses off
the coast to our north heading into Tuesday. This turns winds to ne
and then E with no significant change in wind speeds. The onshore
flow direction however will allow for slightly larger seas. No
headlines are planned at this time. Wind and waves may build at the
end of the period or just beyond with the approach of the next
front, which will be much stronger.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Jdw mjc
short term... Iii
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi41 min 1028.8 hPa
SSBN7 25 mi149 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi63 min W 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 61°F1025.6 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 30 mi86 min S 1.9 65°F 1026 hPa64°F
41108 49 mi41 min 61°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC3 mi15 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds64°F63°F96%1025.8 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC12 mi16 minN 00.25 miHeavy Rain57°F57°F100%1025.4 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi18 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F63°F96%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmN4NE3E4SE7SE8SE8SE9S9SE12S10SE6S7S7S7SW7S9S11S6SW4
1 day agoS8S7S5S6S7S4S6S7S7S8S11S9S11S10S11S9S9S7S7S5S4CalmCalmS5
2 days agoSE4S4SE6SE5SE6CalmS4SE6SE7S10SE8S9S8S9S9S7S9S7S7S8S6S8S8S7

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Sat -- 12:05 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:57 AM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:00 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:32 PM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.61.31.81.91.81.71.41.10.80.50.30.30.40.91.31.61.61.51.20.90.50.2

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Sat -- 01:45 AM EST     5.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:23 PM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.24.954.63.72.51.40.60.30.411.82.83.74.24.13.52.41.30.3-0.2-0.10.51.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.