Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Forestbrook, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:09PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:15 AM EST (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 1:27PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 306 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 306 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Quiet marine conditions will occur today as high pressure builds across the area. The next cold front will move across the waters late Tuesday with arctic high pressure returning for Wednesday and Thursday moderating by Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestbrook, SC
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location: 33.74, -78.93     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 110847
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
347 am est Mon dec 11 2017

The week looks dry although there is some risk for rainfall on
Friday. Sunshine will bring a modest temperature rise and we
will be close to normal by Tuesday. A strong cold front will
move across the area late Tuesday with arctic air returning
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures will
moderate late week. A cold front may bring a brief cool down to
start the weekend followed by a return to seasonable temperatures

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Monday... Though mixing is quite shallow a low level
thermal ridge is starting to be experienced at the surface in the
form of gradually rising temperatures. Warm advection will continue
today and surface high pressure will sink down into the gulf of
mexico. Afternoon temperatures rising into the mid 50s will feel
much nicer than recent days but still be about a category below
climatology. Tonight's low temperatures in the upper 30s however
will be a bit above climo due to the continued warm advection ahead
of a strong cold front approaching.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... A digging upper trough will pivot across
the southeast states, moving across the eastern carolinas late
tue and Tue eve. This will drive a strong cold front across the
forecast area. Arctic air will plunge across the region in the
wake of this front, bringing a brief return to the deep freeze.

It still looks like the airmass will be too dry to support
precipitation, but we should see a period of partly cloudy
skies as the front moves through with clearing overnight tue.

It will be breezy on Tue with high temps likely just about the
warmest of the week, reaching the upper 50s in most locations
with a few 60 degree readings possible. 850 mb temps will drop
to -9c to -13c by daybreak wed. As dewpoints crash into the
teens late Tue night, lows will drop to the mid and upper 20s by
daybreak Wed and to date, we have not been colder than that
this season. Strong cold and dry advection will keep winds
elevated Tue night, bringing wind chill values as low as 15 to
20 degrees.

The coldest day of the week will be on Wed when forecast highs
are not expected to exceed the lower to mid 40s. Despite full
sunshine, NW winds will make it feel as if it were at or below
freezing for a good part of the day.

The forecast for Wed night may need some refinement over the
next day or so. At this time, it looks like a weak disturbance
will race across the mississippi and tennessee valleys in deep
wnw flow and then move across the carolinas late Wed night.

Moisture profiles are showing a period of mid clouds associated
with this feature. Should these clouds indeed arrive, they will
help to disrupt radiational cooling processes, preventing temps
from reaching their lowest potential. In the end, temps wed
night may end up near to just above the lows of the previous
night with perhaps some upward pressure on readings toward thu

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... The extended will feature primarily a
continuation of below normal temperatures as anomalous ridge
across the western CONUS drives deep troughing over the eastern
half of the country. This trough will be re-enforced Friday,
and again late Sunday, as potent shortwaves dig through the
longwave trough and cause a surge of cold air to envelop the
carolinas. Each of these shortwaves will be accompanied by a
cold front, but for the most part these will be dry. However,
the weekend front could be preceded by enough moist advection
that showers will be possible. The ecm is much different from
the GFS cmc and does not produce a shortwave or cold front for
Sunday. Despite the pattern being amplified, mid-level flow
remains fast, so it seems likely another shortwave cold front
would be in the vicinity by the end of the period and will lean
the forecast in that direction, but much uncertainty exists by

Weak warm advection Thursday and Friday will bring a recovery in
temperatures with a cool down on Saturday in the wake of a cold
front. Temperatures by Sunday should be just about normal.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
As of 06z... Clear skies and light winds through the period
leading toVFR. Wind may veer slightly as high pressure dips to
our southwest.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Monday... High pressure moving into the gulf of
mexico today will keep the local gradient quite light and winds
out of the west. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft in a SE swell and a
sw wind chop. The approach of a cold front will turn the wind
more southerly early tonight and then lead to an increase in
wind speeds as the boundary starts pinching the gradient. As
such the short term forecast has already raised an advisory.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... A small craft advisory has been issued
beginning tue. The worst of the marine conditions should occur
tue night with a gradual improvement in conditions during wed.

A strong cold front will sweep across the waters Tue eve, driving
cold and dry air into the area as wsw winds Tue shift to the nw
tue night. These NW winds will continue into Wed morning before
backing to wnw Wed afternoon and then to W and wsw Wed night.

Wind speeds will be 20 to 25 kt Tue and Tue night with the
strongest winds expected Tue night when gusts may reach 30 kt.

As the surge wanes, the strongest winds should be decreasing wed
morning and wind speeds are expected to decrease to 15 to 20 kt
during Wed and to 10 to 15 kt Wed night. Seas will peak in the
4 to 6 ft range through the first half of the period and then
subside to 2 to 4 ft during Wed and to 2 ft Wed night. The
strong offshore wind component behind the front will quickly
drive seas lower across the near shore waters.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... High pressure across the waters will
allow winds to further ease on Thursday while a W NW direction
persists. Seas will fall to around 2 ft. Another cold front will
approach during Friday, and ahead of this feature winds will
become W SW and increase to 15-20 kt, driving seas up to 4-6 ft,
and another SCA may be required near the end of the week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Tuesday to 7 am est Wednesday
for amz250-252-254-256.


near term... mbb
short term... Rjd
long term... Jdw
aviation... mbb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi46 min 1025.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi68 min W 14 G 19 47°F 1021.7 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 30 mi91 min WSW 4.1 38°F 1023 hPa31°F
41108 49 mi46 min 56°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC3 mi20 minSW 510.00 miFair36°F30°F79%1022.6 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC12 mi21 minSSW 37.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1022 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi23 minSW 510.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW7W5W4NW6NW7NW10NW12NW11NW7NW7W7
1 day agoN9N13NW11N12NW12N13NW10NW9NW9W9W8NW8W9W9W8W5W6W8W9W9W9--W8W9
2 days agoN9N8N9NE11NE11N12NE11N11NE12NE16

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Mon -- 12:19 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:19 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Mon -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:51 AM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:54 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:09 PM EST     5.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.