Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Forestbrook, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday April 22, 2018 2:05 PM EDT (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:26AMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1156 Am Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning...
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Rain with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1156 Am Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will slowly move northeast today and tonight. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday and Tuesday. The low will slowly move northeast and away from the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west on Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Forestbrook, SC
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location: 33.74, -78.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221603
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1203 pm edt Sun apr 22 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will continue to extend into the
carolinas today as it migrates off the mid-atlantic coast. A
slow moving low pressure system will cross the southeastern u.S.

And produce beneficial rains of 2 to 4 inches Monday through
Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday will bounce
back to near normal for the rest of the week. Another cold front
may bring additional showers Wednesday or Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 12 pm Sunday... A very weak surface trough near the coast with
some isentropic lift has generated light showers primarily south and
southwest of CAPE fear. These showers are moving toward the
northwest but are running into dry air and mostly dissipating as
they approach land. However, an isolated shower or two may make it
onshore along the brunswick and northern horry coast over the next
few hours. Thus tweaked the forecast to increase sky cover and
include a small pop for portions of the long bay coast as well as
the adjacent coastal waters.

Previous discussion... Growing batches of clouds off the south
carolina coast and dense overcast moving eastward across georgia are
evidence of increasing isentropic lift. An upper level low over
arkansas today will move across northern mississippi late tonight.

Thermal gradients are diffuse and rather far south and east of the
upper system, so the surface low is more a reflection of what's
going on aloft rather than typical baroclinic processes. Clouds
should gradually increase, becoming a solid overcast across the area
by midnight with rain chances increasing from west to east then.

Changes with this morning update were very minor. Temperatures
were quick to jump this morning as the shallow nocturnal
inversion dissipated. Steady onshore winds and a slowly
moderating airmass should yield temperatures about a degree
higher than we saw yesterday. Discussion from 300 am follows...

surface high just north of the outer banks this morning will
gradually retreat northeast today into tonight as stacked low
slowly drifts from the southern plains states into the lower
mississippi valley. Deep dry air remains over the region into
tonight with precipitable water not climbing over half an inch
until mid afternoon to early evening. Low level onshore flow
gradually helps increase boundary layer moisture, but flow aloft
remains west- northwest until very late in the period. This
prevents any meaningful moisture return until late tonight, when
the mid-level pattern starts to change and deep southwest flow
develops. Most areas do not see precipitable water exceed one
inch until very late in the period. Expect another dry day today
with temperatures running a little below climo. High cloud
spreads over the area from the southwest during the day,
gradually thickening throughout the day. Increasing cloud cover
will limit afternoon heating a bit, especially across inland sc.

However, temperatures starting out several degrees warmer than
yesterday will lead to highs ranging from the upper 60s along
the coast to low to mid 70s inland.

As the stacked low moves into the lower mississippi valley tonight
it helps pull a weak coastal trough onshore. This aids low level
moisture return and leads to increasing lowering cloud cover.

Increased east-southeast winds will also help keep temperatures
warmer with lows likely to end up a few degrees above climo, mid 50s
for most areas. Latest guidance shows 850 700 mb frontogenesis and
increasing divergence aloft moving into the forecast area as the
period ends. These features are also near the theta E ridge,
something which suggests heavy rain will be poised to move into the
forecast area very late or just after the end of the period. Given
guidance does tend to start precip a bit early have slowed down
arrival of precip late in the period.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 400 am Sunday... The time frame extending from the start
of this period, 6am mon, through Tuesday daylight morning, the
local fa will see nearly a continuous shield of light to
moderate stratiform type rains. Embedded in this shield of
rainfall, will be a few thunderstorms. For the most part, the
tstorm activity will occur over the atlantic waters and given
the trajectory of the swath of pcpn moving onshore, the coastal
counties will be the 1st in line to experience a few of these
storms. As the pcpn moves further inland, the lack of
instability will keep tstorms from further developing or in this
case, from progressing too far inland before it's demise.

Models indicate an expansive area of strong uvvs across the fa
and surroundings for a good 24 to 36 hrs. This a result of
synoptic difluence aloft due to the positioning of the upper
closed low as it moves from the lower mississippi valley Monday
morning, to eastern tennessee late Tue night before finally
opening up to a S W trof by wed. Model soundings indicate 50+
kt east to southeast winds pumping in low level atlantic
moisture across the carolinas. Gulf of mexico moisture will have
already been and continue to be tapped but by this time the main
source will be atlantic moisture.

Forecast rainfall amounts during this 2 day period will range
from 2 to 4 inches. Isolated higher amounts are possible mainly
along the immediate coast due to the onshore movement of any
convection before dying out as it pushes further inland into a
more stable atm in the low levels. This modest rainfall amounts
over a 2 day period will be extremely beneficial to farmers and
local growers. Crops, plants, trees and etc, will literally act
like sponges and absorb this water. And given the 2 day period
of these rains, we do not expect high runoff problems.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A low pressure system will track off to
the NE tues into wed. The sfc low will track closer to the
coastline while the upper low will move northeast from tn toward
the ohio valley. As this closed upper low lifts north, another
shortwave will rotate down toward the southern appalachians by
thurs. Overall, this system remains quite complex, but looks
like the heavier rain will move north leaving clouds but some
drier air wrapping through mid week. The next shortwave should
dig down and push a cold front through on thurs, but does not
look like a big rainmaker. Therefore, expect breaks in the
clouds and some clearing late tues into Wed with increased
clouds and potential for pcp again thurs. Another system will
follow in this progressive flow by Fri into sat, although the
gfs keeps most of the weather with this system north of our
local forecast area, while the ECMWF remains more pessimistic
heading into next weekend. Overall a good amount of clouds and
and not much QPF expected through the week. Temps have been
trending warmer but remaining near normals through much of the
period.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12z...VFR through the valid TAF period. East winds will
pick up this morning, and clouds gradually increase through the
day with ceilings lowering from southwest to northeast this
evening and tonight.

Extended outlook... Rain Monday and Tuesday could bring periods of
MVFR ifr conditions in low ceilings and visibility. The worst
conditions are expected Monday night. Wed ThuVFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 950 am Sunday... Easterly winds are currently gusting to
21 knots at the frying pan shoals buoy and 12-15 knots along the
beaches. Steady easterly winds will gradually increase tonight.

Aside from minor tweaks upward in wind speed forecasts today,
no significant changes were needed to the forecast. Discussion
from 300 am follows...

easterly winds will steadily increase through the period,
becoming more southeast late tonight. Surface high north of the
outer banks this morning will gradually retreat northeast today
as low pressure moves east toward the southeastern states.

Gradient will slowly become more defined and winds will increase
from 10 to 15 kt later today to 15 to 20 kt this evening and
overnight. Increase in wind speeds combined with onshore flow
helps build seas from 2 to 3 ft this morning to 3 to 5 ft by
evening. Seas continue building tonight and it is likely seas
will reach 6 ft a few hours prior to the end of the period. Thus
the previously raised small craft advisory will remain in
effect.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 400 am Sunday... SCA conditions will start off this short
term period as a well tightened sfc pg settles across the local
waters. This sfc pg will tighten some more by mid-afternoon mon
and continue through Tuesday morning except late morning for
the waters north of CAPE fear. Various model soundings indicate
50+ kt sustained winds at only 450 ft to 800 ft above the ocean
sfc. With east to southeast winds pushing offshore gulf stream
waters toward the coast. With 70+ degree ssts already lurking
just offshore, ie. 41013 at 70.0 degrees f, the thinking is
enough of this warm water will be in play for those strong winds
just off the deck to mix down to the ocean sfc. Thus a gale
watch has been issued for all waters from Mon afternoon through
late Tuesday morning. Have left a 3 hr buffer on the ending of
the gale watch due to closed lows will at times not follow the
latest model fcsts. Significant seas will build rather quickly
and primarily will be wind wave driven. A pseudo ground swell, 6
to 8 second periods, in time may develop due to a decent fetch
with these onshore winds to operate over.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Complex low pressure system will track
ne parallel and near to the carolina va coast tues into wed. A
strong onshore flow will persist into tues , but winds will
diminish as they shift around from on shore to off shore by wed
on the back end of the low as it lifts off to the northeast.

Another system will follow behind this one, dragging a cold
through on thurs. Therefore expect off shore flow to continue
through much fo the period.

Overall, expect seas to subside through the period from a peak
tues morning, above 10 ft in outer waters. The on shore flow
will shift around to the off shore and decrease with seas down
below SCA thresholds by Wed morning and continuing to lower to 2
to 4 ft by thurs morning.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for
amz250-252-254-256.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 3 pm edt Monday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Srp tra
short term... Dch
long term... Rgz
aviation... Crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 6 mi48 min 1030.2 hPa
SSBN7 25 mi104 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi58 min E 12 G 18 64°F 63°F1026.8 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 30 mi81 min ENE 13 65°F 1027 hPa57°F
41108 49 mi36 min 61°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC3 mi70 minE 12 G 2110.00 miFair68°F53°F59%1027.5 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC12 mi71 minSE 87.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F50°F47%1027.1 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi73 minE 13 G 1910.00 miFair68°F52°F57%1027 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE14E14SE12E12E12E9E8E8E10E9E9E8E8E5N4NE4N4NE4E6E11E13E13
G20
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1 day ago--SE9SE8S9SE8SE7SE5SE4SE4SE7SE6SE5E6SE8E8E7E5N3N7
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2 days agoW18
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N16N15N13N10N9NE9NE13NE14NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach, Combination Bridge, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach
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Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:28 AM EDT     2.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.41.11.7221.91.71.310.60.30.20.20.61.11.51.71.71.51.30.90.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier)
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Sun -- 01:12 AM EDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:59 PM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.15.65.44.63.420.90.20.10.51.42.43.54.34.64.33.42.21.10.30.10.51.42.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.