Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Red Hill, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:41PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:33 AM EST (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:47AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 836 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
AMZ200 836 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An eastward moving cold front will cross the waters this evening and offshore by midnight. The sea fog will continue to plague the local waters this evening before dissipating. High pressure will build in behind the front, with it's center moving overhead Thu into Fri. Ridging from this high will extend westward across the area waters as it's center moves offshore late Fri and into the upcoming weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Hill, SC
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location: 33.75, -79.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240234
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
934 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Synopsis
Gusty west to northwest winds and drier air will filter in
behind the cold front tonight. Dry and near seasonable weather
are expected Wednesday through Fri as high pressure slowly
migrates across the area. Weekend temperatures will warm again
ahead of a cold front, along with showers late Sat and
especially during sun. After the passage of this cold front
late Sunday, a return to seasonable temperatures is expected on
mon.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 845 pm Tuesday... A secondary cold front depicted by the
sfc pressure pattern and associated with a small band of widely
scattered mid or high level clouds is progged to drop southeast
across to south and east of the fa later this evening into the
pre-dawn Wed hrs. At the moment, this band was located from new
bern across red springs to hartsville. After this secondary cfp,
sfc winds will further veer to the wnw to NW and accompanied by
the surge of colder and continued drier air infiltrating the
fa. Ahead of this secondary cold front, sfc dewpoints have
already dropped into the 30s except for the coastal counties of
southeast nc where 40s were still prevalent. This last area
will follow suit during the nest hour followed by the secondary
cold and drier air push.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 555 pm Tuesday... Some tweaks to winds closer to the coast
due to a cold frontal passage this evening. As winds veer to
the west, lower dewpoints, ie. Drier air, will filter across the
region and over the adjacent atlantic waters. This will help
dissipate and drive the sea fog further off the coast with the
bald head island the last to improve.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 300 pm Tuesday... What a difference 8 hours makes! This
morning started with a line of moderately strong convection and
muggy air, and is ending with an absolutely beautiful afternoon
with highs exceeding 70 and dewpoints crashing into the 30s.

The cause of this changeable weather is a cold front which
bisecting the CWA at this hour. A line of showers which was
along this boundary has dissipated and only a few residual cu
exist anymore. This is due primarily due much drier air which
has filtered into the column, and pwats continue to drop as the
dewpoint gradient across the front is nearly 30 degrees f! The
cool advection lags considerably so today will remain warm, but
the dry air combined with very strong winds atop the pbl will
allow winds to gust up to 30mph through this eve as the
direction shifts gradually to the west. Winds will become nw
tonight as high pressure begins to ridge into the area from the
west, driving much cooler temperatures, and mins are forecast to
be 30 degrees below aftn highs, falling into the mid and upr
30s.

Much cooler temps will occur Wednesday but will still be around
seasonable norms in the upr 50s but with a very dry column, bright
sunshine, and light winds, it will feel quite nice Wednesday as
typical late january weather sets up.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday... A dry air mass will get even drier as
mid to upper trough moves off the east coast and high pressure
migrates eastward. Moisture profiles show limited moisture up
just above h85 Wed eve but once the trough passes off shore,
deep nw-n flow will funnel in even drier and slightly cooler
air. Pcp water levels will drop from already dry levels near

35 to near 20 inches. Aside from a few passing clouds as mid
to upper trough swings through Wed eve, expect dry weather with
plenty of sunshine during the day on thurs and clear skies at
night. Dewpoint temps will drop down into the mid 20s through
thurs. The 850 temps will drop from around 2c Wed eve to -2c by
early thurs morning. CAA overnight Wed night will help bring
temps down close to 30 degrees by daybreak. This shot of
slightly cooler air will make its way in, leaving temps slightly
below normal on thurs, with highs within a few degrees of 50.

Great radiational cooling will take place thurs night as high
pressure migrates overhead allowing for calm winds across much
of the area and a continued cloud free sky. Temps should drop to
the mid 20s inland to near freezing along the coast thurs night.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Upper level ridging across the eastern
u.S. Friday and Saturday will give way to an approaching upper
trough early next week. There are amplitude differences with the
trough between the GFS and the ecwmf canadian navgem that
strongly influence our sensible weather for Sunday and Sunday
night.

Surface high pressure along the east coast Friday should move
off the coast Saturday. This will allow for a modified marine
airmass to spread back onshore with rising temperatures and
dewpoints for Saturday. The aforementioned upper trough should
dig into the eastern u.S. Sunday and Monday. The GFS is
anomalously flatter with this feature compared to virtually all
other models, and the surface low it develops remains weak and
trickles eastward across florida. Other models show a stronger
surface low moving northeastward out of the gulf and through
the piedmont foothills region on Sunday, drawing in a stronger
southerly flow across the coastal carolinas. Following the more
amplified models, we're forecasting pops increasing to 60-70
percent on Sunday. Forecast soundings from the ECMWF show modest
surface-based instability possible, and we'll maintain the
mention of isolated thunderstorms.

All models show clearing developing Monday as a glancing shot of
canadian air spreads into the carolinas from the north. Low
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights could drop to freezing.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 23z... Cold front will push off the coast in the next hour
or so and all winds will be from the wsw or w. Sea fog along the
coastal terminals has dissipated and expect nothing butVFR
conditions for the overnight period and into Wednesday with
mainly clear skies and a light west wind.

Extended outlook...VFR through the end of the forecast period.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 845 pm Tuesday... Dense sea fog has been cancelled. Latest
goes 16 imagery ie. 10.3-3.9 micron, illustrates the deeper sea
fog now northeast of the local waters with a few pockets closer
to 20 nm out. With 40s sfc dewpoints advecting across the local
waters at the moment, and progged 30s to drop into the 30s, sea
fog will no longer be a concern across the fa and has been
cancelled.

Sca conditions to prevail into the pre-dawn Wed hrs... Mainly for
risen significant seas from earlier strong s-sw winds. Seas will
especially begin to subside once winds further veer to the wnw
to NW after the secondary cfp. Dominant periods will run 6 to 8
seconds, a pseudo or borderline swell.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 600 pm Tuesday... Extended the dense fog advisory to 10 pm
tonight. Extended the SCA to 3 am Wednesday.

Latest Sat imagery specifically the 10.3-3.9 micron channel,
displays the sea fog nicely across the local waters. As the
drier air advects into the local waters under westerly winds,
the sea fog will both get pushed eastward while dissipating at
the same time.

Latest seas and local winds are running slightly hier than fcst
this evening into the overnight hrs. Have adjusted both winds
and seas at current readings and meshed them with the overnight
fcst.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 300 pm Tuesday... Small craft advisory conditions ongoing
across the waters will gradually ease as a front pushes offshore
later this aftn. Although winds will remain elevated much of
tonight, the combination of slightly lower winds speeds, 15-20
kts, along with a shift in direction to the west will push the
highest seas away from the coastal waters. The SCA is expected
to expire on time at 6pm. Winds will become westerly tonight and
then NW by Wednesday morning before backing again to the west
late in the period. This is in response to high pressure
building in from the west, and this relaxing gradient will allow
speeds to fall to 5-10 kts during Wednesday, followed by seas
dropping through 3-4 ft tonight and 2-3 ft on Wednesday.

Marine dense fog advisory remains in effect as well, also through
6pm. Latest GOES east imagery and beach cams show very dense fog
along the brunswick county coast and much of the waters just away
from shore. As winds begin to shift, the ideal trajectories will
fade so fog will push offshore and diminish this evening.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... A reinforcing shot of cold and dry air
will move over the area waters Wed night into thurs as upper
trough moves through and high pressure builds in from the west.

Light and more variable winds late Wed will pick up in northerly
surge overnight wed. This will push winds up to 10 to 15 kts
with some higher gusts Wed night into thurs. Expect seas around
2 to 3 ft to rise slightly to 2 to 4 ft through thurs before
coming back down as northerly winds lighten and veer around to
the NE through thurs night. Seas will be back down to less than
3 ft by Fri morning.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure along the east coast on
Friday will move out to sea Friday night, allowing easterly
winds to develop along the carolina coast. Low pressure should
develop in the northern gulf of mexico on Saturday, but where
the low moves Saturday night and Sunday is still quite
uncertain. The GFS model has been very consistent for the last
couple of days showing the low moving eastward across florida
with relatively little impact on our wind speed or direction
locally. The bulk of the other global weather models show the
low moving northeastward through the piedmont and appalachian
foothills Sunday and Sunday night. The difference we'd see in
wind weather conditions between these two possibilities is
enormous.

Following the consensus solution shown by the ecwmf, canadian,
and navgem models brings increasing southerly winds across the
carolina coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night. The long
southerly fetch is expected to bring small craft advisory
conditions due to seas, and probably due to winds too. Showers
will become likely with maybe a few thunderstorms embedded
Sunday night. The cold front associated with the low may reach
the area late Sunday night with winds shifting westerly before
sunrise Monday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 am est Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... Dough
near term... Dough jdw
short term... Rgz
long term... Tra
aviation... Mac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 10 mi46 min 1019.1 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 28 mi109 min W 7 56°F 1016 hPa33°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 32 mi86 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC6 mi39 minW 37.00 miFair52°F32°F47%1016.3 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi38 minWNW 710.00 miFair53°F33°F47%1016.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi41 minW 410.00 miFair53°F33°F47%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
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W3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Keysfield
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Wed -- 12:37 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:04 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-00.20.50.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.60.40.30.40.60.91.11.31.31.21.10.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:45 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:12 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:02 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20-00.10.40.81.11.21.21.110.80.50.40.30.30.50.711.11.21.110.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.