Sunday, August20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Red Hill, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 7:57PM Sunday August 20, 2017 12:17 AM EDT (04:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 628 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt or less...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt or less...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt...becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 628 Pm Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will stall just inland a remain over land through the weekend. High pressure will return early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Hill, SC
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location: 33.75, -79.07     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 192248
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
648 pm edt Sat aug 19 2017

A cold front will stall and weaken near the coast this weekend.

High pressure will expand across the western atlantic in the
upcoming week, bringing waves of tropical moisture through mid
week. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday
through Thursday moving off the coast Friday.

Near term through Sunday
As of 7 pm Saturday... The last of this afternoons showers are
moving offshore and other than the odd sprinkle along the coast
expect that will be it for the night as diurnal cooling takes
hold. Have allowed the heat advisory to expire on time at 6 pm
as heat index values are now well below criteria throughout the
forecast area. Have updated the forecast and gridded database
accordingly. Relative portion of previous discussion follows:
partial clearing and low- level saturation with light wind will
support pockets of dense fog from 4 am through sunrise Sunday.

Drier mid-level air and lower surface dewpoints Sunday will reduce
convective coverage compared to today, while lowering heat indices
across the region, and no 'heat advisories' are needed for Sunday.

The better rain chance will reside near the coast in vicinity of the
sea breeze front and its interaction with a decaying frontal
boundary. Winds in the lowest several thousand feet remain light
Sunday and the severe threat remains minimal, although downdraft
capes will be higher, so a localized downburst cannot be written
off entirely.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Eclipse-viewing prospects continue to worsen
unfortunately as several ingredients coming into play to increase
cloud cover and rain chances. The first 'culprit' may be the upper
low surface wave retrograding across the gulf of mexico. Locally
this leads to an enhanced mid and upper sse flow of moisture as
early as Sunday night. The GFS is much more aggressive than the wrf
in its depiction of this moisture. Monday morning even as this upper
mositure may wane, models are then showing low and mid level
moisture moving ashore as the remnant tropical wave in the bahamas
starts moving around the SW periphery of the atlantic ridge,
possibly even accompanied by weak mid level vorticity centers.

Lastly assuming Monday's airmass is not dissimilar from today's
(barring Sunday's slight drying trend) thunderstorm initiation will
coincide very roughly with the eclipse start time (partiality begins
at 119 pm, MAX eclipse is at 248 pm). Even the seabreeze will likely
not represent a clearing line (like today) as it will simply draw in
moisture along the coast from the bahamas system. Assuming the
cirrus does not hang tough like the more agressive solutions i'm
afraid eclipse viewing will be quite luck-based and be relegated to
areas that have holes in the storms and deeper towering cumulus.

Locally these lucky spots look to be rather few and far between.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... High pressure will reside just off
shore extending down from off the coast of the mid atlantic
region on tues. At the same time a broad ridge aloft on tues
will be displaced by a trough digging down from the northwest
through mid week. This trough will push a cold front into the
carolinas on Wed reaching the eastern carolinas late Wed into
thurs and slowly moving off the coast into fri. The models show
it pushing far south and east to bring drier weather on Friday
into Fri night across the forecast area.

Initially expect moisture convergence along the coast early
tues along periphery of high with some convection along or off
shore becoming enhanced by sea breeze front tues aftn. By wed,
cold front reaches into the carolinas with gradient tightening
ahead of it with moisture pooling over the eastern carolinas and
dynamics aloft on the increase. Pcp water values will be above 2
inches with convection on the increase ahead of the front as it
drops southeast into the area Wed night into thurs. Drier air with
lower temps expected by weeks end as front moves off the coast
by fri. Looks like we may even see a decent northeast surge
behind front by late fri. As it looks now, inland should begin
to dry out thurs night with moisture slow to leave the coast on

Temps will start out warm into mid week ahead of the front, near
90, but will drop off to the mid 80s thurs into Fri as front
pushes south and east.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... Showers and thunderstorms have moved offshore so
that should be it for the night as far as cig vsby restrictions
go due to precipitation. Good confidence ifr vsby conditions
will develop in the early morning hours for at least some of the
terminals, possibly all, due to fog. Clearing skies this
evening will enhance fog development, especially where heavy
rain fell today.

Extended outlook... Expect flight restrictions from isolated to
widely scattered tstms Sun aftn, increasing in coverage by tue
through wed. Flight restrictions will also be possible each
early morning due to stratus fog wed.

Near term through Sunday ...

as of 7 pm Saturday... Latest obs show quite variable winds due
to convection moving across the waters, with seas in the 3 to 4
ft range. Thunderstorms will move east of the waters, after
which winds will settle back into a SW direction of around 10
kts. Forecast in good shape. Have adjusted timing of showers and
thunderstorms activity with the latest update. Previous
discussion follows:
south waves will govern the sea spectrum, running in 5-6 second
intervals, around 3 feet, but up to 4 ft outer waters tonight.

Isolated to scattered tstms will move to the nne-ne through the
weekend. Winds will be of a light character this period as the
far western edge of the bermuda high extends to shore, with a
weakening front wavering near the coast. As a result chop will
be on the light side through Sunday. Isolated tstms will impact
the waters through the weekend.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Light southwesterly flow Sunday night may get
disrupted for a time and go somewhat variable on Monday as poorly
defined front trough moves close to the area. Not much changes
Monday night as the boundary remains very weak and possibly
retrogrades slightly. Over the marine environment this may allow a
southerly wind direction to slightly dominate even as speeds remain
capped at 10kt and seas 2ft.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Southerly winds around high pressure
extending down from off the mid atlantic coast will become more
se tues aftn in sea breeze but will remain basically 10 kts or
less. Winds will begin to veer and increase out of the
southwest tues night into Wed as a cold front makes its way into
the carolinas tightening the overall pressure gradient. This
front will make it into the eastern carolinas Wed night into
thurs with stiff SW winds continuing ahead of it. The winds will
begin to veer late thurs into Fri as the front makes its way
into and through the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will be on the rise ahead of the front through mid week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... Mjc
short term... Mrr
long term... Rgz
aviation... Rek
marine... Mjc rek rgz mrr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 10 mi48 min 1014.4 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 28 mi93 min SW 5.1 83°F 1015 hPa80°F
SSBN7 32 mi138 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 32 mi70 min SW 9.7 G 14 83°F 85°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC6 mi43 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist77°F77°F100%1015.6 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi88 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds82°F80°F94%1015.2 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi25 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F80°F94%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S4S4S3SW4CalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmS4S5W3NW6
1 day agoCalmSW3SW3S3SW3S4S4CalmSW4SW4SW4SW5SW9S6S6SW7SW6SW8SW4S5S4S6S6S5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW3SW5SW5SE5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sun -- 01:01 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:26 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Sun -- 02:11 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:45 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:36 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:53 PM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.