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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 956 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Rest of today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers.Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Showers.Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 956 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A cold front will drop into the area today, increasing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. The front will stall offshore for the weekend keeping rain chances in the forecast. High pressure will build into the area next week with drying conditions.

FXUS62 KILM 191355 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 955 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rain chances increase today as a cold front moves across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances. High pressure next week leads to drying conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend.

UPDATE
Tweaking visibility grids a bit but main impacts are to TAFs...public fcst grids still holding up quite well.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front currently just to our north will push down and stall in the area through the day, enhancing our potential for storms. As the ridge axis aloft moves offshore a trough with a surface cold front will approach from the west. Ahead of this feature, pockets of vorticity will move overhead. Instability from daytime heating with the stalled frontal boundary will lead to scattered activity developing in the afternoon. Inverted V soundings suggest a potential wind threat with any stronger storms' downdrafts along with the possibility for a small hail threat. The majority of the area is in a marginal (threat 1 of 5) risk for severe weather outside of coastal SE NC where there's more inhibition. As the cold front to the west approaches overnight, the lack of instability will cause precip with it to become isolated in coverage. This activity will move offshore before daybreak Sat as the cold front moves through. Highs in the mid to upper 80s away from the SE NC coast.
Lows in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Cold front in the area Sat morning gradually slips offshore during the day, ending up parallel to the flow aloft in the evening. Rain chances Sat will depend heavily on how quickly the front moves offshore. If the front pushes offshore before midday, drier mid- level air will work its way into the area, significantly limiting rainfall chances. The post front environment is marked by a strong inversion based around 850mb. Even isentropic lift is negligible post front. The best chance for getting rain will be along the coast, if a sea breeze can develop and help bring some of prefrontal air back onshore. Confidence in rainfall Sat is lower than normal due to the limiting factors mentioned above. Temperatures continue well above climo Sat regardless of where the front is with no cold air to be found. Highs will ranges from upper 70s on the cold side of the front and lower 80s on the warm side.
Temperatures do start trending closer to climo late Sat night as the front begins to slip farther south and a northerly flow regime moves in.

Frontal zone lingers in or just south of the area Sat night through Sun night. Weak surface waves develop along the front then start to deepen as they feel the influence of a southern stream shortwave crossing the Gulf Coast. Increasing moisture Sat night and increasing mid-level lapse rates as heights start falling will lead to elevated convection developing over coastal SC Sat night then moving northeast in NC after midnight. The lows pass offshore later Sun and Sun night with the location of the front determining how close the lows are to the forecast area. The strength of the lows and their proximity to the coast will determine how much rain ends up falling, but rain seems all but certain. There is likely to be a sharp rainfall gradient in or near the forecast area. Cloud cover, rain and increased northerly flow on the west side of the aforementioned lows will keep highs Sun well below climo while lows end up near climo.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low confidence right away Mon as a robust, moisture laden shortwave moves across the forecast area. Hard to imagine this feature won't bring at least some isolated showers to the area, and the guidance is split on location and timing of this feature. Would not be shocked to see cloud cover and rain chances increase with further updates. Flow aloft flattens in the wake of the exiting shortwave Tue through Thu, leading to fast moving surface features and keeping coldest air north of the area. High pressure moves overhead Tue then offshore Wed as dry cold front moves across the area. High pressure with Canadian origins then settles over the area Thu. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster next week with well below climo temps Mon/Mon night trending close to climo Tue/Tue night and above Wed before dropping back near to below climo late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A IFR/LIFR cloud deck is making its way through SE NC at this time, over KILM. Timing for KLBT/KCRE/KMYR will be around 12Z, but at the same time sunrise should start to scatter out this stratus and restrictions should be brief. Then the afternoon will see scattered thunderstorm activity with restrictions hard to pin down. Another possibility is stratus at the coastal terminals due to sea fog, but low confidence with this as well.
A cold front will move through near the end of the TAF period with winds coming around to the NW.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the weekend due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Sub-SCA conditions. A stalled front in the area will increase shower and storm chances this afternoon with the possibility for strong wind gusts. Another cold front from the west will move over the waters overnight into Sat morning. Wind direction with the competing boundaries will be a bit tumultuous, going from the E this morning to more SE in the afternoon and then SW overnight. Speeds should be near 10 kts. Seas will be 2-3 ft with a 1ft E swell at 12-14 seconds, a 1-2 ft SE well at 8-9 seconds, and a NE to SW wind wave.

Saturday through Tuesday: Brief period of southerly flow on Sat before front sags south of the waters and high pressure starts building in from the north Sat night. North to northeast flow will continue through Tue with potential for northeast winds in excess of 20 kt at times Sun night and Mon as low pressure passes east of the waters. Northeast surge Mon night into Tue may bring about another round of winds in excess of 20 kt late Mon night before speeds drop down near 10 kt Tue. Seas build from 2-3 ft Sat to 3-4 ft Sun and 3-5 ft Sun night and Mon. Continued strong northeast flow will keep seas 3-5 ft Mon night before seas gradually start to diminish on Tue. Initially a southerly wind wave and a southeast to east swell will be present, but the development of enhanced northeast flow will lead to an easterly wind wave becoming dominant on Sun and persisting through Tue with wave periods gradually increasing.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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