Thursday, July20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Briarcliffe Acres, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:30 PM EDT (02:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:29AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 852 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt early. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 852 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across the waters and persist thru the upcoming weekend. A cool front will drop southeastward Mon and stall just inland and north of the local waters Tue.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Briarcliffe Acres, SC
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location: 33.77, -78.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210129
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
929 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated in the days ahead,
as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot
and humid conditions through the weekend. Rain chances will
increase early next week as a surface trough deepens inland.

Near term through Friday
As of 900 pm Thursday... Have removed all pops this evening
and overnight and continued this trend thru daylight Friday.

Various model soundings indicate mild temps, relatively
speaking, at the 500 mb level. Model soundings indicate below
-4 degrees celsius. This will likely keep a lid on diurnally
driven convection overnight thru Friday and have adjusted pops
downward as a result. Cloud coverage overnight thru Friday
has also been reduced with sea breeze induced CU and moderate
cu possible on fri. Did not include any fog for the overnight
although if winds do go calm, portions of the fa could see
patchy ground fog. This more of an aviation concern.

Any fog that occurs should burn off by 8-9 am leaving
possible patchy haze across the fa until winds pick up to
5 kt or greater. Only tweaked the overnight temps by a degree
or 2, nothing really noteworthy.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 3 pm Thursday... NVA and height rises associated by the
retreating upper low working together with ambient subsidence
associated with offshore convection to keep the much of the
coastal plain not only rain-free but also hampering cu
development. The area is shaping up for a muggy night with a
continuation of light winds. Any patches of fog will only be of
aviation concern as visibilities below 5sm do not appear in the
cards. Tomorrow differs from today in that the aforementioned
sources of downward vertical motion will be no more. With higher
temps aloft and weak surface warm advection afternoon temps
will soar into the mid 90s coast and upper 90s inland. There was
some talk of a heat advisory but boundary layer hydrolapse
rates seem to call for dewpoints that will fall during peak
heating and preclude the 105f apparent temperatures needed
across most of the area. This idea may be revisited by the
evening and overnight crew however as the WRF in particular is
less enamored with the idea.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 3 pm Thursday... Deep layer high pressure will dominate
the conditions through the short term period. Mid level moisture
will be lacking and most of the guidance is keeping the area
dry through the period. Temperatures will be several degrees
above normal most notably with Saturdays highs with upper 90s in
the most northwest inland zones. We will once again be on the
cusp of a heat advisory depending on the dry air mixing down in
the afternoon which may modify the apparent temperature just
enough to preclude the 105 clip needed for three hours.

Overnight lows remain steamy in the middle to upper 70s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... Long term will be marked by gradually
decreasing temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation
as ridging at the surface and aloft breaks down and a cold front
approaches and then moves across the eastern carolinas. A
consensus of guidance has the front stalling in our vicinity by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, where it will linger into Thursday.

Above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday will drop back down
to or below climo for the remainder of the long term. Tuesday
looks to be the best day for convection, with deep moisture in
place in advance of the impending front.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
As of 00z Friday... Looking at mainlyVFR conditions this fcst
package. The only exception will be from 07z-12z at which time
vsby may reduce to 3sm to 5sm in br due to calm winds. South to
sw winds at 5 to 10 kt will diminish to sw-wsw at 4 kt or less
after midnight. Models do not show any LLJ for Fri early morning
and therefore have indicated tempo calm winds with MVFR vsby from
br. Progs indicate the mid-levels ie. 500mb will warm to -3 to
-4 degrees c on fri. This relatively mild air aloft will
keep a lid on thunderstorm development with diurnally driven cu
possibly reaching moderate CU stage before flattening out.

Could see 4k to 5k sct to possibly bkn cu. Did not even include
vcts or any prob30 groups for thunder. The sea breeze
circulation will start early with the myrtles seeing southerly
10 kt winds by midday becoming gusty in the 10-15kt g20kt. The
ilm terminal will see the sea breeze push thru around 19z with
winds slightly lower both sustained and gusts when compared to
the myrtles. The inland terminals will see wsw 4 to 8 kt from
13z thru 22z backing to the s-ssw at 5 to 10 kt due to the
aggressive sea breeze boundary pushing well inland.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR with possible morning MVFR from
br. Brief MVFR ifr possible in scattered showers and tstorms
mon and Tue due to a slowly approaching cold front from the nw.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 900 pm Thursday... Ssw-sw winds staying active in the
10 kt to occasionally 15 kt for the overnight period based
on latest obs and trends and model guidance. Have indicated
gusts to 20 kt, especially near shore, during Fri aftn and
evening due to an active and inland progressive sea breeze.

Significant seas will run 2 to 3 ft tonight and around 3 ft
during Friday. Tonights seas will primarily be dominated by
a 1 to 2 foot, 7 to 8 second period pseudo ground swell
from the ese. Of note, an underlying 1 foot ese longer period
ground swell at 14 to 15 second periods, is showing up across
the nc coastal and offshore buoys, mainly north of CAPE fear.

It may affect the local waters from surf city to CAPE fear,
with significant seas increased to a solid 3 feet overnight
into daylight fri.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 3 pm Thursday... Winds have been light and somewhat
variable today but a southwesterly direction will gradually
come to dominate through the period. The reason being the
pressure gradient-disturbing upper low will
retrograde adequately for the atlantic high to re-assert
itself. Spectral plots show twin peaks of wave power at both 8
and 13-14 seconds, the latter being a ese swell that will
persist. As the wind picks up by up to a category the dominant
period will shorten some but overall wave heights will not
change significantly.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Bermuda high pressure will keep southwest
winds flowing across the coastal waters through the period.

Some daytime increase in winds are expected with a decent sea
breeze Saturday as it will be one of the warmest days of the
year. Also the inland through will be enhanced by the heat which
in turn will strengthen the low level jet overnight Saturday.

Expect speeds to increase from the standard 10-15 knot range to
15-20 for a few hours. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but a
few five footers may develop overnight depending on just how
much winds increase.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Circulation around high pressure over the
western atlantic will keep winds from the SW through the period.

An approaching cold front may briefly tighten the gradient
enough to warrant exercise caution headlines or a small craft
advisory late on Monday, but confidence on this is low at this

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... Dch mbb
short term... Shk
long term... Rek
aviation... Dch

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 9 mi55 min 1015.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 18 mi83 min SW 9.7 G 12 81°F 80°F1016.2 hPa
SSBN7 19 mi151 min 1 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi106 min SW 8 82°F 1016 hPa76°F
41108 43 mi61 min 82°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC6 mi38 minSSW 1010.00 miFair81°F75°F85%1016.8 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi46 minSW 710.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1016.9 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC17 mi36 minS 37.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW5W3W4W4W4W3W3NW3CalmNW3NW43S5S7S10S9S10S10S11S12SW13SW12SW10SW10
1 day agoSW5SW6SW9SW6W5NW3NW4NW44CalmW4N5W654S9S7S10S10SW10S11S8CalmW4
2 days agoS5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm--SW7CalmN3Calm4SW5S9S5S7S9S8S10S10S9S6S7

Tide / Current Tables for North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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North Myrtle Beach
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Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:56 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Thu -- 01:25 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.