Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Briarcliffe Acres, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:27PM Sunday March 18, 2018 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:14AMMoonset 7:42PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 834 Am Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne late this morning and afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 834 Am Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front south of the waters today will lift north as a warm front tonight and Monday, with periods of rain reducing visibility. A series of low pressure centers, will impact the area Tuesday through late Wednesday, with gusty offshore winds developing mid week in wake of a strong cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Briarcliffe Acres, SC
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location: 33.77, -78.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181300
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
900 am edt Sun mar 18 2018

A cold front south of the area today will lift north as a warm
front late tonight and Monday, bringing occasional light rain.

A series of developing surface lows, will bring wet conditions
Monday night through Wednesday, with colder and drier weather
arriving Thursday. Frost and freeze conditions may occur early
Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm into next weekend, as
low pressure approaches from the west.

Near term through tonight
As of 9 am Sunday... Low overcast pushing south, will thin and
transition to cumulus, as low level drying gradually sets in
and march Sun sends thermal energy. Temperature adjustments
were needed as a result of this blanket, and max-t values
across the northern interior of SE nc were trimmed a degree or
two, because of the expected 'delayed warming'. No significant
changes otherwise, with a partly cloudy mostly sunny afternoon
shaping, and temperatures cracking 60.

As of 3 am Sunday... A short-wave trough seen in the goes-east water
vapor imagery is in virginia and northwestern north carolina. This
short-wave trough will shift to the atlantic coastline north of the
forecast area. The impact of this wave has been the convection that
developed to our north along the frontal boundary and will move into
the northern part of the forecast area before sunrise. This wave
will force the frontal boundary back south today. The models are
depicting the front to shift into to georgia on Sunday.

A developing surface low pressure area over the southern plains will
cause the surface front well to our south to begin shifting
northward with isentropic lift of the 295k surface seen to begin
late Sunday. The condensation pressure deficit does not indicate
saturation of the layer until after 12 utc Monday.

So for precipiation expectations, a dry Sunday is expected with low
stratus on the north side of the front dissipating by mid-morning.

The increase of cloud cover will begin late Sunday with a slight
chance of showers after midnight mainly over northeast south

Maximum temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the frontal
passage. Temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the northern
portions of southeast north carolina to the lower 70s in
williamsburg and georgetown counties. Lows Sunday night will range
from the lower 40s in the north to around 50 in the southern
sections of northeast south carolina.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 400 am Sunday... Basically looking at unsettled wx
conditions thruout much of this period. A whopping 1015mb high
affecting the area early Monday, will give way to an approaching
low pressure system from the west. At the same time, a warm
front will lift northward, finally crossing the fa late mon
night. The low will have hooked up with the warm front mon
night and both will cross the fa together. This will enhance the
precipitation and as a result, have increased the QPF across the
board specifically Mon thru Mon night. A somewhat of a dry
punch will push across the carolinas during Tue and if enough
insolation also becomes available, temperatures should easily
break into the 70s across most locations. Then it's back to
reality, with a cold front progged to drop south across the fa
tue evening. In it's wake, much colder air will slowly
infiltrate the fa with Wed lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s... This compared to the previous 2 nights with lows in the
50s and 60s. Models are in some disagreement with how much cold
air makes it to the fa as a weak to modest negatively tilted
mid-level S W trof drops southeastward. It's path with respect
to the ilm CWA will be crucial for the possibility of wintry
pcpn that may occur immediately after this period Wed into wed
night along with 32 degree temps.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 344 pm Saturday... Low pressure pulling off the coast will
bring a lull Tuesday, before another low develops and brings
periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday, changing
over to snow or a rain snow mix Wednesday evening. Forecast low
temperatures and thermal profiles, depict a brief period of
frozen precipitation is possible across much of the area. Sharp mid-
level drying will end pcpn prior to daybreak Thursday. Significant
accumulations are not expected due to warmer ground, but a "frost'
advisory, or 'freeze warning' may be needed very early Thursday,
favored over interior SE nc, but could reach into parts of NE sc.

Did not include thunder this period because of stable cooler low
levels, but elevated instability will exist to some degree. QPF tue-
wed night averages to 3 10" to 5 10".

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12 utc... A frontal boundary is sagging southward through the
cwa. Behind the front, ceilings are lowering. It is unclear whether
they will lower to ifr or not. There are pockets of ifr at this
time, but will stick with mostly MVFR at this time. Later today,
skies will scatter withVFR conditions from this afternoon through
the end of the forecast period. Light winds tonight.

Extended outlook... Periods of MVFR Sunday through Wednesday.

Chances for convection increasing Monday through Thursday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 9 am Sunday... Scec conditions along the very outer waters
with fspn7 reporting 5.6 ft gusting to 21 kt, but the majority
of the 0-20 nm waters will hold at 3-4 feet with NE gusts to 20
kt on occasion today, and no headlines planned. Dominant wave
periods should hold around 6 seconds, and north wind-waves will
interact with southerly wave energy, making for bumpy seas.

As of 3 am Sunday... Currently southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots
are occurring at frying pan shoals buoy with seas of 4.5 feet.

Closer to the coast seas are running 2.5 feet 10 miles southeast
of wrightsville beach where winds are southwest at 10 knots.

The frontal boundary which has been waffling north to south and
south to north the last few days will again shift southward through
the entire forecast area by today. The wind direction will change
quicly from the southwest to the northwest later today. Overnight
the winds will continue veering to the east and southeast by late
Sunday night.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 400 am Sunday... Monday looks like it could partially be a
washout, meaning light rain initially will become more showery
with possible thunder late Mon thru early tue. A warm front will
lift across the local waters by early Tue with east to southeast
winds ahead of a warm front will veer to the SW after it's
passage early tue. The sfc pg will tighten late Mon night and
during Tue as a sub-1000mb area of low pressure having hooked up
with the warm front, pushes off the va capes or NE nc by tue
morning. The lows accompanying cold front will drop southward
and clear the local waters by midday tue.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 344 pm Saturday... This is shaping up to be a difficult
marine period, as a series of strong low pressure systems impact
the coast. Gusty SW winds 20-25 kt Tuesday and Tuesday night,
will shift to north equally strong, if not stronger Wednesday
as N and NW winds kick up in a cold air surge. Gusts to near
gale force are not out of the question Wednesday over the outer
waters, with current numerical wave guidance at fpsn7 assigning 7
feet Wednesday. Very cold temperatures will greet mariners early
Thursday, in a moderate, but biting, offshore wind. The
tightened sfc pg from late Mon will actually further tighten tue
into Tue night given the strength of the sfc low. Combined with
caa after the cfp, winds should reach scec and sca
thresholds. There is a gale possibility but that will depend on
any further strengthening of the sfc low and also its placement
and movement. Nevertheless, not a favorable 2 days to spend on
the open atlantic waters. Significant seas will see their lull
during Mon at 1 to 3 ft. WAA and veering winds will result in
seas building to 3 to 5 ft during tue. And after the cfp, NW to
n wind directions will limit the fetch for which wind waves to
build from. Nevertheless, will see 4 to 7 ft seas come tue
night into wed.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Drh mjc
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 9 mi55 min 1015.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 18 mi77 min NNE 12 G 18 56°F 55°F1011.9 hPa
SSBN7 19 mi163 min 2 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi100 min NNW 8 65°F 1012 hPa60°F
41108 43 mi55 min 56°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC6 mi32 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1013 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC8 mi29 minNNE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds66°F55°F68%1012.9 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC17 mi30 minN 9 G 155.00 miOvercast with Haze61°F53°F77%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW7SW11W13
1 day agoNW7
2 days agoS17S17SW19

Tide / Current Tables for North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
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North Myrtle Beach
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Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:50 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.