Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Palos Verdes Estates, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday January 17, 2019 1:47 AM PST (09:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 842 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming S 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 16 seconds. Widespread showers in the evening, then rain.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 17 seconds, building to 8 ft dominant period 17 seconds in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 16 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then slight chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to 7 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat..From point mugu to santa Monica, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Elsewhere, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming nw around 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 16 seconds, subsiding to 3 ft at 16 seconds after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 842 Pm Pst Wed Jan 16 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 7 pm pst, a 970 mb low was centered 600 nm nw of san francisco, with a cold front extending S and sw of the low off the central and southern ca coast. The cold front will push across the coastal waters later tonight and Thu morning. Very large seas will overspread the coastal waters Thu and Thu night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Palos Verdes Estates, CA
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location: 33.81, -118.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 170552 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
952 pm pst Wed jan 16 2019
updated aviation discussion

Synopsis 16 757 pm.

Moderate rain is likely through Thursday as low pressure system
moves across the area. Lingering showers are possible over some
areas south of pt. Conception through Friday morning. High
pressure is expected to build over the west coast, bringing fair
skies and warmer conditions through early next week.

Short term (wed-sat) 16 815 pm.

***update***
warm-frontal showers developed over much of the area late this
afternoon into the early evening, with some rainfall rates up to
0.50 inch per hour noted especially on south-facing slopes from
the southern sba county coast into l.A. County. Plenty of reports
of urban flooding have been received with this heavier rain, and
flood advisories were issued for much of the area from southern
santa barbara county thru southern vtu and l.A. Counties. The band
of heavier showers has moved off to the east and were affecting
mainly eastern l.A. County at 8 pm. Additional showers will likely
develop and persist over the area thru later this evening out
ahead of the main cold front just off the central coast.

The main frontal system is still on track to push into the central
coast late this evening then move across vtu l.A. Counties late
tonight into early Thu morning with periods of moderate to heavy
rain, and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue mainly
for slo sba counties with the frontal passage.

***from previous discussion***
this system has more moisture to work with than the previous
storm and what should be more perpendicular low level flow to the
south and southwest facing mountain slopes. This is a much warmer
storm with most of the upper level dynamics well to the north but
there is some upper level diffluence later tonight into Thursday
and stability parameters are marginally supportive of some
isolated thunderstorms, mainly sb slo counties with the best
chance over the outer coastal waters. Rain rates are expected to
peak in the .50-.75" hr range which is just enough to justify a
flash flood watch for the first year burn scars in los
angeles ventura counties which would include the woolsey, hill,
south, and stone burns. Other burn scars and foothill mtn areas
rates will likely be below thresholds but there could still be
some minor mud and debris flows as well as the typical rock mud
slides during the peak of the event later tonight through Thursday
afternoon.

Rain totals will likely have a more typical coast valley to
foothill mountain ratio due to the upslope effects and less
chances for convection. Coast valleys expecting 1-3" and
foothill mtns 2-5". No snow with this system as freezing levels
are already over 10k ft and snow levels likely will remain at or
above 8000' for the bulk of this event. Could see some light
accumulations down to 6000-7000 feet late Thursday into early
Friday as we transition to a colder west northwest flow behind
the system.

Gusty south winds expected for many areas and likely advisory
levels for the mountains and most areas north of pt conception.

Rain expected to taper off later Thursday with only lingering
showers on the north facing mountain slopes Friday morning.

Locally breezy west to northwest winds expected Thursday night
into Friday then transitioning to a santa ana pattern and much
warmer Saturday with highs in the mid or even upper 70s possible
as a strong upper ridge develops. At this point it doesn't look
like santa ana winds will be strong enough for a wind advisory but
there likely will be some gusts into the low to mid 30s in the
favored areas of ventura los angeles counties.

Long term (sun-wed) 16 510 am.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with large
scale features through early next week. High pressure will
continue into Saturday with weak offshore, but break down some as
a weak impulse moves into northern california on Sunday. This
upper level feature will bring cooler onshore flow briefly on
Saturday before it becomes an inside slider as it dives into the
great basin Sunday night into Monday. Offshore gradients will
tighten up and set up a moderately strong santa ana wind event
early next week.

Aviation 17 0551z.

At 0530z at klax... There was no marine inversion present.

Moderate confidence in the 06z tafs due to uncertainties in the
timing of changes in cig cats between lifr ifr MVFR tonight thru thu
evening. However, there is hi confidence that these conditions will
affect the airfields during the period as another weather system
affects the region. The timing between flight cats may be off + - 1
to 3 hours. There will also be gusty E to S winds at many airfields
thru tonight, and lingering gusty SW winds at kwjf and kpmd on thu.

Ifr
klax... Moderate confidence in the 06z TAF due to uncertainties in
the timing of changes in cig cats between lifr and ifr thru thu.

However, there is hi confidence that these conditions will affect
the airfield during the forecast period. The timing between flight
cats may be off + - 1 to 3 hours. Conditions should improve to MVFR
thu evening and overnight. There will also be gusty SE winds up to
23 kt through tonight.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in the 06z TAF due to uncertainties in
the timing of changes in cig cats between lifr and ifr thru thu.

However, there is hi confidence that these conditions will affect
the airfield during the forecast period. The timing between flight
cats may be off + - 1 to 3 hours. Conditions should improve to MVFR
thu evening. There will also be gusty SE winds up to 28 kt through
thu morning.

Marine 16 844 pm.

For the outer waters and northern inner waters, gale warnings are
in effect through 3 am Thursday. After 3 am Thursday, winds will
continue at small craft advisory (sca) speeds into Thu morning.

For sba channel, E to SE winds are expected to persist thru thu
morning. Then, winds shift to the west Thu afternoon before
decreasing Thu evening. Of course, seas will likely be at or above
sca levels Thu afternoon thru Fri afternoon.

For the southern inner waters, SE winds are expected to be at sca
levels this evening and persist through thu. Seas will likely be
at or above SCA levels Thu afternoon through Fri afternoon.

Across all waters, the gusty SE winds will create choppy
and rough seas through tonight.

Beaches 16 817 pm.

Large westerly swell will continue to affect the coastal waters
through early thu, along with fairly steep southerly wind waves. A
high surf advisory is in effect for all west facing beaches.

Extremely large westerly swell moving into the coastal waters
thu and Thu night will cause surf to increase. It will likely
reach high surf warnings levels on central coast beaches thu
afternoon, with surf building to 18 to 22 feet and sets to 25
feet. A high surf warning has been issued there for Thu afternoon
through Fri evening.

With this very large surf and moderately high astronomical tides,
there will be a good chance of moderate coastal flooding and
beach erosion, especially around the Friday morning high tide.

A coastal flood advisory has been issued. High astronomical tides
will continue through the weekend, but surf will begin to subside
Friday night.

There is a good chance that high surf warning level surf will
affect west facing beaches south of pt conception Thu night and
fri, and later shifts may have to expand the high surf warning and
the coastal flood advisories southward into these areas.

In addition to coastal flooding and beach erosion issues, there
is a potential for breaking waves across the morro bay and ventura
harbor entrances late Thu and fri. Hazards associated with the
high surf will include strong and dangerous rip currents, breaking
waves near shore, and waves washing over rock jetties.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 2 pm pst Thursday for
zones 34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 9 am pst Thursday for zones
34>37-51-52. (see laxnpwlox).

High surf warning in effect from 2 pm Thursday to 9 pm pst
Friday for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Coastal flood advisory in effect from 11 pm Thursday to 9 pm
pst Friday for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect until 9 pm pst Friday for zone
39. (see laxcfwlox).

Flash flood watch in effect from 5 am pst Thursday through
Thursday afternoon for zones 40-41-45-46-54-88-547.

(see laxffalox).

Wind advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Thursday for zones
53-54. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Gale warning in effect until 3 am pst Thursday for zones
645-670-673. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 9 am pst Thursday for
zones 650-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pst Thursday for
zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
Large high tides and surf could bring coastal flooding Saturday.

Gusty offshore winds could develop over the weekend into early
next week.

Public... Mw sirard
aviation... Sirard
marine... Sweet sirard
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Delerme
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PXAC1 8 mi29 min SE 7 G 8
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 10 mi35 min 60°F1021.3 hPa
BAXC1 10 mi29 min SSE 9.9 G 12
PFDC1 10 mi29 min ESE 11 G 14
PSXC1 10 mi29 min SE 8 G 9.9
AGXC1 11 mi29 min SE 13 G 15 60°F 1021.2 hPa
PFXC1 11 mi29 min SE 11 G 12 61°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 12 mi47 min 61°F4 ft
46256 13 mi47 min 60°F3 ft
PRJC1 13 mi29 min SSE 12 G 13
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 14 mi47 min 60°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 14 mi35 min SE 8.9 G 11 60°F 60°F1021 hPa
46253 20 mi17 min 61°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 34 mi27 min S 12 G 16 61°F 60°F1019.6 hPa61°F

Wind History for Los Angeles Berth 161,
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA9 mi54 minESE 57.00 miOvercast60°F59°F96%1021.2 hPa
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA9 mi54 minESE 67.00 miOvercast60°F59°F96%1021 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA14 mi54 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast61°F60°F97%1021.5 hPa
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA15 mi56 minE 49.00 miOvercast63°F59°F87%1021 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA16 mi60 minVar 44.00 miFog/Mist60°F59°F96%1021.2 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA19 mi49 minSSE 610.00 miLight Rain60°F60°F100%1022 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA23 mi54 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast61°F57°F90%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from TOA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------CalmCalmNE7NE7E12
G19
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E10E10E10E10E10E4--Calm
1 day ago--------------------NE6NE6E6E5E6SE5E10E8E8E8E8E5E7NE5
2 days ago--------------------SW5CalmNE5E7E8E12E12
G21
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G17
NE8E5E6E6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for King Harbor, Santa Monica Bay, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California
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El Segundo
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:13 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:57 AM PST     5.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:16 PM PST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:09 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM PST     3.42 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.43.13.94.75.35.55.24.53.42.210.2-0.2-0.10.41.22.12.93.33.43.12.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.