Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:56PM Sunday August 20, 2017 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 4:19AMMoonset 6:16PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 328 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..E winds 10 kt or less...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 kt or less...increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt...becoming ne 15 kt and gusty. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 328 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak front near the coast will dissipate overnight. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters through Tuesday. A moderately strong cold front will cross the coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will build in Thursday and Friday with ne winds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, SC
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location: 33.81, -78.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201925
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
325 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
A weak front will slowly dissipate across the area through
tonight. Moisture from a trough to our south will make its way
on shore over the southeast coast through Monday. High pressure
will expand across the area from the western atlantic Monday
thru Wednesday, continuing the heat and high humidity. A cold
front will move across the eastern carolinas from the northwest
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will
build down behind front bringing drier weather for the weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 230 pm Sunday... Cumulus field has expanded with some
enhancement, especially along the sea breeze front. Generally a 20-
30% pop should suffice along the coastal areas with isolated chances
farther inland. Lowered pops this evening with the loss of heating
however fog stratus are expected to develop and increase in coverage
overnight. GFS nam diverge with moisture profiles during Monday and
specifically during the eclipse with the NAM probably too agressive
with deeper moisture return during the day. Expect to see the most
clouds along sc coastal areas with partly to mostly cloudy skies,
and partly cloudy skies elsewhere once the stratus fog dissipates.

Focused highest pops across the southern areas as well during
tomorrow (30-35%) with slight chance to low chance pops across
remaining areas. Lows are expected to range from the lower 70s
inland to the mid 70s at the coast. As a result of the disparity in
the cloud cover during Monday favor a blend toward the warmer less
cloudy GFS mav high temperatures.

Latest etss for downtown wilmington has predicted levels right at
minor coastal flood thresholds with high tide this evening. In the
absence of heavy rainfall and a fetch that would push levels above
criteria will hold off on a coastal flood advisory at this time.

Subsequent high tides with during the next couple evenings should
exceed thresholds as a result of the new moon.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Ridging aloft to the west will combine
with atlantic ridge, to produce center of ridge aligning right
over the southeast Mon night through tues. This will allow for
increased subsidence and dry air aloft which should limit
convection, but shallow tropical moisture will continue to be
present in a s-se low level wind flow. Essentially, a tropical
airmass will be present with pcp water values up near 1.75 to 2
inches. Overall expect localized CU and convective development
mainly along sea breeze pushing inland through the afternoon and
some convection mainly off shore overnight. The NAM and GFS were
both trying to show a piece of energy rotating around the ridge
from the south possibly producing some clouds or slight chc of
shwrs toward daybreak wed, but overall not expecting much
coverage through the period.

Temps will be on the warm side with 90 to 95 most places during
the day and in 70s at night.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Primary feature influencing extended forecasts
is cold frontal passage late Wednesday and early Thursday. This
is supported by gfs ECMWF upper patterns, both of which also
migrate canadian high pressure into the region Friday through
the weekend, imparting a slightly drier and cooler feel than
late. Goes-16 shows the circulation near 20n north of puerto
rico, which may fester off the fl coast near a stalled boundary
early next week, potentially deepening. Regardless of intensity,
the expectation is this feature will lift to the north slowly,
remaining offshore of our coast. A few strong storms are
possible late Wednesday as wind shear aloft and low- level
convergence increase as the upper trough edges in. Wednesday may
very well be the warmest day of the extended period, prior to
canadian high pressure intrusion.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
As of 18z... Best chances (albeit low) are at the coastal terminals
through the afternoon as they are tied to the sea breeze front.

Can't entirely rule out and isolated -shra tsra at kflo or klbt
either but for now will focus vcts as the coastal terminals. Diurnal
cumulus field will wane with the loss of heating. MVFR ifr CIGS and
vsbys are possible overnight into the early morning hours as
stratus fog development occurs. Confidence is highest at the inland
terminals with moderate confidence at the coastal terminals.

Convective trends will be somewhat similar tomorrow compared to
today however the higher convective chances will be at kcre and
kmyr.

Extended outlook... Increasing coverage of showers tstms
by Tue through wed. Flight restrictions will also be possible
each early morning due to stratus fog wed.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... Light onshore flow prevails in a weak
pressure gradient so far this afternoon. The flow is expected to
veer to a southerly direction later in the day and southwest
this evening. A weak surge may briefly build down the coast
early Monday morning, then quickly veer to the southeast and
south during the day as the sea breeze takes hold and the old
front washes out. Seas will average 2-3 ft through the period.

Widely scattered showers and tstms are possible late tonight,
and they could get closer to the long bay inshore waters during
the morning before the diurnal shift occurs.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Atlantic high pressure will produce a
southerly flow through the period. As it builds in, it will
veer around from SE to s. A trough will move east tues night
into early Wed helping to push winds around to the s-sw and
increase slightly. Overall winds will be 10 kts or less through
early tues with an increase up to 10 to 15 kts late tues into
tues night. Seas around 2 ft Mon through early Tue will increase
to 2 to 4 ft late Tue into Tue night. A longer period swell up
to 10 seconds will mix in with wind waves tues through tues
night.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... The extended marine period will become a
bit bumpy ahead of a cold front Wednesday, as SW winds gust to
20 kt and higher Wednesday afternoon. A wind shift will migrate
across the 0- 20 nm waters early Thursday. Strong canadian high
pressure will interact with the front offshore to produce ne
winds 15-20 kt Thursday into Friday. As a result, 'caution' and
even 'advisory' headlines are possible this period. Seas of 3-5
feet can be expected Wednesday afternoon through much of Friday
before subsiding, and up to 6 feet well offshore. A few storms
may be strong Wednesday night through Thursday as a cold front
crosses the waters and radar updates are encouraged.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Rgz
long term... Mjc
aviation... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 11 mi123 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 11 mi55 min S 7.8 G 12 85°F 87°F1017.7 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 16 mi45 min 1017.3 hPa
41108 36 mi33 min 87°F3 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 41 mi78 min SE 7 85°F 1018 hPa78°F
WLON7 49 mi45 min 84°F 84°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC2 mi70 minS 710.00 miFair86°F79°F80%1017.8 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC15 mi73 minno data10.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F78°F79%1018.3 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC23 mi68 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy90°F75°F63%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3SE5S4S5SW10S11SW11SW9SW6SW4SW7SW4W3W3W33CalmCalmSE6SE7S6S7S7SE5
1 day agoS13SW14S16SW14SW16
G23
SW13SW11SW12SW10SW8SW10SW10SW8SW7SW7W93S8S11S14S17S16W12
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2 days ago3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmSW6S6SW7SW10SW11SW8SW8SW5SW55SW454S11S13S14S12S14

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 03:04 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:26 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:12 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:55 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.80.2-0.10.2122.73.13.12.82.21.30.5-0.2-0.5-0.30.61.82.93.53.83.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, west end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:16 AM EDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0-00.723.54.75.45.24.43.11.60.4-0.4-0.40.41.93.65.26.26.35.74.53.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.