Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 4:02 PM   Moonset 4:04 AM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 931 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 5 seconds. Rain.Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 foot at 6 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Tue night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

AMZ200 931 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A front will drop into the area and stall through Sunday. High pressure builds in from the north Monday and Tuesday followed by another cold front Thursday.

FXUS62 KILM 200150 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 950 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Showers and thunderstorms across the area this afternoon could produce a briefly strong wind gust or large hail. A cold front stalls near the area this weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances, mainly Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure next week leads to drying conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend.

UPDATE
Little change this update. Still small potential for a few showers and isolated thunder overnight. Most areas will remain dry.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Deep convection in the very near term should taper off to just showers with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tough to say with what coverage showers continue overnight as the current activity isn't being handled too well. But given the approach of a cold front have carried some minor POPs til about midnight.
Areas of fog then expected overnight (according to some guidance but not all) seemingly most likely in areas that see rainfall. Coastal areas may also be favored as some sea fog may develop. Saturday will be our last warm day ahead of the front with highs in the mid 80s away from the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A cold front will be in the process of pushing offshore Saturday night. Developing low pressure along with front will produce showers across the nearshore waters, spreading northward toward the coast overnight. Ejecting shortwave and falling heights will allow the surface low to deepen on Sunday morning with widespread rain expected to engulf the area by noon.

Isentropic lift peaks during the afternoon and stratiform rain increases in intensity. Heaviest rain will likely be inland. The low deepens offshore on Sunday evening as it interacts with the Gulf Stream and the heavier rain transitions to the NC coast.
Rain gradually comes to an end late Sunday night as the front gets dragged farther offshore by the exiting low. Daytime high temperatures on Sunday will be well below normal due to cool air advection and evaporative cooling. High temperatures are trending downward with the latest forecast, but the current highs in the upper 50s and low 60s could continue to decrease in future forecast issuances. It is possible that some areas could struggle to get out of the low 50s.

Rainfall totals at present reflect some uncertainty in the exact track of the low and intensity of isentropic lift. The majority of the area can expect up to around a half an inch of rain. Some areas of higher totals are possible with the GFS indicating that the I-95 corridor and coastal NC could see around an inch of total rainfall through Monday morning due to maximized isentropic lift and strengthening offshore low, respectively.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High confidence that a cold front will be positioned well offshore by Monday morning and the entirety of the area will be entrenched in a cold air mass (by late April's standard). An upper low traversing the southern Appalachian region moving east towards South Carolina will likely bring light showers Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The low will be moving quickly and dry air following the trough axis should bring an end to rain chances rather quickly.

Uncertainty in the position and speed of the shortwave does exist and it may still be too early to say for certain that Monday will be unsettled. Regardless, expect cool temperatures to continue, moreso if afternoon showers develop. Highs only in the low or mid 60s (nearly 10-15 degrees below climo).

Dry air following the shortwave, high pressure settling overhead on Monday night, and cool air in place will allow overnight lows to drop well into the 40s. Areas west of I-95 will be close to the upper 30s. No frost or freeze products anticipated. Clouds near the coast in NE flow may develop and keep temperatures warmer near the coast.

Low pressure exiting the region and high pressure building over the central US will bring drier conditions for the remainder of next week. Below normal temperatures and clear skies should make for a pleasant Tuesday. Cool overnight with low temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Warmer on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. This front will bring cooler temps for Thursday, but transient high pressure positioned well north of the area will keep the cooler air locked to the north and allow highs to reach the mid 70s. Ridging and offshore high pressure bring a warming trend on Friday through next weekend.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR has been persistent at coastal terminals for much of the afternoon and evening. As yet, this has been limited to the Grand Strand and ILM. Winds are expected to become more southerly then southwesterly overnight along the coast, admittedly at speeds of 5 KT or less. Based on this, we show cigs at coastal terminals improving to VFR overnight as the. This could be a slow process.
mechanism creating the IFR cigs shuts down. It should be noted that some guidance shows IFR cigs developing at all terminals overnight but this seems unlikely given recent history.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions possible through the weekend due to daily shower chances from a stalled front. High pressure building in late Mon into Tues should return dominant VFR.

MARINE
Through Saturday... Southerly component to return from S to N this evening as backdoor boundary lifts to the north and another front approaches from the west. Wind speeds will remain capped at 10kt for the most part meaning small wind waves while the similarly small SE swell continues.

Saturday Night through Wednesday Night... Light and variable winds on Saturday night as a cold front pushes offshore will become breezy NE flow on Sunday. Developing surface low offshore on Sunday will see winds increase to 15-20 knots. As the low strengthens, gusts up to 25 knots are possible Sunday night and early Monday. The prolonged fetch of NE winds could create wind waves up to 4-5 feet on Monday as a secondary low develops near the coast.

NE winds continue early next week behind the exiting low and high pressure settling overhead. Winds and seas return to 15 knots or below. SW winds return on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina, Tide feet

Dunn Sound
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Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:09 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:19 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
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Dunn Sound, west end, South Carolina, Tide feet

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