Wednesday, July26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:18PM Wednesday July 26, 2017 12:33 AM EDT (04:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 kt...diminishing to 10 kt or less, then becoming se late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 10 kt...becoming n. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Building to 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt...becoming e. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 25 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move south across the waters late tonight and Wednesday. The front will dissipate Thursday followed by weak high pressure Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 260030
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
830 pm edt Tue jul 25 2017

Synopsis
Isolated to scattered storms will become more numerous Friday
and Saturday, as a moderately strong frontal system arrives
at the coast. A slight cooling and drying trend may occur Sunday
into early next week, as this system is kicked offshore.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 830 pm Tuesday... Multiple boundry interactions and an
unstable airmass fueled isolated strong convection this evening,
but with the sunset activity is now on the decline. Will knock
pops back with the next update. Otherwise forecast is good to
go. Previous discussion follows:
potential for widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
with the sea breeze through the afternoon. Additional storms are
possible tonight as a cold front drops southward across the
forecast area. The front is expected to drift south of the
forecast area during Wednesday and become increasingly diffuse.

Dewpoints will lower across the northern zones while the b best
chance for showers thunderstorms will be across the southern
zones during the day. Northeast to easterly wind in the wake of
the front will help hold temperatures to the mid 80s at the
beaches on Wednesday. Followed a blend of mav met numbers
through the period.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 215 pm Tuesday... Very interesting synoptic setup through
mid- week despite very weak surface features and gradients. The
interesting aspect is focused mostly at and above 500mb as a
nearly stationary shortwave spins across N fl in response to a
persistent ridge in the west, and jet level winds increase and
dive SW between the ridge and the trough. This drives a strong
deformation axis across the carolinas where NE 250mb winds
converge with more typical westerly 250mb winds along a jet axis
off the coast. As is typical with deformation axes, most of the
precip occurs SE of this feature, as drier air advects behind
it. This is clearly evident on forecast profiles with
exceedingly dry air developing above 600mb, which should limit
convective coverage considerably on Thursday. This dry air,
combined with weak confluence into the deformation axis, and a
weakening surface front to the south will preclude much in the
way of convection Thursday, and have opted to remove any mention
even along the sea breeze despite temperatures around 90.

Wednesday night will be dry as well, minus a few isolated
showers well south, with mins in the low 70s, while subtly
increasing column moisture ahead of an approaching front and
developing S SW winds will keep mins several degrees warmer
Thursday night, falling only into the mid to upper 70s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 215 pm Tuesday... An unseasonably amplified upper trough
becomes the primary feature and key player for late week and
weekend sensible weather. This will translate to elevated rain
chances late Friday and Saturday as this system ushers a fairly
strong surface trough across the coast. ECMWF and GFS clear
this boundary off the coast into early Sunday, the GFS much
stronger. Both suggest therefore some drying and cooling, but
of differing magnitude. A blend still brings surface dewpoints
into the 60s early next week, helping to take off the bite of
high absolute humidity values. A dry mid-level air intrusion
will curtail deep convection Sunday through early next week. A
few showers could linger and remain favored closer the coast in
proximity to higher moisture and the oceanic front, but the
overall coverage should trend down Sunday onward. Temperatures
slightly above normal Friday at the start of the period, may dip
below normal from Sunday forward, as cool air advection pushes
into the balmy sea air.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 18z... Good confidence primarilyVFR through the overnight
hours for all terminals. Low confidence stratus will briefly
afflict the coastal terminals around sunrise with CIGS from 1.5
to 2.0 kft, along with 5 or 6 nm in haze shortly thereafter.

Looks like convective threat has greatly diminished with the
sunset, so have no mention of shwrs or tstms overnight.

Extended outlook... Possible MVFR conditions with some flight
restrictions with any convection Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 830 pm Tuesday... Latest obs show seas of around 3 ft with
sw winds of around 10 kts. No changes needed with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:
a cold front will drop south across the waters during tonight.

Southerly winds ahead of the front will become variable for a
brief period tonight prior to shifting to a northeast-easterly
direction overnight into Wednesday morning. Easterly flow will
prevail through Wednesday afternoon with speeds of 10-15 knots.

Seas are expected to be 3 ft or less through the near term
period.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 215 pm Tuesday... A cold front will be dropping across the
southern waters Wednesday night before stalling south of the
area on Thursday. This leaves E NE winds less than 10 kts
Wednesday night, gradually shifting to E SE and eventually
coming around to the SW Thursday night as the front dissipates
and high pressure becomes dominant once again. Speeds through
the period will be 10 kts or less, with the exception being
within the near shore sea breeze Thursday when gusts to 15 kts
are possible, and again very late Thursday night when 10-15 kt
winds will overspread the waters. These light winds will allow
the SE swell to be dominant until the wind wave amplifies
Thursday night. Seas will be 2-3 ft through the period but the
average period will begin to shorten late.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 215 pm Tuesday... Wind direction will become changeable
this period, but the good news is that wind-speeds will decrease
into the weekend, as a front lays up along the coast then
offshore. Tstms will become more numerous along the front
however Friday night and Saturday, so a radar update should be
on the checklist first part of the weekend. Gusts to 20 kt from
sw likely Friday out ahead of the front, and could be stronger
so an SCA is not out of the question yet for Friday. Seas 2-4
feet this period because of initially gusty winds, then because
of swell over the weekend. Tstms will decrease in coverage
Sunday, although the gulf stream and outer waters may remain
unsettled due to the offshore front.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rek srp
short term... Jdw
long term... Mjc
aviation... Rek
marine... Mjc rek jdw srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi63 min 82°F3 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi34 min 83°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi85 min WSW 1.9 G 3.9 82°F 83°F1018.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi45 min E 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 82°F1017.8 hPa
WLON7 28 mi45 min 80°F 86°F1018.6 hPa
SSBN7 29 mi93 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi43 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 82°F3 ft1018.3 hPa78°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi85 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 82°F 83°F1018.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi85 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 82°F 82°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi43 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F79°F95%1018.6 hPa

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Last 24hrW6SW4SW6SW4W4CalmCalmCalmW7SW8SW6S6S6SW6SW6S9SW7S6SW5SW4SW6CalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Wed -- 04:34 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:52 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:07 PM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.63.41.90.7-0.2-0.20.51.62.83.84.64.84.43.52.210.1-0.20.41.52.844.85.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:29 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:53 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:13 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.220.7-0.3-0.30.61.933.84.44.64.13.22.110.1-0.10.61.93.244.64.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.