Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:59 PM EDT (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:05AMMoonset 11:11PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1014 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1014 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure centered offshore will extend across the area today. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and then stall through much of next week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day. SW winds will prevail through much of the week as high pressure off the se u.s. Coast continues its foothold across the area waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 291725
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
125 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Today should be the hottest day of the week with temperatures in
the 90s away from the beaches. Thunderstorms may return tonight
and Tuesday ahead of a cold front. This front should stall
across the area Wednesday and Thursday, returning north again on
Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1030 am Monday... No changes necessary to the forecast with
the mid morning update. 06 utc and hourly guidance from high
resolution models still show any chances for convection this
evening. Previous discussion follows:
a strong round of convection last night
beneath a mid-level impulse has moved offshore, with a surface
trough exiting the coast this morning. While mid and high level
debris cloudiness will again scatter through the sky this morning,
subsidence behind the departing impulse and increasingly dry air
behind the convection will create a hot but sunny memorial day
across the area.

Elongated high pressure which has been stretched along the gulf
coast for days now, will recenter offshore today in response to mid-
level ridging blossoming up the southeast coast. This thickness
advection will push the strongest band of mid-level westerlies NW of
the area at least through this evening, and the combination of
subsidence beneath this along with the factors mentioned above will
create a hot and dry day. Today is forecast to be the hottest day of
this stretch, with widespread 90s forecast even right to the beaches
as westerly wind pins the sea breeze at least into the late aftn.

However, drier air aloft noted on soundings will allow for the
dewpoints to mix out, and thus have kept all heat index values just
below 100 degrees today - but still the hottest so far of 2017.

Guidance is in very good agreement that a vorticity impulse rotating
sw to NE around the ridge will spawn another round of convection
this evening W SW of the area, and then push NE into the cwa. Most
of this activity is forecast to occur tonight, but forecast soundings
suggest considerable MUCAPE of 1000-15000 j kg of MUCAPE above the
nocturnal inversion along with 35-40 kts of 0-6 km shear. This will
likely manifest as increasingly organized convection beneath the mid-
level impulse, and another MCS with the potential for strong winds
and hail may move across the area tonight. Inland locations may have
the best chance with this setup, but have carried chc pop for nearly
the entire CWA tonight. Any convection will move offshore before the
end of this period, leaving drier conditions and mins a degree or
two either side of 70.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... 500 mb high pressure will move farther
offshore Tuesday and Wednesday to near bermuda. Upper level low
pressure will dig a trough across the great lakes. In between
these two systems will be a flow of mid to upper level moisture
originating from the western gulf of mexico streaming northeastward
across the carolinas. This moisture should remain overhead
Tuesday, but will thin out below 600 mb on Wednesday.

Tuesday appears to have favorable conditions for convection,
perhaps arriving in two rounds. The first could be ongoing as
the Sun rises Tuesday morning as the last in a series of Monday
night vort maxes pass overhead. After a lull in the late
morning through early afternoon hours, another round of
convection should develop during the mid to late afternoon hours
with the arrival of a second vort max. Forecast pops have been
bumped up to 40-60 percent, highest just inland from the coast
where seabreeze convergence should exist. Model forecast CAPE as
large as 3000 j kg will coexist with weaker mid-level winds than
we've seen the past couple of days. Despite the good buoyancy
the organized severe weather threat is overall not as high as we
saw yesterday or today.

A weak cold front sinking southward from the mid-atlantic region
will settle into the area Wednesday morning. Any northwest winds
behind the front will be fleeting as Wednesday afternoon's
seabreeze should send the boundary back to the north. A cooler
and much drier lower atmosphere will make it harder to generate
showers and storms Wednesday and our forecast pops are only 20
percent. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s both days, with
nighttime lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Gfs ECMWF in agreement on the evolving h5
pattern in slowly migrating a broad but low amplitude trough
eastward across the great lakes and ohio valley then into
new england and SE canada this period, while holding an upper
ridge of varying amplitude over florida and the bahamas. This
will allow a series of weak fronts and upper disturbances to
move to our coasts, offering daily chances of thunderstorms.

Late may early june heating coupled with pwats values between
1.50-1.80", and numerous surface boundaries, will support
convection much of the extended forecast period. Next weekend
potentially could turn wet, as enhancement of column moisture is
drawn from the gulf of mexico by low pressure over texas on
Saturday, tracking to the ohio valley during Sunday. With the
abundance of clouds, daytime temperatures will run near normal
for the season, middle to upper 80s, but above average minimum
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... Somewhat of a repeat of Sunday's scenario with
mostlyVFR conditions expected through the period. There is the
possibility of thunderstorms developing later this evening
across the western areas and traversing the entire area slowly
west to east overnight, hence the numerous prob 30 groups in
the taf's.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

More typical scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday through Friday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1030 am Monday... A very light offshore flow is still in
place with the latest buoy observations but this should be
concluding in the next couple of hours with more of a synoptic
southwest flow developing. No changes to the forecast. Previous
discussion follows:
weak trough will move offshore this morning, causing winds to
shift to the west while easing to 5-10 kts. This change will be
short lived however, as high pressure expands from the south,
winds will quickly return to the S SW and increase once again to
10-15 kts and persist at these speeds through tonight. The
exception will once again be within the near shore sea breeze
circulation, where a local backing along with gusts up to 20 kts
are forecast this aftn eve. A low amplitude SE swell will again
be masked by a 5 sec SW wind wave, and seas will become
uniformly 2-3 ft today and tonight.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... 1023 mb high pressure anchored offshore
well south of bermuda will move little through the period. This
should maintain a light to moderate southwest wind across the
carolina coastal waters. A weak cold front will slide into the
area from the north Wednesday morning, however any shift to
northwesterly winds appears to be brief as the afternoon
seabreeze should push the front back inland. Seas should average
2 feet through the period.

Thunderstorms will be a concern for mariners, particularly
Tuesday and Tuesday night as models show a series of upper level
disturbances and good moisture crossing overhead. By Wednesday
the atmosphere dries out enough to hopefully make thunderstorms
more isolated in coverage.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Near typical summer-like marine
conditions this period as SW winds prevail with 2-3 foot seas.

High pressure will remain centered just to the SE and E of
bermuda, and weak troughing inland should maintain SW wind flow
wed to fri. The sea spectrum will be comprised of s-ssw waves
1-2 feet every 5 seconds and ese waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds.

Tstms will be active this period, moving generally from land to
the coastal waters, and some may be strong from afternoon
heating. Getting a radar update before heading out may be in the
best interest of safely this period as we transition into a
more active lightning and TSTM wind gust season.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Jdw shk
short term... Tra
long term... Mjc
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi42 min 78°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi74 min SW 5.1 83°F 1016 hPa72°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi51 min S 9.7 G 12 79°F 78°F1014.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi60 min 78°F2 ft
WLON7 28 mi41 min 88°F 78°F1014.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi41 min S 11 G 12 79°F 78°F1013.7 hPa
SSBN7 29 mi119 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi39 min SW 9.7 G 9.7 76°F 76°F1015.1 hPa73°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi51 min SW 9.7 G 12 78°F 79°F1014.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi51 min S 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 78°F1014.3 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi74 minS 510.00 miFair85°F72°F66%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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SW7SW7SW5W3CalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW8SW8SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:36 AM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:56 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.34.431.60.4-0.2-0.10.61.82.93.84.44.53.92.91.70.6-0.1-0.10.61.83.24.35.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:17 AM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:39 AM EDT     4.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
54.23.11.90.6-0.3-0.10.92.23.344.44.43.82.81.70.7-0.1012.43.74.44.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.