Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 1:03 PM EST (18:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1107 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1107 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A warm front just inland from the coast, will push further inland while at the same time lifting northward. A strong eastward moving cold front, with waves of low pressure moving northward along it, will push off the mainland of the carolinas late Thu morning and offshore Thu afternoon. Gale conditions are expected late tonight into Thu afternoon. A secondary cold frontal passage will occur Friday followed by modest high pressure during this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231705
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1205 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front just inland from the coast, will push further inland
while at the same time lifting northward. A strong eastward moving
cold front, with weak waves of low pressure moving northward
along it, will push across the area late tonight thru early
thu, and off the mainland of the carolinas late Thu morning and
to well offshore Thu afternoon. Expect a nice warm-up ahead of
the cold front with widely scattered showers this afternoon
becoming more numerous tonight along with an isolated thunderstorm
possible Thu morning. Pcpn will end once the cold front moves
off the coast midday thu. A secondary cold frontal passage will
occur Friday followed by modest high pressure and near normal
temperatures for this weekend into early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1145 am Wednesday... Due to the inland progression of the
warm front earlier this morning and with it progged to lift
northward out of the ilm CWA during this afternoon... Sfc
parameters were updated and amended based on trends having
developed after the wfp. Will continue with low chance showers
this aftn into this evening. Progged moisture profile of the atm
from this aftn into this evening indicated plenty of dry air
above 800 mb. With both atlantic and gulf moisture influence
increasing and combining, the dry air above 800mb level will
quickly moisten, with pws progged to reach 1.50+ inches for
several hrs Thu morning thru midday thu, basically peaking just
prior to the cfp. Models indicate high shear low CAPE for
thunderstorm potential. Progged winds of 50+ kt at just 800 to
1100 feet off the sfc Thu morning. The atm is progged to remain
stable in the low levels thus preventing these winds from
mixing to the sfc. There is a very slight increase with
instability after daybreak Thu that will have to be kept an eye
on. But for now, did not change the thunderstorm wording we
currently have.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 3 am Wednesday... Latest sfc analysis shows 1035 mb high
pressure centered just off the va nc coast with 1007 mb low
pressure over mo. The high pushes farther offshore today
allowing for onshore flow to continue over the local area.

Lowered rain chances for this morning due to the strength of the
high and weak forcing for ascent. There will be some increasing
warm air advection through the day while a warm front moves
northward and with moisture profiles somewhat increasing through
the day, maintained a slight chance- chance of a shower
especially over western areas. Temps noticeably warmer than the
last couple days... Highs in the low mid 60s.

For tonight, maintained low chance pops out ahead of the
approaching cold front with continued meager forcing. Best
chance of rain is between 09-15z Thursday in association with
the cold front and potent mid-level shortwave trough. Rainfall
totals up to around an inch possible area-wide. Also expect
gusty winds out ahead of the front, from both the gradient winds
and moreso any convective elements showers, due to a 70-80 kt
low-level jet. Will mention gusts to 30-40 mph in the hwo.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Cold front will be in the region as the
period begins, likely with showers ongoing as well as the
possibility of an isolated thunderstorm along the coast.

Although the event looks to be a typical high shear low cape
setup, the timing is not at all favorable. The front will be
crossing the area during the time of lowest CAPE with only a
strong low level jet to aid forcing. Additionally both the gfs
and ECMWF are showing signs of convection along the fl gulf
coast, something that typically hinders convection across
coastal carolina. At this point do not anticipate any severe
weather, but something to keep an eye on. Cold advection lags
the front and Thu afternoon will likely end up mild with gusty
west winds. Might even see some clearing before the Sun sets.

Cold air arrives Thu night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Thickness and 850 temps rapidly drop, with the later
dropping as much as 8 degrees c in 12 hours. Mixing will help
keep lows overnight near climo Fri morning despite clearing
skies and deep dry air. High continues to build in from the west
fri into Fri night keeping temperatures near to below climo
despite plenty of Sun in the afternoon. Precipitable water drops
under 0.30" with forecast soundings showing a bit of a
subsidence inversion. Boundary layer winds weaken and become
more easterly Fri night as the center of the high moves closer
to the region. Winds may not go completely calm, especially
along the coast, but radiational cooling should be able to have
some effect. Lows will likely end up below climo with temps
ending up in the mid to upper 20s for much of the area.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 am Wednesday... Mid-level trough will remain over the
eastern CONUS through the period, with the axis remaining west
of the area into next week.

-temperatures will be near to below climo through the weekend,
trending slightly above next week.

-west to northwest flow aloft will prevent any meaningful moisture
return, precipitable water will be at or below 0.60" through the
period.

-low pressure will pass well off the coast early next week as
another low passes northwest of the area. This low may move a
cold front and increased rain chances into the area late tue.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... Southeast winds will continue to increase this
afternoon as the gradient tightens in advance of a cold front.

Ceilings should remainVFR through the afternoon, with a light
shower possible at ilm. Tonight, winds shift to the south
southwest with gusts to 30 kts possible after midnight. Another
player could be sea fog tonight with dewpoints approaching 60f
and a southwest wind, however confidence is low due to the wind
speeds. Thursday, heavy showers, with isolated thunder, will be
ongoing at daybreak, ending from west to east at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... BecomingVFR by Thursday night. Predominately
vfr Friday through Monday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 1145 am Wednesday... Gale warning remains in effect for
all waters. With the warm front having pushed onshore earlier
this morning, have updated winds based on latest trends
commencing after the wfp. Will see se-sse winds reaching sca
thresholds during the mid to late afternoon and especially this
evening. Gale thresholds will be met for sse-s wind gusts up to
35 kt after midnight, peaking near 40 kt from ssw-sw winds
immediately ahead of the cold frontal passage Thu morning. This
will be the time at which the sfc pg will be it's tightest.

Showers and embedded tstorms will be most widespread late
tonight up until the cfp midday thu. Sea fog may become a
visibility problem late this aftn thru early Thu morning but
confidence is too low to include in the fcst at this time.

Significant seas will resemble "victory at sea conditions"
during the next 24 to 36 hrs. This a result of increasing
windspeeds but veering wind directions, from ese thru wsw,
during the next 24 to 36 hrs.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 3 am Wednesday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
daytime today with high pressure just off to the ne. Expect
10-20 kt SE winds with 3-5 ft seas. Winds and seas then ramp up
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Converted the gale
watch to a warning, from 06z-18z Thursday, with frequent gusts
up to 35-40 kt expected due to a 70-80 kt low-level jet despite
cool ssts. Seas up to 8-11 ft. Chances for sea fog not high
enough to include mention in the forecast attm.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Gale warning ongoing at the start of the
period will transition to a small craft advisory as cold front
pushes east of the waters and westerly flow develops. Gradient
starts to relax Thu afternoon with west flow becoming northwest
thu night as colder air arrives. Northwest winds around 15 kt
thu night drop to around 10 kt Fri and Fri night, becoming north
and then northeast as they slowly weaken. Double digit seas are
expected prior to the passage of the cold front. Once offshore
flow develops seas will start to diminish, but seas are likely
to remain over 6 ft into Fri morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft on fri
slowly subside ending up 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Surface high over or just south of the
waters at the start of the period will gradually shift
southeast. Weak gradient will keep winds light into Sun before
more defined gradient leads to increasing west-northwest flow.

Late in the period the highs moves farther south and light west
or even southwest winds may develop. Speeds under 10 kt during
the period along with varying direction will keep seas 2 to 3 ft
sat and 2 ft or less on sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
ncz107.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 1 pm est Thursday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Dch mas rgz
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi33 min 53°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi55 min SSW 7.8 G 14 56°F 54°F1028 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi33 min 54°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi55 min SE 9.7 G 14 55°F 52°F1026.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi33 min ESE 6 G 8 56°F 1027 hPa
WLON7 28 mi33 min 62°F 45°F1026.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi33 min SSE 19 G 25 67°F 66°F1027 hPa56°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi55 min SW 9.7 G 16 61°F 58°F1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi83 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F55°F79%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE5E5E6NE8NE3CalmE3NE5E5E4E3CalmNE6E4CalmSE6SE6E4SE5SE6SE6SE8SE4
1 day agoN14
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N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5N5N4N5N6N6N9NE7NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Wed -- 02:54 AM EST     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:14 AM EST     5.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:43 PM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.4-0.6-1-0.40.92.43.955.55.34.43.11.60.2-0.6-0.60.21.42.73.84.54.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM EST     -0.92 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:35 AM EST     5.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:54 PM EST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:04 PM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.20.9-0.3-0.9-0.70.31.83.24.45.15.24.63.420.7-0.3-0.7-0.20.92.23.34.14.54.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.