Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:29PM Saturday March 25, 2017 11:41 AM EDT (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:38AMMoonset 4:03PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 749 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 749 Am Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A southerly return flow will persist around atlantic high pressure through the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday and Tuesday...moving across the waters on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251202
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
802 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
Above normal temperatures will prevail much of the upcoming
week as high pressure offshore brings southerly winds. A series
of low pressure systems will bring a chance of rain Monday into
Tuesday, and again late next week.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 8 am Saturday... Temperatures this morning range from
around 50 well inland to around 60 at the beaches. Still looks
to be a warm day, with highs in the mid 70s most places, with
mid 60s at the beaches. A few spots in our sc counties could see
upper 70s. Previous discussion follows:
a southerly return flow will maintain an a warm and slightly
more humid air mass across the eastern carolinas. An extensive
field of strato CU over the waters was getting pushed onto the
coast in this deep SE flow... Mainly south of CAPE fear. Aloft,
the mid to upper ridge will continue to slip farther east
allowing for a SW flow in the mid to upper levels to throw some
higher clouds over the carolinas. The combination of these two
will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area into
the morning. Other CU will develop with the heating of the day
and convergence along sea breeze as it develops and pushes
inland through the day. There even may be a stray shower, but
not great enough chc to warrant putting it forecast.

Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with
the afternoon high temps in the mid 70s and overnight lows in
the mid 50s Sat night. A cool sea breeze will keep the coast
cooler and will push inland through the afternoon.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/
As of 4 am Saturday... Mild and moist regime this period as a
surface low tracks from the middle mississippi valley into the
great lakes, prompting moderate warm air advection. Overall
rain chances will remain low-end, but better on Monday as a
short-wave approaches the area from the west. Qpf-wise however
do not expect a great deal of rain. Heating inland may offer hit
and miss decent amounts from convection, and instability indices
warrant inclusion of tstms Monday as column moisture deepens.

Each afternoon a robust sea breeze will spread cooling into the
coastal interior, with an uptick in gusty winds by the coast.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/
As of 4 am Saturday... Surface low over the ohio valley Tuesday
will track NE into new england by Wednesday, propelling a cold
front across the carolinas, and a chance of showers and a few
tstms. The front will scoot offshore Wednesday. High pressure
will very briefly build in from the nw, but a progressive
southern stream system will snap us right back into a warm air
advection pattern Thursday, with a storm and decent rainfall
potential late Thursday into Friday. It appears right now high
pressure will build in just in time to bring a drying and slight
cooling trend into Saturday. Temperatures overall to run a
little above normal for late march this period.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 12z...VFR is expected at all the terminals.

Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus, 3500 to
5000 ft, to develop for the inland terminals while more or less
persisting for the coastal terminals. There will be a tendency
for the lower clouds to erode in the wake of the stabilizing
seabreeze at the coastal terminals. Can not rule out a spotty
shower, but not enough of a chc to be included in any taf.

Extended outlook... Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours Sun and in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through tue. ExpectVFR
conditions once cold front moves through on wed.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 8 am Saturday... Light southerly winds with seas of right
around 3 ft this morning will show little change through the
near term. Forecast good to go with no changes. Previous
discussion follows:
a S to SE return flow 10 kts or less will continue across the
waters through the period. With temps rising into the mid 70s
this afternoon, a decent sea breeze will develop helping to
produce a spike in the on shore flow over the near shore waters,
as well as a slight backing of the winds to a more SE on shore
direction. Seas will show a slight rise through the period with
the southerly push but will basically remain between 2 and 4 ft.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...

as of 4 am Saturday... Smooth sailing this period with southerly
winds 15 kt or less and seas 3 feet or less. An isolated shower
or a TSTM is possible Monday as a disturbance passes just to
the north of the area. SE swell waves of 2-3 feet every 10-11
seconds will move landward born from a surface low NE of the
bahama chain, but no advisories are expected, only that sea
heights will be slightly elevated with given winds and up to 4
ft outer portion. Light to moderate chop can be expected this
period. Sea fog Monday near shore is not out of the question.

Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...

as of 4 am Saturday... Showers and a few tstms can be expected
Tuesday as a frontal system crosses the waters. This will also
cause winds to go flat into Wednesday with very weak high
pressure or a back door cold front, but resuming an onshore
component into Thursday, as another low pressure approaches
from the west. Seas 3-5 feet in a combination of SE swell and
local wind waves. A small craft advisory or exercise caution
statement may be needed by Thursday evening as the low nears
for gusty southerly winds and elevated seas.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Rek/rgz
short term... Mjc
long term... Mjc
aviation... Mjc
marine... Mjc/rek/rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi54 min 57°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi56 min SSW 2.9 69°F 1027 hPa57°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi42 min 57°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi33 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 56°F1028.4 hPa
WLON7 28 mi41 min 68°F 56°F1028 hPa (+0.9)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi41 min S 5.1 G 8 63°F 56°F1027.4 hPa (+1.1)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi31 min SSE 9.7 G 14 70°F 72°F1028.5 hPa53°F
SSBN7 29 mi71 min 2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi33 min S 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 62°F1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi56 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast69°F53°F59%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E5S5S5SE5S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W4
1 day agoNE10
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E5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3N5NE3N4NE3CalmSE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:32 PM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.41.32.53.54.34.64.53.92.91.80.80.10.10.81.93.144.54.543.120.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:18 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 PM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.923.34.14.54.84.63.92.81.810.50.61.42.73.84.44.74.84.23.121.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.