Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:11PM Monday May 20, 2019 2:49 AM EDT (06:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 6:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1214 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 1214 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will linger offshore this week, resulting in an extended period of southwest winds, warm temperatures, and manageable seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200418
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1218 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will linger offshore through the end of the week.

A backdoor cold front will bring some very small rain chances
Monday through Tuesday. Once the front lifts out to the north
Thursday a summerlike hot airmass will move into the carolinas.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 1020 pm Sunday... No significant changes were needed to
the ongoing forecast with the late evening updates. Patchy mist
is possible in predawn to sunrise, favored mainly interior ne
sc.

As of 619 pm Sunday... Popcorn cumulus inland of fair weather
variety will dissolve like butter with loss of surface heating.

Movies from satellite show little impediments for clear sky to
debut, opening the curtains to an unobstructed night-time sky,
not very long following night-fall. Gusts are easing with latest
10-meter wind forecasts showing sustained speeds dropping to
around 6 mph by midnight. This may aid in patches of mist 2
miles or greater visibility, over interior NE sc into daybreak,
but short-lived after sunrise.

As of 300 pm Sunday... Relatively quiet conditions as high
pressure aloft remains the dominant force behind mostly clear
skies and dry conditions tonight. Some model guidance is
hinting at fog development again overnight and into the morning
hours, but did not have enough confidence to place into the
forecast.

A weak front will approach the region Monday and may spark a few
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Model sounding profiles have a
decent amount of instability, but little or no wind shear to keep
long lived storms moving. Expecting a few isolated storms to pop
up, but severe weather is not anticipated. Spotter activation is
not expected at this time.

Short term Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Despite the mid level ridge in place through
the period a backdoor cold front sagging into the area will call for
some very low rain chances. Slightly higher rain chances may be
warranted for northern zones as a shortwave disturbance streaks by
Monday night. The GFS has another trailing vort Tuesday but it
appears to be borne of feedback and then advected across the area.

Otherwise the main headline will be above normal temperatures as the
building ridge provides deep layer warmth. Some slightly
cooler closer to climo temps may sneak into northeastern counties
Tuesday night behind the sagging boundary.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... High pressure building in behind backdoor cold
front to put off heat wave by one day. With the boundary
weakening lifting out by Thursday however the stage will be set for
summertime heat as 595 dam ridge builds over fl panhandle. Lower 90s
coast mid 90s inland will become commonplace for much of the rest of
the period with little to no rain chances. Two things will prevent
advisory level heat indices: the ridge being displaced to our sw
rather than overhead as well as offshore high pressure offshore
remaining weak precluding much advection of moisture dewpoints
locally.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
As of 06z... Except for a low probability of MVFR ground fog
inland from the coast this morning,VFR conditions should
continue. Models suggest an approaching weak front could help
develop isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening, but
probabilities are generally 30 percent or less. Modest southwest
surface winds should back around the south 10-15 kt near the
coast this afternoon with the seabreeze.

Extended outlook... PredominatelyVFR through mid week as high
pressure dominates. Slight chance of brief MVFR conditions each
morning from low stratus and or fog.

Marine
As of 300 pm Sunday... High pressure dominates with quiet
weather today and tonight. Onshore winds through Monday between
10 and 15 kts and waves between 2 and 3 feet mainly from the
southeast between 4 and 6 seconds. Offshore thunderstorms are
possible Monday afternoon as a front approaches from the west,
which could bring locally higher seas and wind gusts.

Southwesterly flow will lighten and veer Monday night into
Tuesday with the approach of a sagging cold front. Very light
onshore flow is then slated for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Seas
will tend to stay in the 2-3ft range. Easterly flow continues
into Wednesday but then a switch to southerly flow slated by
Thursday as the boundary lifts back to the north.

Tides coastal flooding
Corrected at 1215 am Monday... Astronomical high tides will
create higher than normal tides tonight for area beaches,
including wrightsville and myrtle beaches, around or just after
sunset. Advisory level tides are expected to be reached for
inland new hanover county, and a coastal flood advisory has been
issued for this evening between 10 pm and 2 am Monday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt early this morning for
ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Mck
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi49 min 74°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi41 min SW 9.7 G 14 74°F 74°F1017.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi49 min 74°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi41 min SSW 12 G 18 74°F 75°F1018 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi55 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 73°F1018 hPa
WLON7 28 mi55 min 74°F 78°F1017.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi29 min SSW 9.7 G 12 76°F 1018.7 hPa67°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi41 min W 9.7 G 14 75°F 75°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi69 minS 510.00 miFair74°F68°F83%1018.3 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.31.90.7-0.1-0.10.71.82.93.84.34.33.72.71.60.6-0.1-00.71.93.24.355.35

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:50 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:51 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:20 PM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.310.1-0.20.31.32.43.344.13.831.90.90.1-0.10.31.42.63.74.65.15

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.