Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 25, 2019 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 712 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers late this evening and overnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..NE winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Isolated showers.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Isolated showers.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 712 Pm Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight and strong high pressure will build in from the north causing strong winds and rough seas Tuesday into Thursday. High pressure to the west will build over the waters late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 252327
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
727 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
An approaching cold front will bring a chance of rain overnight.

Breezy and cooler weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds from the north. The high will move off the
coast late Thursday, with a warming trend into next weekend. A
cold front may bring a few showers next Sunday.

Near term through Tuesday night
As of 4 pm Monday... CU developed inland and remain clustered
along the sea breeze boundary just inland leaving the coast with
mostly sunny skies. Gusty SW winds, along with westerly
downslope flow in the low levels have helped to push temps up
into the mid 70s this afternoon. Could see an iso shwr this
aftn, but the best chc of convection will come later today into
this evening ahead of cold front approaching from the west. Pcp
water level reaches up close to 1.25 inches this evening, but
instability seems weak and remains elevated as the moisture
increases through the column this eve. Soundings also show a
defined dry layer in the first few thousand feet. Overall expect
showers increasing across the i-95 corridor between 8p and 10p
this evening. SPC has area in general thunder with only isolated
tstm coverage expected. A broken line of shwrs iso storms will
progress slowly eastward overnight as the storm movement remains
out of the sw. The front should drop south of the area by
daybreak with the last shwrs should exiting the nc coast as a
shortwave makes its way off the coast. Cooler air will feed in
from the NW with temps making it down just below 50 over the
lumberton area and mid 50s closer to the sc coast.

Temps will not rise much from overnight lows on tues. Temps
will not even make it to 60 most places and brisk northerly
winds will make it feel even cooler. Skies will clear with
increasing sunshine later in the day as dry and cool air feeds
into the area on the back end of exiting low pressure.

Skies will clear by tues night as high pressure builds in, but
gradient remains tight with enhanced n-ne flow. The northerly
flow will continue to drive CAA through the night with temps
dropping down into the 30s. A few spots could reach down toward
freezing.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 4 pm Monday... "cool and dry" may summarize this period,
as cold air advection encompasses most of this time. Winter to
dip its foot into the carolinas, with Wednesday morning wind
chills in the upper 20s, in brisk nne breezes at daybreak. The
ne low level marine flow should help spur a few afternoon fair
weather cumulus otherwise mainly clear this period. Highs and
lows both to run a bit below average compared to climate. As a
result, the primary hazard is frost or isolated freezes in the
early mornings.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 4 pm Monday... A pleasant 'return to spring' feel shaping
up for the extended period, as a high slips off the coast,
allowing return flow and building warm air advection to set the
stage for a weekend warm up, 5-8 degrees above average.

Gfs ECMWF both resolving cold front transit here Sunday,
handling differences in moisture, but small chance of rain looks
warranted.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 0z... .A cold front, and accompanying rain showers, is
currently making its way across the western boundary of our cwa.

Elevated rain chances through tomorrow morning as a shortwave
will continue to provide lift behind front. Slight chance of a stray
thunderstorm over next few hours. Cloud deck between 5 and 10 kft
will become MVFR at inland terminals around 6z and coastal terminals
around 9z. Chance ceilings could become ifr briefly, but confidence
too low for TAF inclusion. Ceilings should improve toVFR around 18z
tomorrow, with skies clearing shortly after. Southwest winds to become
quickly northerly behind frontal passage, with gusty north winds
tomorrow sustained around 15kts and gusting into the 20s.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions Tuesday, becomingVFR during
the day.VFR remains in place through the rest of the week.

Marine
As of 4 pm Monday... Gusty s-sw winds will continue ahead of an
approaching cold front into tonight. Low pressure will lift off
to the northeast dragging the cold front through the waters by
early tues morning. As the winds reach up to 10 to 20 kts out of
the SW this evening, seas will bump up to 3 to 5 ft, but the
main increase in winds and seas will come on the back end of the
low through late tues into wed. Seas should rise above sca
thresholds tues aftn, reaching up to 5 to 8 ft through tues
night as brisk northerly winds reach up to 20 to 30 kts with
gusts up above gale force. Will upgrade gale watch to gale
warning with this forecast package beginning late tues.

Wednesday the ocean is still dangerous, but a slow recovery
will begin later in the day as winds trend down. Thus it is
likely that a period of 'small craft advisory' will follow,
after the gale flags are lowered. Easing winds into late week
will set up very fine marine conditions into the weekend, with a
wave mix of weak SE swell and NE waves 1-2 feet, both wave
trains around 8 seconds. A front is expected to cross the coast
late Saturday or Sunday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 3 pm Tuesday to noon edt Wednesday for
amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Ilm
near term... Rgz
short term... Mjc
long term... 8
aviation... Vao
marine... Rgz colby


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi75 min 62°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi67 min SW 9.7 G 14 62°F 60°F1012.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi75 min 59°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi67 min SSW 16 G 21 64°F 61°F1012.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi45 min S 13 G 15 62°F 59°F1012.7 hPa
WLON7 28 mi45 min 67°F 57°F1012.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi35 min S 9.7 G 12 69°F 68°F1013.8 hPa64°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi67 min SSW 14 G 19 68°F 67°F1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi35 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F57°F80%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5S6S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmS4SW4SW9S7S8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----S3S4SW5SW4SW5SW6S6S6S3SE3
2 days agoW3CalmW4W5W5N7N8CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN5N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.14.53.52.310.2-0.10.41.42.53.44.14.343.22.21.10.300.41.32.43.44.3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:17 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.94.63.72.61.40.4-00.21233.74.143.42.41.40.60.10.20.91.92.93.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.