Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:04PM Monday September 25, 2017 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 9:45PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 441 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft, building to 11 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue night..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft, subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft, building to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 441 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Large hurricane maria will continue to move slowly to the north, with its center passing about 300 miles offshore of the cape fear coast through Wednesday. A cold front will move across the waters Thursday night with high pressure building from the northwest Friday and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 252145
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
545 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
Hazardous beach conditions will continue for much of the week.

Large hurricane maria will continue to move slowly to the
north, with its center passing about 300 miles offshore of the
cape fear coast through Wednesday. A cold front will move across
the area late Thursday with high pressure and cooler temperatures
building into the area beginning Friday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Monday... Conditions will change very little during
the near term period. The slow movement of hurricane maria will
continue to bring mostly to partly cloudy skies with breezy
conditions and little chance for rain. There will be more cloud
cover along coastal areas with closer proximity to the lumbering
storm. I adjusted tonight's overnight lows up a degree or two
based on a mixed boundary layer. The clouds have certainly held
today's highs in check and with similar conditions expected
Tuesday, I walked back highs considerably.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Hurricane maria will likely weaken into a
tropical storm through mid-week as she moves north along and
east of the nc coast. Maria will be distant enough to prevent
any significant impacts locally although gusty north winds are
likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, along with periods of
clouds. However, beginning the latter half of Wednesday the cwa
will be within the subsident region around maria, noted by
drying and subsidence in time-heights, creating abnormally warm
temperatures and decreasing cloudiness the second half of the
short term. A few isolated showers are possible along the cape
fear coast Tuesday night, but this will end by Wednesday with no
further precip forecast thanks to most of the moisture
remaining offshore. As winds begin to ease late Wednesday, there
will be very little indication locally that a tropical storm is
in the vicinity unless you are at the beaches to see the waves.

Increasing sunshine and subsidence will drive temps to near 90
Wednesday, just short of record highs for the date, with mins
both nights above 70, more than 10 degrees above normal for late
september.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Subsidence in the wake of maria and pre-
frontal warming will lead to one more day of above-average
temperatures before a cooling trend commences. A consensus of
guidance gives us highs of around 90 on Thursday. A cold front
will move offshore later on Thursday, bringing us near to well-
below normal temperatures by Friday, with cool weather
continuing into the weekend. The cold front will come through
dry, although isolated to widely scattered showers are possible
along the coast Friday night into Saturday as a strong upper
disturbance dips SE across the mid-atlantic states.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... MVFR conditions reside at the coastal terminals
while inland sites are mostlyVFR. This will continue to be the
pattern through the period as the broad circulation around maria
will advect deeper moisture in along the coast. Guidance has
the coastal sites going down into ifr tonight and I followed
this with several hours starting at 03 utc. Ceilings gradually
lift Tuesday with MVFR developing once again along the coast.

Extended outlook... Conditions will improve from mid week on as
marie moves further away.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Rough and tumble conditions will continue
through the period for the coastal waters. Little change is
expected with north to northeast winds of 20-25 knots.

Significant seas will remain elevated as well. Will continue the
high surf advisory and the small craft advisory. The strongest
winds of the period will occur early Tuesday across amz 250
possibly just above the 20-25 knot range for a couple of hours.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Gusty N NW winds will slowly ease through
the period as hurricane maria moves slowly well east of the nc
coast. Winds Tuesday night will be N at 15-25 kts, highest
amz250, before slowly easing to 10-15 kts Wed night from the nw.

While these winds are mostly offshore and thus create only a
limited wind wave amplitude, large swell from maria at 4-5 ft 12
sec combined with the wind wave will create large seas and an
sca remains in effect through 8pm Wednesday evening. Wave
heights Tuesday night will be 6- 9 ft, with some 10 fters
possible in the far NE waters, before falling slowly through
Wednesday to 3-5 ft, and then 2-4 ft at the end of the period.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Expect gradually improving conditions
over the waters as maria moves well northeast into the central
atlantic and a weak pressure gradient takes its place. Do not
expect any warnings or advisories during the long term. Highest
winds and seas will be on Thursday for our nc coastal waters,
with 10 to 15 kt winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. These conditions will
improve, with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range and winds of only
around 10 kts throughout by evening.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for ncz106-108-
110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Near term... Shk
short term... Jdw
long term... Rek
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi54 min 79°F6 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi99 min N 1.9 79°F 1011 hPa73°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi136 min N 12 G 19 79°F 78°F1010.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi55 min 78°F6 ft
WLON7 28 mi54 min 79°F 79°F1010.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi54 min NNW 13 G 18 78°F 81°F1009.5 hPa
SSBN7 29 mi144 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi44 min N 21 G 27 79°F 1009 hPa74°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi76 min N 16 G 19 78°F 80°F1010.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi76 min NE 21 G 29 79°F 80°F1009 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi34 minN 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast79°F71°F78%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmN3N4N3NE5N6N6N7N8N7N6N8N9N8N10N9
G18
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1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3NE3N3N4N5N7N7NE12
G21
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N7N6N6N5SE5E6--E5SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.93.12.11.30.80.81.42.43.44.24.74.94.63.932.11.411.322.93.64.1

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:13 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.82.71.710.60.71.32.53.54.14.44.64.53.72.71.81.20.91.11.92.93.64

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.