Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 5:58 AM EST (10:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 416 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 416 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Wave of low pressure will lift off to the northeast this morning followed by a cold front later today. High pressure will build in through Thursday. Another area of low pressure will move up the coast and in the vicinity Thursday through Saturday. A dry cold front will move through Saturday night followed by canadian high pressure early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 220917
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
417 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure will move off to the northeast as a cold
front approaches from the northwest this morning. Dry high
pressure will build in behind this cold front later today. An
elongated area of low pressure extending up from the eastern
gulf will track slowly up from the south Thursday through
Friday producing unsettled weather until it finally lifts off to
the northeast on Saturday. A dry cold front will move through
Saturday night followed by cold and dry canadian high pressure
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Wednesday... A wave of low pressure will move off
to the northeast this morning followed by a cold front which
will sweep across the area this afternoon. Lingering low level
moisture will produce some low clouds and fog this morning.

Expect some spots to get below a half mile vsby at times this
morning. Have issued an special weather statement for the
locally dense fog but may have to issue a dense fog advisory if
conditions get worse. This cold front will come through dry and
scour out this moisture as dry air advects in from the north
behind it into this aftn. Pcp water values up near 1.4 inches
will drop below a half inch by this evening with lower values
inland, in a deep n-nw flow of dry air as high pressure builds
in.

Temps up between 55 and 60 degrees most places overnight in a
very moist air mass will only rise about 10 degrees by this aftn
fighting against CAA and limited sunshine until skies clear
this afternoon. The 850 temps will drop from near 10 c down to
6 c by midnight tonight. The dewpoint temps will drop a good 20
degrees over the next 24 hours. Overall expect clearing, cooler
and drier and breezy weather this aftn into tonight. Winds will
spike up post FROPA this afternoon. Temps will be back near
normal tonight with lows dropping to near 40. As mid to upper
trough digs down into the gulf later today through tonight, the
winds will back to the w-sw and should see an increase in high
clouds, but do not think this will have much affect on low temps
tonight.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 330 am Wednesday... Which model is going to handle the
potential for rainfall this period. Models have been dry then
moist then back to dry again concerning the potential for a
coastal low from late Thu night thru Saturday morning. Of the
avbl models, the GFS remains the most wettest along with
rainfall occurring well inland from the coast. Will stay with a
dry bias and keep pcpn inland penetration east of the i-95
corridor. The disturbed wx in the gulf of mexico Wed will hook
up with a northern stream mid-level S W trof dropping southeast
to the gulf coast by Thu morning. The mid-level S W trof remains
positively tilted as it moves ene from there staying south of
the local area. At the sfc, low pressure will develop along a
stalled front just west of florida thu, and progged to move
along this boundary, ie. Across central florida Fri and ne
there-after. The stalled front may oscillate westward but will
keep it east of the local coastal waters. With a positive tilt
to the S W aloft, do not see much westward movement of the
coastal front or any onshore movement. With the fa on the
western side of the coastal front and during the passage of the
sfc low, pcpn will mainly be stratiform with any isolated
thunder staying over the offshore atlantic waters. A sharp
moisture gradient via identified by both cloudiness and pcpn,
will increase the potential for a "busted" fcst if this gradient
ends up further east ie. Potential drier conditions or
westward, ie. Potential wetter conditions. Temps this period
will run about a category below normal Thu and possibly up to 2+
categories lower depending on the extent of the clouds and
rain.

Long term Saturday through Monday
As of 230 pm Tuesday... A progressive yet overall dry extended
forecast prevails with seasonably cool temperatures, and dry
largely in part, because the atmosphere remains dry above 8000
feet. A moderately strong cold front Saturday night may bring a
few clouds but column moisture appears too scarce for rain. The
dynamics aloft will be running strong, so a brief shower over se
nc cannot be ruled out but no QPF expectations at this time.

Sunday should bring brisk north winds, as high pressure builds
from the west. The core of the high, and clear skies will team
up overhead daybreak on Monday, and may greet some inland areas
with sub-freezing air.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... Area of steadier light to moderate rain associated with
a coastal trough low, now moving off to the NE with only patchy -ra
or dz left behind over TAF sites. Mainly mid level deck around 10k
ft will lower along with vsbys as back edge of rain moves away and
shallow moisture lingers. Expect MVFR to tempo ifr ceilings and
vsbys in fog to follow from 08z to 15z in very light and
variable winds. Conditions will improve by early afternoon as a
cold front swings across the area scouring out any low level
moisture and bringing winds around to the n-nw. ExpectVFR
conditions thereafter with only some cirrus moving over the area
between 20k and 25k.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected through most of thurs.

Low confidence for MVFR to ifr conditions near the coast late
Thursday through Friday night in low clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Weak low pressure will lift north
leaving a NW flow across the waters through today. A decent
northerly surge will come later today into tonight as cold front
sweeps through and farther off shore and dry and cold air
advects over the waters. NW winds 10 to 15 kts will veer to the
n-ne through tonight and will increase up to 15 to 20 kts with
higher gusts. This northerly surge will produce an increase in
seas up to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon and into SCA thresholds
tonight as it combines with a longer period SE swell. Therefore
will issue a small craft advisory for tonight into thurs with
highest seas within a few hours on either side of daybreak
thurs.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... At the start of this period, a stalled
front will lie offshore east of the carolinas before tailing back to
the west across central florida and into the gulf of mexico.

Elongated center of high pressure along the ohio river valley, will
ridge across the area thu. A tightened sfc pg well be apparent
across the local waters due to the area sandwiched between the
high's center and the high's center. Will likely have SCA conditions
at the start of this period. This tightened sfc pg will remain
across the local waters Thu into fri. The tightened gradient
associated with the sfc low itself, will peak late Fri thru Friday
night as the low passes by east of the local waters. Combined winds
and seas may temporarily drop from SCA to scec conditions late thu,
but should bounce back to SCA levels Fri thru Fri night due to the
coastal low.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 230 pm Tuesday... Winds will begin to back to the NW and
increase on Saturday as deepening low pressure passes well
offshore. The low will pull well away to the NE Sunday, with
moderate n-nnw winds as high pressure builds from the west. An
exercise caution period is possible Sunday for N wind, and
elevated seas offshore. No 0-20 nm tstms this period but a few
showers possible late Sat early Sun as a cold front moves
through.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi58 min 62°F4 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi73 min W 1 61°F 1013 hPa60°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi29 min 64°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi50 min W 5.8 G 12 63°F 64°F1012.9 hPa
WLON7 28 mi40 min 59°F 59°F1013.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi40 min W 6 G 8.9 61°F 63°F1013.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi38 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 72°F1012.7 hPa60°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi50 min N 1.9 G 5.8 60°F 61°F1013.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi50 min N 5.8 G 12 65°F 68°F1011.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last
24hr
NW8
G11
N6
N6
G9
N9
NE10
NE11
NE11
NE12
NE13
NE11
G14
NE9
NE9
NE9
NE8
N4
N7
N4
N3
N3
NE6
NE3
E9
NW3
W7
1 day
ago
NW4
NW6
NW6
G9
NW9
G12
N11
N9
G13
NW8
N4
G9
N7
E5
E5
N2
N3
N3
E5
SE5
SE8
SE7
W3
NW4
NW6
NW8
NW9
NW9
2 days
ago
SW23
G29
SW14
G19
SW11
G16
W12
G17
NW14
G21
NW18
G22
NW16
G21
NW12
G18
NW14
G20
NW14
G21
NW16
G21
NW10
G13
NW7
G10
NW5
NW3
NW6
G10
NW8
G11
NW6
NW9
NW3
G6
NW4
NW5
NW5
NW4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi73 minN 07.00 miFair58°F58°F100%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrN4NE3N3NE5NE7NE7NE6NE6NE6NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4
1 day agoN3N3N5N7N8
G14
N7N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3
2 days agoSW18
G27
SW11
G16
W7W11
G16
N9
G21
NW12
G19
NW11
G20
NW8
G15
NW11
G16
NW6
G16
NW9
G16
NW3CalmCalmCalmN6N3N4N6N4CalmN3N4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:22 AM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM EST     4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:04 PM EST     0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:49 PM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.71.810.50.61.32.43.54.34.74.84.53.72.71.810.70.91.72.73.544.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:06 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:50 AM EST     4.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:56 PM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:04 PM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.30.70.40.61.32.53.64.34.54.54.23.42.31.40.80.60.91.82.83.53.83.93.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.