Sunday, April23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday April 23, 2017 3:46 PM EDT (19:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 3:51PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 337 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated tstms. Showers.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers with isolated tstms.
Mon night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 337 Pm Edt Sun Apr 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Front just south of cape fear will lift north later today and tonight. A complex storm system will develop along the front and move offshore early Tuesday. High pressure will return Wednesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231916
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
316 pm edt Sun apr 23 2017

Synopsis
A complex and slow moving storm system will bring heavy rain
and flooding through Monday night. There is a small risk for
severe weather as well. This system will lift away from the area
Tuesday with a return to dry weather and above normal
temperatures mid and late week.

Near term /through Monday/
As of 3 pm Sunday... Active period set to begin with anticipation of
widespread showers and thunderstorms along with potential for severe
weather and flooding. Front stalled south of CAPE fear will
gradually lift north-northwest this afternoon and evening.

Convection offshore is likely to shift onshore as the area of low
level convergence shifts west. Forecast soundings and cross sections
depict the strongest convergence setting up over inland sc this
evening and overnight with a second enhanced area along the SE nc
coast. Warm sector spreads over at least a portion of the forecast
area as the boundary moves inland later this evening, setting the
stage for severe weather. Risk is low, although SPC has bumped up a
portion of the area from marginal to slight risk. Strong low level
jet develops tonight, peaking around 40 kt, as the front heads
inland. Additionally warm advection will bring about a slight
increase in low level instability. Instability isn't quite surface
based but the surface stable layer appears shallow enough that it
may not provide a buffer. The combination of increasing low level
instability and 0-1km helicity approaching 300 m2/s2 suggest some
storms will be rotating, posing at least some tornado risk (hence
spc increasing tornado prob to 5%).

Storms will be moving quickly, storm motion will be around 25kt, but
their high precipitation efficiency nature means any training storms
will pose a flood threat. In addition to a deep warm cloud layer
there will be an abundance of moisture in the region. Deep southerly
flow has some success tapping into the plume of moisture spreading
north from near the bahamas, which helps push precipitable water
values over 1.5 inches tonight. This is within shouting distance of
all time highs for late april. Cloud cover and abundant moisture
will keep lows overnight 10 to 15 degrees above climo in most areas.

Extended periods of heavy rain will continue on Mon with flooding
taking over for severe weather as the main threat. Helicity
decreases somewhat as flow become a little more unidirectional, but
there will be a slight increase in surface based instability. Cannot
rule out damaging wind from the strongest storms and SPC has
maintained a marginal risk for the area. The bigger concern is
potential for very heavy rain for much of Mon and the high
likelihood of flooding. Front will be stalled in the area as surface
low tracks across sc. Deep southerly flow pushes precipitable water
values over 1.7 inches tomorrow afternoon, pretty much all time
highs for late april. Warm cloud layer remains deep and saturated,
around 12k ft, which will again keep precipitation efficiency quite
high. Further aiding storm development Mon will be strong divergence
aloft swinging over the area in the afternoon, ahead of the 5h
low/trough. Given the favorable conditions/set up it appears
rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts are on
offer. Cloud cover and rain will keep highs Mon a little below
climo.As of 3 pm Sunday... Active period set to begin with
anticipation of widespread showers and thunderstorms along with
potential for severe weather and flooding. Front stalled south
of CAPE fear will gradually lift north-northwest this afternoon
and evening. Convection offshore is likely to shift onshore as
the area of low level convergence shifts west. Forecast
soundings and cross sections depict the strongest convergence
setting up over inland sc this evening and overnight with a
second enhanced area along the SE nc coast. Warm sector spreads
over at least a portion of the forecast area as the boundary
moves inland later this evening, setting the stage for severe
weather. Risk is low, although SPC has bumped up a portion of
the area from marginal to slight risk. Strong low level jet
develops tonight, peaking around 40 kt, as the front heads
inland. Additionally warm advection will bring about a slight
increase in low level instability. Instability isn't quite
surface based but the surface stable layer appears shallow
enough that it may not provide a buffer. The combination of
increasing low level instability and 0-1km helicity approaching
300 m2/s2 suggest some storms will be rotating, posing at least
some tornado risk (hence SPC increasing tornado prob to 5%)
storms will be moving quickly, storm motion will be around 25kt, but
their high precipitation efficiency nature means any training storms
will pose a flood threat. In addition to a deep warm cloud layer
there will be an abundance of moisture in the region. Deep southerly
flow has some success tapping into the plume of moisture spreading
north from near the bahamas, which helps push precipitable water
values over 1.5 inches tonight. This is within shouting distance of
all time highs for late april. Cloud cover and abundant moisture
will keep lows overnight 10 to 15 degrees above climo in most areas.

Extended periods of heavy rain will continue on Mon with flooding
taking over for severe weather as the main threat. Helicity
decreases somewhat as flow become a little more unidirectional, but
there will be a slight increase in surface based instability. Cannot
rule out damaging wind from the strongest storms and SPC has
maintained a marginal risk for the area. The bigger concern is
potential for very heavy rain for much of Mon and the high
likelihood of flooding. Front will be stalled in the area as surface
low tracks across sc. Deep southerly flow pushes precipitable water
values over 1.7 inches tomorrow afternoon, pretty much all time
highs for late april. Warm cloud layer remains deep and saturated,
around 12k ft, which will again keep precipitation efficiency quite
high. Further aiding storm development Mon will be strong divergence
aloft swinging over the area in the afternoon, ahead of the 5h
low/trough. Given the favorable conditions/set up it appears
rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches with locally higher amounts are on
offer. Cloud cover and rain will keep highs Mon a little below
climo.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/
As of 300 pm Sunday... Early Monday night there should still be some
impressive rainfall rates being observed across the area, mainly nc
counties. Some dryer mid level air should be impinging into sc
zones. The 06-12z Tuesday time frame is a bit more problematic.

Granted this is the the tail end of the event but with the
impressive antecedent rainfall observed this will still be a window
of great hydrologic vulnerability especially if mesoscale/convergent
streamers are still coming ashore. The GFS is very agressive in
bringing in the dry slot and would actually imply that rainfall is
done area-wide (and probably is over much of sc). Other guidance not
so agressive and wpc forecast still showing a 12hr bullseye into the
cape fear. Will preserve this slower sense of timing but with lower
amounts in deference to the gfs, which looks very good from a
conceptual model point of view. Needless to say the interaction with
the main synoptic system and the disturbance coming out of bahamas
will be hard to resolve for nwp, the latter poorly sampled by upper
air observations. A minor severe weather risk persists into Monday
night with mid level temperatures so cold, but the threat remains
marginalized by weak wind fields and instability through the lower
half of the troposphere. By Tuesday morning the occluded upper low
will be rotating into the region, captured by the upper low,
filling, and then turning northeastward as it weakens. The channel
of impressive moisture flux will be well to our north and only
lighter wrap-around showers will remain.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
As of 300 pm Sunday... The mid level pattern will shift
initially into broad troughing across the central u.S. To a more
amplified version of this pattern by the end of the period.

With very strong ridging expected to develop across the
southeast by the end of the period, expect dry and very warm
conditions to develop. At teh surface an elongated cold front
associated with the initial broad trough makes a run to the east
but quickly loses steam and never makes it into the area and in
fact remains well to the northwest. Beyond this its all bermuda
high pressure. Temperatures, above normal for the start of the
period quickly rise to close to ten degrees above average and
the possibility of some highs into the 90s inland.

Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/
As of 18z... High confidence in both ifr and MVFR conditions
through the period, with ifr favored overnight and within any
stronger convection this afternoon. Front stalled just south of
the area will lift north late today and tonight increasing
showers across the area. Strong low level jet will prevent any
significant fog development but abundant low level moisture is
likely to lead to widespread ifr ceilings tonight. Heavier and
more widespread showers are expected to move across inland sc
around midnight then lift north-northeast through nc early mon.

Extended outlook... Periods of MVFR and ifr through early Tue in
heavy rain and thunderstorms and low stratus. Ifr or lower
conditions possible in fog and stratus Tue night and early wed.

Marine
Near term /through Monday/...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Small craft advisory remains in effect for all
zones. Northeast flow across much of the waters this afternoon will
become east-southeast tonight as front lifts north-northwest.

Increasing low level jet and tightening gradient, as low develops on
the front over ga/sc, will lead to increasing winds late tonight and
mon. Winds will back to more easterly late in the period as surface
low emerging from the bahamas approaches from the southeast.

Although onshore flow may remain just under 25 kt the onshore
component combined with a 3 to 4 ft swell will build seas over 6 ft
late tonight and mon.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Advisory in effect Monday night if not
longer as not only surface and upper low move overhead but a
swell hits the areas from a system that had lifted out of the
bahamas. This system phases in quickly with the western low by
Monday evening. Pinning down wind speed and direction will be
tricky during the Tuesday predawn hours depending on exactly
where the system heads as its movement will be erratic for a
time before it starts to accelerate northeastward Tuesday as
Tuesday progresses. Seas will be slower to abate especially in
light of the swell/wind wave interaction. The advisory will
likely be lowered late Tuesday or Tuesday night, earlier south
than north possibly.

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Departing low pressure to the northeast
and troughing in the central u.S. Will leave a weak pressure
gradient in place Wednesday and essentially the remainder of the
period. For Wednesday a weak southwest flow will be in place
with ten knots or less. For Thursday and Friday expect similar
conditions with the southwest flow a bit better defined into
basically a summertime pattern. Significant seas will trend in a
similar summertime pattern direction with residual 3-5 feet
early dropping to 1-3 feet Thursday and Friday.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... Flash flood watch from midnight edt tonight through Tuesday
morning for scz017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Flash flood watch from midnight edt tonight through Tuesday
morning for ncz087-096-099-105>110.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to midnight edt
Monday night for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Tuesday for amz250-252.

Near term... Iii
short term... mbb
long term... Shk
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi29 min 70°F5 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi61 min E 14 66°F 1014 hPa64°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi38 min E 14 G 23 66°F 68°F1013.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi47 min 68°F5 ft
WLON7 28 mi46 min 65°F 71°F1013 hPa (-1.4)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi46 min NE 19 G 22 66°F 71°F1012.2 hPa (-1.4)
SSBN7 29 mi76 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi36 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 74°F1011.6 hPa69°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi38 min E 14 G 18 68°F 69°F1012 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi38 min E 18 G 25 68°F 71°F1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi46 minNE 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast68°F63°F85%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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SW9SW6SW4SW5SW5SW7SW6SW5SW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE9NE9N6NE7NE7E8
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1 day agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Sun -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3123.144.54.64.13.22.21.10.3-00.41.42.73.84.64.94.63.92.81.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:04 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.71.52.73.84.44.64.64.13.121.10.40.30.92.13.44.34.854.73.82.71.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.