Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:12 PM EDT (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1034 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1034 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will maintain moderate winds through the weekend. A cold front will drop down into the waters from the north Monday into Tuesday, followed by high pressure for the mid and later portions of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231724
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
124 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Hot and humid weather with isolated thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend and into Monday. Heat advisories are
possible Sunday and Monday. A cold front will cross the area
late Monday and Tuesday bringing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms and a relief from the heat through mid week.

Temperatures will rebound above normal again by next Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1100 am Saturday... High resolution guidance continues to
show convection developing ahead of an inland trough and then
propagating to the coast. A mid-level shortwave will skirt the
area as it lifts to the NE this afternoon which will increase
the lift. Expect the coverage of convection to be isolated to
scattered today, developing as early as 19z.

Deep low over the great lakes early this morning will lift off
to the northeast through today, leaving a flatter more westerly
flow aloft by late Sat with a moderate and gusty SW flow at the
sfc through the day. Lingering moisture from convection near the
i-95 corridor overnight should lead to better CU development
there. Overall moisture will be on the rise as impulses ride
through the mid level flow aloft. Not expecting widespread
activity, but any storms that do develop could gain strength as
they move toward the coast in w-sw steering flow aloft. Pcp
water values increase to near 1.9 inches.

Temps will once again soar into the 90s, reaching between 90 and 95
most places. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to near 80 along
the coast. Heat index values should hold just shy of heat advisory
criteria, but still another uncomfortable day for many.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 300 am Saturday... Bermuda high and flattening mid-level
ridge will hold on Sun and mon. Cold front is dragged into the
area later Mon as 5h trough exits the northeast coast. On sun,
ahead of the front, flat 5h ridge will promote subsidence and
downslope flow. Highs will be above climo with an abundance of
moisture and heat index values are likely to reach heat advisory
criteria for at least some of the area. Precipitable water is
forecast to exceed 2 inches both Sun and mon. Convection seems a
little less likely on sun, although chances start rising in the
evening and overnight as a shortwave moves in from the west and
helps push the piedmont trough to the coast. Lows Sun night
will be well above climo.

For Mon guidance has started trending toward a slower solution with
the front, which now appears to stall in the region Mon before
working its way south Mon night. Given the time of year this is not
all that shocking and would not be shocked if the front ends up even
slower, lingering in the area as it slowly dissipates beyond the end
of the period. There will be little impulses moving through the
deeper northwest flow aloft Mon afternoon and evening. Shortwaves
coupled with the front, deep moisture and the remains of the
piedmont trough in the area all suggest widespread convection will
develop late Mon and continue into Mon night. Both GFS and ecmwf
hinting at possible MCS Mon night. Temperatures above climo continue
mon with lows well above climo Mon night.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 am Saturday... A cold front which will drop slowly
southward across the area Monday night into Tuesday, and may
stall briefly before pushing further south and washing out by
Wednesday. This will bring a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms at the start of the period, with heavy rain
possible. Although this front will dissipate into Wednesday,
cool surface high pressure and broad troughing aloft will keep
temps much cooler through late week before ridging develops
again from the west with a possible return to significant heat
by the end of the week. With the high pressure in place and
cooler temperatures, convective potential will be decreased wed-
fri, with just isolated tstms possible during the aftns. Temps
tue-thu will be seasonable for both highs and lows before
warming again to above normal at the end of the period.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 18z...VFR expected this TAF valid period except in the
vicinity of convection. Expect developing shra tsra to move east
along the sea breeze which is pinned near the coast. ATTM best
confidence of convection will be coastal terminals with
convection moving off the coast and dissipating mid to late

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR. Mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day with short duration restrictions possible.

A cold front will bring a higher probability for showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 1100 am Saturday... Low pressure over the great lakes will
lift northeast and maintain a tighter gradient flow. Overall
expect SW winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Winds should
reach up to 15 to 20 kt later today into this evening enhanced
by the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will commonly be 3 to 4 ft,
but up to 5 ft across the outer waters, but not enough to
warrant any precautionary headlines.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 am Saturday... Southwest flow continues for much of
the period with the typical diurnal increase in speeds Sun from
10 to 15 kt in the morning to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon and
evening. Wind speeds follow a similar trend on mon, although the
increase in speeds is expected to be less as the piedmont
trough moves to the coast and a front drops in from the north,
both weakening the gradient. Speeds Mon are likely to be capped
at 15 kt with winds becoming light and variable Mon night before
northeast flow develops late in the period. Seas will be around
3 ft for the majority of the period. The only exception will be
late Sun and Sun night when increased southwest flow builds
seas to 3 to 4 ft.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 am Saturday... A cold front will causing winds to turn
to NE at 10-15 kts Tuesday. The front will sag southward and
then dissipate into Wednesday as high pressure elongates
offshore. This drives winds to a more easterly direction on
Wednesday, while maintaining those 10-15 kt speeds. Wave heights
will be generally 3-4 ft through the middle of next week.

However, a variety of wave groups will exist due to the
fluctuating winds, so a confused spectrum is likely at times the
first half of the period before an easterly 5-sec wind wave
becomes dominant.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for scz017-023-024-

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for ncz087-096-099-

Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-

Marine... None.


near term... Rjd rgz
short term... Iii
long term... Jdw
aviation... Rjd mrr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi43 min 83°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 23 mi88 min WSW 7 91°F 1013 hPa78°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi43 min 80°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi65 min S 14 G 18 81°F 81°F1012.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi65 min SW 14 G 19 82°F 82°F1012.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi33 min SSW 14 G 18 83°F 83°F1013.6 hPa79°F
SSBN7 29 mi133 min 2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi65 min SW 14 G 21 83°F 82°F1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi33 minSSW 1010.00 miFair88°F79°F76%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW9
2 days agoSW7SW8SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:36 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:49 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:29 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
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Sat -- 03:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:33 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:34 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:15 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:11 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.