Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:24PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 9:46 PM EDT (01:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 824 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Overnight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain early this evening, then a chance of rain late.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 824 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move north across cape fear late this evening. A cold front will sweep through from the west Thursday evening. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Friday and Saturday, moving overhead on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210102
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
902 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure just off the nc coast will slowly move
northward and onshore tonight between CAPE fear and lookout
early Thursday, spreading light to moderate rain mainly across
southeastern north carolina. Dry weather will return Thursday
and continue through the weekend as high pressure builds in from
the northwest. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds
and rain into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday, followed
by high pressure for Wednesday.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 830 pm Wednesday... Models move the 1012 to 1015mb low
onshore between CAPE fear and lookout around or just after
midnight tonight. Decent lift ahead of the low will support
light to moderate rain east of the low's track this evening and
overnight. West of the low will experience patchy light rain or
drizzle. Additional rainfall totals overnight could see one
quarter to one half inch across the ilm nc coastal counties and
a quarter inch or less for the inland ilm nc counties. For the
remainder of the ilm CWA a trace to one tenth of an inch. Pops
will drop off from SW to NE from late in the pre-dawn Thu hrs to
1 to 3 hrs after daybreak thu. Have adjusted temps dewpts due
to recent trends and latest hrrr runs.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... A sharpening coastal trough off the
south carolina coast should become a closed surface low over the
next few hours. Models are nearly unanimous that the low will
move northwestward toward CAPE fear late this evening. Shallow
isentropic lift west of the low has led to a rather solid canopy
of low clouds and spits of light rain across much of the pee
dee region this afternoon. This has not been well-captured by
the 12z models, but should largely dissipate by this evening as
easterly winds along the 290k theta surface (approximately 3000
ft agl) weaken, then reverse overnight.

A more significant batch of heavier rain continues to organize
near the coastal trough southeast of CAPE fear. This is
associated with much deeper moisture and even some shallow
convection along the west wall of the gulf stream. Models show
this rain moving northwestward ahead of the surface low this
evening, mainly impacting the wilmington area. The potential for
a half inch of rain or more exists north of CAPE fear this
evening, with most locations elsewhere picking up only a tenth
of an inch at best. Rain should end from south to north as zone
of ascent ahead of the surface low moves farther inland by late
this evening, but low clouds in the residual cold inland airmass
will wrap back down toward the coast overnight. Lows are
expected to fall into the lower 40s with some mid 40s in the
cape fear area.

A mix of clouds and some Sun is expected Thursday morning as a
shortwave moves across the area, but enough sunshine should make
it through for highs to surge into the 60s. Mid-level
temperatures will remain very cold throughout the day (-6c at
700 mb, -22c at 500 mb) so steep lapse rates will probably
result in some cumulus developing despite surface dewpoints
around 40f.

As a second energetic shortwave should across during the evening
with an associated surface cold front. Even steeper lapse rates
from the surface up through around 15kft should develop.

Surface-based CAPE could grow to 200-300 j kg as lower
tropospheric winds become westerly at 30-40 kt. The result could
be a broken line of gusty showers zipping across the area.

While the pattern Thursday night doesn't look quite as dynamic,
this brings to mind an interesting wind event that took place on
march 7, 2004 when a stratospheric intrusion behind a sharp
shortwave encountered a similarly deeply- mixed airmass and
strong lower tropospheric winds. The result was a large area of
damaging winds 45-65 mph across much of nc. Again, this pattern
doesn't look quite as dynamic but I wouldn't be surprised to see
some breezy winds develop.

Short term Friday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Axis of sharp mid-level shortwave will
be off the coast Friday morning. Very dry air through the depth
of the column will persist through most of the period, until
some upper- level moisture begins to work in from the west
Saturday night. A second shortwave will develop into a closed
low as it drops across the great lakes and across the mid-
atlantic states Friday- Friday night. The associated energy and
moisture are expected to remain to our north, with the cold
frontal passage occurring across the forecast area in the 00-06z
Saturday time frame. Cool high pressure will build into the
area behind the front, and settle over nc va Saturday night.

High temps Friday should climb into the mid 60s... Close to
climatological norms, but a few degrees cooler Saturday given
northwesterly surface winds. Lows Friday night generally upper
30s north to low 40s south. Slightly cooler Saturday night,
with fair radiational cooling conditions. Lows are expected to
drop into the mid 30s north to near 40 south.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Upper ridge axis and surface high pressure
will shift off the coast Sunday. West-southwest winds from the
surface through 250 mb will begin to usher moisture, and warmth,
ahead of another mid-level trough axis and surface cold front,
and models suggests FROPA in the early morning hours Tuesday.

Pops will begin to ramp up Monday into Tuesday, followed by deep
layer drying Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temps Sunday and
Monday will trend higher, reaching mid and perhaps even some
upper 70s by Monday. Cooling down a bit Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the 60s.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
As of 00z... Generally poor flying conditions are expected for
much of the night, especially nearer the coast as rain works in
off the coast with attendant CIGS in the 0.5 to 1.5 kft range.

Winds will become westerly from south to north overnight as the
coastal low moves north, bringing an end to the rain and
allowing for the return ofVFR conditions all areas in the 12
to 16z time frame. Klbt TAF has been issued as nil due to too
much variability in the ceilings this evening and overnight.

Extended outlook...VFR Friday through early next week.

Marine
As of 845 pm Wednesday... Sub 1015mb sfc low just offshore and
south of CAPE fear, will follow a nne track, moving onshore
between CAPE fear and lookout by or just after midnight tonight
and reaching the albemarle sound by or just after daybreak thu
as a 1010mb low. There will be variability in direction to the
winds this evening and overnight with the stronger wind speeds
along and east of the low's track. This evident in the trends of
the local buoy network. Significant seas have also responded due
to the stronger onshore winds east of the low. Expect seas to
remain elevated especially from CAPE fear northward even when
winds drop below SCA thresholds later overnight. Vsby in the 1
to 3nm range overnight from light to moderate rains mainly in
the vicinity and locations east of the low's track. Elsewhere
will see vsby in the 3 to 6 nm range overnight in patchy light
rain.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 300 pm Wednesday... Low pressure developing near the west
wall of the gulf stream should move northwest and toward cape
fear this evening. Strong north-northeasterly winds earlier
today gusted to gale force for several hours at the frying pan
shoals buoy and at the offshore wrightsville beach cormp buoy.

These winds have since diminished to 15-20 kt and the gale
warning will be replaced with a small craft advisory with the
afternoon update.

As the low moves inland this evening, wind should turn west to
northwesterly across all of the coastal waters, with speeds
generally 15 kt. Strong winds of the past 12-24 hours built an
impressive easterly swell which should keep wave heights
elevated significantly above what local winds would suggest
through Thursday. A cold front should move quickly offshore
Thursday evening, with another shot of moderate northwesterly
winds to follow.

Northwest flow is expected through Friday morning on the order
of 15-20 knots as high pressure builds in the wake of a cold
front. The gradient will relax through the afternoon and winds
will remain offshore, through becoming a bit more westerly.

Another cold front will push across the waters Friday evening,
with winds becoming northwest once again. Gusts over 20 knots
will be possible immediately behind the front, diminishing
early Saturday as high pressure builds over the carolinas.

Surface high pressure will drift across the waters Sunday,
bringing southerly return flow Sunday night and Monday. Wind
speeds will trend up Monday and Monday night, and become
southwest ahead of a cold front, which will cross the waters
early Tuesday. Wind gusts may reach 25 knots behind the front,
and lead to small craft advisory conditions Tuesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt tonight for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Crm dch
near term... Dch tra
short term... Crm
long term... Crm
aviation... Dch ran


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi46 min 57°F8 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi46 min 56°F9 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi38 min NNE 19 G 25 50°F 59°F1016.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi46 min N 9.9 G 12 52°F 56°F1017.3 hPa (-0.5)
WLON7 28 mi46 min 51°F 55°F1017.4 hPa (-0.6)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi36 min ENE 29 G 37 66°F 68°F1014.9 hPa56°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi38 min SE 18 G 25 62°F 58°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi66 minN 94.00 miHeavy Rain50°F50°F99%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6E4NE5E8SE7SE7S5S4S3CalmCalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
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Wed -- 01:38 AM EDT     -0.84 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:53 AM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.6-0.8-01.42.94.25.15.453.92.51-0.2-0.7-0.40.72.23.64.75.35.24.43

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:14 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:42 PM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-0.3-0.8-0.40.82.23.64.65.154.12.91.50.2-0.6-0.50.31.634.14.954.53.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.