Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bald Head Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 10, 2018 7:32 PM EST (00:32 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 719 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy drizzle this evening. A slight chance of rain.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 719 Pm Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move slowly away, maintaining the need for an advisory locally through Tuesday morning. High pressure will build from the west for the remainder of the week before a storm system affects the area Friday and next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bald Head Island, NC
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location: 33.83, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 110016
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
716 pm est Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
Cold, patchy light rain and drizzle will prevail overight as a
final area of low pressure moves across the eastern carolinas,
and out to sea Tuesday. A little snow could mix in late tonight
into early Tuesday as precipitation ends, but no accumulation
is expected. Temperatures will remain below normal Tuesday
through Thursday as high pressure moves across the carolinas.

Another low pressure system will bring more rain Friday and
Saturday, however much milder temperatures are expected.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 715 pm Monday... Patches of t .01 pcpn cannot be ruled out
overnight, and it still appears enough of a moisture and cold
air overlap will lend to light snow and flurries in a few spots,
but given that grounds will hold above freezing much of tonight,
and light nature of the pcpn, lasting accumulations of snow are
improbable in any one spot. No significant changes were made,
did add drizzle for the overnight period, as cold air advections
keep low level rh elevated until drying more in earnest Tuesday.

As of 330 pm Monday... Deformation frontogenesis band is under
performing from a QPF standpoint today, not that we were
expecting a lot of rain but most areas are only receiving
drizzle or very light rain with just a couple of hundredths (if
that) being measured. The mostly drizzle will continue to drift
south and east in time tonight and with drizzle and surface
observations to the north showing no ice nuclei in the clouds,
wintry precipitation is all but out of the question. It really
comes down to surface temperatures, and even though guidance is
showing lows at or below freezing at most sites, my feeling (and
experience) is that temperatures will move little until we
clear out which of course means there will be no precip.

Remaining. Tuesday looks to be sunny and cool. The temperature
forecast could be troublesome as surface wind trajectories will
be traversing snow cover to the northwest but guidance "should"
have this figured in. Overall expect upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 330 pm Monday... Quiet time of wx expected for this
period. Ridging aloft and at the sfc will dominate across the
fa. A mid-level S W trof will bypass the area to the NW and n
this period. Could see some cirrus making it across the
appalachians and portions of the fa wed. In general, low mean
rhs spell sunny Wed and mainly clear Tue and Wed nights. Cold
wed morning with 20s... To low 30s at the coast that will warm
to widespread 50s for Wed highs. Stayed closer to the cooler
nam european MOS guidance for Wed highs. Wed night will see lows
about 5 to 8 degrees milder than what occurs on Tue night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 330 pm Monday... Thursday will see the sfc high and source
of the cold air move off the mid-atlantic coast. At the same
time, upper S W and sfc low will result with intensifying low
pressure taking shape over the nw-n gulf coast states by fri
morning. Models indicate a rather large swath of deep moisture
to advect across the fa during Fri with the wfp occur during
fri. The wedge preceding this wfp will not be as strong due to
the cold air source no longer over land. With plenty of dynamics
avbl but questionable instability, needless to say will go ahead
and include possible thunder over land and adjacent waters for
fri aftn and night. The 1st cold front pushes thru Sat morning
otherwise known as the dry slot. The true cold air advection will
occur late Sat night thru Sun as winds veer to an offshore
or downslope trajectory. Highs Fri and Sat will be well into the
60s with some MOS guidance breaking portions of the fa into the
70s. The CAA Sun into Mon not all that impressive with Sun and
mon fcst temps at or category above normal.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 00z... Precipitation has been forming between lbt and ilm. The
hrrr takes this feature slowly southward overnight. Look for
deteriorating conditions at ilm and lbt in a couple of hours. The
myrtles are already ifr and probably will stay there through the
overnight hours. Tuesday, conditions improving toVFR by mid morning
with that beautiful ball of light coming out to grace our afternoon.

Extended outlook... MVFR into early Tuesday morning.VFR
developing on Tue and continuing through Thu before a return to
MVFR Fri potentially due to another coastal low.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm Monday... Northerly winds of 20-25 knots are in
place over the waters and will be for most of the evening and
overnight hours. There may even be a slight uptick in speeds
briefly as the gradient increases. Expect more of a
northwesterly flow Tuesday as speeds drop to 15-20 knots late in
the day. The latest wave guidance has small craft seas
persisting for a few more hours later Tuesday and if another run
or two shows this a bit of an adjustment on the expiration of
the advisory will be warranted. Otherwise expect the current 5-8
feet to persist most of the period until late.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 330 pm Monday... Improving winds and sea conditions
expected this period. The last of the low's will be accelerating
well offshore and away from the area waters at the start of this
period with offshore winds in it's wake. Sfc high pressure
centered along the gulf coast states Tue night will ridge across
the area waters Wed with the high's elongated center nearly
overhead Wed night. As a result, look for diminishing winds as
the center of the high moves closer with speeds dropping below
10 kt and possibly 5 kt or less during late Wed thru Wed night.

Seas will be in a subsiding trend especially with an offshore
wind trajectory and diminishing wind speeds aiding it's
decrease.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 345 pm Monday... High pressure will slide off the mid-
atlantic coast Thu with increasing onshore ne-e flow. Models
indicate a wfp early Fri with modest onshore flow quickly
developing. Significant seas initially will be docile but
quickly build especially after the wfp as the sfc pg tightens
resulting in strong se-s winds reaching SCA levels. Wavewatch3
builds seas to double digits by late fri, at less than 10 second
periods indicative of the choppiness. The cfp will follow
during Sat as the sfc low moves up the appalachian spine. Winds
will again veer and become offshore from the west to northwest
at SCA speeds. Seas will drop below double digits Sat with
continued 7 to 9 second periods. Isolated thunder will
be advertised possible Fri thru Fri night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est Tuesday for
amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm est Tuesday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Dch 8
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 9 mi33 min 58°F4 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi33 min 55°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi25 min NNE 16 G 21 42°F 56°F1017.9 hPa
WLON7 28 mi33 min 39°F 49°F1018.6 hPa (+2.2)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 28 mi33 min N 13 G 19 39°F 62°F1018.7 hPa (+2.0)
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 28 mi25 min N 12 G 18 40°F 55°F1018.5 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 29 mi33 min NNE 19 G 25 54°F 70°F1016.4 hPa (+0.8)51°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 33 mi25 min NNE 21 G 27 50°F 62°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC10 mi53 minNNW 67.00 miOvercast39°F37°F92%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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CalmNW14
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2 days ago------------------------N5N5N5N5N6NE4N6N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:58 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EST     4.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:39 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.20.50.20.51.52.63.74.44.94.84.33.32.21.20.50.411.92.93.6443.5

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:21 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:47 AM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:02 PM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.50.70.20.312.13.244.54.74.33.52.51.50.70.40.71.52.43.23.73.83.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.