Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:18PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:44AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1002 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt...becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Periods of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and scattered tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers and scattered tstms.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1002 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. SEveral waves of low pressure will move along a front stalled across the inland carolinas through much of the week. Small craft advisory conditions could develop Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230219
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1019 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Waves of low pressure will develop along stalled cold front
producing increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through
mid week. A cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system
over the ohio valley on Thursday will push through bringing the
final round of storms to the area. High pressure will build in
on Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend.

Near term /through Tuesday/
As of 1000 pm Monday... Widespread thunderstorm activity over the
past 6-8 hours has left a chaotic low-level wind and pressure
pattern across the eastern carolinas. A synoptic front is
stalled back in the nc and ga mountains, while here closer to
the coast a convective outflow boundary has sunk to a position
10-20 miles off the coast of CAPE fear, myrtle beach and
georgetown, sc. Synoptic south-southwesterly wind should
overwhelm this boundary over the next 3-4 hours, with the
current northerly winds observed along the coast and offshore
veering back to the south again late tonight.

Aloft, conditions are warm and very moist with deep southwesterly
flow advecting rich gulf moisture overhead. Precipitable water
values are approaching 2.00 inches, and the 00z charleston, sc
weather balloon revealed a potential warm-cloud layer nearly
12,000 feet deep. The depth of saturated above-freezing
atmosphere has been shown to be an excellent predictor of heavy
rain potential.

Our first big wave of convection dropped a widespread 0.5 to 1.0
inch of rain across all but the immediate coast, with some
embedded spots where radar and mrms multi-sensor estimates are
as large as 4.6 inches. A second wave of showers and t-storms
currently across eastern georgia should move up the coast
overnight bringing another round of good rain. With plenty of
elevated instability lingering overnight (500-1000 j/kg)
forecast pops remain 80-100 percent with an additional 0.3
inches of rain inland and up to 1+ inch along the coast
expected.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
As of 300 pm Monday... Front remains stalled in the area tue
night, moving a little closer to the coast by Wed morning.

Although moisture will be on the high side there will be a lack
of upward motion. In fact there may be a lull as the passage of
a surface wave Tue evening and its associated shortwave will
lead to a period of subsidence Tue night. Forecast soundings
depict this rather well showing a mid level subsidence inversion
developing and precipitable water values dropping close by as
much as 0.50 inch overnight. Mid level trough axis remains well
west of the area Wed which will keep the front lingering in the
region. Passage of the surface wave Tue night may briefly push
the front south of the area early Wed but it is quick to return
north as a warm front around midday wed.

Better rainfall chances develop later Wed and Wed night as potent
shortwave dropping into the 5h trough early Wed helps kick the mid
level pattern in motion. The 5h trough rotates east-northeast wed
into Wed night, driving a stronger cold front into the region wed
night. Increasing southwest flow ahead of the front, as well as
strengthening low level jet, increases deep moisture in the region.

Pwats rise to near 2 inches Wed afternoon and evening and mid level
lapse rates steepen. PVA ahead of advancing shortwave, strong
divergence aloft, and the abundance of moisture coupled with low
level dynamics should yield a healthy line of convection wed
afternoon and evening. Although severe parameters are not
particularly high there will be at least some potential for severe
weather given the strengthening low level jet and modest shear.

Large dry slot sweeps in late Wed night as the trough axis moves
east, ending any precip prior to daybreak thu. Cold front likely to
be moving into the region as the period ends so cooler and drier air
will not arrive until after the end of the period. High temperatures
will continue running below climo with lows above to well above
climo due to clouds and moisture.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 300 pm Monday... Deep frontal moisture to be offshore by the
start of the period. However the main trough axis and strongest
shortwave will be crossing the area and this should manage to
squeeze a few light and short-lived showers. Continued dry advection
and the lifting of the trough Thursday night should keep us dry
despite one last final and moderately strong vorticity center
streaking by. Zonal flow will keep the weekend dry and fairly
seasonable with only gradually increasing surface dewpoints.

Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 00z Tuesday... A cluster of heavy thunderstorms just west
of myrtle beach is merging into a line of showers and embedded
storms stretching across the wilmington area. This will create a
massive problem for aircraft operations in the ilm area for the
next several hours with prevailing ifr visibilities continuing until
this thunderstorm cluster pushes offshore. Elsewhere, mainly
light rain falling from mid-level clouds aloft should prevail
through the evening hours with temporary heavier convective
showers potentially developing at times.

Cloud ceilings should lower to the MVFR/ifr category late
tonight as surface temperatures cool. Scattered showers may
linger all night, with scattered thunderstorms redeveloping
Tuesday during the heat of the day.

Extended outlook... Reduced flight categories will be possible
in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The
strongest convective activity should occur Wednesday.

Marine
Near term /through Tuesday/...

as of 1000 pm Monday... Showers and thunderstorms did indeed move
out across the coastal waters this evening. The rush of cool
northerly winds along the front edge of these storms has acted
like a miniature cold front and has reached 10-20 miles from
shore. This boundary should stall over the next couple hours,
then should get overwhelmed by the synoptic southwesterly wind
overnight. Winds should increase to SW 10-15 knots by 2-3 am
with gusts to 20 knots possible along the south carolina coastal
waters late.

Another wave of showers and thunderstorms currently observed
across eastern georgia should move north along the coast
overnight, bring more rough conditions for mariners from
georgetown through myrtle beach and CAPE fear. Reduced
visibility in heavy rainfall and frequent lightning may
redevelop late tonight.

Seas currently 2-3 feet consist of a mix of 9-second swell and
4-5 second wind waves. Sea heights may drop half a foot or so in
the next couple of hours, but should begin to build back up late
tonight in the increasing southwesterly wind.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...

as of 300 pm Monday... Front remains west of the waters through
the period, maintaining southwest flow. Speeds start to increase
later Wed and Wed night as the front moves to the coast and
slowly strengthening low moving into the oh valley helps tighten
the gradient. Southwest flow on the high end of the 15 to 20 kt
range Tue night will increase to a solid 20 kt around midday
wed with 20 to 25 kt expected late Wed and Wed night, likely
requiring SCA headlines for all waters. Seas will build due to
prolonged and increasing southwest flow. Seas 4 to 5 ft at the
start of the period will build to 4 to 6 ft during wed,
eventually reaching 7 ft Wed night.

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...

as of 300 pm Monday... Small craft advisory will be in effect on
Thursday just ahead of a cold front that will pinch the
gradient. Within the agitated wind field of the pinched gradient
a strong upper disturbance will traverse the area possibly to
enhance wind gusts. In the wake of this boundary there will be
west winds to round out the period of gradually diminishing
speed. Wave heights will similarly abate somewhat slowly.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement from 7 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement from 7 am edt Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Tra
short term... Iii
long term... mbb
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 14 mi42 min 1014.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi52 min E 7.8 G 12 71°F 76°F1015 hPa
SSBN7 30 mi120 min 2 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi75 min ENE 5.1 72°F 1015 hPa71°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi65 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F66°F94%1015.6 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi64 minE 710.00 miLight Rain70°F68°F93%1015.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi67 minE 59.00 miLight Rain69°F68°F96%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3S4S3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW6W4SW4SE5S6SE5S12S3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S4SE5SE4SE7SE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4S6W6W4SE4S6SE8S7SE5S3S3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 01:08 AM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:35 PM EDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.51.51.30.90.60.2-0-0.10.10.40.81.21.31.41.20.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.40.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Keysfield
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:25 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 PM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.61.410.60.2-0-0.10.10.611.31.51.51.30.90.4-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.40.10.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.