Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:17PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:19 PM EDT (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:33PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 304 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt or less, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 304 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will remain in the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front will drop into the area Thursday, slow down and dissipate over the area late Friday. High pressure will return to the waters on Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221855
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
255 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will remain across the carolinas for the next
week. A cold front approaching from the north will create better
chances of showers or thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. The
front will dissipate Friday, with fewer showers expected into
Saturday. Low pressure developing this weekend across the gulf
of mexico will throw more moisture our way for Sunday and
Monday, with substantial rain chances returning to the area.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... The convection that developed along the sea-
breeze just before noon is now decreasing in coverage. Inland
isolated convection appears to continue as the hrrr 16 utc is not
showing an increase activity this evening. So will continue with
isolated showers and thunderstorm through the evening.

At the surface the area will continue to be on the eastern edge of
the bermuda high and the deeper moisture is seen returning with
precipitable water near 2 inches. Both the NAM and GFS are showing
diurnal convection with the GFS being a bit more zealous with
convection in the northwest quarter of the area. The NAM is showing
less precipitation mainly west of the sea-breeze and focused over
northeast south carolina. The 12 utc ECMWF is closer to the nam12
solution.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s
at the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle 80s inland
and the lower 80s at the coast.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday... The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold front drifts south
across the forecast area. The precipitable water will pool ahead and
along the boundary along with marginal to moderate surface based
instability. While the amount of cloud cover will ultimately impact
the amount of instability any increase in cloud cover would also
imply slightly cooler temperatures than what is currently forecast.

For now favor a blend of mav met temperatures, and pops decreasing
Thursday evening with the front drifting farther south and
dissipating.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... A baggy upper level trough across the
lower mississippi valley and gulf of mexico will become better
defined Saturday and Sunday. Upper ridges building across the
pacific coast of mexico and out over the western atlantic
between the bahamas and bermuda will help to spin this feature
up. A surge of caribbean moisture very similar to what we saw
last weekend will be drawn northward in the deep southerly flow
between this upper trough and the offshore ridge, and this could
lead to another good rainfall event Sunday into Monday. The
latest wpc QPF outlook for just Sunday and Monday is around 1.5
inches across our area, with forecast 7-day totals of 2-3 inches.

Latest models show there will probably be some sort of low
pressure development across the gulf of mexico late this week,
but fsu cyclone phase diagrams show only the canadian developing
a significant warm core aloft. The 12z ECMWF (not currently part
of the fsu website) shows the cyclone keeping a pronounced
gradient in 1000-500 mb thickness above the surface low,
implying subtropical characteristics at best. The GFS is the
farthest east with its low pressure development across florida
on Sunday, while other guidance is westward. While not ruling
out anything just yet, it's expected the low will remain too far
west for any direct impacts on the carolinas, but enhanced
southerly flow should help enhance our rainfall potential Sunday
and Monday when my highest rainfall chances (50-70 percent) are
currently forecast.

The warmest days should be Friday and Saturday when there will
be more sunshine and lower shower chances. Highs should reach
the mid to upper 80s both days inland, several degrees cooler
near the coast. Temperatures should top out in the lower 80s
Sunday, and lower to mid 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s through the period are evidence of the
tropical airmass we'll have in place.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 18z...VFR today. Have added vcsh to all tafs except klbt to
account for current radar trends. Isolated showers along the sea
breeze boundary sw-nw of kcre kmyr kilm expected to dissipate or
develop further inland by mid afternoon. Vcsh also expected at
kflo klbt through the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is
possible this afternoon, but confidence is low. Winds will be SW 5-
10 kt, except S around 15 kt along the coast. MVFR ifr with
br stratus again possible overnight. Confidence of occurrence is
high, but timing duration low.VFR SW winds 5-10 kt expected by 12-
13z.

Extended outlook... The potential for MVFR tempo ifr will increase
late Wed thur as a cold front drops across the area and again during
the weekend as tropical moisture returns.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... The marine waters will continue to be
under the influence of the high pressure we have seen the last
few days. Winds will be southwest overnight and will shift to
the south on Wednesday as the sea-breeze develops. Winds will be
around 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots during Wednesday.

Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet through the period.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain
southwesterly flow across the waters Wednesday evening. However,
the flow will veer to a westerly direction as a weak front
drifts south across the area. The front is expected to become
increasingly diffuse as it passes south of the waters allowing
weak onshore flow to prevail by Thursday afternoon. Seas will
be 3 ft or less through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also possible with the front in the vicinity.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Bermuda high pressure will remain well
off the southeast coast this weekend. By itself it would provide
a gentle southerly wind and typical summertime weather. However
models over the past few days have been showing the potential
for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to develop across the
gulf of mexico Friday or Saturday. The GFS is the farthest east
of any model with its latest run showing a low reaching florida
on Sunday, while the ECMWF and canadian are farther west. While
it's too early to completely rule out impacts, our latest
forecast has south winds increasing to around 15 kt Sunday, with
a lengthening fetch of stronger winds extending down into the
bahamas. This could build seas up toward 6 feet, assuming our
wind forecast is correct.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Drh
short term... Srp
long term... Tra
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 14 mi50 min 1024 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi72 min S 9.7 G 12 76°F 78°F1020.6 hPa
SSBN7 30 mi140 min 2 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi95 min SSE 9.9 80°F 1021 hPa70°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi65 minSSE 9 G 155.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze81°F69°F70%1020 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi24 minS 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F72°F74%1020.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi27 minS 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8SW5S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S3S6S6SE5S9
G15
1 day agoS6S5S5S6S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSW4S4CalmW3W4Calm
2 days agoS7S5S6S4S4CalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW5S5S9S4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:33 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.30.10.10.20.60.91.21.41.41.31.10.80.40.1-0-00.20.60.91.11.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Keysfield
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:23 PM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.30.10.10.30.71.11.41.61.61.51.20.80.40.1-000.30.711.31.51.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.