Friday, December15, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:10PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:23 PM EST (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:41AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 735 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 ft after midnight. Scattered showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 735 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will cross the waters this evening. High pressure will move over the waters through the weekend shifting east and further off shore through early next week. The next cold front will move across the waters late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 160056
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
756 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

A cold front will shift off the coast this evening and high
pressure will build in over the carolinas for the weekend. With
a southerly wind temperatures will rebound and move above
average by Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front pushes across
the region late Tuesday to drop temperatures back down again as
high pressure returns through mid to late week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 8 pm Friday... Cold front still wavering over the forecast
area but latest guidance still has this feature getting kicked
offshore overnight. Latest IR satellite loops show back edge of
mainly mid-deck cloud cover associated with the font gradually
dropping SE so total clearing by daybreak not out of the
question. In any case, no precip is expected and forecast
remains on track with another chilly night in store. Previous
discussion from this afternoon follows:
frontal wave moving up into the outer banks. This has dragged
the trailing front back to the north of the region and allowed
the mid level cloud deck to fill in. Forecast soundings continue
to show dry air outside of this layer so still not expecting
any rain. The front will push back through to the south this
evening leading to a fairly deep layer veer to NW flow. This
should lead to a rapid clearing trend from NW to se. Lows
tonight will bottom out in the low 30s NW to upper 30s far
southern zones. Highs tomorrow will have trouble exceeding 55 in
the new, cooler airmass behind the front.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Friday... A short-wave, in a deamplifying phase, will
eject across the red river valley of texas Saturday night,
gradually becoming absorbed in wsw flow on approach to the
appalachian virginias Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the carolinas Saturday night, will slip
offshore by Sunday evening. These features will team, to produce
a sensible weather trend of warm air advection Sunday,
potentially resulting in 16-19 degree f minimum temperature
differences Sunday daybreak versus daybreak Monday, along with a
slight chance of a light rain shower very late Sunday into
early Monday. Moisture associated with the weakening short-wave,
will nearly saturate the 925-700 l and bringing the upper-
level energy across the region.Ayer late Sunday night and a few
sprinkles or light rain showers generated by weak support aloft
cannot be ruled out entirely into early Monday.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... On Monday the 12 utc runs of the ecmwf
and GFS are showing a trough cutoff low south of the 4 corners
area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by
Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east. By
Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it has
this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal flow.

The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the oklahoma and arkansas
border and the model weakens and dissipates this features as if
has moves off the east coast. Therefore confidence in the
extended forecast is not high.

The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday
before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and
Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but
the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the
forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday
with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy
out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker.

With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region
expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 23z... High confidence ofVFR through the TAF period. Mid
to high levels clouds will continue to stream across the area
along a frontal boundary that has been draped across the region
the past 23 hours or so. Surface winds will become light north
around 3 kt with mid clouds decreasing. After sunrise winds will
be light nw-ne becoming SW by the end of the TAF valid period
with clods dissipating and giving way to clear skies as the
front finally sags to the se.

Extended outlook...VFR.VFR tempo MVFR shra Monday through Tuesday

Near term through Saturday ...

as of 8 pm Friday... Cold front still has yet to move offshore so
winds remain at 10 to 15 kts from the sw. Still expect the
front will get kicked east of the waters overnight, with winds
turning NW and finally N by daybreak. Seas still in the 2 to 4
ft range. Do not expect any headlines during this period.

Previous discussion from this afternoon follows:
w to SW prefrontal flow regime has relaxed near shore as the
front has retrograded. This boundary will push back through this
evening turning winds to the NW and adding some gustiness but
expect wind and seas to remain below any advisory or headline
thresholds. Such winds will last into Saturday morning but the
remainder of Saturday will see high pressure build in and much
lighter if not variable wind flow.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 3 pm Friday... A welcoming and pleasant marine environment
for this period, with high pressure nearly overhead of the
waters Saturday night, slipping offshore of the 0-20 nm zones by
Sunday evening. As a result, winds will become light and
variable Saturday night, then s-sw Sunday, 12 kt or less. Sunday
night as the high offshore slips farther se, winds will trend
to W early Monday up to 15 kt, as the pressure gradient tightens
a bit. Still, with offshore flow, seas will not be problematic.

Light to glass conditions Saturday night will see perhaps a
lazy 10 second E swell around a foot. Into Sunday night, sw-w
wind chop will pick up a little bit. Dry this period, except
perhaps a sprinkle late Sunday and early Monday, but no
visibility restrictions are expected.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm Friday..An unsettled period for the marine forecast
with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold
front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Will have to watch if small craft conditions develop after the
cold frontal passage but otherwise expect seas of 2 to 4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rek mbb
short term... Mjc
long term... Drh
aviation... Mac
marine... Mjc rek mbb drh

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 14 mi54 min 1021.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi76 min N 9.7 G 14 53°F 1017.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi99 min W 6 54°F 1018 hPa40°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi29 minN 07.00 miFair46°F33°F62%1019 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi28 minNNW 810.00 miFair51°F35°F54%1019.1 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi31 minNNW 510.00 miFair50°F34°F54%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3S5SW7SW7SW6SW6SW4SW4SW3CalmW4CalmN4Calm
1 day agoSW6SW6SW4SW5SW5SW7SW5SW4SW4SW4SW6SW6W3SW3W4SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3NW4N4W5SW5SW4CalmSW3CalmS4SW5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 12:28 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:10 PM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 04:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:45 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:00 PM EST     1.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:43 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:23 PM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.