Monday, March19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 19, 2018 6:22 AM EDT (10:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 8:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 349 Am Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
Today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain likely. Isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of rain and snow.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 349 Am Edt Mon Mar 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front south of the waters this morning will lift north as a warm front this afternoon and evening. Periods of rain are expected today and tonight. A series of weak lows will impact the area Tuesday through late Wednesday with gusty offshore winds developing mid-week in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will build in Wednesday through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191007
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
607 am edt Mon mar 19 2018

A warm front will approach from the south by tonight and likely
will lift across and north of the area by sunrise tue. Showers
with isolated thunderstorms will be possible during Tue as
temperatures sky rocket into the 70s. A series of developing
surface lows will move along the oscillating front and bring
continued wet conditions through early thu. Much colder air will
infiltrate the area by and if cold enough, could result in a
wintry mix prior to the precipitation coming to an end early
thu. Locations north of a line extending from burgaw across
lumberton and dillon to hartsville, will have the best seats to
observe the possible wintry mix. A much drier and colder air
mass will settle in late Thu thru Fri with a warm up possibly
taking place this upcoming weekend. A frost and or freeze will
be possible Thu and Fri mornings.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Monday... Surface high weakly building in from the
northeast this morning quickly moves farther off the nc coast today.

Resulting onshore low level flow and mid-level southwest flow lead
to increasing moisture. The lowest layers will take the longest to
moisten up and precip has been slow to move into the area. Light
rain is just about to move into georgetown and williamsburg counties
but it will take a while to spread farther north. Most areas are not
likely to see any rain until after sunrise. Forcing is limited with
rain during the day being mainly driven by weak isentropic lift as
the front stalled to the south slowly returns north. Flow aloft
remains progressive with very little in the way of shortwave energy
passing overhead at any point during the forecast period. Warm front
is lifted north of the area by low pressure moving into the tn
valley this evening and overnight. Secondary wave develops along the
front tonight, as it lifts across the area, which ends up shifting
the heavy rain north of the area. Cannot rule out thunder,
especially later today and overnight as the warm front draws near.

However soundings do not look supportive of widespread thunder.

Afternoon and evening convection will be elevated with minimal
connection to the surface layer. Passage of the warm front
significantly lowers the LFC but even then conditions are not such
that severe or even strong storms are a concern.

Cloud cover and east-northeast flow will keep highs a little below
climo with lower 60s expected. Warm front lifting across the area
this evening will result in temps holding steady then slowly
increasing from around midnight on. Lows will end up well above
climo with mid to upper 50s expected.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 430 am Monday... Somewhat of a busy week, weatherwise,
shaping up for this upcoming week. Models are finally becoming a
bit more unison with one another with their respective solutions.

Tue will start out with a warm front that pushed across the fa
the night before and now is progged to stall just north of the
fa on tue. The fa will be in the warm sector with model mos
guidance now giving widespread 70s for Tue highs. In addition,
models illustrate a tightening of the sfc pg that will
eventually affect the entire east coast of the u.S. By late
wed. In turn, the last sfc low is progged to finally get kick
started off to the canadian maritimes and deepen to sub 980 mb
by Thu morning. Prior to the kick-start of the low low, models
indicate that the cold front associated with this last low will
drop southward, crossing the fa early wed. Models are not in
unison with respect to those mid-level S W trofs that are
rotating around the closed mid-level low located from the ne
states to the mid-atlantic states. What's even more baffling is
the amount of moisture thru the atm column of this eventual
closed low. To sum it up, looking at spring like conditions for
tue that transitions to winter like conditions as cold air from
north of the great lakes is tapped by the closed upper low and
promptly delivers into the local area. Could see pcpn end as a
mix of wintry pcpn, all depending on the full extent of the caa
and the amount of moisture thru the atm column. MOS guidance for
thu lows have backed off and are now hoovering at or just above
freezing. Nevertheless, the agricultural interests across the
bi-state region of the carolinas are well heightened at the
moment for the possibility of frost freeze conditions Thu and or
again on Fri morning. The pcpn that may end as a wintry mix is
not expected to accumulate due to the mild soil temps and the
intensity of the snow is not expected to be overpowering.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Deep mid to upper trough will swing across
the carolinas on Wed as sfc low lifts north and deepens off of
the mid atlantic coast. CAA on the back end of the low combined
with potent shortwave energy and lingering moisture will bring
some rain or possibly even some snow showers Wed eve before all
pcp comes to an end. Model soundings show a fairly deep layer of
moisture below freezing heading into Wed eve. Too soon to tell
for certain, but have added a little sw- Wed night. CAA begins
in force leading into Wed with 850 temps dropping below 0c wed
aftn and dropping further through thurs morning, down to -5c.

Temps will drop into the 30s most places with some frost or
freeze potential in spots, both early thurs morning and early fri
morning. Continued cool through thurs and Fri as dry and cold
high pressure builds down into the carolinas. Temps both thurs
and Fri may not reach above 60. Low pressure system will brush
the carolinas Fri night into Sat as it moves toward the mid
atlantic coast. This will produce increase in clouds and greater
chc of rain across the area late Fri into early sat. Temps will
be back to seasonable by next weekend.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
As of 06z...VFR conditions continue this morning with a large
swath of high clouds moving across the area. Surface obs reveal
much lower clouds on the doorstep and during the next few hours
these should slowly spread north across the area. Light rain
will accompany the clouds with precipitation becoming more
showery in the afternoon as a slow moving warm front lifts into
the carolinas. Widespread MVFR is likely at times today but have
low confidence in any ifr of significance. Warm front lifts
north of the area this evening into the overnight period,
accompanied by another round of showers. Better chance for ifr
ceilings late tonight, but confidence is low.

Extended outlook... Periods of MVFR ifr CIGS Tuesday morning
through Wednesday.

Near term through Monday ...

as of 3 am Monday... High pressure moving farther off the nc coast
today will maintain easterly flow over the waters into the evening.

Weak gradient in place will persist through the day and speeds will
be generally 10 kt or less. Front stalled south of waters this
morning slowly moves north, crossing the waters this evening as a
warm front. Gradient becomes more defined following the passage of
the front, as low pressure starts to develop. Southerly flow
develops after midnight with speeds increasing to 15 to 20 kt as the
period ends. Seas 2 to 3 ft today will start to build overnight in
response to increasing southwest flow. Not unreasonable to expect 3
to 5 ft seas as the period ends.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Southerly flow will increase early in the
period as low pressure helps lift a warm front across the area.

Tightening gradient and modest low level jet will push speeds
to almost 20 kt with potential for gusts in excess of 25 kt late
mon night into tue. Cold front will move north to south across
the waters Tue afternoon and evening. Cold surge develops tue
night with potential for 20 to 25 kt sustained and gusts around
30 kt late in the period. Small craft advisory seems quite
likely as the period ends with first speeds and then seas
exceeding thresholds. Seas around 2 to 3 ft at the start of the
period will build a little Tue due to increasing southerly flow.

However, the big increase will be Tue night, once the northeast
surge ramps up.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Low pressure will deepen as it moves off
to the n-ne on wed. A strong off shore flow will develop behind
departing low as plenty of cold air flows down over the waters.

Gusty N to NW flow Wed into Wed night will reach up to 20 to 25
kts. The off shore component to the flow will keep greatest seas
off shore with seas subsiding from 5 to 7 ft early Wed down to
3 to 5 ft by Wed night. CAA through Wed night will keep winds up
through the night. Seas will diminish through thurs into Fri as
a lighter northerly flow will persist as high pressure extends
down into the waters. By Fri night into early sat, winds will
pickup out of the south as next system moves toward the mid
atlantic coast.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Iii
short term... Dch
long term... Iii rgz
aviation... Iii

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 14 mi53 min 1014.9 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi75 min E 14 G 18 54°F 55°F1011.3 hPa
SSBN7 30 mi101 min 1 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi98 min E 6 57°F 1011 hPa52°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi28 minN 07.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F88%1011.5 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi27 minESE 510.00 miOvercast55°F48°F80%1012 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi30 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy55°F48°F77%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmN4N10N12N9N10
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS6SW6SW7
2 days agoSW3SW4SW5W4W5

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Mon -- 04:54 AM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:41 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Mon -- 03:45 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:16 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:13 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.