Friday, October20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Conway, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:36PM Friday October 20, 2017 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 6:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 952 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Rest of today..N winds 10 kt, becoming E late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt or less, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Isolated showers.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 952 Am Edt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate into the weekend as a moderate easterly swell persists. Northeast and east winds will turn southerly early next week ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions possibly developing beginning late Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conway, SC
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location: 33.84, -79.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201726
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1237 pm edt Fri oct 20 2017

Dry and warm conditions are expected through the weekend,
as an upper ridge over the gulf states moves east, and off
the carolina coasts. An approaching storm system will bring
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late Monday through
next Tuesday, followed by much cooler air through mid week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1010 am Friday... Sunny skies will prevail this afternoon
as the morning soundings from mhx, chs, and gso and the goes-16
total precipitable water product all show precipitable water
values around 0.5". The morning soundings are supporting high
temperatures in the lower 80s and with the high pressure
centered just to the west and shifting slowly to the east
northeast, winds are expected to be very light. Expect patchy
fog to again form overnight with limited boundary layer

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 217 am Friday... A nice one shaping up if you enjoy warm
sunshine on a Saturday and Sunday in october. Above normal
temperatures this weekend are on tap, as a a dry upper ridge
moves east into the region, into air already quite dry. As a
result, plenty sunshine minutes are expected to rack-up both
days, with highs more indicative of september, and almost 10
degrees above normal for inland spots. The coolest portion of
this period is daybreak Saturday, as lows Sunday morning will
run 4-6 degrees milder, as the marine influence becomes more
influential. Convergence offshore, with increasing low-level
moisture, may bring a few low-topped showers late Sunday into
coastal NE sc, and this trend will continue into Monday, with
warm air advection ramping up.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... The upper level pattern continues to show
high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving to
the eastern half of the united states by Tuesday. This is slower
than the previous run. At the surface the frontal boundary is
slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary into the area
Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the boundary
pushing off the coast Wednesday morning.

Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated
showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the
frontal passage.

High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and
Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures
falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle
60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z... High confidence ofVFR at all sites through 21 00z, and
after 21 12-13z. Except for a few cirrus skies will be mostly clear
through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and variable this
afternoon except e-se at kcre kmyr 5-10 kts until 00z. Winds become
calm this evening with good setup for br with excellent radiational
cooling. Still fairly dry so think MVFR worse case. Except ifr could
occur at times at kcre due to more available moisture from this
afternoons onshore flow, and at klbt due to proximity to river.

Extended outlook... Showers and thunderstorms may result in flight
restrictions mon-tue.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 1010 am Friday... High pressure centered over the
mountains to the west will shift to the north of the water
overnight. North winds will be at 10 knots and slowly weakening
through the evening hours. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft with a
few 4 foots closer to frying pan shoals.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 217 am Friday... A nice marine weekend shaping up, as
surface high pressure migrates farther ene to sea, leaving a
light to moderate onshore ne-e wind this weekend. Winds will
become se-ese nearshore both afternoons as a sea breeze forms
from the warm inland temperatures. As a result, mariners may
expect a few gusts to approach 20 kt inshore between 2pm-5pm. No
tstms in the mix this weekend since it remains dry aloft, but
isolated showers will approach the NE sc coast late Sunday. Ese
waves will level off around 3 feet every 9 seconds, and a light
onshore chop, moderate at times.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure over the waters will
weaken and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the
winds with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet
as the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach
the waters late Tuesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hawkins
short term... Mjc
long term... Hawkins
aviation... Mrr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 14 mi68 min 1023.4 hPa (-1.1)
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 29 mi60 min N 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 74°F1023.8 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 35 mi83 min ESE 5.1 73°F 1024 hPa57°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC4 mi73 minN 07.00 miFair73°F50°F44%1024.4 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC12 mi72 minVar 310.00 miFair76°F48°F39%1024.5 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC17 mi75 minNE 510.00 miFair78°F50°F37%1024 hPa

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW3CalmCalm
1 day ago--CalmNE4NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4N5N5NE5NE5E5
2 days agoNE7

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 03:49 AM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Fri -- 02:39 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:11 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:35 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.