Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:01PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 12:03 AM PDT (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:37AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 272105
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
205 pm mst Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A drier airmass will spread over the region for the remainder of the
week with temperatures moderating closer to average. Though high
temperatures will finally drop below 110 degrees, readings will
still end up in a slightly above normal range through early next
week. Skies will remain mostly clear as the monsoon wind pattern has
yet to be established and storm activity will stay well south
across mexico.

Discussion
A trough axis was objectively analyzed through northern az this
afternoon and has depressed h5 heights by 3-4dm throughout the
entire SW CONUS per 12z sounding data. However, the same sounding
data showed thermal profiles through the h8-h7 layer have changed
very little in the past 24 hours with weak CAA lagging the trough
into central ca nv. Therefore, afternoon temperatures were trending
fairly similar to Monday (a few areas a bit "cooler"), though deeper
westerly flow has allowed mixing of drier air into the boundary
layer deflecting thunderstorm activity into western new mexico. This
trend in heights and flow aloft will continue into at least the
weekend putting the hold on any thoughts of monsoon activity in the
near future.

Progressive jet flow and low amplitude shortwaves moving through the
northern and center parts of the country will keep subtropical high
pressure ridging dampened into northern mexico for at least the next
several days. As such, increased westerly flow will allow for
substantially drier air to become entrenched over much of the
southwest into the weekend. While near surface dewpoints may not be
completely scoured away, forecast soundings depict deeper mixing
ratios hovering below 5 g kg and well short of necessary levels for
deep convection. The good news is h5 heights will remain around
591dm yielding afternoon highs only slightly above average (and at
or below the 110f threshold at lower elevations). The drier air will
also allow for more comfortable overnight lows as readings dip into
the 70s and low 80s across most of the lower deserts.

Temperatures will likely creep up a couple degrees Friday and
Saturday as a weak trough moves towards southern california
resulting in a brief bump in the downstream heights aloft. Though a
return of excessive heat is unlikely, many lower elevation locations
will be flirting with 110f again. Highs Sunday may fall back a
degree or two and likely stay around or a couple degrees above
normal through early next week with the passage of the
aforementioned weak trough.

The forecast becomes a bit more difficult starting early next week
as models are now pointing toward rebuilding and northward
propagation to the subtropical high pressure ridge. There's still
some uncertainty on the location this ridge becomes established
though it will probably be somewhere to our east (possibly over new
mexico). Between the weak trough to the west northwest and the high
to the east, our flow should turn more southerly as early as Sunday,
but more likely either on Monday or Tuesday. This may allow for some
moisture to creep into southeast arizona at some point, but models
are mainly holding off on showing any appreciable moisture. So far,
it does not look promising for any monsoon activity nearing the
lower deserts at least through the middle of next week, but
conceptually the pattern starts looking more favorable beyond the
middle of the week.

Aviation
Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
blustery west winds can be expected through this evening near 12kt
gusting to 22kt. The west winds will gradually decrease tonight
near 6-8kt before switching over to the east late tonight around
07-09z. Clear skies are also expected throughout the period.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
blustery to occasionally windy west winds are forecast at 12-18kt
with gusts of 22-28kt with the stronger gusts expected at kipl. The
winds will slowly decrease tonight to 6-8kt and remain from the west
at kipl, and the south at kblh. Otherwise, clear skies are forecast
throughout the period.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Thursday through Monday:
unusually dry conditions with a near complete lack of thunderstorms
(essentially no chance of wetting rain, but also little to no chance
of erratic outflow winds) will prevail over the districts into early
next week while temperatures remain in a slightly above normal
range. Conditions will resemble more early june with afternoon
humidity levels falling in a 5-10% range following poor (to locally
fair) overnight recovery. Wind directions will generally follow a
daytime upslope nighttime drainage regime with more upslope afternoon
gustiness than would be typical for late june.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Mo kuhlman
aviation... Sawtelle
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 99 mi95 min 65°F3 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi71 minNNW 1610.00 miFair94°F23°F8%1003.3 hPa

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10NW8N11N11W5NW6W6NW3SE7SE7S10SE9SE7E8SE6CalmW5W11NW13
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1 day agoN6NW8N3CalmSE5S9SE8SE10S7SE7CalmS743E84W16
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2 days agoNW12NW10N10NW9N4E6SE10S7S84Calm3SE7SE9SE7SE8SE9NW9NW7NW6N11N10NW11NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.