Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:00PM Thursday January 17, 2019 8:57 AM PST (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:48PMMoonset 4:02AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 171145 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service phoenix az
445 am mst Thu jan 17 2019

Update Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

The remnants of a pacific storm system will lead to a chance of
rain today over portions of southeast california. Rain chances
develop over south-central arizona tonight and taper off Friday
afternoon. Best chances will be over higher terrain. Anticipate
little, if any, rain. Dry conditions are then expected over the
weekend and through the middle of next week. Day to day
temperatures will not change a lot. There will be breezy to
locally windy conditions at times... Mainly over southeast
california and southwest arizona.

Today and Friday...

dense fog has redeveloped once again over the imperial valley.

Goes fog detection algorithms have been highlighting that area and
there are surface based obs that support it. A dense fog advisory
is in effect there until 16z. The GOES fog algorithm is also
suggesting fog elsewhere including portions of pinal county but
surface obs there have not observed it so far. High clouds
associated with the pacific system hitting california have begun
to stream in from the west and that will hinder remote fog
detection due to the intervening clouds obscuring the surface.

Looking at the bigger picture, there is something of a rex
pattern over north america and the northeast pacific with a narrow
high amplitude ridge centered over western noam and regions of
low pressure immediately upstream and downstream. The rex pattern
also has flow undercutting the ridge. Some of that flow is within
a southern branch trough centered off the baja peninsula. The
aforementioned pacific system is the main low pressure feature
immediately upstream of the ridge. It is centered off the pacific
northwest coast early this morning. The core of the jet with it
(still upstream yet) that is barreling into the central california
coast is 150-160kts. Models are in good agreement that the brunt of
the system will be deflected northward with only some of the energy
making it into the interior western conus. The orientation of the
atmospheric river is also not ideal given the southerly component.

So, rain shadowing will be significant. For our forecast area, there
will just be a brush-by from west to east today and Friday with only
modest precip potential for some areas (except our higher terrain
zones east of metro phoenix for Friday morning). In fact, nudged
pops downward a bit given latest data. For metro phoenix, most
likely timing of precip, if any, will be tonight with better chances
over northern areas and decreasing chances southward. As an aside,
gefs QPF plume for phx has only one member with measurable precip
and that isn't until Monday night. Pops are much higher for northern
arizona but amounts will be light.

Not much cool advection so temperatures don't really change much
leading to highs very close to normal. One other effect with this
system will be more noticeable surface winds (especially southeast
ca and southwest az) but nothing overly strong.

Saturday and Sunday... A ridge from the pacific tracks across the
west over the weekend for dry and mild conditions. By Sunday, most
lower deserts will reach the low 70s.

Monday through Wednesday... A fast moving pacific trough moves
through the interior west on Monday and Tuesday followed by a ridge
quickly building over the west coast. The brunt of the trough passes
north and is lacking moisture. The main impact will be windy
conditions Monday into Tuesday (most noticeably for southeast ca and
southwest az). There will be some modest cooling as well.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
no significant aviation impacts are expected in the greater phoenix
area through late afternoon to early evening as an approaching
weather system sends mid and high clouds into the area with most
bases AOA 12k feet. However, by mid evening low clouds should start
to thicken with bkn decks around 6k developing. After midnight
expect isolated showers with CIGS dropping to 4-5k feet including
kphx. Winds should be following typical diurnal patterns for the
most part, turning from the east towards the southwest west after
20z this afternoon then returning to the east by around midnight.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
the most significant aviation impact will be patchy dense fog this
morning; as of 5 am fog had started to dissipated and move east of
the imperial valley but there remains potential for lingering dense
fog at kipl knjk thru 15z or so with visibility below 2sm. By mid
morning expect mainly few-sct decks 4-6k feet with bkn mid and high
cloud decks. Expect clearing from the west later in the afternoon
and during the evening hours. Winds to favor the south to southwest
at kblh with speeds mostly 12kt or lower. Winds somewhat more
variable at kipl and generally 10kt or less.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Wednesday: dry conditions should be the rule during
the 5 day period, as high pressure aloft initially dominates the
weather pattern, followed by a dry system that drops southeast
through the 4 corners area Monday into Tuesday bringing increasing
wind and cooling to the area. High temperatures will stay near or
slightly above seasonal normals this weekend followed by a cooling
trend through midweek. Humidity will stay rather elevated with
desert minimum rh values 20 to 30 percent Saturday into early next
week. Some drier deserts will fall back into the mid to upper teens
by next Wednesday. Winds will be on the light side during the
weekend but then become breezy to windy mainly west of phoenix
Monday into Tuesday with directions favoring the north. Less wind is
on tap for Wednesday.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... Dense fog advisory until 8 am pst this morning for caz567.

Discussion... Aj aviation... CB fire weather... Cb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi66 minN 00.15 miFog53°F51°F93%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalm3SE4SE3CalmE3SW3W4N3CalmNW4N3CalmE3CalmSE3SW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmSE4SE5S3CalmNW4NW5NW4CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.