Saturday, August19, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Desert Center, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:28PM Friday August 18, 2017 10:39 PM PDT (05:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:46AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Desert Center, CA
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location: 33.86, -115.76     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 190351 aaa
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
850 pm mst Fri aug 18 2017

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Atmospheric moisture content begins to trend upward over the
weekend for the desert southwest. Accordingly, rain chances begin
over southeast and east-central arizona Saturday and expand across
the region to the deserts of california by early next week.

Temperatures will remain near normal through next week.

The synoptic scale pattern for the desert southwest remains
largely unchanged from recent days with dry southwesterly flow
aloft in place due to troughing centered west of the california
coast. Meanwhile a belt of subtropical high pressure remains
centered over the gulf coast. However, within the subtropical
latitudes of north america and the caribbean, are a variety of
cyclonic circulations associated with cutoff lows and mcs
remnants. The big picture synoptic pattern evolution remains the
same for the coming several days with the development of more
southerly steering flow over arizona and southeast california
between the california trough closed low and a consolidation of
subtropical anticylonic flow becoming centered further west. In
general, this will mean a return of richer moisture to the region
and in turn storm chances. However, there are differing model
solutions on just when, how much, and how far west the monsoon
moisture will track. Some of the deterministic models such as the
gfs and ECMWF have trended toward a later onset (and subsequent
departure) of significant moisture for our forecast area. Whereas
ensemble based guidance, such as the naefs and calibrated gefs,
are indicating an earlier onset and departure. The ensemble
guidance may be reflecting the potential impacts of one of those
aforementioned cyclonic circulations moving northward through
portions of arizona over the weekend. While the deterministic
models depict that circulation feature, they are more reluctant
with the moisture advection though the NAM is an exception. Some
of the hi-res models depict debris showers for late Saturday night
and Sunday but they wouldn't add up to much.

Overall, for the lower deserts, the nature of stronger storm
activity looks to be a scenario wherein outflows move in from
southeast arizona (and thus dust storm potential) plus adjacent
higher terrain from central east-central arizona but with only
isolated thunderstorm activity directly over our forecast area.

Thinking this would be the case during the workweek next week. As
indicated above, there are definite uncertainties associated with
uncertainties in moisture availability. If the flow aloft
maintains some westerly component (versus southerly or easterly)
then a relatively dry scenario will prevail. The converse would be
true for more southerly and or easterly component to the flow. As
for temperatures, expect they will remain generally near normal
with no major upswings.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl...

southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh...

high pressure and weak sfc pressure gradients to keep winds on the
light side, mainly AOB 10 kts through the TAF period, with slightly
stronger winds at kblh during the late afternoon evening hours on
Saturday. Winds to mainly following typical diurnal trends. Mid high
cloud layers, mainly in the few-sct coverage range to prevail
through the TAF period at all of the TAF sites.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday...

seasonably hot temperatures combined with moderate monsoon
moisture will dominate the region resulting in a slight to
moderate chance of afternoon and evening t-storms through
Wednesday evening over the deserts and high country, and through
Friday over just the high terrain of gila county. However, expect
the best storm chances over the higher elevations of gila county
with the more modest chances across the lower deserts of arizona.

A few of the stronger storms may produce only a slight chance of
wetting rain. Seasonably breezy southerly and southwesterly winds
near 10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph can be expected from SE ca to
sw az by late afternoon and early evening each day through
Wednesday. Min rh values in the 15-19 percent range over the lower
deserts on Mon will gradually peak at the 17-23 percent range by
thu. Expect overnight recoveries to be fair to good over southeast
ca and good to excellent elsewhere.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Aj
aviation... Percha
fire weather... Sawtelle

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46242 - Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA (043) 99 mi102 min 70°F3 ft

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palm Springs, Jacqueline Cochran Regional Airport, CA27 mi48 minNW 910.00 miFair92°F59°F33%1008 hPa

Wind History from TRM (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW12NW10N7N11NW10N10N10NW8N9NW8N74E56SE3SE86SE9SE12SE8SE5S3NW9NW9
1 day agoNW11NW10NW10NW8NW10NW6NW9NW8NW8NW9NW8W3N45SE6SE8SE13SE9
2 days agoNW8NW14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Diego, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.