Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 7:17AM||Sunset 5:35PM||Saturday January 19, 2019 9:23 PM EST (02:23 UTC)||Moonrise 4:04PM||Moonset 5:39AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus62 kilm 200217|
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
917 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
Low pressure will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms
tonight into early Sunday. Dry canadian high pressure will
build in behind cold front through early next week and will
provide some of the coldest temperatures so far this winter
Near term through Sunday
As of 930 pm Saturday... The warm front moved across the
wilmington airport around 745 pm and the fog dissipated almost
immediately. Webcams from carolina beach, wrightsville beach,
and surf city show fog has largely dissipated in these locations
in the past 30 to 45 minutes. The next "event" should be an
increase in southerly winds and in air temperatures as
subtropical air surges northward.
Radar composites show a large area of moderate to heavy rain
with an embedded line of convection entering western south
carolina. This is still expected to reach the pee dee area
shortly after midnight and the coast before daybreak. No
significant changes are needed to the forecast. Discussion from
630 pm follows...
a couple of significant changes are needed to the forecast this
evening. Dense sea fog is in place north of CAPE fear as seen
on surfchex.Com webcams at carolina beach and surf city. An sps
will be issued to address locally dense fog for the next few
hours. This fog has developed along and north of the warm front
which extends from east of CAPE fear to near southport and then
north- northwestward across elizabethtown. All models show
increasing south winds over the next few hours which should move
this boundary north, with improving visibility anticipated as
winds turn southerly and increase by 10 pm.
Dewpoints across much of the eastern half of south carolina and
georgia crashed into the 40s this afternoon. This appears to be
due to bone-dry air above the subsidence inversion across
florida and eastern georgia getting incorporated into the deep
daytime boundary layer, then advecting north. This slug of low-
level dry air will delay the onset of precip by several hours
across the pee dee region i-95 corridor, and i've pushed back
the onset of precip by several hours until after midnight. Once
the 850-700 mb conveyor of deep moisture arrives, showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms look certain to occur and i've
increased pops to 100 percent for most areas.
North of the warm front in the wilmington metro area i've
lowered forecast lows into the 54-56 range with little change
elsewhere. A strong warming trend is still indicated in temps
overnight as southerly winds increase ahead of the line of
showers and storms preceding the cold front. Wind gusts late
tonight could exceed 30 mph even outside of convection just due
to the strong low level jet overhead.
Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Strong cold air advection behind the
passing cold front Sunday night will gradually drop temperatures
throughout the night into Monday morning. Low temperatures are
expected to bottom in the mid 20s, which is about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year. Highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s Monday will be much below normal... Between 25 and 30
degrees below normal. Another cold night expected Monday night
with lows in the lower to mid 20s. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions will prevail.
Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Cold start to the week continues
Tuesday morning as a cold air mass and strong cold air advection
continues behind the passage of the cold front from earlier
Sunday. Southerly flow returns during the day Tuesday to bring
warmer air into the region and temperatures return to near
normal. Warming trend with above normal temperatures continues
into Wednesday ahead of the next approaching storm system. Early
projections indicate another round of moderate to heavy rain at
times Wednesday and Thursday with chances for thunderstorms,
mainly along the coast. After the cold frontal passage, expect a
return to dry conditions and near normal temperatures for late
Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... Easterly flow off of the ocean is creating a few
areas of ifr along the coast in nc. Additionally, moist air over|
the ocean is leading to a few areas of sea fog. Some sea fog
could extend to coastal terminals, mainly in nc, although cre
may see a brief period of fog as dew points hold steady near 60.
Dry air to the south, moving northward, should prevent sc
terminals from having flight restrictions ahead of the line of
As easterly winds become southerly over the next 2-3 hours, expect
this to end andVFR CIGS to develop. Low-level jet associated with a
passing low pressure system will bring a good chance of llws 03z-12z
at all terminals. Along with the low-level jet, a line of
precipitation will impact the inland terminals around 06z increasing
in intensity as it moves east, and impacting the coastal terminals
around 09z. Heavy showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible
although confidence is too low regrading the development of embedded
ts to include in the taf. MVFR CIGS will develop just ahead of the
line of showers and last through ~16z, followed by clearing from
west to east due to a cold front. Expect gusty northwesterly winds
to develop behind the line of showers and the following cold front.
Extended outlook... MVFR conditions possible lingering into Sunday
evening.VFR Monday and Tuesday. MVFR conditions possible with a
frontal passage on Wednesday.
Near term through Sunday ...
as of 930 pm Saturday... Webcams are showing the dense fog has
largely dissipated in the past 30-45 minutes at carolina beach,
wrightsville beach, and surf city. This is due to the warm front
moving northward as expected. I'll let the dense fog advisory
expire at 10 pm. Winds at the frying pan shoals buoy are now
gusting to 25 knots from the south. These stronger winds will
overspread the coastal waters by midnight. The remainder of the
forecast looks fine and no significant changes are needed.
Discussion from 630 pm follows...
webcams from carolina beach and surf city show dense sea fog
has developed. A dense fog advisory is now in effect until 10 pm
between CAPE fear and surf city. The fog is preceding a warm
front which should move northward and out of our area late this
evening. Strengthening southerly winds will then develop across
the entire forecast area, culminating in gusts over gale force
late tonight. A current check on buoy- reported sea heights
shows 2 feet across the area, but this should build
substantially overnight in response to the increasing wind
Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...
as of 300 pm Saturday... Strong offshore winds continue Sunday
night behind the cold frontal passage 25 to 30 kts with gusts as
high as 45 kts. Significant wave heights on the order of 6 to 8
feet with 6 to 8 second periods. Winds will gradually decrease
toward Monday morning and gale conditions decrease. Concerns for
small craft operating the offshore waters may continue through
the day Monday as wave heights continue to be elevated.
Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...
as of 300 pm Saturday... Seas become calmer 2 to 4 feet with
shifting winds 10 to 15 kts through the period with a series of
frontal passages . For mid week the next chances for hazardous
seas would be in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame with the
next approaching disturbance with chances for thunderstorms,
increasing winds and significant wave heights.
Ilm watches warnings advisories
Marine... Gale warning from midnight tonight to midnight est Sunday
night for amz250-252-254-256.
Dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for amz250.
near term... Tra
short term... Mck
long term... Mck
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2)||5 mi||75 min||S 12 G 16||58°F||54°F||1008.3 hPa|
|41108||31 mi||53 min||55°F||2 ft|
|WLON7||41 mi||53 min||56°F||47°F||1008.4 hPa|
|JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC||48 mi||53 min||S 8 G 8||56°F||1008.8 hPa|
|NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC||48 mi||98 min||S 5.1||59°F||1008 hPa||55°F|
|41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC||49 mi||75 min||S 9.7 G 14||59°F||58°F||1009.1 hPa|
|41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC||49 mi||53 min||58°F||2 ft|
Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC||9 mi||30 min||S 10||10.00 mi||Fair||61°F||55°F||84%||1007.2 hPa|
|Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC||22 mi||27 min||SSE 13||10.00 mi||Fair||60°F||55°F||84%||1007.4 hPa|
Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||W||Calm||W||W||W||W||Calm||W||NW||W||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||N||NE||N||NE||NE||NE||NE||NE||E||E||E||E||SE||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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