Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:27PM Sunday March 18, 2018 3:35 PM EDT (19:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:13AMMoonset 7:41PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 326 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 326 Pm Edt Sun Mar 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front south of the waters overnight, will lift north as a warm front Monday, with periods of rain expected Monday. A series of low pressure centers, will impact the area Tuesday through late Wednesday, with gusty offshore winds developing mid week in wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will build in Wednesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181706
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
105 pm edt Sun mar 18 2018

A cold front south of the area today will lift north as a warm
front late tonight and Monday, bringing occasional light rain.

A series of developing surface lows, will bring wet conditions
Monday night through Wednesday, with colder and drier weather
arriving Thursday. Frost and freeze conditions may occur early
Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm into next weekend, as low
pressure approaches from the west.

Near term through tonight
As of 1129 am Sunday... Thinning stratus presently transitioning
to strato-cumulus across the region, with full clearing and
dewpoints lowering through the 40s across the northern tier of
interior SE nc. This trend points to sunny to partly cloudy
skies across the area with a notable temperature gradient north
to south, 50 at lbt, and gge 70 this hour. This will require
some hourly temp crafting to blend with anticipated highs, and
max-ts will be adjusted as well. Lowering dewpoints today will
rise late tonight ahead of an approaching warm front. Not a
great deal of change is expected with wind-speeds overall.

As of 3 am Sunday... A developing surface low pressure area
over the southern plains will cause the surface front well to
our south to begin shifting northward with isentropic lift of
the 295k surface seen to begin late Sunday. The condensation
pressure deficit does not indicate saturation of the layer until
after 12 utc Monday.

So for precipiation expectations, a dry Sunday is expected with low
stratus on the north side of the front dissipating by mid-morning.

The increase of cloud cover will begin late Sunday with a slight
chance of showers after midnight mainly over northeast south

Maximum temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with the frontal
passage. Temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the northern
portions of southeast north carolina to the lower 70s in
williamsburg and georgetown counties. Lows Sunday night will range
from the lower 40s in the north to around 50 in the southern
sections of northeast south carolina.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 400 am Sunday... Basically looking at unsettled wx
conditions thruout much of this period. A whopping 1015mb high
affecting the area early Monday, will give way to an approaching
low pressure system from the west. At the same time, a warm
front will lift northward, finally crossing the fa late mon
night. The low will have hooked up with the warm front mon
night and both will cross the fa together. This will enhance the
precipitation and as a result, have increased the QPF across the
board specifically Mon thru Mon night. A somewhat of a dry
punch will push across the carolinas during Tue and if enough
insolation also becomes available, temperatures should easily
break into the 70s across most locations. Then it's back to
reality, with a cold front progged to drop south across the fa
tue evening. In it's wake, much colder air will slowly
infiltrate the fa with Wed lows in the upper 30s to mid
40s... This compared to the previous 2 nights with lows in the
50s and 60s. Models are in some disagreement with how much cold
air makes it to the fa as a weak to modest negatively tilted
mid-level S W trof drops southeastward. It's path with respect
to the ilm CWA will be crucial for the possibility of wintry
pcpn that may occur immediately after this period Wed into wed
night along with 32 degree temps.

.Long term wednethe tightened sfc pg from late Mon will
actually further tighten Tue into Tue night given the strength of
the sfc low. Combined with CAA after the cfp, winds should reach
scec and SCA thresholds. There is a gale possibility but that will
depend on any further strengthening of the sfc low and also its
placement and movement. Nevertheless, not a favorable 2 days to
spend on the open atlantic waters. Significant seas will see their
lull during Mon at 1 to 3 ft.Sday through Saturday ...

as of 344 pm Saturday... Low pressure pulling off the coast will
bring a lull Tuesday, before another low develops and brings
periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday, changing
over to snow or a rain snow mix Wednesday evening. Forecast low
temperatures and thermal profiles, depict a brief period of
frozen precipitation is possible across much of the area. Sharp mid-
level drying will end pcpn prior to daybreak Thursday. Significant
accumulations are not expected due to warmer ground, but a "frost'
advisory, or 'freeze warning' may be needed very early Thursday,
favored over interior SE nc, but could reach into parts of NE sc.

Did not include thunder this period because of stable cooler low
levels, but elevated instability will exist to some degree. QPF tue-
wed night averages to 3 10" to 5 10".

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
As of 17z... The area of strato-cumulus drifting south in the post-
frontal regime will continue to erode through 19-20z. A period of
vfr CIGS vsbys expected during the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Moisture advection will commence ahead of the next upper
low and old front returning north as a warm front overnight into
Monday morning. MVFR CIGS vsbys developing in areas of rain, mainly
after 06-08z and possibly ifr CIGS later in the morning.

Extended outlook... Periods of MVFR, and some ifr Monday through
Wednesday. Chances for convection increasing Monday through Tuesday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 1129 am Sunday... Bumpy seas will be ongoing today, in
part due to gusty N winds, and residual south wave energy every
7 seconds interacting with the moderate and opposing chop. Fpsn7
has dropped to 5 feet with gusts around 20 kt, so expect scec
to near scec conditions along the very outer waters. The
majority of 0-20 nm zones can expect 3-4 ft seas and NE gusts to
20 kt on occasion today, veering to E and easing a bit tonight.

Into early Monday, rain spreading from the s-sw may begin to
reduce visibility to below 4 nm toward daybreak.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 400 am Sunday... Monday looks like it could partially be a
washout, meaning light rain initially will become more showery
with possible thunder late Mon thru early tue. A warm front will
lift across the local waters by early Tue with east to southeast
winds ahead of a warm front will veer to the SW after it's
passage early tue. The sfc pg will tighten late Mon night and
during Tue as a sub-1000mb area of low pressure having hooked up
with the warm front, pushes off the va capes or NE nc by tue
morning. The lows accompanying cold front will drop southward
and clear the local waters by midday tue.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 344 pm Saturday... This is shaping up to be a difficult marine
period, as a series of strong low pressure systems impact the coast.

Gusty SW winds 20-25 kt early Wednesday, will shift to north equally
strong, if not stronger during the day as N and NW winds kick up in a
cold air surge. Gusts to near gale force are not out of the question
Wednesday over the outer waters, with current numerical wave guidance
at fpsn7 assigning 7 feet Wednesday. Very cold temperatures will
greet mariners early Thursday, in a moderate, but biting, offshore

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Drh mjc
short term... Dch
long term... 8
aviation... Srp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 5 mi113 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi87 min NE 5.8 G 9.7 57°F 55°F1013.7 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi47 min 1016.5 hPa
41108 31 mi35 min 56°F3 ft
WLON7 41 mi47 min 65°F 55°F1012.9 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi110 min ENE 14 60°F 1013 hPa53°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi47 min E 11 G 11 53°F 57°F1013.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi87 min NE 5.8 G 9.7 53°F 55°F1013.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi35 min 55°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi42 minNE 1110.00 miFair64°F46°F52%1013 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi39 minN 910.00 miFair64°F46°F54%1013.6 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW11W12SW13SW17SW14SW9SW10SW11SW9SW6SW10SW7SW6W5W3W4W34N12N8N11N14NE6NE11
1 day agoW12
2 days agoSW18

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Sun -- 03:36 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:57 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:30 PM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:44 PM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.