Sunday, December17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:11PM Sunday December 17, 2017 8:42 AM EST (13:42 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 5:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming se late this morning, then becoming S 10 kt or less early this afternoon, becoming nw 10 kt or less late. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 kt, becoming ne. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 317 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move offshore with a weak pressure gradient continuing for the next couple of days across the waters. A cold front will move across the area by mid to late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171054
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
555 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Today will see a slow increase of clouds from the southwest
with weak high pressure prevailing into tonight. Temperatures
today will be seasonable. A frontal system oriented east to west
will stall just south of the forecast area by Monday and
persist thru the mid-week period. Low pressure will develop on
the stalled boundary and push off the sc coast late Wed and
offshore Thursday. Rain chances will be low Monday into Tuesday
then increase due to the low's passage during Wednesday.

High pressure will return and ridge across the area from the
ne states during the late week period. Temperatures will be
above normal during the upcoming work week and at times well
above normal.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am Sunday... A broad west to southwest flow will
develop across the region through the near term period. At
the surface high pressure will drift further offshore and a
diffuse surface pattern will develop across the eastern
carolinas. Plenty of cloud cover in the form of mid level
moisture will drift across the area later today from a weakening
system moving across the tennessee valley. The GFS as does the
hrrr actually develops a little light rain across northern areas
late today as whats left of this system races across. I did not
add pops at this point as the surface dryness will be tough to
overcome but it needs to be monitored. As for temperatures, off
to another cold start and opted to undercut guidance based on
the anticipated cloud cover and mos's performance Saturday.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 330 am Sunday... Split jetstream flow this period with the
southern branch mainly pushing across the fa this period keeping
any cold outbreaks well north of the local area. Ridging aloft
will extend across the SE states with weak sfc high prevailing.

A stalled east to west oriented frontal boundary will materialize
just south of the fa during this period. Along and north of this
front will see cloudiness with a low chance for light
rainshowers. Modest to good chance pops will occur later tue
into Wed as a mid-level S W trof and associated sfc low ejects
out of the desert SW and tracks along the gulf coast states,
reaching the alabama and georgia border by Wed morning.

Temperatures this period will run 10 to as much as 15 degrees
above normal.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Moisture poised to advect into the
area on Tuesday, perhaps rapidly, ahead of a decelerating front
that may stall over the region. The GFS is quickest with the
moisture advection and is likely too fast. Will ramp pops more
in accordance with slower guidance like the ec and canadian,
both implying a Tuesday night into Wednesday rain event. The
rain seems to shut off on Thursday as low pressure developing
off hatteras helps to push the boundary to our south. There may
not be much to scour out cloud cover while we are in this wedge-
like setup. Moisture will then further increase in a prefrontal
southwesterly flow regime on Friday. This front may arrive on
Saturday, with rain chances seemingly limited to FROPA and not
so much ahead of it.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
As of 12z... Weak low pressure will approach the region this evening.

Look for light southerly flow this morning. Mid and high clouds will
arrive this afternoon with rising dewpoints. Cloudy skies are
expected through the overnight hours, worst case MVFR ceilings and
visibilities after midnight.

Extended outlook... Unsettled weather Monday through Thursday
morning as a near stationary front moves in and out of the region.

Near term through Sunday ...

as of 330 am Sunday... Very light wind fields and seas will
continue through the period across the coastal waters. As high
pressure drifts east, a weak pressure pattern persists. This
lends itself to erratic wind directions and the forecast will
show north, west, and southwest winds represented, all ten knots
or below. Significant seas will remain benign as well with 1-3
feet and probably more like 1-2 feet.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 330 am Sunday... Weak high pressure early Mon will give way
to a stalled east to west oriented frontal boundary extending
inland near CAPE romain. Winds will generally be westerly at 10
kt Monday and increasing to 10 to 15 kt Tue with gusts up to 20
kt Tue night as the sfc pg tightens in advance of low pressure
along the stalled front approaching from the west. Could see
isolated showers Mon into Tue increasing in coverage late tue
thru Tue night. Significant seas will hover around 2 ft Mon into
tue with 2 to 3 ft Tue night except up to 4 ft for the waters
south of CAPE fear to little river inlet due to a longer fetch
with westerly wind directions. An easterly 1+ foot ground swell
at 9 to 10 second periods will dominate mon. Westerly wind
driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods will become dominate tue
into Tue night.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Westerly wind on Tuesday as high
pressure roosts in the bahamas and florida peninsula. A cold
front will drop into the waters and likely stall Tuesday night
as a wave of low pressure develops to our west. This low remains
fairly flat as the boundary sinks to our south on Wednesday
allowing a NE wind to spread southward across the waters.

Northerly winds will veer as Thursday progresses as the day
initially starts with a wedge of high pressure that weakens
later in the day.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... Shk
short term... Dch
long term... mbb
aviation... 43 marine...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi35 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 1026.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi43 min 1029.5 hPa (+0.6)
41108 31 mi43 min 57°F1 ft
WLON7 41 mi43 min 36°F 49°F1026.4 hPa (+1.2)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 43 mi58 min Calm 37°F 1026 hPa35°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi58 min Calm 36°F 1027 hPa35°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi43 min NW 4.1 G 4.1 41°F 55°F1026.7 hPa (+1.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi35 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 48°F 56°F1026.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi44 min 56°F1 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi50 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1026.5 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi47 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F92%1027.2 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN4NE86Calm4S8S8S7SW6SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmW4SW7SW8SW5W11W7W8
2 days agoW8

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Sun -- 01:08 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:44 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:15 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 02:35 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:16 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM EST     2.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.