Sunday, October22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Calabash, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:34PM Sunday October 22, 2017 1:28 PM EDT (17:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:53AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 908 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with scattered tstms.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers and scattered tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed and Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 908 Am Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will remain off the northeast u.s. Coast through tonight. A strong cold front will move off the east coast and across the local waters late Monday night and offshore early Tuesday. Cool, canadian high pressure will follow and affect the area waters through the end of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Calabash, NC
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location: 33.86, -78.57     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221520
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1119 am edt Sun oct 22 2017

Warm and dry weather is expected today, as high pressure moves
off to the northeast ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the area late Monday
through Tuesday morning, and some storms could be strong. Cooler air
will spread across the region through mid-week, as the front moves
off the coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 925 am Sunday... The air-mass will continue to transition today
as surface high pressure moves farther offshore and as the mid upper
ridge translates eastward ahead of the trough currently approaching
the ms valley. While low-level moisture has increased from 24h ago,
the kmhx sounding still shows considerable dry air above h85 with a
precipitable water below an inch. Better moisture transport will
occur farther south with some support for isolated or widely
scattered showers across the far southern zones later today and
tonight. Overall, expect partly cloudy skies today given the
increasing low-level moisture and advancing high cloudiness with the
departing mid upper ridge. Even with onshore flow we are expecting
afternoon high temperatures from the mid upper 70s at the beaches to
the lower 80s inland. Lows tonight will be above normal as well with
a veering flow and increasing cloud cover. In fact, normally this
part of the carolinas typically measures lows in the upper 40s
inland to around 50 at the coast. Lows tonight will likely range
from the lower 60s inland to the mid 60s at the coast.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 321 am Sunday... The chief caption this forecast period is
'wet and unsettled', as a vigorous low pressure system brings
strong warm air advection and a dampening, but negatively tilted
upper trough through Monday night. This will generate strong
low level winds, in excess of 50 kt below 850 mb, and the spc
has painted a 'marginal' risk here. An axis of enhanced 0-1 km
helicity will move NE across the forecast area several hours
either side of 6z Tuesday. This period could see a tornado watch

Mid-level drying in wake of the frontal system will curtail
rainfall by midday Tuesday. Latest QPF consensus suggests up to
an inch of rain on average is expected. This seems plausible
looking at the rich plume of tropical moisture over the eastern
gulf of mexico poised to be drawn northward. Tuesday will remain
mild in wake of the frontal band, before the onset of cold air
advection Tuesday night. Lows Wednesday at daybreak upper 40s
inland to mid 50s coast, much closer in line with climatology.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 220 pm Saturday... Other than Saturday, remainder of the
long term looks to be dry as high pressure moves east across the
eastern carolinas. Showers moving in advance of the next cold
front may impact the area on Saturday, but model solutions are
quite divergent so will keep pops on the low side. Temperatures
will drop to normal for late october on Tuesday in the wake of
fropa, then even cooler for Wednesday and Thursday before a
warming trend commences for the end of the week.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
As of 16z... Things will begin to deteriorate on Monday as a frontal
boundary approaches the region. Look for mainly east southeast flow
this afternoon with scattered CU and cirrus. Tonight, moisture will
be on the increase with winds slowly shifting to the south. There
could be an isolated shower that could move onshore, not enough
coverage to warrant a vcsh. After 12z, showers will be on the
increase and will move into the southern terminals by 14-15z. There
is the potential later in the day for stronger storms, but probably
after the forecast period.

Extended outlook... Intermittent ifr conditions are possible through
Tuesday morning. BecomingVFR by midday Tuesday.VFR Wednesday
through Friday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 925 am Sunday... High pressure will move farther off the
northeast u.S. And mid-atlantic coasts through tonight allowing
the flow to veer from an east direction to a southeast fetch.

Speeds will be around 10 knots today then increase tonight and
the fetch will support 3 ft seas today, and 3-4 ft tonight.

Some showers are also possible, especially across the southern
waters later today and tonight.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 321 am Sunday... An increasingly dangerous marine period
upcoming as a strong frontal system approaches and crosses the
coast late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Ahead of the
front Monday night and early Tuesday, 30 kt S wind gusts will be
common, as seas offshore build to 5-8 feet by daybreak Tuesday.

Additionally, a broken line of tstms or squall, may be severe
early Tuesday morning moving farther seaward. Wind and seas will
become markedly higher in and near tstms, since low-level winds
in the atmosphere will be strong and capable of being mixed to
the sea surface. The storms early Tuesday will be capable of
localized gusts to 55 kt. Mariners are encouraged to obtain
radar updates to avoid a possible squall passage.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 220 pm Saturday... A strong cold front will be in the
process of moving across the waters near the beginning of the
period and should be well east of the forecast area by Tuesday
night. Expect steadily improving conditions through mid- week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Mjc
long term... Rek
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 5 mi81 min E 9.7 G 16 74°F 73°F1026.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 23 mi41 min 1025.7 hPa
41108 31 mi59 min 74°F2 ft
WLON7 41 mi41 min 80°F 72°F1026.8 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 43 mi104 min E 8 75°F 1028 hPa67°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 48 mi104 min ENE 8.9 76°F 1026 hPa67°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi41 min ENE 11 G 12 73°F 75°F1027.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi81 min ENE 12 G 19 74°F 74°F1027 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 49 mi30 min 74°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC9 mi36 minE 1210.00 miFair78°F64°F64%1026.2 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC22 mi33 minE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
1 day ago4CalmS3S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N3N4NE3N6NE5E8E7
2 days agoSE6SE4SE5SE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmN4NE3N3N45NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
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Sun -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:16 AM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:52 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:22 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
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Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:36 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.