Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Little River, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:29PMMoonset 12:26AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1153 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft every 5 to 6 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 kt or less, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1153 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. A cold front will move into the area from the north late Thursday and stall. The front will lift north as a warm front Friday with bermuda high returning for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little River, SC
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location: 33.86, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201726
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
126 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
Dangerous afternoon and early evening heat will bake the area
today and Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms later today could
be strong as they generally move toward the east and southeast.

Expect scattered thunderstorm through much of the period, as a
trough of low pressure remains over the area within a humid
air mass. High pressure from the north may bring drying and
slight cooling next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 955 am Wednesday... No significant changes needed to the
ongoing forecast. Less mid level capping and intense surface
heating should help set the stage for a few storms today,
particularly in that several weak surface boundaries currently
prevail over the area, one noted in the visible channel offshore
of the pender-onslow line, and inferred vertical motions
associated with acc clouds near i-95. By 200 pm we should see
materialization of storms, and a general motion to the ese, may
produce a few strong to severe storms upon encountering and
interaction with a displaced piedmont trough over the area, and
the sea breeze front later today. The SPC has expanded the
'marginal' risk southward to include all of our area, this
likely accounting for the expected storm motion.

As of 330 am Wednesday... Temperatures today will run quite
close to those steamy values recorded yesterday as the setup
appears quite similar. As such a heat advisory is in effect,
which covers apparent temperatures that run 105-109. These again
were the values generally recorded yesterday afternoon. One
thing that appears to differentiate today from yesterday as that
the mid level ridge appears to flatten and retrograde just
enough to allow some impulse energy to traverse the area. With
such heat in place there will be ample fuel for thunderstorm
development. Offsetting the impetus for thunderstorm development
will be a fairly robustly dry 5kft subcloud layer. Have thus
portrayed lower rain chances amounts than what the very active
wrf is suggesting and followed the more tempered GFS solution.

Nc zones warrant slightly higher pops than sc due to the mid
level impulses moving by to the north and the remnants of an
impressive outflow boundary that dropped in from the north all
the way from storms along the nc va border. Thunder should die
off with the loss of instability but mid level energy continuing
to top the ridge will keep showers in the forecast overnight.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 330 am Wednesday... The intense heat will take a backseat
during this period, however the uncomfortable humidity will
remain elevated as pws remain high, ie. Basically between 2.0
to 2.25 inches.

The ridging aloft aiding the current heat wave, is progged to
suppress southward into the gulf of mexico. A closed upper low
over the kansas missouri nebraska and iowa state lines thu
morning, will drop southeastward thru thu, helping to suppress
the upper ridging southward to the gulf of mexico. With
diminished subsidence, convection will have an easier time to
develop and mature during this period. In addition, a frontal
boundary will drop toward the fcst area, stalling in the
vicinity late Thu thru fri, then lifting back north of the area
by Sat daybreak. With plenty of favoring sfc features to
provide convergence resulting in decent uvvs for convection to
develop both days but especially during fri. With the upper low
progged to open up to a short wave trof late in this period fri,
as it tracks along the ohio river valley. Models indicate a
slight negative tilt mid-level trof axis to swing across the fa
fri evening thru Sat morning. This will further aid convection
formation with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorm
action Fri night. Temps this period will run in the low to mid
90s Thu and in the 90-95 degree range fri.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm... Mid-level closed low will drop into the middle
mississippi river valley Friday, then open up and lift
northeast over the weekend. The 500 mb ridge axis will shift
offshore resulting in deep southwesterly flow Saturday. A
frontal boundary bisecting the forecast area Friday will lift
north Friday night, and will provide enhanced focus for showers
and thunderstorms. By Saturday and Sunday, convection can't be
ruled out but should be more scattered in nature. Sunday night
and Monday, pops will ramp back up as a shortwave pushes another
frontal boundary into the area. Will maintain low chance pops
Tuesday, as the GFS may be a little ambitious is how far south
the front will actually push.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... Diurnal CU beginning to develop across the area, andVFR
cigs are likely this aftn eve. A very unstable atmosphere will allow
these CU to grow into tstms, and high res guidance has come into
better agreement that sea breeze convection will develop shortly.

This will be followed by more widespread tstms during the evening in
response to a mid-level impulse moving to the north. With the higher
confidence that all terminals will receive tstms today, have added
vcts with tempo MVFR for all sites. Ifr is possible in heavier rain,
but this will be very short lived and can be handled with amd's as
needed. Winds will generally be W NW at 5-10 kts, with a backed sea
breeze to 15 kts at cre myr. Gusty and erratic winds are likely in
any stronger tstms.

Convection will persist several hours after dark and into the late
evening before winding down before midnight. This will leave sct bkn
vfr CIGS as debris cloudiness remains. Some fog will be possible,
especially at any terminal that receives heavier rain today, but
confidence is too low for a TAF mention attm. Best chance for fog
will be flo lbt where winds will be lighter.VFR resumes on Thursday
with similar conditions developing consisting of diurnalVFR CU and
sw winds 5-10 kts.

Extended outlook...VFR with possible short duration MVFR fog or ifr
cigs inland terminals early each morning. Scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms likely each day with short duration
restrictions possible.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 955 am Wednesday... Dominant wave energy will remain 3
foot SW waves every 5 seconds, with weak ese swell in the mix no
higher than 1 foot, bringing overall seas to 3-4 feet, highest
outer waters.

As of 330 am Wednesday... The piedmont trough grows broad today
on account of how hot the coastal plain grows this afternoon.

This will allow the southwesterly winds to abate by a few knots,
though the nearshore seabreeze circulation will persist. Seas
will continue to average 2-3 ft. Overnight the trough will move
back to its normal position allowing for an uptick in wind speed
by a few knots, introducing some 4 ft seas along outer waters.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 330 am Wednesday... Will have to deal with one more
occurrence of the pre-dawn low level jet influence to the local
wind regime. This low level SW to wsw jet will again be active
during the pre-dawn Thu hrs before finally dissipating by the
daytime mid-morning Thu hrs. The sea breeze circulation will
again set up shop by midday Thu and dissipate by mid to late
thu evening. As a result, active SW winds in the 10-15 g20 kt
range will dominate early Thu morning thru Thu night. A frontal
boundary or sfc trof of low pressure, will drop to and stall
across the area waters by Fri morning. This boundary will either
dissipate or lift back to the north as a warm front by late fri
night. Overall, winds will veer to the W to NW at 10 kt or
less, due to a relaxed sfc pg Fri into Fri night. Significant
seas will 2 to 4 ft with the 4 footers occurring at the height
of both, the low level jet influence and the sea breeze
circulation. Wind chop in the 4 to 6 second period range will
dominate the overall significant seas this period.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... A weak pressure gradient along with a
frontal boundary in the vicinity will result in relatively light
and variable winds Friday, becoming south-southwest in the
afternoon as the front lifts north. Increasing south westerlies
are expected Friday night through Saturday night between bermuda
high pressure and a piedmont trough. A frontal boundary is
expected to drop into nc on Sunday, but remain north of the
waters until perhaps early next week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Marine... None.

Near term... mbb 8
short term... Dch
long term... Crm
aviation... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 8 mi129 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 9 mi61 min SW 12 G 18 82°F 81°F1010.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 20 mi51 min 1014.3 hPa
41108 34 mi39 min 82°F3 ft
WLON7 44 mi51 min 88°F 83°F1010.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 46 mi84 min W 5.1 93°F 1011 hPa75°F
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 47 mi84 min SW 5.1 88°F 1011 hPa80°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC5 mi76 minSSW 1210.00 miFair89°F79°F72%1011 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi73 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F79°F70%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW17SW15SW16SW17SW14SW13SW9SW5SW6W9W6W6W6W6W3W5NW5W4NW5S6S11SW11S12SW16
1 day agoSW17SW20
G26
SW16N12S7SW11SW13SW8W7W7SW6W9W5W6W5W7W9W6W74W5W6S11SW11
2 days agoS12S13S14SW14S10SW11SW14SW11SW14SW12SW12W6W6W5SW5W5W6W6SW8SW9SW12SW13SW14SW17

Tide / Current Tables for Nixon Crossroads, South Carolina
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Nixon Crossroads
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Wed -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 AM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:23 PM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.93.84.44.443.22.21.20.3-0.1-00.71.82.93.84.24.23.72.91.90.90.30.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Pier, Atlantic Ocean, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Pier
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Wed -- 01:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 01:41 AM EDT     5.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:23 PM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.65.45.553.82.41.20.3-0.10.10.92.23.64.85.45.34.53.3210.50.412

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.