Friday, June23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Little River, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:31PM Friday June 23, 2017 1:14 PM EDT (17:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:43AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 955 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft...then 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 955 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will build westward across the area waters today. A cold front will approach from the west tonight into Saturday. This front should reach the waters by Sunday but may linger nearby until another front pushes it well offshore by Tuesday. Dry high pressure will build in behind this front Tuesday through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Little River, SC
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location: 33.86, -78.64     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231407
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1007 am edt Fri jun 23 2017

Bermuda high pressure will build westward over the eastern carolinas
through today. The remnants of cindy moving up from the gulf coast
will get absorbed into a cold front marching east reaching the
carolinas Saturday with an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms heading through the weekend. This cold front will
reach the coast by Sunday but will not get pushed completely
out of the area until a second front sweeps through by Tuesday.

Dry high pressure will build in through the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 945 am Friday... At the moment, the kltx 88d is echo free
across the ilm cwa. It will likely be short-lived, current
insolation is reaching the sfc allowing instability to quickly
increase. Pws are 2 inches and hier across the fa complements of
the tropical subtropical ridging extending NW from off the
southeast u.S. Coast but will have some mid-level drying that
pivots across the fa later today and tonight. Widespread
synoptic forcing will be lacking for convection to either get
started or to steadily continually develop. Will have to rely on
the mesoscale induced resultant wind bndry, aka the sea breeze,
with sw-wsw winds backing to the ssw. The sea breeze will
likely remain pinned close to the immediate coast given the
winds within the lower atm column, from sfc-700mb, remaining
quite active sw-wsw at 20-30 kt. Not looking at widespread
convection but pcpn that does occur will primarily be quick
heavy rain producers with storm motions progged at NE at 20-25

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .

As of 300 am Friday... An area of pcp will just miss our local
forecast area to the west early this morning but plenty of deep
layer moisture continues. A southwest flow around 5 mph or so
should keep fog out of the forecast but expect some low clouds
around especially inland through daybreak.

The atlantic ridge extending back westward over the southeast
coast will provide a drier upstream flow as compared to the
plentiful moisture we saw from cindy the last several days.

Water vapor imagery shows drier air in the mid to upper levels
working its way northward toward the carolinas. Therefore expect
the overcast mid to high level deck of clouds to break up today
leaving increasing sunshine through this afternoon. The
gradient will tighten as the remnant low of cindy moves up ahead
of a cold front which will be approaching the carolinas from
the west tonight. This will produce gusty s-sw winds through
today, especially along the coast in the afternoon sea breeze.

Expect some CU development along the sea breeze front as it
pushes inland and have included mainly isolated shwrs along this
boundary this afternoon. Hrrr once again shows best chc along or
just inland of sc coast this afternoon, but overall more
isolated in coverage. A warm start to the day, with temps in
the mid 70s, combined with sunshine will push temps up near 90 most
places in a continued moist tropical air mass. Heat index values
will reach over 100 degrees in many spots inland this afternoon.

This diurnal convection will come to an end this evening with
gusty winds continuing across the area. Temps will remain warm
once again with lows in the mid 70s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 300 am Friday... The upper pattern will support unsettled
weather across the carolinas this weekend as a series of
shortwaves dig out a longwave trough from the great lakes down
through the mississippi valley. The 500 mb subtropical ridge
that has been centered off the florida east coast for much of
the week will relocate out near bermuda Sunday as upper level
heights steadily fall along the southeast coast. Tropical storm
cindy's remnants will not directly affect our area, however the
airmass advected in with cindy and covering the carolinas
Saturday into Sunday should be exceptionally humid with
precipitable water values expected to reach 2.1 to 2.6 inches.

That will potentially reach the top 5 june pw values recorded
since 1948 using the mhx hat data from the SPC sounding
climatology webpage.

At the surface, the remnant circulation of cindy should race
off the mid-atlantic coast around daybreak Saturday. A cold
front extending from the appalachians into central texas will
slowly move into the eastern carolinas late Saturday night,
stalling Sunday before reaching the beaches. Saturday should
begin dry with some sunshine, but deeper moisture arriving
during the afternoon will intercept an unstable atmosphere
with CAPE 1500-2500 j kg. Scattered showers and storms should
develop along and west of the seabreeze front. Along with
plenty of lightning due to large CAPE up in the -10c to -30c
region aloft, the strongest of these storms could also produce
wet microbursts. Storms should remain only loosely organized due
to weak environmental shear.

The most serious weather might occur Saturday night as
what's left of cindy's gulf inflow jet moves across the eastern
carolinas. This is when the GFS and NAM both show excessive
precipitable water values present, and indicate a larger
proportion of environmental CAPE moving down below the freezing
level which favors efficient coalescence raindrop growth
processes that can produce excessive rainfall rates. I've
beefed up wording in the forecast to mention "heavy rain"
possible Saturday night. Still too much uncertainty with
coverage and duration to issue any flood watch products.

With the front stalled near the coast Sunday another round of
scattered showers and storms should develop during the day.

Precipitable water values should return to "normal" wet-summer
conditions around 2.0 inches. As the longwave trough takes
shape to our west Sunday night, increasingly westerly wind
directions should begin to advect drier air into the carolinas,
leading to a reduction in precipitable water values and
eventually pushing the stalled cold front off the coast late
Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Cold front will be stalled along the
coast Monday before being pushed offshore and out of the area
by Tuesday. The stalled boundary combined with deep SW flow
aloft and residual moisture from the departing remnants of ts
cindy will create a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
the into Monday. The GFS has been consistent with widespread
activity mainly near or along the coast on Monday, and now the
latest ecm cmc have trended in that direction as well. Pwats
fall on Monday from west to east, so the highest pop will be at
the coast on Monday, but an unsettled period is expected until
a secondary front beneath an anomalously deep trough clears
everything out by Tuesday.

This secondary front will usher in much cooler air for the
remainder of the period. 850mb temps crash towards +10c, near
the bottom 10th percentile for late june, and highs will likely
remain at least 5 degrees below climo Tue Wed with dewpoints
potentially falling into the 50s! This will feel quite
refreshing, especially after the high humidity of Sunday. By
Thursday the surface high shifts offshore and height rises
begin again, so temps and humidity will increase, but remain
below seasonable norms into late week.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... The eastern carolinas are in a very humid
southwesterly flow today with bermuda high pressure offshore.

Low stratocumulus clouds across the area this morning should
lift above 3000 feet by noon as strong june sunshine warms the
air. Thunderstorms should be only isolated in coverage today,
mainly developing along the seabreeze front after 17z. Vcts has
been added to the myr and cre forecasts, with potential less
than 20 percent at other area airports.VFR conditions are
expected otherwise this afternoon and tonight with breezy
southwest winds possibly gusting to 25 knots near the beaches.

Extended outlook... Local MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are anticipated to be most widespread Saturday

Near term through tonight ...

as of 945 am Friday... Marine conditions will slowly erode today,
reaching scec conditions during this evening, and further erode
to SCA conditions after midnight tonight. This a result of the
sfc pg, having already tightened, is progged to further tighten
ahead of a cold front that will drop southeast to the western
carolinas late tonight. At the same time, the cindy remnants,
will move along this cold front, reaching the DELMARVA coast sat
morning. Wind directions will run ssw-sw at 10 to 20 kt speeds
thru this evening and veer slightly to sw-wsw at 15 to 25 kt
speeds by and or after midnight tonight. Wind driven waves at 3
to 5 second periods will dominate the significant seas. Moderate
to strong longshore currents will become apparent, especially
south of CAPE fear to murrells inlet.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 am Friday... Atlantic ridge reaching back westward
into the southeast coastal waters will maintain a S to SW flow
over the local waters through tonight. The remnant low from
cindy moving up from the western gulf coast will combine with a
cold front marching east toward the carolinas, tightening the
gradient flow through today. Therefore expect increasing
southerly flow from 10 to 15 kts up to 15 to 20 kts through this
afternoon into tonight. Expect especially gusty winds near the
coast in afternoon sea breeze.

This persistent southerly flow will push seas up from 2 to 4 ft
early to 3 to 5 ft by midnight and increasing further to 4 to 6
ft overnight into early Saturday.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 300 am Friday... The remnants of former tropical storm
cindy will race off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday morning
just ahead of a cold front advancing toward the east coast. This
front will slow as it moves into the carolinas Saturday night,
stalling just inland from the beaches Sunday. Several waves of
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area,
especially Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon. The front
should finally begin to move out across the coastal waters very
late Sunday night with winds shifting to the north.

Breezy conditions are expected Saturday into Saturday evening
as the pressure gradient should tighten between bermuda high
pressure offshore and the cold front approaching from the west.

Add the seabreeze in and wind gusts could easily exceed 25 knots
Saturday afternoon. A small craft advisory will remain in
effect through Saturday night for these winds and seas in the
4-6 foot range.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Stalled cold front along coast will
waver in the vicinity Monday before a secondary front pushes
everything out to sea and clears the waters on Tuesday. Winds
will fluctuate between S to the east of front and W behind it
on Monday, but the weak gradient immediately near the front
will keep winds at 10 kts or less regardless of direction. As
the second front kicks everything off to the east on Tuesday,
winds will become northerly, with speeds around 10 kts. A 2
ft 8sec SE swell will exist in the spectrum each day, and thanks
to light winds on mon, it will likely be the predominant wave
group despite a present S SW wind-wave. Seas will be 2-3 ft most
of mon, and then fall further to 1-2 ft Tuesday as the winds
turn offshore.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Sunday
for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Dch rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Jdw
aviation... Tra

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 8 mi135 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi67 min SW 9.7 G 14 80°F 80°F1017 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 20 mi45 min 1016.3 hPa
WLON7 44 mi45 min 86°F 82°F1016.3 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 46 mi90 min SSW 12 84°F 1017 hPa75°F
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 47 mi90 min W 4.1 86°F 1018 hPa76°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC5 mi22 minSSW 1610.00 miA Few Clouds85°F75°F75%1016.7 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi25 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F77°F79%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmS4SW5SE4S4S6S7S7S8S6SW10S9SW9SW8SW10SW7W5SW7SW7SW10SW13SW14SW14S16
1 day agoNE3SE7S8SE5SE5SE6S3S4S4S6SW3SW6SW6SW7SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmW3S6S5SW13SW7
2 days agoSW14W4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N3N3N3N5N5N6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Nixon Crossroads, South Carolina
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Nixon Crossroads
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Fri -- 02:44 AM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:14 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Pier, Atlantic Ocean, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Pier
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Fri -- 01:21 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:22 PM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.