Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manhattan Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 12:31 PM PST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:55AMMoonset 9:23PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 805 Am Pst Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W to nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 805 Am Pst Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst...a 1030 mb high was over eastern utah with a ridge extending to a 1021 mb high 200 nm sw of point conception. A weak trough of low pressure was along the southern ca coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manhattan Beach city, CA
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location: 33.88, -118.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 221814
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1014 am pst Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
Strong upper level high pressure and offshore flow will bring
very warm and dry weather to the area through Thursday, with
record or near record temperatures expected. The high will weaken
Friday through the weekend with a cooling trend through early
next week. A weakening frontal system could bring light rain to
northern areas late in the weekend, followed by gusty north winds
and cool weather Monday. Warmer weather is expected Tuesday as
north winds transition to a santa ana wind event.

Short term (tdy-fri)
a very strong 595 dm upper high was located off the coast of
northern baja ca early this morning, with a strongly amplified
ridge extending into southwest california. This unusually strong
upper level ridge combined with with a stronger offshore flow
this morning (lax-daggett peaking at -6.7 mb) will bring
widespread record breaking temperatures across the region
today. In fact, some locations could see records shattered
by as much as 5 to 10 degrees! Early morning profiler data over
lax showing very impressive warming in the boundary layer (with
950 mb temperatures of 28 degrees celsius) which is up around 4
degrees celsius from this time yesterday. Based on the pressure
gradient and boundary layer trends, have increased temperatures
upward in some locations for today. The most notable increase
is across the ventura county coastal plain which could see some
of the hottest temperatures today due to the downslope
compressional heating associated with the offshore winds, with
a projected high temperature of 97 degrees today at camarillo!
offshore winds will generally gust between 25 and 35 mph today
across typical passes and canyons of la ventura counties this
morning, with isolated gusts as 40 mph in the mountains.

The combination of hot temperatures, low humidities, gusty
offshore winds, and very dry fuels will bring elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions today, especially los angeles
and ventura counties.

*** from previous discussion ***
the upper pattern will change little through thu, although the
upper high may be nudged a bit southward during the day as a
broad trough moves into the eastern pacific. Low level gradients
are still forecast to be about 4 mb offshore between klax and kdag
in the morning, then become neutral in the afternoon. There may
be some locally gusty northeast winds in the mtns and foothills
tonight and early thu, but far below advisory levels. It will be
another very warm night, with lows again in the 70s in the
foothills and in windy areas. Heights and thicknesses will fall
ever so slightly on thu, as will temps at 950 mb. Expect a couple
of degrees of cooling on thu, especially near the coast. However,
high temps should still reach or exceed 90 degrees in the
valleys, and possibly across the interior plain. The highest
temperature ever recorded on thanksgiving in downtown los angeles
was 90 degrees, set on november 26th, 1903. That record is in
jeopardy tomorrow.

The models show the upper high beginning to weaken on fri, and
onshore flow in the afternoon will increase. Expect several
degrees of cooling on fri, especially west of the mountains, but
temps should still be well above normal in most areas.

Long term (sat-tue)
the upper high will continue to weaken and shift eastward over
the weekend as an upper trough approaches the west coast, so the
cooling trend will continue. Temperatures should still be above
normal Saturday, then closer to normal by Sunday.

Latest models show a bit of sharpening with the trough as it moves
onshore, and it now appears that the southern end of a weakening
cold front could bring some light rain to areas north of point
conception late Sunday into Sunday night or very early Monday.

Strong north to south gradients will develop once the trough axis
moves to the east of the region on Monday. It looks as though
there may be some rather strong northerly winds in the mountains
and across the sba south coast later Monday into Monday night,
followed by a possible strong santa ana wind event Tuesday. While
it is still very early, the GFS and ECMWF models are in good
agreement on the upper level pattern and potential for a strong
north-northeast wind event in the Monday night-Tuesday time period.

Aviation 22 1750z...

at 1726z, there was a surface-based inversion at klax. The top of
the inversion was around 1600 feet with a temperature of 29
degrees celsius.

High confidence in 18z TAF package as weak offshore flow will
keep all sitesVFR through the period.

Klax... High confidence in 18z taf.

Kbur... High confidence in 18z taf.

Marine 22 1000 am...

for the outer waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory (sca)
levels through tonight. For Thursday Friday, northwest winds are
likely to increase to SCA levels across pzz670 673 and remain just
below SCA levels for pzz676. There is a 40% chance that a sca
will be needed for the NW portion of pzz670 Thursday afternoon
through early Friday morning. Winds will begin to shift out of the
south late Friday night into Saturday with local gusts to around
25 kt across the northern portion of the outer waters. The best
chance for widespread SCA level gusts will be by Sunday afternoon
when the winds shift back to the nw. 70% confidence factor for sca
for the outer waters by late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Sunday, although there is a 20%
chance of SCA level winds Thursday afternoon evening. For the
waters south of point conception, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Sunday. There will be local gusts
to around 20 mph nearshore between ventura and malibu for
Wednesday morning.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
warm and very dry conditions are expected Friday which
will continue to bring elevated fire danger. There is the
potential for greater fire weather impacts Monday night into
Tuesday. On Monday night, there will be the potential for
strong northerly winds and lowering humidities, followed
by the potential for a strong santa ana wind event and even
lower humidities on Tuesday.

Public... Gomberg db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan
synopsis... Db sirard
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 10 mi49 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 77°F 61°F1017 hPa
BAXC1 12 mi43 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9
PSXC1 12 mi43 min S 2.9 G 4.1
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 12 mi31 min 67°F2 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 13 mi43 min 62°F1016.7 hPa
PFDC1 13 mi49 min S 1.9 G 1.9
PFXC1 14 mi43 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 74°F
AGXC1 14 mi43 min SSW 6 G 6 71°F 1016.8 hPa
PRJC1 16 mi43 min WSW 5.1 G 5.1
46256 17 mi39 min 63°F2 ft
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi31 min 65°F2 ft
46253 24 mi31 min 66°F2 ft
46262 34 mi31 min 67°F2 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 35 mi31 min S 1.9 G 1.9 65°F1016.5 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA4 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair93°F35°F13%1016.3 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA5 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair92°F37°F15%1016.3 hPa
Torrance, Zamperini Field Airport, CA7 mi44 minN 010.00 miClear90°F41°F18%1016.6 hPa
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA11 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair91°F34°F13%1016.5 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA12 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair91°F36°F14%1016 hPa
Long Beach, Long Beach Airport, CA14 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair91°F46°F21%1016.3 hPa
Los Alamitos Army Airfield, CA20 mi93 minN 010.00 miFair86°F46°F25%1017.5 hPa
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA22 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair90°F39°F17%1016.1 hPa
Van Nuys, Van Nuys Airport, CA23 mi40 minNNW 1010.00 miFair92°F30°F11%1016.4 hPa
Fullerton, Fullerton Municipal Airport, CA23 mi38 minVar 310.00 miFair93°F41°F16%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from LAX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W8W8SW6W7W3CalmW5CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5CalmNE4CalmE4E5CalmCalm
1 day agoW8W8W6W5CalmCalmCalmW3SW4W6N4SE5E3NE5SE3E4E3E3E3W83SW5W6W8
2 days agoW7W12W10W10W16W8SW4W5CalmSE3E5CalmE5E5E6SE5E4N4CalmCalmSE5SE53SW8

Tide / Current Tables for El Segundo, Santa Monica Bay, California
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El Segundo
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Wed -- 12:05 AM PST     3.46 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:13 AM PST     2.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:54 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM PST     5.04 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:05 PM PST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.43.12.82.72.73.13.64.24.7554.63.9321.10.60.30.50.91.62.32.9

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
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Wed -- 04:02 AM PST     2.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:18 AM PST     5.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:57 PM PST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.43.22.92.82.93.33.84.44.95.25.14.73.9321.10.60.40.61.11.82.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.