Thursday, April26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday April 26, 2018 7:06 AM EDT (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 3:43AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 321 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Today..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming E 10 kt or less late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming se late. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 321 Am Edt Thu Apr 26 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold fronts will move across the waters this morning. The front will stall and then return northwest later this afternoon. Another cold front will cross the waters on Friday with another front expected Sunday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 260722
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
322 am edt Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis
Fair conditions today will be followed by showers and a few
thunderstorms late tonight and early Friday, as a low pressure
system tracks from northern georgia to southern virginia
overnight. A stalled front inland, Friday and Saturday, will be
kicked offshore by canadian high pressure before sunrise Sunday.

This will usher in a drying trend, with slight cooling Sunday
and Monday, followed by warming through mid week.

Near term through tonight
As of 322 am Thursday... Weak cold front moves across the area
around daybreak, then stalls after moving off the coast.

Surface low developing over the southeast this morning, under a
5h shortwave trough moving through the large scale 5h trough,
moves east today, lifting the front back into the area as a warm
front this afternoon. Forecast soundings do show some surface
based instability during the day today, but weak mid-level
capping may prevent any showers until the environment becomes
more favorable late in the day and into the evening.

Approaching shortwave this evening increases divergence aloft
and provides an increase in deep moisture. Mid-level lapse
rates steepen considerably late in the day with convection
seeming more likely, especially across portions of sc. Timing is
the biggest issue. The dynamics associated with the wave arrive
very late in the day, at which time diurnal instability will
have peaked and be starting to trend down. So while a few strong
updrafts cannot be ruled out, mainly across inland sc, the
potential for severe weather may be minimalized by the late
timing. SPC continues to carry a small area of marginal in the
day 1 outlook which covers most of darlington and brushes
florence and marlboro counties. However, confidence in this is
low. Any convection that is able to persist overnight will be on
the weak side and will start winding down during the early
morning hours.

Varying amounts of cloud cover today, increasing in the late
morning and afternoon due to heating, will keep highs confined
to the mid to upper 70s. Some areas across inland sc could hit
80 with an extended period of sunshine. Cloud cover coupled with
modest boundary layer winds will keep lows well above climo
overnight, mid to upper 50s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 322 am Thursday... 'devolving' low complex dawn Friday is
over north-central nc, lifting north, swept then absorbed with
a northern stream low over the great lakes, leaving a dangling,
quasi-stationary frontal boundary waffling along the coastal
interior. Despite the shallow nature of moisture in vertical
profiles, lapse rates associated with the cool pool will prompt
moderate cumulus Friday afternoon, possibly isolated showers,
albeit low topped, capped by arid wsw aloft. This, diurnally
favored around peak heating and in proximity to the surface
boundary locality.

Saturday setting up to be a nice sunny and warm day, with 80s in
the cards, in a weak but impactful, dry, warm sector. FROPA late
Saturday night, offshore prior to daybreak Sunday will have a
passage without much consequence, aside from winds becoming n-ne
and slightly cooler min-t heading into early Sunday, middle 50s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 325 pm Wednesday... Cool high pressure at the surface
through the remainder of the weekend. Although temperatures will
be cooler than normal Sunday and Monday the weather will be
quite tolerable with highs generally in the lower 70s with clear
skies. A warm-up is expected by mid-week as the high moves off
the coast with as return flow develops.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... Clouds lingering around 6k ft this morning will
start to expand in coverage later this morning as heating
coupled with colder air aloft increases low level instability.

Shortwave moving into the area later in the day may generate
some late day evening convection that lingers in the area a
little past midnight. Isolated thunder is possible, but
potential is low and have not included within the forecast with
the latest issuance. Light and variable winds this morning will
become southeast with afternoon sea breeze increasing speeds
along the coast.

Extended outlook... Tempo MVFR tonight through sat. Otherwise
vfr.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 322 am Thursday... Have allowed nc exercise caution
headline to expire at 0300 with seas continuing to diminish.

Weak cold front moves off the coast this morning then stalls
just east of the waters. Front is quick to move back inland as a
warm front during the day with light and variable winds in the
morning becoming southeast this afternoon. Speeds stay under 10
kt into the evening before weak low approaching from the
southwest slowly increases the gradient. Southerly flow
increases to 10 to 15 kt overnight, becoming southwest late in
the period. Seas 3 to 4 ft this morning will slowly decrease
during the day, dropping to 2 to 3 ft by the afternoon. Slight
increase in winds overnight will push seas back to 3 to 4 ft
late in the period.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 322 am Thursday... This will be a manageable marine
period, with Friday the breeziest and bumpiest day, SW winds
gusting between 20 and 25 kt in the afternoon inshore, aided by
the sea breeze circulation enhancement. Then another gusty
period Saturday night, winds veering to wsw-w, gusting to 20 kt
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will bring a wind
shift to north before first light of Sunday, 15 kt or less. Seas
3-4 ft this period, so no advisories appear to be needed. Seas
will be a mix of SW wind waves every 6 seconds, and SE waves
swell every 9 seconds. Isolated marine showers possible Friday
but drier Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... High pressure builds in from the
northwest through Sunday night. The high will build over the
waters during Monday. Northerly winds in the wake of the front
Sunday morning. Variable flow is expected Monday as the high
builds overhead. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are possible during Sunday,
otherwise they will subside to around 2 ft Monday with a weak
pressure gradient overhead.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Iii
short term... Mjc
long term... Srp
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi37 min 62°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi59 min E 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 63°F1010 hPa
SSBN7 22 mi105 min 2 ft
WLON7 24 mi49 min 60°F 65°F1010.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi37 min 62°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi119 min W 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 63°F1009 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi49 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 63°F 64°F1010.7 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi37 min W 3.9 G 3.9 1010.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi59 min W 3.9 G 7.8 65°F 66°F1010.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi49 min 1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair58°F57°F98%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W7SW9
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W8W7W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS10
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E8SE8SE8SE7S5SW5S4S4S6SW4W7SW7W4SW7SW5SW5
2 days agoE6E3E7E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Thu -- 04:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     5.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.212.33.64.65.14.94.131.80.80-0.10.41.52.94.25.15.34.83.92.61.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:07 PM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.212.13.24.24.84.84.23.32.10.90.1-0.10.41.42.63.74.654.842.81.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.