Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:06PM Sunday November 19, 2017 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 336 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
AMZ200 336 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A strong cold front will move off the coast and across the waters this morning. Strong high pressure will follow and build across the local waters through Tuesday. A coastal trough will form near the waters Wednesday. An area of low pressure may develop along this coastal trough late next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 190550
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1250 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will pass through the area late tonight and
Sunday morning. The front may be accompanied by some gusty late
night showers. The front will usher in much colder and drier air
with Monday seeing the lowest daytime highs with the possibility
for a freeze or frost late Sunday night and Monday night.

Temperatures will moderate Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast
uncertainty increases mid to late next week as another cold
front moves into the area. The weather could turn unsettled and
will hinge on the track of developing low pressure in the
gulf of mexico.

Near term through tonight
As of 9 pm Saturday... A quiet evening before the cold front
descends upon us. Warm advection in advance of the cold front
keeping temperatures quite elevated as compared to yesterday at
this time, with readings in the mid 60s most places. Latest from
spc has out counties west of i-95 in a thunderstorm risk area,
but not in a severe category. At the pace of the approaching
line of convection, still looks like an early morning arrival at
the earliest. Forecast looks good to go, no changes
anticipated. Previous discussion from this afternoon follows:
a potent shortwave as seen on water vapor imagery across kansas
will rapidly move across the area tonight all the while
shearing out. This will bring a moisture challenged cold front
across the area with timing a couple of hours either side of 12
utc. Models have trended drier with the front with at most a
broken line of fast moving showers moving from west to east.

Winds will crank up tonight ahead of the front at 15-25 mph with
higher gusts. With the fast moving flow, clouds and what few
showers there are will clear out quickly Sunday. Lows tonight
will not fall off much with the gradient increasing with middle
to upper 50s common. For Sunday there is some cold air advection
but certainly not overwhelming with highs in the lower to
middle 60s.

Short term Monday through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... With pw values a mere 0.2" for much of the
period there will likely not be a cloud in sight. The exception may
be some wisps of cirrus Monday night as some upper jetting
strengthens off the coast and the carolinas end up near the left
entrance region. Mid level clouds may also be lurking close by to
our SW in a tongue of enhanced warm advection. While moisture will
be in short supply cold air will not. Forecast soundings show as
little as 2000ft of vertical mixing through Monday afternoon,
keeping high temperatures mired in the 50s even as moderate warm
advection will be occurring at higher levels. Both nights will
feature an inland light freeze while temperatures closer to the
water remain in the upper 30s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A couple of short wave troughs in the
southern stream will have some impact on area weather in much of the
extended period though confidence is currently low in exactly what
those impacts will be due to model divergence.

The first upper trough will bring a chance of showers to the area
Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. After
this fropa, the second upper trough could spawn low development
along the front off shore and bring rain to the area Thursday into
Friday.

For now... The forecast reflects slight chance to chance pops Tuesday
into Wednesday with slight chance pops for Wed night into Friday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of the mid 60s Tuesday
and Wednesday before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for
Thursday and Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected
Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mins will see a
similar trend falling from the mid to upper 40s Tuesday night to the
mid 30s to around 40 Thursday night before rebounding to the 40s by
Saturday night.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
As of 06z... Weakening squall line apparent on regional mosaic is
associated with a cold front crossing the appalachians this morning.

This front will move quickly eastward, crossing all the terminals
overnight, and be offshore shortly after daybreak. As this occurs, a
brief 2-4 hr window of showers with MVFR vsbys CIGS is likely, but
should not be more than transient and have carried tempo MVFR at all
terminals to account for this. A more steady impact to aviation will
be gusty winds, from the SW ahead of the front up to 25 kts, and
from the NW on Sunday with only a slow decrease in speeds. Wind
gusts will likely persist to near 20 kts all day Sunday from the nw,
before easing late in the valid period as high pressure ridges in
from the west. Cloud cover will dissipate rapidly on Sunday such
that skc will become the rule by late morning and persist through
Sunday night.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected Sunday through
Tuesday morning. Possible MVFR in showers Tuesday night through
Wednesday.VFR Thursday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 9 pm Saturday... Winds are increasing and seas building
according to the latest obs. For now estimate that seas are 3 to
5 ft over a majority of the waters with winds of 15 to 20 kts
gusting to around 25 kts. Still expect conditions to deteriorate
further as the night GOES on. No changes needed with the latest
forecast update. Previous discussion follows:
quiet enough over the coastal waters currently with with winds
in the lower teens and seas three feet or so. Winds and seas
will rapidly increase this evening through the overnight hours
well into a 25-30 knot range. This, as strong low level jetting
precedes a cold front. There may be some gusts into gale
criteria but since the strongest winds will be in warm air
advection, the need for a gale warning isn't a given. Winds turn
offshore early Sunday, from the north, northwest at 15-20.

Significant seas ramp up quickly from the current three feet to
well over small craft criteria by midnight and continue through
most of the day Sunday.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Sunday night brings a moderately strong yet
relaxing gradient as chilly high pressure airmass builds in from the
west. Flow will veer slightly from NW to N or even NE and advisory-
worthy wind speeds should be outside of the 20nm zones. On Monday
expect a more pronounced relaxation of winds and seas due to the
high moving overhead. The high remains over the area Monday night
while elongating to the east. Winds will remain minimal and turn
onshore while seas smooth into the 1-2 ft range most areas.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Return flow behind the departing high
Tuesday will buckle as a coastal trough develops along the southeast
coast. Winds should turn easterly on Tuesday, then perhaps
southeasterly for a time Tuesday night as the trough makes its
closest approach to shore, but by Wednesday morning the feature
should retreat back offshore as high pressure advances across the
ohio valley and shifts our winds to a more north to northeast
direction. Light winds and slight seas are expected until Wednesday
night or Thursday when NE winds of 15 to 20 kt could build seas to 4
to 5 ft with 6 footers possible at 20 nm.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rek jdw
short term... mbb
long term... Ran
aviation... Jdw
marine... All


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi52 min 63°F7 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi67 min WSW 11 68°F 1005 hPa59°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi44 min SW 19 G 27 66°F 63°F1004.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi53 min 64°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi44 min SW 18 G 25 67°F 64°F1005.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi42 min SW 27 G 33 73°F 72°F1006 hPa62°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi44 min SW 23 G 35 70°F 67°F1005.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi67 minSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4S5S6S4S4S4S5S4SW7SW8SW7
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1 day agoN7N6N6N7NE9NE7N12NE9
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2 days agoNW4N3CalmCalmNW5NW7NW8NW10N5NW7NW6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N5

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
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Sun -- 01:21 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EST     5.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:55 PM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:18 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:46 PM EST     4.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.20.312.23.54.75.45.553.92.71.40.60.30.61.52.73.84.54.64.23.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EST     5.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:05 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:17 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.20.20.92.13.34.355.34.94.131.80.80.30.61.52.63.54.24.44.23.52.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.