Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:32PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:39 PM EDT (16:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:59AMMoonset 9:35PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1159 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through late Friday night...
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt...becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1159 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure today will give way to a storm system moving across the tonight through Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend only to be followed by another storm system early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 301448
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1048 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Showers and storms will move in from the west and southwest
late this afternoon and evening, and again overnight into
Friday. A few storms could be strong to severe. A cold front
will follow late Friday, with a drying trend into the weekend
as high pressure takes hold. Low pressure early next week will
bring more showers and thunderstorms. Brief high pressure may
be followed by another round of showers and thunderstorms next
Thursday and Thursday night.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 1048 am Thursday... Showers and storms have fired already
this morning from eastern georgia northward into western south
carolina. This activity will be maintained while propagating in
a general northeast direction, reaching the i-95 corridor by 6
pm. Loss of heating is expected to ease storm intensity into
early evening however, but a small window of opportunity exists
for a strong to severe storm there late in the day. Since the
synoptic flow will nearly parallel the sea breeze trajectory,
virtually no convergence is expected and thus not expecting sea
breeze convection this afternoon. Overnight, the associated
convergence and lift from a warm front will likely set showers
and storms off offshore after midnight, moving north into the
cape fear region in the pre-dawn hours. Concurrently, active
showers and storms ongoing, should be moving in from the west
ahead of an approaching cold front. Instability of moderate
degree could spur a few strong to severe storms around and after
daybreak through morning.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
As of 300 am Thursday... A broad area of low pressure will be
moving across the ohio valley and central appalachians and mid-
atlantic states Fri with a complex frontal system trailing
south. A warm front and its associated isentropic lift will be
moving across the forecast area Fri with widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected. We may become dry slotted Fri ahead of a
cold front which will move across the area later Fri or fri
night. High pressure will then build from the N Sat and sat
night as a mid- level ridge builds across the southeast.

There continues to be a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
fri. The timing of this system should help to mitigate the risk.

However, 0-6 km effective bulk shear values will be in the 40 to
50 kt range and instability does increase with mixed layer cape
values peaking in the 500 to 1000 j/kg. Low level jetting
increases to 40 to 45 kt. Thick clouds and rainfall should help
to mitigate the instability, especially early on, but a period
of dry slotting may allow clouds to thin during Fri which could
support greater instability and increase the severe risk.

Highs on Fri will be in the mid and upper 70s with lower 70s at
the south facing beaches. Any significant breaks in the clouds
may allow temps to surge into the lower 80s Fri afternoon. Lows
late Fri night will drop into the mid and upper 50s with around
60 at the beaches. Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper
70s with a few 80 degree readings possible across inland
locations. It will be a little cooler Sat night, mainly lower
to mid 50s.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 300 am Thursday... Strong low pressure will be pulling NE across
the canadian maritimes Sun as high pressure becomes well
established across the carolinas. The center of the high will
move E of the area Sun night as next in series of potent
southern stream systems across the ark-la-tex Mon moves east
across the southern appalachians and carolinas tue, then
accelerates to the NE and intensifies offshore of the mid-
atlantic states late Tue and Tue night. Yet another area of low
pressure and its associated frontal system will approach the
area Wed night with its greatest impacts across the eastern
carolinas expected thu/thu night.

The system early in the week has the potential to bring strong
to severe thunderstorms. This very progressive pattern is
expected to bring rainfall, some of which will be significant.

After a dry Sun and Sun night, pops will be increasing Mon with
the most widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms likely
mon night with a decreasing trend on tue. A return to dry
weather Tue night through Wed night may very well be followed by
more showers and thunderstorms thu/thu night.

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/
As of 12z... Some stratus around this morning near klbt and kilm
primarily. Will add scattered stratus below 1 kft at kilm and
tempo ifr ceiling at klbt through about 14z.

Expect scattered to broken cumulus and stratocumulus to develop
as heating gets underway, at times ceilings will drop to MVFR.

For later this afternoon and tonight, expect ceilings to lower
with showers and thunderstorms increasing from SW to NE with
the coastal terminals the last to experience widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity very late in the valid TAF period. Expect
ceilings and visibilities to drop to MVFR and ifr in rain.

Extended outlook... MVFR to ifr conditions likely persisting
into at least the first part of fri. More showers and
thunderstorms developing Mon and through Mon night will have the
potential to produce flight restrictions.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 1048 am Thursday... Bulk of wave energy from ese every
9-10 seconds. This will prevail this afternoon but transition to
shorter wave periods tonight and overnight as winds increase
and wind-waves build.

A small craft advisory has been issued for all waters late
tonight through Fri and into Fri night.

Winds will continue to slowly relax through the morning hours
allowing the seas to follow into a 2-4 foot range as the wedge
of high pressure responsible for the conditions weakens and
begins to retreat. Winds will increase once again late tonight
from the southeast in a range of 15-20 knots and seas will
follow well into small craft criteria by Friday morning.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...

as of 300 am Thursday... Small craft advisory conditions will be
ongoing at the start of the period and are expected to wind down
fri night.

A broad area of low pressure will be moving across the ohio
valley and central appalachians and mid-atlantic states fri
with a complex frontal system trailing south. Widespread
showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be strong to
possibly severe, will be ongoing at the start of the period as a
warm front moves across the waters.

The wind direction will be s, veering to SW Fri and then W and
finally NW toward Sat morning with passage of the cold front.

Winds will generally be NW Sat although winds will have a
tendency to back ahead of reinforcing cold and dry push. Winds
will then veer back to NW Sat eve and to NE overnight sat. Wind
speeds will be 20 to 25 kt fri, diminishing to around 15 kt
overnight Fri into Sat before diminishing further later Sat and
sat night as high pressure becomes firmly established.

Seas will be 5 to 7 ft fri, subsiding slowly to 3 to 5 ft fri
night due to backswell and then to 2 or 3 ft late Sat and sat
night.

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...

as of 300 am Thursday... Small craft advisory conditions
likely developing Mon and continuing into tue. Gusts to gale
force can not be ruled out.

Strong low pressure will be pulling NE across the canadian
maritimes Sun as high pressure becomes well established across
the carolina waters. The center of the high will move E of the
waters Sun night as next in series of potent southern stream
systems across the ark-la-tex Mon moves east across the southern
appalachians and carolinas tue, then accelerates to the NE and
intensifies offshore of the mid-atlantic states late Tue and
tue night.

The worst of the marine conditions with the system early next
week will come Mon afternoon, peaking Mon night and Tue morning.

Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be impacting
the waters during this time. Sustained wind speeds will be up
to 25 to 30 kt with higher gusts. The direction will be sse to s
on mon, veering to SW Mon night and eventually to the W later
tue. Seas will be building Mon and peaking in the 6 to 9 ft
range Mon night and early on tue.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Saturday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Mjc
short term... Rjd
long term... Rjd
aviation... Rjd/srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi53 min 60°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi115 min ENE 12 59°F 1020 hPa53°F
SSBN7 22 mi70 min 2 ft
WLON7 24 mi52 min 70°F 62°F1020.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi41 min 59°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi92 min ENE 12 G 21 59°F 58°F1020.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi52 min NE 13 G 16 59°F 61°F1019.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi40 min E 14 G 18 70°F 74°F1019.5 hPa (+0.0)56°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi92 min E 16 G 21 67°F 74°F1019.7 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi52 min 1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi55 minENE 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F54°F68%1020.3 hPa

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Last 24hrE8
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2 days agoS3SW7S6S6S5S7S3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S5SW4SW5SW5SW7SW5SW7
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:02 PM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM EDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.520.6-0.4-0.7-0.112.6455.34.83.72.30.8-0.3-0.7-0.30.92.54.15.35.95.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:05 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 PM EDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.41-0-0.5-0.10.92.33.54.44.84.63.82.61.30.1-0.5-0.40.62.13.54.75.35.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.