Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:32PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:54 PM EST (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:17PMMoonset 7:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 646 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Showers through the day.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 646 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Very cold air will build into the area through tonight. The next cold front is expected by Thursday with small craft advisory conditions likely. High pressure then builds in through the late week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211700
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1200 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Very cold air will build into the area today. A gradual
recovery in temperatures will begin on Tuesday. The next cold
front is expected Wednesday night or Thursday. High pressure
will build through the late week period.

Near term through tonight
As of 0930 am Monday... Clear and cold across the carolinas this
morning as northwest winds, gusting between 20 and 30 mph,
continue to advect cold and dry air into the forecast area.

Temperatures were in the mid 20s for many locations, with the
warm spot for georgetown in the lower 30s.

Afternoon high temperatures remain on track to be about 15 to 20
degrees below normal in the mid to upper 30s, with some
locations reaching the lower 40s near the coast. Winds are still
expected to shift to the northeast tonight and decrease. No
precipitation expected as high pressure returns.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Slow moving high pressure passing by to our
north through the period while maintaining a ridge axis into the
carolinas. The ridge axis will inhibit mixing (only a 1kft bl
according to WRF fcst soundings) and thus hamper the ongoing warm
advection aloft from being realized at the surface. This will change
somewhat dramatically by Wednesday as the high shifts offshore and
the warm air freely mixes down the surface yielding an afternoon
some 20 degrees warmer than Tuesday despite an increasing trend in
cloud cover. Some guidance spitting out low QPF on Wednesday but
with 30c dewpoint depressions depicted above 10kft in forecast
soundings this seems suspect. Have trimmed pops slightly as a
result. This is due to rapidly change Wednesday night. Low level
jetting, mid level pva, and upper divergence all spread across the
area from the west bringing in what may end up being some healthy
rainfall.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 am Monday... A rainy start on Thursday as cold front moves
through rather quickly due to fast low amplitude flow aloft. Chilly
high pressure will then build for the remainder of the period.

Temperatures will be below climatology but the airmass will not be
one of arctic influence like the current one.

Aviation 17z Monday through Friday
As of 18z... .Vfr with clear skies will prevail throughout forecast
period as surface high pressure continues to build in from the west.

Northerly winds around 10-15 kts, with gusts in the upper teens to
low 20s, will weaken overnight to around 5kts and become northeasterly.

No fog forecasted due to very dry conditions.

Extended outlook...VFR and very cold into Tuesday morning. MVFR
conditions possible with a frontal passage on Wednesday into
Thursday.VFR Friday and Saturday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Sunday... Small craft advisory continues through early
this aftn as N NW cold air advection flow leads to 20-25 kt winds
with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will subside later today into tonight,
and be mainly ~15 kt overnight out of the ne. 3-5 ft seas this
morning decrease to 2-4 ft later this aftn.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ... As of 300 am
Monday... NE winds Tuesday the result of high pressure moving
eastward and passing by to our north. This will lead to veering of
the flow Tuesday night to easterly and then southerly by Wednesday
at which time wind speed will pick up due to the approach of a cold
front. A further increase towards the end of the period will push
wind and seas both into advisory realm.

Long term Thursday through Friday ... As of 3 am Monday... Strong
winds and large seas still calling for an advisory early Thursday
but it looks like both should really abate fairly quickly following
the abrupt veer that the FROPA brings. High pressure will still be
building in from the west on Friday behind the front keeping winds
out of the northwest as seas continue to settle.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Mck
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi24 min 54°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi46 min NNW 19 G 29 33°F 54°F1029 hPa
WLON7 24 mi36 min 37°F 47°F1029 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi54 min 56°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi46 min N 19 G 27 32°F 57°F1028.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi36 min NNW 16 G 24 1029 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi34 min NNW 19 G 25 35°F 64°F1029.2 hPa20°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi46 min N 19 G 31 33°F 58°F1027.9 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi74 minNNW 16 G 2410.00 miFair32°F-1°F24%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE4E6E6SE4E4CalmS5S4S5S4S7
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2 days agoW3SW5SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE3CalmE5E5E7E8

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 12:49 AM EST     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EST     6.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:31 PM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:49 PM EST     5.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.1-0.412.74.25.4665.13.61.90.4-0.6-0.60.21.52.944.854.53.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:10 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:30 AM EST     5.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM EST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:55 PM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1-0.70.52.13.64.85.55.54.83.62.10.7-0.3-0.6-0.11.12.43.54.34.64.23.21.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.