Saturday, January20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:31PM Saturday January 20, 2018 9:31 PM EST (02:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 830 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 830 Pm Est Sat Jan 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will migrate slowly across the area and then offshore on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the west Monday night, and then move offshore during Tuesday and may bring a brief period of small craft advisory conditions. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
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location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210200
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
900 pm est Sat jan 20 2018

Synopsis
Mild temperatures for january, will prevail through early next
week. A cold front will bring showers Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday and
Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west. The high
moves offshore Friday and Saturday with temperatures warming
above normal.

Near term through Sunday
As of 900 pm Saturday... Considerable high cloudiness beginning
to overspread the fa from S to N this eve. These clouds along
with a light SW wind should keep most areas from dropping below
freezing. Dewpoints have also increased considerably from
earlier in the day. We are forecasting low temps mainly in the
mid and upper 30s, although a few temps in the lower 30s are
expected, mainly across NW zones.

A small eastward jog of surface high pressure through the
period; the center of which GOES from ga to overhead. Looking at
850mb progs, there does appear to be a weak sense of cool air
advection. Forecast soundings show Sun should have deeper
mixing. The end result is a milder afternoon with highs in the
mid 60s area-wide.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Concern this period involves a cold
front which will likely be along or just west of the coast
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this feature, Sunday night through
Monday evening, large high pressure offshore and gradually
amplifying ridge aloft will drive WAA in a strengthening warm
sector ahead of the aforementioned front. 850mb temps of around
7c early climb towards 10c late, and with abundant dry air
persisting in the column at least through Monday eve, sunshine
will be prevalent. This suggests temps climbing to well above
normal, reaching near 70 Monday after lows Monday morning only
around 40.

The pattern begins to shift Monday night as a deep upper low cuts
through the great lakes. Ahead of this feature, diffluence will
increase and moist advection permeates into the carolinas. Although
the guidance differs slightly in timing, with the NAM being the
fastest, the overall evolution is similar from each model. Although
much of the forcing ejects NE away from the cwa, LLJ rises to above
50 kts with MLCAPE climbing to 200-400 j kg, setting up the
potential for an hslc event into Tuesday morning. However, very dry
air above 600mb appears to be limiting, and sherbe values peak below
1 across the cwa. SPC does not even mention general thunder
locally, but gusty winds and a brief period of heavy rainfall is
possible late Monday night. Overall however, do not expect a
high QPF or significant weather event with the fropa.

Cold advection lags well behind this boundary, in fact, it doesn't
occur until a secondary boundary crosses on Tuesday, so mins Monday
night will be closer to typical seasonal highs, low 50s most
locations.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Cold front in the area as the period
begins is quickly lifted east-northeast as 5h trough, associated
with great lakes 5h low, moves northeast. The bulk of the
dynamics and moisture with this system end up passing to the
north, limiting local precip chances the first half of tue. This
setup also helps keep the bulk of the cold air north of the
area. Secondary cold front arrives Wednesday night, but even
this feature lacks strong cold advection. Mid-level pattern in
the wake of the exiting trough is relatively flat into the end
of the week, helping quickly move surface high west to east.

Late next week 5h ridge starts to build over the southeast as 5h
trough digs over the western conus. This will lead to an
increase in deep moisture return very late in the period, but at
this point confidence is very low and not quite ready to carry
any mentionable pop. Temperatures above climo early in the
period will dip near climo midweek following the passage of the
secondary cold front. Temperatures bounce back above climo fri
and Sat as surface high off the coast and deep southerly flow
begins a period of warm advection.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z...VFR this 24 hour TAF valid period. High pressure
will move over the terminals by morning. Tafs indicate variable
winds AOB 5 kt the entire period. Wind directions most likely
will be southeast Mon afternoon especially southern terminals.

There will be an increase in mid and upper level moisture by
morning. Densest clouds CIGS should remain south.

Extended outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR shra late Mon early tue.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 900 pm Saturday... High pressure will build directly
overhead through sun. This should result in SW winds of 10 to
15 kt veering to NW and N through Sun morning before becoming
light and variable in direction. A developing seabreeze will
remain quite weak Sun afternoon. Seas of around 2 ft tonight
will subside to 1 ft during sun.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Placid marine conditions Sunday night
will ramp up quickly during Monday as a cold front approaches
from the west, and an SCA is likely before the short term ends.

High pressure over the area will push offshore Monday, leaving a
weak gradient and light southerly winds becoming SE and climbing to
around 10 kts by late Monday. During this period, significant seas
will be just 1-2 ft. Late Monday and especially Monday night, the
gradient tightens and southerly winds increase rapidly to 20-25 kts,
driving seas to 4-6 ft with a short southerly wind wave predominant
in the spectrum. This will create short and steep waves, and likely
necessitate an SCA that will persist into Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Cold front in the area at the start of
the period will move east across the waters Tue morning. Winds
will veer from south-southwest to west and then northwest later
tue and Tue night. Although cold advection is lacking, the
gradient will keep speeds in the 15 to 20 kt range into wed
morning before starting to relax and allowing speeds to drop.

Reinforcing shot of cooler air arrives late Wed night, as the
surface high west of the area shifts east. Northerly flow
increases as cool surge arrives and winds become northeast. Seas
at the start of the period will probably warrant a continuation
of SCA into the first half of tue, but offshore flow is likely
to knock seas under 6 ft by midday. Seas continue a steady
diminishing trend Tue night and wed, dropping to 2 ft on wed
before starting to build late Wed night as the cold surge
arrives. Cold surge will push seas to a solid 3 ft with
potential for isolated 4 ft as the period ends.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjd mbb
short term... Jdw
long term... Iii
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi62 min 47°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 21 mi107 min W 2.9 42°F 1022 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 22 mi84 min W 7.8 G 12 47°F 1023.4 hPa
WLON7 24 mi44 min 45°F 45°F1023.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi33 min 46°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 25 mi84 min WSW 9.7 G 12 49°F 46°F1022.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 11 48°F 49°F1023.5 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi32 min WSW 12 G 14 58°F 57°F1023.2 hPa (+0.7)46°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi84 min WSW 21 G 27 56°F 58°F1023.2 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi44 min 1026.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi57 minW 610.00 miFair46°F39°F77%1024 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3W4SW4W4W3CalmSW3W4W3CalmSW4SW6SW7SW9SW10SW9
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1 day agoW4W4W3CalmW3CalmW4CalmW4CalmCalmW6SW8SW6SW10W9SW9SW8SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoNW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
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Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:05 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EST     4.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:27 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:37 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:24 PM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.10.3-00.212.23.44.34.74.63.931.80.80.100.61.62.73.5443.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:26 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:56 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:35 PM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.10.4-00.212.23.34.14.54.43.93.1210.30.10.51.52.63.53.943.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.