Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Caswell Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:39PMMoonset 9:26AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 109 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 109 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift farther offshore today as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will move across the waters tonight and strong high pressure will build in from the north causing strong winds and rough seas Tuesday through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Caswell Beach, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.9, -78.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 250518
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
118 am edt Mon mar 25 2019

Synopsis
Temperatures and humidity should increase Monday as high pressure
moves off the carolina coast. Rain chances will increase Monday
and Monday night as a cold front moves across the area. Breezy
and cooler weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure builds in from the north. The high will move offshore
Friday with a warming trend expected for the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 pm Sunday... Forecast updated to remove most mention
of fog. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out over southern areas, but
for the most part not expecting fog as guidance has backed off
and some light wind continues.

Previous discussion... As of 315 pm Sunday... The surface ridge
axis is along the coast and it will continue to shift offshore
allowing for weak southerly flow across the forecast area. Clear
skies at the moment will gradually give way to increasing
clouds later tonight and more-so during Monday. Some patchy fog
is possible overnight, and lows will range a category or two
above normal. Rain chances will increase during Monday with
categorical pops by Monday evening as low-level convergence
associated with a cold front increases. Although temperatures
will warm nicely into the 70s during Monday ahead of the front
the amount of surface based instability will be limited. Still
enough forcing expected to warrant mention of tstms Monday
afternoon into Monday night.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Deepening low pressure will move away from
the north carolina coast Tuesday morning. The cold front should
already be well south of our area at sunrise, and north winds
will advect gradually drier in throughout the day. Low clouds
and perhaps a little lingering light rain generated within the
sloping frontal inversion should last through at least the
morning hours before clearing out from north to south during the
afternoon. Forecast pops Tuesday morning range from 20-40
percent.

1034 mb high pressure will build across the northeast and mid-
atlantic states Tuesday night into Wednesday. A chilly airmass
with 850 mb temps hovering near zero c will push south into the
carolinas. Breezy north-northeast winds should gust over 25 mph
both days. Breezy winds should also continue through Tuesday
night, but winds should diminish Wednesday night as the high
begins to edge closer to the carolinas. I am concerned about
the possibility of frost or even a light freeze Wednesday night
and i've lowered forecast lows into the mid 30s for most areas.

High temperatures both days (even with lots of sunshine on
Wednesday) should only reach the upper 50s. This is a little
below MOS consensus on Wednesday based on ECMWF and multi-model
ensemble means.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Dry weather should persist through the
remainder of the week as deep high pressure moves across the
east coast and offshore. Southerly winds will begin to show up
Friday and especially Saturday as the high moves offshore.

An upper trough digging into the southern and central rockies
Saturday should eject eastward into the plains states next
Sunday. The 12z ECMWF is significantly faster than the 12z runs
of the GFS or canadian with this feature, and this creates some
uncertainty about how quickly a moisture-laden southerly flow
ahead of this system might reach the area. I've added small pops
(20-30 percent) for Sunday in case the faster ECMWF is correct,
otherwise it looks like typically dry spring weather will
continue through Sunday. Regardless, temperatures late this week
should warm significantly with highs reaching well into the 70s
away from the ocean beginning Friday.

Aviation 05z Monday through Friday
As of 06z... Expect mainlyVFR through the TAF period as high
pressure continues to drift to the east. Increased moisture
coming in from the south will help to develop mid-level clouds
through the day with a few showers possible late.

Extended outlook... Tonight, a cold front will move over the
area creating likely MVFR conditions into early Tuesday. Brief
ifr possible as well.VFR Tuesday evening through the rest of
the week.

Marine
As of 315 pm Sunday... High pressure will be center far offshore
tonight which will help to maintain southerly flow across the
coastal waters. The pressure gradient will tighten during Monday
ahead of a cold front helping to produce building higher frequency
waves. The front is expected to move off the coast late Monday night
allowing the wind to veer to a stronger northerly direction by day
break. While we could see marginal small craft conditions Monday
confidence is too low at this time to hoist the flags. Small craft
advisory conditions look likely by day break Tuesday.

An extended period of strong northeast winds should develop on
Tuesday as the cold front slides south and low pressure deepens
off the north carolina coast. 1034 mb canadian high pressure
will build across the northeast and then the mid-atlantic states
Tuesday night and Wednesday, maintaining a strong pressure
gradient across the area. It appears we are in for at least 36
hours of 25-30 kt northeast winds with gusts to gale force
across the coastal waters. Seas are currently forecast to build
to as large as 8-9 feet 20 miles southeast of CAPE fear, with
4-7 foot seas expected across the remainder of our coastal
waters.

Winds and seas should begin to subside Wednesday night as the
high gets closer to the area, then moves almost overhead
late Thursday night. If you're itching to get offshore it
appears Friday will see the lightest wind speeds of the week as
the center of the high should be located just east of the area.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Mas srp
short term... Tra
long term... Tra
aviation... Mas
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 13 mi31 min 60°F2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 21 mi83 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 61°F1022.5 hPa
WLON7 24 mi37 min 58°F 57°F1022.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 25 mi31 min 57°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi83 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 59°F 58°F1022.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi37 min 59°F 57°F1022.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi31 min SSW 16 G 18 68°F 68°F1023.1 hPa (-0.7)53°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi83 min WSW 16 G 21 67°F 66°F1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
SW2
SW6
W7
W7
W6
W5
W4
S1
NE1
NE2
SE2
S3
S4
SE7
SE9
SE13
SE12
S12
S10
S7
S6
S8
S10
SW8
1 day
ago
N12
N9
NW4
N6
N7
G10
N6
NW3
NW4
NW7
NW17
G21
NW14
G18
NW12
NW14
G22
NW9
G17
NW5
G15
NW7
G10
S13
S15
S12
SW5
N1
NE1
NW2
--
2 days
ago
W11
G15
W9
G13
W8
G14
W9
G16
W13
G18
W12
G17
W14
G19
W12
G18
W13
G18
W15
G22
W13
G18
W17
G23
W13
G22
W10
G16
W10
G16
SW7
G10
SW6
SW7
W7
NW9
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC2 mi51 minS 410.00 miFair62°F53°F73%1023 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----S3S4SW5SW4SW5SW6S6S6S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW5
1 day agoN8CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN5N9
G18
N11
G16
NW11N8N8W10
G16
NW6SW9SW6SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW7W6W10W9W6NW7NW10
G15
NW12
G20
NW16
G24
NW13
G16
W9
G17
W13
G19
SW19
G24
SW14
G23
SW16
G22
SW13
G22
SW12
G15
W6W3CalmW4W5W5N7

Tide / Current Tables for Yaupon Beach, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Yaupon Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.54.83.62.10.8000.81.833.94.54.74.33.32.110.20.10.71.72.93.94.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:59 PM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
5.14.53.52.310.2-0.10.41.42.53.44.14.343.22.21.10.300.41.32.43.44.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.