Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:40PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:48 AM EST (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 11:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 532 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 kt late this morning and early afternoon, then becoming W late. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
AMZ200 532 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the west will build over the waters through Thursday. A dry cold front will move across the waters later tonight, increasing northwest flow early Thursday. The high will move overhead on Friday and shift offshore for the weekend. A cold front will bring showers to the area on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241109
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
609 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
Seasonably cool, and dry weather will prevail the next several
days, before a warming trend into the weekend. Sunday may see
a few rain-showers, as a cold front crosses the coast. Canadian
high pressure building in early next week, will bring drier and
cooler air to the area.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... High pressure to the west will gradually
build over the region through the period. What cold advection
was behind the exiting cold front will be ending this morning
with neutral advection and abundant sunshine resulting in highs
near to slightly above climo. Broad 5h trough will be enhanced
by modest shortwave rounding the base of the longwave trough.

Shortwave passes well north of the area, moving from the ky oh
valleys into the mid- atlantic today into tonight. The shortwave
will help drag a dry cold front across the region overnight.

Front is moisture starved by deep west-northwest flow and only
clouds with it are likely to be patches of cirrus. Gradient does
tighten up a bit as weak cold advection kicks in. Light to calm
winds in the evening will increase a bit and become northwest
for the end of the period. Mixing will prevent any significant
radiational cooling component however, cold advection overnight
will drop lows into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Exceptionally dry column this period with
precipitable waters, a few ticks either side of a quarter inch.

It is not until late in the period Friday evening, that we see
low-level moisture advection on SE trajectories, in amplifying
return wind-flow, as high pressure slips off the mid-atlantic
coast. Resurgence of high pressure from the west at the start of
the period, will foster seasonably cool conditions both days,
with the onset of a warming trend Friday afternoon, bringing us
slightly above normal for late january. The breeziest portion
of this period, Thursday morning in n-nnw wind, gusts to 25 mph
at the coast after daybreak. This will bring wind-chills early
on Thursday, deep into the 20s area-wide. On a warmer note,
plenty sunshine minutes appear on tap this period. The only
significant clouds slated, would be Friday night, where batches
of strato-cumulus off the ocean may be arriving.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm Tuesday... Upper level ridging across the eastern
u.S. Saturday will give way to an approaching upper trough
early next week. There are amplitude differences with the trough
between the GFS and the ecwmf canadian navgem that strongly
influence our sensible weather for Sunday and Sunday night.

Surface high pressure should move off the coast Saturday. This
will allow for a modified marine airmass to spread back onshore
with rising temperatures and dewpoints for Saturday. The
aforementioned upper trough should dig into the eastern u.S.

Sunday and Monday. The GFS is anomalously flatter with this
feature compared to virtually all other models, and the surface
low it develops remains weak and trickles eastward across
florida. Other models show a stronger surface low moving
northeastward out of the gulf and through the piedmont foothills
region on Sunday, drawing in a stronger southerly flow across
the coastal carolinas. Following the more amplified models,
we're forecasting pops increasing to 60-70 percent on Sunday.

Forecast soundings from the ECMWF show modest surface-based
instability possible, and we'll maintain the mention of isolated
thunderstorms.

All models show clearing developing Monday as a glancing shot of
canadian air spreads into the carolinas from the north. Low
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights could drop to freezing.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z...VFR. A dry cold front will cross the terminals this
evening. No significant clouds weather with the front. High
pressure will then build in through the remainder of the 24 hour
taf period. Tafs depict average wind directions. At kcre kmyr a
tempo group shows the ssw wind potential at the coast this
afternoon.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Flow will remain offshore (west-
northwest) through the period as high pressure builds in from
the west. Gradient will steadily decrease today with northwest
winds dropping under 10 kt by midday. Winds briefly back to
west-southwest this evening before passage of dry cold front
returns winds to west- northwest and increases speeds to 15 to
20 kt after midnight. Offshore flow has helped drop seas under 6
ft this morning thus the SCA expired at 3 am. Seas will
continue gradually decreasing as winds remain offshore and
weaken through the day. Seas drop as low as 1 to 2 ft late in
the day but the arrival of the next round of cold advection
overnight will build seas back to 2 to 4 ft by the end of the
period.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... N winds a bit frisky at the onset of
this marine period early Thursday, with N wind gusts to 20 kt,
as high pressure barges in from the west. As a result, wind-
seas will build to 4 ft offshore Thursday morning, bumpy yes,
but no advisories or caution headlines are anticipated, although
do know, dominant wave periods will run between 4-5 seconds.

The atmosphere will remain dry this period, so no threat of
tstms. Late Friday night in return, and increasing SE wind, a
few showers offshore are possible. On Friday, a lovely marine
day, longer period swell may become the dominant wave energy,
as winds become light during the day, veering to e-se in the
eve.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm Tuesday... Low pressure should develop in the
northern gulf of mexico on Saturday, but where the low moves
Saturday night and Sunday is still quite uncertain. The gfs
model has been very consistent for the last couple of days
showing the low moving eastward across florida with relatively
little impact on our wind speed or direction locally. The bulk
of the other global weather models show the low moving
northeastward through the piedmont and appalachian foothills
Sunday and Sunday night. The difference we'd see in wind weather
conditions between these two possibilities is enormous.

Following the consensus solution shown by the ecwmf, canadian,
and navgem models brings increasing southerly winds across the
carolina coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night. The long
southerly fetch is expected to bring small craft advisory
conditions due to seas, and probably due to winds too. Showers
will become likely with maybe a few thunderstorms embedded
Sunday night. The cold front associated with the low may reach
the area late Sunday night with winds shifting westerly before
sunrise Monday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Iii
short term... Mjc
long term... Tra
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi40 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 1019.7 hPa
41108 23 mi48 min 51°F4 ft
WLON7 32 mi48 min 38°F 46°F1019.2 hPa (+2.2)
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi48 min 1023.2 hPa (+2.1)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 33 mi63 min W 1 38°F 1019 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 7 46°F 50°F1019.4 hPa (+2.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi49 min 47°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi40 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 47°F1018.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi38 min NNW 14 G 18 54°F 59°F1019.3 hPa39°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair37°F35°F93%1019.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi55 minW 310.00 miFair36°F34°F93%1019.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmE3E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5S7S8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Wed -- 12:44 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:15 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:32 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
44.13.83.12.21.30.70.40.61.222.93.743.93.32.41.40.50-00.51.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:02 AM EST     4.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:02 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     4.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:26 PM EST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.23.42.10.90.1-0.200.71.72.83.74.24.13.42.31.10.1-0.5-0.40.11.12.33.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.