Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Isle Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:56PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 12:41 PM EDT (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 5:09AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1154 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers. Isolated tstms.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated showers.
Wed..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft... Then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1154 Am Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move ne of the area today and tonight. High pressure will gradually return by mid-week behind this system. This high will strengthen offshore and hold into the weekend bringing early summer-like conditions.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Isle Beach, NC
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location: 33.91, -78.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251537
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1137 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
A slow moving storm system nearly overhead this morning, will
lift northeast away from the area this afternoon through mid
week. Look for slowly improving conditions, with a warming and
drying trend. A weak cold front will dissipate as it moves
across the area Thursday night, followed by high pressure aloft
and early summer-like conditions Friday into the weekend. A few
locations away from the coast, may break the 90 degree mark this
weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 1136 am Tuesday... Wrap around moisture associated with a
slowly departing upper low is beginning to make inroads and
bringing an uptick in mid-level moisture into the area. Local
forecast soundings show a bit of convective inhibition between
4-9 kft that will gradually be overcome as surface heating
begins to increase and mid-level moisture bleeds in. As a result
we may see an increase in convection in the middle to late
afternoon and showers already are popping across the bladen
lakes area situated along the eastern edge of the moisture plume
diving to the sse presently. As a result no significant changes
are being made to the afternoon forecast except to fine tune
pop distribution and tweak t/td. A slight chance of a tstm
remains intact and there remains a non-zero chance of small hail
with any strong shower or storm given the cold temperatures
aloft, as the -20c isotherm is not much higher than 20 kft. Low
level wind speeds do not support much of a wind threat with
convection but gusty winds of 30-40 mph is not out of the
question with any TSTM that does develop due to downdraft cape
values.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
As of 330 am Tuesday... At the start of this period, the nemesis
closed low aloft, off the DELMARVA coast, will continue to fill
in as it tracks to the northeast, further away from the
forecast area. It's corresponding, captured sfc low, will also
be weakening during this time-frame. Overall, in their wake,
the ilm CWA will commence an extended "drying out out" period.

Weak s/w ridging aloft will affect the fa thru Thu night. It's
upper ridge axis will lie overhead Thu morning, moving off the
carolina coasts by Fri daybreak. A rather expansive upper trof
will have taken shape across the central u.S. By Fri morning.

At the sfc, weak cyclonic NW flow will dominate the fa early
wed until the upper/sfc lows move far enough away. By late wed
thru daybreak fri, sfc ridging from bermuda high pressure
centered well east of florida, will extend wnw and onshore
in the vicinity or south of CAPE romain, sc. Enough moisture in
the low levels will be avbl for diurnally driven CU fields each
day. Enough subsidence aloft will prevent the CU from growing
too much in the vertical, resulting in no pops being advertised
wed thru sunset thu. A fading cold front will push across the fa
from the west late Thu night. The front will be displaced a good
distance from it's parent low as it traverses the ilm cwa. Other
than frontal dynamics, not much forcing is left for pcpn
development. As a result, will include low chance pops for
showers and possibly an isolated tstorm Thu night if enough
instability becomes avbl. A low level SW jet will develop during
thu night into early fri. This will keep winds active enough at
the sfc to prevent widespread fog but also keep min temps on the
high side.

Summer time temperatures will be back across the fa with
widespread MAX temps in the low to mid 80s Wed and mid to upper
80s thu. Min temps will follow the general trend and run in the
low 60s Wed night and the mid to upper 60s Thu night. This a
consensus amongst the avbl model MOS guidance. This fcst has
temps that will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal by the end of
this period. Normal lows/highs are in the low to mid 50s and the
upper 70s respectively.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
As of 3 pm Monday... Medium range guidance is fairly consistent
with regards to the extended forecast. Longwave troughing will
be in place out west with a cutoff low eventually developing
with a southwest flow and strong ridging developing just off the
southeast coast. At the surface it will be primarily high
pressure anchored offshore. A weak front will fade away as it
moves across the fa early Fri leaving a continued dry forecast.

Temperature trends remain mostly intact well above normal
throughout the period but moreso first half as heights fall
slightly late in the period.

Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 12z... Lifr/ifr conditions thruout the area from either
ceilings and/or vsby. Improving to ifr/MVFR conditions from
midday thru this aftn. And further improving to MVFR/vfr
conditions late this aftn thru tonight.

The complex low pressure pressure system, sfc and aloft, lies
nearly overhead this morning. The heaviest rainfall is now north
of the area. As the upper low and associated sfc low lifts ne,
away from the fa this afternoon and night, improving conditions
across all sensible weather parameters will occur. Will still
have to contend with light to moderate showers, isolated
thunder, on the backside of this complex area of low pressure.

But, it will not be nearly as heavy or widespread like what
occurred during Monday.

The sfc pg will remain semi-loose underneath the closed low
today and semi-tightened as the complex low lifts northeast of
the area tonight. Wind directions will become W to NW thruout.

Wind speeds will run 10-15 kt during today and drop back to 5 kt
or less during this evening and overnight.

Extended outlook... Possible MVFR/ifr from fog or low stratus
wed morning.VFR expected from Wednesday through Saturday.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 822 am Tuesday... The SCA for sc has expired as seas have
fallen below 6 feet for the majority of the 0-20 nm waters
there, no other changes.

As of 330 am Tuesday... Low pressure just off the grand strand
will spin slowly off to the NE today. As this surface feature
pulls away, winds will become predominantly s/sw and increase
back towards 15-20 kts before slowly veering to the west, and
then NW tonight, while easing to around 10 kts. Seas remain high
this morning thanks to a variety of wave groups, and the sca
has been extended for the nc waters through late this aftn,
while expiring in the next few hours across the sc waters. Seas
recently at 41013 were still near 9 ft, and 7 ft at 41004.

Expect these to gradually ease through today, becoming a more
uniform 3-5 ft this evening, and 2-4 ft tonight, as both the se
swell and SW wind wave begin to decay in amplitude.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...

as of 330 am Tuesday... Improving seas and winds will continue
from where the near term left off as the last affects from the
departing upper and sfc lows occur early Wed with diminishing nw
flow and a transition to light sse to ssw flow by late Wed and
continuing thru Thu night. This a result of sfc ridging, from
bermuda high pressure located well offshore and east of florida,
extending wnw and onshore in the vicinity of CAPE romain by and
thru thu. Wind speeds around 10 kt wed, with 10 to 15 kt near
shore Wed aftn/evening due to a weak sea breeze. Wind speeds thu
will run 10 to 15 kt, except 10-20 kt near shore thu
aftn/evening due to a moderate sea breeze. The ese ground swell
at 8 to 9 second periods, will dominate the seas spectrum wed
and for much of thu. A low level SW jet Thu night will keep
winds active thru the night resulting in 3 to 5 second period
wind waves becoming more dominate.

Long term /Friday through Saturday/...

as of 3 pm Monday... Essentially a summertime pattern for the
coastal waters as ridging from bermuda high pressure affects
the area waters thruout this time frame. South to southeast
winds of 10-15 knots will prevail Friday through Saturday.

Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz250-
252.

Near term... Mjc
short term... Dch
long term... mbb
aviation... Dch/shk
marine... Dch/jdw/mbb/8


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 7 mi33 min WNW 7.8 G 12 62°F 69°F1004.4 hPa
SSBN7 7 mi71 min 3 ft
41108 23 mi54 min 70°F5 ft
WLON7 32 mi41 min 69°F 71°F1002.9 hPa (+0.0)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 33 mi56 min WSW 4.1 70°F 1004 hPa62°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 33 mi41 min 1003.8 hPa (+0.5)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi41 min S 8 G 11 69°F 71°F1002.2 hPa (+0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 39 mi42 min 69°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi33 min SW 12 G 16 67°F 69°F1003.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi31 min W 18 G 23 66°F 74°F1004.4 hPa60°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi41 minWSW 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F60°F73%1004.1 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC19 mi48 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast64°F59°F84%1004.5 hPa

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Last 24hrE3CalmSE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Tue -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:51 AM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:13 PM EDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.1-0.5-0.10.92.43.94.95.24.73.72.30.9-0.2-0.8-0.50.62.23.95.35.85.64.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:50 AM EDT     -1.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     -1.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:30 PM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.1-1.4-0.90.31.93.54.75.34.93.720.3-1-1.5-1.2-0.11.53.34.95.85.84.93.21.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.