Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 340 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Isolated showers and tstms this evening, then isolated showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..S winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 340 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will ridge westward across the local waters through the middle of the week. A cold front will move into the area from the north on Thursday and linger across the region Friday as is slowly weakens.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201948
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
348 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected much of
the upcoming week, as humid air of tropical origin remains
across the region. Rain chances will increase late Wednesday
into Thursday as a cold front drops into the carolinas. High
pressure to the north may bring a brief drying trend Friday. A
return to a tropical airmass with renewed shower chances will
occur next weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 3 pm Sunday... Scattered convection along the coast will shift
inland for the late afternoon and early evening period. Bulk of this
activity is being driven by diurnal instability and will start to
wane during the evening hours. Flooding will be a concern while
convection is present with storms that do develop being efficient at
producing heavy rainfall and having storm motions under 10 mph. Lows
overnight will once again end up above climo, but likely a degree or
two cooler than the last few nights. Boundary layer winds overnight
should be sufficient to prevent widespread visibility restricting
fog, but patchy fog is possible.

Bermuda high and 5h western atlantic ridge will extend westward into
mon as mid-level low trough over the eastern gulf of mexico shifts
slightly farther west. This helps move the tropical moisture tap
that has been over the area for the last few days farther inland. It
will also allow for some mid-level dry air intrusion. This should
lead to lowering precip chances overnight and mon. Precipitable
water drops under 1.5 inches early Mon afternoon and by the end of
the period will be under 1 inch for many areas. Although clouds will
linger in the area do expect to see more breaks of sunshine, pushing
temperatures above climo in most areas. Despite heating do not think
there will be a lot in the way of showers and thunderstorms. Mid-
level lapse rates are marginal at best and ml CAPE is forecast to be
under 1000 j kg. Couple this with the mid-level dry air and precip
chances will be limited. Sea breeze should develop which will
provide some lift and do expect to see some showers along it. Storm
motions will again be under 10 kt, but storms should produce less
rainfall.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... Mid level ridging will be in place
initially and keep conditions mostly dry for Monday night into a
good part of the day Tuesday. Some significant moisture will
return later in the day Tuesday and with some modest height
falls showers and thunderstorms, at least a decent coverage,
come back into play. Temperatures will be a little cooler
Tuesday vs Monday via more cloud cover and convection with highs
mainly in the lower 80s. Overnight lows remain on the mild side
struggling to drop below 70.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... More of the same Wednesday as bermuda high
pressure offshore persist producing warm and humid conditions with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the carolinas. A brief
break in the pattern is forecast late Wed into early Fri as a mid-
level trough digs into new england driving a surface cold front into
the area. Guidance is now insistent that this feature will stall
overhead Thursday, which seems likely based off the continued
southerly flow impeding its southern progress. This front in the
vicinity will serve as a focus for convection Thursday, which
combined with pwats near 2 inches will likely lead to widespread
showers with isolated tstms. On Friday this front will
waver dissipate with another round of convection likely, although
coverage should be less than Wed or thu.

Thereafter, forecast becomes much more uncertain as a wave of low
pressure develops in the tropics. Most extended guidance develops
this low, but then tracks it slowly with highly variable solutions.

At this point it is far too early to mention any tropical
development, but it is likely that tropical moisture pooling near
cuba will again lift north into the carolinas. This creates what at
this point is almost a broken record forecast - increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances with heavy rain possible next weekend. Of
course this will need to be monitored closely as next weekend is the
memorial day weekend and unofficial start to summer.

Temps through the extended will feature highs around to slightly
above climo, and lows well above normal as diurnal ranges are
limited by clouds cover and humidity.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
As of 18z... Mainly light showers are expected this afternoon.

Moisture is not near as deep as yesterday, so these showers will
press inland through the afternoon. A rumble is not out of the
question, but they will be quite isolated. Ceilings will be
predominately MVFR early, goingVFR by late afternoon. Tonight, ifr
conditions will return. Fog will probably be light, with ifr
ceilings predominately. Monday, the stratus will slowly lift to MVFR
by mid morning, with only isolated showers.

Extended outlook... Decent chances for rain through Thursday with
intermittent MVFR conditions.VFR Friday.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... Bermuda high will maintain southwest flow
over the waters through the period. Speeds will be in the 10 to
15 kt range, but near shore directions will back to south or
southeast on Mon as the sea breeze develops. Seas running 3 to 5
ft this afternoon fall to 2 to 4 ft overnight and 2 to 3 ft on
mon, mainly made up of decreasing southeast swell.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Bermuda high pressure will be in charge
of conditions across the coastal waters through the short term
period. Winds will be primarily from the south in a range of
10-15 knots. Early on speeds will lean toward the lower end of
the range increasing a bit overnight Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Really no surprises with the wave spectrum with overall
2-4 feet.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Sw winds of 10-15 kts persist Wednesday as
bermuda ridging remains entrenched. A cold front will drop into the
region late Wednesday night and Thursday, briefly turning winds to
the W NW before the gradient eases considerably as the front wavers
and then dissipates across the area into Friday. This brings a
period of light and variable winds much of Thursday before easterly
winds develop Friday, becoming south late at 5-10 kts. 3-4 ft seas
will be common Wednesday thanks to a combination of a SE swell and
sw wind wave, but these will deamplify as the swell weakens and
winds ease Thursday. Wave heights will fall to around 2 ft Thursday,
and then remain there through the end of the week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdw
near term... Iii
short term... Shk
long term... Jdw
aviation... Iii
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 22 mi50 min 79°F 76°F1019.9 hPa (-1.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi50 min 71°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi50 min S 16 G 17 74°F 72°F1020.3 hPa (-1.0)
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi42 min SW 14 G 21 75°F 76°F1020.3 hPa
SSBN7 25 mi110 min 2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi42 min SW 12 G 18 74°F 74°F1020.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi40 min S 14 G 18 75°F 75°F1020.8 hPa71°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi70 minSW 610.00 miFair77°F72°F84%1021 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S5S7S7S8S5S5S6S6S5SW9SW7
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1 day agoSE8SE7SE5S5S3S4S5CalmSE4S5CalmSE4SW5SE6SE5SE7S7
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2 days agoSE6SE5SE5S6S5S7S8
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S7S9S5S5S4S3CalmS4S5S5CalmCalmSE4SE5SE5S7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
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Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:48 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:57 PM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.35.24.43.11.90.80-0.20.31.22.43.444.33.931.90.90.2-00.31.32.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:08 AM EDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:33 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.35.14.33.11.90.80.10.10.71.72.73.64.14.33.93.1210.30.10.61.72.94

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.