Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:35 AM EDT (11:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 3:31PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 319 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning, then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Then 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 319 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will persist across the waters through the week. A cold front will move closer to the region this weekend and likely stall.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171114
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
714 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
High heat and humidity will continue across the area through
Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase during
the weekend ahead of a cold front. This front will get hung up
in close proximity early next week and then dissipate, keeping
at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Thursday... The northwest flow aloft will continue today
with little in the way of boundaries or forcing initially at
the surface. There is some mid level divergence moving across
the area later this morning and afternoon which has been picked
up by the models. This should trigger a mid to late morning
start to convection which should continue through the afternoon.

With weak shear do not anticipate any significant severe threat
but with pw's near 2.20 inches some localized flooding is
possible. Convection should diminish with the loss of daytime
heating tonight.

Temperature guidance has cooled slightly with the 00 utc cycle
however still warm enough to hoist a heat advisory for most areas.

As was the case Wednesday, the 105 criteria may be just for an hour
or two and if the convection develops as expected, a plethora of
outflow boundaries may actually keep numbers below 105.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Still looks like a hot and humid day
fri with a likelihood for another heat advisory. 850 mb temps
will be 20-21 deg c. This should result in highs in the mid 90s
with lower 90s at the coast. The dewpoints will again be high,
mainly mid and upper 70s with a few 80 degree dewpoints for
portions of the coast. This will again bring the heat index
above 105 and as high as 106 to 108 degrees. High temps should
back off a category or so on Sat with more in the way of clouds
associated with showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints will still
be high and so heat index values should still climb above 100,
but few places should reach 105 degrees. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the mid and upper 70s, although if a large thunderstorm
outflow develops, lows may drop into the lower 70s for portions
of the area Sat night.

A deep trough will carve out across the eastern third of the
nation during this period. This will help drive a cold front se.

The trough should begin to lift out during sat. The seabreeze
and piedmont trough on Fri should allow for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the heating of the
day. Fri night, a strong mid-level shortwave trough will be
moving across central nc and the upstate of south carlina. This
feature will lift to the NE overnight. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to our NW should at least skirt portions of our
forecast area during the night. Sat morning, the cold front
should be on our door step. However, it does not look like the
front will be able to push through as the main driving
mechanism aloft will be departing. Another impulse will be
moving across virginia and northern portions of north carolina
sat night. This should help to keep the front in close
proximity, but mainly to our n. We expect the risk for showers
and thunderstorms will be significantly higher Sat as compared
to fri. However, it is too early to say it will be a washout.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A cold front will show little movement
into Sunday, but height rises aloft will be underway. Overall
expect a downward trend in storm coverage and a warmer afternoon.

Attention to Monday's forecast continues to increase each day
due to the solar eclipse. Unfortunately there isn't much
different in the way of thinking and even less fortunate the
news isn't great. True the front will be weakening but
convective signals in the models are still suggesting ample
moisture for considerable coverage of thunderstorms that
afternoon. The silver lining could be the rising heights aloft,
possibly capping thunderstorm formation until after the eclipse
or at least its peak. Even so all it takes is one vigorous
towering cumulus to ruin the view over a given location.

By Tuesday the front no longer appears in the models but a well
defined piedmont trough develops. Thunderstorms forming within
this boundary and moving east paired with seabreeze activity
calls for scattered pops just about area-wide. By Wednesday some
mid level troughiness starts breaking into the area in
association with a large trough forming north of the great
lakes. A continued moist boundary layer paired with energetic nw
flow likely means a continuation of the unsettled weather.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 11z... Some low stratus below 1 kft was around, but not
enough to warrant a ceiling. Any visibility restrictions due to
br should be gone by 12z and any patchy stratus will burn off
by mid morning. The seabreeze and piedmont trough will help to
initiate isolated to perhaps scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Strong heating should allow cumulus to build by
late morning and midday with convection mainly expected this
afternoon. As the seabreeze pushes inland, the risk for
thunderstorms will move inland of the coastal terminals by late
afternoon. The risk for thunderstorms will linger longer at kflo
and klbt, perhaps to 02z or so. Prevailing conditions will be
vfr, however, should a thunderstorm impact the immediate
terminal, ceiling and visibility should briefly drop to MVFR or
lower.

Tonight, low stratus is expected to develop after midnight. Will
include sct-bkn deck at or below 1 kft after 06z at all the
terminals. If ceilings do develop at or below 1 kft, it will
likely be after 09z.

Extended outlook... Flight restrictions due to showers and
thunderstorms are likely sat-sun. Convection should be less
numerous mon. Early morning low stratus and fog will be
possible, especially Sun and mon.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Very light wind fields continue across the
coastal waters this morning with buoy reports showing speeds less
than five knots. Winds will shape up gradually through Friday
morning with a decent southwest flow of 10-15 knots later tonight.

For today winds will be mostly driven by the sea breeze. Significant
seas will be around two feet at best.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... The piedmont trough and seabreeze will
be the main driver of winds on fri. An approaching cold front
fri night and Sat should get hung up N of the waters through the
end of the forecast period. SW winds will be in place through
the period. The strongest winds are expected late Fri and fri
night, on the order of 15 to 20 kt. Winds should tick down to 10
to 15 kt during Sat and to near 10 kt toward Sun morning. Seas
of 2 to 3 ft Fri will build to 3 to 4 ft Fri night and sat
perhaps subsiding about a foot during Sat night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... A front will be stalled over land
Sunday into Monday in a weakening state. This boundary will
serve a similar function to the piedmont trough normally seen
during the warm season and we should still see a fairly typical
southwesterly flow. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft for the most part,
highest offshore in the coast- parallel flow.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from noon today to 5 pm edt this afternoon for
scz017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory from noon today to 5 pm edt this afternoon for
ncz099-107>110.

Marine... None.

Near term... Shk
short term... Rjd
long term... mbb
aviation... Rjd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi65 min 83°F2 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi66 min 83°F2 ft
WLON7 22 mi47 min 77°F 83°F1016.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi87 min SSE 3.9 G 9.7 82°F 83°F1016.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi47 min SSE 7 G 7 82°F 84°F1015.5 hPa
SSBN7 25 mi155 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi87 min S 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi27 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 83°F1016.8 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi35 min S 5.8 G 7.8 83°F 84°F1016.4 hPa (+0.8)80°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi40 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F80°F99%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N4CalmSE4S5S6S5SE6E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS4CalmS4SW5SW6SW5S7S6SW5S7SW6SW7SW8NW8W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4
2 days agoSW3W4S3S4S4SE6S7S3S7S4S6S4S4CalmS5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
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Thu -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:30 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1233.74.143.32.21.20.4-0.1-0.10.51.734.14.85.14.83.82.71.60.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:57 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:13 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:38 PM EDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.82.73.54.14.34.13.32.31.30.500.21.12.33.64.65.25.34.83.92.81.70.90.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.