Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:15PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 9:37 AM EDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 603 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft this afternoon. Scattered tstms. Showers.
Tonight..SW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft...building to 6 to 9 ft after midnight. Showers and scattered tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft... Subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft... Building to 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 603 Am Edt Wed May 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Waves of low pressure will move along a stalled front and bring showers and Thunderstorms and a prolonged period of poor marine conditions through early Thursday. High pressure will build in on Friday and linger through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 241018
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
618 am edt Wed may 24 2017

Synopsis
Waves of low pressure will continue to move along a slow-moving
cold front, producing a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight. Another cold front trailing
from a deep low pressure system over the ohio valley on Thursday
will cross the area, bringing the final round of showers to the
area. High pressure will build in late Thursday into Friday
maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend. Low
pressure may affect the area early next week producing more
unsettled weather.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Tuesday... Post wave subsidence has helped dry out the
mid levels overnight, leading to a lull in rainfall. Sizable area of
dry air, evident in water vapor imagery, will work its way northeast
through the morning hours. Not only do forecast soundings show the
increasing mid level dry air but they also depict weakening of the
850 to 500 mb lapse rates, another sign of increasing subsidence.

There is a weak shortwave currently moving across ga, heading
northeast that could generate some isolated elevated convection in
the area a few hours either side of daybreak. Front continues to
linger in or just northwest of the area and will gradually weaken
today.

Mid level dry air and subsidence will linger in the area through
much of this morning before next slug of deep moisture, with
precipitable water values exceeding 1.9 inch, starts moving into the
region. Increase is not instant but will be steady from late
morning, peaking in the evening. Heights start to fall in the
afternoon, just as surface based instability peaks. Although the gfs
is riddled with feedback this afternoon it is possible to discern a
shortwave moving northeast from the gulf coast later this morning.

Pva ahead of the wave arrives coincident with the other favorable
factors. While there is a 110 kt+ 300 mb jet the wind MAX ends up
passing northwest of the area. Although limited by less than
favorable jet location there will still be some divergence aloft.

Deep warm cloud layer continues to be a theme in this environment,
forecast soundings suggest a depth around 11k ft, which will aid
precipitation efficiency and keep flooding a concern, especially in
areas that have received 3+ inches of rain in the last day or so.

Storm motions will be high enough that a single storm is unlikely to
be a concern but training storms will pose a significant flood risk
and so the flash flood watch will remain in effect. Temperatures
today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s but with potential for
localized areas where highs run several degrees warmer if the late
may Sun is able to break out for a brief period of time.

Widespread convection continues into the evening and first part of
the overnight. Low level jet strengthens to a solid 45 kt this
evening, although shear is somewhat limited. Still a strong or
severe storm cannot be ruled out and SPC has marginal risk for the
region. Dry slot wrapping around the 5h trough spreads over the area
around midnight, bringing an end to significant rainfall. The cold
front will still be west of the area at this point, likely just
entering the western carolinas. The 5h trough axis continues to be
slow moving and it is the strong shortwave rounding the base of the
trough the ultimately pushes the cold front into the forecast area
as the period ends. Although the mid levels dry out rapidly and the
forcing exits to the northeast by midnight, lingering low level
moisture will keep skies cloudy. Temperatures will range from mid
60s west to around 70 along the coast.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Tuesday... Cold front will be in process of moving
offshore Thursday morning, and along with it, much of the deep
moisture associated with our recent wet period. However, a
potent upper disturbance will swing through on Thursday
afternoon behind fropa, and this combined with residual moisture
should be enough to kick off a scattered round of daytime
convection. Rapid improvement will follow as the short wave
lifts northeast of the area and weak surface ridging builds in
from the west. Expect dry weather and clearing skies for
Thursday night through Friday. Relatively cool temperatures
following FROPA on Thursday will give way to seasonal readings
on Friday.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm Tuesday... Plenty of dry air will move in with deep
westerly flow on the back end of exiting low pressure system on
fri. Pcp water values drop down to .75 inches or below early fri
but do creep back up over an inch by late Friday. Overall
expect a sunny dry day on Friday with temps reaching into the
mid 80s.

High pressure ridge to the south will reach up into the
carolinas maintaining pleasant weather through much of the
weekend. A shortwave rides across the top of the ridge over the
weekend mainly remaining north of the forecast area. This could
produce some clouds or a spotty shower late Sat into Sat night,
mainly over nc. The GFS builds the ridge a little farther north
and therefore holds any weather farther to the north with a deep
warm southerly flow and sunnier weather overall all weekend. A
deeper mid to upper trough digs down late in the weekend and
could produce an increase of clouds and showers Sun through tues
timeframe. Will have to see how the models evolve. For now,
will keep chc of shwrs north of area through Sat night but will
include pops for Sun through tues.

The building ridge and westerly downslope flow through the mid
levels will produce above normal temps through much of the
period with temps reaching above 90 in spots especially over
the weekend.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z Wednesday... Primary concern today and tonight are low
cigs and vsbys due to scattered to widespread convection.

Although confidence in exact timing is low, confidence is high
that all terminals will see at least short periods of ifr
conditions due to shower and thunderstorm activity. Best chances
for reduced vsbys and CIGS this afternoon into early evening.

Extended outlook...VFR anticipated Thursday through Sunday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 am Tuesday... Small craft advisory remains in effect for
all zones through tonight. Southwest winds around 15 kt this morning
will increase to 20 to 25 kt today and 25 to 30 kt tonight as
gradient becomes pinched ahead of advancing cold front. Front will
remain west of the waters through the period, keeping wind direction
southwest. Exception would be thunderstorm outflow which would be
capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kt from any direction.

Seas will build from 4 to 6 ft this morning to 5 to 7 ft this
afternoon and evening with potential for 10 ft tonight.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Tuesday... Expect small craft advisory criteria to be
breached Thursday and Thursday night as a cold front passes
across and then moves east of the waters. Have extended the sca
into Thursday as a result. Gradually improving conditions on
Friday as high pressure builds in from the west means we will
likely be advisory-free for the end of the work week.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm Tuesday... A stronger off shore westerly flow on
Friday will diminish and back around to the w-sw through the day
as low pressure system exits farther off to the east and high
pressure builds up from the south. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will
diminish to 2 to 4 ft through Friday and down below 3 ft by fri
night in weakening offshore flow.

High pressure south of the area waters will shift east through
the weekend into early next week producing a persistent sw
return flow. Initially winds will only be 10 kts or so but low
pressure moving by to the north Sat night into Sun and an
approaching cold front late in the weekend into early next week
may produce an increase in SW winds. Seas less than 3 ft
Saturday in lighter winds will rise up to 3 to 5 ft in
increasing SW winds Sat night into sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Flash flood watch through this evening for scz017-023-024-032-
033-039-053>056.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Flash flood watch through this evening for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... Iii
short term... Rek
long term... Rgz
aviation... Rek
marine... Rek iii rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi50 min 76°F7 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 19 mi112 min WNW 1.9 69°F 1006 hPa
WLON7 22 mi49 min 72°F 77°F1005.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi38 min 74°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi89 min W 5.8 G 12 71°F 74°F1006 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi49 min SSW 5.1 G 6 71°F 74°F1004.9 hPa
SSBN7 25 mi97 min 4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi89 min W 14 G 18 73°F 76°F1005.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi89 min WSW 12 G 18 73°F 75°F1005.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi37 min WSW 21 G 25 77°F 1006.1 hPa (+1.6)72°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
S12
G15
S15
G22
S12
G16
S11
S12
S16
S16
S21
SW18
G25
SW7
SW5
SW6
SW11
G14
SW11
G14
S14
S14
SW11
SW7
G10
SW8
G15
W7
W4
SW6
G9
W5
G8
W4
1 day
ago
SW13
G16
SW11
G16
SW13
G19
S19
S19
S18
S19
S17
S17
S16
NW10
G14
N8
SE8
W5
G8
N2
S1
S2
SE3
SE7
S11
S16
S15
S14
G17
S14
G17
2 days
ago
NE14
NE14
NE13
NE12
G15
NE10
NE11
E11
E9
E9
E12
E11
E11
G14
E9
E12
E13
E11
SE11
SE8
S9
S10
S11
S11
SW11
S11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi42 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast74°F69°F86%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrSW9
G16
SW6SW9SW6
G14
SW7S6S8
G14
SW14
G22
SW13
G17
SW12
G15
W8SW6CalmS5SW7W9
G15
W8
G14
W8W9W6W7CalmW3SW10
G14
1 day agoSW7SW7SW7SW6SW8
G14
SW9SW6
G14
SW7S6S5W6N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmSE4S4S4S7
G15
2 days agoE3E7E5E5E8E7E5E5E6E3CalmE5E5E3E4SE3SE3CalmS6S7SW7SW6SW8SW8
G14

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Southport
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:12 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     4.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.10.10.92.13.34.14.54.33.42.10.90-0.5-0.40.51.93.44.65.45.653.72.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Cape Fear
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:56 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:08 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:24 PM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.20.21.32.63.74.54.74.33.42.20.9-0.1-0.7-0.30.82.43.95.15.75.64.93.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.