Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:33PM Thursday October 19, 2017 11:21 PM EDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:01AMMoonset 5:52PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 902 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt or less. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day, then showers likely through the night.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of tstms through the day. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 902 Pm Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate into the weekend as a moderate easterly swell persists. Northeast and east winds will turn southerly early next week ahead of a strong cold front with small craft advisory conditions possibly developing beginning late on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200119
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
919 pm edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
Mostly clear skies and seasonably warm temperatures are expected
into the weekend, as a dry upper ridge builds across the
region. An approaching strong cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms early next week. Much cooler temperatures are
forecast in the wake of the front beginning Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
As of 900 pm Thursday... High pressure consolidating over
eastern tn will gradually shift east-northeast Fri as it
slowly weakens. A weak shortwave has exited the coast and is
being replaced by a mid-level ridge through Friday. Winds will
be light and variable through the period due to a very weak
gradient in place. Deep dry air and light to calm winds
overnight will lead to strong radiational cooling with inland
cold spots dipping to the mid 40s. Along the coast, lows will
be in the lower to mid 50s. Very dry air lingers in the region
fri with precipitable water values peaking around 0.50 inch in
the afternoon. Highs on Fri will end up a few degrees warmer
than today, mainly due to building heights thickness and further
air mass modification. Flow remains northerly through just
about the entire column so there is no real warm advection to
speak of. Relaxed gradient will allow for development of weak
afternoon sea breeze which may temper highs along the coast,
but do not expect any cloud development.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... Mid to upper ridge up the southeast
coast and surface high pressure to our north will both shift
east through the period. Overall a very light NE flow will veer
around becoming more easterly through the period. This will
allow for an increase in low level moisture basically late sat
into Sat night. This should bring some low clouds mainly over
northeast sc or some fog elsewhere, mainly near the coast.

Dewpoint temps will increase from near 50 to 55 Fri night to 55
to around 60 by daybreak sun. The strong subsidence inversion
will slowly erode through the period but not enough to allow for
any pcp or for that matter much in the way of cloud. The dry
air in place will allow for a large diurnal swing, but slightly
dampened Sat night with an increase low level moisture. Overall
mainly clear skies and very light winds leading to decent
radiational cooling. Overnight lows will be 50 to 55 Fri night
and 55 to 60 Sat night most places while bright oct sunshine
will bring temps up close to 80 Sat aftn.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The upper level pattern continues to
show high pressure breaking down and a large scale trough moving
to the eastern half of the united states by Tuesday. This is
slower than the previous run. At the surface the frontal
boundary is slower with the GFS bringing the frontal boundary
into the area Tuesday night. The ECMWF is even slower with the
boundary pushing off the coast Wednesday morning.

Precipiation chances start late Sunday night with isolated
showers then chances increase to likely on Tuesday with the
frontal passage.

High temperatures will be around 80 degrees on Sunday and
Monday but with the frontal passage will see temperatures
falling into the upper 60s to middle 60s by Wednesday and
Thursday. Lows on Sunday night will be in the lower to middle
60s but will fall into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday
night.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Will continue with the high confidence ofVFR
through 20 23z. Clouds will be few through this TAF valid
period. Light and variable to calm winds overnight will become
n-ne winds at 5-10 kts expected Friday afternoon.

After 10z, with clear skies and light winds conditions will be
favorable for possible fog development. Moisture is very
limited and will just indicate MVFR vsbys for now.

Extended outlook... Tempo MVFR showers Mon tues. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1000 pm Thursday... High pressure over eastern tn will
shift east-northeast fri. Gradient over the waters continues to
relax with speeds under 10 kt overnight. Flow remains north to
northeast through the period, and gradient remains weak with
speeds 10 kt or less fri. Winds may veer to east or even
southeast later in the day in response to development of weak
sea breeze. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft overnight and 2 to 3 ft on
fri with an easterly swell around 9 seconds slowly decaying.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure to our north will shift
east through the period. Overall a very light NE flow will veer
around becoming more easterly through the period, remaining less
than 15 kts. Expect a slight chop Sat aftn as winds spike up
and become more on shore, but overall benign seas expected
mainly around 3 ft or less.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... High pressure over the waters will
weaken and shift offshore. This will allow for veering of the
winds with a southerly wind by Monday. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet
on Sunday and will slowly increase by late Monday to 3 to 4 feet
as the winds slowly increase ahead of front that will approach
the waters late Tuesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjd iii
short term... Rgz
long term... Drh
aviation... Mac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi51 min 74°F3 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 19 mi96 min NW 1.9 64°F 1023 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi52 min 74°F3 ft
WLON7 22 mi51 min 63°F 73°F1022.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi73 min E 3.9 G 7.8 74°F 74°F1022.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi51 min W 1 G 2.9 70°F 75°F1023 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi73 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 74°F1022.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi73 min E 7.8 G 14 75°F 76°F1022.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi41 min NE 9.7 G 14 75°F 76°F1022.3 hPa59°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair60°F58°F94%1023 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N5N5N5N4N5N5N5N3N5N7N7N9NE8E7E5NE7E4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN3N5N5N4N6N7N5N6N7N7N8N9NE7
G14
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2 days agoNE11
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NE11NE7
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N8N5NE6CalmCalmN3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:00 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.2-0.20.21.12.33.44.44.94.73.92.81.70.70.10.10.71.72.83.74.34.43.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:42 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.30.20.81.93.14.35.25.55.24.43.11.80.70.20.51.42.73.84.75.154.33.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.