Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:34PM Thursday January 24, 2019 5:13 AM EST (10:13 UTC) Moonrise 9:49PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 227 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt late this morning, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 10 to 13 ft, subsiding to 8 to 11 ft this afternoon. Showers this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 227 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Strong winds and showers will precede a cold front late this morning. Behind the front, improving winds and drier weather are expected as high pressure builds in from the west. This high will move offshore on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240750
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
250 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will precede a cold front
that will cross the area this morning. Seasonably cool and dry
air will build across the region in wake of the front through
the weekend. A slight warming trend will bring milder daytime
temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Another cold front, which may
be accompanied by showers, will move across the area during the
middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Thursday... A fast-moving 500 mb shortwave will push a
surface cold front across the area this morning, then offshore this
afternoon. Upstream radars indicate a large area of rain with
embedded heavier convective showers moving quickly northeast.

Precipitation will certainly survive (and thrive) as it moves east
given a very healthy inflow of low and mid level moisture from the
gulf plus excellent upper divergence within the right-entrance
region of a 250 mb jet extending from eastern kentucky up into
southern ontario. Forecast GFS and NAM soundings indicate there
should be small elevated instability present up through the time of
frontal passage, however the equilibrium level of today's convective
parcels may be too low to allow for significant ice aloft and
subsequent charge separation for lightning.

A low level jet will bring 50 kt winds as low as 1000 feet agl this
morning, and could help produce 35-40 mph wind gusts even outside of
the shallow convection. This is not quite enough for a wind advisory
but could still bring dead or weak tree limbs. Winds should become
lighter this afternoon in the 15-20 mph range.

Temperatures this morning are quite mild for mid-january, and will
probably rise another ~5 degrees before the front arrives, peaking
in the 65-69 degree range. Temperatures should fall behind the
front, but then may rise again to a second lower peak during the
afternoon hours as sunshine develops on drier westerly winds. A
secondary cold front will ease down from the north overnight with
much lighter winds allowing temperatures to fall into the 30s all
the way down to the beaches. GFS lows appear to be too warm, and
i've followed the colder nam ECMWF blend.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 3 am Thursday... Broad mid-level trough remains over the region
fri and Sat with a weak cold front passing dry Fri night into sat.

Front briefly reinforces cold advection, but surface high quickly
shifts offshore with weak return flow developing later sat.

Temperatures will end up below climo with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Precipitable
water remains under 0.30" through the period with periods of
time where it drops under 0.20". Forecast soundings do show an
increase in moisture around 30k ft Fri afternoon, as jet streak
approaching 150 kt crosses the area. This will likely lead to
fairly thick veil of cirrus but little else.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 3 am Thursday... Pattern aloft will remain amplified through
the period, with 2 distinct areas of low pressure, one passing
northwest of the area and one passing off the southeast coast
early next week.

-temperatures slightly below climo Sun warm slightly Mon and tue
as high slips off the coast and warm advection sets up. A cold
front Tue night will drop temperatures back below climo on
wed.

-flattened mid-level trough will limited moisture return into
the middle of next week, precipitable water will be under
0.50" through Tue with mostly clear skies.

-narrow band of moisture preceding cold front Tue night pushes
precipitable water close to an inch and has the look of a high
shear low CAPE event. Still a week out, but something to watch.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... A fetch of low-level moisture extending from gge to rdu
is where scattered MVFR CIGS and showers continue to advect inland.

This fetch of moisture will move with the warm front (currently over
the piedmont of nc), northward and inland. Winds associated with a
low-level jet will intensify and introduce a chance of wind shear
for coastal terminals beginning at 06z. This could provide enough
moisture advection to eek out a few showers ahead of the main line
of precipitation arriving near sunrise. The center of the low
pressure system will cross the area between 12z-16z causing wind
shear to increase as the low-level jet maximum moves NE along the
coast. ExpectVFR CIGS ahead of the line of showers with a few areas
of brief MVFR. As the line approaches, CIGS will remain in the 1k-3k
ft range with heavy showers and a couple rumbles of thunder. At this
time, we do not expect enough TS to include in the TAF due to lack
of instability. Winds will remain gusty and from the south; becoming
southwesterly as the line approaches. CIGS will diminish in the wake
of the front as westerly winds develop, bringing drier and much
cooler air.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 3 am Thursday... Strong south winds gusting to 35-40 knots
are expected for the remainder of the morning hours in advance of a
cold front. This front should reach the coastal waters between 10 am
and noon and will be followed by lighter westerly winds through the
afternoon. Ahead of the front widespread rain is expected with
embedded heavier showers. A dry secondary cold front will slide
south across the area overnight, veering westerly winds around to
the north.

A gale warning will remain in effect until the front arrives. Behind
the front winds in the 10-20 kt range won't even technically meet
small craft advisory criteria, however it will take until tonight
for seas to subside below 6 feet across the south carolina coastal
waters, and it could take until tomorrow for conditions to improve
across the CAPE fear area waters.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 3 am Thursday... Small craft advisory headlines will
likely continue through Fri morning, mainly for seas.

Decreasing northwest flow on Fri will see speeds drop close to
10 kt by midday. Winds from the northwest pick back up late fri
night into Sat as weak, dry cold front crosses the area. Speeds
may briefly hit 15 kt early Sat morning before weak high
pressure moves into the region and winds weaken as they veer to
northeast. Light and variable winds Sat will continue Sat night.

Seas over 6 ft will linger through Fri morning before subsiding
to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Seas drop to 3 ft or less fri
evening and will be around 2 ft Sat and Sat night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 3 am Thursday... Elongated surface ridge axis in the area
sun and Mon will keep wind speeds 10 kt or less with direction
varying due to the location and orientation of the ridge axis.

Light winds will keep seas around 2 ft through the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz250-252-254-
256.

Near term... Tra
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi44 min 53°F9 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi66 min S 16 G 21 60°F 55°F1009.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi44 min 54°F7 ft
WLON7 22 mi56 min 63°F 47°F1008.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi56 min S 14 G 15 59°F 1009.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi66 min S 16 G 25 60°F 52°F1008.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi66 min S 19 G 27 64°F 58°F1009.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi44 min SE 27 G 37 70°F 64°F1009.6 hPa64°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi34 minS 12 G 204.00 miRain62°F61°F96%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN5N4N5N6N6N9NE7NE7E6NE5E5E6NE8NE3CalmE3NE5E5E4E3CalmNE6E4Calm
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N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
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Thu -- 04:26 AM EST     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:39 AM EST     4.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.41.1-0-0.7-0.60.21.62.94.14.84.94.33.320.7-0.2-0.6-0.20.823.13.94.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:06 AM EST     5.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:38 PM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.70.4-0.6-0.8-0.21.12.63.94.95.354.12.71.30.1-0.6-0.40.41.62.93.94.64.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.