Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:46PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:17 PM EDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:04PMMoonset 5:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1048 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.gale warning in effect from Friday morning through late Friday night...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. A chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 25 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. Tstms likely. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming sw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. Tstms, showers.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers through the day.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1048 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will bring moderate southerly winds today. A strong cold front will increase winds and seas tonight through Saturday morning, with gales on Friday. Winds and seas will lessen late Saturday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181455
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1055 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
One more non-threatening weather day today, before a strong
cold front brings a good chance of severe thunderstorms Friday
afternoon and evening. Drying and clearing, slightly cooler
Saturday and Sunday, with a warming trend through early next
week under clear skies.

Near term through tonight
No significant modifications for the middle morning updates. As
warm air advection begins to intensify, a very mild overnight
period on tap 65-68 degrees most areas. Winds to prevent fog.

As of 300 am Thursday... South-north upper ridge axis will slide east
of the fa today resulting in s-sw flow opening up with tapping of
the gulf of mexico moisture source. Viewing various rh model time-ht
displays, mainly cirrus to affect the fa today with sct sc or cu
possible this aftn. With increasing moisture in the low levels due
to onshore sse flow, could see increasing coverage of stratus or
stratocu during the pre-dawn Fri hrs.

Models hint of a weak vort in the mid-levels over the atl ocean that
may swipe the coastal areas of the fa early Fri morning.

Have highlight this low chance for mainly showers with isolated
thunder possible over the adjacent atl waters. Should see widespread
80s for highs today, but with flow generally southerly and onshore,
the coastal areas will see a limit to their highs due to ssts in the
60s. As a result, looking at 5 to 10 degrees above normal for todays
highs, except for the coast. Tonights lows will see widespread mid
to upper 60s which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Impressive trough getting carved out along
86w on Friday, though some nagging model differences regarding its
evolution and the magnitude of the local severe weather threat
remain. Models such as the ec, wrf, and cgem show a phased upper
trough whereas the GFS allows considerably more northern branch
energy to not phase in and instead escape across new england
states. This will modulate how quickly the strongly forced
squall line enters the area from the west and therefore how much
instability remains. Usually models seem to tend to err on
phasing too much and wpc is leaning towards that solution, but
the consensus of the other models hard to ignore. Hopefully some
congealing of timing comes in future runs.

Assuming the timing is somewhere in between... A few showers will
move ashore in the warm advection zone along leading edge of ever
increasing low level jetting. The later afternoon evening line of
convection that moves in from the west will offer the severe threat
however as it moves into the coastal plain with lingering
instability, strong shear, deep layer ascent, and upper level
divergence. SPC has been highlighting the area since day 4 (not very
common here) and continues to carry an enhanced 30% risk in their
day 2 convective outlook citing mainly damaging winds but also
isolated tornadoes.

A short-lived wind advisory is hard to rule out especially along the
coast as a 60kt 925mb jet streaks north across the region around 00z
but like the storms it too may be fighting the diurnal loss of
instability. Cold air arrives behind the front Friday night and
Saturday highs should have trouble cracking 70 despite the return of
sunshine. Very chilly temperatures aloft also linger into Saturday
afternoon and a vorticity channel of 40-50 s-1 could touch off
isolated showers that could produce gusty winds and graupel
especially if the slower deeper solutions come to pass.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... Quiet weather expected through the long
term. Sunday brings the rapid exit of the strong upper low. Surface
pressure gradient weakens considerably but as afternoon mixing
deepens there will still be enough wind in the boundary layer for a
breezy afternoon especially given the well-aligned flow in the
vertical. Ridging builds at all levels above the still weak surface
pressure pattern Monday and Tuesday. A backdoor cold front
approaches from the north on Wednesday and some guidance is hinting
at some QPF and thus some warranted pops however all of the ridging
aloft makes this seem doubtful. Temperatures will be held a bit below
climatology on Sunday but then return to milder values as the high
shifts offshore.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... Kind of in a holding pattern until the front arrives on
Friday.VFR conditions are expected through tonight with a warm
southerly wind. Through the overnight hours expect the low level
moisture to increase, with a shower possible at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions likely from showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front from midday Fri thru fri
evening. Gusty sse-s winds expected midday Fri thru Fri evening
with gusts up to 30 kt inland terminals and 35+ kt coastal
terminals. MVFR should give way toVFR conditions by early
Saturday morning and continuing thru mon.

Marine
Gale warning flags flying for the 0-20 nm coastal waters...

gale force wind gusts are likely much of Friday, up to 40 kt
offshore, and 30 to 35 kt inshore, seas 8 to 14 feet by Friday
night.

A short window of favorable winds sea conditions this morning
will be followed by increasing winds and resulting seas this
aftn and especially later tonight into fri. The winds resulting
from the resultant wind sea breeze will drive the wind fields
today, especially nearshore due to the sea breeze influence.

However, well ahead of the approaching cold front, the waters
tonight will experience a tightening of the sfc pg with sse-s
winds increasing thru SCA thresholds and possibly reaching gale
force in gusts by daybreak fri. Significant seas today will be
governed by an 8 second ese 1-2 foot ground swell. Wind waves at
3 to 5 second periods will increase nearshore this aftn into
this evening from the sea breeze. However, it's during the pre-
dawn Fri hrs that the sfc pg tightens dramatically with
resulting sse-s winds producing a dramatic build up of seas
reaching just shy of 10 ft at 41013 by daybreak fri. Dominating
periods will run 6 to 8 seconds.

Friday through Saturday night:
the approach of a cold front being driven by an impressive
trough will bring building southerly winds all of Friday. Gale
watch continues and there is just enough uncertainty remaining
that we along with chs and mhx have elected to not raise to gale
warning yet. The rapidly warming afternoon will mean that
nearshore waters represent a cooler less unstable environment
and that surface winds may fall just short of sustained gale
force even though gusts to gale seem possible. That''s not to
say seas will not build to formidable heights through most of
the period. The frontal passage will occur Friday night turning
the flow sharply steepening the already sizable seas. Advisory
level seas will continue straight through the period. Winds will
dip below thresholds for a time following FROPA as the gradient
eases but then likely ramp back up Saturday as daytime mixing
deepens.

Sunday through Monday:
a lightening pressure gradient on Sunday though deep layer
enhanced wnw flow could lead to some gustiness once afternoon
mixing deepens. Small craft advisory may even still be in
effect to start the period but if so it won't last for long
until conditions drop below thresholds quite rapidly. The
remainder of the period will feature light flow as high
pressure moves overhead. Winds will turn gradually from
offshore to onshore Monday especially near the coast in an
afternoon seabreeze.

Tides coastal flooding
Minor coastal flooding for the lower CAPE fear river from
wilmington southward will occur around successive evening high
tides tonight through Sat night. Minor flooding will occur
within a 2 to 3 hour window centered around each evening high
tide. The peak levels at each high tide will range between 5.7
to 6.1 ft mllw. The exception will be Friday evening's high
tide which is forecast to peak just below moderate coastal
flooding thresholds which is 6.7 ft mllw.

Evening high tides:
thu 10:03 pm edt.

Fri 10:52 pm edt.

Sat 11:10 pm edt.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Friday for ncz107.

Marine... Gale warning from 8 am Friday to 2 am edt Saturday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Dch 8
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Dl
marine... mbb dch 8
tides coastal flooding... Ralf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi47 min 68°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi69 min S 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 63°F1019.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi47 min 64°F2 ft
WLON7 22 mi35 min 74°F 68°F1019.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi35 min S 11 G 12 69°F 62°F1019.6 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi69 min S 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 67°F1019.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi69 min SW 9.7 G 14 70°F 67°F1019.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi27 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 2 ft1020.4 hPa63°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi37 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F61°F61%1020 hPa

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1 day agoNE6E6SE6SE6SE6S6S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7SW7SW10SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
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Thu -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:35 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0.1-0.5-0.112.33.54.44.84.53.72.51.20.1-0.5-0.40.51.93.24.45.15.14.53.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:22 AM EDT     -0.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:30 AM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:41 PM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.5-0.40.51.93.34.45.15.14.43.21.90.5-0.4-0.60.11.42.94.25.25.65.34.32.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.