Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Southport, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:34PM Thursday October 18, 2018 12:33 AM EDT (04:33 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1013 Pm Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt or less, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 1013 Pm Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure building in from the west will bring strengthening northerly winds tonight. The high will move off the north carolina coast Friday. A strong cold front will sweep across the area late Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southport, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 172251
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
651 pm edt Wed oct 17 2018

Synopsis
Cool and dry high pressure will build in behind a cold front
tonight. A stronger cold front will move through the area
Saturday night. High pressure will build down from the north on
Sunday, slowly migrating eastward, maintaining cooler weather
through early Tuesday. Low pressure moving across the southeast
should bring clouds and rain in the second half of next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 700 pm Wednesday... The cold front is coming through in
several pieces. The first piece of the front has pushed all the
way down to charleston, sc and is discernible as a shift to
northerly winds. The second piece of the front just moved
through wilmington and lumberton in the past hour and shows up
as a drop in dewpoints. A third boundary will push through later
tonight, and this is where the real low-level cold and dry advection
will start. Dewpoints will fall into the 50s, then 40s late, as
air temperatures slide into the 50s by daybreak.

Changes with this forecast update include higher sky cover
values this evening due to advection of a thin layer of moisture
over the top of the frontal inversion, and a slight upward
adjustments to forecast lows across south carolina based on
non-nam model guidance. Discussion from 300 pm follows...

the cold front has shifted off the coast except for georgetown
county. The chance of any precipitation is dwindling as the
drier air moves southward and will overtake the entire forecast
area overnight. Cold air advection continue behind the cold
front and low temperatures are expected to fall to around 50
north of a lumberton to burgaw line and lower to middle 50s
elsewhere inland. Upper 50s at the beaches can be expected from
wrightsville beach southward.

On Thursday, cooler than average highs for the area with maximum
temperatures reaching the middle to upper 60s.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Though surface winds grow quite light
Thursday night the boundary layer cold advection remains healthy
above the surface. Thus the stage is set for a true taste of fall as
lows dip into the 40s for the first time since spring. Friday brings
very light winds as the high moves overhead and then offshore by
evening. Boundary layer isotherms line back up with wind barbs
shutting off the cold air advection. Though shallow mixing may
prevent the temperature recovery from Thursday being quite as much
as previously thought; it looks like most places will touch 70 for a
high instead of low 70s. Both the warm advection and the resulting
increase in cloud cover will keep Friday night quite mild with lows
very near 60; about 10 degrees above climatology.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Clouds should thicken early Saturday
with increasing chc of pcp as mid to upper trough digs south
from the great lakes and pushes a cold front through the
carolinas. Expect localized potential for higher end QPF in heavier
showers, but overall expect clouds and showers with a slight
chc of a thunderstorm, mainly toward the coast where better
instability is expected. Temps will be modified by clouds and
pcp but WAA ahead of the front will keep temps in the mid to
upper 70s most places.

Dry and cool high pressure will build down from the north on
Sunday, slowly migrating eastward, maintaining cooler weather
for much of next week. Expect some of the coolest temps of the
season Sun through Mon with MAX temps in the 60s. As high
reaches nearly overhead Sun night, should see more ideal
radiational cooling with a clear sky and near calm winds. The
dewpoints will drop into the mid 30s Sun night allowing temps to
drop down near 40 many places inland just before daybreak early
mon morning.

By tues into mid week, the air mass will modify slightly as
high shifts off the coast with models indicating possible
clouds and pcp affecting the area, with better chances along
the coast, as low pressure moves across the southeast.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 00z... High pressure will continue to build in through the
overnight hours. Mid and high clouds associated with the jet will
diminish and drop southward toward morning. Cold air advection after
03z will drop dewpoints and will keep the wind around 10kts and
above by 07-08z. Nearly clear skies in store for Thursday with a
north northeast wind.

Extended outlook... PredominatelyVFR through Friday. Moderate
confidence for showers and MVFR ifr conditions Saturday associated
with a cold front. Improving conditions Sunday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 700 pm Wednesday... Our cold front is coming through in
pieces. The first wind shift has pressed as far south as
charleston, sc. Northerly winds are now in place over the
entire northern half of south carolina. Another boundary is
approaching CAPE fear from the north, and yet a third boundary
will push through late this evening. It's this third piece of
the front that will usher in the increase to 20-25 kt wind
speeds. Model profiles show the potential for 30 knot gusts
developing late tonight due to increasingly chilly air moving
across unseasonably warm water.

Buoy-reported seas are currently 1-2 feet across the coastal
waters, and 3 feet out at the frying pan shoals buoy. Little
change is expected until late this evening when winds increase.

Discussion from 300 pm follows...

the cold front has moved off the coast except for georgetown,
and the front has not made it to frying pan shoals yet either.

The front is expected to have shifted east of the coastal waters
by 00 utc. Winds will begin to increase after sunset and
overnight to 20 to 25 knots as the cold air advection behind the
front moves across the waters. Seas will respond and increase
from 2 feet to 4 to 6 feet across the waters with a few 7 foot
waves possible at 20 miles off the coast. Thus the small craft
advisory will remain in effect.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Post-frontal winds and seas both quickly
abating Thursday night as high pressure builds in and gradient
eases. The high will move overhead on Friday turning winds
clockwise from NE to E and then se. This veering continues Friday
night as the high moves offshore and a light southerly flow
ensues.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure will shift further off
the coast Sat as a cold front approaches from the nw. Expect
increasing s-sw winds on Sat as gradient tightens ahead of the
front. By Sat aftn, this decent southerly push ahead of cold
front will drive seas up to 3 to 4 ft, with some 5 fters
remaining parallel to the coast and mainly in the outer waters
sat aftn. The seas may level off slightly Sat eve before
increasing again heading into Sat night as canadian high
pressure builds down behind the cold front into early next week,
with a decent northerly surge up to 15 to 20 kts. This should
keep seas in the 3 to 5 ft range for most waters, reaching near
sca thresholds. The cold air rushing over the warmer waters
will keep the marine layer well mixed with gusty northerly winds
sun into mon. Then winds will diminish and continue to veer
around to a more easterly direction heading through mon.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 8 pm edt
Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Rgz
near term... Tra rh
short term... mbb
long term... Rgz
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41108 14 mi34 min 79°F2 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 22 mi34 min 78°F2 ft
WLON7 22 mi34 min 69°F 74°F1022.7 hPa (+1.6)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 22 mi26 min NNE 12 G 16 73°F 79°F1022.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 24 mi34 min NNW 5.1 G 8 70°F 80°F1022.8 hPa (+1.5)
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 25 mi26 min NNE 9.7 G 14 72°F 79°F1022.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi26 min NNE 14 G 18 75°F 80°F1022.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi34 min N 1.9 G 3.9 77°F 80°F1021.7 hPa (+0.6)67°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC3 mi49 minN 410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F65°F84%1022.7 hPa

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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW8SW7W6W7W4W6W10
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1 day agoS5S3S4S5S4SW8SW6W5NW5W7W4W7NW4S5S5SW7S5SW4S3SW7SW4SW3SW6SW4
2 days agoS5S4S4S3CalmS4CalmCalmS6S5S6S7S7S6S8S5S6S4S4CalmS3S4S3SW3

Tide / Current Tables for Southport, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Southport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:43 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:20 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:43 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.83.33.73.83.532.41.81.31.11.422.73.444.34.23.83.22.41.71.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Fear, North Carolina
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Cape Fear
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:10 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.43.84.13.93.52.82.21.61.31.31.92.63.44.14.54.64.33.72.92.11.41.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.