Monday, June18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:57 PM EDT (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1224 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1224 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high will linger off the coast through the week. This will create steady southwest winds each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181655
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1255 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Hot and humid weather can be expected to crank up in the days
ahead, and heat advisories and even warnings are possible into
mid week. Storms today will mainly affect SE nc this afternoon
to early evening. Rain chances will increase late in the week,
as a cold front drops slowly south of the area. This front may
lift north over the region next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1255 pm Monday... No appreciable changes made with midday
updates, plentiful sbcape, best pwat values and low-level
convergence to reside across the eastern 1 3 zones, should set
the stage for convection this afternoon, primarily favored over
se nc. Storms that form will drop sse-s, may approach CAPE fear
late in the day before drying aloft thwarts longevity.

As of 900 am Monday... Forecast in good shape no significant
changes needed, and as expected, an early morning MCS slipped
off to the NE leaving a brief cirrus canopy over the SE corner
of nc. The only notable change was reconfiguring mid afternoon
to early evening pop distribution, to depict more of an east to
west line of convection from burgaw to eyf to lbt initiated
between 18-19z based on outflow influence. Steering flow should
drop storms s-sse into CAPE fear by 23-00z, dissipating soon
after due to 500-700 mb subsident drying. No other changes of
note, expect heat indices of 100-104 today when combining air
temps and absolute humidity, and an sps was issued to address
this hazard.

As of 300 am Monday... Heat and humidity begins to build today
as the last few days of astronomical spring will feel very
much like the middle of summer.

500mb ridge will drift SE today from the oh vly into the
southern appalachians, all while expanding into the eastern
carolinas. It is the increasing thicknesses and subsidence
beneath this feature which will drive the increasing
temperatures today. At the same time, it is the orientation of
this same feature which has allowed showers and tstms to develop
overnight beneath mid-level impulses and push SE across eastern
nc. Latest runs of the hrrr try to bring a few showers into
cape fear by daybreak, but observed trajectories suggest nearly
all of the activity will miss us to the ne. Have maintained just
a very schc pop for wilmington and points NE for potential, but
do not expect much overnight.

What is more likely is that any residual boundaries leftover
from this overnight convection will linger in the vicinity and
then merge with what should be an early sea breeze development.

The orientation of the mid-level ridge will keep lr's relatively
weak across inland portions of the cwa, limiting instability
somewhat despite the intense heat and humidity. However, coastal
zones will be along the periphery of this feature and MLCAPE is
progged to climb towards 3500 j kg. This intense instability
combined with surface convergence along any boundaries, pwats
approaching 2 inches, and weak impulses rotating atop the ridge
and then down along the va nc coast should allow for at least
scattered tstms this aftn. The sea breeze will likely struggle
to push inland much today thanks to W NW flow aloft, and this
same flow is creating very dry air above 800mb. This suggests
that convection will be capped across the western half of the
cwa, so the hottest areas in the pee dee will also be areas to
see no precip today. Best chance for pop will be inland cape
fear counties and other parts of SE nc, with lesser chances to
the SW from there.

Although most convection will be diurnally forced and wane with
loss of heating, some of the high res guidance is again
indicating the potential for a nocturnal cluster of tstm
development beneath yet another impulse rotating southward.

These is a good chance that this will again occur, but whether
it can reach into the CWA is less certain. Have carried schc pop
after midnight for SE nc counties only which matches best sref
probs for 0.10 qpf, but would not be surprised if again the best
activity stays NE of the cwa.

Temps will soar quickly today, with the exception being along
the immediate coast where an early sea breeze development is
forecast. Highs on the immediate coast will be capped just below
90 this aftn, but will be as hot as 97-98 west of i-95.

Fortunately, enough dry air mixing is forecast to allow dewpoint
values to drop into the upper 60s well inland where temps are
highest, low to mid 70s at the coast, and heat index values will
rise to 100-104 nearly everywhere away from the beaches. No
heat advisory (hi of 105 or greater) is being hoisted, but it
will still be quite uncomfortable and even dangerous if outdoors
for extended periods of time this aftn. A very hot day will be
followed by a mild and humid night, with lows in the mid 70s
inland, upper 70s at the coast.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 400 am Monday... Initially, the near term period ie.

Today(Monday), has been highlighted with "hot" conditions
expected. And now, this 2-day short term period following the
near term, will be highlighted with "hotter"(Tuesday) and
"hottest"(Wednesday). In essence, heat advisory criteria will
likely be met across all locations except possibly the
immediate coast depending on the formation and inland
progression of the daily sea breeze. Various MOS guidance has
mid to upper 90s for MAX temps both days, with some 100+ degree
max temps well inland for Wed highs. With sfc dewpoints mainly
in the 70s for both days. With a pinned sea breeze expected both
days due to wsw to wnw winds aloft preventing any possible
inland progression. In a way that may be a blessing, because it
will prevent those mid to upper 70s sfc dewpoints from pushing
too far inland which would have made the rh conditions further
unbearable with this heat.

The upper ridging across the southeast states will be the
primary wx feature that drives this upcoming heat wave.

Quantity-wise, the 5h upper ridging only peaks around 589-591
this period, not the classic 5h heights reaching 600 that
would normally produce 100+ degree temperatures across the ilm
cwa. However, in our case for Tue thru wed, it's the
positioning of this upper ridging which utilizes the local
regime. Ie., flow sfc thru 7h across the ilm will utilize a
downslope trajectory off the appalachians.

The best pops during this period will remain just outside of
the ilm CWA periphery, from northwest of flo, to north of lbt,
to northeast thru east of ilm. Granted it will be low chance
tue and possibly low to modest during Wed due to a frontal
system slithering southward.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Extended guidance has jogged into better
agreement (at least with the 00 utc ecmwf) that strong mid
level ridging will be suppressed to the south and west through
the period. For Wednesday, the westerly downslope flow will
allow temperatures to once again surge well into the 90s with a
possible heat advisory. The ridge begins its migration south
Thursday via what could be a MCS or two emanating from ohio
valley convection. The ridge moves to the south in earnest
over next weekend as the westerlies make a run south. Minimal
pops on Wednesday although almost never a dry forecast around
here in the summer. Pops ramp upward through the remainder of
the period with the highest values Saturday. As implied
earlier, temperatures trend downward beyond Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... A cluster of storms overnight will likely leave a
few boundaries behind which will become a focus for convection
this afternoon. These weak outflows will interact with the sea
breeze boundary,mainly affecting lbt and ilm. Moderate southerly
flow becoming more westerly through the overnight hours. Little
to no fog is forecast.

Extended outlook... PredominantlyVFR through Friday with
possible short duration MVFR ifr fog or low stratus each
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening. Chances for rain increase Thursday
through Saturday.

Near term through Monday ...

as of 1255 pm Monday... Dominant wave periods will hold between
4-5 seconds this afternoon and tonight. Tstms from surf city to
cape fear should be anticipated late this afternoon and early
evening, and will move to the sse-s, radar updates are
encouraged, as winds and waves will be higher in and near
tstms. Sea heights generally 3 feet, and bumpy, dominated by
short-crested, chopped up wind-seas.

As of 300 am Monday... High pressure offshore will maintain sw
winds across the waters through tonight, but with gradually
increasing speeds. Buoy reports this morning have SW winds 10-15
kts with gusts up to 25 kts beyond the 20nm boundary. Although
the direction will fluctuate little, speeds are forecast to
climb through the aftn, becoming 15-20 kts this evening and
tonight, highest across amz250. Gusts up to 25 kts are also
possible, but these will likely be confined to the NE waters.

These winds will drive an increasing SW wind wave to 4ft 5sec
late, combining with a weak 1ft 8sec SE swell. This will push
seas upward from around 2 ft this morning, to 3-4 ft this
evening, with a few 5 fters possible in amz250 late. ATTM am not
hoisting any cautionary statements or advisories, but a short
duration scec or SCA may be required late tonight for nc waters.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 400 am Monday... Models indicate a possible MCS exiting
off the central nc coast between CAPE hatteras and CAPE fear
early Tue morning. This feature will continue southward,
eventually moving away from the local waters during the Tuesday.

Looking at model time height displays for various parameters,
ie winds, it looks like a weak to modest sw-w low level jet
develops late in the evening each night and peaks toward
sunrise each morning before decreasing back. This will keep
local winds across the area waters somewhat busy overnight into
the daytime morning hrs each day before dropping back. These
winds will peak in the 10-20 kt range during the pre-dawn hrs
each morning then drop back to 10 to occasionally 15 kt. The sea
breeze will develop each aftn evening but with those "westerly"
winds aloft, do not expect too far of an inland push.

Significant seas will run in the 2 to 4 foot range thruout this
period. The 8 to 9 second period ese ground swell of the past
few days has diminished in height but remains present. The
primary driver for sig. Seas will come from locally produced
wind chop generated by locally winds that will eventually
coalesce to a 4 to 6 second period chop.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont
trough will keep a southwest flow in place. Wind speeds will be
10-15 knots. Some guidance is advertising a brief period or two
of northwest winds in the wake of more organized convection but
this is all but impossible to forecast this far out in time.

Significant seas will be 1-3 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz106-

Marine... None.

Near term... Jdw 8
short term... Dch
long term... Shk
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 8 mi117 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi49 min SW 16 G 21 81°F 82°F1019.4 hPa
41108 23 mi27 min 82°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi39 min 89°F 81°F1018.6 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi39 min 1023.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi39 min SW 11 G 16 86°F 80°F1018.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi27 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi49 min NW 18 G 21 80°F 81°F1018.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi27 min SW 18 G 21 81°F 81°F1019.8 hPa75°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi77 minWSW 1110.00 miFair84°F75°F76%1020 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi64 minSSW 1210.00 miFair85°F77°F77%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
1 day agoSE7
2 days agoSE5E6E6E3E4E7E4NE3NE3CalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E8E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:19 AM EDT     5.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Mon -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:37 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.