Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:05PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 5:59AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 319 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Sunday morning...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Fri..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 319 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across the waters through early Friday. Low pressure will move up the southeast coast Friday into Saturday with high pressure returning for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220833
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
333 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Cool and clear weather to prevail this thanksgiving day, with
with freezing conditions possible Friday morning inland. Rain
will overspread the region Saturday, as a gulf system tracks
up the coast. This system will clear out Sunday with a brief
warming trend Monday, before cooler air arrives into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am Thursday... Surface high continues to build in from
the west today under very broad 5h trough. Northeast flow
continues through the period with the high shifting from west-
northwest of the area this morning to north of the area tonight.

As the high shifts northeast, it helps reinforce cold air with
a secondary surge today. Cold advection will battle diurnal
heating with temps ending up in the mid to upper 50s in most
places if partial thickness values are right. Heating coupled
with cold advection and stronger winds aloft is likely to result
in breezy conditions this afternoon. Flow aloft is more or less
progressive into the evening before a weak southern stream
shortwave moves over the eastern gulf coast. Shortwave passes
too far south to bring any rainfall to the forecast area, but a
slight increase in mid-level moisture may lead to some scattered
clouds crossing the area later today and overnight. For the
most part skies will be clear. Lows overnight will end up
dropping to and even below freezing despite having a bit of wind
all night. Wind does add a wrinkle and decreases confidence for
a possible freeze warning across a few counties where lows at
32 are marginal, mainly inland pender, columbus, marion, and
williamsburg. For now will issue a freeze warning for the inland
tier plus florence and marion. Inland pender, columbus, and
williamsburg may need to be added later today, especially once
the amount of heating warming becomes evident.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 330 am Thursday... Dry and cold start to the period early
Friday, will transition to an over-running rain late Friday and
Saturday, as a multi-pronged low pressure complex tracks ne
across the region. The 2 primary QPF axes railroad the area,
leaving very SE nc and NE sc in the middle, and in the lower
realm of rainfall amounts. The short-wave orientation will send
the other low west of the appalachian spine, wile miller-b
energy transfer maintains an offshore low. Latest wpc qpf
analysis suggests up to an inch along the coast for storm
total, 1 2 inch average inland. Veering winds to ene-e Friday
night will spread milder maritime air inland, with 40s and rain,
rising into the 50s to mid 60s Saturday, rain to taper in
afternoon or late day of Saturday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Conditions dry out quickly into Sunday
as low pressure pushes offshore rather rapidly. Low temps in
the 40s with decreasing cloudiness. A quick moving secondary
system that once looked like quite the rainmaker for our area is
now very progressive in nature and will bring a cold front
quickly through the area with slight to low chance pops early
next week. Overall temperatures remain at or just below
climatology for most of the period.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z...VFR expected through the period with surface high
building in from the north. Winds will remain northerly through
the period with speeds increasing to 8-10 kt this afternoon.

Some potential for breezy conditions once temps rise a little,
but northerly gusts should remain under 20 kt. Any gusts will
start to diminish late in the day.

Extended outlook...VFR to prevail next couple of days. Storm
system Friday night into Saturday could bring rain and potential
ifr MVFR conditions to the region.VFR Sunday and Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Thursday... High pressure building in from the west-
northwest will shift north of the area today. Surface gradient
tightens up as cold surge moves across the waters this morning.

Winds will increase from around 15 kt this morning to 20 to 25
kt in the afternoon with gusts in excess of 30 kt. Strong
northeast flow continues overnight with seas responding by
building from 2 to 4 ft this morning to 4 to 6 ft by late
afternoon early evening. Seas peak in the 5 to 7 ft range with
isolated 8 ft possible overnight. The inherited small craft
advisory remains in effect with the start time unchanged based
on latest forecast parameters.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 330 am Thursday... A difficult and dangerous marine period
as strong NE winds tear across the waters, inducing steep wind-
seas mixed with chaotic chop. The dangerous sea spectrum will
see waves up to 8 feet offshore in 6-7 second wave periods, this
co-joined with chilly gusts in excess of 30 kt at times. A
venture offshore in a small craft is highly discouraged this
period. Conditions will improve into early Sunday as winds let
up, but seas will still be messy and in a state of recovery,
long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... The next cold front approaches the area
by Monday, with a low chance for small craft advisory criteria
conditions.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Freeze warning 3 am to 8 am Friday scz017-023-024-032-033.

Nc... Freeze warning 3 am to 8 am Friday ncz087-096.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am est this morning for
ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 7 am est
Sunday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... Iii
short term... 8
long term... Mas
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi74 min NNE 16 G 19 48°F 62°F1024.4 hPa
41108 23 mi52 min 64°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi34 min 43°F 52°F1025 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi34 min N 15 G 19 44°F 66°F1025 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi22 min 63°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi74 min NNE 18 G 25 51°F 64°F1024 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi32 min N 19 G 25 59°F 73°F4 ft1023.6 hPa44°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi82 minN 410.00 miFair42°F34°F76%1024.7 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi29 minN 510.00 miFair42°F35°F76%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N3N6N7N5N5N4NW5NW10NW9
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1 day agoSW4W5W9W7SW7W7W7W7W7W5SW6W5W3CalmW3CalmN6N4N5N6N9N7N7N6
2 days agoN7N4N7N7N8N7N6N4CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W6

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     5.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:28 PM EST     4.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-00.21.42.94.35.35.75.54.73.62.31.20.40.20.823.34.34.84.84.33.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:31 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:59 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:39 AM EST     5.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:06 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:59 PM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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000.82.13.54.65.25.34.83.92.71.50.60.20.51.42.63.74.44.64.33.62.51.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.