Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:13PM Monday May 22, 2017 5:29 PM EDT (21:29 UTC) Moonrise 3:01AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 353 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers and scattered tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers and scattered tstms.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 353 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. SEveral waves of low pressure will move along a stalled front running over the carolinas through much of the period. Small craft advisory conditions could develop Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221911
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
311 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Waves of low pressure will develop along stalled cold front
producing increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through
mid week. A cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system
over the ohio valley on Thursday will push through bringing the
final round of storms to the area. High pressure will build in
on Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend.

Near term /through Tuesday/
As of 300 pm Monday... Waves of low pressure will move along a
stalled frontal boundary which appears to be running from SW to
ne west of local forecast area. A deep W to SW flow of warm and
moist air with dewpoint temps near 70 degrees will persist ahead
of this front. The moisture profiles show rh greater than 80
percent from near the sfc up through the mid to upper levels.

Pcp water values remain above 1.75 inches increasing up near 2
inches for most of tonight. With deep moisture present, just
need a forcing mechanism to help to produce showers and
thunderstorms over the area. Shortwave energy rotating around a
deepening mid to upper trough digging down from the upper great
lakes combined with increased jet dynamics will produce periods
of showers and thunderstorms through the period focused along
and ahead of this boundary.

Overall expect plenty of clouds but enough instability to
initiate showers and storms especially along the stalled front,
sea breeze front or any other localized boundaries. The hrrr
depicted the sea breeze development and other shwrs/tstms inland
this afternoon and shows more widespread activity developing
along waves of low pressure along front just along the west to
northwest periphery of our local forecast area closer to the
vicinity of i-95 corridor later this aftn into early this
evening and shifting eastward toward the coast overnight. Spc
shows marginal risk for severe storms over western zones and
farther west and south with main threat of damaging wind gusts.

Wpc has issued a mpd for localized pcp amounts greater than 3
inches focused along the stalled front nosing into our inland
sc zones, mainly into darlington, marlboro, florence area.

Not much will change for Tuesday as the front remains wavering
over the area as shortwave energy moves around deepening upper
trough right across our area. The models show a MCS type feature
with the strongest storms and heaviest rain exiting the area
off to the northeast by noon on tues, but clouds and shwrs
should persist through tues aftn.

A very warm and moist airmass along with clouds and pcp will
keep temps well above normal overnight, remaining around 70
degrees most places. High temps tomorrow will only gain about 10
degrees making it to around 80 degrees.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
As of 300 pm Monday... Front remains stalled in the area tue
night, moving a little closer to the coast by Wed morning.

Although moisture will be on the high side there will be a lack
of upward motion. In fact there may be a lull as the passage of
a surface wave Tue evening and its associated shortwave will
lead to a period of subsidence Tue night. Forecast soundings
depict this rather well showing a mid level subsidence inversion
developing and precipitable water values dropping close by as
much as 0.50 inch overnight. Mid level trough axis remains well
west of the area Wed which will keep the front lingering in the
region. Passage of the surface wave Tue night may briefly push
the front south of the area early Wed but it is quick to return
north as a warm front around midday wed.

Better rainfall chances develop later Wed and Wed night as potent
shortwave dropping into the 5h trough early Wed helps kick the mid
level pattern in motion. The 5h trough rotates east-northeast wed
into Wed night, driving a stronger cold front into the region wed
night. Increasing southwest flow ahead of the front, as well as
strengthening low level jet, increases deep moisture in the region.

Pwats rise to near 2 inches Wed afternoon and evening and mid level
lapse rates steepen. PVA ahead of advancing shortwave, strong
divergence aloft, and the abundance of moisture coupled with low
level dynamics should yield a healthy line of convection wed
afternoon and evening. Although severe parameters are not
particularly high there will be at least some potential for severe
weather given the strengthening low level jet and modest shear.

Large dry slot sweeps in late Wed night as the trough axis moves
east, ending any precip prior to daybreak thu. Cold front likely to
be moving into the region as the period ends so cooler and drier air
will not arrive until after the end of the period. High temperatures
will continue running below climo with lows above to well above
climo due to clouds and moisture.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 300 pm Monday... Deep frontal moisture to be offshore by the
start of the period. However the main trough axis and strongest
shortwave will be crossing the area and this should manage to
squeeze a few light and short-lived showers. Continued dry advection
and the lifting of the trough Thursday night should keep us dry
despite one last final and moderately strong vorticity center
streaking by. Zonal flow will keep the weekend dry and fairly
seasonable with only gradually increasing surface dewpoints.

Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/
As of 18z Monday... Included shwrs/vcts for all TAF sites through
tonight into Tuesday. Airmass remains very moist and warm ahead
of a stalled front running from SW to NE across inland
carolinas. Waves of low pressure riding along the front along
with upper level forcing will produce periods of shwrs/tstms
across the area through the TAF period. Initially the convection
along sea breeze front will push inland giving a break to
coastal tafs through later this afternoon but westerly steering
flow will keep it clouded over most of the time. Therefore
inland tafs will have greater chc through early this evening but
coastal tafs will have a greater chc overnight, mainly after
midnight or 03z. Southerly flow will be gustier along the coast
through early this evening due to sea breeze.

Extended outlook... Reduced flight categories will be possible
in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. The
strongest convective activity will occur Wednesday.

Marine
Near term /through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm Monday... South to southeast flow will increase
from 10 to 15 kts up to 15 to 20 kts as gradient tightens
between cold front to the west and high pressure to the east.

This persistent southerly push will produce an increase in seas
into early tues morning from 2 to 4 ft this afternoon up to 3 to
5 ft heading into tues. Wna model data shows a fairly sharp
rise tues with the greatest winds and seas occurring through
the day on tues. May see a period of scec conditions late
Tuesday.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...

as of 300 pm Monday... Front remains west of the waters through
the period, maintaining southwest flow. Speeds start to increase
later Wed and Wed night as the front moves to the coast and
slowly strengthening low moving into the oh valley helps tighten
the gradient. Southwest flow on the high end of the 15 to 20 kt
range Tue night will increase to a solid 20 kt around midday
wed with 20 to 25 kt expected late Wed and Wed night, likely
requiring SCA headlines for all waters. Seas will build due to
prolonged and increasing southwest flow. Seas 4 to 5 ft at the
start of the period will build to 4 to 6 ft during wed,
eventually reaching 7 ft Wed night.

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...

as of 300 pm Monday... Small craft advisory will be in effect on
Thursday just ahead of a cold front that will pinch the
gradient. Within the agitated wind field of the pinched gradient
a strong upper disturbance will traverse the area possibly to
enhance wind gusts. In the wake of this boundary there will be
west winds to round out the period of gradually diminishing
speed. Wave heights will similarly abate somewhat slowly.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Iii
long term... mbb
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi81 min SW 12 G 16 77°F 77°F1014.6 hPa
SSBN7 8 mi89 min 2 ft
41108 23 mi42 min 77°F3 ft
WLON7 31 mi41 min 82°F 78°F1013.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 32 mi104 min SW 8.9 82°F 1016 hPa71°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi41 min 1013.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi41 min S 18 G 20 77°F 77°F1013 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi30 min 76°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi81 min S 9.7 G 18 77°F 75°F1014.5 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi29 min S 14 G 18 78°F 78°F1014.3 hPa (-2.8)69°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi34 minSSW 7 G 1410.00 miFair81°F70°F72%1014.6 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi36 minS 1310.00 miFair79°F72°F79%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E3CalmE5E5E3E4SE3SE3CalmS6S7SW7SW6SW8SW8
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1 day agoS6SW4S4SW3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3E3E3E7E5E5E8E7E5E5
2 days agoSW7SW7SW5SW6SW4SW4SW6SW4SW6SW6W5W5W5W3W5W6W9
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:01 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     5.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.62.83.94.64.74.13.11.90.8-0-0.3012.53.94.95.354.23.11.90.8

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.22.33.44.34.64.33.52.41.20.2-0.3-0.20.61.83.24.45.15.14.53.52.31.20.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.