Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:13PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 8:37 AM EDT (12:37 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 612 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 612 Am Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure across the mid-atlantic states will move offshore Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front may reach the area early Saturday but should return north again Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221118
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
718 am edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A slightly warmer than normal afternoon today will give way to
an extended heat wave. There are no appreciable rain chances
over the course of the next seven days.

Near term through Thursday
As of 300 am Wednesday... A surge of easterly winds early this
morning is moving across the area, spreading low clouds inland from
the coast. Models have a surprisingly good handle on this almost
mesoscale event and show clouds thinning from east to west later
this morning. It may take until afternoon to get cloud ceilings to
break across the interior pee dee region where cloud depth near 2000
feet will resist the strong may Sun for a few additional hours.

In the mid and upper levels strong high pressure is building across
georgia and south carolina. Forecast 500 mb heights exceeding 591
dam this afternoon and 593 dam Thursday should be at least 100
meters above average and among the highest values observed in may
according to the SPC sounding climatology website using chs data.

The maritime boundary layer moving onshore is relatively cool and
should keep high temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s near the coast
today. Inland temps should still reach the mid to upper 80s.

Slightly drier air should make significant inroads across north
carolina where dewpoints will probably dip into the 50s this
morning. If we get popup showers this afternoon the best potential
should be across darlington and westward into central south carolina
where higher dewpoints will exist along with modest surface-based
instability. Forecast pops near darlington are only 20 percent.

High pressure across the mid-atlantic states will move offshore
Thursday. This should veer our surface winds from east to south.

Despite an increase in temperatures and dewpoints, a stronger
subsidence inversion aloft will probably cap off any potential for
showers.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... Thursday night ends the slightly
cooler conditions as the near term front lifts back to the north
and west atlantic high pressure return flow resume. Only low
level flow will turn to the south however so the moisture will
not grow very deep. Dewpoints will be creeping up but will not
quite reach the muggy levels seen earlier in the week. So even
as Friday highs soar into the low 90s the apparent temperatures
will only run a few degrees higher and stay well short of any
heat advisory. A backdoor cold front drops into the area on
Friday night bringing little more than a windshift over northern
zones.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 am Wednesday... At the surface, backdoor front washes
out over the area on Saturday. Mid level ridge over the gulf
states on Saturday to bring very unseasonably warm conditions
locally. Sunday and Monday then grow even hotter, less due to
thermal advection and more due to warmer starts and building low
level warmth (gfs forecast soundings show a 7kft boundary layer
by Monday afternoon). Record highs appear to be in jeopardy,
some dating back to the 1950s. The low level ridge above the bl
never makes it offshore, still precluding moisture deep enough
for surface dewpoints that will push the area into heat advisory
realm. Some guidance has been suggesting that the ridging aloft
should start to weaken early next week leading to a very
gradual abating trend in the heat. Given the common model bias
of breaking down such hot ridges too quickly have opted to keep
the forecast rain-free at this time and will show a continuation
of the heat wave.

Aviation 11z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... A cold front has pushed south of the area and stalled.

Behind the front, easterly winds have created predominantly MVFR
stratus with a few areas of ifr at the inland sc terminals. Expect
vfr conditions to return late this morning from east to west as dry
air advects into the boundary layer eroding the remaining stratus.

Winds will continue to be from the east at 10-15 knots today until
this evening when the front weakens along with the associated
pressure gradient. A few areas of marine stratus are possible after
00z, but will keepVFR for now.

Extended outlook... ContinuedVFR through the weekend as high
pressure dominates. Slight chance of brief MVFR conditions each
morning from low stratus and or fog.

Marine
As of 300 am Wednesday... 1026 mb high pressure centered across the
mid-atlantic states has pushed a reinforcing surge of east-northeast
winds across the area. Sustained wind speeds have increased to 15-20
kt north of CAPE fear, and should increase to around 15 kt south of
cape fear. These winds should continue through most of the day,
gradually diminishing and veering southeasterly tonight, then
becoming southerly on Thursday afternoon as the high moves off the
mid-atlantic coastline. All models are in agreement with this
scenario and this is a high-confidence forecast.

Seas should build to 3-4 feet this morning (highest near and north
of CAPE fear) in a 4-second wind chop. Beneath this, a smaller 9-
second southeast swell will continue. As winds diminish overnight
into Thursday seas should fall to around 2 feet.

Thursday night through Friday night: southerly flow generally
expected through the period. A backdoor cold front will sink into
the area Friday night possibly turning flow very briefly E or even
ne, mainly over northern waters. Seas generally 2-3 ft. Backswell
from a system off new england coast largely gets wave shadowed by
obx and largely stays east of the forecast zones.

Saturday through Sunday: boundary both lifts out to the north and
falls apart over the weekend. This leaves atlantic high pressure to
reassert itself albeit weakly. Light southerly winds and 2 to
possibly 3 ft seas to continue.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi29 min E 14 G 21 72°F 76°F1021 hPa
41108 23 mi37 min 74°F4 ft
WLON7 31 mi37 min 71°F 78°F1021.5 hPa (+2.3)
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi37 min 73°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi37 min NE 19 G 21 71°F 75°F1021.6 hPa (+2.3)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi29 min ENE 16 G 21 71°F 74°F1021.2 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi37 min 74°F4 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi27 min NE 18 G 21 75°F 1020.8 hPa69°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi57 minENE 7 miOvercast73°F63°F73%1021 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi44 minE 810.00 miOvercast73°F66°F79%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW9SW9S6SW6SW6S4S7S5S4SW5SW3SW3CalmCalmE4E6NE8E6NE4E4NE3E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:40 AM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.24.73.62.41.30.50.20.71.72.73.54.14.23.832.11.20.50.30.81.8344.7

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:12 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.95 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:39 PM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.73.92.81.60.70.20.41.22.233.63.93.83.22.41.50.70.30.51.32.43.44.24.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.