Monday, January22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Holden Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:07 AM EST (16:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:35AMMoonset 10:53PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 956 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 956 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will give way to a cold front moving through the area late tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build in for the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holden Beach, NC
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location: 33.92, -78.37     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221511
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1011 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Mild january weather will prevail through Tuesday, ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light coastal showers later today, will
be followed by more widespread shower coverage Tuesday, with a
slight chance of a thunderstorm. Cooler air will move in during
the mid-week period, as high pressure builds from the west. A
cold front will approach next weekend, bringing a warming trend,
and a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am Monday... Minor changes to adjust the diurnal curve and
decrease pop through this aftn. High pressure offshore will slowly
push off to the east today as a strong cold front approaches from
the west. In between, a weak coastal trough will try to lift nw
onshore and bring a few showers, but guidance is not excited about
this potential. With forecast profiles continuing to show just
shallow moisture, have dropped pop to just schc for the grand strand
and coastal SE nc through this aftn. Otherwise, any precip is
expected to hold off until the front approaches late tonight.

Previous discussion below:
as of 234 am Monday... Subtle and brief mid level ridging will
give way to a southwest flow later today as a mid level cyclone
moves into the ohio valley. At the surface high pressure will
keep an increasingly moist southerly flow in place. There may be
a few isolated showers with the surge of warm and moist air
from midday onward but overall guidance has backed off this
activity a bit. The main cold front moves to the western areas
of the CWA by the end of the period and we have maintained the
good chance pops mostly for after midnight moving eastward in
time. Expect balmy temperatures today approaching 70 in some
areas and little cooling by Tuesday morning as some wind keeps
the boundary layer somewhat mixed.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 234 am Monday... Primary weather caption this period, 'wet
and mild Tuesday, turning cooler and drier Wednesday'. Showers
and perhaps a tstm, will be ongoing at the onset of the period,
daybreak Tuesday, and a very blustery and mild start to the day.

Minimums daybreak Tuesday, will elevate to values, that reflect
the normal daytime highs for late january, and dewpoints should
gradually rise to around 60 early Tuesday ahead of the front.

This may allow coastal sea fog to also be an ongoing hazard, as
the mild flow traverses the chilled inshore ssts. There appears
to be enough CAPE to warrant a slight chance of tstms mainly
Tuesday morning. Despite the cool marine layer, elevated, warm
air advection convection is possible, given the kinetic support
aloft. Mid-level lapse rates are mediocre, and this may serve to
limit convective-strength potential.

Clearing trends in wake of the pre-frontal convection, yet prior
to the caa, will allow a window of downslope trajectories
Tuesday afternoon in mild air, likely bringing many locals into
the 70s. Cold air advection on NW winds will bring lows in the
30s early Wednesday, with a seasonably cool and mostly sunny day
Wednesday, very near normal for january 24th.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 3 pm Sunday... The surface and upper air pattern will be
both progressive and amplifying through Saturday with the ridge
developing in the east. Once surface return flow is established
locally, we should start to see warmer temperatures. It appears
this happens on Saturday. Cloud cover and rain chances then
rise quickly on Sunday with the approach of the cold front and
strengthening upper trough from the west.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 12z... Rapidly moving cold front is still well to the west,
expected to move into the western portion of the CWA after midnight.

Convection is expected, thunder very isolated. Along the coast,
winds will become south southwest, a favorable direction for sea
fog. Visibilities may actually get lower than forecast, although
confidence is rather low.

Extended outlook...VFR. MVFR ifr lifr Mon evening early tue

Near term through tonight ...

as of 234 am Monday... Very light winds and meager seas
currently reside across the waters. Both will increase
methodically today and moreso tonight as a decent cold front
moves closer from the west. Expect winds of ten knots or less to
increase to 15-20 knots by early Tuesday (possibly a knot or
two higher for a couple of hours). Seas will increase from just
over one foot to 3-5 feet by Tuesday morning. For now do not
expect seas of six feet but it could be close for a couple of
hours. At a minimum a scec headline will be necessary this

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 234 am Monday... Tuesday will be a difficult marine day as
sw and W winds gust up to 25-30 kt, prior to a cold front
passage toward evening. This will require a small craft advisory
Tuesday, but it appears winds are strongest ahead of the front,
and in wake of the front Tuesday night and wed, a diminishing
wind trend can be expected, and thus a short-lived advisory.

Recent numerical wave guidance puts seas at 7 feet 20 miles
offshore Tuesday, from the S every 6-7 seconds. Additionally, a
few tstms are possible inshore, and more likely offshore closer
to the west wall of the gulf stream. If this were not enough,
inshore waters may face areas of sea fog Monday night and
Tuesday morning.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 3 pm Sunday... As a anticyclone approaches Thursday flow
veers to N then ne, possibly becoming light and variable for a
time Thursday evening or early Thursday night as it moves nearly
overhead. E or ese winds should then increase Friday as this
high begins to share a center with one moving off the new
england coast.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for amz250-

Synopsis... 8
near term... Shk jdw
short term... Mjc
long term... mbb
aviation... 43

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 8 mi59 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 1023.5 hPa
41108 23 mi67 min 48°F1 ft
WLON7 31 mi49 min 58°F 44°F1023.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 32 mi82 min E 1.9 50°F 1023 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 34 mi49 min 1026.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 37 mi49 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 48°F 49°F1024 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 38 mi68 min 46°F1 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 38 mi59 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 46°F1023.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi47 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 69°F1023.3 hPa58°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi72 minE 310.00 miFair55°F46°F74%1023.7 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC20 mi74 minN 07.00 miA Few Clouds55°F46°F72%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoSW9SW10SW9
2 days agoSW6SW10W9SW9SW8SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmW3SW3W4SW4W4W3CalmSW3W4W3CalmSW4SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Mon -- 05:26 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:30 AM EST     4.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:53 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:48 PM EST     4.01 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina
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Tubbs Inlet
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Mon -- 04:46 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:01 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.