Wednesday, March20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 6:49PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 2:29 AM MST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 200910
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
210 am mst Wed mar 20 2019

Warm and dry conditions will give way to more clouds and a slight
chance of rain as a weather disturbance crosses the area later today
into Thursday. Most lower desert locations will not see rain this
week and those who do should receive less than a tenth of an inch.

The best rain chances will be over the higher terrain north and east
of phoenix. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s over the
lower deserts will fall back into the lower 70s for Thursday and
Friday before warming back up over the weekend with 80s expected
again by Monday under high pressure.

Early this morning, an elongated, northwest to southeast oriented
trof could be seen approaching the california coast; this feature
was spreading a bit of mid and high cloud ahead of it and into
arizona. The trof will move into the area today and tonight and will
be composed of series of short waves, or lobes, that will lift
northeast and into the desert southwest bringing limited
precipitation to the lower deserts. Overall the passage of the low
will be accompanied by decent amounts of ascent and QG forcing; mid
level q convergence will be rather impressive across the areas today
and tonight. Despite the impressive upward forcing, including
effects of a cold front that will traverse the lower arizona deserts
tonight, moisture will be limited. A look at ivt forecasts shows no
consequential amounts of vapor transport, or rivers, moving into the
desert southwest with this system. Pwat values will remain modest,
generally near or below one-half inch. As a result, we expect little
precip today over the lower deserts, maybe a few showers over the
higher terrain of joshua tree national park. Main effects of the
approaching system today will be ushering in cooler air to the
western deserts, including far southeast california, as highs fall
into the middle 70s. South-central arizona, including phoenix, will
stay on the warm side today ahead of the approaching system and
front and phoenix should climb to around 83 degrees today under
increasingly cloudy skies.

As the primary short wave lobe pivots to the northeast and moves
across arizona tonight, the best rain chances with this event can be
expected; look for pops in the 30-40 percent ballpark across south-
central arizona from mid to late evening into the early morning
hours Thursday. Despite a general convective outlook for thunder
painted across the entire state today tonight, instability looks
very minimal over the deserts with meager cape; best threat for a
lightning strike is over the higher terrain east of phoenix this
evening. The modest pops in the phoenix area mesh with the expected
meager QPE tonight, most places will likely see below 0.05 inches
and latest GEFS plumes puts most members at or below 0.10. On
Thursday, in the wake of the passing short wave, forcing will
decrease across southern arizona; a closed low is forecast to move
across northern arizona behind the initial short wave but any rain
chances will mostly stay well north of phoenix and any instability
should remain over higher terrain areas of northern arizona. Look
for much cooler high temperatures behind the cold front Thursday;
the greater phoenix area will fall into the lower 70s with a high of
just 72 forecast at phoenix.

For the rest of the forecast period, Friday into early next week,
dry conditions are expected as higher pressure returns to the area.

Temperatures will not change much on Friday but the central deserts
will warm into the upper 70s over the weekend, and then into the 80s
early next week. As an upper ridge builds in early next week, highs
in the phoenix area are expected to climb into the upper 80s despite
a substantial amount of mainly high cloud spreading into the state
ahead of another trof developing along the west coast.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
an approaching weather system will lead to strengthening south and
southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Wednesday. This will
translate to the surface during the late morning and afternoon on
Wednesday with several hours worth of winds being south-southeast
to south- southwest along with gusts of 15-25 kts. Anticipate
directions being more distinctly southwest by late afternoon (with
continued gustiness 20-25kts). Cloud cover will generally consist
of sct- bkn altocumulus decks (bases near fl100) as well as
increasing cirrus with bases dipping below fl200 (but above fl150)
Wednesday afternoon.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
an approaching weather system will lead to strengthening south and
southwesterly flow aloft tonight and Wednesday. At the surface
near and east of the lower colorado river valley tonight and
Wednesday morning winds will be light (favoring southerly
directions) followed by southwesterly winds developing in the late
morning and early afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kts. Over
southeast california, anticipate southeasterly surface winds this
evening to transition to westerly after 06z. Speeds will increase
during the afternoon with gusts of 25-30 kts by late afternoon. As
for clouds, expect increasing cirrus with bases dipping below fl200
(but above fl150) Wednesday afternoon followed by a deck of
altocumulus with bases AOA fl080 by late afternoon evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Tuesday through Saturday:
a warm weather pattern will predominate through Wednesday before
a weather system moves through the area for the second half of the
week. Expect above normal highs to continue in the low-mid 80s
through Wednesday. Highs will then cool to the low-mid 70s by
Thursday with slight chances of precipitation moving into the
lower deserts and better chances expected for the the higher
elevations to the east and north where there is also a fair chance
of wetting rains. Min rh values in the mid to upper teens through
Wednesday will improve to greater than 20 percent beginning
Thursday. The next system will also bring breezy southerly winds
out west on Tuesday with gusty southwesterly winds spreading
throughout the region on Wednesday and lingering into Thursday.

Breezy conditions are expected again on Saturday as well. Good
overnight recovery will improve to excellent by Thursday.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Cb
aviation... Aj
fire weather... Sawtelle

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi38 minW 510.00 miFair65°F32°F29%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN3CalmSW4SW8SW4NW3N4CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS5SE10--S10S9SW7SW11S10SW9SW4SW6W5
1 day agoNE4SW3CalmNW4SE3W6SW4CalmCalmE6CalmE6----------------------N3
2 days agoS3NW3N6N9NW5CalmN6NE6NE7NE10NE9E11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.