Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 6:57PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 8:15 PM MST (03:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 282045
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
145 pm mst Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A pacific storm system will pull away from the southwest states
leaving tranquil warming conditions in its wake Wednesday and
Thursday. However, another weather system will move into arizona
later this week bringing another round of gusty winds and cooler
temperatures.

Discussion
The main core of a stout PV anomaly and deep trough axis has now
translated towards central new mexico this afternoon with an
objectively analyzed -24c h5 cold core situated very near far SE az.

In fact, 12z ktwc sounding sampled impressive 12dm h5 height falls
while -23c fell within the lowest 10th percentile for the end of
march (quite interesting as just a week ago we were constantly
talking about temperatures aloft near record levels). Meanwhile,
regional radar and satellite imagery indicated another weaker
vorticity center along eastern az/western new mexico border
descending into the trough base. This feature has tapped residual
midlevel moisture and pockets of SBCAPE through SRN gila county
invigorating sct showers/storms. This shower activity will tend to
dissipate and advect eastward with the loss of daytime heating and
the further downstream movement of the associated vorticity center.

Through far western az and southeast ca, though the sfc pressure
gradient was slowly weakening, sufficient vertical mixing has
partially tapped a 30-35kt h8 llj. This gradient and lower level jet
core will more rapidly evaporate after sunset allowing wind gusts to
promptly abate. Otherwise, a transient shortwave ridge will build
into the SW CONUS Wednesday and Thursday pushing temperatures back
into a slightly above normal category.

Models show yet another trough diving from the pacific northwest
into the forecast area Thursday night and Friday. This will cause a
rather sharp cooling trend Friday with highs 10f-15f cooler than
Thursday. This transition and approaching deep cold core trough will
increase pressure gradients and drive another round of windy
conditions, especially in SE california and the colorado river
valley. Although at this point, winds may not be quite as strong and
gusty as experienced in the past 24 hours though it may be close. As
with the current trough, the best chance of precipitation will
remain in gila county with amounts remaining rather light.

All major global circulation models agree that this trough will
linger through Saturday but major differences arise beyond that.

Because of this, there is very low confidence in the forecast for
early next week as each one of the models has their own unique
solution. For now, have gone with a blended approach and have kept
temperatures near seasonal normals.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
breezy winds this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kts at times will
diminish early this evening. Confidence in wind directions tonight,
especially at kphx, is not high as some variable winds are likely
and may end up out of the north to northeast sometime tonight. Aside
from the winds, no aviation impacts through the period.

Southeast california/southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
breezy to windy conditions with gusts to 25 kts will gradually
diminish into the evening hours. Northwesterly winds at kblh will
remain elevated through the overnight and become gusty again mid to
late Wednesday morning. Skies to remain clear through the period.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Thursday through Monday:
the weather pattern will remain relatively active across the desert
southwest through early next week, though in general precipitation
is not expected. Only exception will be in the higher terrain well
north and east of phoenix. Main weather impact will be breezy to
windy conditions, which are expected to redevelop Thursday and
Friday as the next low pressure system moves through the region.

With rhs generally remaining below 15 percent, elevated fire danger
will again be a possibility for a few hours across southeastern
california, particularly Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, the low
pressure system will likely move through arizona Saturday, bringing
below normal temperatures along with a general decrease in wind and
an increase in moisture. High pressure will follow for Sunday and
Monday, resulting in a warming trend and a return to above normal
temperatures. Otherwise, little to no changes were needed in the
morning update to capture hourly trends.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures this week.

Psr watches/warnings/advisories
Az... Red flag warning until 7 pm mst this evening for azz131-132.

Ca... Red flag warning until 7 pm pdt this evening for caz231.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov/phoenix
discussion... Mo/wilson
aviation... Kuhlman
fire weather... Hirsch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi23 minNNW 1210.00 miFair74°F16°F11%1012.4 hPa

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW15
G21
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W10CalmN3NW7NW11NW12NW13NW17
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1 day agoSW5W4SW7S3W3SE5SW4S6SE6SW3CalmN3SE5SW3S63CalmW9
G18
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W12NW13NW14N15NW16
2 days agoSW5W6SW4W54NW4W8Calm3NW53W3N9N8NW5--6CalmS7--SE7S6E4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.