Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Utting, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:44 PM MST (19:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Utting, AZ
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location: 33.95, -113.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 171336
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
636 am mst Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain stationed over the area through early next
week resulting in temperatures near or just below the seasonal
average. Dry conditions and light winds will also prevail through
Monday, before a mostly dry storm system moves through the region
during the middle part of next week.

Discussion
Early this morning, dry west northwest flow aloft was in place
across arizona as seen by latest plot and RAOB data. IR imagery
depicted variable amounts of high cloud moving through the flow but
overall skies were mostly clear over the deserts. Surface dewpoints
remained rather low, ranging from the teens to low 30s over the
lower deserts. For the next few days there will be very little
change in the forecast, as flat upper ridging and dry west to
northwest flow aloft will persist. Don't expect much in terms of
temperature changes day to day with readings remaining near seasonal
normals as desert highs stay largely in the mid 70s.

The first shot at any weather across the area will be next Tuesday;
operational GFS and ECMWF as well as GEFS ensembles consistently
paint the picture of an upper low off the california coast that will
rapidly open up and move inland across southern california and
arizona on Tuesday. This is advertised as a very dry system; most of
the moisture will remain aloft and above the 700mb level. We will
see increasing mid and high clouds but precip chances - even over
the higher terrain - will stay negligible despite a modest amount of
qg forcing as the low moves across. The low will do little to cool
us down; highs will stay in the mid 70s over much of the desert
despite the increasing cloud cover.

For the latter half of next week, conditions become slightly more
unsettled but overall we should continue to see a rather dry pattern
as fast moving, progressive zonal flow affects the western conus.

Model guidance - especially the GEFS ensemble members - have trouble
resolving the various short waves moving inland and through the area
in this fast flow. Best bet at the moment is for a weak short wave
to pass through the state on Thursday, bringing a slight chance of a
shower to the higher terrain mainly east of phoenix. Otherwise we
will mostly see variable mid high clouds during the period and
temperatures trending slightly downward with time. By next Friday
many of the lower deserts will see highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s with phoenix expected to reach 71 degrees. For now uncertainty
is the word with the latter portion of the extended forecast.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl...

southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
very weak weather disturbances embedded in light westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft to continue to push sct-bkn high cirrus
cloud decks over the entire region through the TAF period. Strong
high pressure at the sfc to keep winds quite light through the taf
period, with directions mainly following typical diurnal trends.

Extended periods of light variable winds are likely to occur at all
of the TAF sites as well.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
for the most part, dry westerly flow aloft will dominate the
desert southwest over the next 5 days keeping conditions dry.

There will be a couple of fast moving weather systems pass through
the districts but they will bring little if any chance for
precipitation; the system on Thursday may be a bit wetter and
could result in a few showers over the higher terrain east of
phoenix but little else. High temperatures will fluctuate slightly
day to day but generally remain near seasonal normals with desert
highs staying in the low to mid 70s for the most part. Look for
minimum rh values in the deserts mostly 15 to 25 percent through
Tuesday, then climbing into the 20 to 35 percent ballpark later in
the period, as the stronger weather system moves through the
area. Winds will be on the light side each day only weakly
following typical diurnal tendencies.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Cb
aviation... Percha
fire weather... Kuhlman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Blythe, Blythe Airport, CA50 mi53 minSE 310.00 miFair64°F27°F25%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from BLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS4S3N5NW4N6NW4N5CalmN5NW3NE5N5CalmCalmCalmCalm3S3SE3
1 day agoCalmCalmE5E4CalmS4SW3CalmW3SW5W3N4NW4NE4CalmW5S6SW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW5
2 days agoCalmE4E3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmN5NW6W5NW5CalmN7NW3SW6SW4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Yuma, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.