Monday, July24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:22PM Monday July 24, 2017 4:55 PM EDT (20:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:38AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 334 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt or less...becoming se 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..E winds 10 kt or less. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..E winds 10 kt or less...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 334 Pm Edt Mon Jul 24 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will remain off the coast through the middle of the week. A cold front will drop southeastward tonight and stall across the eastern carolinas just inland from the coast Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will finally dissipate Thursday followed by weak high pressure for the end of the week. Another cold front will approach on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241930
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
330 pm edt Mon jul 24 2017

Synopsis
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will raise the risk for heavy
rainfall and possible localized flooding into mid week. A cold
front will approach from the north and should slip into the area
later Tuesday night and on Wednesday before stalling and then
dissipating by Thursday. After a brief hot and dry period thurs
day into Friday. The arrival of a stronger cold front this
weekend will bring numerous thunderstorms back into the eastern
carolinas.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 230 pm Monday... Low cloud deck has played havoc with high
temperatures today and delayed destabilization. The area of clouds
will become increasingly scattered finally allowing parts of the
forecast area to warm up. Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s
and the precipitable water is above 2 inches. SPC mesoanalysis shows
cape above 3000 j kg but lifting mechanisms remain weak limited
associated with the sea breeze front and inland trough. Will
maintain chance pops through the afternoon and into the evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again during Tuesday
with weak trough aloft and sea breeze inland trough providing lift.

Storm motion will be weaker tomorrow and the risk for localized
flooding in a high precipitable water air-mass will increase as a
result. Followed a blend of mav met temperatures for tonight and
with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s the heat
index will be around 100 to 103 during Tuesday. Lastly, not
expecting water levels to exceed minor coastal flood thresholds at
downtown wilmington tonight. Latest etss takes the gauge to just
below coastal flood advisory criteria.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Mid to upper trough and frontal boundary
remain strung out and become nearly stationary across the
southeast through the period as high pressure reaches down from
the north behind it. This will leave a gradient of very moist
air to the south running most likely right through our forecast
area from sc east to northeast into the atlantic. Pcp water
values will be greater than 2 inches to south of this boundary
and less than 1.5 inches to the north. The GFS is less bullish
and maintains a wetter more unsettled forecast for wed, as
compared to other models showing boundary farther south and a
drier forecast. Overall, would expect a greater chc of stronger
storms to the south and east over the waters, but will maintain
higher pops across most of NE sc up to the CAPE fear coast with
gradient of lower pops as you head N to nw. The drier air may
reach into most of nc to produce a sunnier forecast with lower
end pops, but overall expect potential for shwrs tstms but
confidence is low as to exactly where this boundary will be
located. Models also showing potential for low pressure to
develop along this boundary on Wed which could also push pcp
farther south into local forecast area. If this occurs, qpf
could be on the higher side. For now will show a trend to lower
end pcp and brighter skies end of day Wed but will show
potential for convective development through Wed aftn. The
weaker steering flow will also point toward greater potential
for slow moving storms and therefore higher end QPF which could
lead to localized flooding issues. It could end up with two
different atmospheric conditions with one to the NW and N being
drier mid levels with threat of gusty winds in storms while to
the south, expect mainly heavier rain. Temps will be in the mid
70s tues night and up toward 90 on wed. As drier air moves in
late Wed into early thurs, dewpoint temps will drop a few
degrees allowing for overnight lows to drop to the lower to mid
70s on Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Longwave trough which has affected the eastern
conus for what seems like most of the summer will re-intensify this
weekend after a brief period of warm and dry weather on Friday.

Front will dissipate across the area Thursday with warm westerly
flow developing aloft. This will dry the column out on Thursday, and
while isolated tstms will be likely, coverage will be less than
earlier in the week and highs will climb towards 90. On Friday, waa
drives 850mb temps towards 20c, and convective coverage will be even
more limited despite highs climbing into the 90s with heat index
values once again rising towards 105. Eastern trough re-loads
beginning Saturday driving another cold front into the eastern
carolinas. This front will become aligned parallel to the flow
through the wknd and into early next week as an anomalous cutoff
digs towards ga. Deep moist advection, upper diffluence, and pwats
over 2 inches all suggest periods of heavy rain and tstms Saturday
through Monday as more unsettled weather plagues the region. The
benefit to the forecasted rainfall is that temps will remain at or
below climo, mid to upr 80s, the latter half of the extended.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... Sct-v-bkn low clouds are progressing across the area
with convection initially isolated to widely scattered. Expect the
clouds to become increasingly scattered after 19-20z with slightly
better chances for convection through approximately 02z. Tempo MVFR
vsbys possible, especially at kflo and klbt overnight with periods
of clouds expected again during Tuesday with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are likely in numerous
showers and thunderstorms through wed. Less chance of convection
by Thursday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 230 pm Monday... Trough across the inland carolinas with
bermuda high pressure will maintain a southwesterly fetch across
the waters tonight into Tuesday. However, the fetch will weaken
as the inland trough shifts eastward with a weaker pressure
gradient expected over the adjacent coastal waters. In the meantime
winds of 15-20 knots will prevail, especially away from the coast
tonight with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Plan on continuing the
small craft should exercise caution headline through the afternoon.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... A front will drop south and should reach
into the waters by Wed morning. This boundary will remain in the
vicinity producing light and variable winds through much of the
period, although initially the winds will be SW up to 10 to 15
kts ahead of the front into early tues night. Once the front
drops south overnight tues into Wed the winds will turn around
to the NE and should back to the E through wed, but this is all
dependent on where the boundary ends up. Either way, expect seas
to diminish through Wed with seas up to 3 to 4 ft tues eve and
down less than 3 ft Wed aftn into Wed eve. This front will
produce an increased chc of shwrs tstms through much of the
period.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... High pressure offshore will intensify through
Friday before weakening again in response to a cold front dropping
down from the north. SW winds around this surface high will slowly
increase to around 15 kts during Friday before weakening and then
shifting to the W NW late on Saturday as the front encroaches on the
waters. Seas will be formed by a SE swell as well as an amplifying sw
wind wave through Friday, with significant seas building from 2 ft
Thursday to 3-4 ft late Friday into Saturday. Seas will fall slowly
late in the period as the winds ease and shift offshore.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Rgz
long term... Jdw
aviation... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 9 mi115 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi47 min SW 14 G 18 81°F 82°F1013.2 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi37 min 1012.5 hPa
41108 34 mi55 min 80°F4 ft
WLON7 39 mi37 min 88°F 86°F1012.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 42 mi70 min WSW 5.1 89°F 1014 hPa79°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi37 min SW 9.9 G 13 87°F 81°F1011.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi47 min SSW 12 G 18 82°F 82°F1013.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi56 min 82°F3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi62 minSSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F77°F80%1013.6 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi70 minSSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F66%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS22
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SW8W6S6SW10S10SW14SW16W8SW10W7W5SW10W10W3W5SW10W9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Mon -- 03:51 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:24 AM EDT     5.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:53 PM EDT     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     6.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.41.90.6-0.3-0.501.334.45.25.24.53.31.90.5-0.4-0.7-0.11.33.14.85.96.25.6

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:32 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:28 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:41 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:50 PM EDT     6.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.51.90.5-0.3-0.30.51.93.24.4554.43.21.80.5-0.4-0.60.31.83.44.85.86.15.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.