Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:09PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:39 AM EST (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:38PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 932 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 3 ft every 9 seconds. Isolated showers this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers. Widespread fog.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers. Widespread fog.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely with isolated tstms.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 932 Am Est Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure offshore will maintain moderate S and sw winds, until a cold front crosses the coast Monday, bringing winds around to the N and ne both Monday and Tuesday. Patchy sea fog remains a possibility as well. The high pressure will move offshore by Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 241534
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1034 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, as
mild southerly winds spread across the carolinas, temperatures
a bit cooler at the beaches. Isolated showers will dot the area
this weekend. Good rain chances will arrive Sunday night and
Monday, as a cold front crosses the coast, bringing cooler, but
still above normal temperatures early next week. A warming trend
will unfold through mid-week, as a strong low pressure system
passes to the northwest. Cooling will arrive late in the week,as
a cold front sweeps off the coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 1034 am Saturday... Cumulus congestus underway, having
transitioned from low-based early morning stratus and fog in
many places, diurnal convection process gearing up inland now.

Serious dry capping remains aloft, but it does appear, enough
moisture is present to trip off a zone of afternoon isolated
showers co-located with strengthening, sea-breeze induced
convergence. This to be geographically positioned from the
interior of of georgetown and horry counties, to columbus and
northern brunswick county, to interior pender county. Through
late morning, central brunswick and new hanover counties may see
a brief shower as convergence streets continue to prevail.

Record maximum temperatures today include, ilm 81 in 1982, cre
78 in 1996, and flo 82 in 1962. We are forecasting at present,
only flo to tie its record. Late tonight, isolated marine
showers may edge onshore along the coast and CAPE fear.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 330 am Saturday... Just 1 more day of 80+ degree highs and
then summer is over, and back to reality with temps
transitioning back to near normal for late february.

Models indicate the break down of the upper ridging thats been
supplying the fa with summer-like conditions. Successive
mid-level S ws are progged to wear down and suppress the upper
ridge as they move and track to the northeast. This will also
allow a frontal boundary thats been plaguing the central u.S. To
finally push ese then temporarily stall across or just east of
the fa for Monday due to it's parallel alignment to the flow
aloft. Look for widely scattered showers well ahead of the sfc
cold front Sunday. With limited cape, 1st inclination was to
keep thunder at bay, but given our summer-like conditions, will
include isolated thunder. Pcpn will become more widespread
Sunday night as the sfc front moves closer and temporarily
stalls across or just south of the ilm cwa. Have indicated
likely pops for Monday. Once again, limited CAPE to exist with
the NAM being more generous, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rain. The fa lies in the right rear
quadrant of the 300mb upper jet which will result in favorable
uvvs. Once again, limited CAPE to exist, with the NAM being
more generous, and as a result, will include isolated thunder
within the stratiform light rains. A positively tilted mid-
level upper trof will finally jump-start the sfc front and push
it off to well south and east of the fa during Monday night.

Pcpn will end Monday evening the latest, followed by some caa
with residual moisture in the form of clouds

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... A slow moving cold front is forecast
to come through on Monday. The surface boundary will be
accompanied by a dry wnw mid level flow. Normally this is not
conducive for significant rainfall and Monday appears to be no
different. Tuesday will be the one day that high pressure wedges
in from the north behind the front. By Wednesday the high moves
offshore and return flow gets underway. Models are not in
agreement regarding the pace at which this leads to cloudiness
and rain chance. Will show a gradual trend through Wednesday
into Wednesday night as usually with moisture advection slower
solutions tend to be better ones. A more substantial cold front
arrives late Thursday or Friday. Guidance varies considerably
with the pattern aloft casting uncertainty regarding rain
prospects with this stronger boundary.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 12z... Abundant low level moisture persists over the region
with stratus fog, not quite as dense as previous nights due to an
increasing southerly wind. Some showers at present are passing just
to the east of ilm. More showers are possible later today, but they
should not pose much of a threat to aviation. Tonight, an increasing
but still low chance for convection.

Extended outlook... Approaching cold front will bring increasing
chances for showers and MVFR Sunday and Monday.VFR Tuesday.

Showers possible Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1034 am Saturday... Seas 3 feet every 9 seconds expected
today into tonight. Maybe up to 4 ft well offshore, but the
longer periods will make for low steepness. No tstms through
tonight, but expect isolated showers and patches of sea fog at
times. S gusts to 17 kt inshore between 2pm and 5 pm.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 330 am Saturday... Ahead of the cold front, looking at sw
winds increasing to 15 to occasionally 20 kt by midday and
continuing well into Sunday night before it's passage or it's
temporary stall. Significant seas will build to 3 to 5 ft most
locations and combining it with the wind field, scec conditions
will be met. Looking at increasing coverage of showers late
Sunday and Sunday night. After the passage of the cold front
early mon, pcpn will transition to stratiform light rains. For
mon thru Mon night, and after the cfp, winds will veer to the
w to nw, then N to NE Monday night. The CAA surge lags well
behind the front, and should affect the local waters Monday
night with 15 to 20 kt speeds. Significant seas may temporarily
drop back to 2 to 4 ft Monday but should see 3 to 5 ft again mon
night. The ese ground swell at 9+ second periods will affect the
fa thruout this period. Local wind driven waves will aid in
pushing overall seas to once again scec thresholds Mon night.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Frontal passage on Monday will lead to a
shift from W to NW winds. This front will be weak and so not
expecting any surge of high pressure, cold air, or gusty winds.

High pressure behind the front does not drive very far south as
it progresses off the coast to our north heading into Tuesday.

This turns winds to NE and then E with no significant change in
wind speeds. The onshore flow direction however will allow for
slightly larger seas. No headlines are planned at this time.

Wind and waves may build at the end of the period or just beyond
with the approach of the next front, which will be much
stronger.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Colby
near term... Colby
short term... Dch
long term... Iii
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 9 mi118 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi92 min W 3.9 G 3.9 61°F 63°F1024.8 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi52 min 1028.2 hPa
41108 34 mi70 min 59°F3 ft
WLON7 39 mi52 min 72°F 61°F1024.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi52 min S 6 G 7 64°F 57°F1024.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi71 min 59°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi92 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 62°F 58°F1024.6 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi47 minSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds71°F66°F84%1024.9 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi65 minSSW 810.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE7S6SE6S9SE7S8S7S8S5S6S4S5SW7SW9SW6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW5SW5SW9SW11
1 day agoS8S9S9S7S9S8S6S6S7S7S53SW4CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoS5S6S7S8S8S8S8S7S6S8S9S7S5S3S4S8
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for Sunset Beach Bridge, North Carolina
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Sunset Beach Bridge
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Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:11 AM EST     4.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:47 PM EST     4.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.44.44.94.743.12.11.20.60.30.51.12.13.244.23.83210.3-0.100.8

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, north end, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:10 AM EST     4.87 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:39 PM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:12 PM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.74.54.94.74.13.12.11.20.60.40.81.72.73.544.13.72.921.10.3-0.10.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.