Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:21PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 325 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt overnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Isolated tstms. Showers.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, then 3 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 325 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southerly winds ahead of a cold front will shift to an offshore direction early Tuesday as a trough moves through ahead of the main front. Cooler air will be ushered in through the midweek yielding north to northwesterly flow.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232344
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
744 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will approach from the west today and slow,
finally moving completely offshore Tuesday afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front with
the possibility for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
this evening and tonight. In the wake of the front, dry and
cool air is expected through Thursday as canadian high pressure
takes hold. A warming trend begins Friday. Shower chances
increase Saturday as a weak area of low pressure develops ahead
of a second cold front.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Monday... Moisture advecting into the area from the
southwest as evident by the roughly 10f difference in dewpoint
between ilm and gge. As surface wind veers slightly this evening
this richer moisture should manage to cover more of the area.

Light rain moving in from the southwest as well indicative of
fairly weak ascent within the warm sector so far. Later this
evening into tonight this will change however as weak pva
impinges upon the area while low level jet ramps up to 45kt at
925mb. Mid level height falls largely pass us by to the north
but the low level lift may get slightly bolstered aloft by the
left exit region of a 200mb jet developing tonight over florida.

The back edge of the precipitation shield moving into western
zones this evening will be associated with a fairly sharp pre-
frontal wind shift that should offer strong convergence. This
surface based ascent then to interact with the low level jet to
yield fairly shallow and thus rather lightning-deprived line of
convection. The strength of the low level wind fields will offer
a damaging wind threat with the line. Isolated tornados will
also be hard to rule out due to SRH being maximized in the lower
levels even as lapse rates and thus instability remain meager.

Cool advection lags considerably behind the wind-shift though
dewpoints may start dropping Tuesday afternoon temperatures will
still warm up into the upper 70s, a solid category above
climatology.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Very quiet conditions will settle into
the area as a deep full latitude mid level trough moves from the
tennessee valley to just offshore through the period.

Precipitable waters dip to near one quarter of an inch by late
in the period. At the surface a somewhat blustery pressure
gradient will reside across the area and this is reflected N the
guidance. There may be some decoupling early Thursday morning
allowing temperatures to possibly drop to the coolest readings
of the season in some areas with lower to mid 40s area wide.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Very cool temperatures start the extended as
canadian high pressure settles across the area before pushing
offshore Friday. Temps Thursday will likely be about 5 degrees below
climo before recovering to more seasonable temps Friday as the
surface high shifts offshore. Moisture will begin to increase
Saturday on increasing southerly winds as a pre-frontal airmass
returns ahead of a deep mid-level trough pushing through the ms vly.

This will drive a cold front across the area Saturday night into
Sunday. Ahead of this feature, a weak area of low pressure may
develop and move just off the coast, and while total column
moisture remains confined below 700mb, showers are possible late
Saturday through Sunday morning associated with this feature.

This front will bring the potential for the coldest air of the
season behind it, as 850mb progs drop below 0c and extended mos
numbers feature values as much as 10 degrees below climo early
next week.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 23z... Latest radar showing precipitation moving up the sc
coast soon to impact kmyr and kcre. Light rain already at kflo
and klbt with nothing yet at kilm. Forecast for the overnight
period still a bit tricky with vad wind profile showing some
veering between 8k and 17k with 35 to 45 kt winds. As front
pushes to the east storm motion is moving all cells to the NE at
greater than 30 mph. Impacts will affect all terminals through
the evening overnight period with high confidence in MVFR and
possible ifr conditions in vsby and ceiling. Have mentioned tstm
across the inland terminals but not to confident at the coastal
terminals although cannot totally ruled out but will not
mention at terminals.

Gusty sse to S winds will prevail overnight until FROPA and
will mention low ceilings and vsby across klbt and kflo with
fog as winds abate behind the front. Weather will improve from
west to east across the terminals. Concern might be for some
wind shear around 03z near the coast but will keep an eye on
this as vad winds are pretty uniform with the wind speeds from
the sfc up to about 4-5k. Main concern for all terminals will be
between 00z and 06z before condition slowly improve. After
25 15zVFR conditions across the region.

Extended outlook... VFR Wednesday through Friday. Slight chance for
showers Saturday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Prefrontal warm sector to only increase
in strength through most of the period as surface boundary
approaches from the west and low level jet develops. The fairly
sharp wind shift is slated for around daybreak Tuesday or soon
thereafter. Wind speeds may decrease somewhat quickly with the
wind shift it throws out wind alignment in the vertical. The
current small craft advisory is currently posted through Tuesday
afternoon and am not planning any changes at this time.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Northwest winds of 10-15 knots and on
occasion 15-20 knots will prevail across the area through the
period. The persistence will be provided by a very deep and slow
mid level trough at 500mb that trudges across the CONUS from
the mississippi valley. Significant seas will be mostly 2-4 feet
with the higher values across the outer waters with the
offshore flow.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... High pressure moving overhead the waters
Thursday into Friday will create gusty north winds early
Thursday before weakening to less than 10 kts and shifting
slowly to NE Friday, and then E on Saturday. A secondary front
approaching very late Saturday may cause winds to uptick again
at the end of the period. The gusty north winds early will keep
seas elevated at 3-4 ft the first half of Thursday, before
falling back to 1-3 ft Fri and sat. The increased winds late
Saturday may cause seas to begin to rise again at that time.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Tuesday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Jdw
near term... mbb
short term... Shk
long term... Jdw
aviation... Mac
marine... Jdw mbb shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 14 mi102 min SSW 4.1 75°F 1013 hPa72°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi58 min 74°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 17 mi79 min SSE 16 G 25 76°F 74°F1013.5 hPa
41108 17 mi27 min 74°F7 ft
WLON7 19 mi39 min 73°F1012.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi39 min 76°F1013.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi79 min S 14 G 19 76°F 74°F1012.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi79 min SSE 19 G 27 77°F 76°F1013.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 38 mi27 min SSE 23 G 31 79°F 78°F1013.1 hPa (-1.5)72°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi42 minSSE 10 G 1510.00 miFair76°F70°F84%1013.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi34 minSSE 11 G 2210.00 miFair77°F70°F79%1013 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE4E3E4E3E3SE5SE4SE4SE6SE6SE6SE9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmN3NE3NE6E5E6E7SE6E6NE6E6E3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5E3E3E4E4E4E3E5E4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Federal Point, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Federal Point
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Mon -- 05:01 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:33 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:47 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.8321.20.60.30.61.52.73.64.14.34.33.82.921.20.60.512.133.53.8

Tide / Current Tables for Bald Head, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Bald Head
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:49 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:58 PM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.50.80.40.61.62.93.94.54.84.94.43.42.41.50.80.61.12.13.23.94.24.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.