Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:01 PM EST (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 3:26AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1144 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
This afternoon..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E early, then becoming se late. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft in the evening, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 1144 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift offshore today. A weak cold front will cross the waters early Friday, followed by a more potent storm system Saturday night into Sunday. Arctic high pressure will follow Sunday night thru Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171653
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1155 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A few light showers will pass over the area tonight as low
pressure skirts to the north followed by a weak cold front
on Friday. This weekend a stronger low pressure system will
pass to the north and west, bringing a warming trend, then
showers on Sunday as a strong cold front crosses the coast.

Cold and dry air will follow early next week as canadian high
pressure dips into the region.

Near term through tonight
As of 1149 am Thursday... Warming has lifted the fog, and
satellite data suggest a decreasing cloud trend to mostly sunny
or clear during the afternoon, before a few -showers tonight.

As of 1027 am Thursday... Dense fog advisory new hanover and
pender counties until noon today. The cold ground, has aided in
areas of dense fog lingering along the north coast this morning
as milder and moist ocean air, and low stratus impinge the
coastal interior, and weak isentropic lift is in assistance as
well with westerly flow aloft. Diurnal warming should begin to
mix out this entrenched feature.

As of 934 am Thursday... Adjustments include, lingering areas of
mist along the north coast interior this morning based on
reports and a few observations. High clouds will precede a weak
cold front today, which will suppress warmth, and based on cloud
opacity upstream have lowered maximums 3-4 degrees at most
locations today.

As of 345 am Thursday... A fast moving zonal mid level flow is
in place and will remain so the next 24 hours. A brief push of
slightly cooler air from the north will keep temperatures from
making much improvement from Wednesday under partly to mostly
sunny skies. A mid level system will move across tonight with
some showers possible from about 00 through about 06 utc. After
some fog todays highs will be in the middle 50s. Lows Friday
morning will be in the lower 40s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 345 am Thursday... Exiting cluster of weak mid-level S w
trofs to the east of the fa will start the day Friday. Any pcpn
associated with these S W trofs will have ended at the start of
this period. Models keep a rather low amplitude upper ridge
across the fa Friday into early Sat with no wx expected except
for some residual clouds Fri and radiational type fog Friday
night. It's during this time that the next mid-level S W trof
will emerge from the rockies after having pushed onshore from
the pacific ocean during thu.

This next mid-level trof is a bit more vigorous then the last
few that affected the fa. It's progged to increase in amplitude
as it reaches the south central u.S. By early sat. And even
further increasing it's amplitude as it tries to become a full
latitude upper trof by Sun morning. This to occur if it's able
to hook up with a northern stream midlevel trof rotating around
the semi-permanent hudson bay upper low.

The increasing amplitude will also result in decent moisture
tapping of the gulf of mexico and the atlantic Sat into sun.

For Sat into Sat night, a warm front develops north of the fa
early Sat and is lifted further north and further away from the
fa during sat. The fa in essence starts out in the warm sector
ahead of the approaching and intensifying sfc low. Pcpn chances
for light showers immediately associated with the warm front
will remain north of the fa during sat. The main threat for pcpn
across the fa will occur Sat night with areas to widespread light
to moderate showers and have indicated categorical chances. Did
not include thunder at this time but it remains possible given
the strong dynamics and wind fields aloft. Instability will be
in question, which usually is during winter time convection.

Stayed closer to a model consensus for MAX min temps thru the
period.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 352 pm Wednesday... Warming temperature trend prevails
this weekend, bringing maximums well into the 60s, about 10
degrees above mid january normals. Pre-frontal, warm air
advection Saturday will transition into frontal passage Sunday,
in morning and off the coast in early afternoon. Will retain
slight chance of a TSTM Sunday because the low-level convergence
and dynamical support aloft should work in concert, and for what
it may contribute, near maximum diurnal warmth in FROPA closer
to the coast. In question remains available instability.

Frigid air invades again as canadian high pressure swoops into
the carolinas. As the cold high approaches, we probably should
expect widespread 20s next Tuesday morning, isolated teens.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Wednesday
As of 18z... Any stratus will have dissipated by TAF time. A weak
disturbance moves through the region tonight. Models are in
reasonable agreement in having very light scattered showers. Low
confidence on ceilings and visibilities however and went with
predominately MVFR conditions. Improving conditions on Friday but
probably remaining cloudy.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR until Saturday and into Sunday when
MVFR conditions are possible in showers Saturday and due to cigs
Sunday.VFR Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 934 am Thursday... Low amplitude long period E waves
continue to spread ashore, co-mingled with NE waves 1-2 feet
every 3 seconds. This to prevail today, veering to e-ese wind-
waves late.

As of 345 am Thursday... Winds will remain relatively light for
the most part through the period. A bit of a northeast surge
this morning will quickly give way to more of an onshore flow
this afternoon with a slightly better defined southwest flow by
early Friday morning. Speeds will be ten knots or less with the
exception early Friday when an increase of 10-15 knots is
expected. Significant seas remain on the minimal side with 1-2
feet and possibly a few three footers late.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 345 am Thursday... A weak cold front will try to drop
southward during Fri and at this time will only indicate the
cape fear area as it's furtherest southward extent. This will be
followed by weak but temporary high pressure Fri night into sat.

The sfc pg will remain rather relaxed Fri into Sat with wind
directions the primary problem. Seas Fri into Sat will remain
in the 1 to 2 foot range with dominating ene swell at 9 to 10
second periods.

For Sat aftn thru Sat night, unfavorable marine conditions will
develop rather quickly. A warm front, just north of the local
waters early sat, will lift further north and away from the
region. This places the area waters in the warm sector with se
to S winds increasing Sat aftn and evening, becoming S to SW sat
night. The sfc pg to start out quite relaxed early sat,
tightening thruout Sat and especially during Sat night into
sun. Have indicated SCA criteria windspeeds Sat night into sun.

Significant seas will follow suit with short period wind-waves
dominating late Sat into sun. Will peak the sig. Seas in the 5
to 9 foot range, occurring at the end of this short term period.

Sea fog is a question mark at this time, and if it were to
occur, Sat into Sat night would be the time-line.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 352 pm Wednesday... Worsening marine conditions can be
expected beginning late in the day as a strong cold front
approaches the waters, and SE winds mount to 20-25 knots
Saturday night. As balmy gulf stream air encounters cool inshore
waters, we may see sea fog Sunday along with rough and hazardous
wave action. For Sunday, s-ssw waves of 4-8 ft every 8-9
seconds will dominate waters. Sw-w winds Sunday will turn to nw
Sunday night as cold air dives in, and advisories flags will
continue.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Shk mjc
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi54 min E 7.8 G 12 48°F 54°F1026.1 hPa
41108 21 mi32 min 54°F2 ft
WLON7 25 mi32 min 1025.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi32 min NNE 9.9 G 13 1026.2 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi54 min ENE 9.7 G 16 52°F 55°F1026.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi32 min 54°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi32 min NE 3.9 G 7.8 56°F 67°F1026 hPa42°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi54 min ENE 7.8 G 14 54°F 59°F1026.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi82 minNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F44°F89%1027.1 hPa

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SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3N4N3NE3NE4NE3
1 day agoN5NW10NW8NW4
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NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4W10
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2 days agoN10N8N8N7N5NW6N5N6N6N3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Thu -- 03:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:32 AM EST     4.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:01 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:55 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:04 PM EST     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.73.14.24.84.94.33.32.10.8-0.1-0.5-0.10.81.933.843.72.91.70.5-0.5-1-0.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
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Thu -- 03:26 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:27 AM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:13 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:50 PM EST     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:24 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.82.13.34.24.84.74.33.42.41.50.70.40.51.32.43.33.943.732.11.10.3-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.