Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:27AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 303 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 303 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across the waters and persist into the beginning of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201842
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
242 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated in the days ahead,
as an upper ridge builds from the west. The ridge will bring hot
and humid conditions through the weekend. Rain chances will
increase early next week as a surface trough deepens inland.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 pm Thursday... NVA and height rises associated by the
retreating upper low working together with ambient subsidence
associated with offshore convection to keep the much of the
coastal plain not only rain-free but also hampering cu
development. The area is shaping up for a muggy night with a
continuation of light winds. Any patches of fog will only be of
aviation concern as visibilities below 5sm do not appear in the
cards. Tomorrow differs from today in that the aforementioned
sources of downward vertical motion will be no more. With higher
temps aloft and weak surface warm advection afternoon temps
will soar into the mid 90s coast and upper 90s inland. There was
some talk of a heat advisory but boundary layer hydrolapse
rates seem to call for dewpoints that will fall during peak
heating and preclude the 105f apparent temperatures needed
across most of the area. This idea may be revisited by the
evening and overnight crew however as the WRF in particular is
less enamored with the idea.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 3 pm Thursday... Deep layer high pressure will dominate
the conditions through the short term period. Mid level moisture
will be lacking and most of the guidance is keeping the area
dry through the period. Temperatures will be several degrees
above normal most notably with Saturdays highs with upper 90s in
the most northwest inland zones. We will once again be on the
cusp of a heat advisory depending on the dry air mixing down in
the afternoon which may modify the apparent temperature just
enough to preclude the 105 clip needed for three hours.

Overnight lows remain steamy in the middle to upper 70s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... Long term will be marked by gradually
decreasing temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation
as ridging at the surface and aloft breaks down and a cold front
approaches and then moves across the eastern carolinas. A
consensus of guidance has the front stalling in our vicinity by
late Tuesday or Wednesday, where it will linger into Thursday.

Above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday will drop back down
to or below climo for the remainder of the long term. Tuesday
looks to be the best day for convection, with deep moisture in
place in advance of the impending front.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Light and variable winds in the very near term save for
a more decidedly onshore flow at coastal terminals behind the
seabreeze. Thunderstorms will be isolated and tend to stay west of
the area through the period.VFR for most if not the entire taf
cycle as well. The exception may be pockets of MVFR over interior nc
counties between ilm and lbt, possibly affecting the latter.

Extended outlook...VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
Monday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Winds have
been light and somewhat variable today but a southwesterly
direction will gradually come to dominate through the period.

The reason being the pressure gradient-disturbing upper low will
retrograde adequately for the atlantic high to re-assert
itself. Spectral plots show twin peaks of wave power at both 8
and 13-14 seconds, the latter being a ese swell that will
persist. As the wind picks up by up to a category the dominant
period will shorten some but overall wave heights will not
change significantly.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Bermuda high pressure will keep southwest
winds flowing across the coastal waters through the period.

Some daytime increase in winds are expected with a decent sea
breeze Saturday as it will be one of the warmest days of the
year. Also the inland through will be enhanced by the heat which
in turn will strengthen the low level jet overnight Saturday.

Expect speeds to increase from the standard 10-15 knot range to
15-20 for a few hours. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but a
few five footers may develop overnight depending on just how
much winds increase.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Circulation around high pressure over the
western atlantic will keep winds from the SW through the period.

An approaching cold front may briefly tighten the gradient
enough to warrant exercise caution headlines or a small craft
advisory late on Monday, but confidence on this is low at this
time.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... mbb
short term... Shk
long term... Rek
aviation... mbb
marine... Rek mbb shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi108 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi40 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 82°F 81°F1015.3 hPa
41108 21 mi48 min 83°F2 ft
WLON7 25 mi48 min 87°F 84°F1015 hPa (-2.1)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi63 min SW 4.1 85°F 1017 hPa78°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi48 min S 12 G 13 83°F 83°F1014.5 hPa (-2.3)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi49 min 82°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi40 min SSW 7.8 G 14 82°F 82°F1015.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi48 min 1014.9 hPa (-2.2)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi38 min SW 9.7 G 12 83°F 85°F1015.5 hPa74°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi40 min WSW 7.8 G 12 82°F 82°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4W4SW5SW5CalmSW3SW3SW4S3SW3CalmS4SE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4
1 day agoCalmNW3W3W6SW3W4SW4SW5W7SW4SW3SW4CalmSW5SW5SW4CalmCalmW14
G20
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CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW10
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W4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:01 AM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:11 AM EDT     -1.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:58 PM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.60.51.93.24.14.54.23.21.90.4-0.8-1.4-1.1-0.11.53.24.65.55.75.13.82.10.4-0.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:08 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:07 PM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:14 PM EDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.41.22.43.64.44.64.13.120.8-0.2-0.6-0.30.82.33.95.25.85.64.83.72.41.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.