Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:16PM Friday May 26, 2017 10:17 PM EDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:02AMMoonset 8:19PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 929 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 929 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will dominate through Saturday. A cold front will approach from the north late Sunday and then remain in the area through much of next week which will keep the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 270148
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
948 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will dominate into Sunday, bringing mostly dry
weather and increasing heat. A cold front approaching from the
north may bring late day thunderstorms to portions of the area
Sunday. This front will then linger in the area for much of next
week, keeping the weather unsettled.

Near term through Saturday
As of 930 pm Friday... Via latest Sat imagery trends, thin
cirrus will move overhead during the overnight period. The sfc
pressure pattern and somewhat relaxed pg will result in wsw
winds at 5 mph or less inland and 5 to 10 mph along the
immediate coast. With a pinned sea breeze today, hier dewpoints
were unable to advect inland. Add the light wsw winds fcst
overnight and you have minimal if any at all, fog development.

Have tweaked overnight lows by a degree or 2 due to clear skies
with some protected locations from the wsw winds and away from
the immediate coast seeing temps drop to around 60 degrees.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Surface high pressure was centered to our
south with ridge axis to our W and this high will remain at the
helm through Saturday. This ridge will get flattened as a
shortwave trough moves through the great lakes and mid-west,
thus allowing the flow aloft across the eastern carolinas to
become a little more zonal tonight.

Except for some thin cirrus overnight, skies will be clear as
winds quickly diminish this eve. Dewpoint recovery will also
occur quickly this eve and we expect lows to be a category or so
higher tonight as compared to last night, mainly lower to mid
60s with some upper 60s at the beaches.

Deep westerly flow in place on sat. A thunderstorm cluster is
expected to develop upstream of the central southern appalachians
during the afternoon. The flow should take this convection
eastward, keeping it to our NW through the daylight hours of
sat. Deep westerly flow and rising 850 mb temps point to higher
temps on Sat with still manageable humidity levels although
dewpoints will be a good 10 degrees higher Sat afternoon as
compared to this afternoon. Highs on Sat will be in the low 90s.

The seabreeze will once again be pinned rather near the
immediate coast, making its greatest inland advancement across
brunswick county during the afternoon. Beach temps will be in
the lower to mid 80s. A breezy SW wind is expected on sat, 15 to
25 mph.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... Somewhat of an active period as the
convergence of a split flow at the mid levels over the
tennessee valley keeps a parade of shortwaves moving through the
area. At the surface a baroclinic zone will be aligned in close
proximity to the mid level pattern with an east west boundary
draped along the tennessee virginia border.

The first shortwave moves through late Saturday evening and with
the consistency of the gfs, I have increased pops for a few
hours. There will be a 12-18 hour lull in activity through
Sunday afternoon before another stronger wave moves across. I
have tweaked pops to show Sunday morning mostly dry with the
pops relegated to more of an afternoon evening scenario. There
is some severe potential with the activity so please refer to
the storm prediction center's day 2 and 3 convective outlooks.

Warm temperatures will continue with a down slope west to
northwesterly flow aloft with highs a couple of degrees either
side of 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Primary headline for the extended forecast
period is 'unsettled', as a low-amplitude but broad upper trough
translates slowly east across new england and the mid-atlantic
seaboard. Near the base of the trough, phasing impulses from the
southern jet stream over top the gulf ridge will allow a series of
whisking disturbances to bring TSTM chances much of the upcoming
week when coupled with late may and early june heating and an
active afternoon sea breeze boundary. Temperatures however will
remain slightly above normal as the thermal influence is
exerted more by the gulf and SE states upper ridge. No shortage
of column mositure or dry mid level caps to impede convection
with pwat values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches next week, so what
convection does form will be capable of dumping good rain
amounts. Storm motion generally will be from west to east, so
all locations will have a good chance of rainfall and tstms at
one point during the upcoming week.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 00z Saturday... High confidence forVFR conditions across
all terminals during the 24 hr TAF issuance period.

Any leftover diurnal CU will dissipate around sunset. Occasional
thin cirrus will move across the local terminals tonight thru
sat. Few to scattered diurnally driven CU at 4.5 to 6.0 ft will
develop by midday Sat and persist thru the day. A mid-level S w
trof or vort within the wnw to NW flow aloft, located well
upstream early sat, will approach central nc by Sat evening.

Thunderstorm activity will accompany this S W trof which could
affect inland terminals beyond the 245 hr issuance period.

However, could see a bkn mid to upper level clouds reach the
inland terminals by the end of this fcst period.

The sea pinned sea breeze should quickly dissipate this evening,
leaving wsw winds at 5 kt or less thru the overnight. Wsw winds
will pick up to around 10 kt by midday across all terminals,
with gusts AOA 15 kt across the inland terminals during the
aftn and evening. The sea breeze will affect the coastal
terminals and will see ssw-sw winds increase to around 15 kt
with g20+ kt during the aftn and early evening. Winds should
remain active just enough overnight to keep fog from becoming a
problem. The gusty wsw-wnw winds during today helped evaporate
plenty of the standing water from the previous days rains.

Extended outlook... Brief MVFR ifr conditions possible mid to
late Sat evening for lbt and ilm terminals due to thunderstorms.

MVFR ifr conditions possible all terminals in scattered showers
and thunderstorms Sun evening, and again late Mon night through
tue.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 915 pm Friday... Sw-wsw winds around 15 kt will drop to a
range of 10 to 15 kt overnight. Current seas are running higher
than the fcst as well as various guidance. Have upped current
seas by 1 to 2 ft based on latest local buoys ie. 41008. This a
result of the modest wsw to SW winds. The resulting short period
significant seas off CAPE fear south to little river inlet will
run hier than what wavewatch3 produces and even swan if the
hier local winds are not input.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 pm Friday... The approach of the new moon and perigee
will increase the tidal ranges and this will bring higher high
tides and lower low tides through the weekend. Abnormally low
water levels will quickly recover for the remainder of the
afternoon. The seabreeze will keep SW winds in the 15 to 20 kt
range into this eve, highest across the near shore waters. As
the boundary dissipates later this eve and overnight, wind
speeds will diminish to 10 to 15 kt and the direction will back
to westerly. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft. We expect winds and seas to
be similarly driven by a healthy seabreeze on Saturday with the
strongest winds, up to 15 to 20 kt in association with the
afternoon and eve seabreeze circulation.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Expect a mostly southwest and fairly brisk
flow at times through the period. There may be a brief interval
of westerly winds in the wake of shortwaves both early Sunday
and Monday. Speeds will be 15-20 knots initially with a good low
level jet and back off a bit for Sunday and early Monday with
more of a 10- 15 knot range. Significant seas will mostly be 2-4
feet with a possibility of a few five footers early. The
spectrum will lean more toward the lower end at the end of the
period as well.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Sw winds this period 15 kt or less except
higher afternoon gusts associated with an active sea breeze. Sea
heights generally a 2-3 foot range this period, along with
isolated to scattered inshore tstms mainly in the late
afternoons and evening as storms push off land over the 0-20nm
waters. Troughing inland may bring the highest winds of 15-20 kt
sustained Wednesday. Mariners should get a radar update before
heading out this period as there will be a chance of storms each
day.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Dch rjd
short term... Shk
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi138 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi70 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 74°F1013.5 hPa
41108 21 mi31 min 76°F4 ft
WLON7 25 mi48 min 71°F 77°F1013.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi93 min WSW 4.1 73°F 1014 hPa65°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi48 min SW 8.9 G 12 74°F 75°F1012.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi49 min 74°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi70 min SW 12 G 18 74°F 74°F1013.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi48 min 1013.7 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi28 min SW 16 G 19 74°F 75°F4 ft1014.5 hPa67°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi70 min SW 18 G 23 74°F 76°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi33 minWSW 510.00 miFair73°F67°F82%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS12
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2 days agoS5SW7W9
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W8W9W6W7CalmW3SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:19 AM EDT     -1.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     -1.77 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.6-0.9-1.6-1.4-0.51.12.94.45.2542.30.6-0.9-1.7-1.6-0.70.92.94.86.16.45.74.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:11 AM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM EDT     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:31 PM EDT     6.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.81.2-0-0.8-0.70.11.53.24.55.14.942.61.1-0.2-1-1-01.63.55.26.26.25.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.