Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:24 PM EST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 309 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Sun night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
AMZ200 309 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A strong cold front will move off the coast and across the waters tonight into Sunday. Strong high pressure will follow and build across the local waters through Tuesday. A coastal trough may develop in the vicinity by the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.96, -78.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 182332
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
632 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

A strong cold front will pass through the area late tonight and
Sunday morning. The front may be accompanied by some gusty late
night showers. The front will usher in much colder and drier air
with Monday seeing the lowest daytime highs with the possibility
for a freeze or frost late Sunday night and Monday night.

Temperatures will moderate Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast
uncertainty increases mid to late next week as another cold
front moves into the area. The weather could turn unsettled and
will hinge on the track of developing low pressure in the
gulf of mexico.

Near term through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A potent shortwave as seen on water vapor
imagery across kansas will rapidly move across the area tonight all
the while shearing out. This will bring a moisture challenged cold
front across the area with timing a couple of hours either side of
12 utc. Models have trended drier with the front with at most a
broken line of fast moving showers moving from west to east. Winds
will crank up tonight ahead of the front at 15-25 mph with higher
gusts. With the fast moving flow, clouds and what few showers there
are will clear out quickly Sunday. Lows tonight will not fall off
much with the gradient increasing with middle to upper 50s common.

For Sunday there is some cold air advection but certainly not
overwhelming with highs in the lower to middle 60s.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... With pw values a mere 0.2" for much of the
period there will likely not be a cloud in sight. The exception may
be some wisps of cirrus Monday night as some upper jetting
strengthens off the coast and the carolinas end up near the left
entrance region. Mid level clouds may also be lurking close by to
our SW in a tongue of enhanced warm advection. While moisture will
be in short supply cold air will not. Forecast soundings show as
little as 2000ft of vertical mixing through Monday afternoon,
keeping high temperatures mired in the 50s even as moderate warm
advection will be occurring at higher levels. Both nights will
feature an inland light freeze while temperatures closer to the
water remain in the upper 30s.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... A couple of short wave troughs in the
southern stream will have some impact on area weather in much of the
extended period though confidence is currently low in exactly what
those impacts will be due to model divergence.

The first upper trough will bring a chance of showers to the area
Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. After
this fropa, the second upper trough could spawn low development
along the front off shore and bring rain to the area Thursday into

For now... The forecast reflects slight chance to chance pops Tuesday
into Wednesday with slight chance pops for Wed night into Friday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal normals of the mid 60s Tuesday
and Wednesday before falling back into the mid to upper 50s for
Thursday and Friday. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected
Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Mins will see a
similar trend falling from the mid to upper 40s Tuesday night to the
mid 30s to around 40 Thursday night before rebounding to the 40s by
Saturday night.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 23z... Southerly low-level jetting will spread across the
eastern carolinas overnight ahead of a cold front. Gusts will
diminish from west to east on Sunday as high pressure builds in
from the west. Expect primarilyVFR ceilings, with a narrow band
of scattered light showers possible, mainly along the front.

The worst of the wind will remain just above the surface
tonight due to poor vertical mixing. Winds 500-2000 feet agl
should increase to 35-40 knots from the south between 03-05z
Sunday. With the front expected to be offshore by sunrise
Sunday, post-frontal winds should veer northwesterly with speeds
gradually diminishing throughout the day.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions are expected Sunday through
Tuesday morning. There is potential for MVFR ceilings Tuesday
night through Wednesday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Quiet enough over the coastal waters
currently with with winds in the lower teens and seas three feet or
so. Winds and seas will rapidly increase this evening through the
overnight hours well into a 25-30 knot range. This, as strong low
level jetting precedes a cold front. There may be some gusts into
gale criteria but since the strongest winds will be in warm air
advection, the need for a gale warning isn't a given. Winds turn
offshore early Sunday, from the north, northwest at 15-20.

Significant seas ramp up quickly from the current three feet to well
over small craft criteria by midnight and continue through most of
the day Sunday.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Sunday night brings a moderately strong yet
relaxing gradient as chilly high pressure airmass builds in from the
west. Flow will veer slightly from NW to N or even NE and advisory-
worthy wind speeds should be outside of the 20nm zones. On Monday
expect a more pronounced relaxation of winds and seas due to the
high moving overhead. The high remains over the area Monday night
while elongating to the east. Winds will remain minimal and turn
onshore while seas smooth into the 1-2 ft range most areas.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Return flow behind the departing high
Tuesday will buckle as a coastal trough develops along the southeast
coast. Winds should turn easterly on Tuesday, then perhaps
southeasterly for a time Tuesday night as the trough makes its
closest approach to shore, but by Wednesday morning the feature
should retreat back offshore as high pressure advances across the
ohio valley and shifts our winds to a more north to northeast
direction. Light winds and slight seas are expected until Wednesday
night or Thursday when NE winds of 15 to 20 kt could build seas to 4
to 5 ft with 6 footers possible at 20 nm.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Sunday for amz250-252-254-

Near term... Jdw shk
short term... Rjd
long term... Tra
aviation... Crm tra

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi76 min WSW 14 G 18 66°F 63°F1010 hPa
41108 21 mi54 min 64°F4 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi99 min WSW 6 67°F 1010 hPa58°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi55 min 64°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi76 min SW 12 G 16 66°F 64°F1009.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi44 min WSW 14 G 18 72°F 72°F1010.6 hPa63°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi76 min SW 16 G 23 69°F 67°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi39 minWSW 1010.00 miFair65°F58°F80%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE4S5S6S4S4S4S5S4SW7SW8SW7
1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N5N7N6N6N7NE9NE7N12NE9
2 days agoN4N3N5NW7NW5N5NW4NW4N3CalmCalmNW5NW7NW8NW10N5NW7NW6NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Holden Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:33 AM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:57 AM EST     5.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:12 PM EST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:11 PM EST     4.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:44 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:49 AM EST     5.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:16 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:39 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EST     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.