Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:14PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:21 PM EDT (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 1:47AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 326 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 326 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak cold front will drop south across the area Thursday morning, then will stall across south carolina and dissipate by Friday. Low pressure developing across the gulf of mexico this weekend will bring increasing southerly swell Sunday and Monday, and more widespread showers and Thunderstorms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 232316
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
716 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front approaching from the north will produce a
greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
and on Thursday. The front will dissipate over the area on
Friday. Low pressure developing across the gulf of mexico will
bring tropical moisture northward and help fuel a higher
probability of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain across
the eastern carolinas Sunday and into early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A mid-level disturbance along the savannah
river surrounded by very light steering flow should move very little
over the next 24 hours. Surface high pressure moving across the
great lakes will nudge a surface cold front southward across north
carolina tonight, stalling out across eastern south carolina on
Thursday. This should be the focus for another day of showers and
thunderstorms.

Today's thunderstorm activity is developing along multiple east-west
oriented convergence boundaries where the airmass is uncapped with
cape of 1500-2500 j kg. Convective organization has remained minimal
due to very weak wind shear: bulk shear across the 0-6 km layer is
only 10-20 kt. Spc's marginal severe weather threat across
northeastern nc and southeastern va is keyed to the stronger shear
and potential for more significant storm cell organization that
exists there.

Convective activity should diminish this evening, however most
recent runs of the synoptic and rapid update models show convection
lingering through the night along the south end of the higher shear
zone across north carolina, particularly as the cold front eases its
way south overnight and increases low-level convergence. A relative
minimum in convection should occur Thursday morning, with showers
and storms reblossoming Thursday afternoon mainly across south
carolina near the stalled front and pooled low-level moisture.

Forecast pops are as high as 70 percent in the florence vicinity
Thursday afternoon.

Lows tonight should range from 68-71. Highs Thursday are forecast to
reach 80 on the beaches to around 84 inland.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Weak upper low across ga Thursday night will
drift northward and weaken further across the far western carolinas
during Friday. In addition, the h5 ridge situated off the coast will
help direct moisture plume back into the carolinas and precipitable
water will increase during the day in response. Expect the best
convective coverage to be across the sc zones initially during
Friday, then in the lbt zone group later in the day. During Friday
the residual foot print of the old front will drift northward and
finally become absorbed in the broader scale flow and awash in the
sea breeze circulation. Favor a blend of mav met numbers through the
period which suggests near climatology high temperatures Friday and
warmer than normal low temperatures each night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... A return to a very wet period appears to
be in order for the extended time frame. A ridge of high
pressure will weaken and the trough will open up across the
eastern half of the united states. The models continue to show a
low developing over the gulf either as a subtropical or
tropical system. For our area this means we should expect to see
increased moisture and the chance of heavy rain. The models
continue to show a surface low developing over the gulf of
mexico, the 12z ECMWF shows the low moving northward to
louisiana and slowing off the coast on Tuesday. The GFS is near
the florida peninsula and the canadian is in middle. With the
recent rains flood watches may be required Sunday into early
next week.

With cloud cover and rain chances high temperatures are expected to
remain in the middle 80s and lows should be range from 68 to 73
through the period.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Monday
As of 23z... Convection approaching kflo and klbt has been
weakening and will continue until dissipating after sunset. Weak
frontal boundary will drop south overnight and result in a wind
shift early Thursday. Scattered convection is expected to
develop early Thursday afternoon along and south of the front.

Extended outlook... Brief local ifr visibility is possible in
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Tropical moisture returning to
the area Sunday and Monday could bring more widespread
thunderstorms with periods of ifr ceilings visibility possible.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure pushing east across the great
lakes will ease a cold front southward through north carolina
tonight. The front should reach the CAPE fear area shortly after
sunrise Thursday, with the boundary slipping south along the grand
strand between 8-11 am. Southwesterly winds ahead of the front
should turn northeasterly behind the front, but with no significant
increase in wind speed expected. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
should end early this evening south of CAPE fear but may continue
overnight north of CAPE fear. Showers storms should develop again
Thursday afternoon, mainly south of CAPE fear. Seas currently around
3 feet should diminish by about a foot with lighter wind
speeds on Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... Onshore flow around 10 knots expected Thursday
night with seas less than 3 ft. As high pressure off the southeast u.S.

Becomes better established the flow will veer to a southerly wind by
Friday night. Chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters,
more-so during Friday and Friday night. Seas 3 ft or less expected
Friday and Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... As high pressure off the coast shifts
eastward and a trough of low pressure exists over the east half
of the united states, the winds will be from the south-
southeast to south-southwest at 10 to 15 knots. This extended
period of fetch will see the seas rising from around 2 to 3 feet
on Saturday to 4 to 6 feet by late in the day on Monday, when a
small craft advisory may be needed.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... Srp
long term... Drh crm
aviation... Crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi141 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi73 min SW 16 G 21 76°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
WLON7 25 mi51 min 78°F 77°F1016.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi51 min SW 14 G 16 78°F 73°F1017 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi51 min 73°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi73 min NNW 14 G 18 74°F 74°F1016.4 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi51 min 1021.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi41 min SW 14 G 18 76°F 76°F1018 hPa72°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi73 min SW 16 G 21 76°F 76°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi41 minSW 1010.00 miFair76°F70°F81%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW4SW3SW3SW4SW4SW5SW3SW4SW3SW3CalmSW5SW4S4S6S5S5S9
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2 days agoSW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW7SW5SW6SW6SW4SW3W5SW7S6SW6SW4S7S4SW5SW6S6S7S5
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:57 AM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:32 PM EDT     4.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:58 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.23.54.54.84.53.52.31-0-0.6-0.601.22.63.84.54.642.91.70.5-0.3-0.6-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 AM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:27 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:24 PM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.944.74.84.43.52.41.40.50.10.10.71.734.14.84.74.13.22.11.10.50.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.