Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:25PM Thursday March 21, 2019 5:48 PM EDT (21:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 322 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely through the night.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 322 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters tonight around midnight. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters Friday night. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday and move overhead during Sunday. Low pressure along a cold front will affect the area Monday night and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211912
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
312 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Dry weather will prevail Friday through the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Low pressure and a cold
front will spread clouds and rain into the carolinas late Monday
into Tuesday, followed by high pressure through mid week.

Near term through Friday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... A strong shortwave diving across eastern
kentucky will move across north carolina this evening. Cold
temperatures developed aloft this morning as a first shortwave moved
overhead -- this second shortwave will bring in even colder mid and
upper level temps, as low as -27c at 500 mb and -8c at 700 mb. Steep
lapse rates beneath this cold pool aloft will combine with meager
low-level moisture to produce an area of convective showers that
should sweep east across the area between 8 pm and midnight. Better
rain chances should exist across north carolina beneath the colder
mid-level temps, and there's even some potential the showers could
be accompanied by gusty winds as CAPE 200-300 j kg and very steep
lapse rates work in tandem with a dry sub-cloud layer. Cloud-top
temperatures via forecast soundings appear to be too warm for a
significant lightning threat, so i'll keep the precip character as
just "showers."
i looked carefully at GFS and NAM model output looking for signs of
a stratospheric intrusion that might transform tonight's convective
cluster into something more sinister, but couldn't find enough of a
signal to raise concern. Mid-level water vapor loops of the
shortwave also show no sign of significant drying that might
indicate such an intrusion is developing. Models have continued to
increase the potential of measurable rain tonight north of florence
and across much of southeastern north carolina, and my pops have
been raised to 30-50 percent for this area. Much warmer mid-level
temperatures and weaker lapse rates south of florence and myrtle
beach should preclude any rain chances there.

Cool advection behind tonight's front shouldn't be particularly
strong, but steady winds should keep low temps in the lower to
middle 40s. Skies should clear after midnight tonight and continue
through Friday night as high pressure builds in from the west. A
secondary dry cold front will arrive Friday evening, veering winds
northerly and bringing in a chillier airmass that will continue into
the weekend.

Short term Saturday through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Thursday... A reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive in deep NW flow on the front end of high as it builds
into the area. This will maintain temps slightly below normal,
although bright march sunshine should help take the edge off as
we progress through the first few days of spring.

The northerly flow will lighten up through Sat night as high
pressure shifts closer over the carolinas and ridge builds
overhead. The light to calm winds and clear skies, will lead to
ideal radiational cooling. With such a dry air mass in place,
expect temps to drop out quickly Sat eve and head down toward
the mid 30s for lows with typical cold spots dropping near or
below freezing.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... After a cool start, air mass will
modify through Sun into Mon as high pressure shifts off the
coast and a deep s-sw flow begins to develop. On Monday, a
shortwave will dig down as broad mid to upper trough pushes
east. This will push the cold front south, but will also help to
produce or deepen wave of low pressure along it. The associated
sfc low will move across the southeast late Mon into tues as a
cold front drops farther down from the north. This will spread
clouds and rain across the area on Monday, with some heavier
rain possible as the low crosses the local area Mon night. The
cold front will drop south by tues, but shortwave will ride
through which may keep some lingering clouds and pcp in the
forecast through Tuesday with cooler northerly flow in place.

Dry high pressure will build into the carolinas through the
middle of next week with temps remaining on the cool side to
start and slowly heading back toward normal by thurs.

Temps Sun night will be 45 to 50 as dewpoints rise with a
southerly return flow in place. Mon will be the warmest day with
temps in 70s, but a return to below normal temps will in a
cooler northerly flow behind cold front tues and wed. Could see
another chilly morning early next wed.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Low cloud deck from this morning continues to
dissipate, with satellite images showing last remaining ifr MVFR
areas in southeastern nc clearing out. All terminals should be
vfr within next hour or so, and remain so for rest of taf
period. Scattered clouds this afternoon with broken cloud deck
around 7-9 kft late tonight with chance of showers, particularly
over SE north carolina. Winds currently out of the west will
slowly back to the southwest, before becoming west-northwest
after 02-05z as the next cold front sweeps through.

Extended outlook...VFR Friday through early next week. Possible
MVFR last Monday and Tuesday with unsettled weather.

Marine
As of 300 pm Thursday... Deepening low pressure in eastern
virginia is maintaining a healthy westerly wind across the
carolinas today. A cold front will sweep east across the waters
late this evening, veering wind directions northwesterly after
midnight with speeds actually increasing a bit. Wind directions
should turn back to the west again Friday ahead of a second cold
front. This front will reach the area Friday night and should
turn directions northerly. This spells a long period of
uncomfortable or even hazardous marine weather conditions for
area boaters with breezy to strong winds and large seas
continuing.

The small craft advisory has been extended out through Friday
evening for the CAPE fear area waters as strong westerly winds and
continued backswell from storminess over the past 36 hours will
maintain the potential of 6+ foot seas. Conditions along the grand
strand will be only marginally better as west-northwest winds 15-20
kt and 4-5 foot seas will continue tonight into Friday.

A reinforcing push of cooler air will keep seas elevated into
very early Saturday morning, but then a decent drop will occur
through Saturday in diminishing northerly flow as high pressure
shifts closer overhead. Seas 2 to 4 ft with maybe a few 5 fters
early Sat morning, will diminish to under 3 ft by aftn and 2 ft
or less Sat night through early mon. A light return flow will
develop Sun afternoon as the center of the high shifts off the
coast. The gradient will tighten on Monday as wave of low
pressure develops on cold front dropping down from the north.

This will help to push both winds and seas up through late mon
into tues, initially with increasing southerly winds and then
stiff northerly winds on the back end as cold front drops south
of waters through tues.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 10 pm this evening to midnight edt
tonight for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Friday night for
amz250-252.

Near term... Tra
short term... Rgz
long term... Rgz
aviation... Tra vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi40 min WNW 9.7 G 14 62°F 59°F1007.8 hPa
41108 21 mi48 min 57°F4 ft
WLON7 25 mi36 min 63°F 56°F1007.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi36 min W 12 G 18 62°F 56°F1007.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi48 min 56°F4 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi28 min WSW 18 G 21 61°F 69°F1008.9 hPa48°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi40 min WSW 14 G 19 59°F 58°F1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi68 minWNW 11 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F38°F39%1007.8 hPa

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Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:10 AM EDT     -1.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:22 AM EDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     -1.71 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:44 PM EDT     5.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-1.2-1.8-1.5-0.41.43.34.95.85.74.62.91-0.6-1.5-1.6-0.80.72.64.45.65.95.13.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     5.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:55 PM EDT     5.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.4-0-0.8-0.70.31.93.54.85.55.54.83.520.6-0.5-0.7-0.11.32.94.45.45.75.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.