Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 24, 2017 2:41 AM EDT (06:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 9:07PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 953 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, building to 7 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft, building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft, building to 11 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed..Tropical storm conditions possible.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 953 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure to the north will result in northeast to east flow through tonight. Hurricane maria will move northward and pass offshore Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous winds and seas will continue for much of the upcoming week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240519
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
119 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue the warm and dry weather through the
remainder of the weekend. Hurricane maria is expected to move
northward a couple of hundred miles east of the carolina coast
Monday through Wednesday. Hazardous boating conditions, strong
and frequent rip currents, and high surf are all expected to
develop. A cold front is expected to reach the area Friday,
bringing cooler weather for late next week.

Near term through today
As of 900 pm Saturday... Dangerous beach conditions will persist
through Sun and for much of the upcoming week. Powerful swell
energy generated by hurricane maria will bring strong and
frequent rip currents and a high risk of rip currents remains in
effect and will likely persist into mid and late next week. A
high surf advisory is in effect for steep breakers, up to 8 ft
and higher. Other beach hazards include a strong longshore
current. Some beach erosion is possible during the time of high
tide. High tide is at 1030p tonight and 11 am sun. Low tide will
help to enhance the severity of the rip currents Sun with one
low tide during the early morning and another during the later
afternoon.

A surface ridge will persist from the north tonight and Sunday
as hurricane maria moves north, remaining well offshore of the
east coast of florida and georgia. At h5 an upper low will
become positioned across the northern gulf coast. Relative
humidity in the h85-h5 layer will remain meager with uvvs
lacking through Sunday, thus no pops are warranted overnight or
sun. There will be some fog around during the early morning
hours once again, but this will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

It will become somewhat breezy at the beaches Sun afternoon and
eve with NE winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph. Above normal
temps will continue. Lows tonight will be in the mid and upper
60s with lower 70s at the beaches. Highs on Sun will be in the
mid and upper 80s with lower 80s at the beaches.

Short term tonight through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Mid-level high centered over pa-ny area
is expected to hook up with the atlantic ridge once the
remnants of jose dissipate by Monday morning. At the same time,
a rather weak upper level low will reside over the gulf coast
between la and fl. And finally, hurricane maria is expected to
slow down by Monday once the blocking ridging to it's north
becomes established. Flow around the upper ridging and the upper
low will have a tendency to actually pull maria slightly
westward beginning by Tuesday morning at which point it would
be at the 33 degree N latitude and 72.5 longitude. A couple of
degrees in longitude to the west at this point will be the
difference for whether hurricane watches warnings will be
raised.

As for sensible weather conditions during this period. The fa is
looking at basically mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days with
the exception for the immediate coast where partly sunny may be the
right wording due to the increase of exhaust cirrus emitted by
maria. By Tuesday morning, could even see a few showers from
maria reach the immediate coast and possibly progress inland
across the ilm nc CWA before quickly dissipating. With mid-level
dry air and subsidence, ie. Sinking air, occurring ahead of
maria will for the most part keep the ilm CWA pcpn- free.

For MAX min temps, looking at the continuation of summer like
conditions with highs each day in the 80s and lows in the 60s to
around 70. This is basically 1 to 2 categories above climo
norms.

Maria's swell will continue to increase in size Sunday into Monday
then plateau Monday night into Tuesday. As a result, surf
conditions will surpass thresholds that require a high surf
advisory. In addition, strong rip currents are expected and may
occur at any time, not just low tide, given the size of the
expected surf and all of that water that runs up onto the
beaches. In addition, minor beach erosion is possible during
this 2 day period, mainly at high tide where water may reach the
dune lines of area beaches.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... The big question will be how far
offshore will maria stay. The latest global models continue to
show the center of maria slowing down and staying just offshore
cape hatteras middle of next week. A trough of low pressure will
pick up maria and carries it out to sea by late next week.

At the surface a cold front will move into the eastern
carolinas and offshore by Friday. Cooler temperatures and drier
air will move into the region for Saturday. At this time only a
chance of showers is expected on the western fringe of maria
during mid-week. With the best chances along the coast mainly
north of little river, sc. There will be a slight chance of
precipitation late Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the
middle to upper 80s but as the front approaches maximum
temperatures fall into the lower 80s Friday and the upper 70s on
Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s
to around 70 Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Lows Friday are
expected to fall into the lower to middle 60s.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
As of 05z... Development of MVFR or ifr visibility restrictions
is looking a little less likely at this point. Kltx 88d vwp
showing 20-25 kt at 1k ft and all reporting surface sites have
winds 4-7 kt. Latest guidance also shows boundary layer winds
twice as strong as last night. These factors should keep fog
from being an issue and low level dry air should be enough to
prevent development of a bkn ovc stratus deck. Thus will carry
vfr at all sites through daybreak. Skies will remain mostly
clear today with only few sct low topped cumulus along the
afternoon sea breeze coupled with thin patches of cirrus from
time to time. Northeast winds continue today with speeds in the
10 to 15 kt range this afternoon with potential for gusts along
the coast.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr in fog and stratus possible during
the early morning hours on mon. Brief MVFR conditions may
develop at the coastal terminals as hurricane maria brings
isolated showers tue-wed as it moves n, with its center
remaining offshore. N winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt at the
coastal terminals tue-wed.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 900 pm Saturday... A small craft advisory remains in
effect. Powerful long period swell energy generated by hurricane
maria will bring hazardous seas. Seas will build up to 5 to 7 ft
tonight and to 8 to 10 ft sun. The seas will be highest across
the outer waters. High pressure ridging from the N will keep the
wind direction from the NE through the period. Winds speeds will
increase to 15 to 20 kt overnight and up to 20 to 25 kt on sun.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... SCA remains in effect for the local
waters due to increasing significant seas.

The story for this time-line will be the increasing 15+ second
period swell from maria. Significant seas will peak in the 7 to 10
foot range late Sun thru early tue. The sfc pressure gradient
will be slowly tightening as maria pushes or inches closer
during this period. This will result with increasing NE winds
sun that will back to the north, Mon thru Mon night. Wind
speeds will also be increasing with SCA threshold for windspeeds
being reached.

With the increasing swells, verbiage will be added to the mww for
hazardous navigating conditions likely across local area inlets to
and from the atlantic as well as the mouths of the lower CAPE fear
river and winyah bay.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... This portion of the forecast will be
controlled by hurricane maria as it moves northward and slows
just off hatteras. The winds are expected to be from the north
20 to 33 knots north of little river and 15 to 25 knots to the
south. Winds will shift to the northwest on Wednesday with the
same speeds. Seas are expected to range from 7 to 12 feet north
cape fear and drop down to 5 to 8 feet south of CAPE fear.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk through late tonight for scz054-056.

High surf advisory from 6 am this morning to 8 pm edt Monday
for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk through late tonight for ncz106-108-110.

High surf advisory from 6 am this morning to 8 pm edt Monday
for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis...

near term... Rjd srp
short term... Dch
long term... Drh
aviation... Iii
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SSBN7 14 mi101 min 3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi33 min ENE 7.8 G 12 75°F 80°F1015.5 hPa
41108 21 mi41 min 80°F5 ft
WLON7 25 mi41 min 73°F 79°F1016 hPa (-0.5)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 26 mi56 min ENE 11 76°F 1016 hPa72°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi41 min NNE 13 G 20 76°F 82°F1015.1 hPa (-0.7)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi42 min 79°F5 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi33 min ENE 14 G 21 77°F 79°F1015.7 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 40 mi41 min 1015.1 hPa (-0.7)
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi31 min NE 18 G 21 79°F 82°F1014.6 hPa71°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi33 min E 18 G 25 77°F 80°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair71°F68°F93%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N7N6N6N5SE5E6--E5SE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3
1 day agoCalmN4N4N3CalmCalmN3N4E7E5SE8SE6SE5E3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmW4W4NW5NW3S3SE4S5S5CalmS4SW4NE8SW6W4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:39 AM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:01 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.41.20.2-0.4-0.50.21.42.73.84.54.54.13.220.9-0-0.4-00.81.933.73.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:52 AM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.13.32.31.30.70.61.12.13.24.24.95.14.84.13.12.11.20.91.11.82.73.64.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.