Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Varnam, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:01PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:11 AM EST (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 755 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Overnight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of rain early this evening, then a chance of rain late this evening. Rain likely.
Wed..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy dense fog.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy dense fog in the evening. A chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 755 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will move off the new england coast through Wednesday. A coastal front developing just offshore moves onshore late Wednesday. A front will waver across the area Thursday through Saturday with unsettled weather expected through the period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Varnam, NC
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location: 33.96, -78.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200106
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
806 pm est Tue feb 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will wedge in from the north through Wednesday
bringing with it much cooler temperatures and the threat for
light rain or drizzle. A front stalled south of the area will
track northward as a warm front, crossing the area by Thursday.

The mild temperatures on Thu will be temporary as a cold front
will quickly follow with yet another wedge of high pressure.

Cooler temps, overcast skies and the threat of light rainfall
will occur Fri thru sat. A warm front will track northward
across the area by Sun with widespread 70s expected for the
latter half of the upcoming weekend.

Near term through Wednesday night
As of 330 pm Tuesday... Latest surface analysis shows 1038 mb
high pressure centered over upstate ny with a stationary
frontal boundary off the fl coast. The cad setup favors NE winds
and a cloudy sky tonight. As far as chances for rain, aside
from a scattered sprinkle early this evening, isentropic lift
increases after midnight when pops ramp up from west to east
across the area. Any precip will be light at the onset, with
only up to about a tenth of an inch expected tonight.

The rain lingers into Wednesday, before a drying trend ensues
from west to east Wednesday afternoon as the best moisture
profiles and isentropic lift push off to the east. As for temps,
a coastal trough is progged to approach the beaches during the
afternoon hours. The front is not expected to make it too far
inland during the day due to the strength of the cad, so
generally favored the cooler NAM met numbers inland (highs in
the mid 40s to lwr 50s there), with some greater warming near
the coast... Upr 50s to near 60. There will be quite a gradient
in temps and at this point it's tough to pinpoint exactly where
it will setup. Patchy fog also possible during the day.

Best chance for some inland propagation of sea fog is Wednesday
night with the front still in the vicinity. Maintained slight
chance to chance pops with some weak lift still over the area,
but any precip will be light. Low temps similar to daytime highs
Wednesday, with temps at night fairly stagnant or potentially
rising slightly depending on the exact location of the coastal
front.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 345 pm Tuesday... The wedge will break down long enough on
thu to allow some temporary milder temperatures ie. 70s, for
daytime highs across the majority of the ilm cwa. The far nw
portions of the ilm CWA may hold in the 60s due to the wedge
and cloudiness holding on longer. The immediate coast will even
break 70 with the exception for locations exposed to a SW wind
that is considered an onshore flow given the coastline
configuration ie. Along the brunswick county coast. Overall,
temps running 10+ degrees above normal.

The frontal boundary will do an about face and drop back to the
south as a fresh 1035mb high with canadian origins, ridges down
the east side of the appalachians. The accompanying CAA will
also aid the ridging with, you guessed it, another wedge ie.

Cad, sets up shop for Thu night thru Fri night. Looking at
stratiform low clouds, patchy to areas of light rain or drizzle
and fog accompanied by a brisk NE to ene wind. The moisture
depth is similar to the previous wedge except the upper ridging
extending from the bahamas is slightly flatter which results in
a more wsw to ene rainfall orientation as opposed to the SW to
ne. The models prog slightly hier accumulated rainfall amounts
for this period which is basically around one quarter of an
inch or less. And no pcpn type issues just not cold enough.

Temps during this 2nd wedge will run 5 to 10 degrees below the
norm.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 345 pm Tuesday... For Sat into Sun time-line, will be
looking at the breakdown of another cad wedge. With Sun having
the potential to observe widespread 70s after the previous
couple of days with highs in the 50s. Rainfall will remain on
the light side Sat into Sun with mainly light rain or drizzle.

Could see embedded showers along the coastal trof front as it
lifts inland and eventually north of the fa by sun.

Going into early next week, the longwave pattern aloft modifies.

Whether this modification becomes permanent or resorts back to
the pattern of the past couple of weeks is still in question.

What does occur is a break in these cad wedge events for the fa.

This the result of the upper ridge extending from the bahamas
flattening out. In addition, the upper trof over the desert sw
also flattens out. This after the last S W trof rotating around
it, basically takes picks up this trof and both together track
to the ne, toward the great lakes by the end of this period.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 0z... .CurrentlyVFR with scattered light rain over the
inland areas. Expect rain to become more widespread shortly
after midnight and low level moisture is advected from the south
with isentropic lift. Ceilings will begin to fall shortly after to
MVFR overnight from south to north, before ifr ceilings
develop tomorrow morning. Inland terminals could see lifr cigs.

Look for visibilities to drop to 3-4 miles tomorrow, especially
within stratiform rain. Rain chances begin to decrease in the last
few hours of the TAF period. Winds to remain strong out of the
northeast overnight around 10kts. For inland terminals, winds will
die down at end of TAF period and become more northerly. Wind
forecast for coastal terminals will be more tricky, depending on
timing and how far inland a coastal front goes. Look for easterly
winds at coastal terminals tomorrow afternoon before becoming
light and variable.

Extended outlook... Likely ifr on Wednesday. Unsettled weather
Wednesday evening through Sunday with continued ifr lifr
conditions possible at times.

Marine
As of 800 pm Tuesday... Marine statement has been issued
regarding low water action stage offshore related to more
extreme tidal behavior with the full moon. Astronomical low
tides will result in abnormally low water levels overnight. The
lowest levels will occur between midnight and 3 am Wednesday,
dropping between 1 and 2 feet below the normal low tide.

Boaters should use spotlights at night if navigating the
intracoastal waterway where the width of inlets and entrances
become narrower. Exposed sand bars and shoaling will be
noticeable. Remain near the intracoastal waterway's center channel
line to avoid running aground. If navigating near-shore on the
ocean, keep in mind, the surf zone usually extends farther
offshore during very low water levels.

Tonight thru Wednesday night...

a small craft advisory remains in effect through Wednesday
night. Strong high pressure to the north will allow for 20-30
kt NE winds tonight, with occasional gusts up to 35 kt possible
especially over the southern coastal waters. Seas up to 7 ft
out 20 nm. Seas remain elevated through Wednesday night hence
the small craft advisory, while winds decrease on Wednesday and
Wednesday night with a coastal trough in the vicinity. Expect
variable directions depending on where exactly the front is
located, with speeds mainly under 15 kt. Sea fog expected as
well, potentially dense at times, Wednesday afternoon through
night.

Thursday thru Sunday...

the SCA will have ended by daybreak Thu but seas will remain
somewhat elevated during the day on Thu eventhough winds will
have switched to the sw. The SW winds over adjacent land areas
will likely run up to 5 kt hier especially if enough insolation
occurs. The seas will subside-some but winds further offshore
will have been ese to sse across a decent fetch which will have
produced an 8 to 9 second period ese swell that will continue
to push into the local waters thruout this period. The hier
dewpoints during Thu into Thu evening may be enough to produce
sea fog over the waters but at this point have limited the dense
sea fog to patchy in the fcst.

The next cad or wedge Thu night into Sat will result in similar
conditions to the ongoing one attm. The ridging and CAA surge
combine late Thu night thru Fri to produce SCA conditions from
both winds and significant seas during the Fri aftn thru sat
morning time-line. The inverted trof coastal trof over the
offshore waters will push toward the coast while also lifting
northward during Sat into Sat night. Winds will drop off as
they veer to the SE to an eventual and overall SW direction on
sun. Gusty SW winds combined with continued elevated seas may
breach SCA levels during sun.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 800 pm Tuesday... Astronomical high tide associated with
the full moon will create larger swings in the tides the next
several days. Tides tonight will fall between 1 and 2 feet
below mean lower low water, which will create additional chances
for running aground with exposed sand bars and shoaling.

Minor flooding to area beaches is also expected Wednesday
morning. Low lying water front streets, swashes and tidal
creeks will see minor flooding. Additional minor flooding will
be possible beyond Wednesday morning with the next several high
tide cycles.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 am to 10 am est Wednesday for
scz054-056.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 am to 10 am est Wednesday for
ncz106>108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Synopsis... Iii
near term... Mck
short term... Dch
long term... Dch
aviation... Vao
marine... Dch mck
tides coastal flooding... Mck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 14 mi63 min NE 16 G 19 42°F 54°F1030.5 hPa
41108 21 mi41 min 54°F4 ft
WLON7 25 mi41 min 40°F 53°F1032.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi41 min NNE 18 G 22 42°F 51°F1031.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi63 min NE 18 G 25 44°F 54°F1031.6 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 32 mi41 min 53°F5 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 46 mi31 min NNE 23 G 29 54°F 61°F1029.4 hPa52°F
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi63 min ENE 21 G 27 49°F 61°F1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi91 minNE 510.00 miOvercast41°F33°F75%1031.8 hPa

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1 day agoCalmS5SW8SW8W12
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2 days agoNE5N8NE8N6N7NE4N6N5N6E5NE6N6NE6N6NE5E6E5E4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Holden Beach, North Carolina
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Holden Beach
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Wed -- 01:25 AM EST     -1.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:40 AM EST     6.21 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     -1.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:02 PM EST     5.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.8-1.7-0.80.92.94.866.25.33.71.80-1.2-1.7-1.3-01.83.75.15.75.23.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point), North Carolina
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Shallotte Inlet (Bowen Point)
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:43 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:47 AM EST     5.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:15 PM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:15 PM EST     5.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.1-0.9-1-0.21.33.14.55.55.85.34.12.71.1-0.2-0.8-0.60.62.13.64.75.35.14.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.