Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Malibu, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:49PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 4:33 AM PST (12:33 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 4:42AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 218 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 15 seconds. Rain likely.
Thu..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 1 ft at 15 seconds, building to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 218 Am Pst Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst, a 1029 mb high was over idaho and a 1013 mb low pressure center was located 300 nm sw of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Malibu, CA
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location: 33.98, -118.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 201158
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
358 am pst Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis 20 324 am.

Dry weather is expected through early Wednesday. Rain is likely
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, with a chance of
showers thanksgiving morning. Then, dry weather is expected
through early next week, except for a slight chance of showers in
northern areas Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will be
near normal today, then below normal Wednesday through Friday.

There will be a warming trend over the weekend, with slightly
above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

Short term (tdy-thu) 20 357 am.

High clouds have begun to move out of the region this morning. Areas
of low clouds were affecting coastal sections of slo and sba
counties and the santa ynez valley. Low clouds in the sba channel
and to the west of l.A. County will probably push into coastal
sections of l.A. And vtu counties for a few hours this morning.

Expect skies to clear in most areas this morning, then today
should be mostly sunny. Heights and thickness will be a bit lower
across the region today, and gradients will turn onshore. This
would normally produce some cooling across the region, but
more sunshine today will likely offset most of the cooling.

Therefore, expect mostly minor changes in MAX temps from those
observed on mon.

Weak ridging will develop briefly across the region tonight as an
upper low currently just west of northern baja opens up and moves
eastward into arizona. As the weak ridge moves east of the region
late tonight, southwesterly flow will develop aloft ahead of an
upper trough moving through the eastern pacific. Upper level
moisture will increase across the region, so expect mid and high
level clouds to increase across the region late tonight and wed.

There could be some low clouds in some coastal areas as well, but
confidence in the low cloud pattern is low due to the abundant
high cloudiness.

A fairly sharp upper trough will approach the west coast on wed.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the overall upper
pattern, and have all trended a bit slower with the system. They
have also all trended toward bringing less in the way of rainfall
from the associated surface front.

Skies should generally be mostly cloudy across the region on wed,
although it could be partly cloudy to start the day across much of
los angeles county. There is a slight chance of rain north of
point conception. Models keep all other areas dry in the morning,
although the WRF hints at a weak warm front extending into
southern sba and western vtu counties. At this point, do not
expect much from this, and will leave pops confined to areas north
of pt conception in the morning. Rain will become likely in the
afternoon across slo and northern sba counties, with a chance of
rain extending southward into ventura county in the afternoon. It
appears that los angeles county will mostly remain dry during the
day wed.

Models are in fairly good agreement in showing rain spreading into
ventura and los angeles counties Wed evening. Steady rain will
turn to showers across slo and sba counties around midnight, but
not until early Thu morning across los angeles county.

Models continue to show fairly good precipitable water values of
about 1.1 inches, but all models have trended a bit farther north
with a very strong jet stream and the strongest and deepest lift
and moisture. This would favor the heaviest rain across slo and
sba counties, and the mountains of western ventura counties,
with somewhat lower totals across the remainder of ventura county
and across los angeles county.

There will also be an area of increased instability, across the
coastal waters north of pt conception Wed evening and across slo
and sba counties Wed night. A slight chance of thunderstorms was
added to the forecast for these areas during those time periods.

A case could be made to extend the slight chance of thunderstorms
into ventura county, but will let the day shift look at one more
model run.

There will also be a period of moderate low level south to
southwesterly flow which could provide some orographic enhancement
of the rain on and below south and southwest facing slopes.

Models generally show rainfall totals of 0.5 to 0.75 inches
across slo and sba counties, with locally higher totals in the
foothills and mountains, especially across northwestern slo
counties. Across ventura and los angeles counties, expect 0.25 to
0.50 inches, with locally higher totals in the foothills and
mountains, especially in western ventura counties.

The rain will probably still be significant enough to cause
some issues in and around the recent burn areas, especially the
woolsey and hill burn areas, with mudslides and rock slides
possible. At this point, it appears that there is just a 10%
chance that rainfall intensities will meet USGS debris flow
thresholds across the woolsey and hill burn areas. Those
thresholds are 0.50 inches in one hour, 0.30 inches in 30 minutes,
and 0.20 inches in 15 minutes. Still, residents in and near the
burn areas should stay tuned to the latest forecasts, and may want
to be prepared with sandbags.

Any steady rain across eastern and southern l.A. County should
turn to showers early Thu morning. Moist broad cyclonic west
northwest flow across the region will keep a chance of showers
across the region through the morning, but skies should become
partly cloudy in most areas in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
several degrees below normal Wed and thanksgiving day.

Long term (fri-mon) 19 210 pm.

Northwest flow pattern will set up across the region Thu night
and fri, and heights will be on the rise. The tail end of the
frontal system may bring a few showers to slo county fri, possibly
spreading into sba county Fri night, but if any rain falls, it
looks as though it will be light. Elsewhere, expect partly cloudy
skies of Fri and there should be a couple of degrees of warming in
most areas.

Some ridging is forecast to build into the region over the
weekend, so expect dry conditions with a warming trend. Temps
should be above normal in most areas, especially on Sunday.

Weak to moderate offshore flow is likely to occur Sunday into
Monday.

Aviation 20 0003z.

At 2300z at klax... The inversion was around 800 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 1200 feet with a temperature of 19
degrees celsius.

Generally high confidence in 00z tafs, withVFR conditions
expected across the area, except for a 60% chance of MVFR
cigs vsby forming at ksmx and klgb. MVFR vsby could occur
periodically at coast and valley sites through the period.

Klax... Moderate to high confidence in the 00z taf.VFR conditions
expected thru Tue afternoon except for periodic MVFR vsby due to
fog or haze tonight into Tue morning. There is also a 20% chance
of MVFR CIGS forming late tonight into Tue morning.

Kbur... High confidence in the 00z TAF withVFR conditions
expected through Tuesday. MVFR vsby could occur periodically,
especially during the late night to morning hours.

Marine 20 152 am.

For the outer waters... Moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory (sca) levels through tonight, then a cold front will
approach the northern waters Wednesday morning with increasing
southerly winds ahead of the front. There will be a short period
Wednesday afternoon that a (sca) might be needed. Higher chance in
pzz670 with a 40% chance for pzz673. Winds will shift to the west
to northwest after midnight Wednesday night into Thursday.

There is a 60% chance of (sca)level winds Thursday night through
Friday and higher chances across the entire outer waters by
Saturday.

For the inner waters north of point conception... Moderate
confidence that conditions will remain below SCA levels through
Saturday. Wednesday, south winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots
with a 30% chance of increasing to SCA levels.

For the inner waters south of point conception... Moderate to high
confidence in the current forecast. Winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA levels through Wed night, except for a
20%-30% chance of SCA level wind gusts Wed afternoon for the e
santa barbara channel zone (pzz650). There is a 40%-50% chance of
sca level wind gusts at times Thu afternoon through sat.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Db gomberg db
aviation... Smith
marine... Kaplan smith
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 10 mi33 min 66°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 12 mi33 min NE 7 G 9.9 56°F 64°F1015.4 hPa (-0.9)
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 24 mi23 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 63°F 65°F1015.3 hPa61°F
46262 24 mi33 min 66°F2 ft
PXAC1 28 mi39 min NW 4.1 G 4.1
BAXC1 29 mi39 min NE 8 G 8
PSXC1 30 mi33 min NE 2.9 G 4.1
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 30 mi33 min 66°F1015.5 hPa (-0.7)
PFXC1 31 mi33 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 58°F
PFDC1 31 mi33 min NNW 4.1 G 4.1
AGXC1 31 mi33 min N 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.8)
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 33 mi33 min 66°F2 ft
PRJC1 33 mi33 min NNE 5.1 G 6
46256 34 mi33 min 65°F2 ft
46253 40 mi33 min 67°F2 ft
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 40 mi42 min 64°F2 ft
46251 47 mi33 min 64°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Monica, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Monica, Santa Monica Municipal Airport, CA15 mi42 minNE 510.00 miFair55°F37°F53%1015.2 hPa
Los Angeles, Los Angeles International Airport, CA17 mi40 minENE 35.00 miFog/Mist54°F48°F83%1015.3 hPa
Van Nuys, Van Nuys Airport, CA20 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair51°F30°F46%1015.2 hPa
Hawthorne, Hawthorne Municipal Airport, CA20 mi40 minN 09.00 miFair55°F46°F72%1015.4 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA23 mi36 minNNW 30.25 miFog50°F48°F93%1015.9 hPa
Los Angeles / USC Campus Downtown, CA23 mi46 minNE 310.00 miFair55°F41°F59%1015.2 hPa
Burbank - Bob Hope Airport, CA24 mi40 minS 310.00 miFair51°F27°F39%1014.6 hPa

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Last 24hrE3NE3NE4E3E3CalmS3SW44SW4SW43S4CalmCalmCalmNE3N3N3N3N3CalmN3NE5
1 day agoN3CalmN3N3CalmE44SW6SW7SW6SW6SW5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmNE3E4E3NE3
2 days agoN3N3N3NE4NE5E3Calm4SW8SW8SW5SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3N3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, Municipal Pier, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PST     1.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:00 AM PST     5.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM PST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:39 PM PST     4.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.52.43.54.55.35.65.34.53.42.21.10.50.40.81.72.73.64.14.23.83.12.3

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Monica, California
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Santa Monica
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:37 AM PST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:41 AM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:31 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:58 AM PST     5.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:36 PM PST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:38 PM PST     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.21.62.53.64.65.45.75.44.63.42.21.10.50.50.91.82.83.74.24.33.93.12.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.