Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:29PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:11 AM EST (09:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:33AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 323 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 kt or less, increasing to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain likely or a chance of snow.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt or less, becoming se. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 323 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move across the waters through later today. Arctic high pressure will build over the waters Thur into Fri. The high will move off the southeast u.s. Coast late Fri and become anchored offshore through this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170848
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
348 am est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the coast today, bringing a mix of rain
and snow, with accumulations up to 2 to 3 inches inland. Cold
and dry arctic air will follow late today into Thursday.

Temperatures will warm into the weekend, as high pressure moves
offshore. Another cold front will bring rain chances early next
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Wednesday... A winter storm warning has been issued
for marlboro and robeson counties. A winter weather advisory
remains in effect for inland portions of forecast area. Greatest
amounts will between 2 to 3 inches along northern portions of
marlboro and robeson counties.

A potent mid to upper trough will push cold front south and
east through today. A weak coastal trough low well off shore
will maintain a light northerly flow along the coast while winds
inland will be more variable. Expect more of a northerly flow
over nc as front makes its way across but more of a westerly
flow over sc. This northerly flow should help to enhance some
isentropic lift as winds above the sfc increase out of the sw,
but the main support for lift will come from upper level
dynamics with strong shortwave and upper level jet. This system
will bring limited moisture return from the gulf with pcp water
values reaching up around .6 inches, but the strong dynamics
aloft will help to produce pcp across the area. The best support
will remain just north of our local forecast area, but should
reach just along our NW to NE boundaries.

The temperatures and dewpoint temps were holding just around
freezing overnight with a decent layer of high clouds across the
area. The column will continue to moisten up aloft with pcp
finally making it to the ground Wed morning west of i-95, mainly
between 8 and 10am. Sfc temps will be on the rise through the
morning and should rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s. At the
same time, temps aloft will drop. This type of column will
support either rain or snow. As it looks now, the rain and
warmer sfc temps should allow for melting of the snow and do not
expect much in the way of accumulations across most of the area.

Have increased MAX amts up between 2 and 3 inches across
northern portions marlboro and robeson counties, with greater
amounts north of local forecast area. Still looking like
northern portions of marlboro into robeson have greatest chc of
snow accumulations as burst of snow early to mid aftn may help
to produce the best accumulations closer to 3 inches. The brunt
of the pcp will come during the warmest time of day which
should act as a limiting factor for accumulations.

As the pcp spreads toward the coast it will start as rain most
likely between 3 and 5 pm and with the best lift to the north,
expect QPF to be much less as you head toward the coast and into
coastal sc and expect primarily rain with just a chc of snow in
the evening as the cold air moves in and the moisture moves
out. All pcp should end mainly as snow before midnight. Very
cold air will follow with deep CAA and gusty northerly winds
tonight. Temps will drop down near 20 by thurs morning with wind
chills in the lower teens.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... The deep upper air trough will be off the
coast by sunrise Thursday. Drier westerly mid and upper level flow
guarantees a couple of days of clear skies and dry weather. Surface
high pressure moving eastward along the gulf coast will build across
georgia and northern florida by Friday, then push out into the
atlantic Friday night.

Temperatures will remain well below normal Thursday when highs
should only reach 40-45 degrees. Warm advection up at 850 mb won't
really show up at the surface until Friday, so Thursday night will
again be quite cold with lows in the 20s down to the beaches. By
Friday highs should reach the mid 50s which is almost up to normal
levels for mid-january.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Surface high will shift east for the
weekend, moving offshore. Very dry air in place, precipitable
water will be under a quarter inch sat, ensure the region
remains dry. Temperatures will start warming Sat as weak low
level warm advection begins. The progressive mid-level pattern,
responsible for the surface high's rapid shift east, will
become a little more amplified as a southern stream shortwave
moves along the gulf coast this weekend. The wave weakens opens
up as it lifts into the southeast and it seems unlikely that it
will be accompanied by any rainfall as it passes late Sat night
and sun. Weak 5h ridge starts to build over the western atlantic
early next week which, coupled with low level warm advection,
leads to a warming trend Sun and mon.

Best precip chances during the period continue to be associated with
cold front crossing the area late Mon or Mon night. Parent low
remains displaced well north of the area, moving across the great
lakes and southern canada. Although there is a brief period of
moisture return ahead of the front, moisture will be limited and
current chc pop Mon and Mon night seems reasonable. Cold advection
is limited behind the front as the 5h trough lifts northeast instead
of moving overhead. Lack of cold advection combined with the return
of the 5h ridge over the western atlantic will keep temperatures
near to slightly above climo in the post front environment.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... Thickening and lowering clouds are expected through
15-18z across the area as an arctic cold front approaches from
the west. Light precipitation occurring on and just behind the
front will reach flo and lbt around 17z, probably beginning as
just a cold rain. Cold air pouring in from the west should
change this rain over to snow at flo and lbt by 19-20z with
visibilities expected to fall to 1-3 miles and ceilings diving
below 1000 feet at times. Models still have a good 3 hours
difference between them as to the exact time of the changeover
to snow making this the lowest confidence portion of the
forecast. An inch or two could accumulate in the lbt area, with
lesser amounts expected at flo.

For the coastal airports (ilm, myr, cre) rain won't arrive until
around 21z, and the changeover to snow here may not occur until
01z Thursday. Wilmington has a better potential than the myrtle
beach airports to experience ifr conditions during the evening
hours with any snow.

Clearing should advance across the area from west to east late
in the forecast period.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Small craft advisory remains in effect
for all waters today through Thursday morning into early
afternoon. A cold front will cross the waters later today
followed by a strong northerly surge with gusty winds up to 25
to 30 kts overnight into early thurs. This will produce a rapid
rise in seas this evening up to 4 to 7 ft peaking around
daybreak thurs.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Low pressure will move away from the u.S.

East coast Thursday while high pressure builds east along the gulf
coast. This will lead to decreasing northwest winds during the day
Thursday, backing more westerly Thursday night and Friday as the
high moves into alabama and georgia. The high will move off the
georgia coast Friday night.

Short-period wind waves will be supplemented by a 2-foot 10 second
swell from the east-southeast through the period generated by a
broad zone of northeasterly winds between the caribbean and
bermuda.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Weak surface high will quickly shift
east over the weekend. Southwest flow drops to around 10 kt by
sat morning. The center of the high expands over the western
atlantic with the surface pressure gradient becoming ill-
defined. Winds will drop under 10 kt late Sat night and remain
light and variable Sun with the surface ridge axis in the
region.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
scz023-024.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for scz017.

Nc... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
ncz096-105.

Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for ncz087.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Thursday for amz250-252.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Tra
long term... Iii
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi86 min NNW 1.9 1024 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi63 min N 1.9 G 5.8 45°F 46°F1024.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi42 min 47°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi41 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 46°F1025.1 hPa
WLON7 14 mi41 min 33°F 46°F1024.6 hPa
41108 22 mi41 min 45°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi63 min NNE 1.9 G 5.8 53°F 62°F1024.8 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 34 mi63 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 41°F 1025 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi31 min N 3.9 G 7.8 55°F 61°F1024.4 hPa41°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair32°F31°F99%1024.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi18 minN 010.00 miFair30°F28°F96%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N4N4N3N3N5N5N3CalmS5S3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN6N9N6N8N9N9NW12N7NW7NW8NW6N8N7N6N3N3N5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoN7NE8
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NE7N8N10N5NE5N5N5N3N4N4N4N4N5N8N7N7N4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Wed -- 01:06 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:04 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:00 PM EST     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.2-00.61.72.83.84.54.64.23.32.110.2-0.10.10.71.62.53.13.43.12.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:20 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:18 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:59 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:09 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.90.3-0.2-0.10.92.13.23.84.143.42.61.91.10.3-00.41.52.63.23.53.53

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.