Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:32PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:00 AM EDT (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 8:26PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 324 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft...then 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 324 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build across the area from the north through Thursday night. A more dynamic cold front will push across the area by late Fri. High pressure will follow for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 290718
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
318 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Relatively cooler and drier high pressure will build in from
the north beginning today. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Friday as warmer and more humid air returns ahead
of an approaching cold front. The cold front will sweep offshore
late Friday night. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong to
severe Friday. The weekend should be dry as high pressure takes
hold. Then early next week, a southern stream system will again
bring the risk for showers and thunderstorms.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 300 am Wednesday... A cold front is slowly making its way
through the area this morning. There has been some patchy fog
but overall the drier air seems to be keeping significant
development at bay. A weak pressure pattern will become better
defined as the potent storm system crawling through the central
u.S. Pushes high pressure down the east coast. With some very
modest cold air advection there should be some convective
cloudiness mostly across northern areas. Some mid level clouds
may move across the area tonight from a glancing system to the
south. Guidance is in good agreement on daytime highs a little
lower than Tuesday with middle 70s eastern areas, where there
will be more clouds and possibly 80s again inland. Thursday
morning lows will be in the lower to middle 50s.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/
As of 300 am Wednesday... A strong area of high pressure centered
across eastern canada at the start of the period and ridging
south across the carolinas will drift E with the ridge axis
moving offshore during thu. Low pressure across the missouri
valley Thu will move ene across the mid-west, ending up
offshore of the mid-atlantic states late Fri night. Its
accompanying warm front should reach the eastern carolinas
late Thu night and then move to our N on fri. A cold frontal
passage is expected later Fri night.

Still looks like a wet period beginning late Thu night and on
fri with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and
then coming to an end with the passage of a cold front late in
period.

The combination of upper level support and strong and deep moisture
return and lift should bring widespread half inch to one inch
rainfall amounts with amounts in excess of one and a half inches
possible.

There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms during this
time. 0-6 km effective bulk shear parameters have become more
conducive for severe weather. Instability does grow with mixed
layer CAPE values on the order of 500 to 1000 j/kg. These cape
values are certainly conservative when we talk about severe
weather in the carolinas this time of year. The instability may be
somewhat limited given that rainfall is expected to develop thu
night as isentropic upglide increases sharply ahead of warm
front. Clouds and rainfall should help to mitigate the
instability, especially early on, but a period of dry slotting
may allow clouds to thin during Fri which could support greater
instability and increase the severe risk.

Highs on Thu will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with sunshine
giving way to increasing clouds Thu afternoon. Lows Thu night
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with temps having a tendency
to rise overnight. Highs on Fri will be in the mid and upper 70s.

Any signifiant breaks in the clouds will allow temps to surge
into the lower 80s Fri afternoon. Lows late Fri night will drop
into the mid and upper 50s with around 60 at the beaches.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 300 am Wednesday... In the wake of this system, dry weather
and above normal temps are expected for the weekend as mid-
level ridging builds across the area and surface high pressure
to our N ridges s. Attention then will turn westward as next
potent southern stream system along the gulf coast Sun night
lifts to the NE and drags a warm front to the n. This will again
bring deep moisture into the carolinas, and with that, showers
and thunderstorms early next week. Timing differences have
decreased slightly and it looks like the greatest risk for
showers and thunderstorms will be Mon night. Showers and
thunderstorms should be increasing from the SW and W mon
afternoon with the risk decreasing from W to E during the day
tue as broad low pressure consolidates offshore of the mid-
atlantic states Tue and Tue night. Drier air will work into the
eastern carolinas during wed.

Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/
As of 0530z...VFR conditions expected through the period. Some
fog has developed to the north where there was more rainfall in
the past 24 hours. However the lower dewpoints have begun to
make progress from the northwest with lbt dropping six degrees
in the past hour. Can't rule out a brief period more along the
coast but confidence is not sufficient to include in the
forecast. Some scattered to broken ceilings of four thousand
feet should develop late morning moreso across the northern
areas as a push of cold air noses in from the northeast.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions through Thursday. MVFR/ifr
conditions likely in showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
fri/fri night.VFR conditions Sat thru sun.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Currently there is a west to southwest modest
flow across the waters. A front will continue to push south over the
next few hours leading to a northerly flow. Speeds will remain
modest along the lower end of a 10-15 knot range. A stronger
northeast surge will develop later today with winds increasing to 15-
20 knots where they will remain through tonight. Once again leaning
toward the lower end of the range. Regarding seas, some lingering
five footers will abate later this morning with 2-4 feet ensuing.

Later tonight some five footers will once again develop across the
outer waters.

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... A small craft advisory is expected
for all waters late Thu night and into Fri night.

A strong area of high pressure centered across eastern canada at
the start of the period and ridging south across the carolina
waters will drift E with the ridge axis moving offshore thu.

Low pressure across the missouri valley Thu will move ene
across the mid-west, ending up offshore of the mid- atlantic
states late Fri night. Its accompanying warm front should reach
the carolina waters late Thu night and then move N of the waters
on fri. A cold frontal passage is expected later Fri night.

Significant shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
develop Thu night and continue through Fri before ending fri
night.

The wind direction at the start of the period will be ne. Winds
will veer to easterly Thu afternoon, SE Thu night and S and sw
on fri. SW winds Fri night will shift to NW toward Sat morning.

The strongest winds will occur Fri into Fri night, 20 to 25 kt,
increasing Thu night and decreasing later Fri night.

The highest seas, 5 to 7 ft and up to about 8 ft near frying pan
shoals, are expected later Fri into Fri night. Seas will be
building Thu night and subsiding later Fri night.

Long term /Saturday through Monday/...

as of 300 am Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions
possible late on Mon and Mon night.

Low pressure will be intensifying south of new england sat
morning. Its attending cold front will be offshore by the start
of this forecast period. Low pressure will continue to intensify
as it moves E and then NE during the weekend. High pressure
centered across eastern canada will build south across the
carolina waters during the weekend with the ridge axis moving
offshore Sun night. Next in series of potent southern stream
systems will be approaching from the W on mon. Its attending
warm front is expected to move across the waters Mon night.

Nw winds will generally dominate Sat although an inverted
trough poking N may cause winds to back, especially across
southern waters ahead of reinforcing cold and dry push. Winds
late Sat night and Sun in the wake of this push will be ne. The
wind direction will veer to E later Sun afternoon and then ese
sun night. The wind direction will become SE during mon.

The highest wind speeds during this period are expected on mon
when they are expected to increase to 20 to 25 kt late day and
mon night. Wind speeds Sat through Sun night should be mainly 5
to 15 kt.

Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Sat morning, subsiding to mainly 2 to 3
ft Sat night and then 1 to 2 ft sun. There will be a tendency
for backswell to slow the slow the rate of subsiding seas
through the first part of the weekend. Expect seas will reverse
higher late Sun night and mon, possibly reaching small craft
advisory levels Mon night.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Shk
short term... Rjd
long term... Rjd
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi76 min Calm 60°F 1013 hPa59°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi53 min NNW 5.8 G 9.7 60°F 59°F1013.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi32 min 59°F3 ft
WLON7 14 mi43 min 59°F 61°F1014.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi43 min N 8 G 9.9 63°F 58°F1013.3 hPa
41108 22 mi44 min 59°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi53 min N 14 G 21 66°F 70°F1012.7 hPa
SSBN7 33 mi91 min 2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi31 min N 9.7 G 14 67°F 73°F1013.8 hPa63°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi76 minN 410.00 miFair61°F59°F97%1014.2 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi68 minN 310.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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W8SW7NW4CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3N4N5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4S4S5S3SW7S6S6S5S7S3CalmS4S3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S5SW4SW5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE8S8S4S5S6S5S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:03 AM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:17 AM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:42 PM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.30.8-0.4-0.8-0.50.41.73.14.24.84.63.82.51-0.2-0.8-0.60.21.63.14.55.35.44.8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:26 AM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:39 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:51 PM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.12.11.30.5-0.2-0.112.53.74.34.443.22.31.40.6-0.1-0.20.72.33.84.64.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.