Sunrise 6:52 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 9:19 PM   Moonset 6:37 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 250557 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 157 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New 06Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Clouds have slowly cleared out south of I20 over the last hour or so, however over performing morning cloud coverage mean model temps are 1 to 2 degrees too warm. Clouds have cleared over the last hour or so, meaning we may still catch up today.

A weak shortwave trough and sfc front slowly move through the area today bringing isolated light showers across portions of North and Central GA. Showers should be sparse and light, given the presence of the SFC high to the northeast. Little to no accumulation is expected (~0.01").

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the Low to mid 70s north of I-85 and closer to 80 South of I-85. Low tonight and tomorrow night will hang in the mid to upper 40s and low to mid 50s. The higher elevations will be several degrees cooler.

High pressure continues to build and move northeastward through tomorrow, promoting weak wedge development. Models currently resolve the wedge edge around the ATL metro, however this is likely under- represented. Winds will be light tomorrow at 0 to 5 mph for much of the area through the afternoon. Winds should pick up further from the East as ridging builds to the west.

SM

LONG TERM
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

On Friday, a broad mid-level ridge will settle in over the eastern CONUS, extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the Great Lakes region as the long term period begins. A strong (1030+ mb)
surface high pressure will meanwhile move into the New England area, at which point a CAD wedge will develop along the lee side of the Appalachians and spread into portions of northeast Georgia. Also at the surface, the cold front from the short term period will be lifting northward as a warm front. Mid-range guidance continues to keep the forecast area dry, but isolated light rain showers and increased cloud cover could be possible in the vicinity of the front, particularly in portions of north Georgia where warm air is lifted over cooler air within the wedge. Speaking of temperatures, after starting the morning mainly in the mid to upper 50s, diurnal heating will be limited within the wedge over the course of the day on Friday. Here, afternoon highs will be limited to the 60s to low 70s, as opposed to upper 70s elsewhere in north Georgia and in the low to mid 80s in central Georgia.

A low pressure system in the central Great Plains will advance northeastward Friday into Saturday, riding the north side of this ridge towards the Great Lakes region. A cold frontal boundary and associated precipitation are expected to stall out before reaching the forecast area. The gradual warming trend will continue through the weekend and in to early next as 1000-500 mb thicknesses increase under the influence of the ridge. High temperatures will climb a couple of degrees each day, and will be in the mid to upper 80s across the majority of the area by Monday afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will also set up on the back side of the ridge axis in the later part of the weekend, which will also lead to moisture return and increasing cloud cover in the forecast area. A second low pressure system will develop along the stalled frontal boundary, and advance northeastward along roughly the same track as the first on Sunday into Monday. The advance of the low will help the front advance eastward towards Georgia, which will bring the next appreciable chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Long- term guidance continues to trend slower with the progression of this system, with precipitation spreading into far north Georgia by Monday evening, which will advance southward overnight into Tuesday.

King

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions prevail across the area early this morning. The weak frontal band presently extends from MCN to CSG, with SCT-BKN clouds at around 6kft along with some high clouds. A few other high clouds are farther N around the Atlanta metro area. Some patchy fog is expected to develop near and S of CSG prior to daybreak, but have not included any significant vsby or cig restrictions at the terminal at this time. Winds will be light and fairly variable today. The wind direction at ATL is forecast to veer to NNE around 11Z this morning before shifting back to NW by early afternoon. However, due to the light nature of these winds, there is lower confidence.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium for wind shift timing, high for other elements.

SEC

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 56 74 58 77 / 0 10 10 10 Atlanta 60 77 61 78 / 0 10 0 0 Blairsville 52 67 54 69 / 0 20 10 10 Cartersville 57 77 60 78 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 61 86 64 82 / 0 10 0 0 Gainesville 57 71 59 75 / 0 20 10 10 Macon 59 83 61 81 / 0 10 0 10 Rome 56 78 60 78 / 0 10 0 0 Peachtree City 58 80 60 79 / 0 10 0 0 Vidalia 61 83 62 82 / 0 10 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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