Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:13PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:59AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1227 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Then 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1227 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A front will over the coastal carolinas...with several waves of low pressure forming along the front through much of the period. Small craft advisory conditions could develop Wednesday and Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 221437
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1037 am edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
Waves of low pressure will develop along stalled cold front
producing increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through
mid week. A cold front trailing from a deep low pressure system
over the ohio valley on Thursday will push through bringing the
final round of storms to the area. High pressure will build in
on Friday maintaining quieter weather for much of the weekend.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 1000 am Monday... Waves of low pressure will move along a
stalled frontal boundary which appears to be running from SW to
ne just west of local forecast area. This will maintain a deep
sw flow of warm and moist air with dewpoint temps near 70
degrees. The moisture profiles show rh greater than 80 percent
from near the sfc up through the mid to upper levels. Pcp water
values remain above 1.75 inches increasing up near 2 inches for
most of tonight. With deep moisture present, any forcing
mechanism will help to produce showers and thunderstorms over
the area. Shortwave energy rotating around a deepening mid to
upper trough digging down from the upper great lakes combined
with increased jet dynamics will produce periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Overall expect plenty of
clouds with some breaks of Sun and a generally slower rise to
temps but enough instability to initiate showers and storms
especially along the sea breeze front or any other localized
boundaries. The hrrr actually shows some minor development
along the sea breeze closer to the coast earlier this afternoon
with more widespread activity developing along waves of low
pressure along front just along the west to northwest periphery
of our local forecast area closer to the vicinity of i-95
corridor later this aftn into early this evening. SPC shows
marginal risk for severe storms in that area with main threat of
damaging wind gusts.

Daytime highs should be in the middle 80s area wide and
overnight lows for tonight should be similar to this mornings
values, around 70 in most places.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/
As of 300 am Monday... A broad upper trough will drive a slow-
moving cold front across eastern CONUS during the short term,
with the front moving across the eastern carolinas on Wednesday
night. A series of short waves rounding the base of the upper
trough will combine with a relatively moist and boundry-rich
airmass to make for an extended period of unsettled weather.

Temperatures will hover around seasonal levels, with the warm sw
flow being balanced somewhat by overcast conditions and period
of precipitation.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/
As of 300 pm Sunday... Relatively narrow warm sector spreads
into the area on Wednesday. The warm front early may bring some
light rain but the approach of the cold front yield the more
significant rise in pops as well as the chance for higher
rainfall amounts. Wind fields not quite as strong as previously
forecast and instability should be limited by cloud cover so
severe weather threat seems minimal. The main energy associated
with the upper trough crosses Thursday but the deepest moisture
will be well offshore by then. Even so, the strength of the main
vorticity MAX should be able to wring out a few showers
especially if breaks of sunshine provide some instability. Deep
layer westerly flow will bring sunshine on Friday with much
lower humidity levels that will recover slightly into Saturday.

A healthy disturbance may come across in this zonal flow on
Sunday bringing some minor rain chances.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
As of 12z Monday... Forecast challenge for today will be timing
of convection which is likely to impact at least a couple of the
taf sites today. Current line of convection moving east across
the eastern carolinas moving slow and weakening. Flo and lbt
seem clear for now but confidence in this is low. Better chance
for convective impacts will be with the afternoon sea-breeze
front.

Extended outlook... Reduced flight categories will be possible
in periodic showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. The
strongest convective activity will occur Wednesday.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 1100 am Monday... South to southeast flow will increase
from 10 to 15 kts up to 15 to 20 kts as gradient tightens
between cold front to the west and high pressure to the east.

This persistent southerly push will produce an increase in seas
into early tues morning from 2 to 4 ft this afternoon up to 3
to 5 ft. Wna model data shows a fairly sharp rise heading into
tues with the greatest rise occurring after the near term
period, through the day on tues.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...

as of 3 am Monday... Although there will be some fluctuations,
the overall trend during the short term will be one of gradually
increasing SW winds and building seas in advance of a slowly
advancing cold front. The front will be over or near the waters
in the early morning hours of Thursday, at which point we will
likely see some loosening of the gradient and a bit of a
decrease in winds and seas. Until then, though, it is likely
that small craft advisory conditions will be breached on
Wednesday or more likely Wednesday night. Expect frequent
period of shower and thunderstorm activity during this period
also.

Long term /Wednesday through Friday/...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Broad swath of southwesterly flow in
place on Wednesday between large atlantic high and cold front
approaching from the west. Winds may not ramp up to advisory
levels but seas likely will. This boundary will turn the flow
from SW to W by Thursday as well as a small decrease in overall
wind speed allowing seas to abate below advisory thresholds. The
circulation and gradient associated with the front will finally
move east of the area by Friday as high pressure builds into
florida and the bahamas. Locally wind will remain westerly and
continue to abate. Seas will follow suit.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Rek
long term... mbb
aviation... Rek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 6 mi112 min WSW 8 80°F 1019 hPa69°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi89 min SSW 7.8 G 16 76°F 75°F1017.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi68 min 75°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi61 min S 15 G 17 77°F 77°F1016.3 hPa
WLON7 11 mi61 min 82°F 77°F1017 hPa
41108 26 mi80 min 77°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi89 min SSW 12 G 18 76°F 76°F1017.6 hPa
SSBN7 35 mi157 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 36 mi89 min SW 12 G 18 77°F 76°F1018.2 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi47 min SW 12 G 16 77°F 77°F3 ft1017.9 hPa69°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi42 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1017.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi44 minSSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F70°F63%1016.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E7E5E5E6E3CalmE5E5E3E4SE3SE3CalmS6S7SW7SW6SW8SW8
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1 day agoSW7SW9SW6SW9S6SW4S4SW3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3E3E3E7E5E5
2 days agoSW8SW8SW6SW8SW7SW7SW5SW6SW4SW4SW6SW4SW6SW6W5W5W5W3W5W6W9
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Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     4.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.10.61.72.93.84.24.23.72.71.60.80.2-0.3-012.53.74.54.74.53.72.71.8

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.51.22.23.13.73.93.632.11.20.4-0.1-0.10.51.72.93.94.44.33.832.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.