Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:24PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:36 AM EDT (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 400 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.gale warning in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt offshore. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 400 Am Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Developing low pressure south of cape fear will move northward up the nc coast today and interact with strong high pressure over land, bringing a period of gale force winds north of little river inlet. This low will move north of the local waters Thursday. A cold front will cross the coast late Friday, followed by high pressure through the weekend with improving marine conditions trending.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200731
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
331 am edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure off the coast will slowly move onshore today
into Thursday spreading rain and breezy conditions over the
area. A drying trend will begin later Friday and continue
through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds and
rain into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 3 am Wednesday... A deepening, oceanic pressure feature will
undergo amplification today, carving a sharp trough axis offshore
that approaches CAPE fear at 3z 11p. Already in the kltx vwp, we
are seeing 30 knots of NE wind at 2000 feet, and e-se trajectories
from 925-800 mb reflected, which is helping to guide a broken line
of marine showers, with embedded moderate downpours landward, 60-80
nm offshore presently. The shra-line represents the trough-axis
itself commercing a deepening trend, while shifting landward. The
resultant pressure gradient from interaction with a strong wedge of
high pressure, will produce brief gales offshore, while making for a
windy day at beaches, especially SE nc.

Low-level stability to remain strong, aided by evaporative cooling in
initial virga, such that, from 18z today through daybreak Thursday,
hourly temps may steadily fall. Nonetheless there are signals of a
low-end spike in mu MLCAPE along the coast and offshore to warrant a
slight chance of a TSTM tonight. Since the trough axis may never
make it to land, any convection offshore would become more elevated
and detached from surface on encountering the wedge, a phasing to
stratiform type rain inland.

Hazards include wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible at SE nc
beaches and icw. Strong spring tides will bring minor coastal
flooding and high water run-up at high tide this morning, and an
advisory is posted along beaches, all beaches given the approaching
elevated low-level winds. System pulls away early thu, pop winds on
the downtrend. Near seasonable high Thursday, and dewpoints to take
a nice climb this period as moisture is thrown ashore.

Short term Thursday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Mid-level trough axis will be swinging
through as the period begins. Moisture at the base of the trough may
eek out a weak shower during the first part of Thu night given
fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, but the abundance of dry air
makes the chances for measurable rainfall rather low for most areas.

Virga is more likely, but given the nocturnal timing it would be
hard to see any. Remainder of the period will be about deep
northwest flow, very dry air, and 2 shots of cold air. The first, on
thu night, is more mild and drops temperatures near climo for fri.

Reinforcing shot of cold air arrives Fri night, dropping temps below
climo for the end of the period.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 3 am Wednesday... Shortwave mid-level ridge develops over the
southeast Sat into sun. This feature moves off the coast early mon
as shortwave drops south out of central canada. The shortwave helps
induce troughing over the eastern conus, leading to a more active
pattern as the period ends.

-high pressure building in from the west for the weekend with
temperatures below climo Sat rising to near climo sun.

-high moves farther offshore early Mon with increasing deep
southwest flow increasing warm moist advection over the
southeast.

-shower chances are limited Mon afternoon but increase mon
night as cold front arrives. Confidence is low given long time
ranges.

-very low confidence Tue given lack of agreement between medium
range guidance. For now maintaining unsettled but warm
conditions.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 05z... Deteriorating aviation conditions, especially
coastal terminals, as MVFR ceilings spread inland later this
afternoon and tonight, as a coastal trough impinges the coast,
and interacts with strong high pressure. Rain however will
likely remain confined mostly to the nc terminals, favored at
the coast, where periods of ifr are possible into this evening.

Ne winds to gusts at times, highest kilm to kmyr. Rain to taper
off by or just after 6z thu, at end of TAF cycle, winds trending
to NW and diminishing as the low pulls away to the N late, MVFR
cigs in wake of this.

Wind shear for kilm for wind-max 2000 feet 140@37kt aft 4z tngt.

Extended outlook... MVFR late Wednesday into Thursday with
exiting storm system.VFR returns Friday into weekend as drying
commences.

Marine
As of 3 am Wednesday... Dangerous marine period upcoming as
winds and waves increase in response to a coastal trough
deepening and interacting with a strong wedge of high pressure
as it nears CAPE fear tonight. This has prompted gale flags from
little river inlet northward today, SCA flags to the south.

Large offshore waves will form due to the intense E fetch on the
seaward side of the deepening trough, generating E waves 8-9
feet every 9-10 seconds today and tonight before decreasing in
amplitude Thursday. Surfers to hit the waves Thursday in
residual wave energy and offshore wind flow. A extended period
of SCA may be required into Thursday as seas recover offshore.

Isolated tstms possible tonight, to make treacherous marine
conditions even more perilous, and navigation offshore is
discouraged. Ssts 55-58 degrees inshore currently.

High pressure will build over the waters from the west-northwest
late in the week and into the weekend. Increasing offshore flow will
follow a pair of cold fronts, the first moves offshore late thu
night with the second passing late Fri night. Although there
will be some cold advection following each front, the gradient
will not be particularly tight and speeds are likely to remain
under 20 kt into sat. Seas in the 3 to 5 ft range Thu night into
early Fri will steadily drop in response to offshore flow. High
moves overhead during the weekend with winds becoming light and
variable. Seas will be 3 ft or less by Sat morning, dropping to
2 ft or less later Sat and for sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt this morning for scz054-
056.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 10 am edt this morning for ncz106-
108-110.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 am to 11 am edt this morning for
ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for amz254-256.

Gale warning until 3 pm edt this afternoon for amz250-252.

Near term... 08
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi37 min 56°F7 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi43 min NNE 17 G 21 47°F 55°F1022.4 hPa
WLON7 11 mi43 min 47°F 55°F1022.6 hPa
41108 26 mi37 min 59°F5 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi29 min NE 25 G 33 51°F 58°F1020.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi29 min N 7.8 G 12 48°F 59°F1022.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi37 min NNE 25 G 31 54°F 69°F1020.9 hPa (-3.0)51°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi44 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast47°F28°F48%1022.9 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi57 minNNE 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast47°F30°F52%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3NE6E4NE5E8SE7SE7S5S4S3CalmCalmNW4N6N6N12
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2 days agoCalmCalmN4N6N5N5N6NE6N6N8N6N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
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Wed -- 03:26 AM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:24 AM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:59 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 09:54 PM EDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.50.4-0.5-0.50.623.44.34.74.743.12.21.20.1-0.40.11.42.844.74.94.5

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
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Wed -- 02:51 AM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:41 AM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:20 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:09 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.50.3-0.5-0.7-0.11.12.53.74.54.64.23.32.11-0-0.6-0.40.51.83.14.14.64.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.