Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:06PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:15 AM EST (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 10 kt or less. Seas 3 ft. A chance of rain late this morning, then a slight chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 901 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak coastal trough moving across the area this morning will move north during the day. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday night, followed by cooler high pressure for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 191404
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
904 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure off the coast will bring a few morning showers.

A dry cold front will sweep offshore Tuesday afternoon and
evening, leaving cool and dry air across the carolinas
Wednesday through thanksgiving, and into Friday. A developing
low pressure system may bring a wet day next Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 910 am Monday... Forecast is in good shape this morning as
rainfall is exiting the area to the northeast. Cloud cover will
be next to decrease albeit at a much slower rate. Previous
discussion follows:
weak coastal trough and surface wave
moving across the area this morning will lift northeast today.

Clouds and any lingering rain showers also lift north with the
feature. Light rain will continue across the area through mid-
morning or so before weak isentropic lift shifts farther north.

Rainfall amounts will be on the low side with most areas likely
to get under a tenth of an inch. Drying below 10k ft commences
this afternoon following the exit of the weak low, although
moisture will end up trapped below an inversion around 4k ft.

The trapped moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy today despite
precipitable water dropping from around 1.25" this morning to
near 0.50" by mid-afternoon. Lack of any real advection within
the boundary layer today (despite the relatively strong warm
advection aloft) and cloud cover will keep highs a little below
climo and slightly cooler than yesterday for most areas. Low
level moisture lingers overnight with clouds and light southwest
winds increasing as dry cold front approaches from the west.

Period ends before the front reaches the area with clouds and
boundary layer winds keeping lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 330 am Monday... Frontal passage highlights this period,
and mostly a dry one. While adequate column moisture prevails
ahead of the front, lack of forcing and convergence, with a
moderately swift downslope bl-850 flow should largely inhibit
vigorous updraft growth. As such no mentionable pop values were
painted for Tuesday with no over-running in the cards either.

A few showers from lbt to eyf to burgaw may skirt through with
little, trace, or no accumulations during Tuesday prior to
frontal passage. Cold air advection debuts in wake of this
feature, bringing below normal temperatures Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with isolated frost possible inland early
Thursday. The silver-lining for Wednesday, higher sunshine
minutes.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Expect sunny weather for mid week,
including thanksgiving day, but it will remain on the cool side.

High pressure will migrate eastward from the lower mississippi
valley across the south Wed aftn as another area of high
pressure builds down from canada. As this high builds south from
canada, it will become the dominant feature. It will provide a
reinforcing shot of cooler air into thurs but otherwise should
not be noticeable. Therefore, do not expect any clouds or
weather but may wake to slightly cooler weather thanksgiving
day. Overall, expect temps in the mid 30s to around 40 overnight
and MAX temps in in the mid 50s to around 60 Wed through thurs.

A wedge looks to be developing on Fri as cool and dry high
pressure extends down from the north as coastal trough warm
front begins to develop. This should help to increase clouds
through Fri along the coast and possibly some warmer temps along
the coast in a more on shore flow. By Fri night, a storm system
moving across the central CONUS will deepen with mid to upper
trough pushing a cold front east. This will help to kick warm
front inland and north through Fri night into Sat with plenty of
clouds and pcp spreading over the carolinas. Low pressure may
develop on the tail end of this front as it runs up through the
southeast which may help to enhance the pcp across the area. May
prove to be a fairly decent rainmaker for next weekend. Drier
air and clearing should make its way in on the back end of this
system as it lifts off to the north late sat, leaving better
weather for the latter half of the weekend. Temps should warm
into the weekend as warm front lifts north leaving temps in the
60s to around 70.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
As of 12z... Ceilings unfortunately are likely to bounce around today
with light to moderate rain ending in a few hours. The NAM appears
to be way too pessimistic this afternoon at ilm with lifr ceilings.

Predominately MVFR with pockets of ifr is more likely. Light
northeast flow this morning, becoming mainly westerly this
afternoon. Deep moisture leaves the region this afternoon, but a
MVFR ceiling will probably remain.

Extended outlook...VFR before a cold front Tue afternoon evening
which could produce brief MVFR conditions.VFR throughout the
remainder of the period.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Monday... Weak coastal trough and associated surface
low in the area will lift northeast today. Light and variable
winds across the waters this morning will become west-southwest
later today, but with speeds remaining under 10 kt. Gradient
starts to increase overnight as dry cold front approaches from
the west, increasing speeds to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
will run 2 to 3 ft through the period with the slight increase
in offshore flow late in the period expanding coverage of 2 ft,
short period seas.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 330 am Monday... Moderate W and N winds will dominate this
period ahead of and behind a cold frontal passage offshore
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ahead, during, and behind the
front, gusts to 20 kt will be common, and an 'exercise caution'
headline may be needed. No significant rain or tstms expected
over the 0-20 nm waters Tue wed, isolated brief showers at best
north of CAPE fear Tuesday.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Another area of high pressure will build
down from canada building into the area thurs into Fri with a
decent spike in winds and seas. NE winds will shift around to
the east and then SE to south late Fri into Sat as coastal
trough warm front moves inland and north. Seas should rise into
sca thresholds thurs night briefly and then come down fri
morning, but should build rapidly again Fri night in increasing
on shore to southerly push with advisory conditions probable.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 08
near term... Iii 15
short term... 08
long term... Rgz
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi16 min 65°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi68 min NNE 12 G 18 58°F 65°F1020 hPa
WLON7 11 mi28 min 58°F 53°F1020.4 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi28 min N 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
41108 26 mi16 min 65°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi68 min NE 12 G 18 67°F 72°F1019.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi68 min N 12 G 16 57°F 63°F1020.5 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi26 min NNW 12 G 16 67°F 72°F5 ft1019.8 hPa64°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi36 minN 710.00 miOvercast58°F55°F91%1020.3 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi23 minN 910.00 miOvercast58°F54°F87%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE5NE5NE5NE5E4N4NE3CalmNE3NE4CalmN4N3NE3N3N4NE4N4N7N4N7N7N8
1 day agoNE6NE6E5SE4E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3N4NE4NE3N4NE4NE3NE3E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
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Mon -- 02:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:10 PM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:14 PM EST     4.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.71.82.83.644.13.72.921.30.70.30.51.42.53.33.94.143.22.21.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:53 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:52 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:38 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:15 PM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.42.43.23.83.93.73.22.51.81.20.70.71.222.93.63.93.83.42.71.91.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.