Saturday, April21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:49PM Saturday April 21, 2018 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 323 Am Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Mon..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Mon night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Periods of rain.
Tue..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 323 Am Edt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build over the area from the north through Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday and Tuesday. The low will slowly move northeast, away from the region, on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210600
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
200 am edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build into the carolinas through
the weekend, bringing dry weather with chilly temperatures.

Slow-moving low pressure will cross the southeastern u.S.

Monday through Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall with
continued below-normal temperatures. Another system may affect
the carolinas Thursday into Friday.

Near term through today
As of 945 pm Friday... Dewpoints rising quicker than forecast,
and under clear skies and light wind, this will only help the
prospects for fog overnight, and will expand this potential in
the overnight forecasts. No other significant changes.

As of 630 pm Friday... Radar wind profiler showing an easing and
backing wind column early this evening, now, 10 knots or less
in the lowest 5000 feet. Goes-east visible data showing a
cloudless sky over all of the carolinas. Hourly temperatures
will fall through 5 am before gradually rising, while dewpoints
climb slowly through the night, into the low 40s by daybreak. 10
meter winds should hold at 3-6 mph overnight. These factors
will lead to patchy fog along the coastal interior where
slightly higher dewpoints will reside, and away from the higher
coastal winds. The combination of low-levels near saturation
into the predawn, and chilly pockets of middle to upper 30s,
results in patches of frost over portions of pender, central
brunswick, and robeson counties at first light.

As of 300 pm Friday... A 500 mb ridge over the southern plains will
move into georgia and the southern appalachians by late Saturday.

Dry northwesterly mid and upper level flow ahead of this ridge will
continue. At the surface, canadian high pressure covering most of
the great lakes region will develop a secondary center along the
virginia coast Saturday afternoon.

Light winds and clear skies tonight should promote very good
radiation cooling. My forecast lows are at the very bottom end of
guidance, ranging from the upper 30s to around 40 inland with a
sliver of mid 40s on the beaches. I've got mid 30s forecast across
the normally colder locations across SE north carolina and have
added patchy frost to the forecast here as well. Blueberry growers,
whose farms are often located on the nocturnally cold peat soils,
may have some concern tonight.

Sunny skies are expected Saturday, another weak seabreeze along the
coast should keep the beaches 5-10 degrees cooler than inland areas.

Forecast highs range from the lower 70s across the pee dee region to
the mid 60s near the coast.

Short term tonight through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... High pressure slides east of the area Saturday
night, passing by well to our north. Temperatures will be held a bit
below climatology in the NE flow with a mainly clear sky brought by
the downsloping mid level flow. Wit the high progressing further off
the midatlantic coast on Sunday the door will open up to moisture
influx. Cloud cover will increase from SW to ne. Some of the
guidance that has been suggesting that rain could start breaking out
soon thereafter has been discounted as being too fast. This will
eventually start to change heading into Sunday night as the
moistening deepens in response to approaching upper troughiness
tilting flow to the southwest. Pops will increase though rainfall
amounts expected to remain light and generally confined to sc zones
Sunday night.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Cutoff low will continue to move east
along the gulf coast states Mon into tues spreading clouds and
rain across the area from south to north. Increasing moist on
shore flow will push pcp water values up to near 1.5 inches late
mon into tues. The center of the low should reach the sc coast
tues night and then track up along the carolina coast lifting
off to the northeast late wed. The best moisture and lift should
come together to produce the greatest QPF Mon night through
tues with fairly widespread amounts between a half inch and an
inch with locally higher amounts.

Some dry air should wrap in with westerly flow on the back end
of the system on wed, but lingering upper level energy could
keep some lingering clouds and showers around. By thurs, another
cutoff low will track across the appalachian mtns, with
increased potential for clouds and pcp late thurs into fri.

Overall a damp week ahead with a good amount of clouds and pcp
through the week.

Temps running on the cooler side on Mon will return toward
normal tues into wed. Overall temps will remain near or just
below climo through much of the week.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 06z... Although a period of MVFR or ifr fog is possible at
the coastal sites during the next few hours, especially at
kcre, these restrictions are unlikely to last for any length of
time. As such have carriedVFR for all sites through the entire
forecast period. Northeast winds this morning become more
easterly later this morning and eventually east to southeast by
afternoon.

Extended outlook...VFR. Mon periods of MVFR ra. Tue periods of
ifr ra becoming MVFR. WedVFR.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 630 pm Friday... Spectral plots show wave frequencies
centered near 7 seconds, from the e. Chop is decreasing and will
be light overnight. Inshore ssts have leveled off at 62-64 deg.

The atmosphere is starved of moisture aloft, so no tstms or
marine showers. All in all, very manageable marine conditions
through tonight, tides are running normally, and little hazard
expected in the near term.

As of 300 pm Friday... Sprawling canadian high pressure over the
great lakes will develop a secondary center along the virginia
coast Saturday afternoon. This should maintain northeasterly
winds along our portion of the carolina coast, with a weak
seabreeze expected to turn nearshore wind directions more
directly onshore Saturday afternoon. All models are in excellent
agreement and there is high confidence in this scenario.

Residual strong northeasterly winds most of this morning maintained
a hybrid 6-7 second northeasterly swell. Now that this wind is
diminishing, look for waves to quickly subside this evening. By 8 or
9 pm seas within 20 miles of shore should be only 1-2 feet! The
'exercise caution' headline will be allowed to expire at 3 pm, and
no advisories are needed for the next 24 hours.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... High pressure progressing eastward and
staying well north of the area all period. This will turn flow
onshore Saturday night with wind and seas remaining quite
light small. This will hold true most of Sunday as well save for
a gradual increase in wind speed. Things then ramp up with the
approach of low pressure from the west Sunday night. Expect
conditions to deteriorate to near advisory levels, though the
flags will likely go up this period to incorporate further
deterioration later on early in the long term.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Low pressure system will move east across
the gulf coast states to the coast of sc by tues night and then
will track NE parallel to the carolina coast. A strong on shore
flow will persist Mon into tues in a tightened gradient flow
between this low pressure system and high pressure moving slowly
off the northeast coast. Winds will diminish as they back from
e-se to n-ne tues night as the center of the low tracks
northeast becoming elongated just off the carolina coast.

Eventually an off shore w-sw flow will develop late Wed as the
low exits off to the northeast.

Overall, expect this onshore push of easterly winds up to 25 to
30 kts to push seas up through Mon into tues, from near 6 ft mon
morning up to possibly 10 to 12 ft by tues morning and then
subsiding slowly as winds back around further becoming off shore
wed. Expect SCA conditions through much of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... Rgz
aviation... Iii


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 6 mi165 min NNW 1.9 49°F 1028 hPa45°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi142 min E 5.8 G 9.7 59°F 60°F1027.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi30 min 60°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi42 min ESE 8 G 8.9 62°F1027.4 hPa
WLON7 11 mi42 min 65°F1027 hPa
41108 26 mi30 min 61°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi82 min E 9.7 G 18 60°F 66°F1027.6 hPa
SSBN7 35 mi188 min 1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 36 mi82 min ESE 7.8 G 12 58°F 61°F1027.1 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi30 min ENE 12 G 19 62°F 66°F1026.8 hPa (-0.4)39°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair43°F40°F90%1027.4 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi37 minN 09.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N9N8N7NE9NE10
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E9SE10SE4E4SE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW10
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2 days agoSW9
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:27 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:27 PM EDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.84.84.43.62.71.81.10.40.20.71.933.743.93.42.51.60.90.30.10.71.9

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:05 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:41 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.44.33.72.81.910.40.20.51.32.233.53.53.22.61.810.40.10.41.22.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.