Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:58 AM EST (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 344 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 344 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure remains off to the northeast today. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday with brief gale conditions expected ahead of the front. High pressure then builds in over weekend, bringing improving marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230835
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
335 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift off shore bringing a considerable
warmup today. Gusty showers will accompany a cold front
that will cross the area Thursday morning. High pressure will
build in from the northwest late in the week. The high will
shift south of the area early next week. Temperatures near
to slightly below normal into the weekend will start warming
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... Latest sfc analysis shows 1035 mb high
pressure centered just off the va nc coast with 1007 mb low pressure
over mo. The high pushes farther offshore today allowing for onshore
flow to continue over the local area. Lowered rain chances for this
morning due to the strength of the high and weak forcing for ascent.

There will be some increasing warm air advection through the day
while a warm front moves northward and with moisture profiles
somewhat increasing through the day, maintained a slight chance-
chance of a shower especially over western areas. Temps noticeably
warmer than the last couple days... Highs in the low mid 60s.

For tonight, maintained low chance pops out ahead of the approaching
cold front with continued meager forcing. Best chance of rain is
between 09-15z Thursday in association with the cold front and
potent mid-level shortwave trough. Rainfall totals up to around an
inch possible area-wide. Also expect gusty winds out ahead of the
front, from both the gradient winds and moreso any convective
elements showers, due to a 70-80 kt low-level jet. Will mention
gusts to 30-40 mph in the hwo.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Cold front will be in the region as the
period begins, likely with showers ongoing as well as the
possibility of an isolated thunderstorm along the coast.

Although the event looks to be a typical high shear low cape
setup, the timing is not at all favorable. The front will be
crossing the area during the time of lowest CAPE with only a
strong low level jet to aid forcing. Additionally both the gfs
and ECMWF are showing signs of convection along the fl gulf
coast, something that typically hinders convection across
coastal carolina. At this point do not anticipate any severe
weather, but something to keep an eye on. Cold advection lags
the front and Thu afternoon will likely end up mild with gusty
west winds. Might even see some clearing before the Sun sets.

Cold air arrives Thu night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Thickness and 850 temps rapidly drop, with the later
dropping as much as 8 degrees c in 12 hours. Mixing will help keep
lows overnight near climo Fri morning despite clearing skies and
deep dry air. High continues to build in from the west Fri into fri
night keeping temperatures near to below climo despite plenty of sun
in the afternoon. Precipitable water drops under 0.30" with forecast
soundings showing a bit of a subsidence inversion. Boundary layer
winds weaken and become more easterly Fri night as the center of the
high moves closer to the region. Winds may not go completely calm,
especially along the coast, but radiational cooling should be able
to have some effect. Lows will likely end up below climo with temps
ending up in the mid to upper 20s for much of the area.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 am Wednesday... Mid-level trough will remain over the eastern
conus through the period, with the axis remaining west of the area
into next week.

-temperatures will be near to below climo through the weekend,
trending slightly above next week.

-west to northwest flow aloft will prevent any meaningful moisture
return, precipitable water will be at or below 0.60" through the
period.

-low pressure will pass well off the coast early next week as
another low passes northwest of the area. This low may move a
cold front and increased rain chances into the area late tue.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... An influx of low-level moisture has brought CIGS at myr
and flo to near MVFRVFR. Expect this to continue with a brief
periods of MVFR, especially at flo. Myr is seeing northeasterly
winds return and drying out the low-levels allowing for ovc skies to
become bkn to sct and rising cigs. Northeasterly winds will keep dry
air in place long enough to delay the onset of flight restrictions
elsewhere until winds become easterly around 09z. Expect areas of
patchy fog in the morning as the warm front moves onshore bringing
low-level moisture with it. Areas inland will remain cloudy with
little chance of fog. Expect largely MVFR at inland terminals
throughout the forecast period andVFR with intermittent MVFR at the
coastal terminals. Isolated areas of very light showers, drizzle,
and sprinkles will impact the area beginning around 12z and lasting
through much of the day on Wednesday until around 23z. A line
of heavy showers and storms will impact the terminals after the
end of the forecast period. Expect CIGS to fall to MVFR by 23z
at all terminals preceding the line of showers.

Extended outlook... MVFR overnight Wednesday into Thursday due to
showers and a passing cold front.VFR Friday through Sunday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions daytime
today with high pressure just off to the ne. Expect 10-20 kt se
winds with 3-5 ft seas. Winds and seas then ramp up tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Converted the gale watch to a warning,
from 06z-18z Thursday, with frequent gusts up to 35-40 kt expected
due to a 70-80 kt low-level jet despite cool ssts. Seas up to 8-11
ft. Chances for sea fog not high enough to include mention in the
forecast attm.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Gale warning ongoing at the start of the
period will transition to a small craft advisory as cold front
pushes east of the waters and westerly flow develops. Gradient
starts to relax Thu afternoon with west flow becoming northwest
thu night as colder air arrives. Northwest winds around 15 kt
thu night drop to around 10 kt Fri and Fri night, becoming north
and then northeast as they slowly weaken. Double digit seas are
expected prior to the passage of the cold front. Once offshore
flow develops seas will start to diminish, but seas are likely
to remain over 6 ft into Fri morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft on fri
slowly subside ending up 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Surface high over or just south of the
waters at the start of the period will gradually shift
southeast. Weak gradient will keep winds light into Sun before
more defined gradient leads to increasing west-northwest flow.

Late in the period the highs moves farther south and light west
or even southwest winds may develop. Speeds under 10 kt during
the period along with varying direction will keep seas 2 to 3 ft
sat and 2 ft or less on sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm est
this afternoon for ncz107.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 1 pm est Thursday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi50 min SSE 7.8 G 12 56°F 53°F1031.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi58 min 53°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi58 min E 13 G 15 54°F 1031.5 hPa (-2.5)
WLON7 11 mi58 min 36°F 45°F1031.3 hPa (-2.4)
41108 26 mi58 min 52°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi50 min SSE 14 G 19 59°F 58°F1031.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi50 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 52°F1030.7 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi48 min E 9.7 G 14 59°F 64°F1031.7 hPa52°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi65 minE 310.00 miFair35°F33°F93%1031.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi78 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F47°F91%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N5N6N6N9NE7NE7E6NE5E5E6NE8NE3CalmE3NE5E5E4E3CalmNE6E4Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
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Wed -- 04:45 AM EST     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:44 AM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:17 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.51.50.5-0.4-0.701.53.14.24.74.84.43.62.61.60.5-0.4-0.30.623.244.3

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM EST     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:02 AM EST     4.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:31 PM EST     4.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.60.4-0.5-0.9-0.50.62.13.44.34.74.53.72.61.40.3-0.4-0.601.22.43.444

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.