Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 23, 2017 2:06 AM EDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:20PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...
Overnight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers with tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 3 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 930 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An eastward moving strong cold front will approach from the west during Monday. The front will sweep across the area waters and offshore by late Monday night thru midday Tuesday. Cool, canadian high pressure will follow and affect the area waters during the mid to late week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230525
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
125 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will retreat well offshore from the northeast
states tonight and mon. At the same time, a cold front
will approach from the west during mon, sweeping across the
forecast area Mon night thru early tue. The front will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms to the area, mainly from midday
Monday through Tuesday morning with a few storms briefly
reaching strong to possibly severe status. Cooler air will
spread across the region late Tue through the mid to late week
period as modified canadian high pressure ridges across the
region.

Near term through today
As of 900 pm Sunday... Latest 88d mosaics illustrate isolated
showers encroaching the southern portions of the ilm cwa, ie.

Southern williamsburg and georgetown counties. Local sfc obs in
this area shows no pcpn having occurred where the 88d detected
possible rw-. Will indicate an isolated pop mainly later tonight
as SE low level flow becomes more southerly, whereby the pcpn
over the atlantic will have a better angle to move onshore and
across portions of the fa. Some adjustments to cloudiness via
latest Sat imagery trends applied overnight into Monday. Kept
skies more optimistic, less clouds, over the NE portions of the
ilm cwa, otherwise, expect an overall increase in opaque
cloudiness. Have initialized sfc winds lower across the fa based
on latest obs trends. Still expect a gradual increase in wind
speeds and a slight veering of the directions due to a
tightening of the sfc pg and due to the retreating sfc high
backing further offshore from new england combined with the
approach of a strong sfc cold front. Some tweaking to overnight
mins to the hier side as a deeper onshore flow has pushed inland
those hier temps and dewpoints.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... Satellite imagery shows moisture steadily
increasing as low-level flow turns from the east to a southeast
trajectory. Mid-levels will remain dry initially thus
inhibiting any significant rain chances through tonight. The
best chances will remain across the extreme southern areas where
low-level theta-e advection is a little more focused through
tonight. Better chances all areas during Monday surges back
above 1.5 inches. In the end the GFS may be a touch too fast
with the arrival of the next system. In the end expect marginal
instability to support mention of thunderstorms later in the
day. Temperatures tonight will be well above normal with onshore
flow and increasing cloud cover. Highs on Monday will be above
normal as well but impeded by cloud cover.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
As of 230 pm Sunday... The focus remains on the potent storm
system projected to move across the area late Monday into
Tuesday. There are still some minor differences in timing that
likely won't be resolved until show time but the overall
forecast has changed little. We are still advertising likely
pops from east to west from 00 through 12 utc Tuesday. Severe
parameters remain in place for a high shear low CAPE event. Spc
continues to highlight a large area in a marginal risk due to
the timing and instability questions. Some lighter showers may
linger into the day Tuesday especially eastern areas as the
front slows down as it becomes somewhat aligned with the mid
level flow. A stronger shortwave gives the boundary a boost
Tuesday afternoon. Regarding temperatures, cold air advection in
the wake of the front doesn't arrive in force until late
Tuesday, which should be another warm one relatively speaking.

Lows Wednesday dip into the upper 40s west to near 50 east.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 230 pm Sunday... Initial portion of the long term looks to
be dry as high pressure transits east across the eastern
carolinas in the wake of a cold fropa. Showers moving in
advance of the next cold front may impact the area as early as
Saturday, but model solutions are still quite divergent as far
as timing goes, with the ECMWF holding off on FROPA until after
the weekend and the GFS being earlier. So, will limit pops to
slight low chance for this weekend until the picture becomes
clearer. It is possible that the weekend may also end up dry.

Temperatures will start off below normal for late october for
the first couple of days of the long term, warming to more
climatologically-correct levels by Friday.

Aviation 05z Monday through Friday
As of 05z... MVFR ceilings will overspread the area from south to
north through daybreak, along with isolated light showers. Very
localized ifr lifr may impact kilm over the next few hours.

Ceilings will lower and southerly winds will become gusty through
the day Monday ahead of a cold front, which is expected to be on
the doorstep of kflo klbt by 06z tue. Showers will become
numerous by mid to late afternoon inland, and along the coast by
evening, and a few tstms will be possible. Stronger storms will
be capable of producing wind gusts to 30 knots, but confidence
in timing the strongest convection is low at this point.

Extended outlook... Intermittent ifr conditions are possible
through Tuesday morning. BecomingVFR by midday Tuesday.VFR
Wednesday through Friday.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 900 pm Sunday... After this evening, marine conditions will
deteriorate overnight from increasing and veering winds, from
ese to SE overnight and SE to S by late Mon afternoon thru
early evening. In addition, an increase to the isolated to
scattered low topped showers within the low level onshore flow.

The sfc pg will be tightening overnight thru Monday as the
center of sfc high pressure retreats further offshore from the
new england coast combined with the approach of the cold front
from the west. Wind speeds will reach SCA thresholds by mon
afternoon. Significant seas will be in a building trend tonight
thru mon, reaching their peak late Mon night into tue.

Initially, significant seas will be dominated by a 2 to 2.5 foot
ese ground swell at 8 to 9 second periods. Wind driven waves at
4 to 5 second periods will eventually become the dominant player
to the significant seas as measured by wave energy (m ^2 hz).

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 230 pm Sunday... High pressure off new england will
continue to ridge back across the southeast coast. The high will
begin losing its grip tonight but more-so Monday ahead of a
strong cold front. As a result, easterly flow this evening will
becoming southeast tonight into Monday morning before veering to
a southerly direction Monday afternoon. Speeds will gradually
increase as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold
front. Small craft advisory conditions appear marginal at this
time for Monday afternoon. Widely scattered showers are possible
across the southern waters through tonight and they will
increase in coverage during Monday along with a chance of a
tstm.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... Small craft conditions should be in place
at the beginning of the period with a southerly flow of 20-25
knots and seas eclipsing six feet. Winds will increase a few
knots by Tuesday morning as will seas as a strong low level jet
moves across. For a good bit of Tuesday a southwest flow will
prevail on the order of 15- 20 knots. Cold air advection will
begin Tuesday evening and continue into early Wednesday although
not overly impressive. This should lead to northwest winds of
15-20 knots. Seas later Tuesday through Wednesday will drop
below small craft criteria.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... High pressure transiting east across the
waters will lead to gradually improving boating conditions with
dry weather through the long term. Period starts out with nw
winds of 15 to 20 kts and 3 to 5 ft seas in the wake of the
previous days fropa, but expect conditions to be become mo
re
favorable as the high moves overhead, with winds of around 10
kts by Friday and seas of around 2 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 pm edt
Tuesday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Srp
near term... Dch srp
short term... Shk
long term... Rek
aviation... Crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 6 mi82 min SE 5.1 73°F 1024 hPa68°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi59 min ESE 14 G 18 75°F 74°F1023.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi38 min 74°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi49 min ESE 13 G 15 75°F 76°F1023.5 hPa
WLON7 11 mi49 min 68°F 73°F1023.1 hPa
41108 26 mi37 min 74°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi59 min SE 14 G 19 76°F 76°F1023.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 36 mi59 min SE 12 G 16 74°F 74°F1022.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi37 min ESE 18 G 21 77°F 77°F1022.5 hPa68°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi82 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F67°F83%1023.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi74 minNE 68.00 miFair63°F62°F97%1023.6 hPa

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmN3NE3NE6E5E6E7SE6E6NE6E6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5E3E3E4E4E4E3E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNW4NW5SW5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orton Point, North Carolina
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Orton Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:18 PM EDT     4.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:44 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.8321.30.70.40.71.62.83.84.34.64.53.92.92.11.40.80.61.12.13.13.8

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:26 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:03 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:31 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.73.22.41.60.90.50.61.22.33.23.94.34.33.93.22.41.60.90.711.82.73.43.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.