Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday April 29, 2017 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:16AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 953 Pm Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft... Building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming sw 25 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft... Subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt...becoming se. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming S 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day...then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 953 Pm Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. A cold front will bring the likelihood for small craft advisory conditions Monday into Tuesday. High pressure and calmer marine conditions will follow late Tuesday into Wednesday. Approaching low pressure and its associated cold front will bring higher winds and seas and the possibility for small craft advisory conditions beginning Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 300159
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
959 pm edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through
early Monday with warm and humid conditions continuing. A cold
front will bring a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms late
Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the
mid-week period. A low pressure system will impact the region
Thursday into Friday amd may bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms and heavy rain.

Near term /through Sunday/
As of 1000 pm Saturday... Short-term guidance is converging on
the idea of fewer low clouds developing overnight. This may be
due to dewpoints, while still running exceptionally high for
this time of year, are just not high enough relative to the
warmth of the airmass to ensure a good saturated layer develops.

Latest hrrr and gfs-lamp guidance still shows 1000-2000 foot
stratus inland, but only for a few hours late tonight. I have
trimmed back this potential in the latest sky cover forecast and
tweaked a few temperatures with somewhat more clear skies
anticipated. Discussion from 730 pm follows...

very few changes were needed to the previous forecast. An
exceptionally humid and warm airmass for this early in the
season will continue to spread onshore tonight. Temperatures
should run a solid 15 degrees above normal with low temps around
70 degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the 60s and lower 70s.

Much like we saw last night, low stratocumulus clouds should
develop and persist through daybreak Sunday. We're already
seeing some cloudiness develop now in the CAPE fear area,
probably an early sign of what will come. Between 10 pm and 1 am
expect skies to become cloudy to mostly cloudy area-wide except
perhaps right on the beaches as these clouds will be the result
of humid air lifted up over the shallow nocturnal inversion
near the coast.

Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/
As of 315 pm Saturday... Strong mid level ridging which has been
responsible for the summer like conditions of the past few days
will give way to a dampening cyclone moving from the central
u.S. To the great lakes region through the period. At the
surface, bermuda high pressure will be displaced by a cold front
moving across the area late Monday into early Tuesday. The
timing of the front is becoming more consistent within the
guidance suite and there should be a broken to almost solid line
of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east across the
area from about 0 to 6z Tuesday. Severe potential doesn't look
overly impressive with 850mb winds only 45-50 knots with the
higher values to the north. Still, the timing could make things
a bit interesting over the western zones early in the evening.

Warm temperatures continue with highs in the 80s Monday
following another night with lows in the 60s Monday morning.

Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 315 pm Saturday... Broad high pressure behind Monday night's
cold front will expand across the southeast Tuesday creating dry and
seasonable weather with highs and lows right around climo.

This high will remain in place Wednesday with slightly warmer
temperatures but continued dry weather before it shifts offshore
Thursday. This occurs in response to a deep mid-level trough digging
into the middle of the country and then evolving across the eastern
conus into the weekend.

There exist two distinct camps in the guidance: the GFS has this low
cutting off and dropping southeast through the end of the period.

The cmc/ecm have a similar pattern initially to the gfs, but the
upper low drifts north before cutting off overhead the northeast.

The biggest difference between the guidance appears to be the
evolution of the ridge across the middle of the country. The cmc/ecm
keep the ridge axis aligned n/s, while the GFS produces a more
tilted ne/sw ridge which suppresses the upper low. The agreement
between the ecm/cmc tends to favor that solution a bit more, despite
the fact that the GFS has been consistent and we had a similar setup
just last week so there is precedent. The evolution of this upper
pattern is critical because, while all scenarios support showers and
thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday, the cmc/ecm would dry things
out for the weekend, while the GFS would maintain unsettled and
possibly very wet weather for several days. Without a clear solution
at this time range, will hedge with a wpc favored blend of guidance
but with a bit more weight on the drier ecm by the weekend. This
would also bring much cooler temperatures to the region fri/sat with
highs and lows falling below climo.

Aviation /00z Sunday through Thursday/
An unseasonably humid airmass will probably produce widespread
stratus overnight with cloud ceilings in the 1000-2000 foot agl
range. Although ifr ceilings cannot be ruled out, surface
dewpoints are 1-2 degrees lower than at this same time yesterday
both on land and at the offshore buoys where our air is blowing
in from. Confidence is moderate that we will see stratus
develop overnight, however the time given in the tafs for the
development for the clouds has only low confidence. Model
consensus of low cloud development has actually diverged in the
past couple hours, trending later in the night. Any stratus
lingering after sunrise Sunday should lift above 2000 feet agl
around 14z.

Extended outlook... Periods of ifr/MVFR conditions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.

Marine
Near term /through Sunday/...

as of 1000 pm Saturday... High pressure well offshore will
maintain a southerly wind tonight around 10 knots. Stronger
winds this afternoon along the coast were the result of the
seabreeze, which produced gusts over 20 knots at times. Seas
around 3 feet should continue overnight in a mix of 5-second
wind waves and 8 second SE swell.

Short term /Sunday night through Monday night/...

as of 315 pm Saturday... A southerly flow will be in place most of the
period with wind speeds increasing Monday as a cold front approaches
from the west. Initial speeds of 10-15 knots will increase to a
respectable 20-25 knots late Monday and persist into the evening
hours. The front will move across with a modest westerly flow
setting up by early Tuesday. Small craft conditions are likely
for Monday. Significant seas will ramp up as well increasing
from 2-4 feet early to 5-8 feet late.

Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...

as of 315 pm Saturday... Broad high pressure builds across the waters
behind a cold front Tuesday. Residual gusty w/nw winds of 15 kts and
4-6 ft seas will fall quickly during Tuesday as winds back to the sw
at 10-15 kts late Tuesday before a secondary surge flips winds
around to the NW by Wednesday at less than 10 kts. As the high
shifts offshore into Thursday, southerly winds will ramp up quickly
becoming 15-25 kts, driving seas back to 4-7 ft after being just 2-3
ft much of Wednesday. An SCA will likely be needed beginning late in
the extended.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt Sunday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Tra
short term... Shk
long term... Jdw
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi95 min WSW 2.9 73°F 1023 hPa73°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi72 min S 7.8 G 14 73°F 72°F1022.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi51 min 71°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi50 min S 11 G 11 72°F 72°F1022.3 hPa
WLON7 10 mi50 min 73°F 72°F1023 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi72 min SSW 9.7 G 12 74°F 74°F1022.8 hPa
41108 29 mi33 min 74°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi72 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 73°F1022.7 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi110 min 2 ft
41064 47 mi72 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 73°F 1023.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi40 min SSW 9.7 G 12 76°F 74°F1023.3 hPa72°F
41159 47 mi37 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi27 minS 510.00 miFair73°F70°F90%1023.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi20 minS 410.00 miFair74°F71°F93%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S7S8S7S10SW6SW6S5S7S11SW14SW11
G19
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1 day agoS12S11S8S8S11
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2 days agoS10SW8SW7SW5S3S3CalmS4S5SW11SW15W9SW9S15
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SW12S10S8S6S5S8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:12 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:57 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.43.72.81.91.10.2-0.20.41.733.84.13.93.32.51.60.90.2-0.20.41.83.34.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:35 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:39 AM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:07 PM EDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.83.31.70.3-0.5-0.6-01.12.43.54.24.33.82.71.30.1-0.5-0.50.11.32.84.35.45.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.