Wednesday, December13, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:04PM Wednesday December 13, 2017 6:00 AM EST (11:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:45AMMoonset 2:28PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 327 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
AMZ200 327 Am Est Wed Dec 13 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The combination of a tightened gradient and cold air advection associated with arctic high pressure, will keep winds quite active across the area today. The center of the high will slide south of the area Thu resulting in winds remaining active across the area waters. The next strong cold frontal passage will occur during Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 130805
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
305 am est Wed dec 13 2017

Synopsis
Arctic air will pour into the eastern carolinas this morning. The
cold won't last long as temperatures will return to normal Thursday
and Friday. Another cold front will bring chilly temperatures Saturday,
before seasonable weather returns on Sunday. Low pressure approaching
from the gulf coast may bring rain to the area early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Wednesday... Deep cold and dry air mass settling
into the carolinas this morning. Northwest winds picked up this
evening with gusts up to 30 kts at ilm, but have begun to settle
down a bit with most places 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts
mainly along the coast. Temps have fallen into the mid 30s and
should continue to drop just below freezing most places right
around daybreak in continued caa. GFS showing 850 temps
bottoming out right around daybreak today at -8c. The stiff nw
winds this morning will make it feel 5 to 10 degrees colder. The
wind chill temps will not reach above freezing until early this
afternoon and even then, the temps will only reach into the 40s
as winds lighten up, under full sunshine. Overall a cold and
very dry day ahead.

Gusty NW winds will lighten up and back to the SW by late
today. This will allow for a slight return in moisture, but only
slight as dewpoint temps rise from the single digits and teens
this afternoon to mid to the upper 20s overnight. The actual
temps will drop close to freezing tonight in most places. The
next shortwave will ride across the carolinas tonight. This will
produce some passing mid level clouds after midnight and will
kick the winds up once again as winds above the surface, in the
low levels of the atmosphere, reach up to 45 to 50 kts.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 300 am Wednesday... A strong shortwave will be exiting
the area Thu morning. A strong wind field is expected to develop
in association with this feature, with a jet maxima of 50-60 kt
down to around 2 kft. This low-level jet will be lifting out
thu morning, keeping a deep and dry westerly flow in place.

Sunshine should be plentiful and we should see a good temp
recovery with highs in the mid and upper 50s, so a good 10 or
more degrees warmer than on wed.

A cold front will reach the area late Thu night and Fri morning
and should stall for a time near or just offshore. Weak waves
of low pressure are expected to consolidate near the outer banks
with low pressure strengthening as it moves to the NE fri
night. This will allow for increasing clouds and it should
become mostly cloudy overnight Thu into Fri and then clearing
fri night. A strong and deep westerly flow dominates the column
during this portion of the forecast and significant shortwave
energy is not able to directly influence the eastern carolinas
until Fri night. Although the column does undergo some modest
moistening as we move through Thu night and into fri, dry air in
the mid and lower levels of the column will be tough to erode
in this type of flow. It looks like the showers that do develop
will be mainly offshore. We will continue to monitor, but our
latest forecast will be dry.

Lows Thu night will be in the mid 30s to around 40, coolest well
inland. Although the current set of grids do not explicitly
indicate a non-diurnal temp curve due to timing differences by
the models, it certainly is plausible to believe that lows may
occur early in the night and then stabilize if not rise with the
arrival of thick cloud cover. Highs on Fri will be similar to
thu. The influx of colder and drier air Fri night should help
to knock minimums to freezing, a little lower inland and perhaps
a degree or two above at the coast.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Model consensus is still not great in the
long term. It's a common problem in the winter: shortwave
energy splits as it exits the rockies with part coming eastward
and part dropping southwestward into baja mexico. Each model is
slightly different with the specifics how this energy cuts off
over mexico late this week, and then how it rejoins the
westerlies early next week.

Saturday should see chilly temperatures with mainly clear skies
in the canadian airmass in place. Surface high pressure will
move off the coast Saturday night, with a moderating return flow
setting up Sunday.

The difference in model handling of the baja mexico shortwave
energy really becomes apparent Sunday through Tuesday. The ecmwf
is easily the fastest model to kick the low back into the
westerlies, and shows rain breaking out during the day Sunday in
association with a developing surface wave of low pressure
along the gulf coast. Other models are at least 12 hours slower.

There are some GFS ensemble members that show an early start to
precip Sunday, but I don't show rain developing until Sunday
evening to maintain consistency with surrounding NWS offices and
the bulk of our deterministic model guidance. Even the slower
12z GFS and canadian runs still show rain becoming a good bet
Sunday night into Monday, and pops have been increased to 40-50
percent for this period. Temperatures should remain well above
freezing during this event with no p-type concerns.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... The only weather to contend with this period will
be gusty NW winds. As cold air rushes in through early today
winds will run up to 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts at
times. The winds will back to the SW this afternoon and will
increase again into tonight. Otherwise expect very dry period
with potential for a few passing mid level clouds tonight.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... A strong rush of cold and dry air over
the waters will produce gusty NW winds this morning, 15 to 25
kt with higher gusts. This off shore flow is keeping seas the
highest in the outer waters but overall, seas were up to 5 to 7
ft. These small craft advisory conditions will improve briefly
through this aftn as winds lighten and back to the sw, but
another disturbance will move across the waters after midnight
tonight producing another rise in both winds and seas.

Therefore, the small craft advisory will remain in effect
although there will be a lull this afternoon as winds back to
the SW and diminish to 10 to 15 kt allowing seas to drop to 2 to
3 ft. The increase tonight should come near midnight with winds
up to 15 to 25 kt and seas up to 5 to 7 ft.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 300 am Wednesday... A strong shortwave will be exiting the
area Thu morning. A strong wind field is expected to develop in
association with this feature, with a jet maxima of 50-60 kt
down to around 2 kft. This low-level jet will be lifting out thu
morning. Another cold front will reach the waters Fri morning
with one or more waves of low pressure migrating along the
front. Low pressure is expected to consolidate near the outer
banks of north carolina during Fri and then strengthen as it
moves NE Fri night.

The strongest winds this period will occur Thu morning, up to 20
to 25 kt. A small craft advisory has already been issued through
noon thu. The direction will be w. Seas will still be in the 4
to 7 ft range Thu morning. W winds will decrease to 10 to 15 kt
during Thu afternoon as seas subside to 3 to 4 ft. NW winds thu
night will decrease to 10 kt or less and may become variable in
direction due to the proximity of a front and weak low pressure
late. Seas will subside to 2 to 3 ft. Winds will increase during
fri and may be near small craft advisory levels Fri afternoon
and eve. The direction will be veering from W to NW during this
time. Seas will build, reaching 4 to 5 ft with at least some 6
ft seas possible across the outermost northern waters.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Breezy west winds will continue through
Saturday morning before diminishing as high pressure moves in
from the west. The next low pressure system is now expected to
move eastward and toward the carolinas a little faster than we
thought yesterday, perhaps reaching the area Sunday night with
rain and strengthening southerly winds.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon est Thursday for amz250-252-
254-256.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Rjd
long term... Tra
aviation... Rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi75 min SW 1 31°F 1012 hPa15°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi112 min NNW 16 G 23 37°F 57°F1011.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi31 min 57°F2 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi42 min NW 7 G 9.9 32°F 57°F1013.7 hPa
WLON7 10 mi42 min 30°F 52°F1013.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi112 min NW 23 G 35 40°F 65°F1011.9 hPa
41108 29 mi30 min 58°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi112 min NNW 12 G 16 37°F 1012.7 hPa
41064 47 mi112 min N 18 G 25 39°F 63°F1011.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi30 min NNW 21 G 25 41°F 62°F1013.3 hPa27°F
41159 47 mi30 min 63°F6 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi67 minNW 710.00 miFair31°F15°F52%1013.4 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi75 minNNW 810.00 miFair32°F15°F50%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8SW10SW7SW11SW17
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W13W15W13NW11W10W7W6W7NW18
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NW12NW4NW7NW9NW7NW4
1 day agoW6W4W6W4CalmCalm3SE45E5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S6SW8SW8SW9
2 days agoNW8W7W9NW10
G20
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NW10NW9W9W5SW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW5SW5SW7SW5SW5SW8SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:46 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:28 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     3.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.81.92.83.643.73.12.31.60.90.1-0.10.51.52.53.23.73.632.21.60.90.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:02 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:13 AM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:28 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:13 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.63.64.24.54.23.52.51.50.70.40.51.11.92.83.43.83.632.11.10.40.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.