Wednesday, February21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday February 21, 2018 7:59 PM EST (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 318 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft every 7 seconds. Areas of fog.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
AMZ200 318 Pm Est Wed Feb 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored offshore, sustaining light to moderate S and sw winds through the period. Each afternoon will feature gustier winds near-shore, due to the sea breeze. Patchy dense sea fog is possible through Friday morning. A weak cold front will cross the coast late Sunday or early Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 212330
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
630 pm est Wed feb 21 2018

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure will remain anchored offshore through
Sunday. Springlike weather with unseasonably warm temperatures
will continue until a cold front arrives Monday morning. This
front should bring a shot of rain to the area, followed by
temperatures returning to near normal for the middle of next
week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... 80 degrees reached at ilm, eclipsing a
maximum temperature record today of 78 set in 2014. Cool sse
winds off the ocean at the 'grand strand' may thwart a record
high at cre of 76 set 65 years ago in 1953. Flo though, within
tenths of a degree in tying a record high of 81 in 1997.

Anomalously strong upper ridge north of the bahamas, impinging
the us SE coast, will circulate air whose temperatures are 18-22
degrees f above normal tonight and Thursday, reflecting an
early may climatology.

Have indicated isolated, brief, low-topped showers along the
i-95 lane, late this afternoon and early evening tracking to
nne. Enough low-level instability and convergence is present,
but moisture aloft terribly lacking. Nocturnal showers dotting
the ocean, may take a swipe at the NE sc coast and CAPE fear
region overnight into early Thursday, but this could hardly be
described accurately as a 'rain-event', isolated at best.

Fog appears poised to debut again tonight, higher confidence
over land than water, since gradually, we are seeing ssts rise
inshore. Probability of a dense fog advisory, is higher than
'no' dense fog advisory overnight. Have included sea fog over
the waters, with coastal zones fog mist impacts tonight and
Thursday morning, persistence in the forecast playing a large
role, as the pattern continues similarly.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... The main feature through the short
term period will continue to be the strong and persistent mid
level ridge off the southeast coast. The ridge does get pushed a
little further south by the end of the period but will still
yield primary influence across our cwa. At the surface high
pressure remains in control as well as a weak cold front
emanating from the activity out to the west currently will push
only to the nc va border late Friday. As for temperatures, the
mav continues to advertise much warmer numbers as opposed to the
met and leaned more in favor of the warmer readings.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... The record-breaking upper level ridge
should retrograde back into the gulf of mexico and across
florida by Saturday. An upper disturbance across the plains
states should damp out as it moves east into the ridge Sunday
and Monday, but should still knock heights down enough to allow
deep moisture pulled off the western gulf of mexico to reach
the area Sunday night through Monday.

Bermuda high pressure at the surface will remain off the
carolina coast through Sunday while continuing to advect an
unseasonably warm and humid airmass into the area. A few record
high temperatures will be possible again Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday's record high of 79 in florence looks particularly
breakable.

The strong subsidence inversion associated with the upper ridge
should rise to around 9000 feet agl on Saturday, high enough to
allow some pretty substantial cumulus to develop beneath the
cap aloft. I've put a slight chance of showers in the forecast
inland. By Sunday, increasing moisture ahead the front and the
disappearance of the subsidence inversion should spread these
showers chances down to the coast as well. The front itself
should cross the area Monday morning, finally pushing the
tropical airmass out of the area. Long-range models show rain
chances peaking behind the front Monday morning as a ~12 hour
period of isentropic lift overrunning the frontal surface
develops aloft. Once the front pushes down into georgia the
drier, cooler air from the north should become deep enough to
dry our weather back out, with more seasonable temperatures
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

It's interesting to note that the tremendous negative temperature
departures we rang up in early january (15-25 degrees below
normal for seven consecutive days) will almost be cancelled out
by the exceptional warmth we're experiencing now (february
20-25). Since december's temperatures averaged near normal, it's
likely the meteorological winter of 2017-2018 will go down in
the record books as "near normal" for average temperature...

despite the roller coaster ride we've been on seeming anything
but normal!

Aviation 00z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Southerly flow around bermuda high pressure will
continue to prime the low-levels with moisture, and conditions
overnight will once again favor widespread dense fog. Confidence
is fairly high in ifr conditions developing after midnight,
with tempo lifr before the fog lifts by late morning.

Extended outlook... Morning ifr br possible through Friday am.

Showers and MVFR conditions possible Sunday through Monday,
drying Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Primary hazard remains potential for
fog overnight, as diurnal cooling boosts rh over the sea, and
mild moist flow continues to spread from the south. A 'marine
dense fog advisory' may be needed tonight and Thursday morning.

'fresh swell' or 'mature wind-seas', you could select either,
in describing the dominant wave energy fanning ashore currently,
and tonight, SE waves 3-4 feet every 7 seconds offshore, 2-3 ft
inshore. Steady light southerly flow overnight 12 kt or less,
as the sea breeze weakens in early evening. Thursday changes are
small, but look for wave periods to stretch out to 9 seconds,
resulting less steepness, but count on 3 ft seas at a minimum,
and up to 4 ft offshore. No tstms this period, but isolated
showers should be expected.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Little change in the offing for the
coastal waters forecast. Surface high pressure off the southeast
coast will continue to drive winds from the south around ten
knots or so. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet with a few four
footers possible on occasion across the outer waters.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Unseasonably well-defined bermuda high
pressure will maintain a south-southwesterly wind across the
waters Saturday and Sunday. The approach of a cold front from
the west Sunday should accelerate winds to around 20 knots
during the day. There's at least a chance conditions could
reach small craft advisory criteria. The front should finally
cross the area early Monday morning with a shift to northerly
winds. Weak high pressure to our north is expected to push the
front down into florida Monday night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Tra
aviation... Crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi52 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 59°F1031 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi31 min 59°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi42 min S 6 G 7 62°F 58°F1031.4 hPa
WLON7 10 mi42 min 66°F 60°F1030.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi52 min S 7.8 G 12 68°F 69°F1031.5 hPa
41108 29 mi30 min 60°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi52 min S 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 59°F1031 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi78 min 2 ft
41064 47 mi52 min S 5.8 G 9.7 71°F 69°F1031.7 hPa
41159 47 mi30 min 69°F4 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi30 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 70°F1031.3 hPa69°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi67 minS 610.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1030.9 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi85 minN 010.00 miFair67°F66°F97%1031.2 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmS4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW9S8S12S10SW7S10S10S9S8S6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmS4S5S5CalmSE3S3CalmCalmSE4S4S6S6S10S8S12SE7S9
G16
S11S9S6S6SE4
2 days agoE10E10E11
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NE8NE8NE6E8E7E8E7E4NW5N6NE3S4S9SE8
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S9S6SW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM EST     3.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:34 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.93.42.61.710.50.20.31.12.33.43.93.93.52.81.910.40.100.723.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:00 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:10 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:46 PM EST     4.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.12.110.2-0.10.20.81.72.63.43.73.52.9210.1-0.2-0.10.51.42.53.54.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.