Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Myrtle Grove, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:48PM Friday April 20, 2018 2:29 PM EDT (18:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1200 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 3 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E 10 kt. Seas 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft late.
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain through the day, then rain likely through the night.
Tue..E winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. A chance of rain.
AMZ200 1200 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build into the eastern u.s. Through Sunday. Low pressure will move slowly across the area Monday through Tuesday next week, bringing rain back to the carolinas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Myrtle Grove, NC
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location: 34.11, -77.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201520
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1120 am edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build into the carolinas through the
weekend, bringing dry weather with chilly temperatures. Slow-
moving low pressure will cross the southeastern u.S. Monday
through Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall with continued
below-normal temperatures.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 am Friday... Deep dry northwest flow aloft veers
northeasterly at the surface as 1035 mb high pressure over
minnesota slowly builds eastward. The 12z mhx weather balloon
measured 0 degrees c at 850 mb this morning. Interestingly,
matching today's date up on the SPC sounding climatology page
shows that while this is unusually chilly this late in the year
it's not really record territory.

Surface winds should continue to veer through the day, and by
this afternoon a weak seabreeze should turn winds purely
onshore, perhaps even along the brunswick county beaches. For
this reason predicted highs range from only 59-63 degrees on the
beaches to the upper 60s across the pee dee region. This is
10-12 degrees colder than normal. Through yesterday april has
run 1-2 degrees colder than normal and today's temperatures
should extend those negative departures by another half degree
or so.

Good radiational cooling tonight will be partially offset by
warm advection. Lows should range from 38-44, except a few
degrees warmer on the beaches. It's possible there could even be
some patchy frost in some of the normally colder locations
across SE north carolina. I'll investigate this potential more
closely after the 12z model data arrives.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 330 am Friday... The forecast area will lie between 2
"bowling balls", ie. Between 2 upper closed lows at the start
of this period. The 1 affecting maine and southeast canada, will
progress further away from the u.S. During this period.

However, the other closed low will be able to progress, moving
slowly eastward across the gulf coast states this weekend,
and reaching the ilm doorsteps by Mon morning. At the sfc,
models in decent agreement with canadian high pressure ridging
across the area from the great lakes during this weekend, with
the high re-centering itself over the NE states at the end of
this period. This will result in cool NE to ene winds thruout
this period which will help keep temperatures at 5 to 10 degrees
below normal for both maxes and mins with the exception of
Sunday night Monday morning lows which will be near normal due
to the modification of the air mass as well as onshore winds
that may have a SE component by the end of this period. Clouds
sat through Sun will be in the form of thin cirrus Sat and
becoming more opaque during the day on sun. For late Sun through
sun night, mid-level altostratus will become dominant with low
level stratus across the far S to SW portions as the upper low
approaches along with the threat for stratiform rains.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Very large high, more typical of the
cool season, to be moving off the coast on Sunday. Meanwhile a
cutoff upper low (also normally a cool season feature) to be
crossing the gulf states, leading to cyclogenesis. As often the
case with a cutoff, the timing is often uncertain and too fast
in guidance. Much of the cloudiness and rain expected to
overspread the area Sunday night into Monday may now be about
12 hours slower. Another change from this time yesterday is
that guidance is now suppressing the highest rainfall amounts to
our south. Given the strength of the high to our north this
seems plausible. Even so, the system will be slow moving and
keep rain in the forecast through at least Wednesday.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z...VFR conditions are expected through the period.

High pressure centered to our northwest will build in through this
evening. Northerly winds this afternoon. Light winds tonight with
good radiational cooling conditions. Saturday, light mainly easterly
flow and continued dry with good subsidence.

Extended outlook...VFR. Periods of MVFR ra Monday Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 930 am Friday... The small craft advisory has been
extended through noon due to continued breezy northeast winds
still blowing 20-25 kt across the coastal waters. Winds at 8 am
were still gusting to 33 knots out at the frying pan shoals
buoy. Wind speeds should diminish through the day, and will veer
more directly onshore during the mid to late afternoon hours as
a weak seabreeze develops.

Seas still 7.5 feet at frying pan are probably not being
experienced within 20 miles of shore. The cormp buoys near cape
fear are reporting 4 to 4.5 feet, and these seas should diminish
through the afternoon as wind speeds diminish.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 330 am Friday... The area waters will remain within a
semi-tightened sfc pg Sat that will likely further tighten sun
into Sun night. This due to the closed low approaching from
the gulf coast states. Have ramped up ene to E winds late sun
through Sun night and have them approaching SCA thresholds by
mon daybreak along with building seas likely breaching the 6
foot plateau Mon morning. Significant seas will primarily be a
function of wind driven waves that could be considered a pseudo
ground swell as progged periods increase to 5 to 7 seconds.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Onshore flow on Sunday the result of a
very large area of high pressure moving eastward but remaining
centered well north of the area. At the same time low pressure
will be developing over the gulf states. This setup will
increasingly squeeze the gradient to where wind and seas both
reach advisory levels. Both entities will be very slow moving,
keeping advisory flags flying for the remainder of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until noon edt today for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Tra
short term... Dch
long term... Iii
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi141 min NE 9.7 G 14 54°F 60°F1027 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi29 min 60°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 7 mi41 min ESE 8.9 G 11 55°F 62°F1026.7 hPa
WLON7 10 mi41 min 66°F 65°F1026.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 26 mi81 min NE 9.7 G 18 54°F 66°F1027.3 hPa
41108 29 mi29 min 60°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi81 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 57°F 62°F1026.6 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi127 min 2 ft
41064 47 mi81 min NE 7.8 G 12 54°F 65°F1027.2 hPa
41159 47 mi29 min 66°F4 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 47 mi39 min NNE 16 G 19 55°F 65°F6 ft1026.7 hPa38°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N14
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S20
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G25
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G29
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G27
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G21
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W11
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SW14
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G14
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W8
G12
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S18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC13 mi36 minW 410.00 miFair63°F30°F29%1026.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC18 mi54 minENE 410.00 miFair60°F32°F36%1026.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW19
G31
W20
G28
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G26
N12
G21
N9
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N15
G21
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N9N10N9N10N10N5N7NE8N11N10
G16
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--W4
1 day agoSW10
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SW13S13SW15
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G26
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G30
W25
G34
2 days agoW9
G15
W16W17
G21
W14SW14SW10S8S8S8SW9SW10SW8SW6SW5SW7SW8SW8SW9W9W11SW10W6W8S12

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:17 AM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:02 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:08 PM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.74.64.23.52.61.81.10.50.10.51.72.93.63.93.73.32.41.60.90.40.10.51.73.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:40 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:41 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.34.53.31.90.7-0.1-0.20.31.12.13.13.73.83.42.61.50.5-0.1-0.10.41.42.63.94.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.