Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 2:07 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM

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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 305 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Through 7 pm - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then becoming N late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 ft at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and E 2 ft at 12 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers.Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers.Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 305 Pm Edt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - High pressure offshore in the atlantic waters over the next several days, will produce an extended period of generally southwesterly wind. Variable wind directions for start of the weekend before a cold front moves across by early Sunday.

FXUS62 KILM 181722 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday. Rain chances increase on Friday as a cold front moves across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining elevated rain chances.

UPDATE
No major updates to the forecast at this time. Updated 12Z aviation discussion below.

.UPDATE?...
No changes to the forecast this morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quiet and dry pattern as a ridge moves overhead then offshore late tonight. High pressure will center to our south while low pressure will move off the coast to our NE. Expecting plenty of sun with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the coast. The sea breeze should limit warming at the coast with highs in the low to mid 80s. Lowered dewpoints considerably during the afternoon due to mixing of the drier air aloft. Lighter winds tonight with the cold front from the offshore low pushing through from the north. Not expecting any precip with this feature due to the dry air in place, but cloud cover should increase late tonight. Went a tad lower with lows due to the calmer winds and clear skies, lows largely in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A cold front stalled south of the area Fri morning will gradually decay through Sat night, lingering in the area as it weakens. A stronger cold front moves in from the west Fri night into Sat with the combination of low level convergence and diurnal instability leading to isolated convection Fri afternoon and evening. Although the boundaries will linger in the region Sat and Sat night, coverage of diurnal convection ends up near climatology, 30-40%. Mid-level support is lacking and there is even a hint of weak mid-level subsidence with an inversion between 850-700mb and a layer of very dry air between 700-500mb. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees above climo Fri and Fri night and about 5 degrees above climo Sat and Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A southern stream shortwave and a stalled front will lead to a period of unsettled weather across the Southeast Sun and Mon. Weak surface wave developing along the front stalled just off the coast Sun morning will gradually develop into a weak coastal low as it lifts north-northeast along the boundary late Sun into Mon. On Mon a secondary shortwave dropping in from the northwest phases with the initial wave, this may end up producing a second round of scattered showers and thunderstorms later Mon into Mon night as the cold pool aloft and associated moisture move overhead. Low confidence in rain chances on Mon given location/timing uncertainties, but something to keep an eye on. Shortwave exits Mon night with flat flow at 5h setting up in its wake. Progressive flow moves surface high overhead Tue and offshore Wed with cold front approaching from the northwest.
Highs below climo Sun-Tue return near to slightly above climo Wed with the development of return flow. Lows will be near to above climo through the long term. Worth noting the diurnal temp range Mon and Mon night could very well be under 10 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR with clear skies and no fog. Winds will swing around at ILM as a backdoor cold front sinks south of the terminal just prior to daybreak. This boundary will both weaken and lift back to the north later in the day.

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.

MARINE
Through Tonight: Sub-SCA conditions. SW winds increase to 10-15 kts during the afternoon with a turn to out of the NE at the end of the period as a cold front moves through. Seas 2-3 ft with a SW wind wave and 9 second SE swell. A weak E swell at 12-14 seconds will creep in late in the period due to an offshore low to our north.

Friday through Monday: A series of fronts affecting the waters with northerly winds Fri morning becoming southerly as a weak front to the south dissipates and the sea breeze dominates the wind field.
Southerly winds 10-15 kt set up for Sat as gradient pinches ahead of another front. Second front pushes offshore Sat night, stalling east of the waters. Northerly flow sets up behind the front then increases Sun and Mon as low pressure first develops along the front then slowly moves northeast. Northeast flow approaching 20 kt will be possible at times Sun and Mon. Fri and Sat winds under 15 kt and changeable direction will keep seas 2-3 ft. Increasing northeast flow developing by Sun builds seas to 3-4 ft, increasing to 3-5 ft Mon. Seas will be a mix of southerly swell and southerly wind wave Fri and Sat before a northeast wind wave develops and becomes dominant early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Campbell Island
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Thu -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     3.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:23 PM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Campbell Island, North Carolina, Tide feet

Wilmington
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Thu -- 12:34 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     4.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:20 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 PM EDT     4.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wilmington, North Carolina, Tide feet

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