Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:09AMMoonset 8:35PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 310 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 310 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build in from the north overnight and linger through Thursday. A series of weak low pressure systems will move up the coast Thursday through Saturday. A dry cold front will move cross the region Saturday night followed by canadian high pressure for the start of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222007
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
307 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build into the area overnight. Low pressure
over the eastern gulf of mexico, will track slowly up from the
south Thursday through Friday, producing unsettled conditions,
until it departs to the northeast on Saturday. A dry cold front
will move through Saturday night followed by cold, dry canadian
high pressure through early next week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Dry cold front has pushed off the coast,
ushering in drier air and helping to clear out lingering clouds
low clouds. Only some patches of cirrus linger over the region
this afternoon. Mid-level trough axis remains west of the area
and the front lacks any cold advection. High pressure building
over the region in the wake of the front shifts east tonight
with northwest flow becoming north and the northeast. The
resulting northeast flow will be what leads to a drop in
temperatures for the remainder of the period. Aloft the 5h
trough axis remains west of the area as a series of shortwave
move around the base of the trough. The trough digs over the
central and eastern gulf of mexico tonight and Thu as the first
of several waves is ejected northeast, moving up the southeast
coast.

The first wave will move across northern fl early Thu afternoon
then head up the coast late in the day. Still some uncertainty
with respect to how close to the coast this feature will be. As
the shortwave emerges from the base of the 5h trough a surface
wave will develop along a front that will be stalled off the
southeast coast and across central fl. The surface wave and it's
mid-level partner will spread deep moisture and cloud cover
over the area but it currently appears that precipitation
associated with the feature will remain south and east of the
forecast area through the end of the period. Confidence in
precipitation chances late in the period is low. There will be
enough moisture and isentropic lift associated with the feature
moving northeast. A slight northward westward shift of the
surface and mid level features would be all that would be needed
to end up with measurable rain late thu. Temperatures tonight
will run near to slightly below climo, cooling off once the
northeast surge develops. On Thu highs will be kept below climo
by a combination of northeast winds and increasing thickening
cloud cover.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 3 pm Wednesday... In the upper levels a large scale trough
will shift into the region and and bring a chance for showers
along the coast of southeast north carolina and northeast south
carolina.

The 12 utc ecmwf, gfs, and canadian are in some agreement in
keeping the bulk of the precipitation off the coast. The 12
utc NAM closes off in the upper levels and brings heavy rain in
the entire area. While the canadian is a bit more robust with
the precipiation along the coastal counties compared to the
ecmwf and the gfs. The 12 utc GFS ensemble agrees with the
deterministic ECMWF and GFS so trend into this direction with a
20 to 25% chance of showers mainly east of a kingstree, sc to
surf city, nc line through the forecast period. QPF values are
expected to be less than 0.10 of an inch for this event.

Temperatures will continue to be below normal with lows ranging
from the lower to middle 40s at the coast to the mid 30s well
inland on Thursday night. On Friday night lows will be 4 to 5
degrees warmer. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 50s to near
60.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Primary weather caption for this time
frame remains 'seasonably cool, and dry' as a series of upper
troughs progressively traverse the coast, the strongest of which
late Saturday, brings cold air advection Sunday.

The coolest portion of this time period looks to be daybreak
Monday, when high pressure becomes centered over the inland
carolinas under clear skies at first light. The mildest portion
of this period will be Saturday afternoon, ahead of the
approaching, dry, cold front, and then again the breeziest part
of the forecast will be Sunday as high pressure builds in from
the west.

Late in the extended period for days 6 7, a return and moisture
flow slated, as a moderately strong upper trough digs into the
central ms valley, hence, a warm air advection trend appears on
tap for next Tue wed, with a slight chance of rain as a warm
front arrives from the south in the return flow.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... High confidence forVFR conditions through the
forecast period. Low ceilings have finally scattered and should
remain so through the end of TAF time. Moisture profiles are
not favorable for fog formation. Thursday, mostly sunny skies in
the morning with increasing high clouds in the afternoon.

Northeast winds are forecast.

Extended outlook...VFR conditions expected through most of thurs.

Low confidence for MVFR to ifr conditions near the coast late
Thursday through Saturday morning in low clouds and rain.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... Dry cold front has pushed off the coast,
ushering in drier air and helping to clear out lingering clouds low
clouds. Only some patches of cirrus linger over the region this
afternoon. Mid-level trough axis remains west of the area and the
front lacks any cold advection. High pressure building over the
region in the wake of the front shifts east tonight with northwest
flow becoming north and the northeast. The resulting northeast flow
will be what leads to a drop in temperatures for the remainder of
the period. Aloft the 5h trough axis remains west of the area as a
series of shortwave move around the base of the trough. The trough
digs over the central and eastern gulf of mexico tonight and Thu as
the first of several waves is ejected northeast, moving up the
southeast coast.

The first wave will move across northern fl early Thu afternoon then
head up the coast late in the day. Still some uncertainty with
respect to how close to the coast this feature will be. As the
shortwave emerges from the base of the 5h trough a surface wave will
develop along a front that will be stalled off the southeast coast
and across central fl. The surface wave and it's mid-level partner
will spread deep moisture and cloud cover over the area but it
currently appears that precipitation associated with the feature
will remain south and east of the forecast area through the end of
the period. Confidence in precipitation chances late in the period
is low. There will be enough moisture and isentropic lift associated
with the feature moving northeast. A slight northward westward shift
of the surface and mid level features would be all that would be
needed to end up with measurable rain late thu. Temperatures tonight
will run near to slightly below climo, cooling off once the
northeast surge develops. On Thu highs will be kept below climo by
a combination of northeast winds and increasing thickening cloud
cover.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... The synoptic setup over the coastal
waters will see high pressure over the carolinas and a frontal
boundary east of the coastal waters. On Friday the ECMWF and gfs
indicate a weak low pressure area will develop along the
frontal boundary and with propagate up this boundary east of the
coastal waters. The biggest impact will be in the waters south
of myrtle beach.

The winds will be from the northeast at the start of the period
and will back to the northwest as the low shift northeast of
the waters. Winds speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots with a
increase to 15 to 20 knot especially in the waters south of
murrells inlet on Friday into Friday night. The wave models are
showing significant sea heights around 2 to 4 feet Thursday
night before increasing to 3 to 5 feet on Friday into Friday
night.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 3 pm Wednesday... A changeable marine period as a cold
front approaches Saturday, crosses the coast late Saturday
night and early Sunday, followed by building high pressure into
the area through the day Sunday.

Departing low pressure offshore Saturday, will leave moderate
w-nw winds along the 0-20 nm marine zones through Saturday. The
breeziest day and highest seas will be Sunday as north winds up
to 20 kt prevail, with a few higher gusts. Wave guidance
showing 4-5 feet offshore sun, thus a cautionary headline may be
needed. As the high pressure center nears, N winds will veer to
ne and weaken on Monday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Thursday for amz250-252-254-256.

Near term... Iii
short term... Drh
long term... Mjc
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi106 min W 1.9 71°F 1013 hPa56°F
WLON7 6 mi43 min 75°F 60°F1013.3 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi43 min NNW 11 G 17 68°F 63°F1013.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi32 min 64°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi83 min N 7.8 G 14 66°F 64°F1013.4 hPa
41108 29 mi31 min 64°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi83 min N 9.7 G 16 66°F 68°F1013.3 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 36 mi83 min NNE 9.7 G 12 66°F 62°F1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi38 minNNW 910.00 miFair71°F48°F46%1013.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi46 minN 710.00 miFair69°F52°F56%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E4E4NE3E3E4CalmCalmSE4CalmE3NE5CalmNW7NW5W5W6NW7NW8NW12N4NW12
G16
N11N9
1 day agoN3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE3NE5NE5NE4E6E8E7E6
2 days agoNW13
G21
NW10NW7NW4NW3NW6NW6N6N3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7N7N8NW7N7N5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:27 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:10 AM EST     4.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:22 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.71.91.10.60.30.31.12.33.43.94.143.62.821.30.80.40.61.52.63.33.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:51 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:52 AM EST     4.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:04 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:41 PM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.42.61.60.90.40.30.71.83.244.34.44.23.52.61.710.60.51.12.33.33.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.