Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:59 AM EDT (14:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:38PMMoonset 9:07AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1011 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt, becoming S early this afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
AMZ200 1011 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift south across the area today, settling across north florida on Friday. The tail end of a weak cold front may affect the winds late Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231420
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1020 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move from the carolinas down to florida
by Friday, allowing temperatures to soar into the 90s. A weak
backdoor front could briefly make it into the area Saturday,
but should return north Saturday night. Unseasonably hot conditions
will continue next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 1000 am Thursday... Made minor adjustments to cloud cover
spreading into i-95 corridor. Otherwise forecast on track with
winds shifting around to the south with temps warming into the
lower to mid 80s closer to the coast and near 90 inland.

Previous discussion:a strong area of mid and upper level
high pressure will remain parked across the southeast states
today and Friday. The upper ridge should retrograde a bit as a
trough moves through new england later today, and this should
relocate the surface ridge southward from its current position
across north carolina down to north florida by Friday.

Substantial marine influence in our weather yesterday will wane
as low-level winds shift westerly by Friday, and with it should
come the blast of early- season heat we've been seeing in the
models for the past 10 days.

Forecast soundings show so much warm, dry air up within the
subsidence inversion aloft that it's doubtful we'll see more than
small cumulus at the top of the mixed layer today or tomorrow. With
prevailing southerly winds today highs should range from around 90
on the i-95 corridor down to the lower to middle 80s near the coast
where onshore winds should persist all day.

As the surface ridge drops southward tonight a modest westerly low-
level jet will develop and should hold lows near 70 for most spots.

850 mb temps on Friday should surge toward +19c, not record
territory but still among the warmest values measured on the chs or
mhx soundings this early in the year on the SPC sounding climatology
webpage. Westerly surface winds should delay seabreeze development
by several hours, allowing the coast to see their warmest
temperatures of the year so far. I've bumped up forecast highs to 90
at north myrtle beach, 92 at myrtle beach (airport), and to 97 at
wilmington. Nam MOS highs tomorrow are probably too cool along the
coast as the model itself isn't that different than the GFS with
winds or low-level thermal fields.

Current record highs for Friday may 24:
wilmington 97 in 2011
florence 97 in 1994
n. Myrtle beach 90 in1949
lumberton 98 in 2011

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Cold front dropping into part of the area
Friday night into Saturday. The relief from the heat from an
advection standpoint will be minimal, but its introduction of
onshore flow will bring some oceanic moderation to the very busy
beaches this memorial day weekend. Mid to upper 80s will be the
coastal highs while afternoon temperatures rise well into the 90s
the further inland you go. Both nights will bring lows in the lower
70s. The GFS flattening the mid level ridge allowing for isolated
convection Saturday appears erroneous especially given the deep
troughiness in the western us as well as off the northeast coast.

The very dry forecast soundings of the WRF are more in line with our
rain-free thinking.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... At the surface much of the period will look
like pure summertime. Bermuda high pressure in place along with a
piedmont trough. This appears to keep the higher dewpoints pooled up
quite close to the coast. Similarly coastal locales should have the
heat tempered by the cooler ssts and it appears that heat advisory
levels of apparent temperature will not be realized anywhere.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... An intermittent MVFR ceiling is possible this morning,
mainly at the inland terminals. Southerly flow today will rocket
temperatures into the 90s with no convection expected due to the
subsidence inversion.

Extended outlook... ContinuedVFR conditions are expected through
the weekend as high pressure dominates. There is a slight
chance of MVFR conditions each morning from low stratus and or
fog, and also from isolated afternoon thunderstorms.

Marine
As of 1000 am Thursday... A ridge of high pressure will sink
southward across the carolinas later today, shifting the
easterly winds we've experienced for the past 36 hours around to
an offshore wind for Friday. Light southeast winds this morning
should veer more southerly this afternoon, enhanced a bit by a
moderate-strength seabreeze. Winds should veer southwesterly
around 15 kt tonight as the ridge sinks south across georgia. By
Friday the ridge should extend east-west across northern
florida, providing a mainly westerly wind across the carolinas.

This offshore trajectory should actually delay seabreeze
formation by several hours from its typical 11 am-noon
development time on Friday.

All models are in good agreement with this scenario and this is a
high confidence forecast. Seas of 2-3 feet are expected, split
between local 4 second wind chop developing this afternoon and a 7-8
second southeast swell.

A cold front sagged into the area Friday night into Saturday
with be the only period not featuring typical warm season
southwesterly flow. During this timeframe winds will be veering
from NE to E and then SE with the boundary's gradual retreat
back to the north. A slight steepening of the diminutive wave
faces will likely be hardly noticeable to most mariners.

Southwesterly flow returns Sunday and Monday in the 10-15 kt
range while seas continue to average 2 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Tra rgz
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi47 min 78°F 79°F1025.9 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi47 min ESE 5.1 G 6 77°F 75°F1026.1 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi51 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 75°F1025.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi59 min 75°F2 ft
41108 29 mi59 min 76°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi51 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 77°F 76°F1026.1 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi51 min E 3.9 G 7.8 75°F 76°F1026 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi66 minW 510.00 miFair79°F63°F58%1025.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi79 minS 4 miPartly Cloudy78°F64°F63%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E13E9
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E8E11E8E9SE7E6E6E5SE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5
1 day agoW83N5SE4SE7SE7SE6SE95S5E7E8E10E9----E9NE8NE6NE5NE6NE8NE9E10
2 days agoW9W7S5S9S8S13S10S15S10S11S9S7S8SW5SW8SW5SW5S6SW7SW5SW4SW5W11W8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
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Thu -- 12:47 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.23.93.22.41.710.40.30.91.92.73.23.53.42.821.30.90.50.412.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:32 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:58 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.54.543.22.41.60.90.40.41.22.33.13.63.73.52.81.91.30.80.50.51.32.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.