Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:31PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:53 AM EDT (15:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 7:19PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1141 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft...then 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning...then a chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming s. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 5 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt...becoming n. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1141 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southerly flow around atlantic high pressure will continue through into today. A weak cold front will approach from the west late today and push across the area waters and offshore early Wed. High pressure will follow and build across the area from the north Wed night into Thu. Another cold front will move across the waters on Fri with drier high pressure to follow for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 281346
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
946 am edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
The risk for showers and an isolated strong thunderstorm will
occur this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will move
through late tonight. Relatively cooler and drier high pressure
will build in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected as warmer and more humid
air returns Friday ahead of a cold front which will move
offshore early Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong
to severe Friday and Friday night. The weekend should be dry as
high pressure takes hold. Then early next week, a southern
stream system will again bring the risk for showers and
thunderstorms.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 945 am Tuesday... Convection is occurring ahead of a short
wave this morning over bladen and columbus counties and this
will continue to shift off the coast. For the afternoon and
second short-wave trough will push across the area with the best
chances over southeast north carolina and darlington, dillon.

The morning soundings are showing surface base capes of 1200 to
1400 j/kg with wet-bulb zero ranging between 9000 ft in the
north and 11000 ft to the south. With partial clearing for the
afternoon this may help enhance a chance of thunderstorms to
develop again tonight.

Previous discussion...

southerly winds will veer slowly to the SW and become gusty
through the day before shifting to the W by tues evening as
trough moves through. Expect plenty of clouds through the day
but some breaks or brightening will allow temps to reach up
toward 80 most places. The increasing SW flow will fight against
inland movement of sea breeze and therefore the stable air
behind sea breeze will remain pinned closer to the coast.

Overall expect increasing westerly flow aloft and drier air to
put an end to convection across the area by late aftn with some
lingering clouds into the evening. Pcp water values up around
1.4 inches in the aftn will drop under an inch by midnight as
winds from the sfc up through the mid levels become westerly and
eventually northwest overnight. Clearing should take place
overnight although some residual low level moisture will remain
into the morning. Temperatures will drop off slowly as the cold
front will not actually make it through until the early morning
hours on wed. Low temps should be in the mid 50s most places.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/
As of 300 am Tuesday... Cold front will be offshore Wed morning.

Strong high pressure centered across eastern canada will begin
to ridge south across the carolinas later Wed and Wed night. A
wedge will develop Wed night and persist into Thu before the
ridge begins to weaken and shift offshore Thu night. Dry weather
wed into Thu as partial sunshine returns. A potent southern
stream system will approach from the W Thu night. Clouds will be
on the increase later Thu and especially Thu night. The system
has slowed down some, but will continue to advertise a slight
chance/small chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly
overnight Thu with the lowest risk across the CAPE fear area and
the highest across the i-95 corridor and westward.

The cool air will be slow to arrive and so highs on Wed should
still be well above normal, upper 70s to lower 80s with marine
influences keeping the coastal communities in the lower to mid
70s. Highs Thu will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s with
perhaps some mid 70s across portions of the pee dee. Lows will
be mainly in the 50s.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
As of 300 am Tuesday... Next in series of potent southern stream
systems will impact the eastern carolinas Fri and Fri night with
a categorical risk for showers and thunderstorms developing.

The combination of significant upper level support and strong
and deep moisture return and lift provides at least the
opportunity for a more widespread and significant rainfall
event. There will be some risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms during this time. 0-6 km effective bulk shear
parameters are not particularly impressive. However, instability
does grow with mixed layer CAPE values on the order of 500 to
1000 j/kg as the warm front should move to our n. Mid-level
lapse rates are forecast to be rather modest. The potential is
there for an active day/night leading into the weekend, although
magnitude is certainly still a question mark.

In the wake of this system, dry weather and near to above
normal temps are expected for the weekend as mid-level ridging
builds across the area and surface high pressure builds from the
nw and n. Attention then will turn westward as next southern
stream system along the gulf coast Sun night lifts to the NE and
drags a warm front to the n. This will again bring deep
moisture into the carolinas, and with that, showers and
thunderstorms early next week. Given timing differences between
long range models and a general slower trend as compared to 24
hours ago, will cap pops in the chance category until we can
gain better resolution as to when the highest risk for showers
and thunderstorms will occur.

Aviation /13z Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 12z... The greatest coverage of showers and some thunderstorms
will move across portions of the i-95 corridor through 14-15z.

The highest probability for a thunderstorm at any of the
terminals this morning will be klbt. The convection will be in
the vicinity of kflo, but the brunt should pass just to the n
this morning. Conditions will beVFR throughout, except there is
the potential for visibility to briefly drop to MVFR in rain at
any terminal. The most organized convection will be ahead of a
shortwave this morning through midday with any activity this
afternoon, isolated.

Winds will veer slowly through the day, but may see a slight
backing along coastal terminals in the afternoon due to the sea
breeze. Sustained wind speeds will be up to 10 to 15 kt today.

A cold front will push through late tonight, shifting winds to
the NW and N toward morning. Did not include any restrictions
in fog overnight, but later forecasts may as the dry air will be
slow to advect across the area.

Extended outlook... Flight restrictions are likely in showers
and thunderstorms fri/fri night and thunderstorms may contain
strong wind gusts.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 1000 am Tuesday... Sw
sw winds 10 to 15 kt continue at frying pan shoals and 10 knots
at the piers. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient
tightens as the cold front approaches from overnight. Seas will
increase to 3 to 5 feet north of little river and 2 to 4 feet to
the south.

A longer period SE swell will continue to reach our local waters
from a rather deep low pressure system well offshore from the se
u.S. Coast forecast to move northeast, further away from the u.S.

Mainland. Boaters navigating to and from area inlets on Tue could
encounter rough wave conditions especially during an outgoing tide
combined with the incoming 10+ second period swell.

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Cold front should be offshore at the
start of the period. Strong high pressure across eastern canada
will build south and eventually wedge across the carolinas wed
night and thu. The strong ridge should then move offshore thu
night. N winds Wed morning will veer to ne. NE winds Wed night
and Thu will then veer to SE Thu night. Sustained wind speeds
will increase to 15 to 20 kt Wed night and remain in that range
through the end of the forecast period. Seas will build to 3 to
5 ft by Wed night and then remain in that range for much of thu
before perhaps subsiding about a foot Thu night.

Long term /Friday through Sunday/...

as of 300 am Tuesday... A small craft advisory is likely for all
waters Fri and Fri night with conditions possibly lingering
into sat.

Slow moving area of low pressure will be moving across the ohio
valley fri. Its accompanying warm front will move across the
waters fri. As low pressure moves offshore of the mid-atlantic
states late Fri night and Sat morning, it will strengthen and
drag a cold front across the waters. High pressure will slowly
build across the area from the N and NW Sat night and sun.

Se winds Fri morning will become S and then SW Fri night. The
wind direction will become westerly early Sat morning and then
nw by Sat afternoon. N winds Sat night will become NE overnight
sat with NE winds persisting into Sun before veering to easterly
during the afternoon.

The strongest winds are expected Fri and Fri night, up to 20 to
25 kt. Seas late Fri and Fri night will build to 4 to 7 ft and
around 8 ft at frying pan shoals. Seas during Sat will only slowly
subside as backswell from departing storm system impacts the
waters. Seas should drop below advisory levels by late Sat and
to 2 to 4 ft on sun.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hawkins
short term... Rjd
long term... Rjd
aviation... Dch/rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 5 mi69 min W 5.1 73°F 1015 hPa60°F
WLON7 6 mi54 min 72°F 59°F1016.2 hPa (+0.8)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi54 min WSW 8.9 G 15 72°F 58°F1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi55 min 60°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi46 min SW 9.7 G 14 63°F 60°F1016 hPa
41108 29 mi37 min 59°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi46 min SW 16 G 21 68°F 66°F1015.8 hPa
SSBN7 35 mi84 min 2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi61 minWNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F59°F62%1016.1 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi69 minWSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F60°F80%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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S10SE8S4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5
2 days agoSW12S7S12S11
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S7S8S9S5S4S4S5SE3CalmS6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4S9

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
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Tue -- 04:36 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:06 PM EDT     4.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.22.21.40.6-0.1-0.20.72.23.54.24.44.23.52.51.60.80.1-0.20.41.93.54.44.74.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:50 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.32.21.20.4-00.31.73.44.44.94.94.43.52.51.50.60.10.21.33.14.55.15.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.