Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:59PM Saturday February 17, 2018 9:58 PM EST (02:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 331 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Tonight..S winds 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ200 331 Pm Est Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front south of the waters will lift north this evening as low pressure moving northeast passes just west of the waters. The front will return tonight, moving south of the waters Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the north on Sunday. This front will ultimately move back north as a warm front early Monday. Bermuda high pressure will build across the waters Monday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 172327
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
627 pm est Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis
A stalled front will finally move south across the carolinas
tonight, bringing more in the way of sunshine to the area
Sunday. The front will return north again Monday as strong high
pressure develops off the east coast. This high will bring
several days of southerly winds with record high temperatures
possible Tuesday through Thursday. A backdoor cold front could
knock temperatures down a few degrees on Friday, but warm
weather is expected to persist into next weekend.

Near term through Sunday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Front that was stalled south of the area has
begun lifting back north as a warm front. Weak surface wave moving
northeast along the boundary is helping lift the front back into the
forecast area. Shallow layer of near saturation, from roughly 2k ft
to 6k ft, is starting to show up as echos on kltx. Thus far rain is
not being reported in any locations. As the front returns north this
evening there will be a narrow window where the layer below 6k ft
will be nearly saturated. However, the lack of forcing coupled with
the short duration of the event suggests a low chance of measurable
rainfall. Cannot rule out a few areas measuring a hundredth to two
this evening into tonight but suspect most of what falls from the
sky will lead to dampness with only a few areas ending up wet. Still
this is likely to be the best chance for measurable rainfall during
the period. Front's northward progression is limited and short-
lived. The surface wave moves off to the northeast this evening,
opening the door for the return of high pressure. The north winds on
the backside of the exiting low coupled with northerly flow around
the east side of the building high helps drive the front to the
south in the pre-dawn hours. Low tonight will once again hinge upon
how quickly the cooler air arrives. Warmer solution worked out
better this morning and is likely to be the way to go tomorrow
morning as well. Lows will range from upper 40s to lower 50s.

Front pushes well south of the area tomorrow morning, aided by
stretched shortwave pushing off the coast late tonight. High
pressure builds in from the northwest and quickly shifts east, a
result of the flat flow aloft. Forecast area will experience
significant low level drying and skies are likely to be partly to
mostly sunny tomorrow. Despite light northeast flow, becoming
onshore in the afternoon, the abundance of sunshine coupled with
limited cold advection results in highs above climo. Away from the
immediate coast highs will be in the mid 60s, with highs at the
coast likely to be mid to upper 50s. Any rain chances end with the
passing of the front and tomorrow will be dry.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... A cloudy yet warming period on tap for the
short term. Warm front lifting through late Sunday night into Monday
morning to yield warm and moist advection. Ascent will be very
sloped and gentle though so rainfall chances will remain very low
and QPF prospects negligible. Mid level ridge starts building into
the area from offshore late Monday night helping to start decreasing
cloud cover.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... An exceptionally strong upper level
ridge is expected to develop next week off the east coast. 500
mb heights up to 591 dam would be above normal in august, and
should be among the highest values ever observed locally this
early in the season according to the SPC sounding climatology
webpage. The penn state GEFS ensemble viewer
(http: cms.Met.Psu.Edu SREF gefs) shows 500 mb height
forecasts nearly 3 standard deviations above normal for several
days next week. This should be a vertically stacked high with
deep southerly flow transporting an unseasonably warm and humid
subtropical airmass across the carolinas.

High temperatures are expected to reach 80-83 degrees Tuesday
through Thursday inland, with somewhat cooler readings expected
near the coast due to nearshore water temperatures still in the
50s. The warmest days are expected to be Wednesday and Thursday
where record highs are currently forecast in florence and
wilmington. Thursday should be the warmest day near the coast as
an upper level trough passes through new england, veering
surface winds a bit more westerly which will delay suppress the
seabreeze and its cooler, maritime influence. I think Thursday
may have the best potential for myrtle beach to achieve a record
high.

As the trough passes through new england and canadian high
pressure advances eastward across the great lakes, a backdoor
cold front will get shoved southward into the carolinas Thursday
night. To be a day 6 forecast there is surprising agreement
among the gfs ECMWF canadian models with the timing of this
front. Cooler northeasterly winds behind the front should
suppress temperatures by 5-10 degrees on Friday. As the ridge
rebuilds again Friday night the front should return north with
our temperatures rising well above normal again on Saturday.

I've kept the forecast dry through the period as it appears each
day's cumulus field should be capped off by a subsidence
inversion 6000-9000 feet agl associated with the strong upper
ridge. While it's possible a sprinkle or light shower could
develop from shallow diurnal convection beneath this inversion,
coverage of rain should be less than 10 percent each day. The
best potential for a shower might be on Wednesday as both the
gfs and ECMWF show a pocket of enhanced mid-level moisture
passing across the central and western carolinas during the day.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... Messy conditions in the region as a litany of
fronts and pressure systems remain in the area. Expect ifr to
MVFR conditions for the next several hours as a more pronounced
front will move across from the west slowly eliminating the
moisture. Not a sudden change in conditions so ifr to MVFR could
linger well into the morning hours especially along the coast.

Vfr conditions should develop later Sunday.

Extended outlook... Sun morning becomingVFR. Tempo MVFR ifr shra
cig vsby Sun night mon. BecomingVFR tue.VFR shra wed.VFR thur.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Northeast surge has weakened
considerably during the last 2 hours or so and the SCA was
allowed to expire at 2 pm. Surface high continues to build down
the coast but as its influence weakens a front, stalled south of
the area, will lift north later this afternoon and evening as
weak low pressure in eastern ga moves northeast. The front is
expected to lift north and west of the waters tonight with a
brief period of enhanced southerly flow around midnight. Speeds
may briefly touch 20 kt but not for a long enough duration to
warrant any headlines. The exiting low will be followed by a
cold front, pushed well south of the waters a little after
daybreak sun. Cold advection behind the front does not appear
particularly strong however, the gradient will result in wind
speeds on the high end of the 15 to 20 kt range. Seas falling to
2 to 3 ft overnight will start to build as northeast flow
develops and then increases sun. Most areas will experience 2 to
4 ft seas but isolated portions of nc zones could see 5 ft late
in the period.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Wind turns onshore Sunday night as a warm
front approaches the coast. Then on Monday a turn to SE expected as
the boundary moves northward. High pressure center shifting from our
north to west atlantic Monday night will turn winds southerly. Wind
speed and seas will show a gradual downward trend for the entire
period.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Strong high pressure will build off the
east coast next week, bringing gentle southerly winds Tuesday
and Wednesday. By Thursday winds should veer more southwesterly
in advance of a backdoor cold front that is expected to reach
the CAPE fear area sometime Thursday night. This should be a
very warm airmass, perhaps too warm for any sea fog to develop
despite an otherwise favorable situation.

A large region of easterly and southeasterly winds south of the
big atlantic high should produce a 9-second southeasterly swell
that could reach 3 feet out at 20 miles distance from shore.

Shorter period wind waves of 1-2 feet are also expected.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Iii
short term... Tra
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi40 min 52°F 57°F1019.2 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi40 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 55°F1019.4 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi50 min SE 3.9 G 7.8 54°F 54°F1018.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi29 min 54°F3 ft
41108 29 mi28 min 54°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi50 min S 3.9 G 9.7 62°F 67°F1018.8 hPa
SSBN7 35 mi136 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 36 mi50 min S 1.9 G 3.9 52°F 53°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi65 minN 39.00 miA Few Clouds52°F50°F93%1019.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi83 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist51°F50°F97%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE6N6N7N10NE9E13
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E10E9E8NE14E12E11E10
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1 day agoSW10SW8SW10SW12SW9SW10SW12SW11SW9SW9SW11SW10W18
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2 days agoSW4SW6SW5SW7SW5SW5SW7SW7SW6SW6SW7SW11SW9W15
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Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:22 AM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:48 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:48 PM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.61.810.4-0.10.112.43.544.13.93.32.41.60.90.30.10.723.23.83.93.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:50 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:28 AM EST     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:48 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:25 PM EST     4.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.61.60.80.30.10.623.44.34.54.54.13.32.31.40.70.30.51.5344.44.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.