Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Silver Lake, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:30PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:38 PM EST (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 859 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from midnight est tonight through Sunday evening...
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Areas of dense fog early this evening. A chance of showers before midnight, then showers with a chance of tstms late. Vsby 1 nm this evening.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 20 kt, becoming w. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 859 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move across the appalachians tonight and into the northeast Sunday, producing increasing winds and Thunderstorm chances late tonight into Sunday morning. Dry canadian high pressure will bring cold air next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Silver Lake, NC
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location: 34.14, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200217
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
917 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms
tonight into early Sunday. Dry canadian high pressure will
build in behind cold front through early next week and will
provide some of the coldest temperatures so far this winter
season.

Near term through Sunday
As of 930 pm Saturday... The warm front moved across the
wilmington airport around 745 pm and the fog dissipated almost
immediately. Webcams from carolina beach, wrightsville beach,
and surf city show fog has largely dissipated in these locations
in the past 30 to 45 minutes. The next "event" should be an
increase in southerly winds and in air temperatures as
subtropical air surges northward.

Radar composites show a large area of moderate to heavy rain
with an embedded line of convection entering western south
carolina. This is still expected to reach the pee dee area
shortly after midnight and the coast before daybreak. No
significant changes are needed to the forecast. Discussion from
630 pm follows...

a couple of significant changes are needed to the forecast this
evening. Dense sea fog is in place north of CAPE fear as seen
on surfchex.Com webcams at carolina beach and surf city. An sps
will be issued to address locally dense fog for the next few
hours. This fog has developed along and north of the warm front
which extends from east of CAPE fear to near southport and then
north- northwestward across elizabethtown. All models show
increasing south winds over the next few hours which should move
this boundary north, with improving visibility anticipated as
winds turn southerly and increase by 10 pm.

Dewpoints across much of the eastern half of south carolina and
georgia crashed into the 40s this afternoon. This appears to be
due to bone-dry air above the subsidence inversion across
florida and eastern georgia getting incorporated into the deep
daytime boundary layer, then advecting north. This slug of low-
level dry air will delay the onset of precip by several hours
across the pee dee region i-95 corridor, and i've pushed back
the onset of precip by several hours until after midnight. Once
the 850-700 mb conveyor of deep moisture arrives, showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms look certain to occur and i've
increased pops to 100 percent for most areas.

North of the warm front in the wilmington metro area i've
lowered forecast lows into the 54-56 range with little change
elsewhere. A strong warming trend is still indicated in temps
overnight as southerly winds increase ahead of the line of
showers and storms preceding the cold front. Wind gusts late
tonight could exceed 30 mph even outside of convection just due
to the strong low level jet overhead.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Strong cold air advection behind the
passing cold front Sunday night will gradually drop temperatures
throughout the night into Monday morning. Low temperatures are
expected to bottom in the mid 20s, which is about 10 degrees
below normal for this time of year. Highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s Monday will be much below normal... Between 25 and 30
degrees below normal. Another cold night expected Monday night
with lows in the lower to mid 20s. Mostly clear skies and dry
conditions will prevail.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Cold start to the week continues
Tuesday morning as a cold air mass and strong cold air advection
continues behind the passage of the cold front from earlier
Sunday. Southerly flow returns during the day Tuesday to bring
warmer air into the region and temperatures return to near
normal. Warming trend with above normal temperatures continues
into Wednesday ahead of the next approaching storm system. Early
projections indicate another round of moderate to heavy rain at
times Wednesday and Thursday with chances for thunderstorms,
mainly along the coast. After the cold frontal passage, expect a
return to dry conditions and near normal temperatures for late
january.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z... Easterly flow off of the ocean is creating a few
areas of ifr along the coast in nc. Additionally, moist air over
the ocean is leading to a few areas of sea fog. Some sea fog
could extend to coastal terminals, mainly in nc, although cre
may see a brief period of fog as dew points hold steady near 60.

Dry air to the south, moving northward, should prevent sc
terminals from having flight restrictions ahead of the line of
precip.

As easterly winds become southerly over the next 2-3 hours, expect
this to end andVFR CIGS to develop. Low-level jet associated with a
passing low pressure system will bring a good chance of llws 03z-12z
at all terminals. Along with the low-level jet, a line of
precipitation will impact the inland terminals around 06z increasing
in intensity as it moves east, and impacting the coastal terminals
around 09z. Heavy showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible
although confidence is too low regrading the development of embedded
ts to include in the taf. MVFR CIGS will develop just ahead of the
line of showers and last through ~16z, followed by clearing from
west to east due to a cold front. Expect gusty northwesterly winds
to develop behind the line of showers and the following cold front.

Extended outlook... MVFR conditions possible lingering into Sunday
evening.VFR Monday and Tuesday. MVFR conditions possible with a
frontal passage on Wednesday.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 930 pm Saturday... Webcams are showing the dense fog has
largely dissipated in the past 30-45 minutes at carolina beach,
wrightsville beach, and surf city. This is due to the warm front
moving northward as expected. I'll let the dense fog advisory
expire at 10 pm. Winds at the frying pan shoals buoy are now
gusting to 25 knots from the south. These stronger winds will
overspread the coastal waters by midnight. The remainder of the
forecast looks fine and no significant changes are needed.

Discussion from 630 pm follows...

webcams from carolina beach and surf city show dense sea fog
has developed. A dense fog advisory is now in effect until 10 pm
between CAPE fear and surf city. The fog is preceding a warm
front which should move northward and out of our area late this
evening. Strengthening southerly winds will then develop across
the entire forecast area, culminating in gusts over gale force
late tonight. A current check on buoy- reported sea heights
shows 2 feet across the area, but this should build
substantially overnight in response to the increasing wind
speeds.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Strong offshore winds continue Sunday
night behind the cold frontal passage 25 to 30 kts with gusts as
high as 45 kts. Significant wave heights on the order of 6 to 8
feet with 6 to 8 second periods. Winds will gradually decrease
toward Monday morning and gale conditions decrease. Concerns for
small craft operating the offshore waters may continue through
the day Monday as wave heights continue to be elevated.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Seas become calmer 2 to 4 feet with
shifting winds 10 to 15 kts through the period with a series of
frontal passages . For mid week the next chances for hazardous
seas would be in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame with the
next approaching disturbance with chances for thunderstorms,
increasing winds and significant wave heights.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Gale warning from midnight tonight to midnight est Sunday
night for amz250-252-254-256.

Dense fog advisory until 10 pm est this evening for amz250.

Synopsis...

near term... Tra
short term... Mck
long term... Mck
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 6 mi45 min 58°F 47°F1007.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi45 min S 8 G 8.9 56°F 1008.3 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi31 min S 9.7 G 12 60°F 58°F1007.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi39 min 57°F2 ft
41108 29 mi39 min 55°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 32 mi31 min SSW 7.8 G 12 62°F 59°F1008.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi91 min S 12 G 16 58°F 54°F1008.3 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC10 mi46 minSSE 510.00 miA Few Clouds58°F55°F93%1007.9 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC16 mi59 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F57°F86%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE3E5E3NE3E5E8E11E11E7E8SE8E7SE6E5SE4SE4S5
1 day agoCalmS4------------------W6W6W6W8W10W6W5W6N4CalmCalmSE3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW3NE3NE8NE4NE4E8E6SE6E4E3E5E3CalmN3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
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Sat -- 01:23 AM EST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:55 AM EST     4.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:28 PM EST     3.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.4-0.30.72.23.54.24.44.13.52.721.30.4-0.10.11.12.43.33.83.73.22.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Sat -- 02:08 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EST     4.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:13 PM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.1-0.5-0.11.12.844.64.74.33.62.71.91.10.3-0.20.31.52.93.74.13.93.32.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.