Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:12PM Saturday December 16, 2017 11:47 AM EST (16:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 4:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt, then becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 kt or less, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 901 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will move over the waters through the weekend shifting east and farther offshore through early next week. The next cold front will move across the waters late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 161612
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1110 am est Sat dec 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the carolinas today and shift
offshore later today thru Sunday. Below normal temperatures will
continue today and tonight. A cold front will move into the area and
stall Mon thru Mon night. Hit or miss showers will occur from early
mon thru Mon night with amounts generally less than one tenth of an
inch. Low pressure from the gulf coast states will push across the
area Wed thru Thu with a chance for substantial rainfall. High
pressure will follow for the late week period.

Near term through tonight
As of 915 am Saturday... Weak confluent flow aloft will persist
across the eastern u.S. With surface high pressure across the area
through tonight. Other than patchy high cloudiness, skies will be
mostly clear through the period. Below normal temperatures will
continue through tonight as well with highs today in the lower to
mid 50s, and lows at or just below freezing away from the coast
tonight. Light winds with a weak pressure gradient across the area.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
As of 345 am Saturday... Low amplitude ridging aloft, with the
ridge axis extending north across the fa from the bahamas, will
persist thru this period. A mid-level S W trough ejected from the
desert SW early Sunday, will track to the NE remaining well north of
the fa as it passes by. At the same time de-amplifying as it gets
absorbed in the mean flow by late sun. The southern branch of the
jet stream will dominate the local area, keeping any cold air or
outbreaks well north of the fa this period.

Sunday will be a mostly sunny early with increasing mid and
upper level clouds by afternoon. Low level cloudiness will
become more persistent late Sunday night thru Tue as a cold
front drops south and stalls as it becomes parallel with the
upper flow oriented from the ene to wsw across the fa. Will
indicate low chance for isolated to widely scattered light
showers to break out early Monday morning and continuing thru
mon night. As for temps, stayed close to a consensus of avbl mos
guidance as a start followed by the addition of a few degrees
especially for maxes Sun and mon.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... On Monday the 12 utc runs of the ecmwf
and GFS are showing a trough cutoff low south of the 4 corners
area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by
Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east. By
Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it has
this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal flow.

The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the oklahoma and arkansas
border and the model weakens and dissipates this features as if
has moves off the east coast. Therefore confidence in the
extended forecast is not high.

The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday
before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and
Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but
the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the
forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday
with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy
out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker.

With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region
expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
As of 18z... High confidence forVFR conditions through most of the
forecast period. High pressure centered to our west will give us
light northerly flow with moderate subsidence. Other than jet
cirrus, little to no clouds are expected. There may be some light
fog around sunrise, but it should not be much of a problem. Sunday,
light southerly flow with increasing clouds at the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... SundayVFR. Unsettled weather Monday through
Thursday morning as a near stationary front moves in and out of the
region.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 915 am Saturday... A surface ridge axis aligned along the
carolina coastal plains will maintain light northerly flow across
the adjacent waters. Light and variable winds expected tonight
as high pressure shifts farther east. Seas will be 2-3 ft today,
and subside to 1-2 ft tonight.

Short term Sunday through Monday night ...

as of 345 am Saturday... Rather docile wind and sea conditions
Sunday that will likely persist thru Monday with only a few
knots of wind added and up to 1 foot for significant seas.

Center of high pressure overhead early Sunday with a variable
wind direction under 10 kt, will push offshore late Sunday
resulting in a brief southerly return flow. An approaching cold
front will produce SW to W flow at 15 kt or less Mon thru mon
night due to a slight tightening of the sfc pg. The front will
stall oriented ene to wsw across the local waters in the
vicinity of CAPE fear late Mon thru Mon night. Winds W to wnw
north of the stalled front and sw-wsw south of the front.

Significant seas will run 1 to 2 ft Sun thru Sun night and
2 to occasionally 3 ft Mon thru Mon night. An easterly 1 foot, 9
to 10 second period ground swell will dominate the local waters
sun thru Sun night. Wind induced waves at 3 to 5 second periods,
mon thru Mon night may become the more dominant player in the
sig. Seas.

Long term Tuesday through Wednesday ...

as of 3 pm Friday..An unsettled period for the marine forecast
with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold
front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Will have to watch if small craft conditions develop after the
cold frontal passage but otherwise expect seas of 2 to 4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Dch
long term... Drh
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi78 min SE 1.9 G 6 43°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi156 min 1029.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi55 minSE 510.00 miFair45°F24°F44%1026.8 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi53 minNNE 310.00 miFair45°F23°F43%1027.1 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi52 minVar 310.00 miFair45°F24°F44%1027.7 hPa

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6W12W9W9
G15
SW8W5W3N9N9N6NW3N3CalmNW5N7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE5
1 day agoSW6W5W9SW5SW4S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW4SW6
2 days agoW5W9SW6
G14
SW12SW8SW6SW8S6S7S6S6S8SW10SW9SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9SW7SW7W8W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EST     1.79 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:39 PM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:58 PM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.81.71.41.10.60.200.10.40.91.31.82.12.11.91.61.20.70.40.20.40.71.11.5

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:13 AM EST     1.25 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:53 PM EST     1.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:21 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:15 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.21.210.80.50.20-00.20.50.91.21.41.51.41.20.80.50.20.10.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.