Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Florence, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:42PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 7:14 AM EDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 4:11AMMoonset 4:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 312 Am Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Strong and expansive canadian high pressure will build across the waters through Wednesday. The center of the high will temporarily park itself across the western carolinas during the mid to late week period. The high's center will migrate to the ne states during this weekend with ridging continuing to extend across the carolinas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Florence, SC
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location: 34.14, -79.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 171100
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
700 am edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure building into the mid-atlantic states
today will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the
carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as
the high moves off the coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Tuesday... A somewhat potent mid level trough continues to move
eastward this morning as high pressure, centered across the
tennessee valley continues to build in. Some high level moisture
will continue to stream across the area for the next few hours, but
that should be about it. Soundings are very dry and do not support
any kind of thin convective clouds later today. So its high and dry
through the period. Highs today, with guidance tightly clustered
should be in the upper 60s. Wednesday's lows with still some
boundary level wind to contend with especially eastern areas should
be in the middle to lower 40s slightly higher southernmost
areas.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 300 am Tuesday... Classic fall weather will remain in
place Wednesday and Thursday across the carolinas. The mid and
upper level flow should be northwesterly as a 700-500 mb ridge
develops across the lower mississippi valley. Subsidence
downstream of this ridge should support a surface high across
the mid-atlantic states and a well-defined subsidence inversion
across the carolinas. The only potential for cloud cover
through the period appears to be Wednesday night or early
Thursday as some thin maritime stratocumulus developing just
beneath that subsidence inversion could approach the coast. As
the surface high sinks southward later Thursday and Thursday
night any clouds should get squashed back offshore.

Models are in good agreement with highs (71-73 Wednesday and
75-77 Thursday) but only in fair agreement with lows given
differences in low-level winds and their impact on the strength
of the nighttime radiational inversion near the coast. My
forecast is on the low end of MOS guidance, especially near the
coast Wednesday night.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... It will remain high and dry through much
of the period as one area of high pressure slips off the
northeast coast and another one takes hold over the southeast.

Will maintain a northerly flow throughout much of the period.

The pcp water values remain down near a half inch Fri with a
slight rise as winds come around to a more easterly direction
sat aftn. Any clouds or pcp over the waters should remain off
shore as winds stay parallel to the coast through Saturday, but
as coastal trough develops Sat night into Sunday may see greater
potential for clouds along the coast and some pcp, mainly over
coastal sc. At this time the pcp water begins to increase as
moisture profiles show an increase in shallow moisture below 4k
ft Sat night into Sun and increase in potential for higher
clouds through Sunday. The moisture returns just beyond the long
term period when a deep southerly return flow develops heading
into Monday as coastal trough warm front pushes on shore and
north.

The temps will warm through the period as air mass modifies and
winds come around to a more easterly direction allowing for some
moisture return off at the low levels. Min temps within a few
degrees of 50 Fri night will end up around 60 by early next
week. MAX temps will make a return to 80 or above over the
weekend. Overall temps will be running above normal once again.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 12z... High pressure will persist across the TAF sites for the
next 24 hours withVFR no cigs. Winds generally from 10-40 degrees
10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, decreasing by afternoon. The only
potential... Albeit low... For low clouds would be at kilm after 09z
where thin maritime stratocumulus could develop as moisture gets
trapped just beneath a subsidence inversion.

Extended outlook... Possible MVFR CIGS thurs am. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Strong small craft conditions still
reside across the waters as expected. 41013 is reporting
sustained winds near 30 knots and seas are between 6-9 feet at
the buoys. Winds should decrease gradually through the period
ending up at 15-20 knots from the northeast by Wednesday
morning. Seas will follow suite but still remain elevated by the
end of the period with small craft conditions continuing.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... High pressure will remain situated
across the mid- atlantic states through the period. This should
maintain a 15-20 kt northeasterly wind across our coastal waters
Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday night the center of
the high will begin to sag into north carolina, reducing the
pressure gradient across the area and allowing wind speeds to
fall to only 10 knots or so. Winds and seas will probably remain
high enough for the small craft advisory to remain posted
through the day Wednesday.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Winds will become more easterly over the
weekend. The northerly surge will abate as winds diminish as
well, allowing for seas to subside to 2 to 4 ft Fri and sat.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 pm Monday... Astronomical tides are increasing as we
approach a new moon. This coupled with strong NE winds, may
breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at wrightsville beach
beginning today, and advisories may be needed along portions of
the coast the next several days. The same will be true of the
lower CAPE fear including the downtown wilmington area.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
256.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for amz254.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Shk
short term... Tra
long term... Rgz
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 53 mi45 min N 6 G 8 51°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 55 mi45 min 1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Florence - Florence Regional Airport, SC4 mi22 minNNE 810.00 miFair48°F44°F86%1024.7 hPa
Marion County Airport, SC22 mi20 minN 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1024.7 hPa
Darlington, Darlington County Jetport Airport, SC23 mi19 minN 610.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from FLO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW5W6W11NE5NW6NE16
G23
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N9N11NE6NE6NE6N6N5N6N9N9N9N9N10N9N8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS33S4Calm5S5S5S4S4S8S4S7S5W4SW3SW5W4SW6SW6SW3SW5
2 days agoN6N8N7N10NW4N4W4CalmN4Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE7SE6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Rhems, Black Mingo Creek, Black River, South Carolina
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Rhems
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Tue -- 12:27 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:52 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:58 PM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:13 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.221.71.20.80.40.30.50.91.41.82.12.22.11.81.40.90.40.20.30.71.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:36 AM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:08 PM EDT     1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.51.51.41.20.90.50.30.10.20.50.91.21.41.51.51.310.60.30.10.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.