Friday, July21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channel Islands Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday July 20, 2017 9:45 PM PDT (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:17AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 812 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Strongest winds western portion. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt...becoming 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 812 Pm Pdt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 00z...or 5 pm pdt...a 1026 mb surface high was 600 nm miles nw of point conception and a 1007 mb thermal low was near las vegas. Light to moderate west to northwest flow across the coastal waters will continue through Friday night then gradually weaken through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channel Islands Beach CDP, CA
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location: 34.15, -119.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 210355
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
855 pm pdt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
The overnight coastal marine layer will spread into the local
valleys, at times, and persist into next week. The dominate high
will bring temperatures around normal this week, with a slight
cooling for next week. A moist monsoonal flow will bring possible
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings for the
deserts and mountains on Monday and Tuesday.

Short term (tonight-sun)
the marine inversion was near 900 ft deep at lax and near 1500 ft
deep at vbg early this evening. Low clouds were noted along portions
of the sba county central coast and also near the l.A. County coast.

The low clouds are expected to expand overnight and cover much of
the coast and some adjacent vlys later tonight, except along the sba
county S coast due to northerly canyon winds blowing thru and below
the santa ynez mtns. Otherwise, mostly clear skies will prevail
across the forecast area thru tonight. Locally gusty sub-advisory
level winds will prevail this evening across the sba county mtns and
s coast mainly W of goleta. Gusty SW winds in the antelope valley
this evening will diminish overnight.

Upper level ridging with 500 mb heights around 591-592 dm will
persist over SRN ca thru Fri night, then the ridge will expand over
the area on Sat with 500 mb heights increasing to around 593 dm
before slightly weakening on sun.

Little change in the overall weather pattern can be expected fri
thru sun. The marine inversion will remain shallow thru the period,
in the 800 to 1400 ft range or so, and an eddy is expected over the
socal bight each night and early morning. Varying amounts of night
and morning low clouds and fog will prevail along much of the coast
and into some of the adjacent vlys. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
can be expected across the region thru sun.

Decent onshore flow will prevail each afternoon and evening, with
some gusty S to W winds expected for the foothills, mtns and
antelope valley. Locally gusty north canyon winds will also be
possible each evening thru Sat for the sba county S coast and mtns,
especially W of goleta.

Temps across the region will warm to several degrees above normal in
the warmest vlys Fri thru sun, altho Sat will be the warmest day
during the period. Temps closer to the coast will be near normal for
the most part thru sun.

***from previous discussion***

Long term (mon-thu)
overall, 00z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.

At upper levels, center of ridge will meander around the four
corners area. Near the surface, weak onshore flow will continue.

Forecast-wise, main concern for the extended will be the potential
for some monsoonal moisture. At this time, mid-level flow turns
southeast to south which will be favorable for some monsoonal
moisture to move into the area. At this time, the moisture still
looks to be rather high-based, so chances of any significant
thunderstorm activity is minimal. However, there will be a slight
chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms over the mountains and desert
areas in the afternoon evening hours on Monday and Tuesday. If any
thunderstorms do develop, they will likely not produce a lot of
rain due to the forecast moisture profile. So, gusty outflow winds
and dry lightning would be the main potential threats. For
Wednesday and Thursday, the flow turns more southwesterly which
will shunt any moisture to the east, limiting any thunderstorm
chances.

Otherwise, the marine layer will continue to impact the coastal
plain through the period. As for temperatures, expect minor
fluctuations from day-to-day, but still at or slightly above
seasonal normals.

Aviation 20 2350z
at 2313z, the marine inversion at klax was around 800 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was at 3100 ft with a temperature of 25 deg c.

Moderate confidence in the 00z tafs at all coastal airfields except
ksba due to uncertainties in the timing of the low clouds and
lifr ifr MVFR conditions. The low clouds are expected to move into
the airfields from around 04z at ksmx to around 11z at koxr and
kcma. The low clouds should clear toVFR between 16z and 18z fri
then continueVFR thru Fri afternoon. The timing of the onset and
dissipation of the low clouds may be off + - 1 to 2 hours or so.

Otherwise there is generally hi confidence in the 00z tafs at kprb,
ksba, kbur, kvny, kwjf and kpmd withVFR conditions expected thru
fri afternoon, altho there is a 20 percent chance of MVFR cigs
developing at kbur late tonight into early Fri morning. Gusty SW to
w afternoon and evening winds will persist at kwjf and kpmd.

Klax... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z TAF due to
uncertainties in the timing of low clouds and ifr MVFR conditions
later tonight thru Fri morning. The low clouds are expected to move
into the airfield around 08z then clear toVFR around 18z Fri and
continueVFR thru Fri evening. The timing of the onset and
dissipation of the low clouds may be off + - 1 to 2 hours or so.

Kbur... Generally hi confidence in the 00z TAF withVFR conditions
expected thru Fri afternoon, although there is a 20 percent chance
of MVFR CIGS developing late tonight into Fri morning.

Marine 20 800 pm.

High confidence that small craft advisory winds will continue
through at least Saturday and possibly through Sunday across the
outer waters. There is a 30 percent chance of gale force winds
on Friday afternoon and evening, mainly northwest of the channel
islands.

For the nearshore waters north of point conception, small craft
advisory level winds will likely continue through Friday evening.

There is a 40 percent chance that winds could drop below criteria
between 3 am and 9 am pdt Friday, but winds will increase by the
afternoon hours at the latest.

For the inner waters south of point conception, winds and seas
are expected to generally remain below advisory level through the
weekend.

Beaches 20 205 pm.

The national hurricane center indicates an 80-90 percent chance
of tropical cyclone formation off the mexican coast by early next
week. A wind-driven swell from one or two tropical cyclones could
develop and bring the potential for strong rip currents and
elevated-to-high surf for southern california beaches for mid-to-
late week next week.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from Friday afternoon
through Sunday evening for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Friday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Saturday for
zones 670-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Sunday for zone
673. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
no significant hazards are expected during this period.

Public... Sirard thompson
aviation... Sirard
marine... Gomberg hall
beaches... Hall
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi46 min 65°F5 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 29 mi70 min S 1 G 1.9 64°F 1013.6 hPa
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 30 mi36 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 71°F1013.6 hPa
46251 31 mi55 min 65°F5 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 32 mi36 min W 12 G 16 64°F 67°F1013.9 hPa59°F
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi46 min 71°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 41 mi46 min WSW 6 G 7 67°F 71°F1014.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA5 mi55 minW 710.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1014 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA8 mi50 minWNW 710.00 miFair64°F59°F84%1014.3 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA10 mi51 minW 610.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W5W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmW7SW8W9W10W13W12W12W14W15--W8W7
1 day agoCalmS3S4S4SE5S5SE4E5NW3CalmCalm4W5W8SW8W9W10W10W13W13W12W9W8NW4
2 days agoNW4W3CalmCalm3--NW3W3NW4CalmW3W56W5W11W12W12W13W15W14W12W8SW44

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
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Fri -- 02:57 AM PDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:18 AM PDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM PDT     1.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:30 PM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.3-0.6-1-0.60.31.52.73.74.143.52.82.21.822.73.756.16.86.86.14.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:00 AM PDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:13 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:17 AM PDT     4.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM PDT     1.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:37 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM PDT     6.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.80.4-0.6-1-0.60.31.52.73.74.143.52.82.21.822.63.756.16.86.86.14.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.