Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channel Islands Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:37PM Thursday April 25, 2019 10:46 PM PDT (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:04AMMoonset 11:17AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 807 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 807 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 25 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...a 1030 mb surface high was centered about 300 nm west of vancouver. A 1005 mb thermal low was centered near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channel Islands Beach CDP, CA
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location: 34.15, -119.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 260308
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
808 pm pdt Thu apr 25 2019

Synopsis 25 759 pm.

As onshore winds strengthen, expect low clouds and patchy fog in
coastal areas to move further inland Saturday morning. Clouds will
decrease into the afternoon and there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the interior mountains Saturday. Coastal clouds
and fog will reoccur nightly into the weekend. Sunday, a storm
system brings a chance of thunderstorms and rain into Monday.

Temperatures will cool through Tuesday.

Short term (thu-sun) 25 807 pm.

***update***
once again, another quiet evening across the forecast district.

Earlier today, there were some isolated thunderstorms across
interior sections of ventura sba slo counties which likely
generated some small hail, brief rain and gusty winds. With the
sun setting, this activity has diminished, leaving behind stratus
and fog hugging the coastal plain.

Forecast-wise, the main issue in the immediate short term will be
the marine layer stratus. Latest sounding data indicates a marine
inversion around 1100 feet deep (a bit deeper than Wednesday
evening). With moderate onshore gradients continuing, the stratus
and fog should cover the entire coastal plain and some of the
coastal valleys by Friday morning. Given the depth of the
inversion, there may be some localized dense fog, especially
across the central coast. Otherwise, clear skies should prevail
across interior sections overnight.

Did issue a minor forecast update earlier to scale down pops and
tweak some cloud coverage. Current forecast looks to have a good
handle for tonight and no further updates are planned.

***from previous discussion***
so far cumulus development has been fairly minimal but expecting
some stronger updrafts as daytime heating continues through the
afternoon. If something pops the mostly likely areas would be
northern ventura sb counties and will leave low thunderstorm
chances going through early evening.

Otherwise, marine layer clouds are hugging the coast north and
west of la county and expect clouds to fill in all coastal and
some valley areas overnight. Another round of dense fog possible
for the central coast as the inversion base remains very low.

Not too much change Fri sat. Models showing a little less
instability and moisture so if nothing pops today it's unlikely it
will the next two days, especially Saturday. Weak ridging will
continue Saturday though breaking down through the afternoon as an
upper low approaches from the west. A little stronger onshore flow
expected leading to later marine layer clearing and slightly
cooler temps.

Both the NAM and GFS are a little faster than the ECMWF pushing
the low into the area late Sunday into Monday. This would lead to
some additional cooling for all areas with a stronger onshore
push. It also would result in more unstable conditions over the
mountains Sunday afternoon. The NAM is showing similar CAPE li
values as today but with the added bonus of a little better
forcing aloft due to the position of the upper low.

Long term (mon-thu) 25 230 pm.

Very low confidence in the forecast early next week as a low
moving semi-cutoff upper low approaches from the west. The
operational GFS is still faster than the ECMWF and pretty much has
the low east of the area before noon Monday. However there are a
fair number of GEFS members supporting the slower ECMWF solution.

The outcome will likely be strongly dependent on the timing and
strength of the primary trough dropping out of canada at the same
time as this will be the kicker that finally moves the low east.

Given the uncertainty in the pattern feel it's best to continue
the forecast as is with low pops along with the possibility of
some thunderstorms.

Models not in particularly good agreement after Tuesday so
confidence remains low. The GFS shows the previous trough evolving
into a little inside slider with pretty strong offshore trends by
Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the ensembles and ECMWF support a
slower warm up with less offshore push by mid week and the
forecast definitely trends towards the more conservative trends.

Aviation 25 2310z.

At 2300z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 1000 feet.

The top of the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of
21 degrees celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 00z TAF package. High confidence
in return of cig vsby restrictions returning to coastal and
coastal valley sites with conditions ranging from ifr to vlifr.

However, only moderate confidence in timing of flight category
changes. Moderate confidence in timing of clearing late Friday
morning and Friday afternoon.

Klax... Overall, moderate confidence in 00z taf. High confidence in
return of cig vsby restrictions (with conditions ranging from ifr
to lifr), but only moderate confidence in timing of flight
category changes.

Kbur... Overall, moderate confidence in 00z taf. High confidence in
return of cig vsby restrictions (with conditions ranging from lifr
to vlifr), but only moderate confidence in timing of flight
category changes.

Marine 25 807 pm.

For the outer waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory (sca)
levels through Tuesday.

For the inner waters, good confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

Tonight and Friday morning, local dense fog will impact the
coastal waters with visibilities of 1 nm or less.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday across most areas.

Gusty onshore winds could develop Monday and Tuesday in the
mountains and desert.

Public... Mw
aviation... Rat
marine... Rat
synopsis... Phillips
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi25 min 57°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 29 mi26 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 60°F1015.5 hPa
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 29 mi70 min SW 5.1 G 6 55°F 1015.3 hPa
46251 31 mi16 min 60°F3 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 32 mi26 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 56°F1015.9 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 39 mi46 min 62°F2 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 41 mi34 min 61°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA5 mi55 minNW 46.00 miFog/Mist58°F55°F90%1015.1 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA8 mi1.8 hrsNW 65.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1015.3 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA10 mi51 minNW 46.00 miOvercast with Haze59°F54°F83%1016 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W3CalmS3SE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalm3S4S66W7SW7SW7SW7--W5NW6W6NW4
1 day agoW3CalmS4CalmSE3CalmE3--CalmCalmSE5S7S8S8S8SW8SW8SW66SW5SW3CalmCalmW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE4CalmW7W7SW65W10W11W11W12W9W10W5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:00 AM PDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:07 AM PDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:10 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:19 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:42 PM PDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:29 PM PDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.63.83.93.83.532.31.610.60.40.50.91.52.12.73.23.53.53.43.232.9

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:59 AM PDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:10 AM PDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:10 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:19 PM PDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 06:41 PM PDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:32 PM PDT     2.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.43.63.83.93.83.532.31.710.60.40.50.91.52.12.73.23.53.53.43.232.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.