Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:28PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:54 PM EDT (20:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:39AMMoonset 7:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 314 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight edt tonight through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 10 kt...becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Wed..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 314 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will build westward across the area waters today. A cold front will approach from the west late tonight into Saturday. This front should reach the waters Sunday but may linger nearby until another front pushes it well offshore by late Monday or Tuesday. Dry high pressure will build in behind this front Tuesday through the middle of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231915
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
315 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Deep moisture will become increasingly squeezed by an
approaching cold front through Sunday morning. Some drier air
should move in later Sunday. More seasonable weather will return
next week with isolated mainly afternoon thunderstorms.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... The kltx 88d continues to be relatively echo
free across the ilm cwa. The relatively pinned sea breeze is
identifiable to a degree via the kltx 88d. From hence on out thru
sunset, would not be surprised for isolated convection to break out
especially across the ilm sc CWA where the NVA aloft is not as
strong or prevalent like across the ilm nc cwa. Will only carry
isolated to widely scattered 15-25 pops thru sunset followed by no
pops for the night-time period.

Relatively oppressive, heat-wise, with sfc dewpoints in the mid and
upper 70s and temps around 90 this aftn and evening. Only saving
grace, is that the sfc winds will stay active this aftn thru
tonight, and likely continue thruout the day on Saturday. The sfc pg
will remain tightened thruout this period and will only show some
signs of relaxing well inland during late Sat due to the approaching
frontal boundary. With some decent forcing now avbl, will ramp pops
up big-time during Sat aftn which will mesh nicely with the even
higher pops slated for Sat night. With pws back well over 2 inches
by Sat aftn, heavy rainfall will be the primary tstorm parameter to
affect the ilm cwa. If enough precip loading occurs, then wet
microbursts may become an issue.

As for MAX min temps, just stayed with the meshing of the various
model MOS guidance which gives widespread 70s for tonights lows and
lower 90s for Sat highs and only mid-upper 80s along the immediate
coast given local ssts are in the 80-85 range now.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 3 pm Friday... Slow moving cold front will move into the region
as the period begins with showers and thunderstorms likely ongoing.

There will be an abundance of deep moisture for much of the period.

Precipitable water values rise to almost 2.25 inches Sat night into
sun. Surface based instability will be lacking Sat night but
convergence along the weak surface boundary as well as the presence
of outflows in a moist, conditionally unstable environment should
maintain at least some nocturnal convection. In addition there will
be a little bit of shortwave energy approaching from the southwest
which should lead to an increase in PVA after midnight. Storm
coverage will be highest along the coast but everywhere will have at
least a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.

Front and deep moisture remain in the area sun, although the 5h
trough and drier air to the northwest start moving into northwestern
portions of the forecast area later in the day. This will likely
curtail convection in these areas but closer to the coast coverage
will be higher. There will be another in a stream of shortwaves
within the vorticity channel that spreads some PVA into the area on
sun. Combined with surface heating this should light off another
round of convection. Storm motion will be around 15 kt which should
prevent any 1 storm from posing a flooding risk however, training
storms could pose a problem. Storms that develop will be very
efficient at producing rainfall having warm cloud layers on the
order of 13k-14k ft deep. While severe weather is unlikely given
vertical profiles limited shear a wet microburst from a storm cannot
be ruled out. Still the main concern Sun will be flooding and not
strong to severe storms.

Dry air spreads in from the northwest late Sun and Sun night with
most if not all convection shifting off the coast by midnight. Push
of dry air is significant with pwats forecast to drop over an inch
from 18z Sun to 06z Sun night. Some convection just off the coast
cannot be ruled out late Sun night but wind direction storm motion
would tend to push any activity off the coast and thus pop after
midnight is unlikely. Temperatures Sat night will run well above
climo while temps Sun and Sun night will be near climo.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Mid level troughiness Monday sharpens through
Tuesday or Wednesday. Initially this will be a dry westerly flow
Monday but a slightly more moisture-laden wsw flow Tuesday. Daytime
temperatures will be held a bit below climatology through this time
frame. The trough axis appears to swing through on Wednesday
bringing a more decided drying. The rest of the period will be
characterized by a building upper ridge over the southeast and
bahamas. This will mark a transition back towards seasonable
temperatures and isolated convection mainly during the diurnal
maximum.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z... For the remainder of this aftn and evening, NVA and
subsidence aloft will keep convection from firing and or
developing. The pinned sea breeze may have enough forcing to
overcome the subsidence aloft and result in isolated convection.

Once the days insolation ceases, so will the threat for any
tstrm formation. Have indicated thunderstorm threat by midday
sat as upper levels become more conducive for convection
chances ie. No longer debilitating NVA present overhead.

The sfc pg will remain tightened this aftn thru tonight and
well into daytime sat. The inland terminals will see sw-wsw
10g15 kt thru this period with the exception of possibly going
ssw 10g15kt this evening. The coastal terminals will run ssw-sw
10-15g20+ kt this aftn thru tonight and likely continuing thru
midday sat.

Extended outlook... Local MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are anticipated to be most widespread Saturday
evening thru the overnight.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Marine conditions will continue to erode
thruout this period with scec conditions developing this evening and
further eroding to SCA conditions after midnight tonight. This a
result of the sfc pg, that continues to tighten as a sfc cold front
drops southeast into the western carolinas late tonight. At the same
time, the cindy remnants, will move along this cold front, reaching
the DELMARVA coast Sat morning. Wind directions will run ssw-sw at
10 to 20 kt speeds thru this evening and veer slightly to sw-wsw at
15 to 25 kt speeds toward daybreak Sat and continue thru daylight
sat and into Sat evening. Wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods
will dominate the significant seas and should peak in the 3 to 6
foot range with a few 7 footers off CAPE fear and romain
respectively. Moderate to strong longshore currents will become
apparent, especially south of CAPE fear to murrells inlet.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... As of 3 pm Friday... Will continue to
carry small craft advisory headline Sat night but hazard will be
marginal at best. Front moving into the area combined with
bermuda high will tighten the gradient and speeds will increase
to a solid 20 kt. Sustained 25 kt may be hard to come by and
highest seas may end up closer to 5 ft than 6 ft but given at
least some uncertainty with respect to the strength of the
surface features will maintain the headline unchanged. Bermuda
high remains in control Sun with southwest winds continuing,
though in a weaker state as the front slowly moves closer and
the high retreats east. Winds and seas will gradually decrease
sun into Sun night with flow becoming offshore late in the
period as the surface boundary slips east of the waters.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Not a typical summertime pattern in place for
most of the period. A sharpening mid level trough will be in place.

A series of weak surface boundaries may come through but with only
very minor fluctuations of wind direction, though a northerly
component will dominate. Wind speeds never really look to exceed
10kt by much though a few higher gusts will be possible. Seas will
average 2 to occasionally 3 ft with near shore wave shadowing much
more pronounced than usual this time of year where SW winds much
more common.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am edt Sunday
for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Dch
short term... mbb
long term... Iii
aviation... Dch


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi70 min WSW 7 85°F 1016 hPa77°F
WLON7 5 mi55 min 86°F 83°F1014.6 hPa (-1.3)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi55 min S 20 G 22 81°F 80°F1013.9 hPa (-1.4)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi56 min 80°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi47 min SSW 14 G 21 81°F 80°F1015.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi47 min SW 18 G 21 80°F 80°F1015.6 hPa
SSBN7 41 mi115 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi47 min SW 16 G 21 80°F 80°F1014.9 hPa
41064 49 mi47 min SW 18 G 25 80°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
41159 49 mi42 min 81°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi62 minSSW 14 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1014.6 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi70 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair85°F75°F73%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7CalmS4CalmS3SW5S5S6S6S7SW6SW6SW3SW5S5SW9SW11SW13SW14
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1 day agoSE8SE8S9S6S4CalmCalmSW5SW6SW6SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmSW5SW7W7SW6W9NW8W8SW5SW5
2 days agoW6W4W5W5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW6CalmCalmNW4CalmNW6NW9NW11N5CalmS3S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
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Fri -- 01:36 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:24 PM EDT     -0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.3-0.4-0.40.11.12.23.23.73.73.120.8-0.2-0.8-0.7-01.22.74.15.15.55.14.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:41 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:52 AM EDT     4.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:42 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:18 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.80.8-0-0.20.623.13.843.72.921.20.4-0.3-0.50.41.93.54.54.94.84.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.