Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:27PM Monday June 18, 2018 5:07 PM EDT (21:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:17AMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 331 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers and tstms this evening.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Sat..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 331 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will linger off the coast through the week. A surface trough inland, interacting with this high, will bring gusts to 25 kt overnight into early Tuesday. A cold front will arrive from the north late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181909
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
309 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Hot and humid weather can be expected to crank up in the days
ahead, and heat advisories and even warnings are possible into
mid week. Storms today will mainly affect SE nc this afternoon
to early evening. Rain chances will increase late in the week,
as a cold front drops slowly south of the area. This front may
lift north over the region next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Monday... The heat switch appears flipped to the 'on'
position at this time, with NE sc and SE nc to become
embroiled in increasing daytime heat Tuesday, and onward.

Tstms popping, will trudge sse, and some may be near severe but
isolated at best, mainly because of high downdraft cape, as low
level column shear remains weak. SPC meso-analyst page showing
signals in the microburst composite over SE nc, due in part to
the high sbcapes and pwat values in this area. Low level lapse
rates are high but mid level lrs notably lower, and the updraft
behavior has exhibited this limitation in lethargy so far, but
we should see increasingly strong lower level boundaries become
snaked over the forecast area, increase local updraft velocity.

Heat indices 100-105 Tuesday afternoon, falling shy for duration
and heat intensity for a heat advisory, but a few degrees ticks
of t and TD here and there, could change this, criteria, > 105
on apparent temp scale prompts an advisory, > 110 is a heat
warning.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Another warm and muggy Tuesday night
compliments of broad mid level ridging to our west and a stationary
piedmont trough. Similarly the heat wave continues into Wednesday.

Temperatures will quickly soar into the 90s by midday and heat index
values will reach 105 advisory levels. A weakening flattening of the
ridge however will allow a few impulses to cross the area. The wrf
in particular is quite aggressive in showing convective development.

And with its forecast soundings showing dry adiabatic lapse rates
all the way up to 700mb there could be a small downburst threat.

Ironically though such deep layer lapse rates could also argue for a
deep, dry subcloud layer and only spotty convection. Will target
mainly coastal counties with pops similar to WRF but with tempered
values. Most convection will wane diurnally but with such another
warm and humid night and a continuation of mid level impulses some
20-ish pops warranted Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... The mid level pattern will become more
progressive in time as initially a mid level low moves across
the ohio valley. The small amplified ridge ahead of this system
will push a backdoor front into the area at least briefly Friday
before retreating well to the north over the weekend. Still
good pops for Thursday via a possible MCS and then forcing later
with the front. Guidance has dried out the mid levels somewhat
for the weekend into early next week and have overall jogged
down pops for these later periods. Temperatures will be a little
above climatology throughout the period but not exceedingly so.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z... A cluster of storms overnight will likely leave a
few boundaries behind which will become a focus for convection
this afternoon. These weak outflows will interact with the sea
breeze boundary,mainly affecting lbt and ilm. Moderate southerly
flow becoming more westerly through the overnight hours. Little
to no fog is forecast.

Extended outlook... PredominantlyVFR through Friday with
possible short duration MVFR ifr fog or low stratus each
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening. Chances for rain increase Thursday
through Saturday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Bumpy seas, because wind-sea component
remains dominant this period with 4-5 second wave periods and
seas 4 feet offshore, possibly near 5 ft very outer edge and out
near the frying pan tower. Advisory will be issued because of
expected frequency of 25 kt gusts overnight, mainly between 9 pm
and 9 am. Tstms may impact the waters N of CAPE fear through at
least early evening, as they move NW to se.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... As is usually the case during a heat wave the
marine environment will be characterized by bermuda high-induced
southwesterly winds. The main speed regime will be 10-15kt and gusts
to 20kt will be common by both day and night in the well mixed
environment. Spectral wave bulletins continue to show only two main
groups; a 5 second wind chop along with a 9 second southeasterly
swell of lesser presence. Significant wave forecast will remain 2-3
and occasionally 2-4ft; the higher off of nc coast.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Not necessarily the standard "southwest winds of
10-15 and seas of 2-4 feet" forecast, well at least not for some of
the period. These conditions will be in place Thursday. By Friday a
backdoor front will make a run to the south at lest briefly. There
could be some northeast winds but for now maintained the direction
at easterly into early Saturday. The sea breeze and retreating front
will buckle the direction to more southeast by the end of the
period. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet but could be a little
higher briefly if a decent northeast surge develops.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 pm this evening to 10 am edt
Tuesday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Mjc
short term... mbb
long term... Shk
aviation... Dl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi82 min WSW 7 90°F 1017 hPa78°F
WLON7 5 mi49 min 88°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi49 min SW 15 G 18 86°F 81°F1016.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi37 min 81°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi59 min N 19 G 25 80°F 81°F1015.6 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi59 min SW 19 G 27 81°F 81°F1017.3 hPa
41108 34 mi37 min 82°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi59 min SW 19 G 23 82°F 83°F1017.2 hPa
SSBN7 41 mi127 min 1 ft
41064 49 mi59 min SW 16 G 19 81°F 81°F1016.5 hPa
41159 49 mi37 min 81°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi74 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy89°F75°F65%1016 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi67 minSW 13 G 1810.00 miFair85°F75°F73%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW8SW9SW6S7SW6SW6SW7SW6SW7W8SW6W8SW8SW8SW9W11SW7W9SW11W13SW12SW11SW9
1 day agoS13SE6S5S4S4S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7SW85S8W8S9S6S9SW11
2 days agoSE8E8E8E6E4E4E4CalmE4NE3NE3CalmNE4NE5NE3E11
G16
E7SE8SE7SE7SE9S5S7SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:23 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.94.53.62.31.10.1-0.4-0.30.31.22.33.23.63.63.12.21.20.3-0.1-00.51.52.63.7

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:10 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:00 PM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.54.43.832.21.40.5-0.2-0.10.92.23.13.73.93.732.21.40.700.112.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.