Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmington, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:28 PM EDT (02:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 950 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Overnight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers late.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight.
Mon..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...building to 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 950 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A dissipating front may bring a few showers late tonight and Friday. A stronger frontal system will bring rain and rough seas early next week. Otherwise an early summer pattern will prevail with bermuda high pressure anchored offshore this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmington, NC
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location: 34.2, -77.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 280159 cca
afdilm
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service wilmington nc
958 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will bring a warming and drying trend
late this week through the weekend. A weakening cold front will
bring a few showers or a thunderstorm tonight inland and early
Friday at the coast. A stronger frontal system will bring a chance
of rain late Monday and early Tuesday. Another storm system may
impact the region with a soaking rain next Thursday.

Near term /through Friday/
As of 1000 pm Thursday... Low stratus is developing along the
south carolina coast a few hours faster than anticipated. Have
increased sky cover forecasts and adjusted hourly temperature
curves appropriately as this is interfering with radiational
cooling. The line of showers across central and western south
carolina is slower to move east than anticipated. Latest hrrr
runs show only spotty coverage as it enters the pee dee region
after midnight, but still shows a resurgence as it approaches
cape fear just before daybreak Friday. The hrrr is developing
surface-based CAPE near 3000 j/kg late tonight along the coast--
something I was going to immediately dismiss until I started
adjusting NAM soundings using the observed temp/dewpoint at frying
pan shoals buoy (75/73) and easily got 2600 j/kg. Hmmmm... Pops have
been bumped up to 30 percent in the myrtle beach/cape fear region
after 3 am. Discussion from 730 pm follows...

isolated showers and maybe even a thunderstorm will develop
overnight as a dying cold front approaches from the west. The
meager surface-based instability is becoming capped off due to
the cooling boundary layer, however elevated instability based
around 5000-7000 feet agl will continue overnight. Pops range
from 10-30 percent, lowest near georgetown and highest west of
i-95. The last several hrrr runs and some of the recent ruc
model runs also suggest late- night showers could develop near
the brunswick county coast, although I am not certain what
mechanism is in play.

No significant changes have been made to forecast low
temperatures, expected to range from the mid 60s near and west
of i-95 to the lower 70s on the beaches. This is exceptionally
warm for late april, about 15 degrees above normal.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/
As of 300 pm Thursday... Bermuda high will take hold of the area
with ridging all the way up through the mid and upper levels.

This will maintain a deep southerly return flow with very mild
summer-like weather. Plenty of dry air and subsidence through
the mid levels will maintain a cap on convection although
shallow low level moisture will be quite rich. Overnight winds
should prevent fog, but sounding data shows potential for a few
hours of saturated column up to 1500 ft or so and greater
potential Sat night into Sun morning. Therefore may see some
stratus around overnight but will dissipate as Sun rises sat
morning. Should also see some CU develop right along sea breeze
boundary as it pushes inland Sat aftn. Temps will run about 10
to 15 degrees above normal with plenty of sunshine on sat. Both
fri night and Sat night lows will near or around 70 degrees with
daytime highs soaring through the 80s to around 90 in many
spots inland.

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
As of 300 pm Thursday... Western atlantic high pressure will maintain
deep southerly flow on sun. Although a shower along the seabreeze
can't be ruled out, subsidence on the periphery of the ridge should
keep afternoon convection to a minimum, except along the inflection
point, will keep pops out of the forecast at this time.

Surface and mid level ridge will weaken and drift east mon, allowing
a cold front to approach from the w. Low pressure and associated
strong dynamics and upper level support will be well dislocated from
the carolinas as a cold front moves across the area Mon night. This
suggests convection weakening as it moves into the eastern
carolinas. Current timing brings the likelihood for showers and
thunderstorms later Mon and Mon night.

As the front moves off the coast Tue morning, high pressure along
the gulf coast will slide east and then offshore to our S during
wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low pressure will move out
of the mid south and gulf coast states wed, lifting slowly to the
ne. Its associated cold front will move into the southeast states
thu-thu night, bringing the risk for robust thunderstorms.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
As of 00z Friday... Isolated convective showers associated with a
dying cold front may move into eastern north and south carolina
later this evening. Odds of precipitation occurring at any of
the airports are 20 percent or less, and flight category
restrictions are unlikely. Perhaps of greater concern is the
potential that low stratus will develop late this evening as
very moist air gathering just offshore moves inland. Ceilings as
low as 600-800 feet are possible, with ifr restrictions forecast
in the tafs for ilm, myr, and cre beginning around 05z. It is
worth noting the NAM model has much greater potential for low
ceilings than the GFS or RUC models.

Any low ceilings will either burn off just after sunrise, or
push back offshore as wind directions veer more southwesterly
late tonight.VFR conditions are expected for all areas after
13-14z Friday.

Extended outlook...VFR through Sunday. Periods of ifr/MVFR
conditions are possible in thunderstorms late Monday into early
Tuesday.

Marine
Near term /through Friday/...

as of 730 pm Thursday... The afternoon seabreeze is beginning to
wind down as temperature contrasts across the beaches relax.

Wind gusts as high as 27 knots occurred at wrightsville beach,
24 knots at topsail beach, and 21 knots reported at the
georgetown, sc airport. South-southwesterly winds 10-15 knots
are expected for the remainder of the night. Seas consist of
choppy 4-5 second wind waves overlaid with a 9 second southeast
swell, totaling 3-4 feet, and little change is anticipated
overnight.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly return flow will persist
around the periphery of the bermuda high which will keep a
stronghold on the local waters through the period. Winds will
run 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 to 25 kt possible especially
the nearshore waters during the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will
run 2 to 4 ft, but may see some 5 fters in outer waters.

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Western atlantic high pressure will
bring increasing S winds ahead of a cold front. S winds Sun and
sun night will be increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas will increase
to 4 to 6 ft by early Mon morning.

S to SW wind speeds will increase further Mon and Mon night, up to
20 to 25 kt as seas build to 5 to 8 ft. Then in the wake of the
front tue, developing offshore winds will trend lower. The offshore
trajectories will knock seas down and we should drop below small
craft advisory levels by Tue eve.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Friday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Tra
short term... Rgz
long term... Rjd
aviation... Tra
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 3 mi103 min WSW 6 73°F 1014 hPa72°F
WLON7 5 mi40 min 74°F 72°F1014.5 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 5 mi40 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 72°F1013.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 9 mi29 min 71°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi80 min S 7.8 G 14 73°F 71°F1013.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi80 min S 14 G 18 74°F 73°F1012.9 hPa
41108 34 mi41 min 71°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 41 mi80 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 71°F1013.5 hPa
SSBN7 41 mi58 min 3 ft
41064 49 mi80 min SSW 12 G 18 74°F 1014 hPa
41159 49 mi45 min 72°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC6 mi35 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1014.7 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC21 mi48 minSSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F92%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S10SW8SW7SW5S3S3CalmS4S5SW11SW15W9SW9S15
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1 day agoW8W8W7W6W6W7W8W8SW4W5W4W7W6W5W9W9
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2 days agoS6CalmE4SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3S4SW12W8SW7W10W11W9W9SW17W13W14W14W15W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for Masonboro Inlet, North Carolina
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Masonboro Inlet
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Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:59 PM EDT     -0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
20.6-0.4-0.7-0.40.51.72.93.84.13.831.70.5-0.5-0.8-0.40.51.93.44.65.35.24.5

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 AM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:16 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 PM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.932.11.20.3-0.30.11.42.83.84.34.23.72.81.810.2-0.3-01.22.94.34.95

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.