Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:17PM Sunday May 28, 2017 4:43 AM EDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:00AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 340 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 340 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will hold offshore through Monday. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and then stall through much of next week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day. SW winds will prevail through much of the week as high pressure off the se u.s. Coast continues its foothold across the area waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 280726
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
326 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure well southeast of the carolinas will provide hot
weather today and Monday. Thunderstorms could become more
frequent as a weak front arrives from the north and stalls
nearby Wednesday through Friday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Sunday... Complex situation evolving today creates a
more than challenging forecast, with heat and tstms possible across
the area.

Even before addressing Sunday's weather, analysis of the ongoing
situation must be completed. A complex of tstms moving through the
western carolinas is the last surviving trace of what was once a
powerful mcs. This complex has weakened both due to loss of heating,
but also advection into drier and more stable air as noted on spc
mesoanalysis. While one moderately sized cluster of storms continues
to produce across western central nc, this will likely remain north
of the ilm CWA thanks to 0-6km mean winds on the gso u a sounding
and krax VWP almost directly from 270 degrees. Do not anticipate
convection locally overnight, but debris cloudiness will be
widespread into daybreak.

Synoptic setup for Sunday is quite similar to Saturday, although
minor details create a more challenging, and possibly more active,
forecast. Elongated high pressure along the gulf coast will
gradually advect east and amplify, with mid-level heights climbing
slowly this evening and tonight. To the north, a belt of enhanced
mid-level westerlies will persist between this ridge and a series of
troughs moving through southern canada. Within this belt, vorticity
impulses will move quickly from west to east, with each one creating
the potential for convection beneath it. The challenge today then,
is when will these vort impulses create tstms, and where will they
occur.

Once again, a mid-level cap will be present today, and as the mid-
level ridge amplifies late, it will actually increase in intensity.

However, this likely occurs too late to prevent subtle height falls
within the flat ridge this aftn eve, and the 850-700mb thermal ridge
is noticeably weaker than what was present on Saturday. This
suggests that convection is more likely today, especially as
guidance is in good agreement with timing of a vort moving overhead
during late aftn eve peak heating. The environment will be very
supportive of tstms this aftn, assuming the cap is not stronger than
currently progged, and subsidence behind the current vort isn't too
strong to squelch lift. Big caveats of course, but forecast profiles
suggest very strong MLCAPE of 2000 j kg thanks to highs around 90
with dewpoints around 70, and very steep ml lapse rates. As this
vort moves to the north, storms may grow upscale into another tstm
complex thanks to 0-6km bulk shear of up to 40 kts, and this is
shown in varying degrees on the latest hrrr arw ruc. SPC has placed
se nc into a slgt risk today, with mrgl across NE sc for this
potential. Large hail and damaging winds are the most likely threats.

That being said, do not expect widespread severe weather today. A
cluster of fast moving storms is possible, mostly across nc
counties, but total coverage may end up being isolated to widely
scattered. Differences in timing, subsidence, and the aforementioned
cap all produce enough uncertainty to cap pop at 40 percent well
north, with just schc south of the state line. Convection that does
develop will likely move offshore or dissipate during the evening,
leaving slightly drier air and another lull in convection tonight.

Debris cloudiness and continued warm wsw winds will keep mins very
warm however, falling only into the 70-74 degree range, warmest at
the coast.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
As of 300 am Sunday... A 500 mb ridge centered over florida
Monday will strengthen as it edges offshore Monday night into
Tuesday. Although models still have some disagreement with
specifics, it appears the seemingly never ending trail of upper
level disturbances will remain just north of our portion of the
carolinas Monday through Tuesday, sparing us the worst of what
could be multiple periods of severe weather across western south
carolina and most of north carolina.

Monday appears to be the hottest day of the week as 850 mb temps
climb as high as +19c. Plenty of sunshine should push highs well
into the 90s away from the beaches. Our latest forecast of 94 in
florence is just one degree away from a record of 95 set in
1991. Enough westerly low-level wind should exist to delay the
seabreeze by a couple hours and pin the boundary near the coast.

Dewpoints in the lower 70s near the coast should push heat
indices near 100 degrees in spots.

Forecast thunderstorm chances Monday range from around 10
percent in georgetown to 30 percent in lumberton. This is due
to an increasingly substantial cap of warm mid-level air as you
travel southward closer to the upper level ridge, and also
increasing distance from the wavetrain of upper disturbances
which sets up from central ms al across western sc into nc.

Although thunderstorms should be only isolated in our portion of
the carolinas, steep lapse rates above the subsidence
inversion, mid-level westerly winds of 30-40 knots, and plenty
of dry air aloft means any storms that do form could produce
damaging winds and hail.

On Tuesday the upper ridge nudges just a bit farther off the
florida coast, allowing the wavetrain of disturbances to shift a
little eastward as well. High temperatures should run several
degrees cooler with a convectively-overturned airmass arriving
from the west that should feature 850 mb temps only +15c to
+16c, about 3 degrees c cooler than Monday. This should
translate to highs mainly upper 80s to near 90. The threat for
scattered thunderstorms with strong winds Tuesday afternoon may
linger into the night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... The mid level pattern will show more
amplitude across the eastern u.S. With a broad trough at least
initially dipping into the ohio valley with ridging off to the
southeast. This will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled with
ample moisture and several shortwaves. Differences in the global
solutions as to timing of course but reconciling the various
solutions yields the highest pops, at least for this package
occurring Tuesday and once again Friday and Saturday when the
mid level flow weakens considerably with an old baroclinic zone
providing an impetus for activity oriented east to west. No real
fronts pushing through to provide any appreciable airmass
change with highs and lows maintaining levels a couple of
degrees above average.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
As of 06z...VFR expected much of the valid period, but showers and
tstms may impact the terminals this evening.

Large complex of tstms to the west will dissipate tonight, leaving
increasing debris cloudiness in the form of high level CIGS into
daybreak. High pressure elongated along the gulf coast will
gradually amplify today, but a mid-level impulse moving overhead
this aftn eve may spawn a cluster of showers and tstms. Guidance is
not in good agreement, and confidence is low, but have mentioned a
chance for tsra at lbt only, as confidence is higher there. The
chance for tstms decreases to the south so have not mentioned any
convection at the other terminals, but potential exists that all
terminals could see a shower or tstms this aftn eve. Any tstms would
likely cause temporary restrictions.

Outside of tstms,VFR will prevail although extensive 4-6 kft
diurnal CU is likely. Additionally, SW winds will increase through
the aftn eve, gusting over 20 kts at the coast within the locally
backed sea breeze, and up to 20 kts inland. Winds will ease after
dark, and drying in the column will allow CU to erode late in the
valid period as well.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are possible in
showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. More
typical summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible Wed and thu.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Sunday... Elongated high pressure along the gulf coast
will maintain its local influence across the waters today. Winds
from the SW will slowly intensity today, from 10-15 kts this
morning, to 15-20 kts this evening and tonight. These persistent and
increasing SW winds will create a 5 sec SW chop which will mask the
continuing but low-amplitude SE swell, and seas of 2-4 ft are
forecast through the period. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms
may move in the vicinity of the waters this evening with the
potential for gusty winds and hail, but confidence is low attm.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 am Sunday... High pressure centered south of bermuda
will control our weather through the Monday-Tuesday timeframe
with west-southwesterly winds. As it typical this time of year,
large inland-to-offshore temperature contrasts should produce
well-defined seabreezes both days with wind gusts near the
beaches reaching 20 knots from mid-afternoon through early
evening. Otherwise wind speeds of 10-15 knots should prevail
through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as a
series of weak upper level disturbances move across north
carolina.

Long term Wednesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Its mostly a show of bermuda high
pressure and a summertime pattern with a south to southwest flow
through the period. There may be some local and temporary
distortion of wind fields due to expected convection but the
overall synoptic pattern should remain the same. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Jdw
short term... Tra
long term... Shk
aviation... Jdw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi43 min 73°F 77°F1011.1 hPa (-1.3)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 7 mi58 min W 1 73°F 1012 hPa72°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi43 min SW 6 G 7 74°F 76°F1010.2 hPa (-1.5)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi44 min 75°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi35 min WSW 7.8 G 12 75°F 75°F1011.2 hPa
41108 35 mi26 min 76°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi35 min SW 12 G 18 75°F 77°F1010.8 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi35 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 75°F1011.7 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi103 min 1 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi50 minS 310.00 miFair72°F70°F94%1011.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi58 minSW 610.00 miFair74°F72°F95%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3SW5SW5S7W7SW11SW7W11SW11SW11SW12
G20
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1 day agoW9W8W6W9W10W7W12NW10NW13W11W11
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2 days agoW11SW8SW6SW14SW13
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SW11SW8SW10SW8SW10SW11SW10SW12W10

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Sun -- 12:08 AM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:40 PM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.35.14.53.62.61.40.3-0.30.11.42.93.84.34.43.93.12.11.10.3-0.20.11.43.14.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:12 AM EDT     -0.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:06 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:39 PM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.10.7-0.4-0.9-0.70.21.42.63.53.93.62.91.80.6-0.4-0.9-0.70.11.42.94.14.84.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.