Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:04 AM EDT (15:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:23AMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 939 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of tstms and showers.
Thu..S winds 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 939 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will ridge westward across the area through the middle of the week. A cold front will drop into the area from the north on Thursday and linger near the area Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211409
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1009 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Synopsis
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous mid week as a cold front sags into the area from the
north before slowly dissipating Friday. The upcoming holiday
weekend looks unsettled as a tropical airmass brings the likelihood
for thunderstorms and possibly more heavy rain.

Near term through tonight
As of 950 am Monday... Water vapor imagery suggests there is a
dense plume of tropical moisture still streaming across the
area out of the caribbean. This is true in the upper levels
where the satellite sees, however the 12z chs sounding
confirmed what the models are showing: drying is occurring
below in the 850-500 mb layer with precipitable water values
falling below 1.5 inches... Well below the 2.0 values we saw over
the weekend. While uncapped convective instability should still
develop this afternoon and the seabreeze will undoubtedly
provide enough lift to fire up some showers and thunderstorms,
the dry air should help keep coverage to only 30-40 percent at
best. I've localized the best chances of afternoon convection to
the nc seabreeze zone up through lumberton and elizabethtown.

Shower chances should diminish after dark, and pops have been
lowered significantly overnight. No significant changes have
been made to temperatures, still expected to range from the mid
80s inland to around 80 on the beaches.

Discussion from 300 am follows...

just a few showers off the coast tonight with mainly mid to
high clouds streaming over the carolinas maintaining a partly to
mostly cloudy sky. Lighter winds tonight will drop to near calm
inland and expect good chance of patchy fog mainly inland and
potential for some stratus as moisture remains concentrated
closer to the surface. Temps will hold near 70 most places.

Atlantic ridge will build far enough west through today to
produce a relatively uneventful weather day. Expect mainly
diurnally driven shwrs tstms associated with convergence around
western periphery of high and sea breeze boundary as it pushes
inland through this afternoon. The steering flow will be weak
once again out of the SW and becoming more southerly into the
eve. This could produce some localized ponding of water in any
heavier showers in aftn convection inland. Although mid to high
clouds will be present through today, expect to see some good
periods of sunshine, especially along the coast in the late
afternoon as sea breeze marches inland. Pcp water just around
1.6 inches this morning will begin to drop this afternoon as
drier air and increased subsidence pushes into the area from
s-se to n-nw. Values along the coast will be down closer to an
inch late this aftn and will drop further inland into this eve
as ridge builds in. Once afternoon convection drops off as the
sun sets and diurnal heating comes to an end, showers will
dissipate and expect a fairly quiet, rain free night again mon
night. Increased moisture begins to wrap around the ridge back
into the coastal carolinas again by tues morning. Therefore
expect the potential for showers to increase once again by
Tuesday.

Temps will run a few degrees warmer today, into the mid 80s,
with increased subsidence and fewer clouds. Overnight lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... The eastern carolinas will be on the
western periphery of the bermuda high which will slowly lose
its influence across the area late Wed and Wed night. This will
allow a cold front to the N to sag into the fa late Wed night.

Precipitable water values will be lower Tue than on Wed and with
greater ridging tue, expect the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered. Will show the
higher pops along and W of the seabreeze which should make
steady inland progress during the afternoon. The deepening east
coast trough along with the approaching cold front should spur
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the
greatest coverage expected during the afternoon and through the
eve. Did also highlight heavy rain risk as the moisture return
is through a deep layer and precipitable water values do surge
to near 2 inches.

Typical high temps for late may, lower to mid 80s although a few
upper 80s are possible inland wed. Low temps however will be
considerably above normal. Normal lows for late may are in the
lower 60s. We are forecasting lows in the upper 60s and lower
70s during this period.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... A brief break in the pattern is forecast
thu into early Fri as a mid-level trough digs into new england
driving a surface cold front into the area. Guidance is now
insistent that this feature will stall overhead thu, which
seems likely based off the continued southerly flow impeding its
southern progress. This front in the vicinity will serve as a
focus for convection thu, which combined with pwats near 2
inches will likely lead to widespread showers with isolated
tstms. On Fri this front will waver dissipate with another
round of convection possible, although coverage should be less
than thu.

Thereafter, forecast becomes much more uncertain as a wave of
low pressure develops in the tropics. Most extended guidance
develops this low, but then tracks it slowly with highly
variable solutions. At this point it is far too early to
mention any tropical development, but it is likely that
tropical moisture pooling near cuba will again lift north into
the carolinas. This creates what at this point is almost a
broken record forecast - increasing rain and thunderstorm
chances with heavy rain possible during the memorial day weekend.

Temps through the extended will feature highs around to
slightly above climo, and lows well above normal as diurnal
ranges are limited by clouds cover and humidity.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 12z... Ifr early this morning kflo klbt withVFR coastal
terminals.VFR expected all terminals 13-14z. Convergence
associated with sea breeze boundary as it pushes inland this
morning could produce tempo MVFR CIGS along with vcsh coastal
terminals until around 16z. MVFR ceilings along shra tsra inland
terminals 18z through the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes
further inland. For now, showers and storms are covered with vc
in tafs. Convection should wane around 00z with loss of
heating. Fog expected overnight with MVFR coastal terminals and
lifr inland terminals.

Extended outlook... Some MVFR to ifr fog and stratus possible
again tues morning with sct aftn shwr tstms to follow. MVFR and
possibly ifr conditions will increase late Wednesday into
Thursday as a cold front drops across the area and again next
weekend as tropical moisture returns.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 950 am Monday... No significant changes have been made to
the forecast, other than enhancing the seabreeze winds this
afternoon nearshore a bit. Cormp and ndbc buoys show seas are
right in the middle of the forecast range. Discussion from 300
am follows...

bermuda high will nudge westward through today. This will
maintain a southerly flow overall, but the orientation of the
high will produce a slight backing of the winds from SW this
morning to s-sw by tonight, remaining basically 10 kt or less.

Seas 3 to 5 ft this morning will diminish to 2 to 4 ft by this
afternoon into tonight. The sea breeze will kick winds up a bit
near shore this afternoon.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Bermuda high pressure will gradually lose
its influence across the carolina waters. This will allow a
cold front to the N to sag south and into the northern waters
late Wed night. S winds Tue will become SW Tue night and wed. Sw
winds Wed night will veer to a more westerly direction late and
to the NW across portions of the northern waters prior to sunrise
thu. Wind speeds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 kt range.

Seas will be 2 to 4 ft, a combination of SE swell and wind energy.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... A cold front will briefly turn winds to
the W NW Thu before the gradient eases considerably as the front
wavers and then dissipates across the area into fri. This
brings a period of light and variable winds Thu before easterly
winds develop fri, becoming south late at 5-10 kt. Wave heights
will fall to around 2 ft thu, and then remain there through the
end of the week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis...

near term... Tra rgz
short term... Rjd
long term... Jdw
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi53 min 80°F 76°F1021.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 7 mi80 min W 4.1 79°F 1023 hPa71°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi47 min S 12 G 13
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi35 min 71°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi57 min N 9.7 G 14 73°F 71°F1021.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi57 min SW 12 G 18 73°F 74°F1022.3 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi125 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi57 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 75°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi72 minSW 710.00 miFair79°F68°F69%1021.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi65 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F71°F88%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW12S9
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SW11SW8SW7S5S5SW5S6S6W5SW4SW5SW5SW3SW4SW6SW6SW7SW6
1 day agoSW5S13
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CalmSW11
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S8S8S10S6S6S5S5S4CalmSW10S6SW6SW8S10SW6
2 days agoS4SE6SE6SE9S8SE8SE9S8S7SE8S46S6S6S5SE7SE5SE4SE4SW4SE6S10S14
G20
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G18

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
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Mon -- 01:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:16 AM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:12 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:57 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.94.54.84.74.13.22.31.30.5-00.31.42.73.54.14.343.22.31.50.80.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM EDT     4.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:29 PM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:50 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.14.44.13.220.90.1-0.3-0.20.31.22.23.13.63.632.11.10.3-0.1-0.20.31.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.