Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Belville, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:39 PM EST (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 5:17PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 818 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 10 kt or less. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt or less, becoming se. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
AMZ200 818 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure over the area will move offshore tonight. A cold front will move off the mainland and across the waters Wednesday evening. Arctic high pressure will follow and affect the area waters Thu into Fri. The high will move off the southeast u.s. Coast late Fri and become anchored offshore thru this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belville, NC
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location: 34.23, -77.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170215
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
915 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will slip offshore tonight. A cold front
will approach from the west bringing with it a mix of wintry
pcpn from midday thru late evening wed. Small accumulations of
snow is possible well inland across the northern periphery of
the forecast area. The cold front will slide off the coast and
offshore late Wed night followed by arctic high pressure
affecting the area Thu into fri. The high will slide offshore
late Fri and remained anchored thru the weekend. This will
result in a warming trend with temperatures climbing to and
above normal. The next cold front will bring rain chances early
next week.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 830 pm Tuesday... No changes to the winter wx advisory for
the 6 counties.

Applied some modifications to hourly temps, dewpoints and winds

Mainly lowering all of these parameters this evening based
on observed temps with fcsts running too mild. Thin cirrus
overhead and winds decoupling after sunset aided by a sfc based
inversion setting up, these rad cooling conditions aren't the
best but enough for temps to fall quicker than what was fcst
from guidance. With opaque cirrus increasing late this evening
along with mid-level clouds during the pre-dawn hrs, temps will
likely bottom around midnight followed by either remaining
steady or exhibit a slow rising trend toward daybreak wed.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..

As of 300 pm Tuesday... Main headline for the near term, 'winter
weather advisory' posted for inland portions of the area, for
the potential of around an inch of snow, possibly closer to 2
inches over northern marlboro county. A rain snow mix will be
underway at daybreak west of i-95, spreading eastward, with the
leading edge of stratiform precipitation reaching the coast
midday to early in the afternoon. Areas outside of the advisory,
may see snow as well, but less than 1 inch of accumulation
expected. The rain and snow will be off the coast in the
evening Wednesday.

Adjustments to the advisory may be made overnight with new data,
and we cannot rule out completely, a 'winter storm warning' if 2
inches is expected within 12 hours for portions of the i-95
corridor. Evaporative cooling and cold air advection will keep
maximum temperatures locked into the 30s inland, and 40s near
the coast Wednesday. Snow may not change over to rain near
coastal zones, or if so, not until evening, when temperatures
finally become cold enough, chasing the moisture to sea.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... A northwest flow aloft will prevail through
the period as surface high pressure builds in from the west.

Essentially a temperature forecast as any moisture will be well
off to the northeast. Lows Thursday morning will be in the lower
20s with daytime highs in the lower to middle 40s. Some air
mass modification will keep temperatures a little warmer Friday
morning with mostly middle 20s.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Surface high centered over southern al fri
morning will shift east for the weekend, moving offshore. Very dry
air in place, precipitable water will be under a quarter inch fri
and sat, ensure the region remains dry. Near climo temperatures fri
will start warming Sat as weak low level warm advection begins. The
progressive mid-level pattern, responsible for the surface high's
rapid shift east, will become a little more amplified as a southern
stream shortwave moves along the gulf coast this weekend. The wave
weakens opens up as it lifts into the southeast and it seems
unlikely that it will be accompanied by any rainfall as it passes
late Sat night and sun. Weak 5h ridge starts to build over the
western atlantic early next week which, coupled with low level warm
advection, leads to a warming trend Sun and mon.

Best precip chances during the period continue to be associated with
cold front crossing the area late Mon or Mon night. Parent low
remains displaced well north of the area, moving across the great
lakes and southern canada. Although there is a brief period of
moisture return ahead of the front, moisture will be limited and
current chc pop Mon and Mon night seems reasonable. Cold advection
is limited behind the front as the 5h trough lifts northeast instead
of moving overhead. Lack of cold advection combined with the return
of the 5h ridge over the western atlantic will keep temperatures
near to slightly above climo in the post front environment.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 00z... High confidence for winter precipitation this taf
valid period at kflo klbt, with low to moderate confidence at
the coastal terminals.VFR overnight with light variable winds
and CIGS decreasing to 6k at kflo klbt by 12z. At kflo klbt -ra
should begin mid- morning, at the coastal terminals in the mid-
afternoon.

-sn will mix with the ra at kflo klbt in the late morning becoming
all sn in the early afternoon. Ifr likely mainly due to reduced
vsbys. Surface temperatures will be above freezing thus some melting
of snow should occur on runways. At the coastal terminals -ra should
mix with some -sn towards the end of the TAF period with MVFR vsbys
and ifr CIGS moving in from the nw.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday night ...

as of 830 pm Tuesday... Raised a brief SCA for all waters from
Wednesday evening thru midday Thursday. Have staggered the
beginning and ending of the SCA across the ilm sc and nc waters
using a 3 hour window.

Weak sfc bubble high across the area waters this evening and
overnight resulting in a relaxed sfc pg that will produce a
northerly wind at only 10 kt or less overnight.

Significant seas will basically be a function of a rather decent
2.5 to 3.5 foot easterly ground swell at 9 to 11 second
periods. Not much input from locally produced wind waves.

Previous... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... A decent marine period, prior to worsening
late on Wednesday, as a cold front spills colder air over the
waters. N-nw winds and wind-chop, mainly light, will mix with e
swell this period tonight and Wednesday, with significant wave
heights of 4 feet or less. Late Wednesday, rain may begin to
reduce visibilities.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Expect blustery winds behind a departing potent
mid level system on the order of 20-25 knots from the northwest for
a few hours. With the new airmass coming in from the west, cold air
advection isn't as strong as we have seen the past few events and
winds diminish quickly Thursday to 10-15 knots from the
west northwest where they will remain for the most part through
Friday morning. Significant seas will be 4-7 feet early on falling
in concert with the winds to 2-4 feet by Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Weak surface high southwest of the waters fri
morning will quickly shift east. Southwest flow on the low end of
the 10 to 15 kt range Fri drops to around 10 kt by Sat morning. The
center of the high expands over the western atlantic with the
surface pressure gradient becoming ill-defined. Winds will drop
under 10 kt late Sat night and remain light and variable Sun with
the surface ridge axis in the region.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
scz017-023-024.

Nc... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
ncz087-096-105.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 pm Wednesday to 10 am est Thursday
for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Dch mjc
short term... Shk
long term... Iii
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 0 mi52 min 38°F 46°F1027 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 7 mi115 min W 1.9 38°F 1026 hPa34°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 9 mi52 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 41°F 46°F1027.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi41 min 47°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi92 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 45°F 47°F1027.4 hPa
41108 35 mi40 min 46°F2 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 35 mi92 min N 5.8 G 9.7 51°F 63°F1027.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi92 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 42°F 1027.5 hPa
SSBN7 39 mi160 min

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC4 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair35°F33°F93%1027.3 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC22 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair36°F34°F97%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmNW4NW3NW3NW4NW3CalmCalmN4CalmN3N5SE3NW4NW7SW4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN5N6N4N6N4N8N7N7N7N9NW9NW10N8NW8NW10NW9N7NW8N10N3NW5N4N4N3
2 days ago--N3N5N8N9NE11NE9N12N8NE14N11N13N10
G17
N12N12N10N10N9NE11N5N6N4N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:52 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:23 PM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.90.3-0.10.21.32.63.64.24.64.43.72.81.91.10.40.10.71.92.93.643.93.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:28 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:23 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:05 PM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-000.41.22.23.23.94.23.83.12.11.20.40.10.10.61.42.22.93.232.41.60.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.