Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oakwood, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 25, 2017 4:03 PM EDT (20:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 7:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakwood, GA
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location: 34.24, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 251900
afdffc
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
300 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Short term tonight through Friday night
An anonymously deep upper level low [at least for this time of year]
will continue to pivot toward the northeast through the short term.

Residual shower activity associated with this low has diminished
this morning across the area, thanks to sufficient subsidence. In
the same vein, we have also seen cloud coverage diminishing given
the drying within the column. Clear skies expected from this evening
through tomorrow as surface high pressure builds into the area from
the south. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening and increase
by mid-morning tomorrow, not as gusty.

26

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Only minor adjustments have been made to the extended forecast.

Models continue to advertise decent potential for MCS to impact
the southeast on Saturday, and have kept pops high across north
georgia through the day. Sunday into Monday still looks to have
the potential for robust storms as well. Otherwise, previous
forecast discussion is applicable and is included below.

31
issued 509 am edt Thu may 25 2017
extended period begins with shortwave ridging building in in the
wake of the anomalous upper low exiting. ECMWF centers a weaker
ridge over the northern gulf while the GFS and SREF slightly
stronger. All of the models put the tn valley and north ga in a
slightly diffluent flow atop the ridge centered over the north
central gulf. Current consensus is to run low pops across the
north on Saturday... But a deeper look into the environment makes
one wonder if the atmosphere will behave. Gfs, ecmwf, and NAM all
destabilizing the airmass across far north ga significantly on
Saturday. Lapse rates forecast to exceed 8.0 deg c km and even
approach 8.5 depending on what model you look at. Combined with 0-
6km shear values 40 kts and sb CAPE values AOA 2000 j kg and even
more in the GFS mean that if storms or an MCS develops further
north in the favored portion of the ridge, Saturday eve could be
interesting. Definitely something to watch for potential mcs
development across the central us on Friday can ride the ridge
southeast and re-ignite during the day Saturday. Hail and wind
would certainly be a threat, but just don't have a lot of
confidence on coverage. Day 3 SPC outlook has the slight risk
coming into far NW ga which may have to expand a bit southward if
it looks like coverage could be higher further south.

Another significant vortex starts swinging south into the northern
great lakes Saturday into Sunday forcing the ridge southeast and
pushing a frontal boundary into ga during the day on Sunday. Models
in general agreement on the front working into north ga by late
Sunday into early Monday resulting in increase shower and
thunderstorm chances. Once again, cannot rule out severe chances
given 40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear and 7.0-7.5 deg c km mid level
lapse rates forecast for Sunday afternoon evening across the
state... Particularly north central. Will need to again see the
evolution of things on Saturday and the timing of the shortwave
that rotates through the broad trof digging over the great lakes
region.

Sfc boundary sags south and hangs up across the state on Monday also
presenting an unfortunate increase in storm chances on our memorial
day. Current parameters suggest there would be some severe chances
but too early to tell how it all plays out given the previous day
convection influence on the following day. Model consensus
running 50 to 60 pops on Monday ATTM and see now reason to
disagree.

Boundary sags south of the CWA on Tuesday and Wednesday giving the
region a shot of drier air and reprieve with a large trof taking
over the eastern half of the us. Would expect below normal temps a
good portion of next week.

30

Aviation
18z update...

vfr conditions observed across the region and we anticipate this
to continue through the TAF period. A deep upper level low will
pivot northeast exiting the region with subsidence helping to dry
out the atmospheric column through the remainder of the
afternoon. This will result in bkn CIGS eroding to skc by around
sunset. Gusty west winds will diminish this evening. Pleasant
flying conditions through Friday. Clear skies and westerly wind
with the occasional gust possible.

Atl confidence... 18z update...

high confidence on all elements.

26

Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 55 83 65 88 0 0 0 5
atlanta 58 83 66 87 0 0 0 5
blairsville 50 79 60 82 5 0 5 20
cartersville 54 84 64 86 0 0 0 10
columbus 57 86 64 89 0 0 0 5
gainesville 56 81 65 85 0 0 0 10
macon 55 85 63 90 0 0 0 0
rome 53 85 64 86 0 0 5 20
peachtree city 53 84 62 87 0 0 0 5
vidalia 59 85 66 92 0 0 0 0

Ffc watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... 26
long term... .31
aviation... 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi71 minWSW 14 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F50°F55%1007.5 hPa
Lawrenceville, Gwinnett County-Briscoe Field Airport, GA18 mi79 minW 18 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy70°F48°F46%1008.8 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA23 mi69 minW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast72°F48°F44%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12
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1 day agoS7SW7S5S4CalmS4--4CalmW3W4CalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE5S4----S7SW7
G17
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G25
2 days agoW5N6W3NW4CalmCalmS4CalmCalmN4NE3NE3CalmCalmE5SE5SE6S6SW4SW4SW10SW6SW6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.