Monday, March25, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakwood, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:51PM Monday March 25, 2019 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:49AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakwood, GA
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location: 34.24, -83.95     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 251934
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
334 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Tricky forecast for the start of the short term with if and how much
possible strong to severe convective development occurs late this
afternoon into evening with upper wave cold pool pushing in from the
west and if any sfc destabilization happens. Some rather dense cloud
coverage has limited warming instability across north ga for the
time being and even though a pocket of some clearing is advecting in
from the west, some stratocu is quickly filling in. That being
said... Hi-res models are consistent with scattered initiation
across al here in the next few hours that continue into north and
part of central ga and it wouldn't take much CAPE given the very low
freezing level and aforementioned cooling aloft steepening lapse
rates to generate thunderstorms capable of hail. Will be holding
steady on the forecast given these factors, and may just be a bit
delayed than previous thoughts.

Wedge front builds in Tuesday and has enough forcing and cam
agreement to warrant slight to low end chance pops for shower
development. Decent inversion aloft will keep things capped so not
including thunder mention. A secondary much weaker upper shortwave
looks to push across western and central ga late Tuesday into the
overnight so have held onto some slight shower chances

Cooler temps expected Tuesday in the upper 50s to low 60s for most
areas given wedge, and lows Tuesday night will be back in the low
40s to upper 30s.


Long term Wednesday through Monday
No significant weather impacts expected in the long term period.

Main concerns are timing of precip and chance of convection
associated with next system, currently progged for Sunday and

Pattern at start of period characterized by NW flow aloft over the
southeast CONUS with shortwave trough east of southeast u.S.

Atlantic coast. Wed and thurs will be great days to be outside, with
clear skies and warm daytime temps and cool morning temps. Could see
some areas of far northeast ga approach freezing temps tues and wed

By thurs large shortwave centered over hudson's bay with flow
extending well into oh tn valley, could see some clouds over north
ga in the westerlies. Flow becomes wswly aloft Friday with warming
and increasing high clouds. At this point, 12z models diverge
somewhat but in better agreement than prev cycles. GFS cmc faster
while ec slower, but all bring in precip Sat sun. Too far out to
indicate likelihood of convection or precip amounts with any
confidence. Did see that GFS has much more intense evolution of
second shortwave behind the weekend system which greatly modulates
precip amounts and pops. Have continued slt chc chc pops thru mon
based on lack of model consensus and large discrepancy of fcst
impacts (i.E. If you want to see heavy rain and the washing of
pollen, bet on the gfs).

Until then, with rainfall with today's system mainly expected over
north ga, drought conditions over middle ga will continue to expand.


Prev discussion issued 342 am edt Mon mar 25 2019
long term Tuesday night through Sunday ...

a secondary closed upper low behind the main trough could lead to
some wraparound cloud coverage and additional light showers and
graupel (the latter due to very cold temperatures in the core of the
system) on Tuesday. These conditions should be coming to an end by
Tuesday night as the extended period begins. Upper-level ridging
will then build in to the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday and an
associated surface high will simultaneously move east of the
appalachians. High pressure will then progressively build southward
from this high across the forecast area during the later half of the
work week. Clearing skies and dry conditions will be anticipated to
return on Wednesday and lead to gradual warming through the end of
the week. High temperatures mainly 5-10 degrees below climatological
normals on Wednesday gradually increasing to 4-8 degrees above
climatological normals by Saturday.

The next system approaches the area during the coming weekend as an
upper level longwave trough moves eastward from the great plains
towards the atlantic coast. At the surface, a low pressure system is
expected to drop a cold front into the the mississippi valley by
Saturday night. This front is expected to push southeastward towards
the forecast area Sunday as the low quickly retreats to the
northeast. Model guidance is trending towards better agreement, but
still remains somewhat inconsistent with the handling of this system
as the front approaches georgia. Latest GFS presents a faster, drier
solution with precipitation ahead of the front entering the area
late Saturday night and clearing the forecast area Sunday night,
while the latest ECMWF presents a slower, wetter solution with
precipitation entering Sunday morning and lingering until the front
clears Monday morning. Sufficient instability is possible across
central georgia during the daytime on Sunday to support thunderstorm
development, so included a slight chance of thunderstorms across the
southern portion of the forecast area at that time. Will continue to
monitor severe weather potential in ensuing forecasts for severe
potential as model guidance continues to come into better


18z update...

initialVFR conditions with mainly CIGS in 4-6 kft range. Upper
wave will increase shower and possible TS chances this afternoon
into evening so have tempo group around 19z to 23z (a bit later
for southern eastern sites). Should have some MVFR CIGS either
with precip or later tonight into Tuesday morning and also a
return of some more isolated showers with a wedge front building
in from the ne. Winds initially SW 8-10 kts (possible gusts for
atl) then NW tonight and NE after 15z Tuesday.

Atl confidence... 18z update...

low on precip coverage and TS chance this afternoon evening.

Medium on morning cigs.

High on all else.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 49 60 38 61 70 10 10 0
atlanta 50 60 41 62 70 30 20 0
blairsville 43 58 35 60 60 30 20 0
cartersville 47 59 41 63 60 30 20 0
columbus 51 65 44 65 60 30 20 0
gainesville 48 59 39 59 60 20 20 0
macon 51 64 41 64 70 30 20 0
rome 48 60 42 64 50 20 20 0
peachtree city 49 61 41 63 70 30 20 0
vidalia 55 67 42 64 60 20 20 0

Ffc watches warnings advisories

Short term... Baker
long term... .King snelson
aviation... Baker

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi57 minNW 37.00 miOvercast56°F55°F100%1013.9 hPa
Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field, GA18 mi54 minN 09.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain59°F57°F96%1014.8 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA23 mi75 minNNW 117.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain in Vicinity59°F55°F88%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS5S4S3S3S4S3S3S5S3SW4W3SW3S3CalmW3W4W7W6W8SW3NW5NW6NW7NW3
1 day agoW5SW3SE3S4W4CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmE4E3334SW9S7S8SW7
2 days agoW14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.