Thursday, March30, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Oakwood, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:26 PM EDT (00:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:22AMMoonset 10:00PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakwood, GA
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location: 34.24, -83.95     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 310011
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
811 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Prev discussion /issued 336 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017/

Short term /tonight through Friday night/
Progressive pattern will continue through the short-term as an omega
block remains anchored over western europe. Current water vapor loop
shows the center of a strong closed mid level low over southwest
missouri... With several shortwaves rotating about cyclonic flow to
the south of this main low. This system is being pushed east by
potent... Digging trough across the western us. Analysis of latest
sfc data reveals developing low pressure across eastern missouri and
associated cold front draped south through lower mississippi valley
into the western gulf. Warm front extends east and then southeast
across oh valley and into southern appalachians... Where it basically
marks the wedge front boundary from high pressure ridge extending
down eastern us from canada.

Radar mosaic beginning to finally light up to our west... While
activity continues to our east along and ahead of the wedge/warm
front. Large complex of thunderstorms across gulf coast has been
slow to move today... And is showing somewhat of a weakening trend.

Evolution of this activity into the evening hours introduces
forecast uncertainty... With many factors at play.

Spc mesoanalysis continues to portray dual jet dynamics across the
northern gulf where right entrance region of polar jet
/associated with main closed low/ and left exit region of
subtropical jet /associated with southern shortwave/ are helping to
aid the gulf coast complex. As this system continues to push east
into our area... Heights will continue to fall and broad scale ascent
will increase. Right now... Indications are for the dual jet to
weaken as closed low moves northeast and southern wave moves east.

This would act to weaken the storm complex over the gulf and not
completely shut off our moisture transport. However... There is the
potential for left exit region of subtropical jet to sustain the
complex into the fl panhandle and rob us some moisture.

However... As/if these processes occur... Main closed low will take on
a negative tilt... Which will enhance lift across a good majority of
ga... Regardless of gulf evolution. So... All in all... Evolution will
be a matter of which process is dominant.

With the above in mind... Storm development /supercellular in nature/
has already occurred across southern al out ahead of the gulf
complex. See no reason why these storms will not sustain themselves
through the daylight hours as adequate insolation has resulted in at
least 500-1000 j/kg mlcape. These storms will carry severe potential
should they move into western/sw georgia later this afternoon given
increasing shear amidst unstable airmass. Think eventually discrete
activity will evolve into a cluster of thunderstorms /given veer-
back-veer wind profiles/ and move across majority of the area
overnight tonight into very early Friday. Regardless of discrete or
line activity... .Potential will exist for severe activity through
much of the overnight hours... .Just hard to say where exactly
largest threat will reside. All threats will be possible:
wind... Hail... Tornadoes. Will also monitor line of storms along the
cold front currently in western tn valley... As this activity will
have strong lift to support it as it moves east tonight... Though
aforementioned activity make have a negative effect on it.

Should see rapid clearing of precip Friday with perhaps some cu
lingering in the wake of the cold front. Surface high pressure will
be building in from the north Friday so expecting a pleasant
day... Which will continue into the extended.


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/
Forecast looks on track with the next system arriving Monday.

Model difference in location of the low will ultimately impact
thunderstorm coverage and severity. However, it is safe to say we
will be receiving beneficial rains Monday into early Tuesday.

Models are weakening the system for mid-next week. Above normal
temperatures through the period.

Prev discussion... /issued 352 am edt Thu mar 30 2017/
warm and sunny weather returns just in time for the weekend with
upper ridging in control. Temperatures will be well above average
both Saturday and Sunday with highs by Sunday nearing 80 in north
georgia and well into the mid 80s in central georgia.

The tranquil weather comes to a quick end as the active pattern revs
back up. By late Sunday clouds will begin increasing ahead of the
next storm system with rain close behind. This next system will
follow a more southerly track than previous systems. The GFS brings
the surface low across southern tennessee into north carolina on
Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower and farther north with the
center of the low. Regardless, expect widespread rain and
thunderstorms to overspread the area on Monday. The potential for
strong thunderstorms as well as heavy rainfall will also be a
concern during the Monday time. As the upper low passes overhead or
just north of the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning, wraparound
rainfall can be expected into at least part of the day Tuesday.

Wednesday looks largely dry at this time, but the break in
storminess will again be brief as the progressive pattern continues.

The next storm system will already be knocking on the door of the
area, though there are model discrepancies with the timing.

Nonetheless, showers and thunderstorms will returning by the
Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe.


00z update...

initial showers/storms and some possible MVFR cig and vsby
lowering pushing north across TAF sites this evening. Have tempo
for tsra initially from about 01-05z and may need to extend later
if another area develops to the west of the current zone. Expect
MVFR CIGS hanging around through the morning though cannot rule
out a break between precip areas. Winds initial ssw 7-12 kts and
some gusts becoming more west for Friday at 10-15 kts gusting
20-22 kts. CIGS should have some lifting/scattering by 18z Friday.

//atl confidence... 00z update...

medium on tsra and cig trends overnight.

High on all else.


Preliminary point temps/pops
Athens 61 75 50 80 / 90 50 5 0
atlanta 60 73 50 76 / 90 20 5 0
blairsville 56 65 44 70 / 90 50 5 0
cartersville 58 71 47 74 / 90 10 5 0
columbus 62 77 53 82 / 90 30 5 0
gainesville 59 70 49 76 / 90 40 5 0
macon 63 78 51 81 / 80 60 5 0
rome 57 71 47 75 / 90 10 5 0
peachtree city 59 74 48 78 / 90 20 5 0
vidalia 64 82 55 83 / 60 70 5 0

Ffc watches/warnings/advisories

Short term... Kovacik
long term... .26
aviation... Baker

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi34 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F53°F48%1008.8 hPa
Lawrenceville, Gwinnett County-Briscoe Field Airport, GA18 mi42 minSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F53°F47%1009.8 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA23 mi3.5 hrsSSE 6 G 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F51°F35%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS4S3S5SE4SE4SE3SE5SE5E6E6E9E9E9E5E6E6SE4SE7E9
1 day agoW5SW5W3CalmW3CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE8SE5S5SW5NE4664W7SW7SW3
2 days agoSE3SE5SE4NW4W7W4NW6NW6S4W3CalmN4W6W7W7W8W9W9NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.