Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:18PM Thursday October 19, 2017 2:45 PM PDT (21:45 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 109 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 109 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 19z...or 12 pm pdt...a 1020 mb high was located 600 nm west of point conception and a 1008 mb thermal low was near las vegas. Gale force winds are likely across the outer water late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA
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location: 34.25, -119.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 192106
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
206 pm pdt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
An upper-level trough of low pressure will brush the area through
Friday night. Showers could develop over the mountains and along
the central coast tonight through Friday. Winds will increase
through Friday night as a weak cold front moves over the region,
then santa ana winds will likely develop between Saturday and
Sunday. A significant warming trend is expected for early next
week. Record heat is forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Short term (tdy-sun)
west-east onshore gradients continue to increase and we're
starting to see some gusty winds developing in the antelope
valley. At the same time a tight north south gradient continues
across the santa ynez range and although upper support isn't quite
as good as last night gradients are similar and we should expect
to see at least low end advisory level sundowner winds there again
tonight.

The remainder of the forecast is more or less unchanged. A rapidly
deepening marine layer up to around 4000' is expected tonight as
a dying cold front approaches. Some spotty drizzle is possible
late tonight and early Friday. The front itself will continue to
weaken but may squeeze out some light measurable amounts (trace
to a few hundredths) north of pt conception. Behind the front
Friday skies will clear pretty rapidly with a strong
west northwest push, likely generating advisory level winds in the
antelope valley and breezy conditions along the coastal areas.

More sundowner winds for the sb area Friday evening, likely a
little stronger and more widespread as winds start to shift to the
northeast. A cooler day with temps dropping an additional 2-5
degrees or so for coast valleys and 10-20 degrees for the mtns and
antelope valley.

Santa ana's return over the weekend, likely below advisory levels
for most areas but could see some brief advisory level gusts in
the mountains. A rapid climb in temps, especially coast valleys
with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

Long term (mon-thu)
offshore gradients will continue to strengthen early next week,
peaking Tuesday morning in the 5-7mb range (lax-dag). At the same
time a strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the west
coast with 597dm center over northern california. There's a little
better upper support than what we saw with the event earlier this
week so surface winds may be a touch stronger. This is also a
warmer air mass than what we saw before so with the downslope
winds we should easily see temps reaching 100 degrees across a
pretty wide area in la and ventura counties with the warmest day
being Tuesday. Expect plenty of high temperature records to fall
those two days. Though it's a little ways out yet confidence in
this event is high enough to go with an excessive heat watch for
the la ventura coast valleys and the southern santa barbara
county coast Mon tue.

Gradients and the ridge weaken Wednesday which will finally bring
some relief but temperatures will still be well above normal.

Aviation 19 1830z...

at 1115z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 2300 feet.

The top of the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 18
degrees celsius.

Moderate confidence in 18z tafs. There is a 30 percent chance of
no showers at terminals north of point conception. Patchy drizzle
is possible between 06z and 14z for coastal and valley terminals
south of ksba including klax. Low CIGS vsbys may be off by one
category with timing off by up to 3 hours. Moderate confidence in
timing, strength and direction of winds for kpmd and kwjf.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 18z taf. Patchy drizzle is possible
between 06z and 14z. Low CIGS vsbys may be off by one category
with timing off by up to 3 hours.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 18z taf. Patchy drizzle is possible
between 06z and 14z. Low CIGS vsbys may be off by one category
with timing off by up to 3 hours.

Marine 19 130 pm...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds or greater will continue through
Sunday and possibly into Monday. A gale warning has been issued
for late Friday afternoon through late Friday night. There is a 30
percent chance winds remain below gale criteria for the outer
waters north of point sal.

For the inner waters, moderate confidence current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, a gale warning has been issued for
late Friday afternoon through late Friday evening. There is a
30 percent chance winds remain below gale criteria. For the
waters south of point conception, SCA level winds are likely from
this afternoon through Friday night, strongest across western
sections of the southern inner waters.

A large storm off western canada has generated 40 foot seas in
that area. This has produced a large long-period NW swell, moving
into our waters by Friday. Seas up to 15 feet are likely, with 20
foot seas possible across the outer and northern waters. There
will likely be dangerous breaking waves on the central coast
through the weekend with dangerous conditions in near harbors.

South of point conception... The westerly swell will contribute to
continued hazardous conditions at the beaches through this weekend.

Beaches 19 1130 am...

central coast... A significant storm system in the gulf of alaska
has caused large swells to develop. These large northwest swells
will approach the central coast by Friday morning. A high surf
advisory has been issued valid for the central coast Friday
morning through Sunday morning. Surf will quickly rise to around
10 to 12 feet initially Friday mid morning. By Friday evening
through early Saturday, surf should increase to between 14 and 20
feet. Surf will then begin to lower through Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning, but remain above 10 feet. Some impacts from
these large and powerful waves and strong currents would be the
risk of ocean drowning. Also sneaker waves can suddenly overrun
previously dry beaches and jetties. With surf approaching 20 feet,
some low lying beach parking lots, harbor walkways and
campgrounds could see local coastal flooding during the peak of
the highest surf.

South of point conception... A fairly significant long period
south swell will continue to move across coastal waters through
this afternoon and evening, bringing elevated surf between 3 and 6
feet for south facing beaches. However, gusty west winds are
forecast to develop across the ventura coast and the short period
wind waves could pile up to the surf zone causing local sets to 7
feet this afternoon and evening. There is high confidence of
strong rip currents during this period. A beach hazards statement
remains in effect through this evening.

The large northwest swell forecast to bring very large surf to the
central coast should filter some of the energy into the southern
california bight allowing for higher surf potential by this
weekend. Confidence is high at least another beach hazards
statement will be needed or possibly a high surf advisory if surf
is expected to be higher. Will continue to monitor the situation.

Fire weather 19 1130 am.

Increasing onshore flow today will bring a cooling trend with higher
humidities to much of the region today. A weakening cold front will
move through the region bringing a slight chance of rain showers or
drizzle to many areas overnight into Friday morning. The main impact
will be increasing northwest winds with and behind the front which
will bring elevated fire danger to many areas on Friday. The strongest
winds tonight through Friday night will be focused across the mountains,
antelope valley, central coast, and santa barbara county south
coast where gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be common. Humidities
are not expected to be sufficiently low during this time to
warrant any red flag warnings.

Northerly flow on Saturday is expected to bring a warming and drying
trend to the region. The strongest winds will remain focused across
the santa barbara south coast and mountains as well as the interstate
5 corridor, where elevated fire danger will continue.

From Sunday through at least next Tuesday, there is the potential
for a prolonged duration of gusty santa ana winds with hot and very
dry conditions. While the models are currently showing weakening
upper level support, there will be a potential for weak to moderate
santa ana winds, triple digit heat, and humidities falling into the
single digits and teens. The strongest winds and highest temperatures
are expected Monday and Tuesday. This could bring a return of critical
fire weather conditions to portions of southwest california for early
next week.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 6 am Friday to noon pdt
Sunday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for zones
39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Excessive heat watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening for zones 39>41-44>46-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Sunday afternoon
for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Tuesday afternoon for zones 244>246-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning for zone 252. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Tuesday afternoon for zones 253-254. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Gale warning in effect from 3 pm to 9 pm pdt Friday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Friday for
zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm pdt Friday
for zone 670. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm Friday to 3 am pdt Saturday
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt Friday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
hot temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday into early next week as another santa ana wind
event develops. Record heat is possible for Monday and Tuesday.

High surf and strong rip currents will linger along central coast
beaches Sunday.

Public... Mw
aviation... Munroe
marine... Rm rat
beaches... Rm rat
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi46 min 66°F4 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 23 mi70 min SW 6 G 7 66°F 1011.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 29 mi36 min WSW 14 G 19 65°F 66°F1012.3 hPa60°F
46251 36 mi55 min 67°F5 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 37 mi36 min W 3.9 G 5.8 70°F1011.8 hPa
46262 41 mi46 min 70°F4 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 45 mi46 min 68°F4 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 46 mi46 min W 8 G 8.9 66°F 69°F1011.9 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA6 mi55 minW 1110.00 miFair67°F57°F73%1011.6 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA12 mi51 minWSW 1210.00 miFair with Haze74°F52°F46%1012.3 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA13 mi50 minWSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F54°F57%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W12W11W8W7CalmCalmNE3S3NE5E3CalmCalmE4NE4NE5NE5E4CalmCalm3W9W7W11
1 day agoW12W9W8CalmW3CalmCalmNE5SW3N4CalmE3E4CalmSW4NE4NE3CalmE5SW3SW3SW8W15W12
2 days agoW12W10W11W11W4CalmW3W3NW6NW4N4W3NW3CalmNW4N4NW6NW3E73W7W13W8W13

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
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Thu -- 03:34 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:39 AM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:13 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:13 PM PDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.50.90.81.42.53.74.95.65.85.24.22.91.60.60.20.41.12.33.44.44.84.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:31 AM PDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:40 AM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:10 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:14 PM PDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.41.40.80.81.42.53.84.95.65.85.24.22.91.60.60.20.41.22.33.54.44.84.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.