Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday October 18, 2018 11:38 AM PDT (18:38 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 830 Am Pdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 1 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 2 to 3 ft.
PZZ600 830 Am Pdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt, a 1024 mb high was located around 400 nm W of san francisco. A weak trough of low pressure was along the california coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA
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location: 34.25, -119.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 181829
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1129 am pdt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis 18 812 am.

An offshore flow regime will bring above normal temperatures and
continued dry conditions through the rest of the week. Stronger
offshore winds are possible Friday and Saturday. A cooling trend
is expected early next week as low pressure system moves over the
region.

Short term (tdy-sat) 18 941 am.

Light offshore flow continues this morning with low humidities.

Winds are on the light side today, mostly under 20 mph, and temps
should be near to slightly above yesterday's highs. Increasing
offshore flow still expected tonight and Friday and then
continuing into Saturday. Models have increased expected gradients
tomorrow but Saturday's are still the same so both days now have
similar gradients but the strongest winds aloft are Friday and
that's when most areas should see the strongest winds with this
event. It's still a very marginal advisory case given the expected
gradients and lack of any cold air advection so will likely hold
off issuing one until at least tonight as confidence not real high
that we'll see widespread advisory level winds. Temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer as well in most areas due to the lack of
cold air advection so highs around 90 expected in the warmer
valleys and inland coastal plain.

***from previous discussion***
while warm and breezy to windy conditions will develop on Friday,
it is still uncertain how much moisture will slip in from the
east between Friday and Sunday as the trough recenters offshore.

Model solutions shows a marginal amount of moisture slipping into
eastern los angeles county, but the timing and amounts vary.

Convective parameters tip toward adding at least chance pops with
near zero lifted index values and k-index values near 35, but
model soundings show a capping inversion. With differences in
timing, and amount of moisture and instability, pops have been
nudged up just below mentionable thresholds. There is certainly a
non-zero chance of showers and thunderstorms between Friday
afternoon and Sunday morning. Sky coverage has been increased as
well to mention partly cloudy skies for now.

Long term (sun-wed) 18 338 am.

The trough will linger into early next week over the area, while
slowly drifting east into Tuesday. Some cooling is possible as at
weak onshore flow should develop across the area, but most areas
will remain above seasonal normals for this time of year.

Ridging aloft developing over the eastern pacific ocean will
build in for middle-to-late week. A warming trend looks on tap
and was tweaked slightly to introduce a bit more warming for the
central coast. The air mass should not get too warm as the ridging
aloft is rather flat.

Aviation 18 1829z.

At 1619z at klax, there was no marine inversion.

High confidence in the current 18z TAF forecast, except moderate
confidence with possible lifr conditions at ksmx and ksbp late
tonight. For tonight, the decision was made to keep all TAF sites
clear with increasing offshore flow. However, there is still a 40
percent chance of lifr conditions later tonight at ksbp and ksmx
klax... High confidence inVFR conditions through the period.

Kbur... High confidence inVFR conditions through the period.

Marine 18 849 am.

Outer waters... High confidence that winds will remain below small
craft advisory (sca) level winds through this weekend. There is a
30% chance that a SCA will be needed for pz676 Friday morning for
offshore winds through early afternoon hours. Mainly the eastern
portion. There will be areas of fog with visibilities less than
one nautical mile at times across coastal waters adjacent to the
central coast through this morning. There is a good chance similar
visibility issues could occur again late this evening into Friday
morning as well.

Inner waters... N of point conception from point sal to point
piedras blancas, winds should remain under SCA levels through this
weekend. For areas S of point conception... Overall winds should
remain below SCA levels through this weekend, except there will
be a 40% chance for a SCA Friday morning through early afternoon
from pt. Mugu to malibu and less likely across the san pedro
channel. There will be a 20% chance that a SCA will continue into
the afternoon and Friday evening between pt. Mugu to malibu.

Fire weather 18 907 am.

The previous fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag
warning, but the timing has been trimmed to only include Friday
and not Saturday.

Offshore winds will increase on Friday then slowly weaken
Saturday and Sunday. These winds will not be nearly as strong as
what occurred earlier this week, but gusts between 30 and 45 mph
are expected over los angeles and ventura counties during the
Friday peak. The moderately dry conditions currently occurring
will change little through Friday, with minimum humidities
generally between 10 and 15 percent at lower elevations.

Humidities will then increase Saturday and Sunday. As a result,
along with little to no improvement in fuel conditions leading up
to Friday, a marginal red flag warning will be issued for much of
los angeles and ventura counties for Friday, with elevated but
below critical conditions on Saturday. While this event will not
be nearly as severe as what occurred on Monday and Tuesday, it is
still a serious situation.

There will be locally gusty easterly winds (gusts of 20 to 30
mph) and dry conditions (8 to 18 percent humidities) over santa
barbara and san luis obispo counties as well, but the winds will
be weaker than their neighbors to the south. Elevated fire
conditions will persist there, but conditions should stay below
red flag thresholds.

This is a dangerous situation. The public needs to use extreme
caution with any potential fire ignition sources. Large fires
have been started by things like discarded cigarettes, campfires,
welding equipment, metallic weed wackers, and dragging trailer
chains.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Red flag warning in effect from 3 am to 10 pm pdt Friday for
zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw hall
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
fire... Kittell
synopsis... B
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 9 mi47 min 65°F3 ft
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 23 mi62 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 65°F 1019.1 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 29 mi28 min W 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 66°F1019 hPa65°F
46251 36 mi68 min 67°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 37 mi28 min W 3.9 G 3.9 68°F 68°F1018.3 hPa62°F
46262 41 mi38 min 69°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 45 mi38 min 65°F3 ft
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 46 mi38 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 66°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA6 mi47 minWNW 910.00 miFair72°F57°F59%1018.2 hPa
Camarillo, Camarillo Airport, CA12 mi43 minWNW 710.00 miFair82°F36°F19%1018.8 hPa
Point Mugu, Naval Air Warfare Center, CA13 mi41 minW 610.00 miFair81°F37°F21%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from OXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W8W9W10W9W9W11W8W7CalmNE3N3N3CalmCalmN5CalmE4NE5NE6NE8NE8N5W9
1 day ago--W12W15W17W15W13W13W11W8E5--CalmCalmNE4E4CalmNW4N5N4N5NE4NE4NE3SW3
2 days agoE20
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W10NW13W10W9W10W5CalmNE3CalmE3NE4NE7NE4NE7NE8NE7NE8N9NE7E9

Tide / Current Tables for Ventura, California
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Ventura
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:05 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM PDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:54 PM PDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:16 PM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.81.21.82.63.33.94.24.23.93.53.12.82.72.83.23.74.14.44.33.93.22.41.6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Hueneme, California
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Port Hueneme
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:30 AM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:26 AM PDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:51 PM PDT     2.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:17 PM PDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.81.21.82.63.33.94.24.23.93.53.12.82.72.83.23.74.14.44.33.93.22.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.