Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:48 PM EDT (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1249 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft... Then 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft... Then 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1249 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A stalling cold front may bring a few showers early Friday. A stronger frontal system will bring rain and rougher seas early next week. Otherwise an early summer pattern will prevail with bermuda high pressure anchored offshore.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 271724
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
124 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will bring a warming and drying trend
late this week through the weekend. A weakening cold front will
bring a few showers or a thunderstorm tonight inland and early
Friday at the coast. A stronger frontal system will bring a chance
of rain late Monday and early Tuesday. Another storm system may
impact the region with a soaking rain next Thursday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 120 pm Thursday... Robust southwest flow and the approach
of a weakening cold front into the i-95 corridor this evening is
on tap. Present timing brings a few showers or an isolated tstm
9-10 pm this evening into our deep interior. Continued diurnal
cooling however and waning low- level convergence due to veering
winds to SW overnight will likely kill the convective intensity
after midnight, possibly full dissipation. Current pops look
representative for tonight and no significant changes planned.

The previous forecaster discussion below.

As of 330 am Thursday... Moderately strong warm advection will
push afternoon high temperatures a solid category above
climatology. Most areas away from the immediate marine influence
will heat up into the mid 80s. Moisture too will be on the rise
in the warm advection zone though most of it may remain just to
our west. There are considerable differences regarding not only
the eastern progress of the moisture but also the sense of
timing. The 00z ec supports the far less agressive WRF but did
raise pops a bit in deference to the much wetter GFS as well as
to match with neighboring wfos. Any storms that do make some
progress into western zones this evening will then fizzle out as
they both encounter the ridging offshore and also lose daytime
heating. Again the GFS maintains action through the night mainly
along the coast with a tongue of warm advection and a bit of a
low level jet. Will carry 20 pops to cover for this possibility.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/
As of 330 am Wednesday... Models now consistent with stalling the
approaching cold front just west and north of the fa early
Friday. Weak dynamics and avbl instability, models indicating 2k
to 3+k cape, will all combine to carry widely scattered showers
or thunderstorms across portions of the fa. Convection will
also occur along the pinned sea breeze boundary by Fri midday
thru the aftn. Fri highs will see widespread 80s with a few 90
degree readings possible inland from the coast.

For Fri night thru Sunday morning, ridging both aloft and at the
sfc will be the primary drivers for sensible wx conditions
across the fa. The building heights 590+ dam and subsidence
overhead will help keep convection to a minimal, if any at all.

The sea breeze will be active in terms of CU development along
it, however any vertical growth of the CU will be suppressed.

Sat highs will see widespread 80s again. With southerly flow in
the lower levels during Sat thru Sat night, the marine
influence will push further inland, also aided by the sea
breeze, and keep 90+ degree readings well inland, ie. Along or
west of the i-95 corridor. Summertime readings for min temps can
be expected with mid to upper 60s to around 70 at the coast
where latest ssts are in the 70s now.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Surface and mid level high pressure
just off the east coast will maintain deep southerly flow on
Sunday. However, subsidence on the periphery of the ridge aloft
should keep diurnal convection to a minimum. Cannot rule out an
isolated sea breeze shower but any activity would be short lived
and very isolated. Temperatures will be above to well above
normal.

Surface and mid level ridge start to weaken and drift east mon,
allowing a cold front into the region. Front moves across the area
mon night, likely accompanied by some convection. Although the
parent low will be over the great lakes (along with the bulk of the
dynamics) there are still at least a few signals pointing to some
potential for strong/severe storms ahead of the front. Strong low
level jet will be in place along with modest divergence aloft and
potential for PVA as shortwaves rotate around the base of the
trough. Confidence is low at this point as timing and instability
remain in question but is something to keep an eye on.

Front moves off the coast early Tue with high pressure building in
from the west during the day then shifting overhead Tue night before
moving offshore wed. Flow aloft will remain west to southwest tue
and Wed as dry air and subsidence help dry the region out with
temperatures running near climo.

Aviation /1720z Thursday through Monday/
As of 18z... MainlyVFR conditions through this afternoon. A
weak cold front will make it's closest approach from the west
tonight and early Fri before washing out altogether during
Friday near the coast. MVFR conditions possible this evening
thru the overnight period. Will indicate vcts or vcsh during
that time span. Ceilings may lower to MVFR or isolated ifr.

Winds will start out ssw 5 to 10 kt and increase to S 10 to 15
kt with g20 kt this afternoon and evening. The higher gusts will
occur across the coastal terminals due to an active sea breeze.

Thursday 12z-18z vcsh mainly near the coast with sct-bkn040
inland and MVFR CIGS close to the coast.

Extended outlook...VFR through Sunday. Periods of ifr/MVFR in
convection late Monday into early Tuesday.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 120 pm Thursday... Se waves 2-3 feet every 8-9 seconds and
ssw waves 1-2 feet every 4-5 seconds will comprise the wave
spectrum. No showers or tstms expected, until pre-dawn Thursday
when a few marine showers are possible. No significant changes
to the forecast, do expect gusts to 20 kt, possibly a bit higher
this afternoon inshore as a vigorous sea breeze forms.

As of 330 am Thursday... Light SW winds will be increasing in
speed today as a healthy cold front and upper wave approach from
the west. The upper system will be shunted to our north however
and the surface boundary will stall well west of the area. This
likely spares the region from needing an advisory though late
in the period there could be a few 25kt gusts as low level
jetting remains along the coast to promote mixing.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...

as of 330 am Thursday... Sfc high pressure, ie. Bermuda high,
centered well offshore and ese of the carolinas, will be the
primary driver for winds and seas across the area waters. The
sfc ridge axis extending west from the high's center will extend
westward and onshore in the vicinity of CAPE romain thruout
this period. This will result in southerly winds across the
local waters, except ssw-sw from CAPE fear northward due to the
ridging placement. Windspeeds will run 10 to 15 kt with gusts to
20 to 25 kt possible especially the nearshore waters during the
evolution and any inland progression of the sea breeze.

Significant seas will run 2 to 4 ft thruout, except up to 5 ft
early fri. Dominant direction will be from the SE early Friday
and more southerly late Fri thru Saturday night. Dominant
periods Fri will run 6 to 8 seconds then drop to 4 to 7 seconds
fri night thru Sat night due to wind driven waves becoming the
main force.

Long term /Sunday through Monday/...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Bermuda high will maintain southwest
flow through much of the period. Speeds 10 to 15 kt Sun will
increase late Sun as gradient becomes more defined. Cold front
approaches from the west as the surface high shifts east. Speeds
increase to 15 to 20 kt Sun night and peak at 20 to 25 kt mon
with low level jet approaching 40 kt. Seas around 3 ft Sat into
sun will start building Sun night, approaching 8 ft on mon.

Headlines may be required as early as Sun evening.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm to 10 pm edt this evening for
scz054-056.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 8 pm to 10 pm edt this evening for
ncz106-108-110.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to 1 am edt
Friday for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Near term... Mjc
short term... Dch
long term... Iii
aviation... Mjc
marine... mbb/dch/iii/8


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi49 min S 16 G 19 72°F 73°F1012.2 hPa (-1.5)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi140 min 71°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi41 min S 9.7 G 16 72°F 71°F1013.4 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 11 mi64 min SSW 5.1 78°F 1014 hPa70°F
WLON7 12 mi49 min 79°F 72°F1012.7 hPa (-1.6)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi41 min S 9.7 G 12 73°F 73°F1014 hPa
41108 42 mi122 min 72°F3 ft
41159 43 mi126 min 72°F4 ft
41064 43 mi41 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 73°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi56 minSSW 13 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds82°F60°F47%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW13
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S10SW9S6S7S9S10SW8SW7SW5S3S3CalmS4S5SW11SW15W9SW9S15
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1 day agoW9SW17W13W14W14W15W7W7W8W8W7W6W6W7W8W8SW4W5W4W7W6W5W9W9
G15
2 days agoE83S8
G19
E5CalmCalmCalmS3S6CalmE4SW7CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3S4SW12W8SW7W10W11W9

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:47 PM EDT     -1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     5.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.2-0.1-0.8-1-0.40.72.13.34.14.13.52.41.1-0.1-0.8-1-0.50.62.13.64.75.14.83.8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:38 AM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:57 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:24 PM EDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.90.1-0.4-0.50.112.133.33.12.51.70.8-0-0.5-0.501.12.43.64.24.13.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.