Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:05PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:54 AM EST (13:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 252 Am Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..SW winds 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt or less. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt or less, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft, then 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
AMZ200 252 Am Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A wave of low pressure will develop along cold front as it crosses the waters today. High pressure will move over the waters through the weekend shifting east and further off shore through early next week. A cold front will move across the waters late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 151129
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
629 am est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Seasonable and fair weather will continue through the weekend,
with a dry cold frontal passage expected late today followed by
high pressure. Southerly winds and a warming trend will begin
Sunday and last through Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front,
with a chance of rain Monday and Tuesday. A cooler and drier air
mass will overspread the area mid-week in wake of the cold
front. Another cold front will approach the coast next Friday,
potentially creating a wet start to next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Friday... Area of low pressure was developing along
weak cold front draped from west to east across the local
forecast area early this morning. This low will deepen slightly
over the CAPE fear coast this morning before lifting off to the
ne into the waters off the DELMARVA coast by this evening. Winds
will be variable at times with a more northerly flow to the
north side of front and SW to the south. Overall light to calm
winds this morning will pick up out of the west on the back end
of the wave of low pressure through today. Deep mid to upper
trough extending down from the great lakes connects back to
cutoff low over baja california. Westerly flow aloft will stream
this associated mid to upper level moisture across the
southeast through today. Sounding data and moisture profiles
show decent layer of moisture at times between 15k and 25k and
therefore expect periods of mid to high clouds to continue to
stream across the area through today. Otherwise not expecting
any pcp from the weak system.

As low lifts off to the northeast, the cold front will push
south and east as high pressure builds in behind it late today
through tonight. The mid to upper trough should also push far
enough south to displace most of the higher clouds away from the
local forecast area. Overall expect sunshine to be filtered out
by mid to high clouds through today with deep westerly
downslope flow. A cool start to the morning will be followed by
a nice warmup with temps reaching near or above 60 degrees. By
tonight skies will clear with some drier and cooler air moving
in behind front. Expect temps to drop down to the low to mid
30s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 300 am Friday... Longwave upper pattern not yet established
during this period. Split jet stream with the northern branch
retreating back northward with time and the southern branch
extending northward. During this same time period, an upper ridge
will amplify and begin to affect the local fa by Sunday with the
upper ridge axis extending from the bahamas north to eastern nc by
the end of this period. At the sfc, center of high pressure will
park itself across the ilm CWA and adjacent waters Sat thru early
Sunday then drift east and offshore by Sunday night. With subsidence
overhead, clouds will basically be non-existent other than thin
jetstream cirrus Sat thru early Sun morning. With the expanding
south to north upper ridge axis across to just east of the fa by the
end of this period, additional clouds will basically begin to
override the ridge axis. Looking at mainly opaque high level clouds
early Sunday and eventually mid-level clouds by Sunday night.

Looking at low clouds expanding across the fa as illustrated by
various model rh time height displays for locations across the fa.

Have delayed the arrival of stratiform light rain to the pre-dawn
Monday hrs. As for temps, at or a category below normal temps for
sat. Decent rad cooling conditions Sat night early Sun will drop
lows to around the freezing mark with upper 30s to around 40 for the
immediate coast. Looking at a nice warm-up Sunday with return flow
from the high sliding off the carolina coasts. Highs will be a good
5 to 10 degrees milder than Sat progged highs with weak waa
occurring. Sun night will see clouds and threat of pcpn keep lows
elevated, running a good 10 degrees above the norms.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Primary caption this period, 'milder
with rain chances early next week'. Highly amplified troughing
trend in the baja and SW desert will cause expansion northward
of the the bahamian fl upper ridge. Concurrently, surface high
pressure centered offshore of the carolinas, will help to
complete the noteworthy warm-up, circulating milder air in
southerly flow. Robust moisture advection will ensue as lower
tropospheric winds tap gulf air. Two time periods encapsulated
by this moisture in deep column lift occur Monday, and again
late Tuesday. Monday a jet-streak entrance region appears
aligned to provide support aloft, with frontal convergence
coming into play Tuesday. The period Monday and Tuesday offer
rain chances, although a high uncertainty prevails on how much.

Drying cooling Wednesday in wake of the front, but return flow
quick on the heels, by Thu night ahead of another approaching
cold front.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z...VFR through the TAF period. A deep westerly flow
will continue to stream mid to high clouds across the area
through today. Surface winds will increase from the sw-w around
10 kts by mid-late morning and persist through the afternoon.

Winds will veer to the wnw as a weak front drops south through
the terminals late this afternoon and early evening. Gigs could
drop as low as 14k around this time. As the front moves farther
south and high pressure builds in, winds will become light
north AOB 3 kt with mid clouds decreasing.

Extended outlook...VFR. Possible MVFR Monday associated with a
low pressure system moving across the southeast.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Friday... Generally quiet marine conditions early
this morning will rebound later today. Low pressure will deepen
as it moves off to the northeast dragging front south and east
of forecast area. Light SW to W winds less than 10 kts will
increase up to 15 to 20 kts briefly as they veer around to the
w to NW this afternoon into early evening as front pushes
south and east. Seas 2 to 4 ft will jump up to 3 to 5 ft for a
brief period toward evening before dropping back down after
midnight as winds shift north and begin to diminish.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 300 am Friday... Marine conditions will be good for
boaters venturing into the local atlantic waters. It will be on
the cool side with temps limited by local ssts in the 50s.

Center of high pressure will be overhead Sat then sliding slowly
east to the offshore waters by Sun night. Variable winds less
than 10 kt will occur during Sat followed by return flow around
the departing high providing SE to S 10 kt Sun and ssw 10 to 15
kt Sun night. Light rain chances will increase to low chance
late Sun night. Significant seas will subside to less than 2 ft
during Sat as input from locally produced wind waves decreases.

This will leave a dominating 1 to 1.5 foot easterly ground swell
at 10 second periods Sat night thru Sunday. Wind waves will
increase Sun night but the small ground swell will remain
dominant.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Marine conditions will gradually worsen
into early next week, as a cold front approaches, then crosses
the coast late Tuesday night or early on Wednesday. Small craft
conditions appear to be approached sometime on Tuesday, by
evening, in blustery SW wind of 20 kt and gusty, and 5 foot seas
offshore. Conditions inshore will not be as bad, due to cooler
waters. Rain showers may reduce visibilities at times Monday
through Tuesday night.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rgz
short term... Dch
long term... Mjc
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi54 min Calm G 1.9 44°F 56°F1015.3 hPa (+0.0)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi55 min 56°F2 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi46 min SW 1.9 G 5.8 53°F 56°F1015 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 11 mi129 min NNW 1 42°F 1015 hPa40°F
WLON7 12 mi54 min 39°F 51°F1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi46 min SW 5.8 G 12 58°F 64°F1015.4 hPa
41108 42 mi54 min 57°F3 ft
41159 43 mi54 min 65°F3 ft
41064 43 mi46 min SW 7.8 G 14 59°F 65°F1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi61 minN 07.00 miFair37°F36°F96%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12W11W9W8W8W6W9W8CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4CalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW11NW12W13
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NW11W9W9W7SW5S3S4S5S4SW5SW6SW6SW9SW11SW12SW10SW9SW7SW9W9
2 days agoSW10SW7SW11SW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:30 AM EST     4.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     3.35 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:33 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.81.82.83.64.14.13.62.61.50.60-0.10.311.82.63.23.332.21.20.4-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:37 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:42 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:51 PM EST     2.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.31.122.83.33.332.51.81.10.50.20.20.51.21.92.42.52.41.91.30.70.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.