Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:35PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 8:17 PM EDT (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 4:03AMMoonset 4:43PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 335 Pm Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
AMZ200 335 Pm Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build over the region through Wednesday. The high will become elongated, extending southwest over the western carolinas during the middle of the week before consolidating over the tennessee valley Thursday. The high shifts northeast late in the week, moving over new england Saturday and off the new england coast Sunday while continuing to spread down the east coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 172226
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
624 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure building into the mid-atlantic states
today will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the
carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as
the high moves off the coast.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Surface high north-northwest of the
region will maintain dry and cool conditions through the period.

In the mid- levels a 5h trough will move off the coast this
evening with a weak shortwave ridge trying to build north. Cloud
cover along the coast this afternoon, a result of increased
moisture above 400mb, will gradually shift offshore this evening
leaving clear skies overnight. Deep northerly flow aloft will
contribute to an abundance of dry air, as will subsidence behind
the exiting 5h trough and along the top of the marginal 5h
ridge. Low level dry air and boundary layer winds around 15kt
should keep surface mixed enough to prevent any fog development.

Mixing will also limit the effectiveness of radiational
cooling, although overnight lows will end up around 5 degrees
below climo. Inland cold spots will be right around 40 with
locations along the coast near 50. Slight increase in thickness
wed (both low level and 1000-500mb)as the air mass starts to
modify, mainly due to sunny to mostly sunny skies, will result
in highs topping out right around climo. Low level convergence
off the coast may lead to some marine clouds and showers but do
not see much cloud moving onshore, let alone any precipitation.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure becomes elongated from the
southern appalachians northeast into the atlantic waters wed
eve. This will allow for a greater on shore component to the low
level winds which should give a push to some of the maritime moisture
from the coastal waters associated with a bit of shortwave
energy riding by. This enhanced low level moisture should move
down from the NE Wed eve brushing the coast. Moisture profiles
show a very dry column above 5k ft but a decent shallow layer
below with mainly some strato CU clouds expected overnight wed
into early thurs.

By thurs aftn, the high pressure becomes centered over the
southern appalachians allowing for a deeper northerly flow,
cutting off the atlantic moisture and providing a reinforcing
push of dry air. Another minor shortwave passes by thurs aftn
but the column remains too dry to produce anything more than a
few clouds. Pcp water up near an inch along the coast Wed night
will be down to a half inch by thurs aftn. Inland remains near a
half inch through the period. Overall, aside from some passing
clouds, expect dry and seasonable weather through the period.

Better radiational cooling thurs night with lighter winds and
mainly clear skies expected but basically a gradual warming
trend should keep overnight temps roughly the same both
nights... Within a few degrees on either side of 50. The high
temp on thurs should be nearing 80 most places.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... It will remain high and dry into Sunday
as high pressure remains in control of area weather. An
approaching cold front and return flow around the high will
bring increasing clouds Sunday and Sunday night with a small
chance of showers. Chances for showers will continue Monday and
Tuesday as the front moves into and through the area. Max
temperatures Friday through Monday will be in the upper 70s to
around 80 and in the mid 70s Tuesday. Minimums will moderate
from the low to mid 50s Friday morning to the low to mid 60s
Monday and Tuesday morning.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Monday
As of 00z... High confidence forVFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds should stay above 3 kts through the night. Moisture
profiles do not support fog. Wednesday, nearly clear skies with
continued northeast flow, albeit not as strong as today.

Extended outlook... Possible MVFR CIGS thurs am. Possible
showers on Monday. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Northeast flow of 20 to 25 kt this
afternoon will decrease to around 20 kt this evening and
overnight as cold surge relaxes and gradient weakens slightly.

Although northeast winds will drop below 25 kt by evening, seas
will stay above 6 ft well into wed, a result of a prolonged
period of strong northeast flow. The exception will be in amz254
where the bulk of the north- northeast winds swell have been
sheltered by land. Based on latest guidance the inherited sca
end time of 9 pm edt seems reasonable. It also seems likely that
the SCA will be replaced by a scec for the overnight period.

Seas will be under 6 ft but 4 to 5 ft with wave periods 5 sec or
less seem likely within the zone. It is also possible that the
end time of the SCA may need to be extended beyond 6 pm edt wed.

However have low confidence in this for now and do not plan any
adjustments to the headlines.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... High pressure will be more elongated from
sw to NE north of the area which will produce a slightly more
easterly component to the wind through Wed night. This NE push
of winds up to 20 kts will continue to produce seas up near or
slightly above SCA thresholds, near 6 ft, through Wed evening.

Wna model shows a decrease in seas to below SCA criteria after
midnight as gradient relaxes slowly into thurs. Also, the winds
will become more northerly in direction through thurs which
should help keep strongest winds off shore. Seas 4 to 6 ft
initially will be down to 3 to 5 ft by thurs aftn and 2 to 4 ft
by thurs night.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Northeast winds of 10 to 15 kt Friday will
gradually become easterly by Sunday morning then southeast by Sunday
night. Seas of 2 to 4 ft Friday will diminish to 2 to 3 ft Saturday
then increase to 3 to 5 ft by Sunday evening.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Astronomical tides are increasing as we
approach a new moon. This coupled with strong NE winds, may
breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at wrightsville beach
beginning today, and advisories may be needed along portions of
the coast the next several days. The same will be true of the
lower CAPE fear including the downtown wilmington area.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for amz250-252-
256.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for amz254.

Near term... Iii
short term... Rgz
long term... Ran
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi47 min NNE 15 G 17 63°F 76°F1023.9 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi69 min NE 16 G 25 64°F 75°F1024.5 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi78 min 75°F4 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 11 mi92 min NE 7 62°F 1025 hPa49°F
WLON7 12 mi47 min 59°F 75°F1024.7 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi69 min ENE 18 G 25 65°F 77°F1023.8 hPa
41108 42 mi77 min 76°F4 ft
41064 43 mi69 min NE 19 G 25 64°F 1024 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi24 minENE 310.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN15N12N12
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NE12N12NE10NE7NE4E3
1 day agoCalmSE3S3CalmCalmS3S3NW3NW3CalmCalmW5W7W7W7W9NW13NW13NW22
G28
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2 days agoNW3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW55SE5SW7SW4S6SE4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:02 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:25 AM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:47 PM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.30.51.62.73.64.24.13.52.31.10-0.5-0.50.112.13.244.13.72.71.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:00 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.41.22.133.53.53.22.61.810.50.20.20.81.82.73.43.63.42.82.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.