Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Porters Neck, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:51PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 8:48 PM EDT (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 7:37PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 613 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt early...then 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Thu night..W winds 10 kt...becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 613 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters tonight and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters late Wednesday into Thursday then move offshore Thursday night. Canadian high pressure will follow Friday and Saturday. A coastal low may pass offshore of the carolina coast Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Porters Neck, NC
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location: 34.29, -77.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222340
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
740 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
Warm and humid weather will prevail through mid week. An
approaching cold front will bring increasing storms over the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. Canadian high pressure will
bring an early fall feel Friday and into the weekend. Breezy
conditions may develop late Sunday into Monday, as a possible
tropical low passes offshore and interacts with the canadian
high.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 730 pm Tuesday... Weak high surface high pressure off the
coast will begin to retreat tonight as the pressure trough
surrounding a cold front over the ohio valley approaches from
the northwest. Pressures should fall by about 3 millibars along
the coast tonight in advance of this feature. Diurnal
thunderstorms are diminishing now that the Sun is setting and
the boundary layer is stabilizing. Short-range high res models
(hrrr and nam) show no precip potential for the next 8-9 hours.

What may develop some showers or t-storms late tonight or
Wednesday morning is the landbreeze. In the same way the
seabreeze develops due to air temperature density differences,
cooler air inland will surge offshore late tonight creating a
boundary that can initiate convection and precip. The hrrr is
focused on the 6-8 am timeframe along the beaches and just
offshore. With the steering flow aloft I imagine the bulk of any
activity will develop and remain offshore.

No significant changes have been made to overnight low
temperature forecasts, still mid to upper 70s for most
locations.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Tuesday... Cold front entering western zones in
addition to some height falls and weak vorticity centers ahead
of the main belt of westerlies buckling into deep troughiness
north of new england states. With several factors leading to
lift thunderstorms will not exhibit their normal diurnal
decrease, or at least display a much lessened one. Wind fields
look weak enough to preclude a severe weather threat. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain pretty high early Thursday
night, highest along the coast. Then some dry air pushes in
rather strongly from NW to SE during the latter portion of the
overnight hours.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Tuesday... The mid level pattern will initially
feature a decent trough for late august. The flow will quickly
transition to a more zonal configuration by the end of the
weekend. At the surface a cold will push into the bahamas by
early Saturday with high pressure building down into the
carolinas. Friday and Saturday should be cooler and mostly dry
although the easterly flow may keeps some low clouds and perhaps
a light shower or two offshore around.

The forecast gets interesting later in the period when the global
guidance spins up what could be a tropical system along the residual
front and moves it up off the southeast coast. The guidance has been
showing this for a few cycles but the disclaimer of its pretty far
out in time still holds. I did keep a partly to mostly cloudy
forecast intact with some pops increasing especially along the
coast. Temperatures will be on the cool side especially for highs
more near normal for overnight lows.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 00z... A cold front approaching the area from the northwest
is still west of the appalachians and won't directly affect our
area until Wednesday night at the earliest. Today's afternoon
thunderstorms are falling apart now that the Sun is setting and
we're expecting the next 8-9 hours to be quiet with only mid-
level altocumulus and perhaps a little low cumulus near the
coast.

A landbreeze should develop an hour or two before sunrise. This
boundary will develop scattered showers and maybe an offshore
thunderstorm. These will probably just far enough east to not
have significant effects on the coastal airports (ilm, cre, myr)
however they may approach within the vicinity (5-10 miles).

Where surface wind speeds are lightest inland, MVFR visibilities
are possible at flo and lbt.

Scattered showers and t-storms should pop up during the heat of
the day Wednesday. The best potential should be near the coast
during the late morning and early afternoon, shifting farther
inland during the mid to late afternoon with the seabreeze.

Extended outlook... Showers and t-storms Wednesday night and
Thursday associated with a cold front could produce localized
ifr conditions. Most showers and storms will push offshore
Thursday night into Friday. MVFR ceilings could linger,
especially near the coast Friday.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 730 pm Tuesday... Falling pressures across interior north
carolina and virginia tonight ahead of an approaching cold front
should keep wind speeds up in the 10-15 kt range most of the
night. Seas already 2.5 to 3.5 feet could build by another 0.5
to 1 foot by late tonight in a choppy short-period wind wave.

Shower activity is currently absent from the coastal waters,
however a landbreeze pushing off the coast between 4-6 am should
help develop a line of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
around sunrise.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Prefrontal flow regime Wednesday night
will have a few knots of wind speed knocked off as cold front
and its associated pressure trough approaches. The front will
move quite slowly and so most of Thursday will feature very
gradually veering winds, through FROPA itself will still likely
lead to a quicker turn to ne. With the front nearly stalling not
far to our south the NE winds will not pick up significantly.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 300 pm Tuesday... Not the best of weekend's coming up for
the marine community as high pressure will be building down into
the area from the north. At the same time a front will become
stationary to the south and keep the gradient elevated. For
basically the entire period expect northeast winds of 15-20
knots. Seas will be elevated as well with values from 3-6 feet.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... Shk
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi49 min SSW 13 G 15 83°F 86°F1014.6 hPa (-0.4)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi41 min SSW 14 G 19 83°F 83°F1015.3 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi50 min 83°F3 ft
WLON7 12 mi49 min 82°F 85°F1015.5 hPa (-0.0)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi41 min SSW 14 G 19 83°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
41108 42 mi49 min 85°F3 ft
41064 43 mi41 min SW 14 G 18 81°F 84°F1015.5 hPa
41159 43 mi36 min 84°F4 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC9 mi56 minSSW 910.00 miFair83°F73°F74%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S7SE7S6SE8S8SW7S11
G17
SW9SW9
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE10E9E8E9SE7E5SE6E65SE6SE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmE4E4CalmE3E7SE8SE9E8E5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Tue -- 02:26 AM EDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:39 PM EDT     -0.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:47 PM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.1-0.7-0.601.12.53.64.24.13.42.31-0.1-0.8-0.8-0.30.82.23.54.44.64.23.2

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.80.2-0.2-00.61.62.63.33.43.12.41.60.70.1-0.3-0.20.51.52.73.643.83.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.