Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 8:19PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 517 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, then 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, then 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 517 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A strong cold front will approach from the west today and slow, finally moving completely offshore Tuesday afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front and some may be strong to severe tonight into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure and northwest winds will take hold mid week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231043
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
645 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will approach from the west today and slow,
finally moving completely offshore Tuesday afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front with
the possibility for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
late day and tonight. In the wake of the front, dry and cool
air will filter in mid week as canadian high pressure takes
hold. Showers in association with developing low pressure may
return to the area this weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Monday... Weak low-level convergence off the sc coast
associated with a subtle surface trough is helping to generate
widely scattered light showers, which will stream northward through
the pre-dawn hours. Shower activity will increase from west to east
through the afternoon well ahead of a strong, negatively-tilted 500
mb trough, which will be lifting across the oh river valley today.

A 40-50 knot southerly low-level jet will traverse the CWA in
the late afternoon and early evening, and SPC has included
the CWA in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. There will be
potential for damaging winds gusts as convection may strengthen
in the moist and marginally unstable air in place ahead of the
cold front. Wind fields will also become supportive of rotating
updrafts and provide the potential for a few tornadoes.

The front will enter the western CWA around 06z Tuesday, and
should be approaching the coast by 12z. Even outside of convection,
southerly winds will gust to 20-25 mph this afternoon as the
gradient tightens up ahead of the front.

Max temps, and therefore destabilization may be limited by
cloudiness generated by upstream convection early in the day, but
temps will still climb to the upper 70s to near 80. Lows Monday
night will range from around 60 inland to around 70 along the
coast.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
As of 300 am Monday... Deep low pressure will be located across
the great lakes Tue with a strong cold front draped S across the
eastern seaboard. This front is expected to exit the eastern
carolinas later Tue morning through early afternoon. The punch
of dry air behind this negatively tilted system should cut off
any showers across the i-95 corridor by or just after first
light tue. However, given the orientation of the system, it may
take considerably longer before the last of the showers and some
thunderstorms move completely offshore with the showers
persisting into the afternoon along the CAPE fear coast. The
strongest low level jet will have shifted well N of the area tue
morning and we do not expect severe weather on Tue across the
eastern carolinas.

We will see dewpoints drop in the wake of the front with dry air
being reinforced later Tue night into Wed as the wind direction
shifts from SW and W to nw. Dewpoints will drop 20 to 30 degrees,
bottoming out in the upper 30s to around 40 during the later
half of this forecast period.

Skies will be clearing on tue, first across inland areas with
thick cloud cover hanging on longest along the coast, especially
the CAPE fear coast where it may take a good part of the
afternoon before skies begin to clear. Thereafter, we do expect
mainly clear skies throughout.

Highs on Tue will be in the mid and upper 70s with the cold
advection kicking in strongly by wed, highs will only reach the
mid to perhaps upper 60s. Lows Tue night will be in the mid and
upper 40s inland and mainly lower to mid 50s at the coast with
40s throughout Wed night. At this time, it does not appear it
will get cold enough, especially given the warm soils, for any
patchy inland frost to develop with this cold snap.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 230 pm Sunday... Initial portion of the long term looks to
be dry as high pressure transits east across the eastern
carolinas in the wake of a cold fropa. Showers moving in
advance of the next cold front may impact the area as early as
Saturday, but model solutions are still quite divergent as far
as timing goes, with the ECMWF holding off on FROPA until after
the weekend and the GFS being earlier. So, will limit pops to
slight low chance for this weekend until the picture becomes
clearer. It is possible that the weekend may also end up dry.

Temperatures will start off below normal for late october,
warming to more climatologically-correct levels by Friday.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
As of 12z... Quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to the timing of
the precip and ceilings. Safe to say the ceilings and visibilities
will be highly variable, especially this afternoon and evening. Some
good dynamics heading our way, with good frontal lift and decent
helicity later today. Thunder is a good possibility, however left it
out of the tafs for now to see what the coverage will be. The hrrr
model weakens and ends the morning precip, to be replaced with
stronger storms later today with the afternoon heating. Good
southerly gradient will develop by mid morning, continuing through
the early evening hours. The convection will likely go well into the
overnight hours, but will address the intensity and timing in the
next set of tafs.

Extended outlook... BecomingVFR by midday Tuesday.VFR Wednesday
through Friday.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 500 am Monday... Seas building a little quicker than
previously thought and so a small craft advisory is in effect
beginning at 10 am. Latest buoy observations indicate southeast
winds 15 to 20 knots across the waters, and these will veer to
the south and increase through the day as the pressure gradient
tightens well ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind speeds
will increase to 20 to 25 kt with higher gusts and seas will
build to 5 to 8 ft. The worst of the conditions are expected
tonight and into the early morning hours of tue.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 am Monday... Small craft advisory conditions should be
waning on Tue with seas dropping below 6 ft across the outermost
waters, lastly across the northern waters during the afternoon.

Seas will be mainly 4 ft Tue night and 3 to 4 ft for the remainder
of the period. SW winds will be weakening across the waters tue
as the strong low level jet shifts N and we expect wind speeds
of 15 to 20 kt Tue morning to diminish to 10 to 15 kt tue
afternoon. The arrival of colder and drier air across the waters
should allow wind speeds to kick back up to 15 to 20 kt for
much of the remainder of this forecast period as the direction
veers to wnw and nw.

Long term Thursday through Friday ...

as of 230 pm Sunday... High pressure transiting east across the
waters will lead to gradually improving boating conditions with
dry weather through the long term. Period starts out with nw
winds of 15 to 20 kts and 3 to 5 ft seas in the wake of the
previous days fropa, but expect conditions to be become more
favorable as the high moves overhead, with winds of around 10
kts by Friday and seas of around 2 ft.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm edt
Tuesday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis...

near term... Crm
short term... Rjd
long term... Rek
aviation... 43
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi46 min SE 13 G 15 75°F 75°F1021.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi86 min SE 14 G 21 75°F 74°F1021.4 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi65 min 74°F4 ft
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 16 mi109 min SSE 1.9 74°F 1022 hPa69°F
WLON7 17 mi46 min 74°F 73°F1021 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi86 min SSE 14 G 21 76°F 76°F1021.8 hPa
41064 39 mi86 min SSE 14 G 19 76°F 1022.1 hPa
41108 47 mi34 min 74°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi41 minSE 610.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE4E8NE8SE10SE8E8E8E9E8E5E3E4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE6CalmE5SE5SE7SE8SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3NE7SE5SE5SE5SE7E6E6E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3Calm4W5W34CalmE4S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:55 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.621.40.80.50.40.71.32.233.53.63.32.82.11.40.80.50.50.81.42.12.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
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Mon -- 04:00 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:14 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:37 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.60.80.2-00.20.91.92.83.53.83.73.22.51.50.70.20.10.41.11.92.633

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.