Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:33PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:10 AM EST (11:10 UTC) Moonrise 8:38PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 344 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Thursday afternoon...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Showers with isolated tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 344 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure remains off to the northeast today. A cold front will cross the waters Thursday with brief gale conditions expected ahead of the front. High pressure then builds in over weekend, bringing improving marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 231030
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
530 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will shift off shore bringing a considerable
warmup today. Gusty showers will accompany a cold front
that will cross the area Thursday morning. High pressure will
build in from the northwest late in the week. The high will
shift south of the area early next week. Temperatures near
to slightly below normal into the weekend will start warming
early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... Latest sfc analysis shows 1035 mb high
pressure centered just off the va nc coast with 1007 mb low pressure
over mo. The high pushes farther offshore today allowing for onshore
flow to continue over the local area. Lowered rain chances for this
morning due to the strength of the high and weak forcing for ascent.

There will be some increasing warm air advection through the day
while a warm front moves northward and with moisture profiles
somewhat increasing through the day, maintained a slight chance-
chance of a shower especially over western areas. Temps noticeably
warmer than the last couple days... Highs in the low mid 60s.

For tonight, maintained low chance pops out ahead of the approaching
cold front with continued meager forcing. Best chance of rain is
between 09-15z Thursday in association with the cold front and
potent mid-level shortwave trough. Rainfall totals up to around an
inch possible area-wide. Also expect gusty winds out ahead of the
front, from both the gradient winds and moreso any convective
elements showers, due to a 70-80 kt low-level jet. Will mention
gusts to 30-40 mph in the hwo.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Cold front will be in the region as the
period begins, likely with showers ongoing as well as the
possibility of an isolated thunderstorm along the coast.

Although the event looks to be a typical high shear low cape
setup, the timing is not at all favorable. The front will be
crossing the area during the time of lowest CAPE with only a
strong low level jet to aid forcing. Additionally both the gfs
and ECMWF are showing signs of convection along the fl gulf
coast, something that typically hinders convection across
coastal carolina. At this point do not anticipate any severe
weather, but something to keep an eye on. Cold advection lags
the front and Thu afternoon will likely end up mild with gusty
west winds. Might even see some clearing before the Sun sets.

Cold air arrives Thu night as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Thickness and 850 temps rapidly drop, with the later
dropping as much as 8 degrees c in 12 hours. Mixing will help keep
lows overnight near climo Fri morning despite clearing skies and
deep dry air. High continues to build in from the west Fri into fri
night keeping temperatures near to below climo despite plenty of sun
in the afternoon. Precipitable water drops under 0.30" with forecast
soundings showing a bit of a subsidence inversion. Boundary layer
winds weaken and become more easterly Fri night as the center of the
high moves closer to the region. Winds may not go completely calm,
especially along the coast, but radiational cooling should be able
to have some effect. Lows will likely end up below climo with temps
ending up in the mid to upper 20s for much of the area.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 am Wednesday... Mid-level trough will remain over the eastern
conus through the period, with the axis remaining west of the area
into next week.

-temperatures will be near to below climo through the weekend,
trending slightly above next week.

-west to northwest flow aloft will prevent any meaningful moisture
return, precipitable water will be at or below 0.60" through the
period.

-low pressure will pass well off the coast early next week as
another low passes northwest of the area. This low may move a
cold front and increased rain chances into the area late tue.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 12z... High pressure will shift offshore today, with southerly
flow returning. Could be some tricky stratus fog that could set up
around sunrise, but kept things minimal at this time. A coastal
trough sets up this afternoon with a slight chance of showers.

Tonight, a cold front approaches rather rapidly from the west.

Southerly winds ahead of the front will increase, with gusts to 25
kts expected after midnight. Convection will enter our western
terminals by 08z, reaching the coast at the end of the forecast
period.

Extended outlook... MVFR overnight Wednesday into Thursday due to
showers and a passing cold front.VFR Friday through Sunday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions daytime
today with high pressure just off to the ne. Expect 10-20 kt se
winds with 3-5 ft seas. Winds and seas then ramp up tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Converted the gale watch to a warning,
from 06z-18z Thursday, with frequent gusts up to 35-40 kt expected
due to a 70-80 kt low-level jet despite cool ssts. Seas up to 8-11
ft. Chances for sea fog not high enough to include mention in the
forecast attm.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Gale warning ongoing at the start of the
period will transition to a small craft advisory as cold front
pushes east of the waters and westerly flow develops. Gradient
starts to relax Thu afternoon with west flow becoming northwest
thu night as colder air arrives. Northwest winds around 15 kt
thu night drop to around 10 kt Fri and Fri night, becoming north
and then northeast as they slowly weaken. Double digit seas are
expected prior to the passage of the cold front. Once offshore
flow develops seas will start to diminish, but seas are likely
to remain over 6 ft into Fri morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft on fri
slowly subside ending up 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period.

Long term Saturday through Sunday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Surface high over or just south of the
waters at the start of the period will gradually shift
southeast. Weak gradient will keep winds light into Sun before
more defined gradient leads to increasing west-northwest flow.

Late in the period the highs moves farther south and light west
or even southwest winds may develop. Speeds under 10 kt during
the period along with varying direction will keep seas 2 to 3 ft
sat and 2 ft or less on sun.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm est
this afternoon for ncz107.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 1 pm est Thursday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Near term... Mas
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi52 min SSE 17 G 18 56°F 1030.7 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi62 min SSE 16 G 19 57°F 54°F1030.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi40 min 53°F3 ft
WLON7 17 mi52 min 35°F 45°F1030.4 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi62 min S 14 G 21 59°F 58°F1031.3 hPa
41064 39 mi62 min S 9.7 G 14 58°F 58°F1030.3 hPa
41159 39 mi40 min 59°F3 ft
41108 47 mi40 min 52°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi77 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F33°F97%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE7NE10N6N8N6CalmE4E7E6E6E4E4E3NE5NE4NE5N3N4NE3NE4E3CalmSE9
1 day agoN21
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NW15N14N14N10N6N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE4N5NE6NE6
2 days agoW13W13W14
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Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
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Wed -- 03:32 AM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:17 AM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:44 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.5-0.2-0.7-0.6-0.112.13.13.63.532.21.30.4-0.3-0.7-0.50.21.22.32.93.12.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:32 AM EST     -1.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:14 PM EST     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:14 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.3-1-1-0.30.92.53.94.754.53.52.10.7-0.4-1-0.80.11.42.73.74.243.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.