Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday March 23, 2017 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 2:01PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 312 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft...then 3 to 5 ft.
AMZ200 312 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Canadian high pressure will build southward into the mid-atlantic states through Thursday, then will move offshore for the weekend. A weak cold front will approach the waters on Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230700
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
300 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool
high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin
Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system
slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance
of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday
into Tuesday.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 3 am Thursday... Through daybreak the sky will remain clear.

Temperatures have not been falling quite as slow as forecast and
this has called the freeze warning into uncertainty a bit. For now
it appears that the freeze may be a bit more limited in time and
space than what we've forecast but there seems little value in
changing the warning at this time in case the wind continues to
slacken and radiational cooling gets maximized.

Similarly today will be slightly warmer (less cold) than previously
though even if by 2-3 degrees. Even so, highs a few degrees within
60 are still about a good 10 degrees below climatology. Our light ne
to E winds will veer to SE as the day wears on as high pressure to
our north progresses eastward. This trend lasts into tonight and the
addition of moisture may lead to some fog along coastal areas.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
As of 3 am Thursday... Primary headline this period is a notable
warming trend after a nippy start daybreak Friday. High
pressure migrating offshore Friday and strong low pressure
churning toward the central mississippi valley will bring a
robust warm air advection regime, with low to mid 70s looking
like a good bet both Friday and Saturday. This will bring low
temperatures Saturday morning 12-16 degrees milder compared to
Friday morning. Minimal or no rain chances this period however
until after Saturday. The atmospheric column will remain quite
dry above 800 millibars both days, with periods of cumulus in
the cards Friday afternoon through Saturday.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
As of 3 am Thursday... Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a
low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A
warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a
few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks
could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and
favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves
will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks
quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of
the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures
overall appear to run above normal through the extended period.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
As of 06z... Skies have cleared and will remain so through the taf
cycle. Similarly there will be no visibility restrictions so the
entire forecast will featureVFR. Wind will remain out of the NE to
e as high pressure remains to our north.

Extended outlook... Fog possible Thursday night. OtherwiseVFR.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 3 am Thursday... Though winds have tapered inland they
continue to be breezy along the beaches and still downright
howling over the coastal waters. As such a small craft advisory
continues. The gradient will abate today albeit quite gradually
and conditions will remain unfit for most recreational mariners
for most of the day. In fact with conditions so slow to abate
and seas lagging as they always do we may need a short-lived
scec headline after the advisory ends this evening into early
tonight. But later tonight conditions will fall below any
thresholds, though some choppy 4 or occasional 5 ft seas will
linger and many mariners may want to put off boating until the
much quieter short term.

Short term /Friday through Saturday/...

as of 3 am Thursday... A veering wind trend this period but
manageable as high pressure slips offshore. Winds Friday and
Saturday 15 kt or less, except a few higher gusts near shore in
the afternoon as the sea breeze gears up. Seas 3 feet or less
mainly in SE waves every 6-7 seconds. No tstms expected this
period nor obstructions to visibility. A light to moderate chop
for both days.

Long term /Sunday through Monday/...

as of 3 am Thursday... No advisories are expected Sunday and
Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains
persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period
but tstms if any would be confined to the gulf stream if at all.

Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals
with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea
breeze so expected gusts near 20 kt near shore in the afternoon
hours.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ncz087-096-099-
105-107-109.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for amz250-
252-254-256.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... mbb
short term... Mjc
long term... Mjc
aviation... mbb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi44 min NE 23 G 26 48°F 57°F1028.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi45 min 57°F6 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi66 min ENE 18 G 35 49°F 57°F1029.7 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 16 mi89 min ENE 16 48°F 1028 hPa35°F
WLON7 17 mi44 min 42°F 55°F1029.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi66 min E 21 G 29 51°F 63°F1028.5 hPa
41159 39 mi31 min 64°F6 ft
41064 39 mi66 min NE 18 G 23 49°F 1029.8 hPa
41108 47 mi27 min 57°F5 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi21 minNE 610.00 miFair35°F28°F76%1030.2 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5CalmNW9N13
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N12NE12
G17
NE8NE13E8
G17
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NE9NE8NE10NE6NE7NE6
1 day agoSW7S7SW7SW9SW9SW10SW9W13W9W8NW10SW6NW9S10S8SW7SW8SW8SW8S9SW7W16
G27
N11
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W5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE9
G16
3CalmW10
G17
W9NW9S8S10S10S9S5SW4SW4SW5SW3S5SW8SW7SW8

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:41 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:45 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.511.72.42.72.82.62.21.71.10.70.40.30.511.62.12.32.321.510.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:53 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.72.53.23.53.63.22.61.810.40.20.51.11.82.52.93.12.92.41.60.80.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.