Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:56PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:27 PM EDT (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:06AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 859 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Today..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft...then 2 to 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft... Then 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft...subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw. Seas 2 to 3 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 859 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will persist across the waters again today with isolated showers and Thunderstorms possible. A cold front will approach the waters this weekend into early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 181336
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
936 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
High heat and humidity will continue across the area this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
Saturday ahead of a cold front. This front will stall in close
proximity during the weekend before dissipating Monday. High
pressure will build across the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another cold front will approach from the northwest Thursday.

Near term through tonight
As of 930 am Friday... The focus of today will be the heat and
humidity. With the dewpoints running in the lower 80s and the
temperatures expected to reach into the lower to middle 90s,
heat indices are expected to run from 105 to 109 degrees. Thus
the the heat advisory will continue.

On the convective front, the morning soundings and the goes-16
total precipitable water shows 2.2+ inch continue over much of
the area. In the midlevels a trough is progged to approach from
the west overnight. For today the forcing will be mesoscale with
residual boundaries and a weak resultant sea-breeze. The last 2
runs of the hrrr has shown very little convection over the
forecast area through the daytime with an increase in coverage
ahead of the cold front later tonight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
As of 3 am Friday... A longwave trough across the eastern
quarter of the nation Sat will lift out across the northeast
states Sat night and sun. This deep trough will bring a cold
front into portions of our area Sat before stalling as the brunt
of the mid-level shortwave energy swings by to our n. The front
should remain in close proximity and slowly dissipate late in
the weekend and on mon. As the trough lifts out Sat night and
sun, western atlantic high pressure will expand westward across
the carolinas with heights building Sun and Sun night.

The highest and deepest moisture content will be along the
coast sat, along and ahead of the front. Will carry high pops as
convection may be numerous to widespread here as the front
interacts with the seabreeze. Models are attempting to bring
drier air into inland portions of the forecast area on sat. If
this were to happen, then the risk for showers and storms would
be less as you move inland from the coast. I did show a downward
trend in pops as you move inland sat, but not as low as several
of the models would indicate at this time. Increasing instability
should allow for at least scattered thunderstorms, even well
inland. Rainfall on Sat could be heavy at times. Did cut off
pops altogether Sat night, except along the coast where moisture
convergence is still evident, strongest offshore.

On sun, a weakening front will be overhead or close by at the
surface while ridging increases aloft. This suggests lower pops
are warranted, and have slight chance to chance with the highest
probabilities for showers and thunderstorms along portions of
the grand strand and south santee river area.

Considerable clouds and convection on Sat should keep highs
around 90. Highs on Sun should be a degree or two warmer in
some locations. The heat index should be below heat advisory
criteria both days as dewpoints will be a degree or two less
than in recent days. Still, it will feel as if it were near 100
and as uncomfortable as 104 degrees. Lows will be in the 70s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... Front appears to wash out completely
by Monday leaving behind some weak troughiness. This doesn't
elucidate much regarding eclipse view especially along the coast
since in such a setup cumulus development should be fairly
widespread and vertically vigorous. Tuesday should represent the
lowest rainfall chances during the period with a pinned
seabreeze, zonal flow aloft, and a piedmont trough to our west.

Energetic northwest flow and the next cold front arrive on
Wednesday. This front may have a better chance than the early
week boundary in clearing the area at least in part on Thursday
as there is a stronger upper trough and higher surface pressures
driving its progress.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
As of 12z... Convection was waning across the waters. However,
cumulus has expanded westward and was brushing the coast.

Included a 5 kft ceiling for the coastal tafs this morning.

Included vcts at all the terminals this afternoon for isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with the seabreeze
and piedmont trough as well as outflow boundaries acting to
focus deep moisture still in place. Convection should move
inland of the coastal terminals by late morning, but the risk
will linger into the early eve for klbt and kflo. A cold front
will approach from the NW tonight. There may be some late night
showers rumble of thunder encroaching on klbt and kflo after 06z
ahead of a cold front. Prevailing conditions are expected to
remainVFR, but any thunderstorm that move directly over a
terminal will have the potential to drop ceiling visibility to
MVFR or lower.

Extended outlook... Potential for MVFR ifr will increase,
especially sat, as showers and thunderstorms increase. Showers
and thunderstorms will decrease to scattered Sun through tue.

Flight restrictions will be possible in early morning stratus
fog sun-tue.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 pm Friday... 10 to 15 knot southwest winds occurring
at the buoys this morning with seas running 2 to 3 feet. The
winds are expected to increase to 15 knots as a cold front moves
closer to the waters but stalls inland. Seas are expected to
respond by increasing to 3 to 4 feet overnight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 300 am Friday... A front will stall upstream of the waters
sat and then slowly begin to dissipate late in the weekend. The
strongest winds will occur sat, up to around 15 kt. Wind speeds
will decrease to 10 to 15 kt Sat night, and then near 10 kt
sun, trailing off to less than 10 kt Sun night. The direction
will remain from the SW although scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will likely corrupt the prevailing flow. Seas will
be 3 to 4 ft sat, subsiding to 3 ft Sun and to 2 ft by early
mon morning. Higher winds and seas will be possible in and near
thunderstorms.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Very light southwesterly Monday with a
cold front decaying into a weak surface trough. Seas will be
running their fairly 'normal' 2-3 and occasionally 4 ft. The
trough may wash out for a time Monday night for some light and
variable winds but it reforms Tuesday for a return of south to
southwesterly flow, likely capped at 10kt.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.

Nc... Heat advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Marine... None.

Near term... Hawkins
short term... Rjd
long term... mbb
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi39 min S 13 G 14 86°F 83°F1013.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi79 min SSW 7.8 G 14 85°F 84°F1014.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi28 min 84°F2 ft
WLON7 17 mi39 min 92°F 84°F1014.3 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi79 min SSW 12 G 18 84°F 84°F1015.1 hPa
41064 39 mi79 min SW 12 G 14 83°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
41159 39 mi44 min 84°F3 ft
41108 47 mi27 min 84°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi34 minWSW 910.00 miFair92°F78°F64%1014.2 hPa

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Last 24hrSE8E7CalmSW3CalmCalmSW5S3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmS4S3S3S3S5S5SW7SW9W8W6SW9
1 day agoN444SE8E7SE4SE6SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6SE6SE7SE8
2 days agoE6SE5SE7S8S11S6S6SW10SW5CalmCalmSW4S3CalmCalmS3CalmN5NW3NW5N6N7N5NW3

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:39 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:39 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.51.222.62.82.72.21.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.31.12.23.23.83.93.632.21.30.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:55 AM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:33 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:47 PM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.81.82.73.33.53.22.51.40.3-0.5-0.7-0.40.51.7344.64.6431.70.5-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.