Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Topsail Beach, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:56PM Saturday April 29, 2017 7:19 AM EDT (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 8:15AMMoonset 10:36PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 617 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 617 Am Edt Sat Apr 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze showers or Thunderstorms, mainly on Sunday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms late Monday into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week period.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Topsail Beach, NC
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location: 34.34, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 291028
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
628 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will extend across the area from offshore through
Sunday. Expect warm temperatures and isolated sea breeze
showers or storms, mainly Sunday. The next cold front will
bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Monday into
early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the mid-week
period. A low pressure system will impact the region Thursday
into Friday with possible soaking rain.

Near term /through tonight/
As of 300 am Saturday... Low stratus was covering much of the
local forecast area early this morning as evident on the 11-3.9
micron satellite imagery. A very moist southerly flow has
remained up around 10 mph keeping fog out of the picture, but
allowing the development of stratus mainly along the coast and
then moving inland. Model guidance does not have a good grip on
the clouds, but sounding data does show a saturated layer
between 500 and 1500 ft through early this morning.

A very humid air mass will continue to maintain dewpoint temps
in the 70s with temps holding in the low to mid 70s through
early this morning. This is very unusual for april. Although
there is a moist saturated shallow layer of moisture, the
atmosphere aloft remains very dry as mid to upper ridge builds
over the eastern carolinas. This dry air and subsidence aloft
will maintain a lid on convection and therefore once the stratus
lifts there should only be some CU around this afternoon and
possibly some cirrus streaming high in the sky. Expect a good
amount of sunshine across the area once the low clouds dissipate
as drier air mixes down this morning. Temps will soar into and through
the 80s today reaching around 90 inland with overnight lows
holding up around 70 tonight once again. Overall, temps are
running about 15 degrees above normal.

Climate note: a new all-time record warm low temperature of 74
degrees was set for the month of april in wilmington. Records
extend back to the year 1874.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/
As of 3 am Saturday... Chances for convection increase through the
period as a cold front moves east across the coastal carolinas, with
a deep upper trough descending upon central conus. High pressure
over the western atlantic will retreat east as the cold front
approaches, with Sunday being generally dry other than some spotty
afternoon sea-breeze related convection. Pops increase on Monday,
maxing out in the likely category Monday night as the front moves
across the forecast area. Steady SW flow in advance of the front
will maintain above-normal temperatures for both days, with highs in
the mid 80s (lower at the coast) and lows in the 60s.

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/
A cold front will move off the coast Tue morning and high
pressure along the gulf coast will slide east and then offshore
to our S during wed. This should bring a dry period. Deep low
pressure will move out of the mid south and gulf coast states
wed, lifting slowly to the ne. Its associated cold front will
move into the southeast states thu-thu night, bringing the risk
for robust thunderstorms.

Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/
As of 12z Saturday... Main forecast uncertainty regards when
patchy stratus currently blanketing area will break up.

Although overall confidence low that stratus will lift by mid-
morning, satellite loops show myr and cre will likely be most
affected due to a large and persistent area of offshore stratus.

A return to ifr/MVFR conditions possible again overnight.

Extended outlook... Periods of ifr/MVFR conditions are possible
in showers and thunderstorms late Monday into early Tuesday.

Marine
Near term /through tonight/...

as of 300 am Saturday... Southerly return flow around 10 kts will
maintain seas between 2 and 3 ft most waters. The winds and seas
will kick up this afternoon as sea breeze develops. It will also
help to back the winds a bit through the aftn. A very warm and
humid air mass is helping to bring water temps up into the 70s.

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...

as of 300 am Saturday... Increasing SW flow in advance of the
next cold front will make it likely that a small craft advisory
will need to be issued on Monday for winds gusting up to around
30 kts. By Monday night seas will have built to 4 to 7 ft
although winds may slacken in the pre- dawn hours of Tuesday as
the front makes its close approach. Sunday looks to be the
better day for boating, with seas of right around 3 ft and winds
of 10 to 15 kts.

Long term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...

as of 300 pm Friday... In the wake of the cold frontal passage
early Tuesday, offshore winds will slowly diminish. The offshore
trajectories will knock seas down and should drop below small
craft advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon. There are no
concerns for Wednesday into Thursday.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Rgz
short term... Rek
long term... 99
aviation... Rek
marine... 99/rek/rgz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi62 min SW 7 G 8.9 74°F 71°F1022.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 14 mi51 min 70°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi72 min W 3.9 G 5.8 71°F 70°F1022.6 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 16 mi95 min WSW 5.1 74°F 1023 hPa74°F
WLON7 17 mi62 min 74°F 69°F1022.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi72 min S 9.7 G 14 74°F 72°F1021.9 hPa
41159 39 mi67 min 72°F4 ft
41064 39 mi72 min SSW 9.7 G 14 73°F 1022.7 hPa
41108 47 mi63 min 73°F3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi27 minSSW 510.00 miFair73°F72°F96%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5SW11SW15W9SW9S15
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SW12S10S8S6S5S8S12S11S8S8S11
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2 days agoW5W4W7W6W5W9W9
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S10SW9S6S7S9S10SW8SW7SW5S3S3CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for New Topsail Inlet, North Carolina
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New Topsail Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:25 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:09 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.71.70.7-0-0.4-0.30.31.32.32.932.72.11.40.6-0.1-0.4-0.30.41.52.73.74.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:24 AM EDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:21 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:55 PM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.41-0.2-0.8-0.8-01.12.43.33.83.73.12.10.9-0.2-0.9-0.8-0.11.12.53.74.64.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.