Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:19 AM EST (09:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 5:16PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 kt or less. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain with a slight chance of snow.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 317 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will ridge into the area from the north today before moving offshore tonight. A cold front will cross the waters Wednesday, with light precipitation expected late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Arctic high pressure will build in Wednesday night and Thursday and will likely bring small craft advisory conditions. The high will move off the coast by Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 160753
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
253 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Weak high pressure will dissipate across the carolinas today. A
cold front will move across the area Wednesday bringing a mix of
rain and snow with small accumulations possible inland. Cold and
dry arctic air will build into area Wednesday night and
Thursday. Temperatures should moderate over the weekend as high
pressure moves off the southeast coast. Rain chances could
return Monday with the next cold front.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Tuesday... A weakening ridge of high pressure extending
south into the carolinas will hold on for most of the period. Warm
advection will occur above this surface-based layer allowing for
afternoon temperatures to top 50; much milder than yesterday but
still a few degrees below climatology. Moisture will increase in the
warm advection zone with clear skies this morning giving way to a
partly cloudy afternoon. The more pronounced increase increase in
moisture is slated to occur from west to east tonight as a cold
front approaches ahead of a strong trough and vorticity max. Some
very light rain or snow could begin affecting westernmost counties
by the end of the period. The ptype is a bit questionable as there
could be a late night minor rise in temperature.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
As of 300 am Tuesday... Virtually all 00z model guidance is
showing more precipitation on Wednesday than was being shown 24
hours ago. The culprit appears to be a sharper mid and upper
level trough now being depicted moving across the area. This
leads to winds in the 850-500 mb layer backing by maybe 20
degrees compared to yesterday's model runs, allowing the
northern gulf of mexico to be briefly tapped as a moisture
source and supplementing the meager pacific moisture that is
being routed from the west. Where my QPF values were .02 to .04
yesterday, now a tenth of an inch or more is possible across
parts of the sandhills.

Of course the bigger issue is how much of that QPF falls as
snow. The GFS is a cooler than the NAM with its low-level
thermal profiles which would allow for a more rapid changeover
to snow, particularly west of i-95 during the morning hours. The
new 00z ECMWF is a compromise solution between the GFS and nam,
and implies rain should change to snow across hartsville and
bennettsville by 9 am. Colder air aloft beneath the approaching
upper trough will continue to build eastward during the day,
offsetting any insolation trying to punch through the clouds and
allowing the changeover to occur in lumberton by noon, and in
elizabethtown and whiteville by mid afternoon.

Given no warm nose aloft, this is likely to be a clean transition
from rain to snow without any sleet or freezing rain to deal
with. Forecast snowfall accumulations are up to 1 inch from
bennettsville across northern robeson and bladen counties, with
less than half an inch from darlington and dillon to lumberton
and elizabethtown.

Precipitation is not likely to be as significant along the
coast as the gulf of mexico moisture connection is severed by
the time things get going here. Precip should end between 6-9 pm
along the coast, but even in wilmington and myrtle beach there
could be a brief period of light snow at the tail end of the
event. Thinning moisture aloft should preclude any significant
snowfall totals here.

As skies clear and the core of the cold air aloft moves
overhead, lows Wednesday night should fall to 20-23, warmest
along the sc coast. Warm advection will begin on westerly
winds Thursday with clear, dry weather expected. Highs should
reach 40-45.

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Surface high building in from the west
thu is quickly shifted east by zonal flow aloft. Lack of
troughing aloft coupled with quick eastward movement of the
surface high will limit duration of cold temps to Thu and thu
night. Warm advection begins on Fri as the center of the high
slips south and then east of the area as Fri turns into sat.

Southern stream shortwave moving across the gulf of mexico this
weekend opens up and weakens as it lifts northeast. By the time
it reaches the southeast Sunday, the wave will have weakened
considerably. It may bring an increase in mid- level cloud cover
to the area but rainfall is unlikely. Best rainfall chances
during the period will be next week when a cold front, trailing
a surface low over the great lakes, moves into the region on
mon. Still a lot of uncertainty, but there should be a period of
moisture return ahead of it, compliments of weak 5h ridging
over the weekend. The aforementioned 5h ridge coupled with low
level warm advection will produce temperatures 10 degrees above
climo during the later half of the period.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 06z...VFR through Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure maintains
itself through the period, nudging in from the north-northeast. This
will keep winds light and variable andVFR conditions expected. The
last few hours of the TAF cycle will usher in rapid changes with the
approach of a strong cold front and clouds may increase at flo lbt.

Extended outlook... Rain MVFR tempo ifr with a chance for a
wintry mix wed, otherwiseVFR with high pressure in control.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... Light northerly winds today will be the
result of a ridge of high pressure extending south into the
carolinas. As it weakens this ridge will progress eastward over
the coastline and winds may go light and variable early tonight.

Towards the end of the period a cold front will approach from
the west but its southerly winds appear to fail to overspread
the region during the near term. Winds will remain at 10kt or
less and may turn westerly.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night ...

as of 300 am Tuesday... A cold front will move across the area on
Wednesday. While this won't look like an impressive system on
the surface weather maps, it's got plenty of cold air behind it
beneath a very powerful upper level system that will whip across
the area Wednesday night. Patchy rain Wednesday afternoon could
actually mix with or change to snow before ending Wednesday
night, particularly north of CAPE fear.

The biggest marine weather impact from this system is likely to
be increasing northwesterly winds behind the cold front,
anticipated to reach a solid 25 knots Wednesday night. Wind
chills could dip as low as 10-15 degrees on the beaches. This
will necessitate small craft advisories which might be issued as
soon as this afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish during the
day Thursday.

Long term Friday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... High pressure will pass south of the
waters Fri night into sat. Gradient will remain weak Fri and sat
with speeds 10 to 15 kt Fri diminishing to 10 kt or less sat.

Seas trend down to 2 to 3 ft Fri and will remain 2 to 3 ft
through the end of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... mbb
short term... Tra
long term... Iii
aviation... mbb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi50 min 30°F 44°F1030 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi50 min N 6 G 8 32°F 46°F1030.2 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 14 mi95 min NNE 1 29°F 1029 hPa25°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi51 min 47°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi72 min N 7.8 G 12 38°F 47°F1029.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi72 min NNE 9.7 G 16 45°F 62°F1029.8 hPa
41108 44 mi50 min 46°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi72 min N 5.8 G 7.8 34°F 1030.2 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi27 minNNW 310.00 miFair29°F25°F85%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N7N9NW9NW10N8NW8NW10NW9N7NW8N10N3NW5N4N4N3N3CalmCalmNW4NW3NW3
1 day agoNE9N12N8NE14N11N13N10
G17
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2 days agoSW10SW10SW8SW10W19
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NW12N7N5N6N6N5N3N5N8N9NE11

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Tue -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:08 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:57 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.61.410.70.40.1-0.1-00.411.41.71.91.81.51.10.80.50.1-00.20.71.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:52 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:16 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 09:23 PM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.70.90.3-0.10.21.32.63.64.24.64.43.72.81.91.10.40.10.71.92.93.643.93.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.