Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:30PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:56AMMoonset 6:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 326 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 326 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southerly flow around atlantic high pressure will continue through tonight. A weak cold front will approach from the west during Tue and push across the area waters and offshore during Wed. High pressure will follow and build across the area from the north Wed night into Thu. Another cold front will move across the waters on Fri.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 271910
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
310 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Changeable conditions will persist for the next several days.

There is a chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday
and again Friday and early Saturday. The weekend should be dry
with an increasing chance of showers early next week.

Near term /through Tuesday/
As of 3 pm Monday... In the very near term the hrrr suggests that
the inland showers will dissipate as heating decreases. Satellite
shows a fairly impressive looking shortwave crossing missouri. This
feature will lead to an increase in moisture locally as it
progresses eastward. For most of the overnight hours this will mean
increasing clouds. Inland areas will see rain chances on the rise as
cyclonic mid level flow and weak height falls impinge upon the area.

The upper trough will be both weakening and shifting northward a bit
as it translates eastward. This is where the strongest ascent will
occur and the small but non-zero threat for severe weather will be
located. Forecast soundings do show some dry mid level air however
and so the SPC marginal risk does include some of our northern
counties. Dry advection and the exiting shortwave should make
for rapidly decreasing rain chances later tomorrow afternoon.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
As of 300 pm Monday... Mid level ridging moving slowly across the
tennessee valley will be the main player through the short term
period. This will allow high pressure to migrate from the great
lakes region into a cold air damming scenario by early
Thursday. With a cold front moving offshore early in the period,
pops will not be an issue through the period. Expect mostly
sunny skies Wednesday with some low level cloudiness developing
in with the wedge early Thursday. Expect another warm day
Wednesday with highs possibly reaching and eclipsing 80 degrees
before the cool down Thursday.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 300 am Monday... Strong high pressure centered across
quebec province Thu morning will ridge south across the eastern
carolinas. The ridge will drift offshore during the day Thu and
thu night. Strong low pressure across the midwest Thu night will
move to the northeast and gradually weaken. Its attendant cold
front will move across the area Fri night. Deep moisture will be
tapped ahead of this system, but the best upper level support
will pass by to our n. Still expect a likelihood of showers and
thunderstorms Fri and Fri night. Drier air will gradually build
into the area on Sat as high pressure slowly builds from the nw,
but with cool air aloft, can not rule out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. Upper ridge late in weekend will move offshore
during Mon and this will allow a very potent southern stream
system to bring a heightened risk of showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern carolinas as it lifts NE from the gulf coast
states into the southern great lakes region and brings a surge
of deep gulf of mexico moisture northward.

High temps will be above normal through the period, lower to mid
70s. Lows will be mainly in the 50s.

Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/
As of 18z...VFR for the remainder of the daylight hours. Clouds will
lower overnight with the approach of a healthy mid level
disturbance. This has complicated the fog forecast for the overnight
hours. Some guidance is suggesting some MVFR visibilities but it
seems too cloudy according to forecast soundings. Showers and
thunderstorm chances will also be on the rise from west to east
overnight.

Extended outlook... Restrictions to ceiling and visibility possible
in scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms tue.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms fri/fri night will increase
the risk for reduced ceilings and visibility.

Marine
Near term /through Tuesday/...

as of 3 pm Monday... Light southerly winds for the remainder of the
day will last into the overnight hours. Waves a bit larger than what
such meager wind would support as there is some swell energy as
evident by 41013's dominant period of 9 seconds. S winds will turn
more to the SW heading into Tuesday as an upper level disturbance
and surface low pass by to our north.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...

as of 3 pm Monday... Expect changeable winds through the period as
initially a southwest flow of around 15 knots will be in place. A
cold front will quickly move across the waters by 12z Wednesday with
a weak west to northwest flow. This modest flow will be in place for
about six hours or so before a surge from the northeast commences.

This surge will last through the remainder of the period with winds
from the northeast on the lower end of a 15-20 knot range.

Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and late in the period with
2-4 feet in between.

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/...

as of 300 am Monday... A small craft advisory may be required
for all waters Fri and Fri night.

Strong high pressure centered across quebec province Thu morning
will ridge south across the waters. The ridge will drift offshore
during the day Thu and Thu night. Strong low pressure across the
midwest Thu night will move to the northeast and gradually weaken.

Its attendant cold front will move across the waters Fri night. High
pressure will gradually build across the waters from the NW during
sat. The wind direction will be from the NE Thu morning, veering to
the E Thu afternoon and SE Thu night. S winds Fri will veer to sw
fri night and then shift to W toward Sat morning. Wind speeds will
be 15 to 20 kt Thu and Thu night and may increase to 20 to 25 kt
fri/fri night. Wind speeds on Sat will be 10 to 15 kt. Seas will be
3 to 5 ft Thu and Thu night, building to 4 to 7 ft fri/fri night
before subsiding to 3 to 4 ft Sat afternoon.

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... mbb
short term... Shk
long term... Rjd
aviation... mbb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi43 min 72°F 60°F1016.6 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi43 min S 13 G 14 65°F 60°F1016 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 14 mi106 min SSW 4.1 71°F 1017 hPa58°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi62 min 63°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi83 min S 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 63°F1017.5 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi83 min S 3.9 G 7.8 71°F 65°F1016.8 hPa
41108 44 mi44 min 64°F3 ft
SSBN7 46 mi61 min 2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi38 minS 1210.00 miFair74°F55°F52%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5S5S8S8S11
G16
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1 day agoS9S5S4S4S5SE3CalmS6SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4S9S13
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2 days agoS6SE4S4S6S4S5S6CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmS5SW8SW12S7S12S11
G15
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S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:11 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:39 PM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.91.71.30.90.50.2-0.1-00.51.21.71.921.81.51.10.70.30-0.10.311.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.31.40.60.10.31.53.14.24.74.94.63.82.71.70.90.30.212.74.14.95.14.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.