Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:28PM Thursday June 22, 2017 7:59 PM EDT (23:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:45AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 709 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late Friday night through late Saturday night...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...then 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 709 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will build westward across the area waters into the upcoming weekend. A cold front will move into or near the waters on Sunday, lingering through Monday before moving well offshore on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222329
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
729 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure will build westward over the eastern
carolinas through today as tropical storm cindy moves up from
the western gulf coast. The remnants of tropical storm cindy
should reach the southern appalachians Friday night with its
associated moisture increasing the risk for showers and
thunderstorms through Saturday. A cold front will reach the
area but may remain stalled in close proximity Sunday and
Monday. Dry high pressure will build in through the middle of
next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 730 pm Thursday... Only subtle changes to the forecast this
evening with some very near term tweaks to cloud cover and
temperature trends. Most guidance has showers ending almost
completely over the next few hours and even though we aren't
carrying much I resisted removing pops completely as any
outflow or residual boundary could trigger some activity. No
other changes. Previous discussion follows:
plenty of tropically-sourced moisture in
the column now with soundings showing p W values in the 2 inch
range. This will change in the early morning hours of Friday as
dryer air at the mid-levels moves in. High-res guidance handling
present convection well with a focus along the coast and
secondary activity well inland. Have relied on this guidance
for the very near term, with pops dropping to slight chance
overnight and only isolated convection for Friday. Temperatures
will remain very seasonally-correct and do expect warmer
readings on Friday as we will see more breaks on the cloud
cover. We will be seeing the beginnings of a pattern shift
during the near term, with the bermuda ridge pushing east as the
upper h 5 ridge breaks down as a broad upper trough descends
upon eastern conus.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 3 pm Thursday... The upper ridging extending across the
southeast states, including the ilm cwa, will peak Fri evening.

This will help keep the remnants of cindy west and north of the
fa Friday night with models taking it off the DELMARVA coast
during Saturday morning. The flow aloft will suppress the upper
ridging during Saturday with models indicating the upper
longwave trof expanding southward as a result of weak mid-level
s W trofs vorts rotating thru it. The wavelength of this upper
trof is quite extensive, affecting a good chunk of u.S. Real
estate by and during this upcoming weekend.

At the sfc, the remnants of cindy will hook up with a cold
front Fri night. The cold front is progged to be oriented NE to
sw across the western carolinas early Saturday and will slowly
sink toward the southeast Saturday and likely across portions of
the fa Sat night. Any leftover diurnally induced convection fri
evening should become pop-less Fri night into early sat.

Convection will fire up by mid to late Sat morning inland and
extend to and off the carolina coasts during Sat and Sat night.

Will have forcing from the front, pinned sea breeze,
differential heating and very weak but effective perturbations
in the mid-level flow. Pops will be ramped up to good chance
just shy of likely, for Sat aftn and night.

The sfc pg will remain tightened thruout this period except
come Sat night when the cold front itself will be nearly
overhead. As for winds, expecting ssw-sw 10 to 15 mph, except up
to 20 mph at the coast, winds will become sw-wsw 10-20 mph
during Sat then finally decrease Sat night as the sfc pg
relaxes.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... Cold front will be stalled along the coast
Sunday and Monday before being pushed offshore and out of the area
during Tuesday. The stalled boundary combined with deep SW flow
aloft and residual moisture from the departing remnants of TS cindy
will create a good chance for showers and thunderstorms the first
half of the extended. The GFS has been consistent with widespread
activity Sunday and Monday, and now the latest ecm cmc have trended
in that direction as well. Pwats climb towards 2.25 inches Sunday
before slowly falling Monday, so the highest pop will be Sunday, but
an unsettled period is expected until a secondary front beneath an
anomalously deep trough clears everything out on Tuesday.

This secondary front will usher in much cooler air for the remainder
of the period. 850mb temps crash towards +10c, near the bottom 10th
percentile for late june, and highs will likely remain at least 5
degrees below climo Tue Wed with dewpoints potentially falling into
the 50s! This will feel quite refreshing, especially after the high
humidity of Sunday. By Thursday the surface high shifts offshore and
height rises begin again, so temps and humidity will increase, but
remain below seasonable norms into late week.

Aviation 23z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 00z... Expect mostlyVFR through the period. I did add
some MVFR ceilings to most sites a couple hours either side of
12z based on guidance and persistence. Lbt and flo had some ifr
ceilings this morning and wouldn't be surprised to see them dip
down again although I didn't quite have the confidence at this
point. The next issuance may want to consider adding based on
trends.

Extended outlook... MVFR ceilings vsbys Saturday as tropical
moisture associated with cindy remnants traverse the region.

Patchy fog and low ceilings possible 08z-13z Friday. More
MVFR ifr conditions possible in shra tsra with passage of cold
front late Saturday into early Sunday.

Marine
Near term through Friday ...

as of 730 pm Thursday... No changes to the coastal waters
forecast with the evening update. Previous discussion follows:
persistent S to swly winds will persist
over the waters around the back-side of the bermuda high through
the near term. Main change will be a gradual tightening of the
gradient with winds increasing from present 5 to 10 kt range to
10 to 15 kts tonight and 15 to 20 kts by Friday afternoon. Seas
will likewise increase, from around 2 ft this afternoon to 2 to
3 ft tonight and up to 4 ft on Friday. Winds and seas will be
higher in the vicinity of thunderstorms this afternoon.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... SCA conditions Fri night thru Saturday.

Dropping back to scec conditions during Sat night.

Bermuda high pressure centered off the southeast u.S. Coast
will lose a portion of its grip across the local waters this
period. This in response to a sfc cold front dropping southeast
and becoming oriented ne-sw just inland from the atl waters by
late Sat night. At the start of this period, a well tightened
sfc pg will exist across the local waters, which will continue
thru Fri night and daytime sat. During Sat night, models finally
and slowly relax the pg across the area waters. Wind directions
will basically run from the ssw-sw Fri night and sw-wsw sat
into Sat night. Significant seas will be elevated thruout this
period, peaking Fri night thru early Sat evening. Locally
produced wind driven waves at 3 to 5 second periods will
dominate this period. The sw-wsw winds will result in a limited
fetch for the seas to develop off of. Scattered to widespread
convection Sat afternoon and night will pose the usual hazards
to mariners.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Cold front will stall along the coast and
waver in the vicinity Sunday and Monday before a secondary
front pushes everything out the sea and clears the waters on
Tuesday. Winds will fluctuate between S and W Sunday Monday, but
the weak gradient immediately near the front will keep winds at
10 kts or less regardless of direction. As the second front
kicks everything off to the east on Tuesday, winds will
northerly, with speeds around 10 kts. A 2 ft 8sec SE swell will
exist in the spectrum each day, and thanks to light winds
sun Mon will likely be the predominant wave group despite a
present S SW wind-wave. Seas will be 3-4 ft very early Sunday
before falling to 2-3 ft most of Sun mon, and then fall further
to 1-2 ft Tuesday as the winds turn offshore.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 am edt
Sunday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... Rek shk
short term... Dch
long term... Jdw
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi41 min 79°F 82°F1018.1 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi41 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 79°F 79°F1017.5 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 14 mi74 min Calm 80°F 1019 hPa77°F
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi60 min 80°F3 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi51 min Calm G 3.9 79°F 79°F1018 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi51 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 80°F1018.2 hPa
SSBN7 46 mi119 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi51 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 81°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi66 minS 410.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S4CalmCalmSW5SW6SW6SW4SW3SW3CalmCalmSW5SW7W7SW6W9NW8W8SW5SW5W7CalmS4
1 day agoW5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW6CalmCalmNW4CalmNW6NW9NW11N5CalmS3S5S6SE8SE8S9
2 days agoS16
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Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:24 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:23 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:27 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:52 PM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.71.310.60.3-000.51.11.61.81.81.51.10.70.40.1-0.2-0.20.31.11.72.1

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:32 AM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:18 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:07 PM EDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.40.5-0.10.21.42.83.84.24.23.72.71.70.80.1-0.4-0.212.84.24.95.254.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.