Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Castle Hayne, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 7:49 PM EDT (23:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 3:05AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 732 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 3 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 10 kt or less. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. A chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 732 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Upper level low pressure will move overhead tonight. A series of weak cold fronts will move across the waters Thursday, Friday, and again on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Castle Hayne, NC
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location: 34.35, -77.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 252239
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
638 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Synopsis
A series of low pressure systems, will bring isolated showers this
afternoon, and then a better chance of rain with isolated storms
Thursday night. A drying trend is expected later in the weekend
through the first part of next week, with below normal temperatures,
as a canadian high drops into the mid-atlantic region. A warming
trend is expected by the middle of the week.

Near term through Thursday
As of 325 pm Wednesday... Upper low rotating slowly across the mid-
atlantic is producing steep lapse rates which are working together
with highs in the 70s to produce instability and CU showers. As is
typically the case beneath these upper low, CU has been extensive
beneath the cold pool aloft, and showers storms have developed.

However, despite SBCAPE of 500-1000 j kg, storms have been displaced
north of the local area and even showers have struggled locally
thanks to very dry air above 700mb and some weak subsidence aloft as
well. Still carrying schc for nc zones through this evening, but any
activity will be light and diurnally forced, so a quiet night is
expected. As the upper low pulls away, it will drive a weak trough
across the area, causing winds to shift to the NW ahead of a ridge
of surface high pressure. At the same time, a secondary shortwave
will be digging into the ARKLATEX region, and 850-500mb moisture
begins to increase ahead of this feature. This will keep some mid-
level cloudiness around through the night, so despite light winds,
mins will stay elevated tonight falling into the upper 50s.

On Thursday, the aforementioned upper low approaches which causes
increasing diffluence, better column moisture, and an increasing
chance for showers through the day. Guidance is slow with the
surface reflection so expect only minimal shower chances through
Thursday, but have shown low-chc near i-95 by the end of the period.

Another seasonable day is forecast despite the clouds however, and
highs will climb into the mid 70s, near 70 at the beaches.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
As of 325 pm Wednesday... Closed 500 mb low and associated surface
low centered over southeast tn and northern ga Thursday evening will
open up and lift across the mid-atlantic states through Friday. A
warm front is expected to be just north of the forecast area at 00z
Friday, with the cold front poised to enter the western zones around
midnight. Marginal instability in the warm sector will lead to
potential for isolated thunderstorms along with the scattered to
numerous showers ahead of the frontal boundary. By 12z Friday, most
of the activity will be northeast of the area, however additional
light showers may develop later Friday in lingering moisture below
700 mb, ahead of an approaching 700 mb trough.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 325 pm Wednesday... The next shortwave is progged to primarily
pass south of the carolinas during Saturday morning while the main
upper low translates across the eastern great lakes region. Thus not
much in the way of lift for our part of the carolinas and a rather
dry column through the extended supports very little in the way of
pops. A dry frontal passage Saturday night will be followed by cool
high pressure at the surface through the remainder of the weekend.

Although temperatures will be cooler than normal Sunday and Monday
the weather will be quite tolerable with highs generally in the
lower 70s with clear skies. A warm-up is expected by mid-week as the
high moves off the coast with as return flow develops.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 00z... Clouds appear to be dissipating at this time, as these
waning clouds are the result of an upper low, cold air aloft, which
kicks off cumulus stratocumulus in the afternoon. Upper low will
have less influence tomorrow, but still aVFR ceiling is possible.

Winds becoming light after 01z, with a southeast gradient resultant
in the afternoon on Thursday.

Extended outlook... Tempo MVFR Thu night through sat. Otherwise
vfr.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... Small craft advisory for nc waters remains
in place through 8pm for residual 6 ft seas even as winds have
fallen well below criteria. Winds will continue to ease and shift to
the W NW this evening as a trough moves overhead. This will push the
remaining 6 ft seas out of the 20nm boundary, and the SCA should
expire on time, if not be cancelled a bit early. Winds will become
w NW around 5 kts overnight, and then veer slowly to the NE and then
e and finally the S on Thursday at around 10 kts in response to a
retreating surface high and approaching weak low. These winds will
keep seas at low amplitude, 2-4 ft.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... Surface low pressure will move up the
appalachians Friday, resulting in southerly flow across the
waters during the day. The magnitude of the gradient will remain
modest, with winds remaining 15 kts or less. Winds will veer to
the southwest during the evening with the approach of a cold
front, which will move off the coast after midnight Thursday
night. Not much of a wind shift will occur behind the front,
although it will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers,
and isolated thunderstorms. Winds will become more westerly by
late Friday night as a weak surface trough approaches the coast
from the west.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 325 pm Wednesday... A front will shift off the coast
Saturday night followed by high pressure building in from the
northwest through Sunday night. The high will build over the waters
during Monday. Southwest winds ahead of the front Saturday will
veer to a westerly direction Saturday evening, then turn northerly
in the wake of the front by Sunday morning. Variable flow is
expected Monday as the high builds overhead. Seas of 3 to 4 ft
are possible during Sunday, otherwise they will subside to around
2 ft Monday with a weak pressure gradient overhead.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for amz250-
252.

Synopsis... Srp
near term... Jdw
short term... Crm
long term... Srp
aviation... 43
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WLON7 9 mi50 min 74°F 65°F1007.1 hPa (+0.8)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi50 min W 12 G 17 73°F 65°F1007.3 hPa (+0.9)
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 18 mi50 min 63°F4 ft
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 18 mi102 min SW 12 G 18 66°F 63°F1005.9 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 39 mi42 min WSW 16 G 25 66°F 66°F1007.2 hPa
41108 44 mi50 min 62°F4 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 46 mi42 min SW 5.8 G 12 65°F 64°F1007.4 hPa
SSBN7 46 mi88 min 3 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC5 mi57 minWNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds73°F55°F53%1007.1 hPa

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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2 days agoE7E6E7E6E8E5NE7NE6E7E4E5E6E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:30 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.100.30.81.31.71.81.81.61.310.70.3-0-00.40.91.41.71.91.7

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM EDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:25 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 PM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.92.23.44.24.64.74.23.42.61.70.80.10.21.22.53.64.44.84.63.832.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.