Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lompoc, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:54PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:08 AM PST (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 3:32PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 506 Am Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through late Saturday night...
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kt this evening, then to 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt late. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas 11 to 14 ft dominant period 13 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming N 15 to 25 kt late. Combined seas 12 to 15 ft dominant period 11 seconds, subsiding to 11 to 13 ft dominant period 11 seconds after midnight.
Sun..NE to N winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 10 to 12 ft at 11 seconds, subsiding to 8 to 10 ft at 11 seconds in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 11 seconds, subsiding to 6 to 7 ft at 11 seconds after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 506 Am Pst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 10z...or 2 am pst...a 1034 mb high was centered in colorado. A weak trough of low pressure was located across the inner coastal waters. Increasing nw flow is expected in the outer and northern waters tonight into the weekend as high pressure builds into the eastern pacific. Gale force winds are expected across the outer waters late tonight through Sat night. Gusty ne winds are likely near shore from ventura to santa Monica Sat night and Sun. Smoke from the thomas fire may locally reduce visibilities down to 2 nm or less across the E santa barbara channel today.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lompoc, CA
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location: 34.38, -120.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 151235
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
435 am pst Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Gusty offshore winds will begin to diminish later this morning.

However, very dry conditions will persist with above normal
temperatures today. Some cooling is expected this weekend as a
trough moves through the region. There will be a return of
northerly winds on Saturday, then turning into another santa ana
wind event late Saturday night into Sunday. Gradual warming early
next week with weaker offshore winds expected.

Short term (tdy-sun)
latest goes-16 fog product satellite imagery indicated mostly
clear skies with a few variable high clouds racing south around
the eastern pac upper ridge. Also the thomas fire continues to
burn hot across the eastern flank near filmore with a few other
hot spots towards the sba ventura county border. Gusty santa ana
winds were continuing to show gusts around 45 to 50 mph early this
morning, but should decrease rather quickly through the morning
hours as the surface offshore gradient diminishes and upper
support GOES away. Will let the wind advisories expire at 3 am
this morning for the la vtu mountains, santa clarita and the
ventura county valleys with only a few mountain locations
gusting to 45 mph into early this morning.

Synoptically, an upper level disturbance will ride down the
eastern side of the eastern pac upper ridge through california
tonight into Saturday. Earlier models had this shortwave becoming
cutoff across the southern socal bight early Saturday morning,
but the gfs, ECMWF and the high resolution nam-wrf now quickly
move this digging trough towards san diego or baja before it
becomes cutoff Saturday morning into so arizona. Areas to the
south will have the best chance of seeing a few showers develop,
or off the coastal waters of orange county and san diego. But this
is still a slight chance. With the height falls, clouds should
develop tonight across la and vtu counties then clear out by
Saturday afternoon.

The main story for Saturday will be the northerly winds
developing behind the frontal passage. Sundowner winds are
expected to develop by late tonight into Saturday morning. By late
Saturday into Sunday the pattern shifts to a santa ana. For
ventura la counties north to northeast winds will start up during
the day Saturday and increase overnight and peaking Sunday morning
with solid advisory level winds and possibly local gusts to 60
mph in the mountains as good upper support and cold air advection
will enhance this wind event Sunday. The additional cold air
coming in Saturday night and Sunday will more than offset any
warming from the downslope flow so highs at lower elevations
expected to top out in the lower 70s.

Long term (mon-thu)
both the GFS and ECMWF remain in good agreement with large scale
features through the Thursday. Offshore winds will be rather weak
both Monday and Tuesday with a gradual warming trend. By
Wednesday, another upper level trough begins to drop out of the
pac NW and become an inside slider as it moves into the great
basin on Thursday. Both models then retrograde the upper low
towards northern baja by Thursday night. By Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, northerly winds develop affecting the santa
barbara mtns and adjacent south coast as well as the i-5 corridor,
then turn offshore into another santa ana event. The placement of
the upper low over NRN baja and more cold air advection could
bring another strong santa ana wind event. Of course, this
scenario is still several days away, and models can flip-flop like
your buttermilk pancakes, so stay tuned.

Aviation 15 1215z.

At 12z, there was a surface based inversion at klax. The top of the
marine inversion was around 400 ft with a temperature of 23c.

Vfr conds are expected across the areas through early tonight,
except for local MVFR vsbys in smoke in coastal and valley
sections of vtu and sba counties.

Some clouds are expected to develop across coastal and valley
sections of l.A. And vtu counties tonight. There is a 40% chance
that these clouds will be in the MVFR category, and a 20% chance
of they will be in the ifr category.

Gusty NE winds will affect portions of l.A. And vtu counties this
morning, and there may be some llws and moderate uddf through
noon.

Klax... High confidence in the forecast through this midnight
with cavu conditions expected. CIGS are expected to develop late
tonight. There is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGS between 09z and 17z
Saturday, and a 20% chance of ifr cigs.

Kbur... High confidence in the forecast through midnight with cavu
conditions expected. There is 30% chance of moderate low-level
wind shear and turbulence through 18z. CIGS are expected to
develop late tonight. There is a 40% chance of MVFR CIGS after 10z
Saturday, and a 20% chance of ifr cigs.

Marine 15 330 am.

Across the outer waters, fairly good confidence that NW winds
will increase to SCA levels this evening, then to gale force
conditions by late tonight. There is a 30% chance that seas will
build to SCA levels as early as this afternoon, at least across
the northern two thirds of the outer waters. Gale force winds
will continue through late Sat night, then SCA conds will continue
for a few hours thereafter. Seas will possibly remain above sca
thresholds for hazardous seas through around noon Sunday.

Across the inner waters north of point sal, moderate to high
confidence that winds and seas will reach SCA level winds
from late tonight and continue through late Saturday night. There
is a 20-30% chance that SCA conds will arrive before midnight
tonight.

Across the inner waters south of point conception, winds and seas
are expected to be below SCA levels through tue, except for a
40-50% chance of SCA level NE winds late Sat night into sun
morning from ventura to anacapa island south to santa monica,
and possibly from san pedro to catalina island.

There will be areas of smoke from the thomas fire over portions
of the coastal waters today, mainly from the waters west of
ventura county through the santa barbara channel and over the
outer waters. Visibilities could locally drop to 2 nm or
lower at times today.

Fire weather 15 400 am.

Red flag warnings in effect for much of los angeles and ventura
counties through 10 am this morning. Fire weather watch in effect
from late tonight through Saturday evening for the santa barbara
county mountains. Fire weather watch in effect from late Saturday
night through Sunday evening for the los angeles and ventura
county mountains and valleys.

The extended period of offshore flow will continue into this
morning... Focused over los angeles and ventura counties.

The gusty offshore winds will create the potential for
very rapid fire spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire
behavior with existing fires and any new ignitions. The humidities
will remain very dry today with widespread single digit humidities.

This will result in continued critical fire weather this morning.

North to northeast winds gusting to 30 to 40 mph, and possibly
stronger, with continued low humidities, are expected across
the santa barbara county mountains and adjacent foothills late
tonight into Saturday. A fire weather watch remains in effect
in the mountains of santa barbara county. Gusty northerly winds
could surface into the santa barbara county south coast as well,
but at this time, winds are not expected to be strong enough
there to warrant red flag conditions.

For ventura and los angeles counties, the flow may begin to shift
to the northeast during the day Saturday, with a greater threat
of increased santa ana winds and low humidities later Saturday
night into Sunday when gusts between 35 and 55 mph will be
possible. An additional santa ana wind event will be possible
next Thursday into Friday.

Those near current wildfires need to stay aware of and follow
official evacuation orders. Everyone needs to exercise extreme
caution when handling any potential fire ignition sources... Such
as campfires, cigarettes, welding and brush clearing equipment.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from noon today to 9 am pst
Sunday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 10 am pst this morning for
zones 240-241-244>246-253-254-288-547. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from late Saturday night through
Sunday evening for zones 244>246-253-254-288-547. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from late tonight through
Saturday evening for zone 252. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am Saturday to 3 am pst
Sunday for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to 3 am
pst Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 am Saturday to 3 am pst Sunday
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday with gusty north
to northeast winds and very low humidities.

Public... Kaplan
aviation... Db
marine... Db
fire... Gomberg db
synopsis... Kaplan
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 8 mi39 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 59°F 59°F1019.2 hPa
HRVC1 10 mi51 min 65°F 1019.6 hPa
46218 - Harvest, CA (071) 14 mi39 min 60°F8 ft
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 15 mi69 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.0)
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 37 mi39 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 59°F 60°F1019.9 hPa57°F
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 44 mi93 min W 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 1019.4 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 47 mi79 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 59°F8 ft1019.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from LPC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E6E8E9E8SE54--W10NW7NW7NW5SW3CalmCalmE4E5E6E6E6E6E7E8E9
1 day agoE8E7E8E8E7E6CalmW11W9W10W10W9W5CalmE3E6E7E5CalmE4E4E5E4E7
2 days agoE5NE4E5E4E3E3CalmS3SW7W8W9W8CalmCalmE4E7E6E7E8E5E5E6E10E8

Tide / Current Tables for Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project), California
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Oil Platform Harvest (Topex Project)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM PST     1.93 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:34 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:33 AM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM PST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM PST     3.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.2222.53.34.35.25.75.85.24.231.70.6-0.1-0.20.10.91.92.83.43.63.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Arguello, California
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Point Arguello
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:15 AM PST     1.86 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:35 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:39 AM PST     5.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:43 PM PST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:32 PM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:14 PM PST     3.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.922.43.24.14.95.45.554.12.91.60.6-0.1-0.20.20.91.82.73.33.63.53.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.