Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:19 PM PST (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 1:52AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 857 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..E winds 5 to 12 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ600 857 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst, a 1017 mb high 200 nm south of point conception was producing weak onshore flow across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171857
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1057 am pst Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis 17 902 am.

Onshore flow will bring cooler weather to the entire region
today. Temperatures will be near normal in most areas Sunday. A
brief period of offshore flow may bring some warming on Monday.

Cooler weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, with below
normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A couple of upper
level troughs moving into the west coast could bring some rain to
portions of the region at times Wednesday into Friday.

Short term (tdy-mon) 17 916 am.

***update***
very challenging sky forecast today. Waves of high clouds will be
streaming through today, leading to sometimes sunny skies and
sometimes cloudy. Went with partly cloudy in general to simplify
it all. Some low clouds and fog exists, but it is very difficult
to see them on satellite because of those high clouds. On the
central coast, some of that fog is dense with very low
visibility. Elsewhere there are a lot of reports of reduced
visibility owing to haze, possibly enhanced by some smoke. It
seems like the low clouds are very patchy in coverage over land,
and a little more organized over the waters. This lends to the
possibility of low clouds advancing into coastal areas later this
afternoon as the seabreeze picks up, but again it will be hard to
see under the high clouds. The other aspects of the forecast look
good, with temperatures down about 5 degrees from yesterday and
falling just below normal for the first time in awhile. Winds will
be light, except for some onshore breezes over interior areas.

***from previous discussion***
even if low clouds clear everywhere today, they will likely push
into coastal areas fairly early tonight. Low level gradients turn
weakly offshore late tonight, and models show somewhat less inland
penetration of low clouds tonight. Still expect widespread low
clouds in all coastal areas and probably at least the lower
valleys tonight. Expect faster clearing of the low clouds on
Sunday, although there will be plenty of high clouds across the
region. Height rises and weak offshore flow may help to induce
slight warming on Sunday, especially if the high clouds thin out
enough.

Gradients will become increasingly offshore Sunday night and early
mon, probably enough to produce some locally gusty winds across
portions of l.A. And vtu counties. At this point, do not expect
winds to get even close to advisory levels. All models show an
upper low approaching the region from the west Mon afternoon,
which should be centered about 300 miles SW of pt. Conception late
in the day. There should be a good amount of high and possibly mid
level clouds across the region on mon, but all models keep any
rain south and west of the forecast area. This makes sense,
especially given the offshore flow which will cause downsloping
and drying of the lower levels of the atmosphere. MAX temps will
be tricky on mon. Heights and thicknesses fall in the afternoon,
but offshore flow should offset this. In fact, there could even be
some warming on mon, but only if mid and high level clouds are
not too thick.

Long term (tue-fri) 17 438 am.

The upper low will pass to the south of the region Mon night and
tue morning. All models keep any rain to the south of the region
mon night and Tuesday morning. Mostly cloudy skies Mon night
should give way to partly cloudy conditions on tue. Falling
heights and thicknesses, along with a return to onshore flow
should bring some cooling to most areas on tue.

Lots of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Tue as models continue
to disagree with each other and change from run to run with the
timing and strength of a couple of fast moving systems pushing
into the west coast. A broad trough will move into the eastern
pacific Tue night and early wed. The ec is significantly stronger
with this system, and brings rain to areas north of pt.

Conception Wed morning, with rain possibly spreading southward
into l.A. County late Wed into Wed night. Both the ec and the gfs
keep moist broadly cyclonic flow across the region thu, with a
slight chance of rain or showers, especially north of pt.

Conception. Another trough will swing into the pac NW on fri, and
while most of the rain should remain north of the region, there
should still be a slight chance of rain or showers across the
region into fri.

At this point, the threat of any heavy rain looks minimal through
fri. However, the ec does show some decent moisture and lift wed
afternoon into early Wed night, so that threat can not be ruled
out entirely. As we get closer to this event, details on the
timing of any rain, rainfall amounts, and the potential threat of
heavier rainfall should come into sharper focus. Temperatures
will likely be below normal across the region Wed thru fri.

Aviation 17 1857z.

At 1730z, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 16c.

Made some changes to the TAF package at 18z. Model data was
hinting at the marine clouds arriving earlier than forecast in
many coastal sections. Also, it appears that due to calm to light
winds, the marine influence was overperforming in terms of lower
visibilities ceilings. Therefore, the tafs were tweaked toward
ifr or lifr tonight. Finally, a tough call on the valley tafs. It
now looks likely that the marine clouds will return to kbur kvny,
but it is not a sure thing.

Klax... Moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30 percent
chc of lifr conditions. There is a 20 percent chc of east winds
8-9kt Sun morning.

Kbur... Low confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30-40 percent
chance that marine clouds will not make it to the airfield.

Marine 17 900 am.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least Tuesday. Patchy dense fog will be possible
anywhere through this weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Rain is possible for the middle to end of next week. There is a
small possibility of moderate rainfall over recent burn areas
leading to minor debris flows.

Public... Kittell db
aviation... Sweet
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Db sirard
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi43 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1017.7 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi28 min 64°F3 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi29 min E 3.9 G 7.8 64°F 65°F3 ft1017.7 hPa60°F
46251 44 mi19 min 66°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi26 minS 75.00 miFair with Haze65°F55°F73%1017 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi28 minSSW 57.00 miFair65°F55°F73%1017 hPa

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Last 24hr4SW53S3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmE3NE4NE5E3NE5NE5SE7S7S7
1 day agoSW6SW9W9W9W5N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE5S6S6
2 days agoSW9W10W11W8W9W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SW5W7

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.