Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 6:37 AM PDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:46PMMoonset 9:05AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 231 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 12 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tonight..W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 11 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ600 231 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1032 mb high was 600 nm west of eureka and a 998 mb low was near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 221039
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
339 am pdt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis 22 253 am.

A cool, showery, and unsettled weather pattern will continue into
early next week as a broad trough of low pressure remains over
the region.

Short term (tdy-fri) 22 328 am.

A cold trough of low pressure continues to dig south out of
northern california this morning. Shower activity is streaming
into the northern slopes of the mountains and into the central
coast early this morning. The trough center located just east of
the san francisco bay will dig rapidly south to western los
angeles county by this afternoon then into eastern riverside and
imperial counties by this evening.

All model solutions show a 500 mb cold pocket near -25 degrees
celsius moving over the area today. Model soundings suggest an
unstable profile to work with later today as the cold pocket
streams south into san luis obispo county just after daybreak this
morning, then the cold pocket will drop through eastern santa
barbara county late this morning, and western ventura and los
angeles counties this afternoon. Pops were increased over the
previous forecast and a slight chance of thunderstorms was added
to mainly san luis obispo and santa barbara counties this morning,
and mainly ventura and los angeles counties this afternoon.

Rainfall amounts will be quite variable as the system is
convective in nature. Some areas will see little rainfall, while
other areas could see amounts up to a quarter inch or so. 700 mb
temperatures dip to -8 degrees celsius just north of the area.

Some models show a bit of colder air sneaking into the eastern san
luis obispo and eastern santa barbara counties later this
morning. Snow levels should fall to between 4500 and 5500 feet
this morning, lowest over the previously mentioned areas. Snow
impacts should minimal as accumulating snowfall should not impact
the grapevine and highway 33, but a wintry mix cannot be ruled
out, especially with any convective bursts that could develop as
the 500 mb cold pocket shifts south.

A wind advisory remains in effect across portions of the area this
morning. High resolution models solutions suggest winds dropping
off some after daybreak, but wind observations and surface
pressure gradients observations will be monitored closely.

Broad troughing will remain in place through at least Friday.

Another disturbance located over the montana-idaho border will
rotate west and around the broader circulation. Pops were
increased between Thursday and Friday as another weak disturbance
will move over the region. This storm system will bring much less
potential for rain and mountain snow relative to today's storm.

Long term (sat-tue) 22 338 am.

A storm system in the gulf of alaska will move south out of canada
on Friday, then dig south into southern california over the
weekend. A cool and showery weather pattern looks to continue
between Saturday and memorial day, with the air mass clearing our
throughout the day on memorial day. Model solutions suggest this
trough not being as cold as today's trough, but its tracks still
could bring rain and mountain snow to the region. Snow levels will
likely fall to between 6000 and 7000 feet with this system. Pops
have been tweaked slightly to fall inline with the latest gefs
solutions.

Gefs solutions suggest a drying trend developing for the remainder
of next week. The operational GFS solution indicates ridging
aloft building in over the area for the middle portion of next
week, which could bring warmer temperatures to the region.

Forecast guidance values give a wide variance of expected outcomes
as the ECMWF model holds onto troughing along the california
coast. The forecast leans towards drier weather for now, but
temperatures take a more middle of the road approach.

Aviation 22 1027z.

At 1015z, there was no marine inversion at klax. However, there
was a moist layer up to 8000 feet.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12z TAF package. Deep moist layer
and some instability will generate bkn-ovc skies for all sites
through early this evening. Generally, CIGS are expected to remain
atVFR levels, but there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR CIGS at all
sites through this evening. Additionally, there will be a threat
of scattered showers through this evening with the best chances
north of point conception. Also, there will be the possibility of
isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon at all terminal
sites.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGS 12z-02z. There is a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms
20z-00z. For tonight, low confidence in potential return of MVFR
cigs.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGS 12z-02z. There is a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms
20z-00z.

Marine 22 327 am.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Both
winds and seas will remain at small craft advisory (sca) levels
today and tonight. On Thursday, the winds and seas will begin to
diminish, dropping below SCA levels. For Friday through Sunday,
winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

For the inner waters north of point sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds will reach SCA levels this afternoon and
evening while seas remain at SCA levels through tonight. On
Thursday, winds and seas will drop below SCA levels with
conditions remaining below SCA levels through Sunday.

For the inner waters south of point conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds will remain at SCA levels through tonight.

For Thursday through Sunday, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels.

For today, a cold and unstable air mass will bring the threat of
isolated thunderstorms to all coastal waters. Gusty and erratic
winds, steep short-period seas, brief heavy rain and lightning
will be potential threats.

Beaches 22 327 am.

Another large northwest swell will move through the coastal
waters today. High surf is expected along west and northwest
facing beaches across the central coast and a high surf advisory
remains in effect through tonight. South of point conception,
above normal surf and dangerous rip currents are expected,
especially for the beaches of ventura and los angeles counties.

Therefore, a beach hazards statement remains in effect for the
beaches of ventura and los angeles counties through tonight.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 5 am pdt Thursday for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 6 am pdt early this morning for
zones 39-52>54. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through late tonight for
zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Thursday for
zones 645-650-655-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
Another storm system could bring rain, mountain snow and gusty
winds to the region Saturday through Monday.

Public... Hall
aviation... Rat
marine... Rat
beaches... Rat
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi61 min W 8 G 14 54°F 1007.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi37 min WNW 21 G 25 55°F 1008.3 hPa (-0.4)52°F
46251 44 mi37 min 56°F8 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi44 minNW 17 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F41°F59%1007.3 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi46 minNW 13 G 1910.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1005.6 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW3E6W10W11NW14
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1 day agoW13
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W15NW15
G22
N83W7W43N63S3SW6CalmNW5
2 days agoE3CalmS4S8S6SW6SW6W12SW10W16
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NW11NW10NW10CalmW7SW7N5CalmNW6NW6W6

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.