Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 1:02 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 201 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 16 2024
Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming se. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. S swell 2 ft in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Fri - Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. S swell 2 ft in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Fri night - W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Sun - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.

PZZ600 201 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 16 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 20z, or 1 pm pdt, a 1034 mb high was about 300 nm W of portland and a 1014 mb low was centered near needles, ca with a trough of low pressure extending along the sw ca coast.

FXUS66 KLOX 162125 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 225 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
16/212 AM.

Dry and warmer conditions will prevail across the region this week and through the weekend. Low clouds and fog should also affect portions of the coast and valleys during the night and morning hours through the period.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...16/225 PM.

Synoptically, the area is under an EastPac ridge pushing 580 dam (ish) heights over the area while most of the CONUS is in a deep trough around a low near Minnesota. In the next 24 hours the pattern over us will become zonal and then develop into a slight trough. By Saturday the ridge should return, although weaker than it is today. By midweek a trough begins to drop down the Pacific coast associated with a Gulf of Alaska low that may actually bring a little more rain to the area mid week.

Max temps rose 6 to 12 to locally 15 degrees today as the result of a combination of April sunshine, offshore flow, and rising hgts. The offshore flow will relax tonight and the low cloud pattern will likely reform across the Central Coast and the Salinas River vly. Low clouds are also probably going to be over the Oxnard plain.

Skies will be sunny on Wednesday save for the low clouds which will not last past mid morning. The offshore will be weaker and this will allow for an earlier seabreeze which will bring 2 to 4 degrees of cooling to the csts/vlys. Hgts will rise another 2 or 3 dam as the ridge peaks and this will lead to another 3 to 6 degrees of warming across the mtns and far interior.

On Thursday the ridge will move to the east and a weak trof cover the area, bringing enough mid and high level clouds to make the day a mostly cloudy one. The lifting heights along with a sharp increase in onshore flow to the east will bring low clouds to the coasts and most of the vlys. The afternoon onshore push to the east is fcst to be near 7 mb and its likely that the low clouds will not clear many coastal areas. Look for 4 to 8 degrees of cooling across the board - this will bring the csts and vlys max temps down below normals. The mtns and the far interior, however, will remain likely above normal. Max temps across the csts and vlys will end up in the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

Weak troffing will persist over the area on Friday. There will be another round of morning low clouds across the coasts and most of the vlys. There will be weaker onshore flow in the afternoon and this will allow for better clearing. The mid and high clouds will also be past the area so there will be much more sunshine. The lower hgts will serve to cool the area but the sunnier skies and weaker onshore flow will counteract this cooling. The end result is that there will be hodge-podge of warming and cooling across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...16/224 PM.

Model solutions are in good agreement in the long term. There should be a warming trend Sat and Sun as the ridge reestablishes itself. The onshore flow will relax even becoming offshore from the north on Sunday. The amount of morning low clouds will subside and Sunday may well end up cloud free. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees each day. By Sunday cst/vly max temps will end up 2 to 4 degrees above normal while the mtns and far interior will be 5 to 10 degree warmer than normal. Almost all of the vlys will see temps in the 80s.

The marine layer is expected to deepen by Mon as the ridge weakens, and onshore flow increases, cooling temps to several degrees below normal for the coast and vlys while the interior will remain above normal. Most max temps will come in within 2 degrees of Thursday's values.

Some ensemble solutions have a 20% chance of 0.1" of rain on Tuesday as the trough deepens, but there isn't enough of a signal for the NBM to catch on to it yet. There is a better, but still small, chance for rain (only about 0.1") later in the week as the 10-day outlooks indicate a trough will drop down the coast from a Gulf of Alaska low.

AVIATION
16/1829Z.

At 17Z, there was a weak marine inversion at KLAX at about 1500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2800 ft with a temp of 16 deg C.

Generally hi confidence in the 18Z TAFs for most airfields with VFR conds expected thru the fcst period.

However, for KPRB there is moderate confidence low clouds and LIFR conds will develop there late tonight and persist until about 17Z Wed. For KLAX and KLGB, there is moderate confidence that MVFR cigs will develop late tonight and lingering into Wed morning. The timing of any low clouds may be off +/- an hour or so.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 18Z TAF. There is a 40%-50% chance of MVFR cigs about 12Z-16Z Wed. Otherwise VFR conds will prevail. Any east wind component should remain less than 6 knots.

KBUR...High confidence in the 18Z TAF with VFR conds thru the pd.

MARINE
16/156 PM.

Generally high confidence in the current forecast.

In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and steep seas will continue thru late tonight, then SCA conds are not expected Wednesday through Friday. There is then a 40%-50% chance of SCA conds Friday night through Sunday.

In the inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA conds are not expected through Sunday, except there is a 20%-30% chance of SCA wind gusts at times especially evening hours Friday through Sunday.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA level W-NW winds in the western SBA Channel this evening.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected through Sunday.

BEACHES
16/528 AM.

A long-period southerly swell will push into the coastal waters tonight thru Wed night, and may bring low end high surf conds to S facing beaches. There is a 30% chance of high surf of 4-7 ft on S facing beaches of L.A. County Wed/Wed night.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

toggle option: (graph/table)

Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California, Tide feet

Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Los Angeles, CA,