Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:39PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:57 AM PDT (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:14AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 838 Am Pdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Local gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 838 Am Pdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z...or 8 am pdt...a 1027 mb surface high was centered about 950 nm W of san francisco and a 1007 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 211606
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
906 am pdt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
A weak trough of low pressure over the channel islands will
continue to keep a cooler than normal air mass in place through
midweek. Night and morning coastal low clouds will continue
through late week as the trough exits the region on Wednesday and
high pressure aloft builds in for late week. A significant warming
trend is possible for next weekend.

Short term (tdy-wed)
deep marine layer continues this morning, between 2500 and 3000',
so model soundings from yesterday showing 1000' of lowering
definitely didn't pan out. However, models did correctly show a
decent offshore trend this morning and that is helping to initiate
a pretty rapid clearing trend across la ventura counties. Coastal
areas and central coast may still struggle to clear by eclipse
time.

Models also showing a little instability and moisture across the
sb mountains and far interior slo county near the kern county
line.

***from previous discussion***
onshore flow will weaken over the next 24 hours and the marine
layer depth will thin as the trough of low pressure retrogrades
west. The trough center will wobble through the santa barbara
channel later this morning and retrograde off the coast to about
325 miles west of los angeles, or near 34n and 124w by Tuesday
morning. As the trough retrogrades, the marine intrusion will get
pulled back and start to recede through Tuesday. The best estimates
put the marine layer depth between 1000-1500 feet by Tuesday
morning, but low confidence should exercised in this pattern. The
trough will start to advance again across the offshore and coastal
waters early Wednesday morning, and likely move onshore near
point mugu early Wednesday morning. Gradients should start to
become strongly onshore for Wednesday as the trough moves over the
area.

Long term (thu-sun)
a significant pattern change is taking shape for late next week.

Model solutions are coming into agreement for a significant
warming trend after Thursday, peaking over the weekend and into
early next week. The forecast takes a warm stance over forecast
guidance as models increase 950 mb temperatures over the weekend.

Strong high pressure over the southeast united states today will
recenter into the desert southwest by the latter half of the week.

500 mb heights will start to climb substantially over southern
california between Friday and Sunday as the ridge center moves
from the bootheel of new mexico into western nevada. The forecast
leans the direction local temperatures studies, going up to 5
degrees over forecast guidance. The ridge position would also be
consistent for a monsoonal flow pattern to setup early next week.

Aviation 21 1010z...

at 1000z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 2800 feet. The
top of the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 19
degrees celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 12z TAF package. MVFR conditions
across most coastal valley sites, except ifr conditions at kprb.

Expect these CIGS to dissipate around 17z across the valleys and
between 18z-22z for coastal sites. For tonight, inversion should
be a bit more shallow, but MVFR ifr CIGS will still develop across
coastal valley sites.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 30% chance that
MVFR CIGS could linger until 20z. For tonight, return of MVFR
conditions could be + - 2 hours of current 02z forecast.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 12z taf. There is a 30% chance that
MVFR CIGS could linger until 19z. For tonight, return of ifr cigs
could be + - 2 hours of current 07z forecast.

Marine 21 900 am...

for the outer waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.

Through Tuesday night, winds and seas will remain below small
craft advisory (sca) levels. On Wednesday afternoon, there is a
60% chance of SCA level winds developing. For Thursday and
Friday, the winds will continue to increase with SCA level winds
likely.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. For the
waters north of point sal, winds and seas will remain below sca
levels through Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, SCA level winds
are likely each afternoon and evening. For the waters south of
point conception, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
a significant heatwave could develop this upcoming weekend and
continue into early next week.

Public... Mw hall
aviation... Thompson
marine... Eb
synopsis... Jll
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi81 min E 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1016.7 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi27 min 66°F2 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi27 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 65°F1017.2 hPa62°F
46251 44 mi36 min 65°F3 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi64 minSE 610.00 miOvercast69°F59°F70%1016.4 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi66 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F59°F64%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6S5S7S7SW8SW7W9W8W10W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSE3Calm3E4E3SE6
1 day agoSW6S666SW8SW8W10--W10W9W6W5W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE5E3E5SE7
2 days agoSE8SE7S7W7W9W10W10W9W4CalmSE4SE4E6E8SE7E5E5E5SE5E5SE4SE4SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM PDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM PDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM PDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:52 PM PDT     1.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:48 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:01 PM PDT     6.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.12.40.7-0.5-1-0.70.31.63.14.24.94.94.33.32.31.51.31.72.63.95.26.26.66.2

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:10 AM PDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM PDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:31 AM PDT     New Moon
Mon -- 03:51 PM PDT     1.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:06 PM PDT     6.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.32.61-0.2-0.6-0.40.41.62.93.94.54.64.23.42.51.81.622.845.166.46.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.