Marine Weather and Tides
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.
|Sunrise 6:33AM||Sunset 4:54PM||Saturday November 17, 2018 12:19 PM PST (20:19 UTC)||Moonrise 3:04PM||Moonset 1:52AM||Illumination 73%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus66 klox 171857|
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1057 am pst Sat nov 17 2018
Synopsis 17 902 am.
Onshore flow will bring cooler weather to the entire region
today. Temperatures will be near normal in most areas Sunday. A
brief period of offshore flow may bring some warming on Monday.
Cooler weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, with below
normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A couple of upper
level troughs moving into the west coast could bring some rain to
portions of the region at times Wednesday into Friday.
Short term (tdy-mon) 17 916 am.
very challenging sky forecast today. Waves of high clouds will be
streaming through today, leading to sometimes sunny skies and
sometimes cloudy. Went with partly cloudy in general to simplify
it all. Some low clouds and fog exists, but it is very difficult
to see them on satellite because of those high clouds. On the
central coast, some of that fog is dense with very low
visibility. Elsewhere there are a lot of reports of reduced
visibility owing to haze, possibly enhanced by some smoke. It
seems like the low clouds are very patchy in coverage over land,
and a little more organized over the waters. This lends to the
possibility of low clouds advancing into coastal areas later this
afternoon as the seabreeze picks up, but again it will be hard to
see under the high clouds. The other aspects of the forecast look
good, with temperatures down about 5 degrees from yesterday and
falling just below normal for the first time in awhile. Winds will
be light, except for some onshore breezes over interior areas.
***from previous discussion***
even if low clouds clear everywhere today, they will likely push
into coastal areas fairly early tonight. Low level gradients turn
weakly offshore late tonight, and models show somewhat less inland
penetration of low clouds tonight. Still expect widespread low
clouds in all coastal areas and probably at least the lower
valleys tonight. Expect faster clearing of the low clouds on
Sunday, although there will be plenty of high clouds across the
region. Height rises and weak offshore flow may help to induce
slight warming on Sunday, especially if the high clouds thin out
Gradients will become increasingly offshore Sunday night and early
mon, probably enough to produce some locally gusty winds across
portions of l.A. And vtu counties. At this point, do not expect
winds to get even close to advisory levels. All models show an
upper low approaching the region from the west Mon afternoon,
which should be centered about 300 miles SW of pt. Conception late
in the day. There should be a good amount of high and possibly mid
level clouds across the region on mon, but all models keep any
rain south and west of the forecast area. This makes sense,
especially given the offshore flow which will cause downsloping
and drying of the lower levels of the atmosphere. MAX temps will
be tricky on mon. Heights and thicknesses fall in the afternoon,
but offshore flow should offset this. In fact, there could even be
some warming on mon, but only if mid and high level clouds are
not too thick.
Long term (tue-fri) 17 438 am.
The upper low will pass to the south of the region Mon night and
tue morning. All models keep any rain to the south of the region
mon night and Tuesday morning. Mostly cloudy skies Mon night
should give way to partly cloudy conditions on tue. Falling
heights and thicknesses, along with a return to onshore flow|
should bring some cooling to most areas on tue.
Lots of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Tue as models continue
to disagree with each other and change from run to run with the
timing and strength of a couple of fast moving systems pushing
into the west coast. A broad trough will move into the eastern
pacific Tue night and early wed. The ec is significantly stronger
with this system, and brings rain to areas north of pt.
Conception Wed morning, with rain possibly spreading southward
into l.A. County late Wed into Wed night. Both the ec and the gfs
keep moist broadly cyclonic flow across the region thu, with a
slight chance of rain or showers, especially north of pt.
Conception. Another trough will swing into the pac NW on fri, and
while most of the rain should remain north of the region, there
should still be a slight chance of rain or showers across the
region into fri.
At this point, the threat of any heavy rain looks minimal through
fri. However, the ec does show some decent moisture and lift wed
afternoon into early Wed night, so that threat can not be ruled
out entirely. As we get closer to this event, details on the
timing of any rain, rainfall amounts, and the potential threat of
heavier rainfall should come into sharper focus. Temperatures
will likely be below normal across the region Wed thru fri.
Aviation 17 1857z.
At 1730z, the marine layer was 1500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 2700 feet with a temperature of 16c.
Made some changes to the TAF package at 18z. Model data was
hinting at the marine clouds arriving earlier than forecast in
many coastal sections. Also, it appears that due to calm to light
winds, the marine influence was overperforming in terms of lower
visibilities ceilings. Therefore, the tafs were tweaked toward
ifr or lifr tonight. Finally, a tough call on the valley tafs. It
now looks likely that the marine clouds will return to kbur kvny,
but it is not a sure thing.
Klax... Moderate confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30 percent
chc of lifr conditions. There is a 20 percent chc of east winds
8-9kt Sun morning.
Kbur... Low confidence in the 18z taf. There is a 30-40 percent
chance that marine clouds will not make it to the airfield.
Marine 17 900 am.
High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least Tuesday. Patchy dense fog will be possible
anywhere through this weekend.
Lox watches warnings advisories
Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Rain is possible for the middle to end of next week. There is a
small possibility of moderate rainfall over recent burn areas
leading to minor debris flows.
Public... Kittell db
synopsis... Db sirard
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340||9 mi||43 min||SE 2.9 G 4.1||63°F||1017.7 hPa|
|46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111)||17 mi||28 min||64°F||3 ft|
|46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA||20 mi||29 min||E 3.9 G 7.8||64°F||65°F||3 ft||1017.7 hPa||60°F|
|46251||44 mi||19 min||66°F||3 ft|
Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA||16 mi||26 min||S 7||5.00 mi||Fair with Haze||65°F||55°F||73%||1017 hPa|
|Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA||22 mi||28 min||SSW 5||7.00 mi||Fair||65°F||55°F||73%||1017 hPa|
Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW||SW||W||W||W||N||NE||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||Calm||SE||S||S|
|2 days ago||SW||W||W||W||W||W||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SW||W |
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GOES Local Image of Southwest EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop
Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (15,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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