Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carpinteria, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday June 24, 2017 12:11 AM PDT (07:11 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 809 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt...becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft late in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 9 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 3 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 6 seconds.
Sun night..Western portion...w winds 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion...w winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 6 seconds.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon night..Western portion...nw winds 20 to 25 kt. Eastern portion...w winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 809 Pm Pdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...a 1014 mb surface high centered 200 nm southwest of point conception will build over the offshore waters through the weekend, while a 1002 mb thermal low centered near las vegas remains nearly stationary. Winds will increase through the weekend with small craft advisory conditions possible across the outer coastal waters as early as Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carpinteria, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 240621
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
1121 pm pdt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over southern
arizona will continue to bring very warm conditions away from the
coast into next week. Subtropical moisture could bring a few
elevated showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, otherwise
night through morning low clouds and fog will continue into next
week. High pressure aloft will weaken Tuesday and a cooling trend
should develop as onshore flow increases.

Short term (fri-mon)
a ridge of high pressure remains centered over southern arizona
this evening. A very warm air mass will remain in place over the
next couple of days as the ridge will dominate the weather
pattern. Near record heat continued across the interior portions
of the area. Current heat headlines look agreeable and will be
continued at this time.

An entrenched stratus deck continues to hug the coast this
evening, but confidence in the marine layer stratus becomes lower
as the middle and high level moisture moves north out of baja
california. The middle and high level cloudiness could play tricks
on the marine layer over the next 24 hours or so, messing with
the marine inversion and weakening it. Some scouring could occur
as the cloudiness moves over the area.

The moisture will continue to move north out of the subtropics
into the region over through Saturday morning. Due to the height
of the moisture, any convection could be high-based and produce
dry thunderstorms. Pops are agreeable with the pattern as the
storm will likely move rapidly and not produce much measurable
rainfall. Best convective parameters are offshore, but showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over mainly san luis obispo and
santa barbara counties into Saturday. Some lightning strikes are
still occurring along the back edge of the moisture off the baja
california coast.

An update will be issued to tweak stratus coverage into Saturday
morning.

*** from previous discussion ***
air mass stabilizes through the day Saturday so the dry lightning
potential has been confined to the night and early morning hours.

This feature is gone by Sunday leaving behind a warmer air mass
and continued northerly flow at the surface. So temps expected to
warm a couple more degrees Sunday which should be the highest of
the next several days.

Sundowner winds expected to start developing as early as this
evening in the SRN sb area but stronger Saturday and Sunday
evenings. May be borderline advisory level there. Some winds also
through the i-5 corridor but below advisory levels.

A slight cooling trend is expected Monday as a weak trough moves
into or and NRN ca. This will knock the ridge down and cool most
areas by at least a few degrees.

Long term (tue-fri)
both the GFS and ec in pretty good agreement through about
Thursday showing a trough developing along the west coast next
week. While the patterns are similar the ECMWF now has trended
slightly cooler than the gfs. So while the magnitude of cooling
may not be entirely certain, confidence is high that a cooling
trend will begin Monday and continue through Thursday. At that
point models both show the ridge returning through next weekend,
though somewhat stronger warmer on the gfs. Expecting highs to
return to normal levels by Tue or wed, then slightly below normal
thu before warming again Friday. Marine lyr will become more
expansive especially by around mid week and again clear to near
the beaches.

Aviation
24 0600z
at 0546z at klax, the marine layer depth was around 1100 feet.

The top of the inversion was around 4200 feet with a temperature
near 29 degrees celsius.

Only moderate confidence in coastal tafs as mid level clouds could
disrupt the low clouds leading toVFR conds. There is 40 percent
chc that low clouds will not reach kvny and kbur. There is a 30
percent chc that TAF sites with no afternoon clearing forecast
will clear by 22z. Low confidence in low clouds redevelopment
after 00z for all coastal tafs.

Klax... Moderate confidence in taf. There is a 10 percent chc of
clearing by 14z. There is a 30 percent chc that there will be
clearing by 22z. Low confidence in TAF after 00z with a 40 percent
chc ofVFR conds. For west departures through 12z there is a 20
percent chc of lightning 120 nm west of the terminal.

Kbur... Low confidence in TAF through 17z. There is a 40 percent
chc of no low clouds tonight. Good confidence in TAF after 17z.

Marine
23 900 pm.

Winds will gradually increase through the weekend, increasing
above small craft advisory levels between late tonight and
Saturday afternoon across the outer and northern waters. Small
craft advisory will likely need to be extended through Monday.

Across the inner waters, there is a 30 percent chance of small
craft advisory level winds developing each afternoon and evening,
increasing to 50 percent Sunday afternoon through Monday. Local
gusts up to 25 kt will continue across the santa barbara channel
and near the channel islands.

A short-period west to northwest swell with a period around 6
seconds could impact the coastal waters between Monday and
Wednesday. A mix of short-period seas and or winds could develop
across the entire coastal waters into midweek next week.

Otherwise, a 2-3 foot south swell with a 16-17 second period will
last through Saturday and may pose a risk for breaking waves
nearshore. People boating or kayaking near shore should use extra
caution.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Heat advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Sunday for zones
38-52>54. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Saturday evening
for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Excessive heat warning in effect until 9 pm pdt Sunday for
zone 59. (see laxnpwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm to 9 pm pdt Saturday
for zone 645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 pm Saturday to 3 am pdt
Sunday for zone 670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am Saturday to 3 am pdt
Sunday for zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Hall mw
aviation... Rorke
marine... Hall
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 9 mi42 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 1013.2 hPa
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 17 mi42 min 64°F3 ft
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 20 mi32 min SW 12 G 16 58°F 63°F1013.5 hPa58°F
46251 44 mi51 min 64°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA16 mi79 minSE 710.00 miFair60°F57°F93%1012.3 hPa
Oxnard, Oxnard Airport, CA22 mi81 minW 810.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1012.6 hPa

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Last 24hrW3W4W4W4W4--W4W5W4W5W5W8W9SW9W10W11W13
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1 day agoSE3SE3CalmS3SE3S4SE4S4S6E7SE11SE12SE12SE12SE10S9S7SW5W6W7W6W4W5W4
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7W5S6SW8W7SW6S6SW44SE5S4CalmCalmS3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:43 AM PDT     -1.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:46 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:13 AM PDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:06 PM PDT     1.73 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:22 PM PDT     6.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.831-0.5-1.5-1.7-1.101.52.83.84.34.13.52.721.722.73.95.26.36.96.8

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:47 AM PDT     -1.39 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:27 AM PDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:02 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:58 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:23 PM PDT     6.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.21.4-0.2-1.2-1.4-0.90.11.42.63.6443.62.92.32.12.334.15.36.36.86.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.