Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:19PM Thursday October 19, 2017 8:21 PM PDT (03:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:55AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 818 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Friday night...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 7 seconds. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 35 kt becoming 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 15 to 25 kt with local gusts to 30 kt becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 17 seconds.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft.
PZZ600 818 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z...or 8 pm pdt...a 1026 mb high was located 500 nm west of point conception and a 1012 mb thermal low was near las vegas. Gale force winds are likely across the outer water late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 200029 aaa
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
529 pm pdt Thu oct 19 2017

Updated aviation discussion...

Synopsis
An upper-level trough of low pressure will brush the area through
Friday night. Showers could develop over the mountains and along
the central coast tonight through Friday. Winds will increase
through Friday night as a weak cold front moves over the region,
then santa ana winds will likely develop between Saturday and
Sunday. A significant warming trend is expected for early next
week. Record heat is forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

Short term (tdy-sun)
west-east onshore gradients continue to increase and we're
starting to see some gusty winds developing in the antelope
valley. At the same time a tight north south gradient continues
across the santa ynez range and although upper support isn't quite
as good as last night gradients are similar and we should expect
to see at least low end advisory level sundowner winds there again
tonight.

The remainder of the forecast is more or less unchanged. A rapidly
deepening marine layer up to around 4000' is expected tonight as
a dying cold front approaches. Some spotty drizzle is possible
late tonight and early Friday. The front itself will continue to
weaken but may squeeze out some light measurable amounts (trace
to a few hundredths) north of pt conception. Behind the front
Friday skies will clear pretty rapidly with a strong
west northwest push, likely generating advisory level winds in the
antelope valley and breezy conditions along the coastal areas.

More sundowner winds for the sb area Friday evening, likely a
little stronger and more widespread as winds start to shift to the
northeast. A cooler day with temps dropping an additional 2-5
degrees or so for coast valleys and 10-20 degrees for the mtns and
antelope valley.

Santa ana's return over the weekend, likely below advisory levels
for most areas but could see some brief advisory level gusts in
the mountains. A rapid climb in temps, especially coast valleys
with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday.

Long term (mon-thu)
offshore gradients will continue to strengthen early next week,
peaking Tuesday morning in the 5-7mb range (lax-dag). At the same
time a strong ridge of high pressure will develop over the west
coast with 597dm center over northern california. There's a little
better upper support than what we saw with the event earlier this
week so surface winds may be a touch stronger. This is also a
warmer air mass than what we saw before so with the downslope
winds we should easily see temps reaching 100 degrees across a
pretty wide area in la and ventura counties with the warmest day
being Tuesday. Expect plenty of high temperature records to fall
those two days. Though it's a little ways out yet confidence in
this event is high enough to go with an excessive heat watch for
the la ventura coast valleys and the southern santa barbara
county coast Mon tue.

Gradients and the ridge weaken Wednesday which will finally bring
some relief but temperatures will still be well above normal.

Aviation 20 0025z...

at 2337z, there was no marine inversion present at klax.

Moderate confidence overall in the 00z tafs. Low clouds and MVFR
cigs are forecast to develop tonight for most of the airfields then
persist into Fri morning before improving toVFR CIGS late fri
morning to early Fri afternoon then scattering out in the afternoon.

However, the low clouds may lower to ifr for a while at ksmx and
possibly ksbp late this evening and overnight. The timing of the
onset of the MVFR CIGS and improvement toVFR may be off + - an hour
or two.

For ksba, kwjf and kpmd, generally hi confidence inVFR conditions
thru Fri afternoon. However, there is a 20-30 percent chance
ifr MVFR vsbys due to blowing dusty and very strong W winds at kpmd
and kwjf on fri. Otherwise, gusty winds will persist at these
airfields thru this evening before diminishing some overnight. For
ksba, low level wind shear is expected at times this evening
due to gusty N canyon winds in the vicinity.

Klax... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z taf. Low clouds and
MVFR CIGS are forecast to develop around 05z then improve toVFR
cigs around 20z fri. The timing of the onset of the MVFR CIGS and
improvement toVFR may be off + - an hour or two.VFR conditions
will then prevail thru Fri evening. Gusty W winds can be expected by
fri afternoon.

Kbur... Moderate confidence overall in the 00z taf. Low clouds and
MVFR CIGS are forecast to develop around 09z then improve toVFR
cigs around 14z fri. The timing of the onset of the MVFR CIGS and
improvement toVFR may be off + - an hour or two.VFR conditions
will then prevail thru Fri afternoon.

Marine 19 130 pm...

for the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small
craft advisory (sca) level winds or greater will continue through
Sunday and possibly into Monday. A gale warning has been issued
for late Friday afternoon through late Friday night. There is a 30
percent chance winds remain below gale criteria for the outer
waters north of point sal.

For the inner waters, moderate confidence current forecast. For
the waters north of point sal, a gale warning has been issued for
late Friday afternoon through late Friday evening. There is a
30 percent chance winds remain below gale criteria. For the
waters south of point conception, SCA level winds are likely from
this afternoon through Friday night, strongest across western
sections of the southern inner waters.

A large storm off western canada has generated 40 foot seas in
that area. This has produced a large long-period NW swell, moving
into our waters by Friday. Seas up to 15 feet are likely, with 20
foot seas possible across the outer and northern waters. There
will likely be dangerous breaking waves on the central coast
through the weekend with dangerous conditions in near harbors.

South of point conception... The westerly swell will contribute to
continued hazardous conditions at the beaches through this weekend.

Beaches 19 1130 am...

central coast... A significant storm system in the gulf of alaska
has caused large swells to develop. These large northwest swells
will approach the central coast by Friday morning. A high surf
advisory has been issued valid for the central coast Friday
morning through Sunday morning. Surf will quickly rise to around
10 to 12 feet initially Friday mid morning. By Friday evening
through early Saturday, surf should increase to between 14 and 20
feet. Surf will then begin to lower through Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning, but remain above 10 feet. Some impacts from
these large and powerful waves and strong currents would be the
risk of ocean drowning. Also sneaker waves can suddenly overrun
previously dry beaches and jetties. With surf approaching 20 feet,
some low lying beach parking lots, harbor walkways and
campgrounds could see local coastal flooding during the peak of
the highest surf.

South of point conception... A fairly significant long period
south swell will continue to move across coastal waters through
this afternoon and evening, bringing elevated surf between 3 and 6
feet for south facing beaches. However, gusty west winds are
forecast to develop across the ventura coast and the short period
wind waves could pile up to the surf zone causing local sets to 7
feet this afternoon and evening. There is high confidence of
strong rip currents during this period. A beach hazards statement
remains in effect through this evening.

The large northwest swell forecast to bring very large surf to the
central coast should filter some of the energy into the southern
california bight allowing for higher surf potential by this
weekend. Confidence is high at least another beach hazards
statement will be needed or possibly a high surf advisory if surf
is expected to be higher. Will continue to monitor the situation.

Fire weather 19 315 pm.

A weakening cold front will move through the region bringing a
slight chance of rain showers or drizzle to many areas overnight
into Friday morning. The main impact will be increasing northwest
winds with and behind the front which will bring elevated fire
danger to many areas Friday into Friday night. The strongest winds
tonight through Friday night will be focused across the
mountains, antelope valley, central coast, and santa barbara
county south coast where gusts between 40 and 50 mph will be
common. Humidites are not expected to be sufficiently low during
this time to warrant any red flag warnings.

Northerly flow on Saturday and Saturday night is expected to
bring a warming and drying trend along with elevated fire danger
to the region. The strongest winds during this period will remain
focused across the mountains, especially the interstate 5 corridor
and santa ynez mountains where gusts between 40 and 50 mph can be
expected. A fire weather watch has been issued accordingly for
the mountains beginning Saturday.

From Sunday through Tuesday, there is the potential for a
prolonged duration of gusty santa ana winds hot and very dry
conditions. The strongest santa ana winds during this period is
expected to be Monday through Tuesday when gusts between 35 and 50
mph will be possible across wind prone passes and canyons of los
angeles and ventura counties. Record breaking triple digit heat
and humidities lowering into the single digits and lower teens
will be possible during this time. In addition, very warm and dry
conditions during the overnight hours in the mountains, foothills,
and wind prone areas will add to this fire weather threat during
this long duration of dangerous fire weather conditions. A fire
weather watch is in effect for the mountains and valleys of los
angeles and ventura counties Sunday through Tuesday, and may need
to be expanded into coastal areas as we draw closer to the event.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect from 6 am Friday to noon pdt
Sunday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Wind advisory in effect until 3 am pdt Friday for zones
39-52. (see laxnpwlox).

Excessive heat watch in effect from Monday morning through
Tuesday evening for zones 39>41-44>46-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

Beach hazards statement in effect through Sunday afternoon
for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Tuesday afternoon for zones 244>246-288-547-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning for zone 252. (see laxrfwlox).

Fire weather watch in effect from Saturday morning through
Tuesday afternoon for zones 253-254. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... Gale warning in effect from 3 pm to 9 pm pdt Friday for zone
645. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt Friday for
zones 650-655. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm pdt Friday
for zone 670. (see laxmwwlox).

Gale warning in effect from 3 pm Friday to 3 am pdt Saturday
for zones 670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt Friday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
hot temperatures and elevated fire weather conditions are
expected Sunday into early next week as another santa ana wind
event develops. Record heat is possible for Monday and Tuesday.

High surf and strong rip currents will linger along central coast
beaches Sunday.

Public... Mw
aviation... Sirard
marine... Rm rat
beaches... Rm rat
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... Hall
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi52 min N 2.9 G 7 69°F 1010.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi42 min W 18 G 21 66°F 65°F1012 hPa60°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 18 mi52 min 65°F6 ft
46251 44 mi61 min 66°F6 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi42 min NW 19 G 23 59°F 59°F1013.1 hPa57°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi29 minW 5 G 1810.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE8SE6W4SE9NE6W3CalmSE6NE4CalmNE4NE3SE4S64S6SW5SW4W15
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1 day agoSW4E8SE3W3CalmCalmNE5N6E5E4W3CalmCalmSE4SE8S6SE5S5S5E5E7SE6SE9SE9
2 days agoCalmNE6CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmE3W5CalmCalmSE7CalmNE4CalmNE5SW6CalmW7SE10SW3S10CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:38 AM PDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:57 AM PDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:21 PM PDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:42 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 PM PDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.71.81.21.11.52.43.54.55.25.55.24.33.11.90.90.40.51.123.13.94.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:34 AM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:49 AM PDT     5.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:12 PM PDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:14 PM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT     4.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.61.610.91.52.53.74.95.65.95.44.43.11.70.70.20.41.12.23.44.34.84.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.