Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday August 17, 2017 4:28 AM PDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:03AMMoonset 4:25PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 207 Am Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 207 Am Pdt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt...a 1027 mb surface high was about 750 nm west of eureka, california while a 1008 mb low was near yuma, arizona. Light to moderate west to northwest flow will continue across the coastal waters through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171021
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
321 am pdt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
After a little break this morning... Night through morning low
clouds and fog will continue through the period. Weaker onshore
breezes and a shallower marine layer will bring a few degrees of
warming through Saturday, even though temperatures will remain a
bit below normal in most areas. Another weak trough will develop
Sunday which will deepen the marine layer and cool temperatures.

Short term (tdy-sat)
the marine layer has collapsed and is trying to reform (and not very
successfully) the latest amdar sounding from klax show a weak
1400 ft marine layer capped by a very weak inversion. Gradients
continue to trend offshore. Currently there are some low clouds
along the central coast but skies south of pt conception are
clear. Some clouds are forming south of la county and by dawn
about a third of the la county coast will have stratus with just
a few patches of stratus along the malibu strip and the ventura
county coast. Hgts rise in the wake of the departing upper trof
and this along with the increased sunshine and offshore trends
will bring a decent warming trend to the area. Still temps will be
below normal everywhere except for the antelope vly and interior
of slo county.

The marine layer will be better organized tonight but it will be
fairly shallow so only expecting coastal low clouds with the vlys
remaining clear. The vlys and inland areas will see another degree
or two of warming Friday as hgts peak but the better marine layer
will knock a couple degrees from the coastal highs.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday as there are little to no
changes in the meteorological parameters.

Long term (sun-wed)
both the ec and the GFS agree that a trof will arrive on Sunday.

On Monday a cut off low will develop at the base of the trof to
the west of the area. This low will the spin in about the same
place through Tuesday and then move overhead Wednesday. Look for
the cyclonic flow of the trof upper low to lift the marine layer
deep into the vlys.

The temperature forecast is a little tricky as all guidance is
keep temps that seem a little too warm for such a deep marine
layer pattern. This might be explained by the gradients which are
only weakly onshore due to the sfc reflection of the upper low to
the west of the area. The weak gradients combined with hgts that
are not that low (588 dm) and the warm august sunshine may explain
the warmer MAX temps. Will hole with the guidance for now but if
the marine layer is more stubborn than fcst MAX temps could well
be 3 to 6 degrees cooler than fcst.

Aviation 17 1000z.

At 09z, the marine layer depth was around 1400 ft deep at klax.

The top of the marine inversion was around 2300 ft with a
temperature near 19 degrees celsius.

Low confidence in coastal terminal forecast... Moderate confidence
all remaining sites. At coastal terminals, there is a chance of
ifr to MVFR conditions through 18z, and again after 04z tonight.

The earliest arrival is likely for central coast terminals
tonight, later at coastal terminals south of point conception.

Klax... There is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
18z, and again after 06z tonight. Otherwise,VFR conditions will
likely persist throughout the period.

Kbur...VFR conditions are expected throughout the period, except
for a 20 percent chance of lifr to MVFR conditions between 13z and
16z.

Marine 17 300 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the forecast. Winds should remain
below small craft advisory levels through early next week. There
is a 40 percent chance of small craft advisory conditions
developing on Friday afternoon and evening across the southern
outer waters. There is 20 percent chance of small craft advisory
conditions across the santa barbara and san pedro channels each
afternoon and evening through the weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed)
no significant hazards expected.

Public... Rorke
aviation... Hall
marine... Hall
synopsis... B
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 6 63°F 1014.6 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi28 min SW 9.7 G 12 62°F 65°F1015 hPa (-0.0)59°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 18 mi58 min 66°F3 ft
46251 44 mi37 min 68°F4 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi28 min NW 16 G 19 61°F 61°F1014.5 hPa (-0.3)58°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi35 minNE 49.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4NE5CalmS4SE5S5S7SW5S7W7W9W10W10W6W6W3CalmCalmE3E4CalmNE3NE4
1 day agoNE5NE7NE4NE4CalmSW5SW7S7SW9SW8SW5W10W10W10W7W3CalmNE9E6E5E4N3NE4NE4
2 days agoE4SE3E3E4NE3CalmCalmSW4SW6W10W9W10SW7S5SE4SE5SE5CalmE4E3N4CalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
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Thu -- 01:11 AM PDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:46 AM PDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:19 PM PDT     2.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:25 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM PDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.30.91.72.53.23.63.73.53.12.72.42.52.93.64.65.466.25.84.93.62.2

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM PDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:23 PM PDT     2.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:24 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 PM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.30.81.62.53.23.63.73.53.12.72.42.42.83.64.55.35.96.15.74.83.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.