Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 4:57PM Monday November 12, 2018 5:24 PM PST (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:58AMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 212 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 30 kt. Western portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Combined seas 2 to 3 ft dominant period 16 seconds.
Tue..Eastern portion, ne winds 20 to 30 kt. Western portion, winds variable 10 kt or less. Combined seas 2 to 3 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 1 ft at 10 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 ft at 12 seconds. S swell 2 ft.
Wed night..Eastern portion, ne winds 15 to 20 kt becoming around 10 kt after midnight. Western portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 212 Pm Pst Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 22z...or 2 pm pst, a 1038 mb high pressure center was located over idaho. Gusty northeast winds will affect the southern coastal waters today and tomorrow, especially the nearshore waters south of santa barbara.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 130057
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
457 pm pst Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis 12 140 pm.

Moderate to locally strong santa ana winds will continue through
Tuesday. Lighter offshore winds are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. A switch to onshore and a return of the coastal marine
layer will be possible Friday into next weekend. A weather pattern
change is expected during thanksgiving week with the
possibilities for rain.

Short term (tdy-thu) 12 148 pm.

Strong santa ana event continues today and Tuesday with decreasing
winds expected Wednesday. Models predicting stronger surface
gradients Tuesday but weaker upper support so winds will likely be
5-10 mph weaker but still quite gusty with widespread single
digit humidities. So overall expect a pretty similar day Tuesday
as today. There's a chance that wind advisories may need to be
extended into Wednesday for some of the area currently covered
with an advisory or warning but will wait to see how things look
tomorrow before deciding on an extension. Ref flag warnings have
already been extended through Wednesday afternoon due to the
continued low humidities and enough wind to create critical fire
weather conditions.

Even Thursday there's still enough offshore gradient and winds
aloft to generate locally gusty winds at the surface but
definitely below advisory levels by that point.

There will be small warm up the next few days with high pressure
aloft pushing out the remaining cool air from the previous trough.

Overnight temps will continue to be quite chilly in wind protected
locations such as interior slo, the antelope valley, and in and
around ojai.

Long term (fri-mon) 12 157 pm.

Cooling to begin most areas Friday as a trough replaces the ridge
aloft and gradients turn weakly onshore. Much cooler air will move
in as well and drop daytime temps 5-10 degrees by the weekend.

Will likely see some marine layer stratus reforming as early as
Saturday morning but no later than Monday. Winds will be much
lighter during the period.

By Monday afternoon and night models showing an upper low
developing just west of the california coast with some moisture
with it. Very low confidence though as it's bumping into a ridge
of high pressure stretching from the pac NW southeast through az
so expect quite a few variations of this solution the next several
days. For now will just continue the cooling trend but keep the
forecast dry.

Aviation 13 0056z.

At 0030z at klax, there was no marine inversion.

Overall... High confidence in the tafs. Areas of smoke across the
region may cause MVFR vsbys at times, particularly from koxr
through klax. OtherwiseVFR conditions will prevail throughout
the forecast period.

Klax... High confidence in the taf.VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the forecast period. There is a 20% chance of MVFR
vsbys in smoke between 03z and 14z. There is a 20% chance of east
winds greater than eight knots 13 14z- 18z.

Kbur... High confidence in the taf.VFR conditions will prevail
throughout the forecast period. There is a 30% chance of llws.

Marine 12 143 pm.

For the outer waters... There will be local gusts to 25 knots
through Tuesday in the southern outer waters. Otherwise and
elsewhere, the winds will remain below SCA levels through
Thursday.

For the inner waters north of point conception... Conditions will
remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the inner waters south of point conception... Just updated the
coastal waters forecast to increase winds over the inner waters
south of point conception to speeds just below gale category.

There will be strong SCA level winds today, especially south of
rincon point and below passes and canyons. This includes the
waters out to catalina island where there may be hazardous swells
and gusty winds in and around avalon harbor. The SCA will likely
need to be extended through Tuesday.

Fire weather 12 338 pm.

Moderate to strong santa ana winds combined with single digit humidities
will continue to bring very critical fire weather conditions across much
of los angeles and ventura counties through Tuesday. During this time,
northeast winds gusting between 40 and 60 mph will be common across
wind favored areas. By Tuesday night and Wednesday, the offshore winds
are expected to diminish but will still see gusts in the 25 to 40 mph
range. These expected offshore winds in combination with persistent
single digit humidities has resulted in the extension of the red flag
warning through 5 pm Wednesday for ventura county, the los angeles county
mountains, santa monica mountains, santa clarita valley, and san fernando
valley. Winds are expected to be weaker across the los angeles coast and
san gabriel valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, so red flag warnings will
remain in effect through 5 pm Tuesday for these areas at this
time. Lax-daggett gradient peaked at -6.8 mb this morning, and is
expected to peak above -7 mb on Tuesday morning. A light
offshore wind influence will maintain dry conditions across
interior sections Thursday into Friday, maintaining elevated fire
weather conditions.

Fire weather conditions through santa barbara and san luis obispo
counties will be elevated through this period with plenty of dry air
along with pockets of gusty east winds expected.

If fire ignition occurs, conditions will be favorable for very rapid fire
spread and extreme fire behavior including long range spotting,
especially today into Tuesday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Wind advisory in effect until 5 pm pst Tuesday for zones
40-41-44-45-88-547. (see laxnpwlox).

High wind warning in effect until 5 pm pst Tuesday for zones
46-53-54. (see laxnpwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 5 pm pst Wednesday for zones
240-244>246-253-254-288-547. (see laxrfwlox).

Red flag warning in effect until 5 pm pst Tuesday for zones
241-548. (see laxrfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (thu-mon)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Mw
aviation... Db
marine... Sweet
fire... Gomberg
synopsis... B
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi48 min W 1.9 G 2.9 71°F 1024.2 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi34 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 65°F2 ft1024.3 hPa61°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 18 mi33 min 64°F2 ft
46251 44 mi24 min 65°F2 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi34 min 3.9 G 3.9 3 ft1024 hPa

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi31 minW 510.00 miFair65°F33°F31%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmW3SW3SW4W75W6W7W6W5
1 day agoCalmNE3NE5NE5N4NE3CalmCalmNE4NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS434SW5S5S3W4W4
2 days agoNW5NW3N3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS43SW5SW6SW6W8W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.