Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerland, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:12PM Thursday March 21, 2019 3:35 PM PDT (22:35 UTC) Moonrise 8:13PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 219 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening...
Tonight..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt in the evening becoming 15 to 20 kt. Eastern portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt or less. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 12 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 25 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt becoming variable 10 kt or less after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 11 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers.
PZZ600 219 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pdt...a 1023 mb surface high was about 600 nm southwest of los angeles while a 1010 mb surface low was centered over nevada. This general pattern will persist through Saturday


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerland, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 212125
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
225 pm pdt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis 21 1249 pm.

Shower activity will end today through most of the region, with
lingering showers possible in the mountains tonight. Clouds
increase Friday as another storm system brings a chance of rain north
of point conception Friday night. Rain and snow are possible in
the mountains Saturday. Below normal temperatures are expected
through the rest of the week.

Short term (tdy-sun) 21 214 pm.

Pretty active little weather system coming through today. The main
action now is in la county but radars show some small pockets of
showers further west, mainly over higher terrain. There have been
some brief heavy downpours and even a couple of lightning strikes
in la county but cells are moving pretty quickly so no significant
issues are expected. Showers will be rapidly winding down this
evening as more stable air moves in.

A dry and slightly warmer day on tap Friday as a little ridge
moves in. Models still show quite a bit of lower level moisture
around in the morning so expecting a fair amount of stratus,
though maybe not real solid as the inversion is pretty weak in
most areas. Could be some dense fog over parts of interior slo
county early Friday.

The next system will start pushing in early Saturday. This one
still seems to stay mostly north of pt conception as most of the
energy will be deflected to the north due to the previous ridge.

But most areas will see plenty of clouds through the morning and
early afternoon hours before drier northwest flow kicks in. Rain
amounts for northern areas expected to be a quarter inch or less
in most areas but locally up to a half inch in the slo county
coastal hills.

Dry and warmer Sunday with light offshore flow and weak ridging
aloft.

Long term (mon-thu) 21 224 pm.

Another trough tries to push onshore Monday. The models are still
at odds as to how far south the moisture will reach with the ecmwf
still favoring the ridge and keeping everything north. There are
enough ensemble solutions to at least go with a chance of rain for
northern areas Monday and Monday night but dry conditions expected
south of pt conception.

Models follow that up with another trough late Tue wed. Here again
best chances northern areas but this one has a better chance of
reaching la county, especially if the latest ECMWF is correct. A
vast majority of GFS ensembles keep it dry at least for la county
but certainly worth a chance of rain at this point given the
pattern.

Thursday looks dry for now but enough variations in the ensembles
to keep a slight chance of rain going for now until there's a
better model consensus.

Aviation 21 1759z.

At 17z, there was no marine layer or inversion at klax.

Moderate confidence inVFR sct-bkn050 common through 02z, with
MVFR bkn025 common under -shra. After 03z, moderate confidence in
vfr conditions common. There is a small chance of ifr lifr post-
rain fg br around 12z Friday in random locations, with the
highest chance at kprb.

Klax... Moderate confidence in -shra at times, andVFR cigs
common, except for MVFR CIGS under some showers. Moderate
confidence in timing + - 2 hours. Moderate confidence inVFR
conditions tonight.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in -shra at times, andVFR cigs
common, except for MVFR CIGS under some showers. Moderate
confidence in timing + - 2 hours. Moderate confidence inVFR
conditions tonight, but there is a 10 percent chance if ifr lifr
post-rain fg br around 12z Friday.

Marine 21 117 pm.

Moderate confidence in no thunderstorms today, but showers will
persist through the day. Gusty west to northwest winds will
increase this afternoon and evening south of point conception,
with a 60 percent chance of reaching small craft advisory (sca)
strength, especially beyond 20 miles from the coast. These winds
will also generate choppy seas on top of the long period west to
northwest swell. Similar conditions are likely on Friday, with
another chance for SCA conditions south of point conception.

Northwest winds will increase some on Saturday with SCA likely off
the central coast, and a large long period northwest swell
building in.

Beaches 21 414 am.

A relatively large, long period west-northwest swell will slowly
subside today and surf should decrease below high surf advisory
levels by late afternoon. Another long period west-northwest swell
could bring high surf to area beaches again late Sat and sun.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 3 pm pdt this afternoon
for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pdt this evening
for zones 650-655-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu)
High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected over the
weekend.

Public... Mw
aviation... Kittell
marine... Kittell
beaches... Db
synopsis... Phillips
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 5 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 11 55°F 1019.7 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 17 mi35 min W 9.7 G 12 56°F 57°F1020.3 hPa (-0.9)53°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 18 mi44 min 56°F4 ft
46251 44 mi35 min 58°F6 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 47 mi35 min 12 G 18 1020 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA12 mi42 minWSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F48°F74%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
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W12W8W8W8NW64W5CalmNE3W3CalmCalmCalmE3N7
G24
SE5E3SE7S8SE7SW9W12
1 day agoSE11E11E14SE6NW5NE7NE4CalmCalmNE3E3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmSW7W11W13
G18
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2 days agoW5SW7W7W4W4W3CalmCalmE4E5NE4E5NE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE7S4SE6SE10SE14SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.