Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Santa Barbara, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:14PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 5:28 PM PST (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:43AMMoonset 6:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 214 Pm Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 8 to 11 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 15 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds, building to 7 to 10 ft at 19 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Combined seas 8 to 11 ft.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 214 Pm Pst Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 1 pm pst...a 1024 mb high was located 400 nm sw of point conception. A 1017 mb low was centered in northern mexico. A large, long period nw swell will affect the waters tonight through Wed night. An even larger nw swell may affect the waters Thu through Sat.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Santa Barbara, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 162351
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
351 pm pst Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Quiet and seasonal weather through mid day Thursday before a
storm system will spread the possibility of precipitation from the
northwest in the afternoon and evening, then spreading into all
areas by early Friday. A few lingering showers and low snow levels
expected through early Saturday. Cool and dry conditions expected
through the remainder of the weekend. Potential for periods of
additional rain early next week.

Short term (tdy-fri)
high clouds continue to stream in off the pacific but these are
expected to thin out somewhat by Wednesday as a high pressure
ridge builds over the state. At the same increasing surface
pressures over the great basin following a weak trough passage
there will generate a weak santa ana situation Wednesday with
lax-dag gradients around -3mb. Not much upper support but the
gradient alone should be enough for some 15-25mph northeast gusts
across the la ventura valleys and mountains. And if we do in fact
get significant thinning of the high clouds then the combo of
increased solar radiation and offshore flow should push
temperatures up several degrees in most areas, into the low to mid
80s for the valleys and close to 80 for the la ventura coast. Not
quite as warm elsewhere but still 5-10 degrees above normal.

An abrupt reversal of those conditions expected Thu as the ridge
breaks down and gradients turn onshore. Expecting coast valley
highs to drop 5-10 degrees Thu as a trough approaches from the
west. May even see some patchy marine lyr clouds developing near
the coast. A cold front well out ahead of the upper level trough
will move into northwest slo county Thu night and pass through
the remainder of the area Friday morning. Because the front is so
far out ahead of the trough it will be weakening rapidly with
virtually no southerly flow ahead of it. So this doesn't bode
particularly well for widespread measurable precip, especially
south of pt conception, including the montecito area and the rest
of thomas fire perimeter. If anything does fall during that time
it will be very light, even up north.

The trough itself is pretty dynamic and in most winters it likely
would produce a decent amount of precipitation. But with the
moisture so far ahead of it the trough won't have much to work
with Friday into Friday night except some decent dynamics aloft
and a lot of cold air. So we'll likely see some showers, mainly
north and over the mountains Fri fri night with snow levels
dropping to maybe 3500', but again minimal amounts and
accumulations (less than a quarter inch rain and 2" of snow).

We'll start seeing west northwest winds increasing rapidly behind
the front Friday and Friday night with advisory level winds
possible.

Long term (sat-tue)
losing hope for precip chances next week. The 12z ECMWF joined
the previous few GFS runs at weakening the system early next week.

The GFS still shows a lot of mid high level moisture in what looks
like a warm-frontal pattern late Sunday through Tuesday but limits
the precip to just extreme northern slo county at best. The ec
doesn't even show this so the trends aren't looking good for
precip at least through wed. The GFS still shows a decent looking
trough for next Thu but at the same time the ec shows a building
ridge over the west coast so low confidence for any precip next
week. Temperatures will start off pretty cool early in the week as
the area slowly rebounds from the cold system this Friday then
slowly climb to near normal by mid week.

Aviation 16 2340z.

At 2330z at klax, there marine layer was around 500 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2900 ft with a temperature of
18c.

High confidence with valley and desert tafs remainingVFR through
period. Lower confidence with coastal tafs as there remains doubt
about marine clouds returning tonight due to a weak offshore push.

For now, will continue with ifr CIGS at klax and klgb, but 30
percent chance that no CIGS could return. Otherwise a 20 percent
chance of ifr CIGS returning to other coastal TAF locations
tonight. There is high probability of lifr CIGS at kprb late
tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Klax... Low confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 30 percent
chance of no CIGS returning to klax tonight... However high
confidence that vsbys will be at least in MVFR category due
to haze.

Kbur... High confidence in cavu taf.

Marine 16 200 pm.

For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Seas
will remain above small craft advisory (sca) levels thru Wed night,
then may briefly fall below SCA levels for a 6-12 hour period late
wed night and early thu. Then, seas will build thu, increasing thru
at least fri, with wave heights of 18 to 20 ft possible, with high
seas continuing into early next week.

Winds will be near SCA levels today and tonight, especially across
the southern two thirds of the outer waters. SCA level winds are
likely across the entire outer waters Fri thru sat, possibly
beginning as early as Thu night.

For the northern inner waters, high confidence in the forecast.

Sca conditions for hazardous seas will continue thru Wed night.

After slightly subsiding, seas will build to SCA levels again thu
and Thu night, with high seas continuing into early next week. Sca
level winds are expected Fri through sat.

For the waters south of point conception, winds will remain below
sca levels thru thu. Seas could get close to SCA levels later today
and tonight across western portions of the sba channel and western
portions of the southern inner waters. Even larger seas are expected
thu night thru sat. SCA level winds are expected Fri thru sat.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 6 am pst Thursday for
zones 34-35-40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 am
pst Thursday for zones 645-670. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Thursday for
zones 673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue)
possible winter weather issues for the i-5 near the grapevine
late Friday and gusty winds across parts of the area.

Public... Mw
aviation... Gomberg
marine... Sweet
synopsis... Jll
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 2 mi53 min E 5.1 G 7 61°F 1019.3 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 12 mi29 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 58°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 22 mi29 min 61°F6 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 41 mi29 min 23 G 27 57°F
46251 45 mi29 min 61°F7 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA6 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair63°F48°F60%1019 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA24 mi54 minW 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5W6CalmNE4CalmCalmW4CalmNW3E5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmS4S4SE5S5SE5SE5E5Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN3CalmW3CalmCalmE3CalmNW4W3CalmSE7SE5S43SW7W8W4W4
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N3W4CalmS5S4E4SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:19 AM PST     2.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:04 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:40 AM PST     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:50 PM PST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:33 PM PST     3.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.42.22.32.73.34.24.95.45.55.14.22.91.50.3-0.4-0.6-0.30.41.32.333.43.4

Tide / Current Tables for Rincon Island, Mussel Shoals, California
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Rincon Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:20 AM PST     2.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM PST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:03 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM PST     5.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:44 PM PST     -0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:18 PM PST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:12 PM PST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.52.22.32.73.54.45.25.75.85.24.22.81.40.2-0.5-0.7-0.20.61.72.73.43.73.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.