Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 8:44 PM   Moonset 6:28 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 620 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight - .
Today - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 2 to 4 ft dominant period 9 seconds, building to 4 to 5 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Tonight - Western portion, W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt late. Eastern portion. W winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt late. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft dominant period 8 seconds after midnight. Thu - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, W winds 5 to 10 kt becoming 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 4 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds in the afternoon. Thu night - Western portion, W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt becoming nw 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Fri - Western portion, W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 8 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft dominant period 8 seconds in the afternoon. Fri night - W to nw winds 20 to 30 kt with local gusts to 35 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds.Sat - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt early, becoming 20 to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft.Sun - W to nw winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft.

PZZ600 620 Am Pdt Wed Apr 24 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1025 mb high was centered 800 nm W of san francisco. A 1006 mb low was centered just south of las vegas.

FXUS66 KLOX 241318 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 618 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
24/233 AM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will maintain much cooler than normal temperatures across much of Southwest California through at least Friday. Areas of night through morning low clouds with patchy fog and drizzle are expected across the coast, valleys, and foothills, with only partial afternoon clearing. Warmer weather is expected by the weekend into early next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...24/311 AM.

The next three days will be all about how the marine layer low cloud pattern develops and dissipates each night and morning.
Synoptically a broad upper trof will move over the area today followed by fast NW flow Thursday and then a fast moving inside slider on Friday. The onshore flow will weaken each day with diurnal afternoon maxes to the east about 8 mb today, 7 tomorrow and 6 on Friday. The corresponding push to the north will be 2, then 1 with Friday's gradient switching to about a mb offshore.

The one thing to watch today is the trof that the mdls are not impressed with. Satellite shows a slightly stronger looking system that has even produced a lightning strike in the last two hours. That said it looks like the bulk of this trof's energy is going to pass to the south.

Low clouds currently cover most of the csts/vlys with a notable exception of the SBA south coast and the VTA coast. The low clouds will likely move over the VTA coast but expect the SBA south cst to remain clear. The capping inversion is very weak and this combined with the deep marine layer should result in decent coastal clearing for the coasts and partly cloudy skies due to strata cu formation in the vlys. With similar cloud condition as ydy the lower hgts from the approaching trof should bring a few degrees of cooling to most areas. Max temps today across the csts/vlys will be in the 60s or 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

The trof moving over the area late this afternoon and evening should deepen the marine layer again there will be enough lift to produce some patchy evening drizzle. With the offshore trends esp from the north there should be decent clearing Thursday afternoon.
The csts/vlys will respond to the additional sunshine and weaker sea breeze with 1 to 3 degrees of warming but residual cool air from the trof will cool the interior 3 to 5 degrees.

On Thursday evening/Friday morning the lift from the inside slider should somewhat counter act the offshore trends in the sfc gradients and bring low clouds to much of the csts/vlys but it does look like the the VTA and South SBA csts will be clear. Some north flow will bring clouds to the north slopes near the Kern County line. The NW-N flow from the inside slider will bring near advisory level winds to the northern LA mtns and portions of the Antelope Vly. The developing offshore flow from the north should bring total clearing. The offshore flow form the north, plenty of sunshine will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to most areas. Max temps will still mostly be 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/319 AM.

Xtnd mdls and ensembles are all in good agreement that weather will take decidedly clearer and warmer turn for the weekend and Monday. A ridge will move into and over the state hgts will reach about 578 dam Sunday and might hit 580 dam on Monday. There will only be weak onshore flow to the east and 2 to 4 mb of offshore flow from the N. Skies should be clear through the period. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees each day. Monday's Max temps will be in the 70s and lower 80s or a few degrees above normal.

The ridge is forceast to break down on Tuesday and onshore flow will increase. There might be some patchy low clouds in the morning. Max temps will cool a few degrees.

AVIATION
24/1316Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 4100 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4800 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

There were areas of low clouds from the coastal slopes to the beaches, but with a weakening inversion, clouds were breaking up.
In general, cigs were mostly high MVFR to VFR, except IFR to VLIFR in the foothills/mtns. Skies should clear in most areas by late morning, but there may be some stratocu in the valleys/foothills in the afternoon. Expect widespread clouds tonight from the coastal slopes southward/westward, with generally high MVFR to VFR cigs, except IFR to VLIFR conds in the foothills/mtns.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conds should be mostly VFR thru the period, though there should be some cigs at VFR levels this morning, and again this eve thru Thu morning. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs 08Z-16Z Thu. No east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Conds should be mostly VFR thru the period, though there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs thru 18Z this morning, and after 08Z tonight.

MARINE
24/607 AM.

In the Outer Waters, good confidence that winds will reach Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels in the southern two zones (PZZ673/676)
this afternoon thru late tonight, with a 30% chance in the northern zone. SCA conds are expected Thu afternoon thru Sun. There is a 50-60% chance of gales late Thu afternoon thru Sat.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in the forecast. There is a 20% chance of SCA level NW winds this afternoon/eve. SCA level winds are likely in the afternoon/eve hours Thu-Sun. There is a 30% chance of gales Fri afternoon/eve.

In the Inner Waters S Pt Conception, moderate confidence. SCA conds are likely in western portions of the SBA Channel during the afternoon/eve hours today and Thu, with a 30% chance of SCA conds from Anacapa Island to Malibu. SCA conds are likely in the SBA Channel and much of the southern inner waters during the afternoon thru late night hours Fri-Sun. There is a 30% chance of gales in the western SBA Channel and near Anacapa Island Fri afternoon/eve.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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