Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Isla Vista, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 4:54PM Saturday November 17, 2018 9:07 AM PST (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 1:54AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 857 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..E winds 5 to 12 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Chance of rain.
PZZ600 857 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z...or 8 am pst, a 1017 mb high 200 nm south of point conception was producing weak onshore flow across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isla Vista, CA
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location: 34.4, -119.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 171239
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
439 am pst Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis 17 333 am.

Onshore flow will bring areas of low clouds and fog to coastal
and valley areas this morning, and cooler weather to the entire
region today. Temperatures will be near normal in most areas
Sunday. A brief period of offshore flow may bring some warming on
Monday. Cooler weather is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday, with
below normal temperatures for the rest of the week. A couple of
upper level troughs moving into the west coast could bring some
rain to portions of the region at times Wednesday into Friday.

Short term (tdy-mon) 17 402 am.

As expected, gradients have become onshore, both in the w-e and
s-n directions for the first time in over a week. Low clouds have
pushed into all coastal areas this morning, and into the lower
valley areas of l.A. And vtu counties. There was some locally
dense fog in the valleys and across coastal sections of sba and
slo counties, but do not think it will become widespread enough
to require advisories. Otherwise, there will be plenty of high
clouds across the region today, keeping skies partly cloudy once
the low clouds burn off. Models do show plenty of moisture
near the coast this afternoon, so it is quite possible that clouds
will linger at this beaches through the day. Expect a few degrees
of cooling in most areas today.

Even if low clouds clear everywhere today, they will likely push
into coastal areas fairly early tonight. Low level gradients turn
weakly offshore late tonight, and models show somewhat less
inland penetration of low clouds tonight. Still expect widespread
low clouds in all coastal areas and probably at least the lower
valleys tonight. Expect faster clearing of the low clouds on
Sunday, although there will be plenty of high clouds across the
region. Height rises and weak offshore flow may help to induce
slight warming on Sunday, especially if the high clouds thin out
enough.

Gradients will become increasingly offshore Sunday night and early
mon, probably enough to produce some locally gusty winds across
portions of l.A. And vtu counties. At this point, do not expect
winds to get even close to advisory levels. All models show an
upper low approaching the region from the west Mon afternoon,
which should be centered about 300 miles SW of pt. Conception late
in the day. There should be a good amount of high and possibly mid
level clouds across the region on mon, but all models keep any
rain south and west of the forecast area. This makes sense,
especially given the offshore flow which will cause downsloping
and drying of the lower levels of the atmosphere. MAX temps will
be tricky on mon. Heights and thicknesses fall in the afternoon,
but offshore flow should offset this. In fact, there could even be
some warming on mon, but only if mid and high level clouds are
not too thick.

Long term (tue-fri) 17 438 am.

The upper low will pass to the south of the region Mon night and
tue morning. All models keep any rain to the south of the region
mon night and Tuesday morning. Mostly cloudy skies Mon night
should give way to partly cloudy conditions on tue. Falling
heights and thicknesses, along with a return to onshore flow
should bring some cooling to most areas on tue.

Lots of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Tue as models continue
to disagree with each other and change from run to run with the
timing and strength of a couple of fast moving systems pushing
into the west coast. A broad trough will move into the eastern
pacific Tue night and early wed. The ec is significantly stronger
with this system, and brings rain to areas north of pt.

Conception Wed morning, with rain possibly spreading southward
into l.A. County late Wed into Wed night. Both the ec and the gfs
keep moist broadly cyclonic flow across the region thu, with a
slight chance of rain or showers, especially north of pt.

Conception. Another trough will swing into the pac NW on fri, and
while most of the rain should remain north of the region, there
should still be a slight chance of rain or showers across the
region into fri.

At this point, the threat of any heavy rain looks minimal through
fri. However, the ec does show some decent moisture and lift wed
afternoon into early Wed night, so that threat can not be ruled
out entirely. As we get closer to this event, details on the
timing of any rain, rainfall amounts, and the potential threat of
heavier rainfall should come into sharper focus. Temperatures
will likely be below normal across the region Wed thru fri.

Aviation 17 1103z.

At 0912z, the marine layer was 1600 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was at 3100 feet with a temperature of 16c.

N of point conception... Moderate confidence with 12z coastal tafs
with lifr ifr CIGS expected through 17-19z. 30% chance for CIGS to
linger a few more hours past 19z. Higher confidence forVFR conds
at kprb. Ifr CIGS are expected to redevelop after 06z this
evening.

S of point conception... Moderate confidence for lifr ifr conds
with vlifr conds at kbur through 15z before coming ifr. 40% chance
that CIGS could linger a few hours past 12z tafs. Lower confidence
for CIGS to make it into the valleys due to offshore flow
increasing.

Klax... Moderate confidence with ifr CIGS through 16z then 50%
chance to rise to MVFR CIGS through 20z. There is a 20 percent
chc of 1 2sm sm fg 12z-15z. There is a 20 percent chc of east
winds 8-9kt.

Kbur... Moderate confidence with vlifr CIGS through 14z. Then
rising to ifr categories here is a 20 percent chc of vlifr cigs
will persist past 14z to 16z. Moderate confidence that stratus
will stay out of the terminal late tonight into Sunday.

Marine 17 202 am.

High confidence in winds staying below small craft advisory (sca)
through at least Tuesday. Patchy dense fog will be possible
anywhere through this weekend.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
No significant hazards expected.

Public... Db
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan
synopsis... Db
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 8 mi91 min N 5.1 G 5.1 56°F 1017.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 10 mi27 min ESE 3.9 G 7.8 62°F 65°F1018 hPa59°F
46217 - Anacapa Passage, CA (111) 27 mi46 min 64°F3 ft
46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA 35 mi27 min 5.8 G 9.7 1017.2 hPa
HRVC1 44 mi37 min 64°F 1017.4 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 44 mi67 min SSE 8.9 G 15 58°F 1017.1 hPa (+0.9)
46251 47 mi37 min 65°F4 ft

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara Municipal Airport, CA3 mi74 minNE 55.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze60°F55°F84%1017.1 hPa
Santa Ynez, Santa Ynez Airport, CA19 mi72 minN 010.00 miFair46°F33°F62%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from SBA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5S6S64SW53S3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmE3NE4NE5E3NE5NE5
1 day agoSE7SW5W7SW6SW9W9W9W5N4NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSW5SW5SW7SW9W10W11W8W9W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Gaviota, California
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Gaviota
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:55 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:27 AM PST     4.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:28 PM PST     2.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:06 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:56 PM PST     3.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.92.73.54.14.44.44.13.52.92.42.12.12.42.83.33.73.83.73.22.51.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.