Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harkers Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:22PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:18 AM EST (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 3:20AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 330 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, except 1 ft near shore. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight. Scattered showers, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds, increasing to 10 seconds after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough. Showers.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC
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location: 34.4, -76.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 170900
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
400 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge in from the north today. The high pushes
offshore tonight with a weak cold front pushing across the area
Friday. A much stronger cold front will approach from the west
Saturday and move through Sunday. Arctic high pressure will build
in from the west early next week.

Near term through today
As of 4 am thu... Sct cirrus streaming through E nc early this
morning as WAA aloft commences. This doing little to prohibit
good radiational cooling with temps generally in the upr 20s to
near 30 interior to mid upr 30s beaches.

High pressure ridges in from the north today, then slides
offshore late in the day as a mid level shortwave and weak front
approach from the west. Will see increasing and lowering clouds
through the day but it will remain dry until late in the day
when a few showers will be approaching far western zones. Sfc
winds will generally remain NE today, and slowly veer E to se
late in the day but remain very light. Highs range from the
mid upr 40s NRN tier and nobx to the low mid 50s southern
zones.

Short term tonight
As of 4 am thu... Progressive shortwave will slide quickly east
this evening, though sfc forcing will be very weak. With little
in the way of return flow in the low levels, thinking that the
advertised QPF from the meso models are accurate in forecasting
no more than sct showers. The emcwf appears much too bullish
with rainfall, so have discounted the wetter scenario. Have
advertised pops in the sct range northern 2 3 of the fa to only
iso for the southern portions. Any rain will be quite light and
no higher than a tenth of an inch or so. Temps will be much
milder with lows in the upr 30s most areas.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
As of 330 am Thursday... Mild temperatures are expected Friday
into Sunday, with wet weather Saturday night into Sunday. Then
it will turn sharply colder Sunday night and Monday as the
coldest air to date of this winter barrels into the area behind
a strong cold front. Another storm system approaches the region
on Wednesday but large timing differences exist.

Friday and Friday night... Showers associated with the Thursday
night system should be offshore by 12z Friday morning as drier
air quickly spreads back into the area. Cloud cover will also
decrease Friday with high pressure building back in from the
north. Highs across the region will be in the low 60s inland and
mid to upper 50s beaches, with lows upr 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday through Sunday... A longwave trough is forecast to dig
in to the four corners region Friday afternoon and help spur
more robust lee cyclogenesis once again across the southern
plains. Still strong agreement in the models on timing of a strong
cold front, which will be approaching from the west on Saturday
as a developing low center passes to the north. The forecast
area will get into warm sector on Saturday with highs upper 50s
to low 60s, models cont to point to mainly dry conditions
through Sat evening but are indicating the threat for a few
showers late Sat sat evening. Will remain warm Sunday just
ahead of the front with highs mainly 60 to 65. Mdls showing only
marginal (if any) sfc based instab ahead of the front so
keeping tsra out of fcst for now. With guidance continuing to
come into better agreement on this system will continue the
categorical pops for all areas Sunday with good band of shra
expected along and ahead of front. CAA advection is extreme late
Sunday Sunday evening and may very briefly see some snow mix in
with rain before ending NRN tier Sunday evening. Confidence in
this scenario is low.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Very cold air will surge in
Sunday night and cont thru Mon night. Lows Sun night will drop
into the upper teens inland to the upr 20s central SRN beaches.

Highs Monday will only be in the low mid 30s with many areas
staying below freezing. Gusty NW winds Sunday night and Mon will
produce wind chill temps in the teens late Sun night into early
mon. Cool high pressure remains in control through Mon night
with lows in the 20s. Mid level heights increase behind the
departing trough on Tuesday with forecast highs in the mid 40s
most spots.

The GFS and ECMWF are both hinting at yet another storm system with
similar genesis to the previous two approaching the carolinas
sometime at the end of the period, although some timing
differences exist in the models. Regardless, southerly low
level flow combined with continued ridging aloft should help
highs climb back into the upper 50s to around 60 wed.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Short term through tomorrow evening ...

as of 2 am thu..Expect some patchy and shallow MVFR to ocnl
ifr lifr fog to develop across inland locations, similar to the
last few nights, and last through 8 am or so. Best chnces for
the ifr will be kewn and kpgv. Today should see inc mid and high
clouds as fast moving system approaches from the west. Some sct
showers will dot the area this evening, and some MVFR CIGS are
possible for a time tonight. Winds will be light through the
period.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 330 am Thursday... A return toVFR is expected Friday into
Saturday with high pressure briefly building back over the
area. High confidence in sub-vfr conditions Sat night and Sunday
as a strong and moist cold front moves through the area from the
west with numerous showers. Gusty wsw winds thru early Sunday aftn
will shift to the NW late and remain gusty as intense cold
advection develops behind cold front Sunday night into mon.

Winds subsiding later Monday with conditions improving back to
vfr.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 4 am thu... Backdoor front has passed through the waters
with NE around 10-15 kt with gusts to near 20 kt at times. Ne
winds around 15 kt or less continue through today. Seas of 2-4
ft subside some tonight to 1-3 ft. Winds switch to the SW late
tonight ahead of fast moving weak frontal boundary, though
speeds will remain less than 15 kt.

Long term Friday through Monday ...

as of 330 am Thursday... Winds becoming wsw 10-15 kt with 2-3 ft
seas Fri as a surface low passes well to the n. High pres
builds in Sat morn with light e-ne winds then slides offshore
late with SE winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas mainly 2 to 3
feet sat. Strong SCA conditions to possibly low end gale develop sun
as ssw winds increase to 20 to 30 kts and gusty ahead of a
strong cold front with some gale force gusts. Winds will begin
to shift to W late Sun as front crosses with gale force NW winds
likely most waters Sun night as intense cold air advection
moves in behind front. Seas will build 10 to 14 feet Sunday in
the gusty ssw winds. Waves subside late Mon to 2 to 4 feet srn
waters but remain elevated AOA 6 ft for the cntrl and nrn
waters to end of period as winds slowly decrease to 15 to 20
kts SRN waters and 20 to 25 knots cntrl and NRN waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Tl
short term... Tl
long term... Jme ms
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Jme tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 16 mi78 min NNE 8 G 8.9 1025.2 hPa (+0.6)
41159 22 mi48 min 61°F2 ft
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi36 min NNE 6 G 7 41°F 50°F1025.4 hPa
41064 23 mi70 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 52°F 61°F1023.8 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi70 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 52°F 59°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi80 minENE 46.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW45W9SW11SW9SW10SW12SW11SW8SW6SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4
1 day agoN6N6N6N7N6N8N7NW8N8N9NW7NW8N10N6CalmCalmCalmNW7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN12N9N12
G19
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N13N12N9N10N8N9N9N7N7N5CalmCalmN4N8N7N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.