Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harkers Island, NC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 23, 2017 9:59 PM EDT (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 659 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms late this evening and overnight.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. Showers with a chance of tstms in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. NEar shore, seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming n. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harkers Island, NC
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location: 34.4, -76.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 232256
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
656 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight and
slowly move across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. High
pressure will build over the area Wednesday through Friday.

Another cold front will move across over the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 7 pm Monday... Convection still well to the west and
southwest early this evening. Current forecast looks on track.

No changes needed. Active period will be late evening through
overnight as negatively tilted deep upper trough will move in
from w-sw accompanied by a strong surface cold front. This will
result in a high shear low CAPE severe threat for area with
damaging wind gusts the main threat and an isolated tornado
possible. Instability will be limited until 11 pm-2 am when
lingering subsidence inversion near 800 mb will be eroded, which
will coincide with increasing southerly winds and srh.

Vorticity advection increases as models depict dampening
shortwave trough pivoting through the tn ohio valleys, and will
spur sfc cyclogenesis in the southern appalachians acting to
increase dynamics and strengthening southerly flow on 40-50 kt
llj. Dewpoints will be quite high in the 60s and would be
sufficient for marginal instability, and the combination of
significant wind shear and marginal instability will spell a
high shear low CAPE scenario for strong or severe storms.

Forecast soundings show mu CAPE values 500-1500 j kg, with 0-6km
bulk shear 35-45 kt. Any heavy showers or thunderstorms could
produce strong gusty winds due to momentum transfer to the sfc
from strong winds aloft. Periods of heavy rain will also be
possible with pwat values soaring to around 1.75". Mild
overnight with cloud cover, precip and southerly winds with lows
in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
As of 330 pm Monday... Cold front near coastal in morning will be
slow to move east rest of day as it becomes parallel to upper
flow and main threat of showers isolated tstms will be along and
east of hwy 17. Better dynamics will be north of area, thus not
expecting any additional severe threat during the day. Drying
behind front will result in decreasing clouds western sections
in afternoon. MAX temps mid 70s inland to near 80 coast.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 345 pm Monday... A strong cold front pushes offshore
Tuesday night with a shot of cooler air building in for mid to
late week. A surface low will move up the coast late this
weekend ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west
Sunday.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... The cold front pushes offshore
Tuesday night while a longwave upper trough remains centered
west of the region with a deep moisture feed continuing along
and just off the coast. Shower chances will continue across far
eastern portions of the fa with best chances across the pamlico
sound and outer banks. An embedded shortwave trough moves
through the upper trough Wednesday finally pushing the deeper
moisture farther offshore by late in the day. Temps will be
cooler with lows Tuesday night in the lower 50s inland to around
60 coast and high Wednesday generally in the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday night through Friday... The upper low finally exits off
the mid atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday with high
pressure building into the region bringing dry wnw flow. Temps
will be much cooler with highs in the mid 60s. High pressure
slides offshore Friday with return flow bringing gradually
warming temps with highs around 70s. Low temps fall back into
the 40s inland and low mid 50s beaches for Thursday Friday
mornings.

Saturday through Monday... The high moves offshore next weekend
with another highly amplified upper trough digging into the
eastern CONUS and surface cold front approaching from the west
and a low pressure area lifting north along or off the
southeast coast. Models still not in best agreement in the
details with the system but there will likely be another good
shot of precip and perhaps a period of stronger storms Sunday
as there will be increasing jet dynamics with a moisture feed
from the tropics into the region. Temps will likely be near to a
little above normal Saturday and Sunday. The system lifts north
by Monday with high building in from the west bringing a drier
and cooler airmass.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through 18z Tuesday ...

as of 7 pm Monday... A broken line of showers and storms is
expected to push through the terminals tonight, best chances
likely after 02 03z. Could see isolated severe storms with gusty
winds. Widespread MVFR conditions will likely develop late
tonight and early Tue morning. Showers tstms mainly near coast
Tuesday morning with kpgv and kiso improving toVFR by 15z. Se
to S winds will gust to around 20 kt through this evening.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 4 pm Monday... Shower chances continue along the coast
Tuesday night and Wednesday but should be east of the TAF sites
and predVFR conditions expected to prevail. High pressure
builds in mid to late week withVFR conditions prevailing,
although could see patchy early morning fog, especially Friday
and Saturday mornings when radiational cooling conditions will
be maximized. High pressure weakens across the area Saturday
with the next system approaching from the west and could see
isolated showers move into the region as moist southerly flow
increases ahead of a strong cold front.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 7 pm Monday... Marine zones in good shape. No changes
needed this evening. Latest guidance in good agreement and in
line with previous forecast of increasing southerly winds
tonight persisting into Tuesday ahead of strong cold front.

Winds 20-25 kts with gusts around 30 kt expected overnight most
waters, continuing mainly outer southern and central waters
Tuesday. Seas will build to 6-8 feet by late evening and peak at
7-10 feet late Tuesday.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday ...

as of 415 pm Monday... The cold front pushes through the region
Tuesday night with S SW winds 15-25 kt during the evening,
becoming W NW around 10-15 kt late and continuing through
Wednesday. Seas around 5-11 ft Tuesday evening gradually subside
overnight to around 4-6 ft Wednesday. Gradients tighten some
Wednesday night into Thursday and the upper trough axis swings
through and expect NW winds around 10-20 kt with seas continuing
around 4-6 ft. By late Thursday expect winds to diminish to
below 15 kt with seas dropping below SCA criteria. Light
southerly winds around 5-10 kt expected Friday with seas around
2-4 ft. High pressure centered across the region Friday into
Saturday bring light E NE winds generally 10 kt or less with
seas continuing around 2-4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Tuesday for amz135.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 6 pm edt
Tuesday for amz130-131.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for amz156.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Thursday for amz150.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Wednesday for amz158.

Synopsis... Jbm
near term... Hsa jbm
short term... Jbm
long term... Sk
aviation... Hsa jbm sk
marine... Hsa jbm sk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 16 mi59 min SSE 24 G 27 75°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.5)
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi41 min S 19 G 23 75°F 74°F1013.6 hPa
41064 23 mi51 min S 23 G 31 78°F 1013.3 hPa
41063 44 mi59 min S 25 G 31 79°F 1014.1 hPa (-2.5)
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 49 mi51 min S 21 G 29 78°F 76°F1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beaufort Smith Field, NC23 mi2 hrsSSE 15 G 275.00 miRain Fog/Mist73°F72°F96%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from MRH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3NE4NE3E4SE4SE4SE4SE4E4E5SE5SE7SE9S11SE10
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1 day agoNE4NE5NE4NE3NE4NE4CalmNE5NE5NE5NE5NE6NE7NE6NE7E6E63E5E6E5CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE54NE63SE7E7E5E4CalmNE3NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout Bight, North Carolina
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Cape Lookout Bight
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:58 AM EDT     4.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:18 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
321.20.70.71.11.92.944.74.94.743.121.20.80.81.21.92.83.53.83.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Lookout (ocean), North Carolina
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Cape Lookout (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:27 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:53 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:13 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.710.60.611.72.63.544.243.42.51.710.70.71.11.82.533.23.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.